Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished products continue to be strong. The cost side provides significant support for steel prices. With low inventory levels and supply - demand stimuli, the futures market is expected to strengthen. The market should focus on policy signals, terminal demand repair, and cost support [3]. - The short - term price fluctuations of various commodities are mainly driven by market sentiment and expectations. It is difficult to determine if the prices have reached a short - term peak. Speculators should be rational, and industrial players can consider hedging [9][13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3294 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.610%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2995 tons, and the main contract open interest decreased by 16348 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai changed differently. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3456 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.523%). The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 296 tons, and the main contract open interest increased by 12461 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai also had different changes [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost side supports steel prices. In the short term, supply - demand factors and low inventory levels are expected to drive the market up. The demand for rebar increased slightly this week, and inventory decreased, while the demand for hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, and inventory increased. The inventories of both are at a five - year low. The market should pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 811.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.12% (- 1.00), and the open interest decreased by 17104 lots to 56.28 million lots. The weighted open interest was 103.95 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 29.04 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.46% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Market Analysis**: Recent overseas iron ore shipments rebounded, with Brazil contributing the main increase. The near - end arrivals decreased. The daily average molten iron output was high but decreased slightly. Port and steel mill inventories increased slightly. The market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to demand and supply changes [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On July 24, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.17% at 5948 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5860 yuan/ton, with a premium of 102 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 1.34% at 5754 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, with a discount of 54 yuan/ton [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: The long - term fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are bearish, but short - term price fluctuations are dominated by market sentiment. It is recommended that speculators be rational, and industrial players can consider hedging [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Position Data**: On July 24, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 1.73% at 9690 yuan/ton. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China increased, with different basis relationships [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Industrial silicon still faces over - supply and insufficient demand. The short - term price may be affected by market sentiment, and there is a risk of a short - term peak [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China changed differently. The total inventory of national float glass decreased, and the short - term price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to avoid short positions. In the long term, the price trend depends on real estate policies and supply - demand balance [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but the medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction remains. It is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term and wait for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment cools down [16].

铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | | 宁夏#72 内蒙#72 | 5500 5500 | -50 0 | 300 250 | 5800 5850 | 主力合约 01合约 | 5754 5854 | -78 -62 | 272 308 | | 硅铁自然块 | | | | | | | | | | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5500 | 0 | 300 | 5830 | 05合约 | 5938 | -28 | 340 | | | 陕西#72 | 5500 | 0 | 350 | 5800 | 09合约 | 5754 | -78 | 272 | | | 陕西#75 | 5800 | 50 | 150 | | 主力月基差 | 46 | 28 | 28 | | 硅铁合格块 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in the ferroalloy futures market, particularly focusing on manganese silicon and silicon iron, during the first half of 2024, highlighting the driving factors behind these price movements and the subsequent market corrections. Group 1: Price Movements - Manganese silicon prices surged from a low of 6108 CNY/ton to a high of 9786 CNY/ton, marking a two-year peak due to supply disruptions caused by a cyclone affecting South32's operations [2] - Silicon iron prices increased from a minimum of 6402 CNY/ton to 8234 CNY/ton, with a significant daily limit increase at the end of May [3] Group 2: Driving Factors - Supply shock from South32's disruption led to panic in the market, prompting smelters to stockpile, which created a positive feedback loop of rising costs and prices [4] - The release of the "2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan" in late May triggered market speculation reminiscent of the 2021 "dual control of energy consumption" policy, further boosting market sentiment [6] Group 3: Market Characteristics - Trading volumes for manganese silicon and silicon iron futures reached record highs, with 3.16 million and 2.27 million contracts traded in a single day, respectively, indicating significant market activity [12] - The futures market exhibited a premium over the spot market, encouraging alloy producers to increase output, resulting in a 15% month-on-month rise in manganese silicon production from April to May [13] - Despite the price increases, the actual manganese ore supply gap was limited, with only a 10% shortfall in total imports, indicating that the price surge was driven more by market sentiment than by fundamental supply-demand dynamics [14] Group 4: Market Correction - In June, regulatory measures such as position limits and increased transaction fees were introduced to curb excessive speculation [16] - The supply of manganese ore improved with increased arrivals from South Africa and Gabon, leading to a rise in port inventories to 6.5 million tons, a 20% year-on-year increase [17] - Demand weakened as steel mills reduced production due to losses, causing manganese silicon prices to decline sharply from their late May highs back to around 5900 CNY/ton by September [19]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面冲高回落，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3274 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 33 元/吨，跌幅 1%，持仓减少 10.2 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格 | 偏强运行 | | | 下跌 20 元/吨至 3110 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 20 元/吨至 3340 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.09 万 | | | | 吨。