各国经济数据公布总能引起大家注意，尤其是人均GDP这种直击生活水平的指标。2024年年底，国际货 币基金组织和世界银行陆续放出报告，里面有美国、俄罗斯和中国的数字。这些数据基于全年生产总值 除以人口计算，用美元统一单位。公布时，正好赶上全球经济复苏讨论热潮，美国数据通过商务部汇 总，俄罗斯由联邦统计局处理，中国国家统计局负责。国际组织审核后，在2025年初正式对外，媒体争 相报道，经济学家开始分析差距原因。数据来源可靠，避免汇率大波动影响准确性。 公布过程分阶段，先是初步估计，然后最终确认。美国2024年总量29.2万亿美元，人口3.4亿，算出人均 8.58万美元。俄罗斯总量2.41万亿美元，人口1.46亿，人均1.65万美元。中国总量18.94万亿美元，人口 14亿，人均1.35万美元。这些数字在2025年1月确认，引发股市小波动，美国科技股上涨，俄罗斯能源 股持稳，中国消费相关企业获关注。公布后，G20会议引用数据，讨论贸易合作。专家指出，人口规模 直接拉低中国人均值，而美国移民政策帮了大忙。 事件背后，汇率转换是关键。美国美元强势，让数字看起来更高。俄罗斯卢布受能源价格左右，中国人 民币稳定但出口数据需 ...

Core Insights - The Shenzhen Global Investment Conference held on December 5, 2025, attracted over 50 Fortune 500 companies and other enterprises, showcasing Nanshan's development environment and entrepreneurial ecosystem [3][5] - Nanshan is positioning itself as a hub for innovation and investment, emphasizing its supportive business environment and strategic focus on emerging industries [5][12] Group 1: Event Overview - The event served as a platform for global enterprises to explore investment opportunities in Nanshan, highlighting the area's commitment to innovation and collaboration [3][5] - Participants visited key sites such as Nanshan Smart City and Honghualing Base, which exemplify the region's industrial development [5][10] Group 2: Infrastructure and Development - Nanshan Smart City is designed to foster innovation in information technology, artificial intelligence, and biomedicine, featuring a unique spatial ecosystem [8] - Honghualing Base, covering 118,000 square meters with a total construction area of 992,000 square meters, provides high-quality development spaces for enterprises [10] Group 3: Policy and Support - Nanshan has established a comprehensive policy support system that integrates funding, talent, space, and services to assist enterprises throughout their lifecycle [12] - Recent initiatives include the "Six Coupons" and "Six Ones" policies, which target various stages of business development and talent acquisition [12] Group 4: Future Prospects - Nanshan is focusing on strategic emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, biomedicine, and robotics, aiming to enhance its competitive edge and attract global talent [12] - The district has successfully introduced 378 key projects with a total investment exceeding 150 billion yuan, indicating a steady increase in investment scale compared to the previous year [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition in economic cycles and the implications for wealth management, emphasizing the importance of structural debt and fiscal policy over monetary policy in the context of liquidity changes expected in 2026 compared to 2025 [1] Economic Cycle Analysis Framework - Economic cycle analysis should not be confined to traditional macro asset allocation frameworks, as it emphasizes structural issues rather than aggregate concepts [2] - The economic cycle consists of regular expansions and contractions, categorized into long, medium, and short cycles, including the Kondratieff, Juglar, Kuznets, and Minsky cycles [2] Phases of the Real Cycle - The real cycle is divided into three main cycles: Kondratieff, Juglar, and inventory cycles [3] Kondratieff Cycle: Technological and Energy Revolutions - The Kondratieff cycle spans approximately 60 years, focusing on technological changes and resource dynamics, with current consensus highlighting AI and its supporting infrastructure as key drivers [4] - The cycle illustrates the interplay between technological efficiency and resource consumption, leading to a demand cycle [4] Juglar Cycle: Equipment Investment - The Juglar cycle, lasting 7-11 years, is driven by periodic changes in equipment investment and capital expenditure, with China currently in the early recovery phase of its sixth Juglar cycle [6][7] - Key characteristics of the current Juglar cycle include the transition from old to new driving forces, accelerated technological iteration, and significant industry differentiation [8][9] Inventory Cycle: Transition from Passive to Active Inventory Management - The inventory cycle consists of four stages, with the current phase indicating a shift from passive to active inventory management, influenced by internal market dynamics [10] - Recent data shows a decline in manufacturing PMI, indicating weak demand and a challenging environment for inventory management [10][11] Phases of the Financial Cycle - The financial cycle focuses on real estate and debt cycles, with China still undergoing a significant adjustment in its real estate market since 2020 [13][14] - The