8月18日，国内期市油脂油料板块多数飘红。其中，棕榈油期货主力合约开盘报9520.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，棕榈油主力最高触及9672.00元，下方探低9520.00元，涨幅达1.96%附 近。 据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚8月1-15日棕榈油出口量为537183吨，较上月同期出 口的399366吨增加34.5%。 船运调查机构AmSpec数据显示，马来西亚8月1-15日棕榈油出口量环比增长21%。 上周五中午有消息显示，印尼动用军队已经查封了300多万公顷的非法油棕种植园，约占印尼官方种植 总面积的20%。 后市来看，棕榈油期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 宝城期货分析称，马来西亚棕榈油局7月供需数据影响中性偏多，印尼马来纷纷上调出口关税，支撑价 格韧性。目前印尼生物柴油政策虽然实施时间存在不确定性，但需求增长仍未棕榈油价格提供长期支 撑。国内棕榈油期价缺乏自身驱动，整体跟随国际棕榈油期价走势，短期仍是易涨难跌走势。 正信期货表示，产地供需及政策均有支撑，棕榈油破位上行，前期低位多单继续持有。 ...

Core Insights - The domestic oilseed market shows mixed performance, with palm oil futures rising over 2% while peanut futures decline slightly [1] - As of August 18, the main contracts for various oilseeds have shown the following price changes: canola meal up 1.13% to 2592.00 CNY/ton, canola oil up 0.85% to 9862.00 CNY/ton, and palm oil up 2.02% to 9596.00 CNY/ton [1] Price Trends - On August 18, the opening and closing prices for key oilseed futures were as follows: - Soybean oil: opened at 8558.00 CNY, previous close at 8534.00 CNY - Palm oil: opened at 9520.00 CNY, previous close at 9460.00 CNY - Canola oil: opened at 9783.00 CNY, previous close at 9757.00 CNY - Canola meal: opened at 2557.00 CNY, previous close at 2546.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of August 15, warehouse receipts for various oilseed futures showed the following changes: - Soybean oil: 14840 contracts, down 2130 from the previous day - Palm oil: 1420 contracts, unchanged - Canola oil: 3487 contracts, unchanged - Soybean meal: 10925 contracts, unchanged - Canola meal: 9821 contracts, unchanged [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis and spot prices for key oilseed products as of August 15 are as follows: - Canola oil: spot price 9876.67 CNY, futures price 9779 CNY, basis 97 CNY - Canola meal: spot price 2648.33 CNY, futures price 2563 CNY, basis 85 CNY - Palm oil: spot price 9428 CNY, futures price 9406 CNY, basis 22 CNY - Soybean meal: spot price 3092 CNY, futures price 3137 CNY, basis -45 CNY [4]

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Report Information - Report Title: Oilseeds and Oils Industry Daily Report - Report Date: August 15, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views Oils - **Palm Oil**: Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are strongly supported by favorable export data, with expectations to break through the 4500 ringgit resistance level. However, concerns about increasing production in the second half of the month and potential inventory growth at the end of the month may lead to a slowdown in the 4500 - 4580 ringgit range. Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are also on a strong, volatile trend, testing the 9500 yuan mark. If it can hold above this level, it may reach 9700 yuan by the end of the month. Otherwise, it could retreat to the 9000 - 9200 yuan range. Both international and domestic markets are expected to maintain a near - strong, far - weak pattern [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: Spot prices fluctuate with the market, and basis quotes remain mostly stable. Some regions have seen good contract sales for October and later due to uncertainty about soybean arrivals in the fourth quarter. With the start of school in August and Mid - Autumn Festival preparations, market demand is increasing, and short - term futures consolidation may support a slight increase in basis quotes [3]. Oilseeds - **Soybean Meal**: South American soybean premiums have declined, and the sharp drop in rapeseed meal futures has led some institutions to take profits. The main contract of Dalian soybean meal has filled the previous gap and may strengthen again after stabilizing in the 3100 - 3120 range. Spot prices have decreased by 30 - 60 yuan/ton, but due to narrowing crushing margins and a lag in spot price increases, the downward adjustment space for traders is limited. Short - term domestic soybean meal inventories are slowly decreasing, and the price trend is upward [14]. Summary by Directory Oils Month - to - Month and Variety Spreads - **Palm Oil**: P 1 - 5 spread is 282 yuan/ton, down 38; P 5 - 9 is - 208 yuan/ton, up 46; P 9 - 1 is - 74 yuan/ton, down 8. - **Soybean Oil**: Y 1 - 5 spread is 442 yuan/ton, down 16; Y 5 - 9 is - 462 yuan/ton, up 12; Y 9 - 1 is 20 yuan/ton, up 4. - **Variety Spreads**: Y - P 01 is - 848 yuan/ton, up 66; Y - P 05 is - 1008 yuan/ton, up 44; Y - P 09 is - 754 yuan/ton, up 78. Y/M and OI/RM spreads also show various changes [4]. Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Futures prices: Palm oil 01 is 9460 yuan/ton, up 0.98%; Palm oil 05 is 9180 yuan/ton, up 1.03%; Palm oil 09 is 9394 yuan/ton, up 1.08%. - International price: BMD palm oil main contract is 4412 ringgit/ton, up 0.2%. - Spot price: 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 9320 yuan/ton, up 10. The basis is - 58 yuan/ton, down 104 [5]. Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Futures prices: Soybean oil 01 is 8534 yuan/ton, down 0.63%; Soybean oil 05 is 8098 yuan/ton, down 0.81%; Soybean oil 09 is 8562 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. - International price: CBOT soybean oil main contract is 52.11 cents/pound, down 2.42%. - Spot price: Shandong first - grade soybean oil is 8580 yuan/ton, down 60. The basis is 120 yuan/ton, up 56 [11]. Oilseeds Futures Prices - **Soybean Meal**: Bean meal 01 is 3137, down 20 (- 0.63%); Bean meal 05 is 2822, down 23 (- 0.81%); Bean meal 09 is 3083, down 17 (- 0.55%). - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal 01 is 2546, down 60 (- 2.3%); Rapeseed meal 05 is 2487, down 36 (- 1.43%); Rapeseed meal 09 is 2649, down 37 (- 1.38%). - **CBOT Soybeans**: 1031, unchanged. - **Offshore RMB**: 7.1812, up 0.0011 (0.02%) [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - **Soybean Meal**: M01 - 05 spread is 312, down 1; M05 - 09 is - 255, up 1; M09 - 01 is - 57, unchanged. - **Rapeseed Meal**: RM01 - 05 spread is 83, down 29; RM05 - 09 is - 163, down 16; RM09 - 01 is 80, up 45. - **Spot and Futures Spreads**: The spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal is 484, up 10; the futures spread is 471, up 31 [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum will be held on August 19-20, focusing on the agricultural products and industrial sectors, particularly the peanut and polyester industries, addressing the impacts of trade changes and the role of futures markets in these sectors [1][2] Group 1: Agricultural Products (Oils and Fats) Forum - The forum will discuss how the futures market can assist the oils and fats industry in managing price risks amid geopolitical tensions, extreme weather, and supply chain restructuring [1] - The futures market is seen as a tool for precise pricing and risk hedging, providing transparent price benchmarks and efficient hedging tools for enterprises [1] - Establishing a highly participatory and international peanut futures market can enhance China's market influence and pricing power [1][2] Group 2: Polyester Industry Forum - The polyester industry can utilize futures and derivative tools to effectively manage production and processing cost volatility, reducing losses from price fluctuations in raw material procurement and product inventory [2] - The use of internationalized products like PTA futures allows domestic companies to lock in processing profits in collaboration with overseas clients, enhancing the overall competitiveness of the global trade chain [2] - The forum aims to deepen cooperation with international partners in the polyester industry and promote the establishment of overseas delivery warehouses for futures products in key export destinations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed and oil futures market experienced a decline on August 15, with significant drops in prices for various commodities, particularly canola meal, which fell over 3% [1] Price Movements - Canola meal futures dropped by 3.34% to 2550.00 CNY/ton - Canola oil futures decreased by 1.79% to 9746.00 CNY/ton - Soybean meal futures fell by 1.17% to 3127.00 CNY/ton - Peanut futures declined by 1.16% to 7840.00 CNY/ton [1] Futures Market Data - The opening and closing prices for various contracts on August 15 are as follows: - Soybean oil: Opened at 8500.00 CNY, closed at 8550.00 CNY - Palm oil: Opened at 9382.00 CNY, closed at 9450.00 CNY - Canola oil: Opened at 9820.00 CNY, closed at 9924.00 CNY - Soybean meal: Opened at 3150.00 CNY, closed at 3164.00 CNY - Canola meal: Opened at 2599.00 CNY, closed at 2638.00 CNY - Peanut: Opened at 7880.00 CNY, closed at 7932.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of August 14, warehouse receipts for soybean oil decreased by 5200 contracts to 16970 contracts - Palm oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1420 contracts - Canola oil warehouse receipts were stable at 3487 contracts [3] Additional Warehouse Data - Soybean meal warehouse receipts increased by 2000 contracts to 10925 contracts - Canola meal warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 9821 contracts - Warehouse receipts for soybean one decreased by 63 contracts to 12802 contracts - Warehouse receipts for soybean two remained unchanged at 2900 contracts [4] Basis Data - As of August 14, several contracts exhibited a 'backwardation' phenomenon where spot prices exceeded futures prices: - Canola oil: Spot price 9956.67 CNY, futures price 9924 CNY, basis 32 CNY - Canola meal: Spot price 2646.67 CNY, futures price 2638 CNY, basis 8 CNY - Soybean one: Spot price 4300 CNY, futures price 4071 CNY, basis 229 CNY - Soybean oil: Spot price 8598 CNY, futures price 8550 CNY, basis 48 CNY [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: With both supply and demand booming in the producing areas, a low - buying strategy is recommended [2]. - Soybean oil: Bullish factors have been fully priced in, and there may be a correction at high levels [2]. - Soybean meal: US soybeans have risen and then fallen, and the