鼎泰高科 20250701 摘要 鼎泰高科在 PCB 行业稳健增长，2023 年行业产值下降 15%的情况下， 公司销售收入仍同比增长约 9%，销量亦增长约 9%，业绩表现优于同行， AI 端应用需求爆发驱动订单显著增加，尤其 2025 年以来需求进一步增 长。 AI 服务器对 PCB 板提出更高要求，层数提升至 20-30 层，加大 HDI 技 术应用，高多层板需预钻工序，使用 TAC 涂层钻针，单价高 30%，且 AI PCB 板材加工只用新针，单针钻孔数量减少，需求成倍增长。 公司积极扩充产能应对 AI 需求，2024 年底月度产能 8,000 万支，至 2025 年 6 月达 9,300 万支，预计第三季度扩至 1 亿支，年底或更高， 通过自制装备快速响应市场，成本低于进口设备。 AI 订单增加改善产品结构，高价位涂层钻针销售占比从 2023 年的 24% 提高到 2024 年的 31%，目前达 40%，极小径钻针占比从 2022 年的 13%提高到 2024 年的 21%，产品均价在 2025 年第一季度明显上升。 2025 年第一季度钻针均价从 2024 年的 1.16 元提高到 1.18 元，提 ...

金融股方面，今天虽努力，但我认为只是反复，不会再玩命往上加速，比如证券、银行、保险，基本在 这盘整。证券拉起指数后，今日通过缩量方式跌穿阳线，说明金融股走弱，所以指数行情基本不会有， 只有一部分热点行情。若弱势板块后期走弱，市场将不断回落。今天把弱品种基本都抛了，留些强的再 看，没跌破5日线的，这是目前短线策略。 从小时级别看，今日收小阳线，昨天强调可能是小十字线或小阳十字，基本吻合，明天可能出现阴线或 小阴线、中阴线。因为市场未跌破3400点（此处原表述"340012点"疑有误）前无法定义走坏，周五大跌 后市场会有反弹，昨天强调还有向上一笔或冲高回落，今日这一笔基本到位，很有可能再冲一下再回 落，所以明天市场可能收带上引线的阴线，重点看向下这一笔的力度和量。 很多投资者着急市场何时能做波段行情，这次盯着创业板，等创业板再跌回到60天线就可以波段建仓， 别着急，再忍耐忍耐。我让大家管住手不是害大家，这地方看不到波段机会，着急进来可能被套。五一 之前全网看空，我一直给大家打气，到3400点压力位我开始偏谨慎，我认为没毛病。市场现在确实不 好，但后边有很多重要会议，等指数回落，再带大家波段杀进来。别追涨，追涨毁一 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.39% to close at 3457.75 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 14,660 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 208 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. Sector Performance - Sectors such as innovative drugs, gold, and electronic cloth within the PCB industry chain saw significant gains. The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, including increased support for R&D, inclusion in basic medical insurance, and enhanced clinical application [2]. Competition and Rewards - The 65th session of the simulated stock trading competition, known as the "掘金大赛," began, with participants starting with a simulated capital of 500,000 yuan. The competition runs from July 1 to July 11, with various cash rewards for participants based on their performance [4][5]. Investment Insights - Some experienced participants believe that if the Shanghai Composite Index closes above 3500 points, the likelihood of entering a main upward trend will significantly increase [6]. Additionally, sectors such as copper-clad laminates, non-ferrous metals, high-temperature superconductors, and BeiDou navigation are viewed as promising investment opportunities [8]. Participation Benefits - Participants in the competition receive various benefits, including access to a personalized "火线快评" for five days upon successful registration, which provides insights into market events, investment logic, and company analysis. There are also opportunities to join a competition group for sharing valuable information and investment strategies [12].

