存储产业链的主要逻辑是什么？未来的市场前景如何？ 当前存储产业链的主要逻辑在于 AI，尤其是在训练和推理两个方面都有显著拉 动。我们预计 2026 年存储价格将保持强势，最看好的是涨价后的设备产业链 以及设计端的兆易创新。从资本开支层面来看，全球 DRAM 行业 2026 年的资 本开支增长率预计为 14%，达到 613 亿美元，而 NAND 则增长 5%，达到 220 亿美元。三星和海力士更侧重于 HBM DRAM，美光则双线并进，而闪迪 和凯霞由于没有 DRAM 业务，在 NAND 方面的投资更为积极。 从需求侧来看， 无论是训练还是推理，对存储的需求都在增加。训练数据需要从 HDD 或 SSD 加载到 DRAM，再进入 HBM 和 GPU 进行计算，同时模型训练过程中需要频繁 保存和加载数据，这使得 HBM 成为核心收益方向。而在推理端，KV Cache 和 RAG（Retrieval-Augmented Generation）也带来了大量需求。KV 2026 年初，预计部分厂商的市场份额将集中落地和交易，MatePad CPX 等产品以及正交方案都在向马 9 升级，Q 布的使用可能性大幅增加， 部分材 ...

美光科技股价年内涨幅已高达215.97%。该公司于12月17日发布的2026财年第一季度财报，成功扭转了 此前英伟达与博通的市场阴霾——这两家公司尽管财报业绩表现强劲，股价却依旧出现下跌。 美光这份财报及给出的第二季度业绩指引均十分亮眼，引发市场积极反响。财报发布后的首个交易日， 美光股价收涨10.2%，报248.55美元。 美光科技2026财年第一季度财报核心亮点 营收：136.4亿美元，去年同期为87.1亿美元 公认会计准则（GAAP）净利润：52.4亿美元，摊薄后每股收益4.60美元 非公认会计准则（Non-GAAP）净利润：54.8亿美元，摊薄后每股收益4.78美元 经营现金流：84.1亿美元，去年同期为32.4亿美元 美光科技2026财年第二季度业绩展望 营收：187.0亿美元±4亿美元 毛利率：67.0%±1.0% 运营开支：15.6亿美元±2000万美元 摊薄后每股收益：8.19美元±0.20美元 财报发布后，美国银行分析师Vivek Arya及其团队针对美光股价发表了观点。 美银分析师上调美光目标价，评级升至"买入" 该团队将美光2026、2027、2028三个财年的备考每股收益预期分别上调6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report analyzes the recent doubling of NAND contract prices since Q1 2025, assessing the sustainability of this cycle through historical NAND cycles, supply-demand calculations under AI scenarios, and the impact on the HDD industry [2] Demand Side - The resonance between cloud and edge AI is driving a significant increase in SSD demand, with higher requirements for write speed, IOPS, capacity, and durability due to AI model training and inference [4] - Global NAND Flash shipments are expected to approach 2000EB by 2028, maintaining nearly 30% high growth over the next three years [4][19] Supply Side - Cautious capacity expansion is expected to support prolonged price increases, with a stable yet evolving oligopoly in the NAND market [4] - Major manufacturers are adopting a cautious approach to NAND capacity expansion, focusing on high-density and high-capacity technology transitions [21] - Supply tightness is anticipated to last at least until the end of 2026, with NAND prices likely to remain high [22][23] HDD Market - HDD remains a cost-effective choice for cold storage in cloud computing, with a projected market growth rate of approximately 15% over the next three years [5] - The cost advantage of HDDs is expected to diminish as NAND technology advances, with current price differences between HDDs and SSDs ranging from 4 to 6 times [5] NAND Cycle Review - The NAND market exhibits long cycles with significant price volatility, characterized by severe supply-demand mismatches and differentiated expansion strategies among manufacturers [8] - The current cycle is marked by a supply contraction driving price recovery, followed by structural demand growth driven by AI [14][23] AI Demand - AI is significantly boosting SSD demand, with specific requirements for high-speed writing, IOPS, and large capacity in various training and inference scenarios [15][16] - The anticipated growth in AI applications is expected to sustain high demand for SSDs over an extended period [16] Current Cycle Position - NAND prices are expected to remain elevated in 2026, with data centers and enterprise-level applications showing the highest price tolerance [22] - The demand from data centers is projected to be the largest source of future SSD demand, with long-term supply agreements already in place with major cloud service providers [22][23]

