2025年12月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：厂库扩容便利仓单交割 | 4 | | 工业硅：以逢高做空思路为主 | 6 | | 多晶硅：新增厂库额度，关注情绪面影响 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 23 日 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,260 | 4,080 | 6,570 | 3,230 | 5,8 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a scaling phase driven by leading companies going public, while Indonesia plans to significantly lower its nickel ore production target for 2026 to stabilize nickel prices [1][4]. Company-Specific Insights 东方电缆 (Oriental Cable) - Recently announced a significant order for a Southeast Asian power interconnection project valued at approximately 1.9 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations. This order is expected to contribute to performance growth starting in 2026, primarily in 2027, with an estimated profit of around 400 million yuan based on a 20% net profit margin. The company’s profit is projected to reach 2.2 billion yuan in 2026 and 2.8 billion yuan in 2027. The current valuation is below 20 times earnings, with potential to rise above 25 times, making the stock price noteworthy [2][2]. 光伏行业 (Photovoltaic Industry) - The recent surge in silver prices poses significant cost pressures on the photovoltaic industry. Companies like 爱旭 (Aixu) are exploring alternatives to precious metals to reduce silver paste costs. 帝科 (Dike) and 聚合 (Juhua) are also developing non-silver alternatives, which are innovative strategies worth monitoring [6][6]. - The price of silver paste, particularly front silver paste, has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 10% and a two-week cumulative increase of nearly 20%. This is influenced by macroeconomic factors, such as anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may continue to drive up precious metal prices [12][12]. 镍相关企业 (Nickel-Related Companies) - Indonesia's government has intensified control over nickel ore production due to low nickel prices, which may affect future price trends. Companies like 方圆股份 (Fangyuan), 华友钴业 (Huayou Cobalt), and 格林美 (GEM) are highlighted for their strong offensive attributes in the nickel sector. If Indonesia implements a quota system similar to that of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, it could significantly reduce supply pressure and drive prices up [4][4]. - Nickel prices have recently approached the smelting cost line, and if they stabilize, companies in this sector could see reduced downside risk [8][10]. Market Trends and Predictions - The cobalt price is expected to rise from around 200,000 yuan to over 400,000 yuan, indicating significant market volatility. If nickel follows a similar trajectory, companies like 华友, 格林美, and 中伟 (Zhongwei) could see substantial earnings growth starting from a baseline of 1 billion yuan [3][8]. - The electric power equipment sector recommends companies such as 东方电气 (Dongfang Electric), 思源电器 (Siyuan Electric), 四方股份 (Sifang), and 神马电力 (Shenma Electric) due to their strong growth prospects and investment value [7][7]. Additional Insights - The commercial aerospace sector's development is impacting the power supply field for space computing, with companies like 易事捷 (EasyJet) and 迈为 (Maiwei) being key players in this technology [5][5]. - The lithium battery sector has shown strong performance, with expectations for cobalt prices to remain above 500,000 yuan in 2026, while nickel prices are expected to experience volatility due to regulatory changes in Indonesia [11][11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call records, highlighting the dynamics within the relevant industries and companies.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term nickel price support has strengthened, but the upward space still depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies. The previous trading logic was about excess pressure and wet - process production expectations. Indonesian news has weakened short - sellers' confidence, and there may be a catch - up increase in nickel prices. The fundamentals of refined nickel have shifted from supply - strong and demand - weak to supply - demand weakness, and the excess pressure has been structurally transferred. However, the expectation of increased supply from the low - cost wet - process path in the long - term still exists, limiting the upward elasticity of nickel prices [3]. - The fundamental contradictions of stainless steel are not prominent, and attention should be paid to the disturbances of Indonesian policy news. Indonesian policies increase the uncertainty of nickel - iron costs. If the quota policy is implemented, the excess contradiction of nickel elements may be turned into a shortage. The resource tax implementation depends on the pricing model of associated resources. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, with weak demand and low supply growth, showing a slight excess. The cost of nickel - iron has slightly increased, and the bottom - line safety margin of stainless steel is good, but the upward drive depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies [3][4]. Summary According to Related Catalogs News Review - The Indonesian government urged enterprises to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget, and market news said that Indonesia hopes to cut the nickel ore quota to 2.5 billion tons. This may cause a shortage of ore, reverse the excess expectation of primary nickel to a shortage, but the actual implementation remains to be seen [1]. - Indonesia may include associated minerals such as cobalt in nickel ore into the tax system. The previous adjustment of the resource tax on high - grade nickel ore increased the theoretical smelting cost by about 700 yuan/metal ton, but the cost increase may not be fully passed on. The impact of taxing cobalt on cost depends on the base - price formula, and the impact on cost should