1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's focus is shifting towards medium - quality entities within industries such as steel, coal, real estate, local state - owned construction enterprises, and non - bank finance. In Q3, it is advisable to explore large - scale medium - quality entities in each industry. For institutions with high risk tolerance, there are opportunities to compress the liquidity premium of some high - quality private enterprises. For industries with low overall risks like public utilities, regular allocation is sufficient [5]. - For ultra - long credit bonds, it is time to gradually take profits, shorten the duration for defense, and switch to more liquid varieties, waiting for the next opportunity to attack [6]. - In Q3, different industries present various investment opportunities and risks. For example, the construction industry may see marginal improvement in prosperity but still face pressure; the steel industry has strong expectations of marginal improvement in fundamentals; the coal industry needs to select high - quality entities for exploration; the real estate industry has high - valued state - owned enterprises with certain investment potential; the non - ferrous metal industry has a differentiated prosperity; and the cement industry has limited opportunities [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Q3 Ultra - long Credit Bond Strategy: Gradually Take Profits and Wait for Subsequent Attack Opportunities 3.1.1 Primary Issuance - In Q2, the supply of ultra - long credit bonds increased month - on - month, with large industrial central state - owned enterprises remaining the main financing force. The total issuance in H1 was 539.8 billion yuan, and Q2 increased by 63% month - on - month, accounting for 9.27% of all credit bonds, but still lower than Q3 last year. The issuers were mainly industrial, accounting for about 72%, and large central state - owned enterprises such as State Grid had large issuance volumes [16]. - Since early July, the bond market has adjusted, and the supply of ultra - long credit bonds may be frustrated in the short term, and its subsequent recovery remains to be observed [18]. 3.1.2 Yield Analysis - To obtain significant excess returns from extending the credit duration, either interest rate decline or spread compression must occur, and the amplitude should be large enough [31]. - The trigger for the sharp decline of ultra - long credit bonds in recent years is mostly the reversal of institutional behavior. Currently, although it is predicted that there will be a double - bull market for stocks and bonds in the second half of the year, the short - term risk cannot be ignored due to the impact of the "stock - bond seesaw" on market sentiment [34]. - In terms of capital gains, the odds of ultra - long credit bonds are decreasing; the one - two - level arbitrage space is difficult to find; and the coupon protection ability is weak, making it difficult to increase the winning rate. Therefore, it is recommended to gradually take profits and switch to more liquid varieties such as 5Y bank secondary perpetual bonds [37]. 3.1.3 Strategy - For most institutions, it is time to gradually take profits from ultra - long credit bonds. The reasons include the difficulty in continuing the excess returns in the future, the fragility of the market's optimistic sentiment, the lack of obvious coupon advantages and protection ability, and the relatively small advantage compared with 5Y bank secondary perpetual bonds [46][51]. 3.2 Q3 Industrial Bond Strategy: Explore Industry Allocation Opportunities under "Anti - involution" 3.2.1 Construction - In 2025, the construction industry has been under pressure since the beginning of the year, and the downward trend in prosperity continued into Q2. In Q3, although factors such as accelerated capital arrival, the "anti - involution" initiative, and overseas growth are expected to bring marginal improvement in prosperity, the industry will still be under pressure overall, and industry concentration may further increase, benefiting leading central state - owned enterprises [48][52]. - In terms of bond valuation, the industry's valuation declined steadily in the second quarter. The spread of central state - owned enterprises narrowed, and some local state - owned enterprises had a large decline in valuation, but the valuation of some enterprises was still unstable [55]. - The strategy is to mainly explore subsidiaries of central state - owned enterprises and selectively allocate local state - owned enterprises. For institutions with low risk tolerance, continue to explore high - valued subsidiaries of central state - owned enterprises or leading local state - owned enterprises; for institutions that can accept a certain degree of credit quality downgrade, local state - owned enterprises provide greater return space, but it is not recommended to over - explore them [56]. 