报告共计：26页 Robotaxi行业发展核心总结 Robotaxi是依托L4/L5级自动驾驶技术的无人共享出行服务，通过传感器、人工智能算法等技术实现全自主驾驶，具备安全、低成本等优 势，是高阶智能驾驶的重要落地场景。全球范围内，中东政策支持下商业化落地迅速，欧洲受益于人口老龄化趋势潜力较大，亚洲地区 北上广深等城市已启动服务，迪拜、东南亚等地加速推进。 今天分享的是：Robotaxi行业深度：商业化进展、竞争格局、产业链及相关公司深度梳理 国内Robotaxi发展优势显著，在成本控制、基础设施、数据丰富度和资源复用方面领先海外。政策层面，多部门构建闭环监管体系，地 方持续放开牌照与运营区域，为商业化提供制度保障。技术上，算法成熟度提升，智驾套件成本大幅下降，车规芯片、激光雷达等核心 硬件快速迭代，国产芯片与激光雷达企业市占率逐步提升。成本驱动方面，Robotaxi通过取消人力成本重构商业模式，随着规模化运营 推进，有望提供更具竞争力的出行价格。 当前行业处于试点阶段，中美双极驱动格局确立。美国以Waymo、特斯拉为主导，中国则由萝卜快跑、小马智行、文远知行领跑，第二 梯队加速追赶。商业模式上，普遍采用"智 ...

Core Viewpoint - Momenta stands out in the autonomous driving industry by effectively balancing cost, regulatory compliance, and technological capabilities, making it a preferred choice for traditional automakers [2][17]. Group 1: Competitive Landscape - Companies that offer cheaper solutions than Momenta lack the capability for global deployment, primarily serving local markets with limited regulatory compliance [3][4][5]. - Competitors like DJI and Qingtong Zhixing provide low-cost solutions but are restricted to domestic new forces and have not completed necessary testing for international standards [6][7]. Group 2: Technological Offerings - Momenta's strategy involves treating regulatory scenarios as part of its model training set, allowing for efficient updates and compliance across different markets [7][8]. - Unlike competitors that bundle their solutions with proprietary hardware, Momenta offers a flexible delivery model that includes algorithms, middleware, and reference hardware, allowing automakers to choose their preferred components [11]. Group 3: Market Positioning - Companies claiming superior technology often overlook the L2+ market, focusing instead on L4 solutions, which may not align with the cost and production needs of traditional automakers [12][13][14]. - Momenta effectively distills L4 algorithms into L2+ capabilities, allowing it to generate revenue from mass production while simultaneously building a data advantage for future L4 developments [15]. Group 4: Risk Management - Traditional automakers prioritize safety and accountability, and Momenta addresses these concerns by implementing features that allow for decision traceability and cloud-based alerts for critical scenarios [16][17].

Core Insights - The 2026 industry trend update focuses on AI computing hardware, edge AI, physical AI (autonomous driving, robotics, brain-computer interfaces), AI large models and applications, and commercial aerospace [2][6][8] - The CES 2026 event in Las Vegas highlighted a shift from traditional consumer hardware to AI infrastructure and industrial intelligence, covering various sectors including artificial intelligence, robotics, automotive technology, digital health, and quantum technology [2][7][18] Market Performance - The A-share market has continued its upward trend into 2026, driven by significant net inflows of financing, with a total of 857.8 billion yuan in the first four trading days of January [3][4][8] - The average guarantee ratio of margin trading has increased due to rising stock prices, indicating strong market confidence [3][8] Industry Trends - AI computing hardware advancements include NVIDIA's launch of the next-generation Rubin computing platform, which integrates various components for enhanced performance and cost efficiency [9][21][24] - Edge AI is gaining traction with products like ByteDance's "Doubao" AI glasses entering the market, indicating a shift towards productization in consumer electronics [10][11] - Physical AI developments include NVIDIA's Alpamayo autonomous driving ecosystem, which aims to enhance vehicle decision-making capabilities through multi-step reasoning [12][34][36] Funding and Investment - Significant net inflows in financing have been observed, while ETF redemptions have occurred, indicating a mixed sentiment in the investment landscape [4][8] - Meta's acquisition of AI startup Manus for over $2 billion reflects a strategic move to enhance its AI capabilities and address application gaps [4][14] Valuation Metrics - The overall valuation level of A-shares has increased, with the Wind All A Index PE (TTM) at 18.15, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical levels [4][8] Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on cyclical and technology sectors, particularly in the context of the upcoming spring market dynamics and annual report previews [3][8] - Key sectors