昨日A股半年度收官，从上半年市场表现来看，主要股指全线上涨;其中沪指上半年涨2.76%，北证50指数大涨39.45%一度 创出历史新高，国证2000指数涨超10%。从板块来看，上半年题材概念获资金追捧，AI大模型、人形机器人、新消费、创新 药、固态电池等多个热点轮番活跃；此外，近20只银行股在上半年创出历史新高。整体上，中小盘股表现更佳，全市场3700多 只个股上半年上涨，逾百股涨超100%，化工股联合化学大涨440%，问鼎上半年"股王"。 市场焦点股长城军工（9天7板）高开4.58%，芯片产业链的兴业股份（12天7板）高开1.57%、好上好（4板）高开4.81%， PCB板块中京电子（9天6板）平开、澳弘电子（2板）高开7.98%，固态电池概念股大东南（5板）高开6.30%，大金融板块弘业 期货（5板）高开4.19%，军工股中光防雷（创业板3板）高开1.36%、国瑞科技（创业板4天3板）高开0.06%，稳定币概念股霍 普股份（创业板2板）高开2.84%、杭州园林（创业板4天2板）高开2.51%。 金融界7月1日消息，周二A股开盘，三大股指走势分化，其中沪指涨0.04%报3445.85点，深成指跌0.06%报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating report indicates that Shenzhen Xingsen Quick Circuit Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Xingsen Technology") maintains a stable credit rating of AA, reflecting its leading position in the domestic PCB prototype and small batch board sector, despite facing significant financial challenges due to high upfront costs in semiconductor projects and slow order integration [2][4][5]. Company Overview - Xingsen Technology is recognized as one of the few domestic manufacturers capable of mass production of FCBGA packaging substrates, maintaining a technological edge in the industry [2][17]. - The company has a diversified product application across various sectors, including communication, industrial control, medical electronics, and consumer electronics, with a stable customer base [4][17]. Financial Performance - The company reported total assets of 145.69 billion and total liabilities of 59.44 billion as of March 2025, with operating revenue of 15.80 billion for the year [2]. - The net profit for 2024 was a loss of 5.31 billion, reflecting the impact of high costs associated with semiconductor projects and insufficient order volume [3][5]. - The company's debt-to-equity ratio increased, indicating rising financial leverage and debt repayment pressure [5][19]. Industry Environment - The PCB market is expected to recover in 2024, driven by demand from AI servers and consumer electronics, with a projected global market value of 73.6 billion, representing a 5.8% year-on-year growth [11][12]. - The domestic PCB market in China is anticipated to grow from 41.2 billion to 50.8 billion from 2024 to 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.3% [11][12]. - The industry faces challenges such as high raw material costs and competitive pressures, which may impact profit margins [15][19]. Competitive Position - Xingsen Technology ranks seventh among domestic PCB manufacturers according to the CPCA, showcasing its competitive strength [17]. - The company has invested significantly in R&D, with 4.42 billion allocated in 2024, and has received national awards for its technological advancements [18][19]. - Despite the competitive landscape, Xingsen Technology's PCB business saw a revenue increase of 5.11% in 2024, primarily due to recovery in the consumer electronics sector [19].

板块方面证券板块继续调整，明天有可能还会延续调整的格局，这个板块之前就一直跟大家去讲没有持 续性，可惜很多人没有听，现在大概率又被套在了高位，炒股真的是不能够头脑发热。那么军工今天走 强，周末出了消息，这个板块我觉得要重视，特别是老股民，一定要把这个观念给调整过来，现在的军 工跟之前是完全不一样的，那么我们现在军工行业一不留神已经成了世界第一了，以后会有越来越多的 国家来买我们的军工产品，那么它现在是一个成长板块，而且才刚刚开始，以后这个板块有可能会跟一 年前的银行一样，会涨到大家无法想象，所以说大家还是要重视一下这个板块。 我们做一下复盘以及明天的推演。和讯投顾邓攀表示，在周五缩量之后，今天市场继续缩量了582亿， 军工今天受消息的刺激走强，它的逻辑发生了变化，开始走出了成长性，就盘面来说还是在走轮动，而 且市场的活跃度相较于前几天来说的话是有所降低的。那么短线其实上短线今天有两个5板标的，我们 观察一下明天谁会接近600，最近的监管比较放松，超预期的是可以继续去做的。 那么CPU和PCB这两个板块，下午有资金做一个获利了结，筹码出现了松动，那么这两个板块我觉得应 该是边打边撤，不要去想着赚最后一个铜板，比 ...