3.2.2 Steel - In Q2, steel prices fluctuated downward, but rose rapidly in early July under the support of cost and the expectation of "anti - involution" policies [60]. - In terms of fundamentals, supply is cautiously released, demand recovery in Q2 was less than expected, and total inventory is expected to further decline. In the short term, steel prices and steel enterprise profits are expected to be strong, but there is a risk of a callback [61][65][67]. - Medium - quality entities have strong motivation to compress spreads, and it is expected that the spreads of medium - grade mainstream entities such as HBIS and Shandong Steel will continue to compress. They can be appropriately allocated [71]. 3.2.3 Coal - In the second quarter, the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward and then rebounded at the end of the quarter, while the price of coking coal rose briefly in April and then fell, also rebounding at the end of June [74]. - In terms of fundamentals, the supply structure is relatively loose, and production inspections may lead to subsequent tightening. The demand for thermal coal is seasonally improving, while the probability of "oversupply" of coking coal is relatively large. Port inventories are continuously being depleted [76][80]. - It is expected that the coal price rebound may continue, with thermal coal being stronger than coking coal. In Q3, exploration still needs to select high - quality entities, and Jinmei Group is still the target of exploration by mainstream institutions [7][80]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - In Q3, the downward pressure on the real estate industry may continue to increase. The real estate sector is currently the highest - valued sector among state - owned enterprises, with a certain thickness of coupon and potential for exploration. Although the market is concerned about the emotional fluctuations brought about by Vanke's support willingness, the fluctuations are relatively controllable under the attraction of absolute returns, and it has cost - effectiveness [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals - In the non - ferrous metals industry, for gold, the market is mainly speculating on the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, and the long - term upward trend of the central price remains unchanged; for copper, the mining end is generally tight but with marginal increments, and the demand side is weak; for aluminum, the inventory has been depleted more than expected, and the demand - side risk is small, and the profit space of electrolytic aluminum plants is expected to continue [7]. - In terms of strategy, the valuations of high - quality but over - valued entities such as Nanshan Group, Hongqiao New Materials, and Luoyang Aluminum Industry are expected to continue to decline, while there are few opportunities for other entities [7]. 3.2.6 Cement - In Q2, cement prices almost declined unilaterally, and manufacturers faced the risk of losses. Attention should be paid to the implementation of over - production governance under "anti - involution." Currently, except for Hongshi, the spreads of the cement sector are basically compressed within 30bp, and it is difficult to obtain excess returns, so the overall opportunities in the cement sector are limited [7]. 3.2.7 Strategy - In Q3, explore large - scale medium - quality entities in each industry. The current spread of entities with a spread of 40 - 50bp is about 20bp different from that of leading entities, and it is expected that the spread will be compressed in Q3 [5]. 3.3 Q2 Industrial Bond Market Review: Convergent Trends and Deviation from Fundamentals 3.3.1 Issuance and Financing Situation - In Q2, industrial bonds had a large net inflow of 732.1 billion yuan, and public utilities led in net financing [14]. 3.3.2 Yield and Spread Trends - After the yield was repaired in Q2, it fluctuated at a low level. The trading logic was that the loose capital tone ran through the entire quarter, and the performance of different industries in the industrial bond market was not significantly differentiated, and the spread trend deviated from fundamentals [9]. 3.3.3 Liquidity - Since Q2, the liquidity of credit bonds has been continuously improving, and the trading heat of ultra - long credit bonds reached its peak in mid - June [14]. 3.3.4 Credit Risk - In Q2, there were 2 entities with substantial bond defaults and 4 domestic entities with rating/ outlook downgrades, but the overall credit risk was controllable [9].