to watch include power equipment, machinery, non-bank financials, electronics, and basic chemicals, with an emphasis on AI hardware, robotics, and AI applications [8][12]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong government has issued six pilot licenses for autonomous vehicles starting in 2024 to promote the development of related technologies in the region [1] - The first approved company has over ten years of experience in autonomous driving research and development, with testing set to begin in late 2024 in North Lantau, expanding to other areas like Cyberport and Kai Tak Development [1] - The total safe driving mileage achieved so far exceeds 80,000 kilometers, demonstrating significant progress in handling complex road conditions [1] Group 1 - The Transport Department has reported that the testing project has been running smoothly, achieving four major technological advancements: simultaneous operation of multiple vehicles, non-commercial passenger transport, expanded testing range, and increased speed limits [2] - The autonomous vehicle fleet has grown from a single vehicle to ten operating simultaneously, with speed limits on some test routes increased to 50 kilometers per hour [2] - The six pilot licenses issued cover a total of 62 autonomous private cars and minibuses, with plans to gradually move towards a "driverless" phase, retaining only remote backup operators [2]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has disclosed that five companies have recently obtained approval for overseas issuance and listing or full circulation of unlisted shares in China, all targeting the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and are in the process of secondary applications [1] Group 1: Company Summaries - Stone Technology, once known as a "sweeping broom" in the A-share market, saw its stock price peak at 1494.99 yuan per share in June 2021, with a market capitalization of 99.266 billion yuan, but has since decreased to a total market value of 42.361 billion yuan, representing a decline of over 50%. The company plans to issue no more than 33.108 million shares [1] - Haizhi Technology, an AI application company founded by former Baidu executives and backed by Hillhouse Capital, focuses on products like the Atlas mapping solution and Atlas intelligent agents. It intends to issue no more than 47.5846 million shares and convert 372 million shares held by shareholders into H-shares [1] - Yushi Technology specializes in L4-level autonomous driving technology, with investors including Innovation Works. The company plans to issue no more than 18.9142 million shares and convert 112 million shares held by shareholders into H-shares [1] - Deshi Biotech aims to become the first company to launch a medical imaging large model, planning to issue no more than 31.004 million shares and convert 80.88 million shares held by shareholders into H-shares [1] - Shangmi Technology, a provider of commercial IoT (BIoT) solutions with shareholders including Ant Group, Meituan, and Xiaomi, plans to issue no more than 46.004 million shares and convert 261 million shares held by shareholders into H-shares [1]

Core Insights - The autonomous driving industry is experiencing significant turbulence, with companies like Maomao Zhixing facing collapse despite strong backing and funding, while others like Zhuoyu Technology secure substantial investments [2] - The competitive landscape has shifted from rule-driven to data-driven models, emphasizing the importance of rapid iteration and efficiency in development cycles [3][4] Company Developments - Zhuoyu Technology announced a strategic investment exceeding 3.6 billion yuan from China FAW, highlighting its growth amidst industry challenges [2] - The founder of Zhuoyu, Shen Shaojie, noted that the company's model iteration cycle has been reduced to weekly updates, significantly improving project delivery times from six months to just over one month [3] Industry Trends - Companies that fail to transition to a data-driven development paradigm are at risk of being eliminated from the market [4][5] - The core competitive factor in the intelligent driving sector is the ability to integrate data-driven approaches with traditional manufacturing processes [5] Transformation Challenges - Transitioning to a data-driven model has been challenging for teams traditionally focused on rule-based systems, as exemplified