Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck market is expected to experience a "non-dull off-season" in 2025, with a projected total sales volume of approximately 1.05 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 16% [1] Summary by Category Sales Forecast - Total heavy truck sales for 2025 are estimated at around 1.05 million units, with domestic sales expected to reach approximately 730,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% [1] - Export sales are projected to be about 320,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 10% [1] Industry Outlook - The industry is anticipated to achieve high-quality growth driven by both domestic and international demand [1] - The profitability of leading companies in the heavy truck sector is expected to continue improving [1]

Key Points - The article highlights that June sales in the heavy truck industry exceeded expectations in terms of production, wholesale, terminal sales, and exports [2][11][28] - The industry is experiencing a structural shift with significant growth in new energy heavy trucks while natural gas heavy trucks are declining [2][39] Industry Overview - **Production and Sales**: In June, heavy truck production reached 98,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 16.9% and 28.0% respectively. Wholesale sales also reached 98,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 37.1% and a month-on-month increase of 10.2%. Terminal sales were 69,000 units, up 47.0% year-on-year and 9.7% month-on-month. Exports totaled 29,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.8% and a month-on-month increase of 10.5% [2][10][28] - **Inventory Levels**: The total industry inventory is currently at 144,000 units, which is considered a reasonable level. Channel inventory decreased by 60 units, while enterprise inventory increased by 10 units [2][29] Structural Changes - **New Energy Trucks**: Sales of new energy heavy trucks reached 18,000 units in June, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 159% and 19.3% respectively. The penetration rate for new energy trucks is now 25.9%, up 11.2% year-on-year [2][39] - **Natural Gas Trucks**: In contrast, sales of natural gas heavy trucks fell to 13,500 units, down 16.8% year-on-year and 3.5% month-on-month. The penetration rate for natural gas trucks is 19.5%, down 14.9% year-on-year [2][39] Market Share Dynamics - **Domestic Market Share**: As of June 2025, the market shares for major domestic manufacturers are as follows: Jiefang 19.8%, Dongfeng 21.1%, Heavy Truck 16.9%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 11.1%, and Foton 13.4%. Compared to the full year of 2024, Jiefang's share decreased by 3.9%, while Foton's increased by 3.0% [3][12] - **Export Market Share**: In terms of exports, the shares for Jiefang, Dongfeng, Heavy Truck, Shaanxi Heavy Truck, and Foton are 17.2%, 13.3%, 42.7%, 15.5%, and 7.3% respectively. Jiefang's share decreased by 1.9% compared to 2024, while Dongfeng's increased by 4.3% [3][57] Engine Market Dynamics - **Engine Market Share**: In June, the market shares for major engine manufacturers were as follows: Weichai 17.9%, Cummins 17.3%, Xichai 15.1%, Heavy Truck 9.2%, and Yuchai 13.9%. Weichai's share decreased by 9.6% compared to 2024 [4][65] - **Fuel Type Distribution**: Weichai's market share for diesel and natural gas engines is 15.4% and 49.0% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% for diesel and 10.4% for natural gas [4][72] Investment Recommendations - The article suggests a positive outlook for the heavy truck sector driven by the implementation of National IV policies. Recommended stocks include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group A/H and Weichai Power, with a focus on the performance improvement potential of Jiefang and Foton [5][78]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [62]. Core Views - June sales figures for the heavy truck industry exceeded expectations, with production, wholesale, and export volumes all showing positive growth [5][7]. - The market structure indicates a recovery in domestic sales for Foton, while Jiefang and Dongfeng saw an increase in export market share [6][39]. - The heavy truck segment is experiencing a significant increase in new energy vehicles, while natural gas truck sales are declining [7][28]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In June, wholesale sales of heavy trucks reached 98,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 37.1% and month-on-month growth of 10.2%, surpassing expectations [4][19]. - Terminal sales for June were 69,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 47.0% and a month-on-month increase of 9.7%, also exceeding expectations [4][15]. - Export sales in June were 29,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 23.8% and month-on-month growth of 10.5%, again surpassing expectations [4][19]. - The current total industry inventory stands at 144,000 units, with a slight decrease in channel inventory [20]. Market Structure Tracking - The market share for heavy truck manufacturers in June was as follows: Jiefang 19.8%, Dongfeng 21.1%, Heavy Truck 16.9%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 11.1%, and Foton 13.4% [6][37]. - In the export market, the shares were: Jiefang 17.2%, Dongfeng 13.3%, Heavy Truck 42.7%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 15.5%, and Foton 7.3% [6][39]. - The penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks reached 25.9%, with a significant year-on-year increase of 159% in sales [7][28]. Engine Market Structure - Weichai maintained the largest market share in the engine segment at 17.9%, although it saw a decline compared to previous periods [8][48]. - The market shares for natural gas engines were reported as follows: Weichai 49.0%, Cummins 19.6%, and others [55]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power, highlighting the potential for performance improvement in FAW Jiefang and Foton [57].