not be overestimated, but there are uncertainties for pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical enterprises [2]. Market Outlook - Nickel: Short - term price support is enhanced, but the upward space depends on policy implementation. The fundamentals have changed to supply - demand weakness, and attention should be paid to the possibility of hidden restocking at low prices. The expected increase in low - cost wet - process supply in the long - term restricts the upward elasticity [3]. - Stainless steel: The fundamentals show a slight excess, and the cost has slightly increased. The bottom - line safety margin is good, but the upward drive depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies [4]. Inventory Tracking - Refined nickel: China's social inventory increased by 281 tons to 56,988 tons, with an increase of 2,352 tons in warehouse receipt inventory, a decrease of 2,071 tons in spot inventory, and no change in bonded - area inventory. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,518 tons to 254,550 tons [5]. - New energy: On December 19, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by +1, - 1, 0 month - on - month to 5, 8, 7 days respectively; the precursor inventory changed by +0.8 month - on - month to 13.1 days; the ternary material inventory remained flat at 6.9 days on December 18 [5]. - Nickel - iron - stainless steel: On November 30, SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,346 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. In November, SMM stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.588 million tons, a year - on - month/ month - on - month increase of 6%/1%. On December 18, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,042,148 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.01%. Among them, the inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 1.5% week - on - week, and that of hot - rolled stainless steel decreased by 2.73% week - on - week [5]. Market News - On September 12, due to violating forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over a more than 148 - hectare nickel - ore mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - ore output by about 600 metal tons [6]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [7]. - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies, and the sanctions will be cancelled if the companies submit claim plans and guarantees [7]. - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order regarding the RKAB approval process. The approval plan for the next - year's RKAB is expected to be completed by November 15 this year, and there are transitional provisions [8]. - Trump announced on October 10 that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1 and implement export controls on "all key software" [8]. - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain nickel - related products through the OSS platform [9]. - Due to strengthened safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks, some nickel - wet - process projects will reduce production in December, affecting the output by about 6,000 nickel - metal tons [11]. - On November 21, the dovish remarks of New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran increased investors' probability of expecting a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in December [11]. - On December 12, China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs decided to implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [11]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will revise the benchmark - price formula for nickel - ore commodities in early 2026, and may treat cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [11]. - Market news said that the Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel - ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [11]. Key Data Tracking - The table shows the weekly key data tracking of nickel and stainless steel, including futures prices, spot prices, spreads, import profits, etc. For example, the closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 117,180, and the closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,720 [13].

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing significant price fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic factors, supply constraints, and demand dynamics, leading to a complex trading environment [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of the latest trading session, the Shanghai nickel futures saw an increase, with the main contract closing at 117,180 CNY/ton, up by 3,600 CNY/ton, representing a 3.17% rise [1]. - The average price for 1 nickel in the Changjiang market rose to 120,450 CNY/ton, an increase of 3,600 CNY from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Indonesia has announced a significant reduction in its medium to long-term production targets, signaling a strategic contraction in supply, which may inject a "premium expectation" into future prices [2]. - Despite the supply contraction signals, global visible inventories remain high, exerting downward pressure on current prices [2]. Group 3: Demand Factors - The stainless steel industry is experiencing seasonal downturns and profit pressures, leading to reduced nickel demand [2]. - Although the long-term outlook for the electric vehicle market remains positive, recent growth rates have shown signs of slowing, resulting in cautious procurement behaviors within the supply chain [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The nickel market is currently in a critical observation phase, with price direction dependent on several core variables, including supply policy expectations, geopolitical disturbances, and potential demand recovery signals [3]. - The market is likely to maintain high volatility until a new, overwhelming driving factor emerges [3].

