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达利欧年度复盘:美元贬值,美股高回报只是“计价幻觉”,黄金跑赢一切
华尔街见闻· 2026-01-06 11:49
Core Insights - The main investment narrative for 2025 is not the strong performance of the US stock market, but rather the significant changes in currency values and the global shift in asset allocation, with gold emerging as the true winner [1][5][12]. Currency Value Changes - The US dollar has depreciated significantly against other currencies, with declines of 13% against the Swiss franc, 12% against the euro, and 4% against the Chinese yuan. This depreciation creates an illusion of asset appreciation when measured in local currency [6][12]. - Gold has established itself as a major reserve asset, taking on the role of the second-largest reserve currency, highlighting the critical impact of currency movements on wealth transfer [6][12]. Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index recorded an 18% total return in USD, driven by a 12% increase in earnings and a 5% rise in price-to-earnings ratios. However, when measured in stronger currencies, the performance appears significantly weaker [8][15]. - The "Seven Giants" within the S&P 500 saw a 22% earnings growth, while the remaining 493 stocks experienced a 9% growth, indicating a disparity in profit distribution favoring capital owners over workers [8][15]. Global Market Dynamics - Non-US markets, including Europe, China, and Japan, outperformed US stocks, with emerging markets showing an overall return of 34%. This reflects a significant capital shift away from US assets [5][14]. - The interest of foreign investors in US dollar-denominated assets is declining, leading to a preference for non-US equities and bonds [6][14]. Political and Geopolitical Factors - The political landscape is shifting from multilateralism to unilateralism, increasing military spending and sanctions, which diminishes the attractiveness of US dollar assets [10][25]. - The growing wealth gap, exacerbated by inflation, is likely to lead to political unrest and conflict between left and right factions in the US, impacting market stability [10][20]. Non-Liquid Markets - Non-liquid markets such as venture capital, private equity, and real estate are under pressure, facing significant debt rollover challenges and a potential rise in liquidity premiums [9][19]. - The current low liquidity premium may lead to a decline in the value of non-liquid assets compared to liquid ones, posing risks for investors [9][19].
2025基金经理榜单回顾:牛市能跑赢主动权益吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 11:35
Core Insights - The active equity TOP100 fund manager list, created by Dianqi Investment and Zero City Investment, has been published annually for four years, attracting attention from various institutional investors [1] - In 2025, the performance of the active equity fund manager list fell short of the Wind Equity Fund Index, with a return of 32.4% compared to the index's 33.19% [4][5] - The underperformance is attributed to the departure of several growth-style fund managers and the overall market conditions favoring growth factors [5][6] Performance Summary - The active equity TOP100 fund manager list included 76 funds, with a constructed equal-weighted portfolio reflecting real holding experiences [2] - The 2025 performance comparison shows the following returns: - Dianqi & Zero City Active Equity TOP100: 32.4% - Wind Equity Mixed Fund Index: 33.19% - CSI Equity Fund Index: 30.37% [5] - The cumulative excess return over four years remains at 8.39% compared to the Wind Equity Fund Index [5] Reasons for Underperformance - Seven fund managers, primarily from growth styles, left mid-year, significantly impacting the portfolio's performance [5][6] - The year 2025 saw extreme performance differentiation, with many industry funds contributing high returns, while the list only included all-market funds [5][6] - The average management tenure of fund managers in the list is around eight years, with younger managers generally outperforming older ones in a bull market [6] Fund Performance by Style - The performance of various styles in 2025 includes: - Active Equity Growth Style: 46.61% - Active Equity Value Style: 19.78% - Active Equity Balanced Style: 30.98% [8] - The performance of industry-specific funds also outperformed corresponding industry ETFs [9] Notable Fund Managers - Top-performing fund managers in 2025 include: - Du Meng: Morgan Emerging Power Mixed A - 92.51% - Gao Nan: Yongying Kexin Mixed A - 92.30% - Yi Yucheng: Wan Jia Zhen Xuan Mixed A - 66.38% [9][10] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that active equity will continue to perform well in 2026, with fund managers who adapt and strive for alpha likely to gain further market recognition [13]
