Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range fluctuations. The PX benefit will remain stable in the short - term, and attention should be paid to subsequent industry meetings. For PTA, if demand does not improve sustainably, the upward space will be limited. The PR market has sufficient supply and weak demand [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: As of October 29, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $60.48 per barrel, up 0.55%; Brent crude oil was $64.92 per barrel, up 0.81%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $571.13 per ton, up 0.44%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $681.00 per ton, up 0.22%. The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $818.00 per ton, up 0.49% [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,636 yuan per ton, up 0.48%; the settlement price was 4,610 yuan per ton, down 0.09%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,535 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. The CCFEI price index of PTA (domestic) remained unchanged, while the external price index was $601.00 per ton, down 2.12% [1]. - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,652 yuan per ton, up 0.51%; the settlement price was 6,614 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The domestic PX spot price was 6,451 yuan per ton, down 1.13% [1]. - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,726 yuan per ton, up 0.25%; the settlement price was 5,710 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35%; in the South China market, it was 5,780 yuan per ton, down 0.34% [1]. - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,450 yuan per ton, up 0.30%; POY was 6,775 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; FDY68D remained unchanged at 6,950 yuan per ton; FDY150D remained unchanged at 6,700 yuan per ton; polyester staple fiber was 6,360 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; polyester chips remained unchanged at 5,605 yuan per ton; bottle - grade chips were 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35% [2]. Spread Information - On October 29, 2025, the PXN spread was $246.88 per ton, up 0.61%; the PX - MX spread was $137.00 per ton, up 1.86%. The TA near - far month spread was - 48 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4 yuan; the TA basis was - 101 yuan per ton, a decrease of 22 yuan. The PX basis was - 201 yuan per ton, a decrease of 108 yuan. The PR basis in the East China market was 14 yuan per ton, a decrease of 34 yuan; in the South China market, it was 54 yuan per ton, a decrease of 34 yuan [1]. Operating Conditions - As of October 29, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate was 80.09%, up 0.63%; the polyester factory load rate was 89.28%, unchanged; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 73.31%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.06%, up 0.20% [1]. Production and Sales Rates - On October 29, 2025, the production and sales rate of polyester filament was 48.87%, down 13.63 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 43.57%, up 0.07 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 37.06%, down 20.55 percentage points [1]. Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton PTA device of Dushan Energy's No. 4 (design capacity) started trial operation on October 25, 2025. After the new device runs stably, the new one will be put into operation and the old one will be shut down [2]. Market Analysis - **PX**: Overnight crude oil was weak, and the oil price cooled down after horizontal adjustment. The domestic PX operating load remained high, and the PTA main suppliers' symposium was about to be held. The PX2601 contract closed at 6,652 yuan per ton. Market rumors about a refinery's shutdown had no follow - up, and overseas devices ran smoothly. The call for anti - involution in the industry had little impact on PX supply and demand in the short - term [2]. - **PTA**: The industry meeting boosted market sentiment. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,636 yuan per ton. The PTA market fluctuated narrowly, and the spot basis strengthened slightly under the expectation of production reduction. The new PTA device in East China started trial production, but the anti - involution expectation offset its impact. It may be difficult to coordinate a new production reduction plan, and the upward space will be limited without continuous demand improvement [2]. - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5710 - 5830 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated, the market atmosphere was weak, and downstream purchasing willingness was low. The PR2601 contract closed at 5,726 yuan per ton. The supply of the bottle - chip market was relatively sufficient, and the demand was weak [2].