镍期货市场：美国最新CPI数据不佳提振降息预期市场流动性宽裕，隔夜伦镍收涨1.84%；伦镍最新收 盘报14630美元/吨，上涨265美元/吨，涨幅为1.84%，成交9136手，国内方面，夜盘沪期镍高位窄幅震 荡，尾盘小幅收涨，沪镍主力合约2601最新收报115350元/吨，涨幅为1.56%。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）12月18伦镍库存报253938吨，较前一日库存量减少60吨。 长江镍业网讯：今日沪镍期货全线高开为主；主力月2601合约开盘报114100元/吨，较前一日结算价格 上涨520元，9:10分沪镍主力合约最新收报115490元/吨，上涨1910元；沪期镍开盘高开高走，盘面维持 高位运行；美国最新公布的11月CPI数据显著低于预期，整体CPI同比上涨2.7%，核心CPI同比上涨 2.6%，均创下近年来最低增速。这一数据大幅低于市场预期的3.1%和3.0%，进一步强化了市场对美联 储降息的预期。降息预期升温推动全球市场流动性趋于宽裕，风险资产普遍受到提振，金属市场也不例 外。受此影响，隔夜伦敦金属交易所（LME）镍价收涨1.84%，报14,630美元/吨，盘中最高触及14,665 美元/吨。 供需端现状 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The rebound of nickel and stainless steel prices is due to technical oversold repair and improved macro - liquidity, not a substantial improvement in fundamentals. The nickel market has high inventories and a supply - surplus pattern, so nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. The stainless steel market faces low demand, high inventories, and a declining cost center, and is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On December 18, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 113,600 yuan/ton and closed at 113,940 yuan/ton, a 1.07% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 97,677 (- 41,919) lots, and the open interest was 85,352 (- 8,713) lots. The Indonesian government's proposed nickel ore production target of about 250 million tons in the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB), a significant drop from 379 million tons in 2025 RKAB, promoted the nickel price rebound [1] - In the nickel ore market, there were recent transactions, and prices remained stable. In the Philippines, a 1.4% nickel ore FOB40 transaction was completed at the northern mine Eramen. Shipping efficiency was okay. Downstream factories' production plans remained unchanged, and their price - pressing mentality for raw material nickel ore procurement might ease. In Indonesia, the (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price in December was expected to decline by 0.11 - 0.18 dollars/wet ton. The current mainstream premium was + 25, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 26. Due to the rainy season in Indonesian mines, nickel ore supply decreased, but some iron plants had production - cut plans, so the change in domestic trade premium was limited and expected to remain flat [1] - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 119,800 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average. Jinchuan's supply was tight, and the premium increased. The spot premiums of other refined nickel brands decreased slightly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 350 yuan/ton to 6,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 37,513 (- 748) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 253,998 (+ 690) tons [2] Strategy - With high inventories and a supply - surplus pattern unchanged, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. The strategy is mainly range - trading for the unilateral position, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On December 18, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2602 opened at 12,380 yuan/ton and closed at 12,420 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 101,495 (- 41,522) lots, and the open interest was 133,015 (- 4,171) lots. The slight rebound of stainless steel was due to technical oversold repair and the recovery of raw material nickel prices, but the strength was limited, indicating low market confidence [3] - With the rebound of the futures market, the spot price quotation was repaired, market confidence increased, and the transaction of low - price resources was good. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,650 (+ 50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,650 (+ 50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 330 - 530 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 884.0 yuan/nickel point [3] Strategy - Due to low demand, high inventories, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless steel is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian government has proposed a significant reduction in nickel production for the next year, which could impact the global nickel market and prices [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Nickel prices surged over 2% in early trading, indicating a positive market reaction to the news of production cuts [1] Group 2: Production Plans - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) announced that the government plans to reduce next year's nickel production by 34% compared to this year's total, bringing the output down to 250 million tons [1] - APNI Secretary General Meidy Katrin Lengkey stated that this target is part of the government's planning, but specific implementation details are still unclear [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Lygend Resources (02245) rose over 7% in early trading, reflecting positive market sentiment amid changes in Indonesia's nickel production targets [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Lygend Resources' stock increased by 7.46%, reaching HKD 17.71, with a trading volume of HKD 11.91 million [1] - The company has achieved full production capacity in its 120,000 wet process project in Indonesia, and the first phase of its pyrometallurgical project is in stable production [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The Indonesian government has set a nickel ore production target of approximately 250 million tons for the 2026 work plan and budget, a significant decrease from the 379 million tons target set for 2025 [1] - The Secretary-General of the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) stated that the reduction in production plans aims to prevent further declines in nickel prices [1] - Morgan Stanley's