沪指迎13连阳,突破10年新高,中证A500ETF(159338)收涨1.8%,近20日净流入近140亿元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 11:20
Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved a 13-day winning streak, reaching a 10-year high, with the CSI A500 ETF (159338) rising by 1.8% and attracting nearly 14 billion yuan in net inflows over the past 20 days [1] Group 1: Economic Context - The current period is seen as a critical buildup phase for the "14th Five-Year Plan," with expectations of continued loose monetary and proactive fiscal policies in China until 2026, which may lead to a further recovery in total demand [1] - Globally, fiscal expansions in the US, Europe, and Japan are progressing simultaneously, contributing to gradual improvements in demand [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The CSI A500 Index, with its overweight in advanced manufacturing, information technology, communications, pharmaceuticals, and raw materials, is positioned to deliver relative returns during the economic recovery phase [1] - Compared to the CSI 300, the CSI A500 emphasizes industry balance and leading companies in specific sectors, offering a more diversified style and higher growth exposure, which can provide a better Beta base during the industrial structure upgrade cycle [1] Group 3: Performance Metrics - As of December 31, 2025, the CSI A500 Index has increased by 464.28% since its base date, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which has risen by 361.15%, resulting in an excess return of 103.13% [1] - The number of accounts for the Guotai CSI A500 ETF is the highest among its peers, being more than three times that of the second-ranked product, indicating a growing interest from investors [1]
鹏扬基金集中调整基金经理团队 总经理杨爱斌离任1只基金
Xi Niu Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 11:19
值得一提的是,杨爱斌现任鹏扬基金董事、总经理,戴杰现任公司权益投资部总经理助理,李沁现任公司混合投资部副总经理。 此次,戴杰离任鹏扬成长先锋混合基金引起市场关注。 鹏扬成长先锋混合基金成立于2021年11月,截至2025年12月31日,该基金A类份额成立以来的单位净值下跌31.51%,近3年单位净值下跌5.57%,近1年单位 净值增长4.12%。 近期,鹏扬基金旗下多只基金变更基金经理。 | 离任基金经理姓名 | 李沁 | | --- | --- | | 离任原因 | 因工作需要 | | 离任日期 | 2025-12-25 | | 转任本公司其他工作岗位 | | | 的说明 | | | 是否已按规定在中国基金 | 是 | | 业协会办理变更手续 | | | 是否已按规定在中国基金 | 否 | | 业协会办理注销手续 | | 2025年12月27日,鹏扬基金发布公告称,基金经理李沁离任鹏扬景浦一年持有混合基金、鹏扬景润一年混合基金、鹏扬景瑞三年持有混合基金、鹏扬景泽一 年持有混合基金等4只基金。基金经理吴西燕离任鹏扬景合六个月混合基金、鹏扬景欣混合基金、鹏扬添利增强基金等3只基金。基金经理戴杰离任鹏扬成长 先锋 ...
圆信基石(厦门)基础设施不动产股权投资基金正式设立
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2026-01-06 11:17
本报讯 (记者昌校宇)1月5日,目标总规模55亿元的"圆信基石(厦门)基础设施不动产股权投资基 金"在厦门正式设立。这是全国首只地方政府引导设立的REITs主题基金,凸显厦门在深化投融资体制改 革、盘活存量资产领域迈出新步伐,也是金圆集团积极响应国家深化金融供给侧结构性改革号召、服务 城市能级跃升的创新实践。该基金目标总规模为55亿元,期限10年,将重点投向上市REITs项目。 圆信永丰基金作为金圆集团的核心成员单位,在REITs投研领域积淀深厚。该公司将权益投资领域的"宏 观—中观—微观"分析框架应用于REITs研究,以"三位一体"投研逻辑精准锚定资产核心价值,为旗下资 管产品提供区域、行业、宏观等方面的投研支持,筑牢REITs投研专业基础。此外,圆信永丰基金为实 现在REITs投研领域的早布局、深耕耘,已于2024年组建专门REITs投资部门,并组建专业队伍。同 时,该公司还创建了"REITs投研系统",组织搭建REITs投研框架和体系,搜集市场和项目相关的经营、 交易、估值等方面数据,通过系统实现对底层资产经营情况的跟踪及REITs细分行业变化分析。目前, 该系统已初步搭建完成,覆盖77只上市REITs ...
再度站稳4000点!十年主动权益基金最高暴赚近6倍,你的基金在榜吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 11:17
进一步分析业绩领先的基金群体特征可见,在近十年收益排名前二十的主动权益基金中,灵活配置混合型基金占据主导, 共计12只;积极投资股票基金与偏股混合型基金各有4只。从基金管理人角度看,景顺长城基金旗下产品上榜数量暂时领 先,华商基金、东吴基金、易方达基金、大成基金等公司亦有两只及以上产品出现在榜单之中。 风险提示:基金有风险,投资需谨慎。 去十年,A股市场以行业市值占比观之,Wind统计数据显示,以房地产、石油石化为代表的传统行业影响力减弱,电子、 通信等科技行业市值规模大幅跃升。在市场跌宕与结构变迁中,究竟哪些主动管理型权益基金产品穿越周期,真正为投资 者创造了长期稳健的回报? | | | 动权益基金十年期收益TOP2 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LID TO TOWELL | 昼五间称 | 十年期收益率 | | | 000390 | 华商优势行业混合A | 571.91% | 灵活配置混合基金 | | 166301 | 华商新趋势优选混合 | 515.06% | 灵活配置混合基金 | | 001387 | 国联新经济混合A | 502.61% | 灵活配置混合基金 | | ...