据钢谷网数据，本周全国建材产量回落 1.18 万吨至 418.02 万吨，社库回升 7.98 万吨至 546.62 万吨， | | | | 厂库回落 25.17 万吨至 305.76 万吨，建材表需回升 39.45 万吨至 435.21 万吨。建材产量小幅回落，库存再 | | | | 次转降，表需回升，数据表现偏强。近期反内卷、大基建等政策面消息不断，在很大程度上提振市场情绪， | | | | 不过市场现实供需有所趋弱。预计短期螺纹盘面将转入震荡整理走势。 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bullish with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][5] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][7] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][8] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][12] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][12] - Coke: Bullish after the second price increase, with a trend strength of 1 [2][15] - Coking coal: Bullish due to supply policy constraints, with a trend strength of 1 [2][16] - Steam coal: Stabilizing with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][20] - Logs: Fluctuating with a neutral trend strength of 0 [2][24] Core Views - The report provides daily investment outlooks and trend strengths for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, steam coal, and logs. Analyses are based on fundamental data, macro and industry news [2][4][7] Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price Movement**: Futures closed at 812 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-1.34%); import and most domestic ore spot prices declined [5] - **Macro & Industry News**: The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [5] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Price Movement**: RB2510 closed at 3,274 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.31%); HC2510 closed at 3,438 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.20%) [8] - **Macro & Industry News**: In June, total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, up 5.4% year - on - year. A new round of ten key industries' stable growth work plans will be released soon. Weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand of steel products [9][10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Movement**: Futures prices of both declined, while spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased [12] - **Macro & Industry News**: On July 23, prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions increased. Some changes in production and procurement of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese occurred [13][14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Movement**: JM2509 closed at 1,135.5 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan/ton (8.30%); J2509 closed at 1,707.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.59%) [16] - **Price & Position**: Northern port coking coal quotes and CCI metallurgical coal index showed price changes. On July 23, there were changes in long and short positions of JM2509 and J2509 contracts [16][17][18] Steam Coal - **Price Movement**: ZC2507 had no trading on the previous day, previous opening was 931.6 yuan/ton, closing at 840 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton [21] - **Fundamentals**: Southern port and domestic origin quotes of steam coal were provided. On July 23, there were no changes in long and short positions of ZC2507 [22] Logs - **Price Movement**: There were declines in closing prices of 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts, with fluctuations in trading volume and open interest [25] - **Macro & Industry News**: The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is favorable, but the prices of finished products have slightly declined. In the short term, with the stimulation of eliminating excess production capacity on the supply side and the support of large - scale infrastructure on the demand side, and the current low inventory level, the futures market is expected to continue to strengthen. The significant increase in coal prices also provides good support for the prices of finished products. The market still needs to pay attention to policy signals, especially the policy trends of the Politburo meeting at the end of July, as well as the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support of the cost side for the prices of finished products [3]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the fundamental direction is still downward, with excess industrial pattern, marginal weakening of future demand, and potential downward adjustment of manganese ore and electricity prices. In the short term, the bullish sentiment of commodities dominates the price fluctuations of the futures market. It is recommended to rationally treat the current market in the speculative aspect and pay attention to price - fluctuation risks. The industrial side can consider hedging operations [10]. - For industrial silicon, it still faces problems of oversupply and insufficient effective demand. In the short term, the bullish sentiment of commodities dominates the price fluctuations. It is recommended that the speculative side rationally treat the current market, and the industrial side can carry out hedging operations [15]. - For glass, in the short term, it is boosted by macro - policies, and with continuous inventory reduction, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the long term, if there are substantial policies in the real estate sector, the futures price may continue to rise; otherwise, supply - side contraction is needed for significant price increases [17]. - For soda ash, in the short term, driven by market sentiment and the rising coal - chemical sector, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but in the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand contradiction still exists, and the upward space is limited [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Inventory**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3274 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (- 0.99%) from the previous trading day, with 86534 tons of registered warehouse receipts (no change from the previous day) and a position of 1.922698 million lots, down 101,809 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices of rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3438 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (- 1.12%), with 58951 tons of registered warehouse receipts, down 598 tons, and a position of 1.495321 million lots, down 87,124 lots. The Shanghai aggregated price of hot - rolled coils decreased by 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar, both supply and demand decreased, and inventory slightly accumulated; for hot - rolled coils, production decreased, demand slightly increased, and inventory decreased. The inventories of both rebar and hot - rolled coils are at the lowest levels in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Inventory**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 812.