Minsky cycle describes a pattern of credit expansion leading to financial instability, with current conditions characterized by low interest rates and a gradual rise in macro leverage [17][18] Asset Prioritization Based on Cycle Phases - The asset allocation strategy for 2026 emphasizes the resonance between the Kondratieff and Juglar cycles, focusing on new productive forces while maintaining defensive positions in a low-interest environment [19] - Specific investment areas include AI computing, industrial robotics, and green energy, while avoiding high-risk assets related to the ongoing real estate adjustment [19]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed a rebound on December 5, with the Hang Seng Index returning to the 26,000-point mark, significantly boosting market sentiment [1] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,085.08 points, up by 149.18 points, representing a 0.58% increase, with a total trading volume of 210.473 billion HKD [3] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 0.84% to 5,662.46 points, while the National Enterprises Index increased by 1.01% to 9,198.3 points, indicating active trading in technology and non-ferrous metal sectors [3] IPO Market Activity - In the first 11 months of 2025, there were 93 new listings in the Hong Kong securities market, a 52% increase from 61 in the same period last year, with IPO fundraising amounting to 259.4 billion HKD, up 228% from 79.1 billion HKD [3] - The total fundraising amount exceeded 259.8 billion HKD, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 228% [3] - The IPO pipeline consists of 306 companies, with 14 having passed the hearing, indicating a sustained interest in new listings as the year ends [3] Sector Analysis - The leading sectors for IPOs towards the end of the year include new energy vehicles, biomedicine, and high-end manufacturing, with 6 out of the top 10 IPOs coming from A-share listed companies [4] - The dual engines driving the IPO activity in Hong Kong are new consumption and hard technology [4] Future Outlook - According to a report by Ernst & Young, the IPO activities in mainland China and Hong Kong are showing growth on a global scale, with a diversified base of cornerstone investors reflecting the international appeal of Hong Kong stocks [4] - A recent survey by the Australian Institute of Chartered Accountants indicated that 66% of respondents expect an increase in new stock activities in 2026, while 63% anticipate continued economic growth in Hong Kong [4] - It is projected that the new stock fundraising amount in Hong Kong will exceed 300 billion HKD next year, solidifying its position as the leader in global new stock fundraising [5]

每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 华创证券指出，科创行业在康波周期下的科技竞赛有望继续打开估值上限，政策聚焦卡脖子与未来 产业制高点，重视端侧稳健增长、应用侧ToB商业化落地。从PEG/资本开支视角看，半导体、光学元 件、PCB、集成电路等细分领域具备配置价值。科技板块短期需关注业绩兑现消化静态高估值，中期则 需观察AI能否成为新一轮康波周期的核心驱动。此外，电子、通信设备等高出海占比且高景气的领域 也值得重视，全球视角下中国制造业的产能出海将提升全球竞争力。 科创综指ETF国泰（589630）跟踪的是科创综指（000680），单日涨跌幅达20%，该指数覆盖科创 板几乎所有符合条件的上市公司，市值覆盖率接近100%。科创综指聚焦于半导体、生物医药、高端制 造等"硬科技"产业，行业分布均衡，能够全面反映科创板上市公司的整体表现与成长潜力。 注：如提及个股仅 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing participation of wealth management companies in new stock IPOs, particularly focusing on technology companies and the STAR Market [1][2][3] - Wealth management products are increasingly adopting a "fixed income + new stock subscription" structure, with over 80% of funds allocated to bond assets and a small portion for new stock purchases, balancing returns and volatility [1][2] - The number of wealth management companies participating in new stock subscriptions remains limited, but leading institutions are setting a demonstration effect, with a noticeable increase in new products since September [1][2] Group 2 - There is a growing trend of wealth management products focusing on new stock subscriptions, particularly in sectors like semiconductors, new energy, and high-end manufacturing, reflecting a strategic alignment with national priorities [2][3] - The frequency of new stock subscriptions by bank wealth management subsidiaries in the STAR Market indicates a shift in asset allocation strategies from traditional fixed income to diversified equity investments [3] - The expectation is that by 2026, new stock subscription products will expand into various lines, competing directly with public offering funds and extending into strategic placements and private equity [3][4]