by Zhuoyu's decision to delete its original codebase [6] - The company has shifted its safety protocols from relying on numerous rules to a comprehensive evaluation system, emphasizing data quality over quantity [6] Engineering and Operational Changes - The integration of data-driven methodologies into all aspects of operations is crucial for the success of intelligent driving solutions [7] - Zhuoyu's engineering processes have evolved, with a focus on maintaining a disciplined approach to problem-solving without adding rules that could complicate models [10] Future Outlook - The competition in the intelligent driving industry is expected to intensify, with significant breakthroughs anticipated in 2026 [10][11] - Zhuoyu aims to expand its technology across various vehicle models and scenarios, leveraging a "base model" strategy that allows for customization by automotive manufacturers [13]

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 英伟达创始人黄仁勋在CES开展首日，接受全球媒体QA。 根据《财讯》双周刊报导，针对这波记忆体缺货，黄仁勋强调，这次HBM4不是「景气循环」的缺 货，而是结构性改变，而英伟达不但不会被动卷入缺货，更是这波「结构性缺货下的全球大买家，而 且不是只跟封装厂、板卡厂拿货，而是直接跟所有HBM供应商协同规划。」 黄仁勋很早就前往南韩三星巩固此一产能，他非常有信心的说：「我们(英伟达)是第一个HBM4的使 用者，而且这一段时间内，几乎只有我们在用。」他说，所有HBM制造商都在为英伟达扩产。 他认为，HBM4这种高频宽记忆体，贴近GPU的工作量训练、推理与储存需求，已跟传统IT市场完全 不同，此一需求已经不可替代。 至于英伟达刚刚发表的自驾车新平台「Alpamayo」，也引发特斯拉执行长马斯克立马透过公开社群 淡定回应：「这件事情，特斯拉早就在做，不会因为这样失眠。」 黄仁勋对此也分析与特斯拉的平台两者有所不同，他先称赞特斯拉的无人驾驶平台(FSD)是世界级的 解决方案，FSD是特斯拉车端的自驾系统，是前装(Front-end)车用市场，由自己搜集资料、自行训练 与部署。 ...

Core Insights - The autonomous driving industry is experiencing a pivotal moment at CES 2026 after years of volatility, with significant technological advancements and a shift towards practical applications [2][54] - The competition is intensifying among major players, including Nvidia, Tesla, Qualcomm, Mobileye, and various Chinese companies, each pursuing different technological and business strategies [4][10][18] Group 1: Nvidia's Role - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang introduced the open-source autonomous driving model Alpamayo, which is described as a "ChatGPT moment for physical AI," emphasizing the importance of sensor fusion in autonomous driving [4][7] - The competition between Nvidia and Tesla highlights a broader industry debate between vision-based and sensor-based approaches to autonomous driving [7][8] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Qualcomm is collaborating with Leap Motor to create an integrated solution that combines cockpit, driving assistance, and vehicle control systems, showcasing a shift towards multi-domain control [10][14] - Mobileye is advancing its L3 solutions in partnership with Audi and is testing a prototype that allows drivers to close their eyes while driving, indicating significant progress in autonomous technology [16] Group 3: Chinese Companies' Innovations - Great Wall Motors is showcasing its ASL architecture, which aims to integrate AI capabilities into vehicles, with plans for ASL 1.0 to be implemented in the first half of the year [18][21] - Geely has announced its upgraded AI 2.0 technology system, which integrates driving, cockpit, and chassis systems, with plans to roll out L3 and L4 functionalities by the end of 2026 [27] Group 4: Market Trends and Business Models - The CES 2026 event indicates a lowering of entry barriers for new players in the autonomous driving sector, with a clear divergence in business models emerging [45][46] - Two primary paths are identified: one focusing on vertical market breakthroughs for profitability in closed environments, and the other targeting the Robotaxi market for broader expansion [51][54] Group 5: Future Outlook - The industry is moving beyond technical validation into commercial viability, with various applications like RoboBus and autonomous delivery vehicles beginning to emerge [51][54] - The next 12 months are critical for the autonomous driving sector, as it transitions into a phase where practical implementations will be tested and scaled [54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the commercialization of Robotaxi, particularly for domestic L4 companies expanding internationally [2]. Core Insights - The global shared mobility market is undergoing a critical transition from human-driven to automated services, with significant regional disparities [2]. - North America is characterized by a duopoly of Uber and Lyft, with regulatory barriers hindering the entry of Chinese Robotaxi