期货研究报告 2025年11月17日 生猪期货：震荡偏弱，空头主导 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周生猪现货价呈"企稳 - 回落 - 收窄 - 反弹"的震荡偏弱走势，整体重心 下移，均价从11.97/公斤逐步波动调整，虽周末出现小幅反弹，但未能改变全周偏弱的整体格局，且同比仍 处于大幅下跌区间。国家统计局及期货机构数据显示，11月上旬生猪（外三元）价格环比下降1.7%，全周现 货均价围绕11.7-12.0元/公斤区间波动，年末供应压力与季节性需求预期的矛盾成为市场核心矛盾点。 供应端方面，进入下旬后养殖场出栏积极性普遍较高，尤其集团场受进度偏慢影响存在一定追赶计划， 加之部分压栏大猪逐步流入市场，带动出栏均重整体上移，市场猪肉供应呈现充足态势。需求端方面，屠 宰企业因利润空间有限暂无主动入库意愿，加之下游市场产品消化速度依然缓慢，因此屠宰量波动有限。 随着气温下降，南方地区腌腊需求将小幅启动，对消费形成一定支撑，但提振力度预计有限，难以完全对 冲供应压力，市场短期仍以偏弱震荡为主。 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2. ...

据商务部市场运行监测系统显示，压栏增重及二次育肥现象增多，10月27日至11月2日，全国36个大中 城市猪肉零售价格环比上涨0.4%。西部地区猪肉价格涨幅居前，其中贵阳、西安分别上涨3.4%和 1.8%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Views - The beef price is expected to continue rising, indicating a new upward cycle for beef prices in 2025 [2] - The pig farming industry is experiencing a reversal of internal competition, which is likely to support long-term pig prices [3] - The poultry sector is seeing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for improved consumption during peak seasons [3] - The dairy sector is anticipated to undergo accelerated capacity reduction, with potential price turning points for raw milk by year-end [2][3] - The feed industry is benefiting from deeper industrialization and clearer division of labor, enhancing competitive advantages for leading feed companies [3] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The average price of live pigs as of November 14 is 11.73 CNY/kg, down 1.5% week-on-week [1] - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.06 CNY/kg, down 0.93% week-on-week and down 24.91% year-on-year [13] - The average price of broiler chickens is 7.16 CNY/kg, up 3.02% week-on-week [13] 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The industry is progressing with a reversal of internal competition, which is expected to support profitability [8] 2.2 Poultry - The supply of white chickens is slightly increasing, with a focus on consumption recovery during peak seasons [8] 2.3 Beef - A new round of beef price increases is beginning, with optimism for a reversal in the beef cycle in 2025 [8] 2.4 Dairy - The reduction in dairy cow capacity is expected to accelerate in Q4, with potential price turning points for raw milk [8] 2.5 Feed - The feed industry is seeing a strong demand due to industrialization and technological advantages [8] 3. Market Trends - The report highlights the potential for price increases in various agricultural products, including beef, pork, and poultry, driven by supply-demand dynamics and seasonal consumption patterns [3][4]

益生股份（002458.SZ）11月17日在投资者互动平台表示，公司11月引种3.4万套，12月引种计划还在商 谈中，目前公司引种未受法国禽流感的影响。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：贵公司预计11月和12月引种多少？是否受法国禽流感 疫情影响？ （记者 王瀚黎） ...

每经AI快讯，11月17日，据国家发改委网站消息，截至11月12日当周，全国猪料比价为4.78，环比下跌 1.65%。按目前价格及成本推算，未来仔猪育肥模式的生猪养殖头均盈利为-199.68元。当周生猪均价环 比下滑。养殖端出栏节奏加快，生猪供应充裕，但终端需求跟进有限，且二次育肥减少补栏，供大于求 拖累猪价回落。 ...

2025 年 11 月 17 日 生猪：肥标价差走弱，降温涨价预期落空 | 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | 价 格 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11980 | | 50 | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11400 | | -50 | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12360 | | -200 | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11400 | | -50 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12360 | | -200 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | | 生猪26 ...