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, Gansu Province's industrial enterprises produced 169,000 tons of petroleum coke, representing a 1.6% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, but an increase of 1.1 percentage points in growth rate compared to 2024, and 2.9 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - In June 2025, Gansu's petroleum coke production was 14,000 tons, a significant decline of 56.9% year-on-year, with a growth rate 169.5 percentage points lower than June 2024, and 54.5 percentage points lower than the national average [2] Production Analysis - Gansu's petroleum coke production accounted for 1.1% of the national total of 15,674,000 tons in the first half of 2025 [1] - In June 2025, Gansu's production represented 0.5% of the national total of 2,549,000 tons [2]

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, Tianjin's industrial enterprises produced a total of 20.434 million tons of crude oil, representing a 3.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024, although the growth rate has slowed by 2.3 percentage points from the previous year [1] - Tianjin's crude oil production accounted for 18.8% of the national output of 108.478 million tons during the same period, indicating a relatively strong position within the national context [1] Monthly Analysis - In June 2025, Tianjin's crude oil production reached 3.468 million tons, marking a 3.1% increase year-on-year, but the growth rate has decreased by 4.5 percentage points compared to June 2024 [2] - The June production represented 19.1% of the national crude oil output of 18.198 million tons for that month, again highlighting Tianjin's significant contribution to the national total [2] Statistical Context - The data pertains to large-scale industrial enterprises, defined as those with annual main business revenues of 20 million yuan or more [6]

Core Insights - In June 2025, China's fuel oil production reached 3.628 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with a growth rate that is 21.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1][4] - For the first half of 2025, the total fuel oil production was 21.608 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.8%, but the growth rate was 13.6 percentage points higher compared to the previous year [4] Monthly Production Analysis - June 2025 fuel oil production was 3.628 million tons, showing a 2.1% increase year-on-year [1] - The growth rate in June 2025 was significantly higher than the previous year's rate by 21.2 percentage points [1] Cumulative Production Analysis - From January to June 2025, the cumulative fuel oil production was 21.608 million tons, which is a decrease of 2.8% compared to the same period last year [4] - The cumulative growth rate for the first half of 2025 improved by 13.6 percentage points compared to the previous year [4]

Group 1: Overall Market and Macroeconomic Situation - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and will end balance - sheet reduction in December, but Powell's hawkish remarks on December rate - cut prospects led the market's probability of a December rate cut to drop from 95% to 65% [1][3] - South Korea promised to invest $350 billion in the US to get tariff preferences for the auto and semiconductor industries, and the US - Canada trade negotiation was suspended [1] - The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and significantly lowered its economic growth forecast [1] - China's Q3 GDP growth rate declined as expected, and the GDP deflator showed a recovery trend. Fiscal policy has clearly taken action to support the economy [2] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was positively received by the stock market, and the adjustment of key work deployment emphasized the importance of technology, opening - up, and focusing on people's livelihood to boost domestic demand [2] Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0991 on the previous trading day, up 15 basis points, and the central parity rate was raised by 13 basis points [3] - Optimistic expectations of Sino - US trade negotiations and the central bank's guidance on the exchange rate are key factors for the RMB's strength against the US dollar. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.13, and import enterprises are advised to adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 7.09 mark [4] Group 3: Stock Index - The stock index closed higher on the previous trading day, with small - cap stocks performing strongly. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 1.19%. The total trading volume of the two markets increased by 10.817 billion yuan [5] - The release of the full - version of the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal" boosted market sentiment. The stock index is expected to be affected by the Fed's rate - cut expectations, with short - term volatility increasing but overall remaining relatively strong [5] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures opened higher, but the TL contract closed down. The stock market was strong, but the bond market was not affected. The yield of 1 - 3 - year bonds decreased by 3 - 4 basis points. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy on dips [6] Group 5: Container Shipping (European Routes) - On October 29, the container shipping index (European routes) futures market closed higher across the board. The main contract EC2512 rose 5.08%. The market volume increased significantly, and the position of the main contract increased to 31,906 lots [8] - Bullish factors include geopolitical support, improved macro - situation, and a stronger spot index. Bearish factors include uncertain spot demand, a loose supply - demand pattern, and weak European economic data. The futures are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but beware of technical corrections [9][10][11] Group 6: Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - On Wednesday, precious metal prices continued to fluctuate and adjust. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3941.7 per ounce, down 1.04%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11,338 yuan per kilogram, up 1.91% [13] - The Fed's hawkish rate cut in December led to a significant cooling of rate - cut expectations. In the short term, precious metals are in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities on dips and continue to hold existing long positions cautiously [13][15] Group 7: Copper - Overnight, Comex copper closed at $5.19 per pound, down 1.35%; LME copper closed at $11,090 per ton, up 0.47%; SHFE copper closed at 89,130 yuan per ton, up 1.23%. The 89,200 level may be the high for the year [16][17] - Glencore lowered its 2025 copper production target due to a decline in ore grade at some mines. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 87,000 and the pressure at 89,200 for the December contract [16][17][18] Group 8: Aluminum and Related Products - For aluminum, the Fed's rate cut and Sino - US trade talks have mixed effects. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to maintain a short - position strategy. For cast aluminum alloy, it has a strong follow - up relationship with Shanghai aluminum, and it is recommended to pay attention to the price difference [18][19][20] Group 9: Zinc - The zinc price maintained a high - level shock on the previous trading day. The smelting end's willingness to cut production in November has increased, and the low inventory provides support for the price. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [21][22] Group 10: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel main contract rose 0.34%, and the stainless - steel main contract rose 0.31%. The nickel ore policy in Indonesia has become stricter, and the downstream demand for new energy is strong. Stainless steel may fluctuate widely due to cost and demand factors [22][23] Group 11: Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract was strongly volatile on the previous trading day, closing at 286,700 yuan per ton. Technically, the 290,000 level is a stable resistance. Fundamentally, supply is weaker than demand, and it is recommended to hold long positions [23][24] Group 12: Carbonate Lithium - On Wednesday, the main contract of carbonate lithium futures closed at 82,900 yuan per ton, up 1.54%. The market demand is good, and the futures price is expected to be supported in stages [25] Group 13: Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,355 yuan per ton. The high - lead price has a limited upside. It is recommended to use an option double - selling strategy to earn option premiums [25][26][27] Group 14: Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar has been oscillating upward recently, supported by rising iron ore and coking coal prices and improved downstream demand. However, the upward momentum is weak due to weak fundamentals and weak iron ore prices. Crude steel production is expected to decline slightly [28] Iron Ore - The iron ore market has a loose supply - demand relationship. Supply is abundant, and inventory is high, while demand is weak. After the impact of macro - events fades, the price is expected to continue to be under pressure [29] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply has tightened, and coke enterprises have started the third round of price increases. In the short term, coke prices may be strong, but the potential negative feedback from the steel market will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices [30] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese provide limited support, and the upward space is limited due to high inventory and weak demand [30][31] Group 15: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - WTI crude oil futures rose 0.55% to $60.48 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 0.77% to $64.32 per barrel. The decline in EIA inventory and Sino - US trade optimism led to a small increase in oil prices, but in the long - term, supply surplus may put pressure on prices [32][33] LPG - The LPG market rose slightly due to macro - favorable factors. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, with supply affected by port arrivals and demand showing little change [34][35] PTA - PX - The PX - TA - PR sector was strongly volatile due to the "anti - involution" sentiment. PX supply is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter, and PTA is in a relatively surplus situation. In the short term, it is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, the industrial structure contradiction needs to be resolved [35][36][37] MEG - Bottle Chips - The fundamentals of ethylene glycol have marginally improved, but the valuation is under pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to sell call options on rallies [39][40] Methanol - The methanol 01 contract is not optimistic from a fundamental perspective. It is recommended to reduce short - put positions and sell call options on the 01 contract [40][41] PP - The PP market is in a situation of oversupply. Although the supply has slightly decreased in the short term, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [43][44] PE - The PE market is also facing supply - demand pressure. Supply is expected to increase, and demand growth is limited. It is mainly affected by cost and macro - factors and is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [46][47] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to a high - supply and low - demand situation. Styrene has inventory pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider narrowing the processing spread on rallies [47][48] Fuel Oil - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the current high - cracking situation is a strong - expectation and weak - reality pattern, and the upside of cracking is limited. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the fundamentals are weak, but the valuation is low and there is an expectation of repair [48][49][50] Asphalt - The asphalt market showed no more - than - expected performance during the peak season. The short - term price was boosted by cost, but the spot basis continued to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see or try short - positions when the price reaches the resistance level [51][52] Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - The rubber market was boosted by macro - sentiment. The downstream performance is good, but there is still inventory pressure and uncertainty in the long - term supply and demand. In the short term, it is strong, but the upward drive is limited [52][53][54] Urea - The urea futures price rose with the improvement of macro - sentiment, and the spot sales also improved. However, in the long - term, it still faces pressure without export quotas [55] Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - For soda ash, the supply is expected to remain high in the long - term, and the price is limited by high inventory but supported by cost. For glass, the inventory is high, and the spot sales have improved after price cuts. The game in the 01 contract may continue until near delivery [56][57]

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, with a short-term focus on observation [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, with a short-term focus on observation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has slightly weakened, and the market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil has been weak recently. The strength pattern of high and low sulfur has changed marginally, and the high-low sulfur spread has rebounded slightly from a low level [1] - After the continuous rebound of crude oil prices, resistance has emerged again, and the FU and LU disk prices have followed suit. Currently, there are still macro uncertainties, so caution is advised [1] - If there are no major problems with Russian supply, there is no shortage expectation in the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and the upward valuation space is limited [1] - With the restart of the RFCC unit of the Dangote refinery, the local supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to ease marginally [1] Market Analysis Summary - The main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 1.2% at 2,796 yuan/ton, and the main contract of the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.55% at 3,246 yuan/ton [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil recently show a pattern of "high-sulfur stronger than low-sulfur", but the market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has shown signs of slight weakness. While the unilateral price has followed the decline of crude oil, the outer market month spread and crack spread have also declined [1] - The fundamentals and market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil have been weak recently [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range fluctuations. The PX view is scored 0, the PTA view is scored 0, and the PR view is scored 0 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On October 29, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $60.48 per barrel, up 0.55%; Brent crude oil was $64.92 per barrel, up 0.81%. The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $571.13 per ton, up 0.44%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea was $681.00 per ton, up 0.22%. The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port was $818.00 per ton, up 0.49% [1] - **PTA**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,636 yuan per ton, up 0.48%; the settlement price was 4,610 yuan per ton, down 0.09%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,535 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. The CCFEI price index of PTA outer - market on October 28 was $601.00 per ton, down 2.12% [1] - **PX**: The CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6,652 yuan per ton, up 0.51%; the settlement price was 6,614 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The domestic PX spot price was 6,451 yuan per ton, down 1.13% [1] - **PR**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5,726 yuan per ton, up 0.25%; the settlement price was 5,710 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35%; in the South China market, it was 5,780 yuan per ton, down 0.34% [1] - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester fiber DTY was 8,450 yuan per ton, up 0.30%; POY was 6,775 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; FDY68D was 6,950 yuan per ton, unchanged; FDY150D was 6,700 yuan per ton, unchanged; polyester staple fiber was 6,360 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; polyester chip was 5,605 yuan per ton, unchanged; bottle - grade chip was 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35% [2] Production and Sales - The production - sales ratio of polyester filament on October 29, 2025, was 48.87%, down 13.63 percentage points; polyester staple fiber