Group 1 - Shandong Heavy Industry Group reported a total revenue of 289.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and a total profit of 14.97 billion yuan, up 6.9%, leading the industry and ranking first among provincial enterprises [1] - The company sold 212,000 heavy trucks in the first half of the year, achieving a market share of 40.9%, maintaining its position as the global leader in heavy truck sales [1] - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, a subsidiary, secured the top position in the domestic heavy truck industry, achieving the highest sales in various segments such as express delivery, cold chain transportation, and containers [1] Group 2 - The sales of new energy heavy trucks surged by 242% year-on-year, positioning the company as the industry leader, with comprehensive coverage of new energy technology and six application scenarios [2] - The proportion of high-end products continued to rise, with the data center power generation business of Weichai growing by 664% year-on-year, and significant export orders for electric buses to regions including Europe, the Middle East, and the Americas [2] - The company emphasizes focusing on its core business and deepening innovation to establish a solid foundation for global leadership in the competitive equipment manufacturing industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant progress and potential of Zero One Auto in the new energy heavy truck and autonomous driving sectors, particularly following their recent 500 million RMB Series A financing round, which has revitalized the financing market [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Zero One Auto was established in 2022, focusing on end-to-end autonomous driving software and hardware technology, as well as self-developed new energy intelligent heavy truck technology [3]. - The company has launched multiple targeted derivative models since releasing two core products, "Jingzhe" and "Xiaoman," which feature self-developed electric drive bridges and tri-source heat pump systems [3]. - As of now, Zero One has delivered nearly 700 units of its two models, with total operational mileage exceeding 25 million kilometers, positioning it among the leading new energy heavy truck companies [3]. Group 2: Recent Developments - The recent financing round was led by prominent players in the autonomous driving sector, including Momenta, which indicates strong investor confidence in Zero One's business model and technology [1][3]. - The company has seen a remarkable 70% repurchase rate for its products in regions like Henan and Hebei, reflecting market recognition of its product quality and customer service [3]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Zero One is advancing the industry's first end-to-end and multi-modal large model autonomous driving technology, which simplifies the system and enhances the potential of autonomous driving [5]. - The company emphasizes a gradual approach to commercializing high-level autonomous driving, starting from minimal commercial scenarios and progressing to more complex environments [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Investors and industry experts express strong confidence in Zero One's future, with expectations of significant growth in both new energy trucks and autonomous driving technology [7]. - The company aims to close the sales gap with traditional heavy truck manufacturers by the end of the year and plans to expand its technological development and market penetration over the next three years [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that SANY Heavy Truck maintains its leading position in the competitive new energy heavy truck market, achieving significant sales growth and market share in the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In June 2025, SANY Heavy Truck sold 2,887 units, marking a 178% year-on-year increase, and secured the top position in monthly sales for the fourth time this year [1]. - For the first half of 2025, SANY Heavy Truck achieved cumulative sales of 12,900 units, representing a 168% increase compared to the same period last year [5]. - The overall new energy heavy truck market saw sales reach 79,200 units in the first half of 2025, a 186% increase year-on-year, with a market penetration rate exceeding 26% [6]. Group 2: Competitive Advantages - SANY Heavy Truck's success is attributed to its high-quality products and innovative direct sales and service model, which enhances customer trust and satisfaction [8][11]. - The company has established a robust after-sales service system, "Kasheng Direct Service 2.0," ensuring efficient and comprehensive support for customers [15]. - SANY Heavy Truck's strategy focuses on reducing costs and increasing efficiency for users, supported by a strong R&D team and significant investment in product development [8][11]. Group 3: Market Presence - SANY Heavy Truck leads in sales across major provinces, including Shanghai and Guangdong, with market shares of 19.75% and 15.84% respectively [10]. - The brand's products are well-received nationwide, with market shares exceeding 10% in several key provinces, indicating strong demand and acceptance [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - SANY Heavy Truck is positioned to continue driving industry transformation through technological innovation and a commitment to green logistics [16].