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the agricultural and ecological richness of the Qaidam Basin in Qinghai Province, emphasizing the development of various advantageous industries and the promotion of green organic agricultural products as a key strategy for economic growth and ecological sustainability [1][8]. Industry Overview - The Qaidam Basin is recognized as a significant agricultural area, with a focus on five major advantageous industries: Tibetan sheep, yaks, goji berries, barley, and forage, alongside emerging sectors like quinoa and facility-grown vegetables [4][5]. - The region is the largest goji berry cultivation area in China, producing nearly 100,000 tons of dried fruit annually, primarily exported to Europe, America, Southeast Asia, and Hong Kong [5]. Production and Capacity - The Tibetan sheep industry is supported by the establishment of standardized breeding bases, with a target of 1.8 million sheep to be slaughtered by 2025, achieving a slaughter rate of over 60% and a total meat production of approximately 30,000 tons [5]. - The forage industry has a natural grassland area of 180 million acres, with 110 million acres available for use, and the artificial forage planting area reaching 127,700 acres, yielding 105,000 tons with a value of 162.4 million yuan [5]. Quinoa and Other Emerging Industries - The quinoa industry has expanded to over 100,000 acres, with seven processing workshops capable of processing 30,000 tons annually, producing various quinoa products [6]. - The region is also developing a diverse range of new industries, including medicinal herbs and edible fungi, contributing to the "5+5+N" advantageous industry system [4][8]. Green Development Initiatives - The local government has implemented several policies to promote the development of green organic agricultural products, including plans for a comprehensive agricultural industry chain and financial support for quality improvement [10][12]. - Environmental sustainability efforts include the utilization of crop residues and livestock waste, achieving a straw utilization rate of 90.23% and a comprehensive utilization rate of livestock waste exceeding 84% [10][11]. Brand Development and Market Expansion - The region is actively building the "Magical Qaidam" public brand, with 94 enterprises and 395 products included in the quality product library, and has established flagship stores to enhance market presence [12]. - In 2024, the region aims to export 285,800 tons of various agricultural products, generating a revenue of 5.537 billion yuan [12].