was 43.57%, up 0.07 percentage points; polyester chip was 37.06%, down 20.55 percentage points [1] Operating Rate - On October 29, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.09%, up 0.63 percentage points; polyester factories was 89.28%, unchanged; bottle - chip factories was 73.31%, unchanged; Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.06%, up 0.20 percentage points [1] Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton (design capacity) PTA device of Dushan Energy No. 4 started trial operation on October 25, 2025. After the new device runs stably, the new one will be put into operation and the old one will be shut down [2] Important News and Logic - **PX**: Overnight crude oil was weak. After short - term digestion of geopolitical and macro - emotions, there was no new positive news. The PX CFR China price on October 29 was $818 per ton, with cost - end oil prices fluctuating in a range. The domestic PX operating load remained high. The PTA main - supplier symposium was about to be held, and participants were still confident in the future supply - demand outlook. The PX2601 contract closed at 6,652 yuan per ton. Market rumors of a refinery's possible shutdown had no follow - up. Overseas devices were stable. The PX profit was expected to fluctuate stably in the short term [2] - **PTA**: The industry meeting continued to boost market sentiment. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,636 yuan per ton. Traders awaited PTA meeting news. Crude oil failed to recover losses. PTA prices fluctuated narrowly. Under the expectation of production cuts, the spot basis strengthened slightly. The new PTA device in East China started trial production. The anti - involution expectation offset the impact of new capacity. It might be difficult to coordinate new production - cut plans. The increase in the terminal loom operating rate and good polyester filament sales were positive for the market [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang market was 5,710 - 5,830 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated, with a weak market atmosphere and low downstream purchasing willingness. The PR2601 contract closed at 5,726 yuan per ton. The bottle - chip market supply was relatively abundant, and downstream demand was weak [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bearish on crude oil, LPG, L, PP, ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, and natural gas [1][3][6] - Bearish consolidation on L and PP [1] - Bearish rebound on PVC, glass, and soda ash [1][6] - Cautiously bullish on PX and PTA [1][3] Core Views - The core drivers of the oil market are the supply surplus in the off - season and macro - positive factors, with the oil price center expected to decline [9]. - LPG is affected by the cost - end oil price correction and the low basis, with the price likely to correct [14]. - L and PP face cost support weakening and high inventory pressure, with bearish consolidation trends [19][24]. - PVC has low - valuation support but faces supply - demand surplus contradictions, with a bearish rebound situation [28]. - PX has short - term supply - demand improvement but limited cost - end rebound height, with opportunities for both long and short positions [30][31]. - PTA has slightly improved supply and demand, but the medium - and long - term supply is expected to be loose, with short - term rebound opportunities [33][34]. - Ethylene glycol has a low valuation but lacks upward drivers, with a short - term weakening trend [36][37]. - Methanol has high inventory pressure, but there are opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [40][42]. - Urea has a relatively loose supply, with short - term upward pressure and long - term opportunities to go long at low prices [44][46]. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded slightly, with WTI up 0.55%, Brent up 0.77%, and SC down 1.54% [8]. - **Basic Logic**: Sanctions on Russia and macro - positive factors support the oil price, but the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to decline [9]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ may increase production in December, Indian oil imports increased in September, and US commercial crude inventories decreased last week [10]. - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions and consider adding short positions lightly. Focus on the SC range of [455 - 470] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On October 29, the PG main contract closed at 4,287 yuan/ton, up 0.61% [13]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost - end oil price. The short - term geopolitical risk has eased, and the cost - end has corrected. The basis is at a low level [14]. - **Strategy**: Try short positions lightly. Focus on the PG range of [4250 - 4350] [15]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [18]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is weakening, supply is loose, and demand replenishment power is insufficient [19]. - **Strategy**: The industry sells hedges at high prices, and short positions are preferred at high prices in the high - production cycle. Focus on the L range of [6950 - 7100] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan [23]. - **Basic Logic**: The basis is weakening, upstream device maintenance has increased, but the demand side faces high de - stocking pressure, and oil - based cost support is insufficient [24]. - **Strategy**: The industry sells hedges at high prices, and short positions are followed by short - term cost rebounds. Focus on the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Low - valuation support exists, but