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund, China Europe Dividend Enjoyment Flexible Allocation Mixed A (004814), reported a profit of 359 million yuan in Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.1336 yuan, and a net asset value growth rate of 8.22% for the period [2] Fund Performance - As of July 18, the fund's unit net value was 1.905 yuan, with a three-month net value growth rate of 14.13%, ranking 16 out of 82 in its category [3] - The fund's six-month net value growth rate was 20.09%, ranking 6 out of 82, and the one-year growth rate was 22.31%, also ranking 6 out of 77 [3] - Over the past three years, the fund achieved a net value growth rate of 41.31%, ranking 2 out of 57 [3] - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was 0.7644, ranking 4 out of 57 [8] - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 19.38%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2020 at 19.96% [10] Fund Holdings and Strategy - As of June 30, the fund maintained an average stock position of 91.42% over the past three years, compared to the category average of 84.99% [13] - The fund's top ten holdings as of Q2 2025 included Zijin Mining, New China Life Insurance, China Life Insurance, China Ping An, Construction Bank, Zhongjin Gold, Ningbo Bank, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, China Gold International, and SANY Heavy Industry [17] - The fund manager expressed optimism about the stability and certainty of the Chinese economy, focusing on undervalued assets in both Hong Kong and A-shares, while also highlighting risks from Western debt and geopolitical conflicts [2]

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 19.8 times, at the historical 79th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.4 times, at the historical 59th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 33.9 times, at the historical 18th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 139.8 times, at the historical 99th percentile [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Power Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense, and Aviation [2][6] - The Passenger Vehicle industry has a PB valuation above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - The Shipping and Port industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - The price of polysilicon futures has risen by 8.2% to above 45,000 yuan, indicating a recovery in the market [2] - Battery cell prices increased by 7.7%, while prices for silicon wafers remained stable [2] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 1.0%, while iron ore prices rose by 3.2% [2] - The national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs decreased by 3.6%, while the wholesale price of pork increased by 0.3% [3] - Retail sales grew by 5.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with June's growth down to 4.8% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment grew by 7.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while narrow infrastructure investment grew by 4.6% [3] - The production of industrial robots increased by 35.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Technology TMT - The production of integrated circuits increased by 8.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Cyclicals - The price of Brent crude oil futures fell by 2.0% to $69.23 per barrel [3] - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 23.4%, reaching its highest level since September 2024 [3]

Group 1 - The performance of A-shares is expected to benefit from overseas expansion, which is a strong indicator of exceeding expectations in earnings [1] - The market is transitioning to seek new scenarios as the mid-year earnings forecast season comes to an end [2] - A-shares are anticipated to show a slight upward trend in July, supported by stable export conditions and potential breakthroughs in technology sectors [3] Group 2 - The domestic economic recovery path is becoming clearer, with factors such as anti-involution policies and the relative advantage of A-shares compared to other markets [2] - The equity market is likely to maintain a strong oscillating trend due to positive signals from domestic policies and improving earnings in certain sectors [4] - Key investment areas include technology growth sectors, traditional cyclical industries benefiting from policy changes, and financial sectors with high dividend yields [4]

Group 1 - The Chinese heavy truck market is showing significant signs of recovery in 2025 after experiencing a downturn, with cumulative sales of approximately 539,200 units in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of about 7% [1] - In June 2025, heavy truck sales reached 92,000 units, with actual registrations at 64,000 units, marking year-on-year growth of 29% and 36% respectively, achieving a continuous monthly increase since April [1] - The sustained growth in heavy truck sales is primarily driven by the accelerated effects of the "old-for-new" policy [1] Group 2 - There are 15 companies in the A-share market involved in the heavy truck business, with several companies such as Huichuan Technology, CIMC Vehicles, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, and Foton Motor receiving over 10 institutional research visits this year [1] - As of now, only six heavy truck concept stocks have released their half-year performance forecasts for 2025, with companies like Blue Ocean Huateng, Foton Motor, Teruid, and Wanliyang expected to achieve a year-on-year net profit growth exceeding 45% based on the lower limit of their profit forecasts [1]