其一，二次育肥补栏体量下降。其实有好多次猪价上涨出乎养殖户预期，多半是二育的"功劳"。眼下二育一方面是政策端的不支持，另一方面主 要还是猪价承压，二育补栏积极性不高，进而对猪价支撑力度下降，且前期二育猪源正择机出栏，也会限制后市猪价的反弹幅度。 其二，屠宰企业采购偏谨慎。国家级大数据中心监测显示，11月6-12日期间，全国屠宰企业开工均率为34.36%，环比下跌0.7%，较前一周下跌 0.24个百分点。这也说明屠企对高价猪源的接受度和采购意愿并不强。 来源：猪好多网 在当前猪市供需双增的情况下，市场供需博弈进一步加深，反映到猪价具体走势上，生猪行情持续的磨底震荡。值得关注的是，今日猪价止跌企 稳，东北、西北全域飘红，不过猪价上涨动力略显不足的迹象还是比较明显，单日反弹幅度大部分在0.10元/公斤以内。 | | | 猪好多数据 - 全国各省市生猪价格外三元报价表 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025年11月16日 (単位: 元/公斤) | | | | 省市 | 2025/11/16 | 2025/10/16 | 较昨日涨跌 | 较上月涨跌 | | 辽宁 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Xinwufeng (600975), has announced an increase in its R&D expenses for the upcoming years, indicating a commitment to new research projects and associated costs [1] R&D Expenses Summary - For 2024, the company plans to allocate R&D expenses of 76.1646 million yuan [1] - In the first quarter of 2025, R&D expenses are projected to be 23.8232 million yuan [1] - The second quarter of 2025 will see R&D expenses of 51.5276 million yuan [1] - R&D expenses for the third quarter of 2025 are expected to reach 57.7165 million yuan [1] - Cumulatively, R&D expenses for the first three quarters of 2025 are estimated at 133.0673 million yuan [1] - The increase in R&D expenses is primarily due to investments in new research projects, as well as rising costs for testing, materials, and other related expenses [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Pigs**: In a phase of fluctuating downward movement, the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The supply of pigs is increasing due to a persistently high inventory of breeding sows and improved production performance. The supply pressure in the second half of 2025 remains significant. Although the demand is expected to seasonally pick up, the boost may be limited due to the slow - down of economic development and changes in consumer preferences. The rebound space for hog prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the overall trend will be under pressure. Short - term hog prices may be weak, and the recommended operation is to short on rallies [3]. - **Eggs**: In a phase of fluctuating downward movement, the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level year - on - year, and the supply pressure continues to exert downward pressure. The demand has seasonal changes within the year, but is limited by the macro - economy and consumer preferences. The egg price is expected to remain at a low level considering cost and profit issues. The 01 contract is in the peak demand season, but the high supply is expected to lead to insufficient demand absorption, and the overall situation remains under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Section - **Supply Analysis** - **Over - capacity and High - level Supply**: The inventory of breeding sows has been stable at around 40.5 million since June 2024, higher than the official normal level of 30 million. The supply will remain high until the first half of 2026. The farming end's slaughter rhythm may affect the phased supply [10]. - **Weight Impact on Supply**: As the weather turns cold, the overall weight of pigs has increased, and the slaughter weight has continued to rise. With further cooling and a more obvious difference between fat and standard pig prices, the overall slaughter weight is expected to continue to rise [11]. - **Demand Analysis**: As the weather gets colder, the downstream demand enters the peak season, and the slaughter volume shows a slow - growth trend. In addition to actual demand, secondary fattening and frozen product storage form short - term apparent demand. Recently, secondary fattening has been cautious, and the willingness for concentrated slaughter is also low [23]. - **Cost and Profit Analysis** - **Farmers' Losses**: As of November 13, 2025, the breeding cost of large - scale farms in the self - breeding and self - raising model is 12.41 yuan/kg, and that in the model of purchasing piglets is 13.99 yuan/kg [36]. - **Slow Capacity Reduction**: Farmers are pessimistic about the future market. Sow replenishment is mainly for replacement, and the elimination of high - parity sows has increased [37]. - **Policy - Reserve Purchase and Sale**: The state reserve's purchase and sale of pork adjust market supply and demand and guide market sentiment to ensure the stable operation of the pig market. The National Development and Reform Commission will launch the third batch of central pork reserve purchases this year to promote a reasonable rebound in hog prices [44]. - **Spread and Basis Analysis**: Multiple spread and basis data such as the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11 basis of pigs in Henan and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, 1 - 3 spreads are provided, showing different price differences and trends over time [52][61][67]. 3.2 Egg Section - **Supply Analysis** - **Current Supply Situation**: Egg supply is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the egg - laying rate. Since 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishment has weakened. The decline in replenishment in the third quarter corresponds to a decrease in newly - opened layers in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the number of culled hens has increased due to low egg prices. The inventory of laying hens in the fourth quarter may decline but remain at a high level year - on - year, with sufficient egg supply [73]. - **Cost Situation**: Recently, the feed cost has rebounded slightly, and the overall breeding cost has not fluctuated much, currently around 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [75]. - **Demand Analysis**: In the long - term, egg consumption is related to population, economic development, and consumer preferences, showing a steady growth trend. In the short - and medium - term, egg demand has obvious seasonality. Currently, the demand is in the off - season, and after the end of e - commerce promotions, the demand has not been significantly boosted, but high vegetable prices still provide some support [85]. - **Substitute Price and Spread Analysis** - **Substitute Price**: The prices of major meats and 28 key vegetables are provided, which may affect egg demand [100]. - **Spread and Basis**: Multiple spread and basis data such as the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads of eggs and the 01, 05, 09, 10, 11, 12 basis of eggs in Hebei are provided, showing different price differences and trends over time [100].