铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | | 宁夏#72 内蒙#72 | 5130 5150 | 0 -30 | 0 0 | 5430 5500 | 主力合约 01合约 | 5474 5474 | 38 38 | 96 152 | | 硅铁自然块 | | | | | | | | | | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5150 | 0 | 0 | 5480 | 05合约 | 5510 | 20 | 82 | | | 陕西#72 | 5150 | 0 | 50 | 5450 | 09合约 | 5616 | 16 | 74 | | | 陕西#75 | 5800 | 0 | -300 | | 主力月基差 | -44 | -38 | -96 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | ...

黑色建材日报 2025-10-22 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3047 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 2 元/吨（0.065%）。当日注册仓单 129796 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 199.5833 万手，环比减少 10093 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3110 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3219 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.124%）。 当日注册仓单 113657 吨, 环比减少 2375 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 21 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5474 | 38 | 96 | 178926 | 44234 | 208602 | -11015 | | SM主力合约 | 5746 | 8 | 8 | 160346 | 7360 | 369062 | -8772 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5250 | -30 | 0 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5680 | -20 | 30 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 5230 | 0 | 30 | 硅锰6517宁夏 | 5580 | -20 | -20 | | 72%FeSi青海 | 5250 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on October 21, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5130, with no daily or weekly change; the factory - price converted to the futures price was 5430, and the main contract price was 5436, with a daily increase of 6 and a weekly increase of 30 [2]. - The export price of Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1060 US dollars, with no daily change but a weekly increase of 25 [2]. - For silicon manganese, the factory - price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese was 5700, with a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 50; the main contract price was 5738, with a daily increase of 20 and a weekly decrease of 8 [2]. Supply - The monthly production of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, with the production volume fluctuating over time [5]. - The weekly production of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China (with a capacity share of 95%) from 2021 - 2025 is also shown, and the capacity utilization rate of these enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi varies monthly [5]. - The weekly production of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 is provided, and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon manganese 6517 also change monthly [7]. Demand - The estimated monthly production of crude steel in China from 2021 - 2025 is given, which reflects the demand for ferroalloys in the steel - making industry [5]. - The demand for silicon manganese in China (according to the Steel Union's caliber) from 2021 - 2025 is shown, with the demand volume gradually increasing [8]. Inventory - The weekly inventory of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 is presented, and the inventory levels vary in different regions and over time [6]. - The daily inventory - related data of silicon manganese, including the total number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, from 2021 - 2025 are provided, along with the inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises in China (weekly, in tons) [6][8]. Cost and Profit - The electricity prices of ferroalloys in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 are shown, which are important cost factors for ferroalloy production [6]. - The market price of semi - coke small materials in Shaanxi, the starting rate of semi - coke in China, and the production profit of semi - coke in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, which are related to the cost of silicon ferroalloy production [6]. - The production cost, profit converted to the main futures contract, and spot profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 are provided, and the profit situation of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and other regions from 2021 - 2025 is also shown [6][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of a gradually loosening macro - environment, the medium - to - long - term trend of steel prices remains unchanged. In the short - term, the weak demand for steel is difficult to improve significantly, and attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to factors such as a decline in steel mill profits, an increase in port inventories, and weak terminal demand. The ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at 760 - 765 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities rather than shorting. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [9][10]. - Industrial silicon prices are affected by supply pressure and follow the commodity environment, with short - term consolidation. Polysilicon prices are in a phased correction within the shock range, with support at 48000 yuan/ton [13][15]. - Glass prices are expected to maintain a weak shock trend due to high inventory and weak demand. Soda ash prices are expected to continue a weak and stable shock operation due to a loose supply - demand pattern [18][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3045 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.263%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 147,655 tons, and the main contract open interest increased by 1,609 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices remained unchanged. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3215 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.343%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2,379 tons, and the main contract open interest increased by 7,152 lots. The Lechang spot price increased by 20 yuan/ton, while the Shanghai price remained unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - Macroscopically, the Fourth Plenary Session is expected to guide the economic development in the next five years. Fundamentally, rebar production decreased slightly, and post - holiday demand led to a slight reduction in inventory, but overall demand recovery was insufficient. Hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, demand increased after the holiday, but inventory remained high, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar continued to narrow [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 767.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.52% (- 4.00). The open interest increased by 10,158 lots to 555,600 lots. The weighted open interest was 926,800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.83 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.24% [4]. Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipment volume rebounded, with increases in Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries. The near - end arrival volume decreased. - Demand: The average daily hot metal output decreased by 0.59 tons to 240.95 tons. Some blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance due to profit decline, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline. - Overall: The iron ore price is under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at 760 - 765 yuan/ton [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On October 20, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.35% at 5738 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 190 yuan/ton. - The ferrosilicon main contract (SF601) closed up 0.11% at 5436 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 164 yuan/ton [7][8]. Strategy Views - Current factors such as high hot metal levels and inventory pressure on the plate side are mostly priced in. Macro factors such as important meetings will be more important. - For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon may be driven by the manganese ore end, and ferrosilicon is likely to follow the black sector's trend [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2511) closed at 8565 yuan/ton, up 1.60% (+ 135). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 14,328 lots to 427,791 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 remained unchanged at 9300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 735 yuan/ton. - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2511) closed at 50340 yuan/ton, down 3.82% (- 2000). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 23,629 lots to 253,316 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of 2460 yuan/ton [12][14]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: Supply pressure exists, and it is expected to consolidate in the short - term, following the commodity environment. - Polysilicon: It is in a phased correction within the shock range, with support at 48000 yuan/ton [13][15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 1147 yuan/ton, up 1.59% (+ 18). The North China large - plate price decreased by 30 yuan, and the Central China price remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 145.16 million cases (+ 2.31%). - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1235 yuan/ton, up 0.24% (+ 3). The Shahe heavy - soda price remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 4.07 million tons (+ 2.31%) [17][19]. Strategy Views - Glass: Due to high inventory and weak demand, it is expected to maintain a weak shock trend. - Soda ash: Due to a loose supply - demand pattern, it is expected to continue a weak and stable shock operation [18][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to operate at a low level with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled and rebar [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore will operate within a range, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures between 760 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of approximately 103 - 107 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: In the short term, the supply of coking coal and coke increases while the demand decreases, but they are still at a relatively high level. The price should be treated with cautious optimism [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon remains loose, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. The alloy prices are expected to be under pressure and operate weakly [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From October 10 to October 17, 2025, the closing prices of most futures and spot varieties in the black industry chain changed. For example, the RB2601 contract of rebar decreased from 3103 to 3037 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.13%; the HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil decreased from 3285 to 3204 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47%. However, the J2601 contract of coke increased from 1666.5 to 1676 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.57% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast 3.2.1 Steel Products - **Logic**: The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased. The steel products market oscillated and declined last week, and the downstream weakness improved limitedly. The Sino - US trade friction affected market sentiment, and important domestic meetings and Sino - US economic and trade consultations are worth noting [9]. - **Viewpoint**: Low - level operation, short - term downward pressure, and attention to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled and rebar [9]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Logic**: The macro - level meeting is expected to focus on new - quality productivity and consumption. The supply of foreign mines decreased slightly, the arrival volume will return to the median level, the domestic demand decreased but remained high, the steel mill inventory decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased [10]. - **Viewpoint**: The price will operate within a range, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures between 760 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of approximately 103 - 107 US dollars/ton [10]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Logic**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke first declined and then rose last week, affected by Sino - US trade policies and anti - involution expectations. The spot market was stable and slightly strong, and some coke enterprises planned a second price increase. The coal mine output increased, the imported coal volume increased monthly, the coke enterprise profit contracted, and the steel mill profit was in deficit [11]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, the supply increases while the demand decreases, but they are still at a relatively high level. The price should be treated with cautious optimism [11]. 3.2.4 Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Overseas, the US government shutdown affected economic data and Fed policy decisions. Domestically, the demand improvement expectation was weak. The supply of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon was relatively loose, the demand decreased, the inventory increased, and the cost support was stable [12]. - **Viewpoint**: The alloy prices are expected to be under pressure and operate weakly. Attention should be paid to domestic macro - policies and the progress of Sino - US economic and trade consultations [12]. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: The output last week was 201.16 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.24 tons; the apparent demand was 219.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 73.74 tons. The total inventory was 641.04 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.59 tons [14][21]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The output last week was 321.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.45 tons; the apparent demand was 315.55 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.58 tons. The total inventory was 419.19 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.29 tons [24][29]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: The total import ore port inventory (45 ports) last week was 14278.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 253.77 tons [41]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The inventory of 247 steel enterprises last week was 8982.73 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63.46 tons [48]. - **Global Shipment**: The global total shipment last week was 3207.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71.5 tons [54]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 891.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.84 tons [74]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 2599.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 87.92 tons [82]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port last week was 33.5 yuan/dry ton degree, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 yuan [106]. - **Output**: The silicon - manganese output of 187 independent enterprises last week was 208810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4585 tons [110]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon - manganese of five major steel types last week was 121113 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 960 tons [114]. - **Inventory**: The silicon - manganese inventory of 63 independent enterprises on October 17 was 262500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20000 tons [117].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 20, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon iron (SF) main contract closed at 5436, up 0.11%, with an increase of 5090 in positions; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5738, up 0.35%, with a decrease of 12123 in positions [6]. - For silicon iron, on the 20th, the spot price was stable. The supply is still at a high level, while the demand faces pressure due to the poor performance of macro - data in September, high steel inventories, and the expected steel mill maintenance. However, its low valuation provides some support, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - For manganese silicon, on the 20th, manganese ore spot prices were stable with a slight increase, and manganese silicon spot prices were also stable with a slight increase. The supply is at a high level, and the demand has a downward risk due to poor macro - data and high steel inventories. It is also expected to fluctuate at the bottom, restricted by demand but supported by valuation and low manganese ore inventories [6]. - For trading strategies, the unilateral strategy is to expect bottom - range fluctuations as the demand expectation remains weak, but the valuation and cost side provide support; the arbitrage strategy is to wait and see; the option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Data**: The SF main contract closed at 5436, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of 30, a trading volume of 134,692 (down 441), and an open interest of 203,512 (up 5090). The SM main contract closed at 5738, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of - 8, a trading volume of 152,986 (down 8580), and an open interest of 377,834 (down 12123) [3]. - **Spot Data**: For silicon iron, the spot prices in different regions were mostly stable, with some minor changes in weekly prices. For manganese silicon, some regional spot prices rose by 20 yuan/ton, and the manganese ore in Tianjin Port semi - carbonate rose by 0.2 yuan/ton degree [3][6]. - **Basis/Spread Data**: The basis and spread data of silicon iron and manganese silicon showed different daily and weekly changes. For example, the SF - SM spread was - 302, with a daily change of - 14 and a weekly change of 38 [3]. - **Raw Material Data**: For manganese ore in Tianjin, the prices of different types had minor daily and weekly changes. The prices of blue charcoal small materials in different regions were stable [3]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to have bottom - range fluctuations; arbitrage is to wait and see; options are to sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [7]. - **Important Information**: In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; pig iron output was 66.05 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%; steel output was 124.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. From January to September, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%, etc. [8] Related Attachments - The attachments include various charts such as the ferroalloy main contract trend review, the sf - sm spread on the disk, the monthly spreads of silicon iron and manganese silicon, the basis of silicon iron and manganese silicon, the spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon, the production costs and profits of silicon iron and manganese silicon, and the ferroalloy electricity prices [12][16][20]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For silicon manganese, the supply is at a high level in the short - term, and it will gradually enter the supply off - season in mid - to - late October. After the new round of restocking demand from downstream steel procurement is released, it is more difficult to reduce the inventory in production areas. The cost side provides some support, but the upward driving force is limited. It is advisable to wait and see. The reference range for the main contract is [5680, 5800] [4][5]. - For silicon iron, both supply and demand are weakening, the inventory continues to increase, and the number of warehouse receipts maintains a downward trend. It is expected to move within a range following coal prices in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on silicon iron and short on manganese silicon. The reference range for the main contract is [5300, 5600] [46][47]. 3. Summary by Directory Silicon Manganese - **Supply**: As of October 17, the national silicon manganese production was 20.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.46 million tons; the operating rate was 43.