Core Viewpoint - Zhengzhou Coal Industry Group's subsidiaries, Yanghe Coal Mine and Xingwang Coal Industry, have received multiple administrative penalties for safety violations and environmental issues, indicating ongoing regulatory scrutiny and compliance challenges within the coal mining sector [3][4][5]. Group 1: Administrative Penalties - Yanghe Coal Mine received a warning and fine under administrative penalty document number Yu Mei An Jian Yi Fa [2025] 2049, with a similar penalty for its main responsible person under document number Yu Mei An Jian Yi Fa [2025] 2050 [3]. - Xingwang Coal Industry was also fined, with the penalty documented as Yu Mei An Jian Yi Fa [2025] 1045 [3]. - The Yanghe Coal Mine has a total of 12 recorded administrative penalties, including a fine of 140,000 yuan for multiple safety violations on June 20, 2025 [3][4]. Group 2: Specific Violations - Specific violations at Yanghe Coal Mine included failure to maintain safety equipment, improper installation of fire safety measures, and inadequate maintenance of machinery, leading to a fine of 140,000 yuan [4]. - On March 21, 2025, Yanghe Coal Mine was fined 145,000 yuan for illegally disposing of industrial solid waste, as per document number Yu 0183 Huan Fa Jue Zi [2025] 18 [5]. - Xingwang Coal Industry faced a fine of 31,000 yuan on June 11, 2024, for safety equipment failures, including damaged pressure gauges [6]. Group 3: Company Background - Zhengzhou Coal Industry Group is a major state-owned enterprise in Henan Province, with total assets of 38.7 billion yuan and a production capacity of 27 million tons across its mining operations [9]. - The group operates 19 directly managed mines and has 62 wholly-owned or controlled subsidiaries, indicating a significant presence in the coal industry [9].

Group 1: Q3 Super Long Credit Bond Strategy - The report suggests gradually taking profits on super long credit bonds and switching to shorter-term, more liquid varieties while waiting for the next investment opportunity [6][10][26] - In Q2, the issuance of super long credit bonds increased significantly, with a total of 539.8 billion yuan, marking a 63% increase from the previous quarter [10][12] - The report indicates that the current market conditions do not support further exploration of super long credit bonds due to declining odds of capital gains and limited arbitrage opportunities [26][27] Group 2: Q3 Industry Bond Strategy - The strategy focuses on identifying investment opportunities under the "anti-involution" initiative across various industries [6][10] - In the construction sector, while there is a marginal improvement expected due to funding acceleration and the "anti-involution" initiative, the overall industry remains under pressure [6][10] - The steel industry shows strong expectations for marginal improvement, with opportunities for continued compression of spreads among mid-tier players like Hebei Steel and Shandong Steel [6][10] - The coal sector anticipates a rebound in prices, with a focus on major players like Jin Energy, while cash flow improvements may exceed expectations [6][10] - The real estate sector faces increasing downward pressure, but state-owned enterprises still present attractive absolute returns [6][10] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, the report highlights a divergence in market conditions, with opportunities for compression in spreads among quality private enterprises [6][10] - The cement industry is under significant pressure, with risks of losses and limited opportunities for excess returns [6][10] - The overall strategy recommends focusing on medium-quality entities across industries, particularly in steel, coal, real estate, and construction, while keeping an eye on the "anti-involution" initiative and the commencement of the Yajiang Hydropower Station [6][10]

证券研究报告 策略 "反内卷"主线或逐渐形成 2025 年 7 月 24 日│中国内地 动态点评 华泰研究 何康，PhD 研究员 hekang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2202 王伟光 研究员 SAC No. S0570523040001 wangweiguang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 方正韬 研究员 SAC No. S0570524060001 fangzhengtao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 孙瀚文 研究员 SAC No. S0570524040002 SFC No. BVB302 sunhanwen@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 核心观点 近日，雅鲁藏布江下游水电站项目（以下简称"雅下项目"）开工和煤炭行 业限制超产等政策助力下"反内卷"主线逐渐形成，背后是政策力度和市场 认知的进一步深化：其一，此前部分投资者担忧本轮"反内卷"缺乏需求侧 政策配合，雅下项目落地提供了积极信号，下半年信用和库存周期拐点渐次 出现、ROE 企稳回升的能见度进一步上升；其二，本轮"反内卷"政策已 完成政策定调和顶 ...