自今年2月重返公开市场以来，闪迪(Sandisk)凭借人工智能驱动的强劲需求迎来爆发式增长。机构预测，其营收有望在两年内实现高达76%的增 长，股价表现更是远超行业平均水平。这家从西部数据独立出来的闪存制造商，正充分受益于AI数据密集型工作负载所带来的结构性机遇以及供 给相对受限的市场格局。 自今年年初以来，闪迪股价已累计上涨约560%。近期在美光科技发布超预期财报的提振下，其股价走势进一步走强。公司已于去年11月被正式纳 入标普500指数。 Benchmark研究分析师Mark Miller在最新报告中指出，当前由AI驱动的高景气供需格局预计将持续至2026年之后。基于这一判断，该机构维持对 闪迪的"买入"评级及260美元目标价，并同步上调了其2026财年与2027财年的盈利预测。 闪迪的业绩增长前景，突显了AI基础设施投资热潮对上游存储产业链的强劲拉动。预计到2030年，数据中心及AI相关基础设施投资规模将突破1 万亿美元，这为闪迪高容量、高能效的固态硬盘(SSD)产品提供了持续且广阔的市场空间。 BiCS8技术构筑竞争壁垒 闪迪的企业级固态硬盘（eSSD）业务虽尚处发展早期，但其BiCS8技术正逐步构建 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the technology sector, particularly in storage and AI-related investments, indicating a favorable investment environment [5]. Core Insights - The storage industry remains robust, with Micron Technology (MU) reporting significant revenue and profit growth, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates. MU's revenue for FY26Q1 was $13.64 billion, with an adjusted gross margin of 56.8% and adjusted net profit of $5.48 billion, indicating strong demand and pricing power in the HBM segment [2][11]. - The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is advancing the "Genesis Mission," a national initiative aimed at leveraging AI to accelerate scientific discovery and enhance national security, which is expected to create substantial demand for AI technologies [19][20]. - Google's release of the Gemini 3 Flash model demonstrates a significant reduction in costs while enhancing performance, indicating a shift towards more efficient AI applications [16][17]. Summary by Sections Key Technology Company Updates - Micron's FY26Q1 results showed a revenue of $13.64 billion, surpassing expectations by 5.3%. The company has locked in pricing and supply for HBM for the 2026 calendar year, predicting a total addressable market (TAM) CAGR of approximately 40% for HBM, reaching $100 billion by 2028 [2][11]. - Robinhood introduced new AI-driven features, including personalized portfolio summaries and a predictive market function, enhancing user engagement and investment capabilities [12][14]. Overseas Technology Industry Dynamics - Google launched the Gemini 3 Flash model, which combines high-speed processing with low costs, aimed at improving everyday task handling and agent workflows [16][17]. - The DOE's collaboration with 24 organizations, including major tech firms, aims to utilize AI for scientific advancements and energy innovation, marking a significant public-private partnership in the AI domain [19][20][21]. Weekly Perspective - The Nasdaq saw a slight increase, supported by macroeconomic indicators such as lower-than-expected CPI and unemployment rates. The report highlights the potential for AI capital expenditures to shift from cloud vendors to sovereign markets, particularly in storage and optical communication sectors [5][29].

周林泓 Amber Zhou 黄雨昕 Yuxin Huang amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com yx.huang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 20 Dec 2025 中国策略 China Strategy 缩量蓄势延续，逢低布局春季行情 Volume Contraction Signals Consolidation; Buy the Dips Ahead of the Spring Rally 上周我们认为，中国市场将由反弹后期转入震荡蓄势阶段，但整体回调空间有限，仍属于逢低布局的窗口。行业 层面，我们认为内需消费获得利好支撑，在震荡环境下有望跑出相对收益。本周港股和 A 股探底回升，恒生指数跌 1.1%，恒生科技跌 2.8%，上证综指基本持平，创业板指跌 2.3%，科创 50 跌 3%；其中必需消费和非银领涨。 海外市场方面，美 CPI ...