the supply - demand surplus contradiction is prominent. Attention should be paid to whether upstream marginal devices can reduce production [28]. - **Strategy**: The industry conducts hedging at high prices, and short - term long positions can be lightly participated in. Focus on the V range of [4600 - 4800] [28]. PX - **Market Review**: The PX futures price showed an upward trend [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices have reduced their loads, demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken, and the cost - end oil price rebound is limited [30]. - **Strategy**: Try long positions lightly in the short term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices, and focus on expanding downstream processing fees. Focus on the PX range of [6620 - 6720] [31]. PTA - **Market Review**: The PTA futures price showed a slight increase [32]. - **Basic Logic**: New device production is imminent, but processing fees are low, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. Terminal demand has improved slightly but is unstable, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in November [33]. - **Strategy**: Chase long positions lightly in the short term, focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds in the medium and long term, and focus on expanding TA processing fees. Focus on the TA range of [4610 - 4680] [34]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The ethylene glycol futures price showed a decline [35]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, overseas devices have increased their loads slightly, supply pressure is expected to increase, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in November. The valuation is low but lacks upward drivers [36]. - **Strategy**: Participate in short - term long positions lightly and pay attention to short - selling opportunities during rebounds. Focus on the EG range of [4060 - 4140] [37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: High inventory suppresses the spot price [40]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure is still high, demand has improved slightly, and cost support is weak and stable. Pay attention to the impact of Iranian "gas restrictions" [40]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously, focus on going long on the 01 contract at low prices, and focus on MA1 - 5 reverse spreads. Focus on the MA range of [2235 - 2285] [42]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures price showed a slight increase [43]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, demand has improved slightly, inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists. Be vigilant against downward risks [44]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously, and try long positions lightly in the medium and long term. Focus on the UR range of [1635 - 1660] [46].

摘要：【图】2025年6月广西壮族自治区燃料油产量数据 2025年6月燃料油产量统计： 燃料油产量：3.7 万吨 同比增长：-48.1% 增速较上一年同期变化：低116.9个百分点 据统计，2025年6月广西壮族自治区规模以上工业企业燃料油产量与上年同期相比下降了48.1%，达3.7 万吨，增速较上一年同期低116.9个百分点，增速较同期全国低50.2个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企 业燃料油产量362.8万吨的比重为1.0%。 详见下图： 图1：广西壮族自治区燃料油产量分月（当月值）统计图 2025年1-6月燃料油产量统计： 燃料油产量：26.2 万吨 同比增长：-37.7% 增速较上一年同期变化：低67.3个百分点 据统计，2025年1－6月，广西壮族自治区规模以上工业企业燃料油产量与上年同期相比下降了37.7%， 达26.2万吨，增速较上一年同期低67.3个百分点，增速较同期全国低34.9个百分点，约占同期全国规模 以上企业燃料油产量2160.8万吨的比重为1.2%。详见下图： 图2：广西壮族自治区燃料油产量分月（累计值）统计图 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [2] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of asphalt remain weak and market drivers are limited. Crude oil price rebound is blocked, leading to an adjustment in the asphalt market and increasing the cautious sentiment in the spot market. The abundant supply of local refineries in Shandong continues to pressure the asphalt spot prices in Shandong and surrounding areas. The market is in a narrow - range oscillation state, waiting for important macro - events [1] Market Analysis - On October 29, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2601 in the afternoon session was 3,274 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.21% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 196,026 lots, a decrease of 1,242 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 173,766 lots, an increase of 7,144 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3,406 - 4,750 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3,200 - 3,620 yuan/ton; South China: 3,360 - 3,580 yuan/ton; East China: 3,410 - 3,500 yuan/ton. The asphalt spot prices in North China and Shandong decreased, while those in other regions remained relatively stable [1] Figures - Figures related to asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest) are presented, with the unit of yuan/ton [3][10][5][7] - Figures related to asphalt futures (index closing price, main contract closing price, near - month contract closing price, near - month spread, unilateral trading volume and open interest, main contract trading volume and open interest) are presented, with the unit of yuan/ton or lots [3][23][20][24] - Figures related to asphalt production (domestic weekly production, independent refinery production, production in Shandong, East China, South China, North China) are presented, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][32][30][38] - Figures related to asphalt consumption (road consumption, waterproof consumption, coking consumption, ship - fuel consumption) are presented, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][39][40] - Figures related to asphalt inventory (refinery inventory and social inventory according to Longzhong) are presented, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][41]