Group 1 - The Guizhou Hanno Mining Co., Ltd. was fined for providing false information and concealing the number of miners underground [1][2][5] - The administrative penalty was issued on July 21, 2025, and included a temporary suspension of the company's safety production license [3][5] - The company was ordered to cease operations for three days and fined 734,000 RMB (approximately 73.4 million) [4][5] Group 2 - The violations included exceeding the allowed number of miners underground, failure to carry portable methane detectors, and inadequate equipment maintenance [4][5][6] - The company is a subsidiary of Hanno United Group, which has total assets of 3.8 billion RMB and operates multiple coal mines and other businesses [7][8] - Hanno United Group has a coal production capacity of 3.5 million tons per year and is involved in various sectors including machine manufacturing and real estate [7]

Core Insights - Shaanxi's industrial growth is driven by both energy and non-energy sectors, particularly coal and automotive industries [1][3] Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, Shaanxi's GDP reached 16,828.01 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [2] - The industrial output value increased by 9.2%, ranking 4th among all provinces in China [2] - The mining sector grew by 10.5%, manufacturing by 8.9%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 3.3% [2] Energy Industry - The energy sector's value added increased by 8.5%, with coal mining and washing growing by 11.5% and oil and gas extraction by 5.5% [3] - The provincial economic plan emphasizes enhancing energy production and infrastructure, including coal and gas projects [3] Non-Energy Industry - The automotive industry showed remarkable growth, with production increasing by 25.2% in the first half of the year, and new energy vehicles rising by 30.3% [4] - Shaanxi's automotive production reached 943,200 units, ranking 6th nationally, with a significant rise from previous years [4] - The growth in the automotive sector contributed to an increase in exports, with total trade reaching 2,445.14 billion yuan, a 7.5% year-on-year increase [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the water conservancy and hydropower sectors experiencing a surge, while engineering machinery and coal sectors lead the gains [1] - As of July 23, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3608.58 points, breaking the 3600-point mark and setting a new yearly high, approaching the peak from last year's "924" rally [1] - The CSI A500 Index (000510) rose by 0.58%, with several constituent stocks, including Zhejiang Fuhua Holdings (002266) and China Power Construction (601669), hitting the 10% daily limit [1] Group 2 - The CSI A500 ETF leader (563800) recorded a half-day increase of 0.59%, marking its fifth consecutive rise, with a turnover rate of 7.01% and a half-day trading volume of 1.193 billion yuan [1] - Over the past six months, the net value of the CSI A500 ETF leader has increased by 10.31%, with the highest monthly return since inception being 3.55% [2] - The CSI A500 Index is designed to reflect the overall performance of 500 representative listed companies across various industries, balancing traditional and emerging sectors [2] Group 3 - Financial analysts suggest that the A-share market is entering a new bullish phase before August, driven by improved investor sentiment and new capital inflows, indicating potential upward momentum for the index [2] - Recent market trends indicate a positive outlook, with limited downside risk and clearer upward logic as investor confidence grows amid ample market liquidity [3] - The CSI A500 ETF leader provides a balanced allocation of quality leading companies across industries, serving as a strategic tool for investing in A-shares [3]

Group 1: Trade Agreements and Economic Impact - The US and Japan have reached a trade agreement, reducing the reciprocal tariff rate from 25% to 15%, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion and open its agricultural market [1] - Following the announcement, Japan's Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indices rose approximately 2.7%, reaching their highest levels since July 2024, with significant gains in the automotive sector [3] - The Philippines also reached a trade agreement with the US, with tariffs set at 19%, lower than the previously threatened 20% [1] Group 2: Political Developments in Japan - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to announce his resignation by the end of August, following the ruling coalition's loss of majority seats in the recent Senate elections [1][5] - The political uncertainty in Japan may lead to increased volatility in the market, affecting investor confidence and complicating the policy environment [5] - The election results could influence Japan's fiscal policy direction, with opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and the ruling coalition favoring fiscal discipline [5] Group 3: Bond Market Reactions - Japanese government bond yields have risen across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 5 basis points to 0.8%, and the 10-year yield rising by 8 basis points to 1.58% [4] - Concerns over fiscal sustainability are driving the bond market, with predictions of further yield increases if populist parties push for tax reductions [6] Group 4: Broader Market Trends in Asia - Other Asian markets also experienced gains, with South Korea's KOSPI index rising 0.62% and significant increases in automotive stocks [7] - Vietnam's stock market has shown strong performance, with a 19% increase this year, driven by optimism from recent trade agreements and significant economic reforms [8]