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09%. The operating rate in Yunnan continued to decline to 81.79%, while the daily output remained at a high level in the same period [4][10]. - **Demand**: The molten iron production remained above 2.4 million tons, and the rebar production continued to decline. The steel procurement price - pressing sentiment remained strong. The first - round inquiry price of a landmark steel mill was lower than market expectations. HeSteel's first - round inquiry price for silicon manganese in October was 5750 yuan/ton, and the latest inquiry price was 5800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous round; the procurement quantity was 16,500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous round but an increase of 4500 tons compared with the same period last year [4][16]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 262,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons. As of September 18, the total number of silicon manganese warehouse receipts was 47,900, a decrease of 6100 from last Friday; the total valid forecasts were 3300, an increase of 3300 from last Friday. The total delivery inventory (including forecasts) was about 256,000 tons, maintaining a downward trend [4]. - **Cost and Profit**: The port manganese ore prices were weak this week, with small declines in both high - and low - grade prices. The total shipment volume of the three major countries was 439,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 337,600 tons; the arrival volume was 403,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 308,900 tons. After the holiday, the port clearance volume increased rapidly, and the port inventory decreased slightly. The production costs in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi were 5818 yuan/ton and 6431 yuan/ton respectively; the production profits were - 138 yuan/ton and - 781 yuan/ton respectively [4][23]. Silicon Iron - **Supply**: As of October 17, the weekly silicon iron production was 112,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30,000 tons; the operating rate was 35.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%. Although the national production and operating rate decreased, there were still individual factory restarts in Ningxia, and the daily output remained at a high level in the same period [46][51]. - **Demand**: This week, the demand for silicon iron converted from the five major steel products was 19,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 182 tons. The steel procurement process in October accelerated, and the market price - pressing sentiment was still strong. HeSteel's final bid price for silicon iron in October was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from September; the procurement quantity was 2956 tons, a decrease of 195 tons from September but an increase of 920 tons compared with the same period last year. In September, the magnesium ingot production was 76,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3300 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 0.38%. From January to August, the cumulative silicon iron export volume was 2.71 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of about 6.5% [46][57][60]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 69,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3100 tons. As of October 17, the total number of silicon iron warehouse receipts was 12,200, a decrease of 2800 from last Friday; the total delivery inventory (including forecasts) was 63,000 tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from last Friday [46]. - **Cost and Profit**: Recently, the semi - coke market was stable. The production costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were 5625 yuan/ton and 5522 yuan/ton respectively; the production profits were - 445 yuan/ton and - 392 yuan/ton respectively [47][65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on October 20, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5130 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 50 yuan; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 was 5180 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 20 yuan; the latest price of Shaanxi 75 was 5800 yuan, with a daily and weekly decrease of 300 yuan. The export price of Tianjin 72 was 1060 US dollars, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 35 US dollars [2]. - For silicon manganese, on October 20, 2025, the factory - ex price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5680 yuan, with no daily and weekly change; the factory - ex price of Ningxia 6517 was 5600 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 20 yuan [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in China (monthly and weekly) and their capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (monthly) are provided from 2021 - 2025. Also, the production data of silicon manganese in China (weekly) from 2021 - 2025 are presented [4][6]. Demand - The demand - related data include the estimated and actual production of crude steel in China (monthly), the demand for silicon manganese in China (in ten thousand tons, according to Steel Union's caliber), and the procurement volume and price of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly) from 2021 - 2025 [4][6][7]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China (weekly), and their inventory in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi (weekly) from 2021 - 2025 are provided. Also, the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of them (daily) are presented, as well as the average available inventory days in different regions (monthly) [5]. - For silicon manganese, the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of them (daily), the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly, in tons), and the average available inventory days in China (monthly) from 2021 - 2025 are provided [7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, the electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (daily), the market price of blue carbon small materials in Shaanxi (daily), the production cost and profit in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia (in yuan/ton) from 2021 - 2025 are provided [5]. - For silicon manganese, the profit data in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions (in yuan/ton, according to Steel Union's caliber) from 2021 - 2025 are provided [7].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 锰硅周报10.13-10.17 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 本周观点： 从成本端来看，焦炭市场暂稳、锰矿市场偏弱暂稳。北方市场成本支撑力度弱于南方市场。 从供应端来看，北方地 区硅锰工厂生产节奏基本稳定，另外，据了解北方地区后期有增产的预期。南方市场来看，广西、贵州两地硅锰工厂 开工率长期维持低位，短期暂无明显变动；而云南地区受丰水期结束影响，电价即将上涨，硅锰生产总成本将显著抬 升。目前已有云南工厂明确表示将在电价调整后启动减产，预计后续云南地区硅锰开工率将逐步下降 从需求端来 看，河钢集团10月硅锰二轮询价5800元/吨，比较首轮询价5750元/吨上调50元，对比看，9月硅锰定价：6000元/吨。 市场观望河钢的最终定价。 总体来看，供需基本面无较大变动，十月 ...