新年第一天28只新基金抢发!2025年谁家基金“卖得”最火?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 11:17
Core Insights - The first trading day of 2026 saw the launch of 28 new funds, marking the beginning of the year's fund sales [1] - The trend of active fund issuance continues from 2025, with a total of 46 new public funds expected to be launched in the week, predominantly equity funds [2][3] Fund Issuance Overview - In 2025, a total of 1,549 new funds were established, raising over 1.2 trillion yuan, making it the second-highest year in history for new fund issuance [3] - Equity funds, including stock and mixed funds, accounted for over 1,100 new funds and raised more than 620 billion yuan, representing over half of the total issuance [3] - Bond funds also performed well, with 263 new funds launched, raising nearly 444 billion yuan [3] - FOF products gained traction, with 89 new funds established, totaling over 84.5 billion yuan [3] Competitive Landscape - Leading fund management firms were particularly active in the issuance market in 2025, with E Fund launching 68 new funds, the highest in the industry [3] - Following closely, Fortune Fund launched 64 new funds, while Huaxia Fund and Huitianfu Fund each launched over 50 new products [3] - In terms of total established funds and asset scale, Huaxia Fund led with 73 new funds and approximately 100.7 billion yuan in net asset value, while E Fund ranked second with 84.5 billion yuan [3]
东田微:接受永赢基金等投资者调研
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2026-01-06 11:02
每经头条(nbdtoutiao)——原指导价34.99万的宝马裸车价22.5万元,多家车企还补贴购置税!2026开 年车市火爆,销售从早到晚忙到没空吃饭 (记者 王晓波) 每经AI快讯,东田微发布公告称,2026年1月6日,东田微接受永赢基金等投资者调研,公司董秘兼财 务总监李广华、证券事务代表胡玉兰参与接待,并回答了投资者提出的问题。 ...
2025基金经理榜单回顾:牛市能跑赢主动权益吗?
点拾投资· 2026-01-06 11:01
Core Insights - The article discusses the performance of the TOP100 active equity fund managers from 2022 to 2025, highlighting that the list has been closely monitored by various institutional investors and has consistently outperformed the Wind Equity Fund Index until 2025, where it fell short by 0.79% [1][7][9]. Performance Overview - In 2025, the TOP100 fund managers' portfolio achieved a return of 32.4%, while the Wind Equity Fund Index returned 33.19% [7][8]. - The cumulative excess return over four years remains at 8.39% compared to the Wind Equity Fund Index [7]. Reasons for Underperformance - The departure of seven growth-style fund managers from the list negatively impacted the portfolio's performance, as their exit led to a reduction in contributions to returns [9]. - The year 2025 saw significant performance divergence among fund managers, with the Wind Equity Fund Index benefiting from various sector funds that delivered high returns, while the TOP100 list was more balanced and lacked sector-specific funds [9][10]. - The market in 2025 was characterized as a bull market, where newer fund managers generally outperformed seasoned ones, and the average management tenure of the fund managers in the list was around eight years [10][11]. Fund Manager Performance by Style - All selected funds within the list outperformed their respective category indices, with notable performances in growth and small-cap styles [12][13]. - Specific fund categories showed impressive returns, such as the active equity growth style achieving 46.61% and the active equity small-cap style achieving 42.61% [13][19]. Future Outlook - The company expresses optimism for 2026, anticipating that active equity will continue to perform well and potentially outperform indices, as dedicated and adaptive fund managers are expected to gain further market recognition [20][21].
杭州再放大招!力争“十五五”基金集群突破5000亿元
(原标题:杭州再放大招!力争"十五五"基金集群突破5000亿元) 继去年11月启动杭州润苗基金后,杭州在基金集群打造方面再放大招! 近日,杭州发布《关于做强做优做大"3+N"杭州产业基金集群推动杭州特色现代化产业体系高质量发展 的实施意见》(以下简称《实施意见》),力争"十五五"时期"3+N"基金集群规模突破5000亿元。 在投资方式方面,三只政府投资基金可采取行业母基金、子基金、专项子基金等投资方式,原则上同股 同权。其中,杭州科创基金可视情况设置提前退出、投资让利、风险补偿等条款。除经杭州市级国资监 管机构事前备案外,国企基金采取直接投资方式。出资比例方面,杭州市级国有资本对天使投资类、科 技成果转化类子基金的出资比例不超过40%,对其他类型子基金的出资比例不超过30%,并购重组类、 纾困类基金除外。 财政每年统筹安排50亿元 杭州"3+N"基金集群包括杭州科创基金、杭州创新基金、杭州并购基金等三只政府投资基金,以及N只 市属国有企业投资设立的基金(以下简称"国企基金")。 根据《实施意见》,杭州将聚焦重大战略、重点领域和市场不能充分发挥作用的薄弱环节,持续优化产 业基金体系;围绕杭州特色现代化产业体系部 ...