Macro Overview - In the first half of 2023, China's wholesale and retail industry added value reached 6.8 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, accounting for 10.3% of GDP, providing strong support for expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic circulation [4] - The "Housing Rental Regulations" will take effect on September 15, 2025, establishing a rental price monitoring mechanism to curb issues such as deposit deductions and short-term payments for long-term leases [4] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security is promoting the expansion of the basic pension insurance fund's entrusted investment scale and is researching further standardization of investment operation information reporting and disclosure systems [4] Industry Dynamics - The World Health Organization plans to officially release new guidelines for treating adult obesity based on GLP-1 therapy in September, with related stocks including Hanyu Pharmaceutical and East China Pharmaceutical [6] - Solid-state batteries are progressing from laboratory stages to mass production verification, with related stocks including Liyuanheng and XianDao Intelligent [6] - Neuralink, owned by Elon Musk, achieved a milestone by completing two surgeries in one day, with related stocks including Aipeng Medical and Innovation Medical [6] Company Focus - Dayu Water-saving has established project accumulation in Tibet and surrounding areas, aiming to seize the investment window for water conservancy in Tibet [8] - Wankai New Materials has seen monthly orders for its Linker Hand series exceed 1,000 units [8] - China Shipbuilding Emergency has organized a professional team to actively participate in large-scale hydropower projects [8] - Zoomlion Heavy Industry is expected to play a key role in the construction of the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project [8] Market Review and Outlook - On July 22, 2023, the market experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.61%, all reaching new highs for the year [10] - The market showed a mixed structure with most profits concentrated in the super hydropower concept, while over 2,700 stocks declined [10] - The trading volume reached 1.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 193.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [10] - The super hydropower concept saw significant gains, with various sectors such as water conservancy, cement, and engineering construction performing well [11] - The market is expected to continue its consolidation phase, with a healthy structure of rising prices and increasing volumes, before any significant downturn occurs [11]

Group 1 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported that the RMB exchange rate remained stable in the first half of 2025, appreciating by 1.9% against the USD [1] - The People's Bank of China indicated that as of the end of Q2 2025, the balance of real estate loans in RMB was 53.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [1] - Bloomberg reported that U.S. regulators plan to modify a controversial rule to ease day trading restrictions for retail investors, which is expected to attract more retail participation in the U.S. stock market [1] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that the next round of U.S.-China tariff negotiations may include discussions on China's purchases of oil from Russia and Iran [2] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasized the importance of dialogue and cooperation to stabilize U.S.-China relations [2] Group 3 - The United Nations reported that over 93,000 people have been displaced due to conflict in Syria's Suweida province, with significant disruptions to healthcare and basic supplies [3] - Shenzhen's authorities are enhancing communication with central ministries to support the capital market and facilitate the listing of companies in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [3] Group 4 - The National Energy Administration is rumored to have issued a notice to regulate coal mine production and ensure stable coal supply, although this has not been officially confirmed [4] - The World Health Organization is developing new guidelines for GLP-1 therapies for adult obesity, expected to be released in September 2025 [4] Group 5 - Hive Energy plans to begin trial production of its first-generation semi-solid battery with a capacity of 140Ah in Q4 2025, aimed at supplying BMW's next-generation models [6] - The company is also set to produce semi-solid batteries with an energy density of 300Wh/kg this year, with plans for a second generation reaching 360Wh/kg [6] Group 6 - China Nuclear Power plans to invest 1 billion yuan in China Fusion Energy Co., which is a subsidiary of China National Nuclear Corporation [9] - Zhejiang Energy intends to invest 751 million yuan for a 5% stake in China Fusion Energy Co. as part of its strategy in the nuclear fusion energy sector [9] Group 7 - Sichuan Chengyu is part of a consortium that has been selected as the first candidate for the G5 Jingkun Expressway expansion project, with an estimated total investment of approximately 28.55 billion yuan [10] - Gotion High-Tech received a development notice from GAC Group for battery pack assembly, indicating increased market recognition for its SPS battery products [10] Group 8 - GoerTek is in preliminary discussions to acquire 100% equity of Hong Kong Mia and Changhong Limited for approximately 10.4 billion HKD (about 9.5 billion yuan) [11] - Hunan YN plans to establish an investment company in Singapore to invest in a lithium battery cathode material project in Malaysia, with a total investment of about 9.5 billion yuan [11]