证券日报网讯 12月19日，佰维存储在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司坚持全球化的发展战略， 在美洲、印度与欧洲等中国以外重点市场建立本地化服务、生产交付与市场营销团队，通过与当地合作 伙伴的深度协同与持续创新，快速响应本地需求并稳步提升目标市场份额。公司的产品销往超过60个国 家及地区，遍及中国香港、美洲、东南亚及欧洲。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

点击 最 下方 " 推荐"、"赞 "及" 分享 "，"关注"材料汇 添加 小编微信 ，遇见 志同道合 的你 正文 第一部分 关于研究与投资的心得体会分享 我先就自己从业这么多年做研究和投资的一些体会，和大家做一个分享。 一、时间是每个人唯一稀缺的资产，要学会研究最重要的问题 做研究最为重要的是时间管理，我们每一个人最稀缺的就是时间。研究工作面对的是一个非常复杂 的、非结构化的海量信息。时间的稀缺性与信息的无限性就会派生出两个问题： 1、要研究最重要的问题 我一直说，我们研究的应该是大问题，要把握的是产业与企业的大方向，并在判断与决策上获得大 概率上的正确。概括起来就是，大问题、大方向、大概率。 无论是资深的分析师还是学校刚毕业的初学者，都一样要去学习站在产业的最高处、最前沿，以企 业老板的角度去思考大问题，即使在一些细枝末叶的问题上做得多么完美，其价值也是有限的。大 问题上的模糊准确远远比小问题上的完美精确更为重要。 2、在正确的路径上持续积累 解决效率问题的第一步是要树立科学合理的正确的研究方法，然后通过不断的学习，去持续优化这 个思维框架与方法体系。要在正确的路径上持续地积累，守正出奇。不能在丛林里面的羊 ...

行 业 报 告 行业点评 存储周期强劲，美光业绩超预期 强于大市( 维持) 行情走势图 杨钟 投资咨询资格编号 S1060525080001 yangzhong035@pingan.com.cn 郭冠君 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524050003 GUOGUANJUN625@pingan.com.cn 徐勇 投资咨询资格编号 S1060519090004 XUYONG318@pingan.com.cn 事项： 近日，美光科技发布FY26Q1财报，FY26Q1公司Non-GAAP营收达136.4亿美 元 ， 同 比 +57% ， 环 比 +21% ， Non-GAAP 净 利 润 达 54.8 亿 美 元 ， 同 比 +169%，环比+58%。 平安观点： 电子 相关研究报告 【平安证券】行业动态跟踪报告*电子*存储周期跟踪 复盘，AI催生景气向上*强于大市20251124 【平安证券】行业深度报告*电子*AI系列专题报告 （九）存储：主流存储迎来全面涨价，企业级产品需 求持续向好*强于大市20251106 证券分析师 2025年12月19日 行 业 点 评 研 究 报 告 求，122TB和245TB容量的 ...

Group 1 - The US stock market saw a collective rise on December 18, with major technology stocks performing well, particularly the Trump Media Technology Group, which surged by 41.93% after announcing a merger agreement with TAE Technology [1][2] - Tesla's stock increased by over 3%, adding approximately $53.6 billion (around 377.4 billion RMB) to its market capitalization [2] - The merger between Trump Media Technology Group and TAE Technology will be executed through an all-stock transaction, with both companies' shareholders expected to own about 50% of the combined entity post-merger [2] Group 2 - The latest data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November rose by 2.7% year-on-year, which was lower than the market expectation of 3.1% [4] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.6%, marking the lowest level since early 2021 and also below the anticipated 3% [4] - Following the CPI report, there was a slight increase in the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in January, with traders estimating a 28.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut, up from 26.6% prior to the inflation data release [4] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs' global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions, Kay Haigh, stated that the low inflation data would not impact the Federal Reserve's decision-making, as they are more focused on the December CPI data set to be released in mid-January [5]