Macro Economic Group - In the first five months of the year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 27,204.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, which is a decline of 2.5 percentage points compared to the first four months [4] - The profit of the manufacturing industry in the first five months increased by 5.4% year-on-year, but this is a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the first four months; in May, the profit decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, a drop of 14.7 percentage points from April [4] - The profit margin for operating income in the first five months was 5.0%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the first four months; the inventory of finished products at the end of May increased by 3.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from April [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - According to recent research updates from Huahong Company, the second quarter saw a concentrated negotiation on foundry prices with downstream customers, with a target of increasing the average sales price by over 10% for the year [7] - Domestic copper-clad laminate companies have seen a cumulative price increase of about 20% since the beginning of the year, with expectations for the total increase this year potentially reaching 40%-50% due to strong downstream demand [7] - The demand for AI chips has rebounded, benefiting domestic high-end HDI PCB, copper-clad laminate, and optical communication companies, indicating an optimistic outlook for the domestic PCB industry chain [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - The Xiaomi YU7 model achieved record sales, with over 200,000 units reserved within three minutes and nearly 290,000 units in one hour, setting a new sales record in China's automotive history [9] - The strong performance of YU7 is attributed to its powerful product features, competitive pricing compared to Tesla's Model Y, and a favorable market environment due to limited supply [9][10] - The introduction of YU7 is expected to reshape the SUV market competition, set new benchmarks for range, and accelerate price restructuring among competitors [10] Consumer Group - From January to May 2025, Yiwu's exports continued to show high growth, with a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, particularly strong in trade with Africa, Latin America, and ASEAN [12] - The market's enthusiasm for investment is reflected in the high demand for commercial spaces in the jewelry industry, with significant interest in the global trade center project in Yiwu, which is nearing completion [12] - The upcoming opening of the six districts in Yiwu is expected to boost rental prices and attract new businesses in emerging sectors [12]

算力硬件股反复活跃 景旺电子3天2板创历史新高 智通财经6月30日电，算力硬件股反复活跃，PCB方向领涨，景旺电子走出3天2板，创历史新高，此前 澳弘电子涨停，源杰科技、中际旭创、生益电子、新易盛等涨幅靠前。消息面上，中信建投研报称，英 伟达召开股东大会瞄准AI基础设施平台商定位，海内外头部厂商持续发力基础设施建设以满足激增的 推理算力需求，ASIC市场空间预期持续上调，算力产业链保持高景气。 ...

Core Viewpoints - The current market valuation may not support a purely liquidity-driven rally, but unexpected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China could act as catalysts for market sentiment [1] - Structural opportunities will be a key topic during the mid-year reporting season, while index opportunities may need to wait until late Q3 or Q4 [1] - The electrification process is accelerating globally, with a focus on the full industrial chain's monetization capabilities in the electrification and AI sectors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent market changes indicate that there is no shortage of money, with trading volumes reaching approximately 1.5 trillion yuan [2] - The market is poised for potential upward movement, contingent on three triggers: attractive valuations, strong current and future fundamental expectations [2][3] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile yet upward trend, supported by the influx of medium to long-term funds and favorable policies [7][11] Group 2: Sector Focus - Key investment themes include domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and sectors that have been underweighted by funds [5][7] - The technology sector is anticipated to regain market attention, particularly with the upcoming IPOs of tech companies and innovations in AI and military industries [1][6] - The focus on high-dividend assets and the technology sector, especially those related to AI capital expenditures, is expected to provide investment opportunities [16] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The market is currently experiencing a phase of structural improvement, but it is not yet at the level of a bull market [6][10] - The potential for a bull market is contingent on either a positive shift in earnings or policy direction by Q3 [10] - The overall economic recovery is expected to be driven by domestic consumption and export growth, with a cautious outlook on external risks [4][10]

本周市场表现强势，超出我们预期。1）短期催化主要来自于分母端。近期联储降息预期提升、人民币 汇率升值及以伊军事冲突趋平稳，特朗普访华预期等因素叠加，边际推升风险偏好。2）谁是增量资 金？主动权益公募新发基金边际回暖、杠杆资金快速跟随，此外从银行板块6月中下旬以来的加速行情 推测，险资资金入市进程也可能有所提速；但ETF、外资未有明显增量。 联系人：陈果/郑佳雯 后续如何演绎？市场表现仍是由资金端/估值端主导。战略上我们保持看多，维持下半年指数"更上一层 楼"的判断，但战术上我们认为短期行情未必会演绎持续急涨，而是依然将呈现一定的震荡特征。机构 中长期资金入市+低利率时代下居民金融资产配置比例提升的趋势是中期逻辑，有望使市场震荡中枢整 体上移，短期脉冲式波动也可能阶段性超市场预期。但当前阶段是否能开启资金的正反馈螺旋仍有待观 察：一是今年以来的结构性行情都未走向持续抱团而是呈现轮动特征，表征资金环境对估值容忍度有一 定约束；二是各方增量资金尚未形成明显合力，更多采取观望、被动跟随策略，而非主动流入；三是除 了内需下滑担忧加剧外，7月中报业绩期、全球贸易环境波动及过于乐观的降息预期能否兑现均存在不 确定风险。 责 ...