latest report predicts that nickel prices will rebound to USD 15,500 per ton by 2026, with supply and demand expected to grow simultaneously [1] - The second phase of Lygend's pyrometallurgical project, with an annual design capacity of 185,000 tons of nickel iron, is progressing steadily, with all production lines expected to be completed by 2026 [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment is more pessimistic, with nickel and stainless steel prices breaking through support levels and declining. In the short term, the prices of both nickel and stainless steel are expected to remain weak and continue to search for a bottom. For nickel, medium - term attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia and seasonal recovery signals in demand. For stainless steel, medium - term attention should be on the implementation of steel mill production cuts and seasonal recovery signals in demand. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling strategy and be cautious about bottom - fishing, waiting for the supply - demand inflection point before considering long - position layouts [1][3][4]. Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis Futures - On December 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 114,540 yuan/ton and closed at 112,290 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.36% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 157,287 (+27,291) lots, and the open interest was 105,568 (358) lots. The contract showed a pattern of opening high and moving low, breaking through support and reaching a recent low. In the short term, due to the off - season for consumption, downstream demand is difficult to improve significantly, the supply - demand imbalance cannot be changed in the short term, and inventories continue to accumulate [1]. Nickel Ore - According to Mysteel, the nickel ore market is relatively calm, and prices are stable. In the Philippines, northern mines mainly fulfill previous orders, and mines are holding firm on prices. Downstream factories' production plans remain unchanged, and their mentality of bargaining for raw material nickel ore purchases may ease as they need to stock up before the Chinese New Year. In Indonesia, the (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price in December is expected to decline by 0.11 - 0.18 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium remains at +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26. Overall, the domestic trade price of nickel ore is expected to decline [1]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 118,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading is average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands have mostly increased. Low - premium goods are in high demand. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel has changed by 300 yuan/ton to 5,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel has changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 38,693 (821) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 253,308 (-84) tons [2]. Group 4: Nickel Strategy - In the short term, the price is expected to remain weak and search for a bottom through oscillations. In the medium term, attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia and seasonal recovery signals in demand. The operation strategy suggests high - selling, being cautious about bottom - fishing, and considering long - position layouts after the supply - demand inflection point appears. For single - sided operations, range trading is recommended; there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3]. Group 5: Stainless Steel Market Analysis Futures - On December 16, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2602 opened at 12,480 yuan/ton and closed at 12,320 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 210,658 (+33,094) lots, and the open interest was 141,751 (-4,171) lots. The contract continued to follow the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing an oscillating downward pattern and continuing its recent weakness. The daily fluctuation was limited (only 195 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 1.55%). After a brief rise in the morning session, it continued to oscillate downward, and accelerated its decline in the late session, closing near the daily low, forming a relatively long - bodied negative line [3]. Spot - Market sentiment is more pessimistic. Spot prices have followed the decline of futures, but transactions remain difficult. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,650 (-100) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is also 12,650 (-100) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 380 to 580 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 886.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. Group 6: Stainless Steel Strategy - In the short term, the price is expected to remain weak and search for a bottom through oscillations. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production cuts and seasonal recovery signals in demand. The operation strategy suggests high - selling, being cautious about bottom - fishing, and patiently waiting for the supply - demand inflection point before considering long - position layouts. The single - sided operation is neutral; there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [4].

行业方面，华联期货指出，今年的RKAB审批额度为冶炼厂提供了充足的原料保障，印尼MHP产能释放 压制价格，但印尼国内矿业政策改变扰动仍在；10月国内镍进口保持高位，10月印尼镍铁供应维持高 位；10月电解镍产量维持高位，11月份小幅回落。 需求方面，中财期货分析称，不锈钢疲软转为负反馈，三元材料12月排产小幅增加，四季度新能源汽车 补贴退坡冲量临近尾声，不锈钢维持刚需采购心态。 12月16日，国内期市有色金属板块跌多涨少。其中，沪镍期货盘面表现偏弱，截至发稿主力合约震荡下 跌2.62%，报111990.00元/吨。 宏观面，据瑞达期货（002961）介绍，美联储理事米兰再次呼吁加快降息，断言"潜在"通胀接近目标， 称任期或延长。美联储"三把手"：上周降息后，货币政策已为明年做好准备。今年票委柯林斯：上周支 持降息是艰难决定。 对于后市走势，中辉期货表示，海外印尼减产影响逐步减弱，国内外镍库存仍处于偏高水平，下游不锈 钢消费转入淡季，终端需求支撑不足，镍价短期延续偏弱走势。 ...