Core Insights - The Lianyungang Haizhou District has launched a "2+N" industrial fund cluster with a total scale of 4 billion yuan, aiming to inject strong capital momentum into regional industrial upgrades [1][4] - The Lianyungang High-tech Industry Mother Fund, a key component of the fund cluster, has already completed nearly 500 million yuan in investments this year and aims for a total investment of nearly 2 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [4][5] - The fund cluster has successfully facilitated the landing of 9 return investment projects with a total investment exceeding 1 billion yuan, creating a virtuous cycle of "investment - landing - development" [5] Investment Strategy - The fund cluster focuses on precise investment in key sectors such as biomedicine and high-end manufacturing, with investments in 8 quality projects including Zhongwei Biomedicine and Dongpu Precision Ceramics [4][5] - A special investment fund of 100 million yuan has been established to prioritize projects that win innovation and entrepreneurship competitions, creating a mechanism for incubating quality projects [5] Economic Impact - By the end of 2025, five projects including Hanchitech are expected to land, contributing over 1 billion yuan in annual industrial output value and over 100 million yuan in tax revenue for the Haizhou District [5] - The fund cluster aims to enhance the full-cycle refined services and further integrate capital empowerment with ecological cultivation to support high-quality economic development in the region [5]

Core Viewpoint - The proportion of manufacturing directly impacts the health of the industrial system, with too low a ratio leading to hollowing out and weakness, while blindly pursuing a high ratio may cause resource misallocation and structural imbalance, ultimately reducing overall economic efficiency. The aim of "maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing" is to stabilize the industrial foundation and optimize the industrial structure, providing reliable support for high-quality economic development [2][5][10]. Historical Perspective - Manufacturing is the cornerstone of modernization, with its proportion reflecting the integrity of the industrial system and the characteristics of economic development stages. In 1952, the industrial added value accounted for only 17.6% of GDP, making the development of manufacturing a primary task for economic modernization. By 2024, the added value of manufacturing is expected to reach 33.6 trillion yuan, with a GDP proportion of 24.9%, demonstrating the effectiveness of China's leapfrog industrialization [4][3][13]. Current Needs - The proportion of manufacturing is a driving force for high-quality economic development. As global industrial chains undergo rapid restructuring, major power competition focuses on technological innovation and high-end manufacturing. The manufacturing sector is crucial for technological innovation, especially in fields like artificial intelligence and new energy, and its development level directly influences the speed of technological breakthroughs and market support [5][6][15]. Regional Development - Manufacturing supports regional coordinated development by promoting industrial transfer and chain extension, aiding economic growth in central and western regions, and providing a solid foundation for narrowing urban-rural gaps and advancing rural revitalization. It also plays a significant role in job creation, further enhancing social stability [6][15]. Economic Security - The proportion of manufacturing is a critical barrier to national economic security, directly related to the autonomy of the industrial chain, technological innovation capabilities, and overall economic safety. Historical experiences from countries like the U.S. and the U.K. show that deindustrialization can lead to significant risks, including industrial chain disruptions and increased inequality. In contrast, countries like Germany, Japan, and South Korea maintain stable manufacturing proportions to ensure robust industrial foundations and international competitiveness [7][16][15]. Definition of Reasonable Proportion - Maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing means achieving a dynamic balance between "quantity stability" and "quality improvement," focusing on structural optimization, innovation-driven growth, and safety resilience. The current manufacturing proportion in China is 24.9%, which is about 10 percentage points higher than the global average, providing solid support for economic growth, employment stability, and trade surplus [8][10][17]. Implementation Pathways - To achieve a reasonable manufacturing proportion, it is essential to stabilize the manufacturing base, enhance core competitiveness through innovation, optimize spatial layout, and strengthen green and safety resilience. This involves maintaining the manufacturing sector's dominant position in the economy, improving investment stability, and promoting traditional industry upgrades while fostering new manufacturing sectors [11][18][19].