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.34% (- 11.00), and the position changed by - 39,963 lots to 579,900 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 1.0489 million lots. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 789 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 26.94 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.21% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The latest overseas iron ore shipments increased month - on - month. Australia's shipments continued to decline due to port maintenance, while those from Brazil and non - mainstream countries increased, with Brazil contributing the main increment. The near - end arrivals decreased month - on - month. The average daily hot - metal output was 242.44 tons, up 2.63 tons. Port inventories slightly increased, and steel mills' imported ore inventories were consumed [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position**: The main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 1.23% at 5938 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5860 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a premium of 112 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.72% at 5832 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a discount of 82 yuan/ton to the futures [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The fundamental direction is downward, with an excess industrial pattern, marginal weakening of future demand, and potential downward adjustment of manganese ore and electricity prices. In the short term, the bullish sentiment of commodities dominates the price fluctuations [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Position**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed down 1.35% at 9525 yuan/ton. The spot price of 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9750 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton, with a premium of 225 yuan/ton over the futures; the 421 was 10250 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton, with a discount of 75 yuan/ton to the futures [13]. - **Fundamentals**: It still faces problems of oversupply and insufficient effective demand. In the short term, the bullish sentiment of commodities dominates the price fluctuations [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China increased. As of July 17, 2025, the total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises was 64.939 million weight boxes, down 2.163 million weight boxes (- 3.22%) month - on - month and up 0.29% year - on - year. In the short term, it is boosted by macro - policies, and in the long term, it depends on real - estate policies and supply - side contraction [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was 1320 yuan, down 40 yuan. As of July 21, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda - ash manufacturers was 1.8842 million tons, down 21,400 tons (- 1.12%). In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but in the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand contradiction still exists [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, the latest prices of natural lumps in different regions (Ningxia 72 at 5300, Inner Mongolia 72 at 5300, etc.) and their daily and weekly changes are presented, along with prices of qualified lumps, trader prices, and export prices. The主力合约 price is 5874, with daily and weekly changes of 206 and 380 respectively [1]. - For silicon manganese, the latest prices of different grades in various regions (Inner Mongolia 6517 at 5700, etc.) and their daily and weekly changes are shown, along with prices of different contracts and spreads [1]. - Multiple price - related charts for silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including market prices, import/export prices, and basis prices [2][6] Supply - For silicon ferroalloy, data on production such as the output of 136 Chinese enterprises (monthly and weekly), and capacity utilization in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, etc.) are presented [4]. - For silicon manganese, the weekly production in China and the production of related enterprises are shown, along with the prices and supply - related information of raw materials like manganese ore [6] Demand - For silicon ferroalloy, demand - related data includes the production of crude steel in China (monthly estimated and actual), the production of stainless - steel crude steel, and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4]. - For silicon manganese, the demand in China (in ten thousand tons) and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group are provided [4][7] Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China and different regions (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, etc.), as well as warehouse receipt data and effective forecasts are presented [5]. - For silicon manganese, inventory - related data such as warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China are provided [7] Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, cost - related factors include electricity prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, etc.), the market price of blue charcoal, and the production cost and profit in different regions (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia) are calculated [5]. - For silicon manganese, the profit in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, etc.) and the profit after converting to the main contract are presented [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current supply - demand contradiction in the steel spot market is not significant. Demand shows some resilience despite being weak, and low inventory eases supply pressure. The