companies [2][11]. - Europe faces fragmented regulations and a technological gap, creating opportunities for a hybrid model combining American platforms with Chinese technology [2][11]. - The Middle East presents a unique opportunity with high customer spending, strong policy support, and low energy costs, making it an ideal market for Chinese companies [2][11]. - Southeast Asia has a large but low-margin ride-hailing market, where Robotaxi may struggle to achieve cost-effectiveness in the short term [2][11]. Summary by Sections Global Robotaxi Market Overview - The report highlights the dual nature of regulatory policies in overseas markets, which generally support Robotaxi development while imposing strict safety and operational requirements [7]. North American Shared Mobility Market - The North American ride-hailing market is dominated by Uber and Lyft, with a significant regulatory barrier for non-local Robotaxi companies [11][39]. - The market has evolved into a dual monopoly, with Uber holding a 76% market share and Lyft 24% as of March 2024 [45]. - The report notes that Waymo has established a dominant position in the Robotaxi market, with a fleet of approximately 2,500 vehicles and a weekly order volume exceeding 250,000 [58][60]. European Shared Mobility Market - The European market is characterized by high competition and stringent regulatory requirements, making entry challenging for foreign companies [11]. Middle Eastern Shared Mobility Market - The Middle East is seen as a blue ocean for Robotaxi, with significant government support and a unique market structure that favors shared mobility [11]. Southeast Asian Shared Mobility Market - The report indicates that the Southeast Asian market is dominated by local players, and Robotaxi may not be economically viable in the short term due to low customer spending [11]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on the L4 RoboX industry chain, recommending investments in software and hardware companies, as well as downstream application and upstream supply chain players [2].

Core Viewpoint - Alphabet Inc. has surpassed Apple in market capitalization for the first time since 2019, although analysts view this as more anecdotal than a bullish market driver, with the company's stock price rising by a low single-digit percentage [1]. Group 1: Key Drivers - The current performance of Alphabet is driven by three main narratives: consumer AI chatbot powered by Gemini [2], AI chips driven by Ironwood TPU [3], and autonomous driving through Waymo [4]. Group 2: Gemini vs. ChatGPT - Gemini has shown a 30% growth in monthly active users (MAU) from August to November 2025, reaching 346 million, while ChatGPT only grew by 6% during the same period, with 810 million MAU [8][9]. - In December, traffic data indicated a 5.6% decline for ChatGPT, while Gemini's traffic increased by 28.4%, with average visit durations of 6 minutes 31 seconds for ChatGPT and 7 minutes 16 seconds for Gemini [8]. - Analysts estimate that if Gemini maintains its growth rate, it could potentially surpass ChatGPT in about 12 months [11]. Group 3: TPU and Market Dynamics - Alphabet's TPU is designed for inference tasks, reducing reliance on Nvidia GPUs, with significant cost advantages: a Google TPU cluster costs $99 million compared to $852 million for an equivalent Nvidia setup [15]. - However, analysts express skepticism about the TPU narrative due to energy efficiency concerns, as Nvidia's GPUs outperform Google's TPUs in this regard [18]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Sentiment - Alphabet's P/E ratios are competitive within the cloud services sector, with a Non-GAAP P/E of 30.58 for FY1, second only to Amazon [20]. - Analysts believe the optimistic sentiment is driven by Gemini's growing appeal against ChatGPT, positioning Alphabet as a key challenger in the consumer AI space [22]. - There are potential headline risks related to regulatory scrutiny, particularly concerning the acquisition of Wiz, which could impact market sentiment [23][26]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts are closely monitoring Gemini's user growth and the outcome of the Wiz acquisition decision by the European Commission, as these factors will influence Alphabet's valuation and market position [26]. - Alphabet is currently testing historical highs in market capitalization, indicating strong investor interest [27].