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's 2026 outlook for China's economy and stock market indicates a significant shift in global investors' perception, moving from a market lacking clear growth potential to one rich in growth opportunities, particularly in sectors like AI, new consumption, automation, and biotechnology [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investment sentiment towards the Chinese market is improving, with expectations for continued inflows in 2026 following a substantial valuation recovery in 2025 [2]. - The MSCI China Index has shown significant valuation recovery, marking a milestone for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, leading to a renewed interest from global investors [2]. - Passive funds have seen a notable increase in inflows, while active funds remain cautious, with less than 5% of their global investment capacity allocated to Chinese stocks [3]. Group 2: Positive Economic Changes - Three positive changes in the Chinese economy have emerged since the "9·24" policy shift: 1. Enhanced policy responsiveness, with a focus on development and flexible adjustments [4]. 2. Resilience and innovation among Chinese enterprises, showcasing advancements in AI, smart vehicles, and biopharmaceuticals [4]. 3. A shift in global investor focus from dollar assets to diversified allocations, with a growing interest in China's tech innovations [4]. Group 3: Policy and Infrastructure Investment - The 2026 fiscal policy is expected to prioritize infrastructure investments in new areas such as underground pipeline renovations and green transition projects, driven by carbon reduction goals [5]. - Increased support for consumption through measures like birth subsidies and social security enhancements reflects a flexible and rich policy toolbox [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategy - The market's driving logic is set to change in 2026, with a completed valuation recovery and a stable, reasonable valuation level that can attract new capital [7]. - The anticipated easing of global liquidity, including three expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2026, will support stock assets [7]. - Investment strategies should focus on high-growth sectors aligned with China's long-term development, such as high-end manufacturing, AI, and biotechnology, while also including quality dividend-paying sectors like insurance [7].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index's stabilization signals a shift in market sentiment from defensive to offensive, raising interest in the ChiNext board as a potential investment opportunity [1][3] - The ChiNext board, which includes many technology-driven companies in sectors like new energy, biomedicine, and high-end manufacturing, is seen as a concentrated representation of assets with long-term growth potential [3][4] - Historical data shows a strong correlation between A-share growth style and market risk appetite, with the ChiNext typically demonstrating resilience during periods of liquidity easing and economic recovery [3][4] Group 2 - There are significant internal differences within the ChiNext, with some leading companies showing strong profitability and others facing challenges, indicating that opportunities are more structural rather than broad market rallies [4] - External factors, such as the end of the U.S. interest rate hike cycle and a weaker dollar, are favorable for capital inflows into emerging markets, supporting valuation expansion for the ChiNext [4] - The overall price-to-earnings ratio of the ChiNext remains high compared to the main board, and potential economic recovery shortfalls or significant adjustments in overseas tech stocks could disrupt growth stocks [4][5] Group 3 - The ChiNext presents a window for observation, offering long-term investors opportunities for gradual positioning rather than immediate explosive growth [5] - The true opportunities lie in companies that are making significant technological advancements and gaining influence in the global supply chain, which are essential for restoring market confidence [5]