cost increase drives up the steel price center, and low inventory also increases price elasticity. The steel price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and a bullish trading strategy is recommended, while paying attention to demand changes and supply - side policy implementation [27]. - In the coke market, there is a potential for four rounds of price increases, and additional increases depend on the situation of coking coal. In the coking coal market, the low - point of valuation within the year has been reached, and the future situation depends on the implementation of coal over - production policies and the impact of imported coal [56][69]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Demand and Inventory - **Rebar**: Affected by hot and rainy weather, rebar demand is weak, and the apparent demand has declined month - on - month. However, the demand is expected to improve month - on - month after August. Production remains at a relatively low level, inventory depletion has slowed down, and the absolute inventory value is still low, which supports the price [6]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Demand remains stable with some resilience. Production has declined from its high, and the inventory is also at a low level [9]. Iron Water Production - Steel mills are profitable, and with low overall inventory, the motivation for blast furnace production cuts is insufficient. Iron water production remains high, strongly supporting the demand for furnace materials. During the off - season, the negative feedback pressure in the market is small, and as the cost rises significantly, the steel price center gradually moves up. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies [11]. Industry Conditions - **Construction industry**: From January to June, real estate investment, sales area, and new construction area decreased by 11.2%, 3.5%, and 20.0% year - on - year respectively, remaining weak. Policy stimulus needs to be strengthened. Infrastructure investment continues to play a supporting role, but its growth rate has declined [17]. - **Manufacturing industry**: In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7, rising for two consecutive months but still below 50. With the PPI in the negative range for nearly 3 years, the "anti - involution" expectation has increased significantly. Recently, the prices of major industrial products have rebounded, which may stimulate restocking demand, but the actual performance remains to be seen [21]. Export - From January to June, China's cumulative steel exports reached 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In June, exports were 9.678 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%. Although exports face some pressure to decline due to tariff policies, the overall level will remain high due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets and the continued overseas demand [24]. Coke Market Market Contradiction - Currently, iron water production remains at an inverse - seasonal high and is expected to be sustainable. Since June, the cost of coking coal has soared, leading to a significant deterioration in coking plant profits, which are significantly lower than steel - making profits. As a result, there is a temporary shortage of coke supply [49]. Trade and Inventory - Even after two rounds of price increases, the current coke futures price shows a significant premium, which will stimulate trade demand. Port coke inventory has been decreasing, and there is potential for restocking. The continuous reduction of visible coke inventory provides motivation for price increases [51][54]. Market Outlook - Overall, the spot price of coke has increased for the second round. Considering the high - level and resilient iron water production and the poor profitability of coking enterprises, as well as the potential for restocking after the significant reduction of carbon element inventory, there is room for coke prices to continue to rise following the cost of coking coal. It is expected that there will be four rounds of price increases, and additional increases depend on the situation of coking coal [56]. Coking Coal Market Supply - Since July, some previously shut - down coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production, but overall production recovery is slow due to heavy rain and mine face changes. In Wuhai, Inner Mongolia, production recovery is limited due to environmental inspections, but it is expected to gradually increase as coal prices rebound. The suspension of Mongolian coal customs clearance during the Nadam Fair has led to a significant decline in port inventory, but the daily vehicle traffic at the Ganqimaodu port has returned to over a thousand, and imports are expected to increase [60][63]. Price and Market Outlook - The price of Mongolian coal has risen in resonance with the futures market. The narrowing price difference between domestic and foreign coal restricts the further rise of coking coal prices. The power coal price is under pressure as daily consumption peaks. Overall, the low - point of coking coal valuation within the year has been reached, and the future situation depends on the implementation of coal over - production policies and the impact of imported coal [62][65][69]. Ferroalloy Market Supply - After the price rebound, ferroalloy production has gradually increased, but at a relatively slow rate, indicating a rational production side. Attention should be paid to whether the supply will expand rapidly to an oversupply situation if the futures price continues to rise [78].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the content [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The US-EU trade negotiation has reached a deadlock, with the US setting an August 1st deadline for a new trade agreement, and the EU considering "nuclear option" countermeasures [5][20][21] - For specific commodities, the report provides trend predictions such as gold's upward oscillation, silver's upward breakthrough, and copper's price supported by inventory reduction [12][18][21] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Propylene - On July 22, 2025, the listing benchmark price of the first batch of propylene futures contracts was 6350 yuan/ton. Considering the spread and delivery costs, the recommended strategy is to buy the 02 contract of propylene and short the 01 contract of PP [6] Glass - In the short term, the glass market is slightly bullish but overvalued. The market has rebounded due to policy expectations and reduced short positions. However, the high premium of futures contracts over spot prices may lead to market fluctuations. As the market approaches August, the delivery logic may favor short positions [9] Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through upward [12][18] - **Copper**: Copper price is supported by inventory reduction, with both domestic and international copper inventories decreasing [21] - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [12][24] - **Lead**: The price of lead is supported by supply - demand contradictions [12][27] - **Tin**: The price of tin is weakening [12][29] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate upward, alumina has a short - term strong sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [12][33] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's upward potential is limited by reality despite positive macro - sentiment, and stainless steel's trend is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment with fundamentals determining its elasticity [12][36] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: With potential supply reduction and positive macro - sentiment, the short - term trend may remain strong [12][41] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's position is decreasing, making the market resistant to decline; polysilicon requires attention to component sales [12][45] Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it is in a bullish oscillation [12][48] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][50][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate**: Market sentiment is strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][55] Energy - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to oscillate upward [12][59][60] - **Steam Coal**: With the recovery of daily consumption, the market is stabilizing with an oscillating trend [12][63] Others - **Log**: The log market is oscillating repeatedly [66]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished products are showing a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The upcoming release of the stable - growth work plans for ten key industries and the construction of the Medog Hydropower Station are expected to boost the demand for building materials, and the market is expected to strengthen due to the low inventory level [3]. - In the short term, with the support of fundamentals and positive market sentiment, iron ore prices may remain strong, but risk control is needed after increased volatility [6]. - For manganese - silicon and silicon - iron, in the context of high volatility and no obvious trend, it is recommended to wait and see. The fundamental logic still points downward, but the current positive market sentiment may affect prices [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term upward trend continues, but it still faces the problems of over - supply and insufficient demand. It is recommended that speculators be rational and industrial players consider hedging [14][15]. - For glass, in the short term, it is boosted by macro - policies and inventory reduction. Long - term price trends depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments. It is recommended to avoid short positions [17]. - For soda ash, it is temporarily strong due to market sentiment, but there are still supply - demand contradictions in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term and wait for opportunities to go short after the sentiment cools down [18]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton (2.446%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 897 tons, and the main - contract positions increased by 20,122 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,394 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton (2.537%), with a decrease of 293 tons in registered warehouse receipts and an increase of 4,222 lots in main - contract positions [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply - demand of rebar both decreased, and inventory slightly accumulated. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased, demand slightly increased, and inventory decreased. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are at a five - year low. The market is affected by policies and terminal demand, and attention should be paid to policy signals and demand recovery [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 809.00 yuan/ton, up 3.06% (+24.00), with a decrease of 29,220 lots in positions to 663,400 lots. The weighted positions were 1,120,900 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 25.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.06% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Overseas iron - ore shipments increased overall, with a decline in Australia and an increase in Brazil and non - mainstream countries. The near - end arrivals decreased. The daily average pig - iron output increased, and port inventories slightly increased while steel - mill inventories decreased [6]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Prices and Trends**: The manganese - silicon main contract (SM509) closed up 1.90% at 5,914 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract (SF509) closed up 2.90% at 5,668 yuan/ton. The manganese - silicon is still in a rebound trend, and the silicon - iron shows a wide - range shock [9][10]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is recommended to wait and see due to high volatility and no obvious trend. The fundamental logic still points downward, with over - supply, weakening demand, and potential cost reduction [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Trends**: The main contract (SI2509) closed up 6.50% at 9,260 yuan/ton. The short - term upward trend continues, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 9,700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: It still faces over - supply and insufficient demand. It is recommended that speculators be rational and industrial players consider hedging [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China increased. The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises decreased. It is boosted by policies and inventory reduction in the short term. Long - term trends depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments. It is recommended to avoid short positions [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The demand is still weak, and the supply is relatively loose in the medium term. It is temporarily strong due to market sentiment, and it is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term and wait for opportunities to go short after the sentiment cools down [18].