Dalian soybean meal futures will adjust and fluctuate [2]. - Soybean No.1: The futures price will fluctuate [2]. - Corn: It will move in a fluctuating manner [2]. - Sugar: It will consolidate within a range [2]. - Eggs: The price will adjust in a fluctuating way [2]. - Live pigs: Second - fattening has entered the market, but the spot performance is below expectations [2]. - Peanuts: The near - term contracts are stronger than the far - term ones [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daytime closing price was 9,294 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.38%, and the night - session closing price was 9,386 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.99%. Soybean oil's daytime closing price was 8,540 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 8,512 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.33% [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: India's palm oil imports in July were 855,695 tons, down from 955,683 tons in June. The total vegetable oil imports in July were 1,579,041 tons, up from 1,549,825 tons in June. ICE Canadian canola futures closed down 0.8%, and CBOT soybean futures fell 1.5% due to profit - taking and export concerns. CONAB and ABIOVE both raised their forecasts for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production and exports [6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0 [9]. 2. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean No.1 2511's daytime closing price was 4,041 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.13%, and the night - session closing price was 4,049 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.54%. DCE soybean meal 2601's daytime closing price was 3,157 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.38%, and the night - session closing price was 3,140 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.76% [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 14, CBOT soybean futures fell from a six - week high due to profit - taking and export concerns. The US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed a significant reduction in 2024/25 US soybean net sales [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No.1 is 0 [12]. 3. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2509 was 2,281 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase during the day and 2,279 yuan/ton with a 0.09% decline at night. The closing price of C2511 was 2,202 yuan/ton with a 0.05% decline during the day and 2,197 yuan/ton with a 0.23% decline at night [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port collection prices were stable, while prices in Northeast and North China were weak. Imported sorghum and barley had different price quotes for different shipment periods [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [15]. 4. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 16.58 cents/pound with a 0.27 - cent decline. The mainstream spot price was 5,990 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase. The futures主力 price was 5,659 yuan/ton with a 2 - yuan increase [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon rainfall has weakened. China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June. CAOC made production, consumption, and import forecasts for the 24/25 and 25/26 domestic sugar seasons. ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 547 million tons in the 24/25 season [16][17][18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is 0 [19]. 5. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,191 yuan/500 kilograms with a 3.01% decline, and the closing price of egg 2601 was 3,578 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.11% decline [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [20]. 6. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13,930 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 13,550 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 15,190 yuan/ton. The prices of futures contracts such as live pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 all showed year - on - year declines [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of live pigs is - 1 [24]. - **Market Logic**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increased, while散户 were forced to hold back pigs. Demand growth was limited, and market pressure was high. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, and the industrial willingness to deliver is increasing. There is a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure maintains an inverse spread [25]. 7. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of important spot peanuts such as Liaoning 308 common peanuts remained unchanged. The closing price of PK510 was 8,058 yuan/ton with a 1.03% decline, and the closing price of PK511 was 7,884 yuan/ton with a 1.40% decline [27]. - **Spot Market Focus**: New peanuts have been gradually coming onto the market in small quantities in some areas, with uneven quality and small supply. Most areas' prices are stable or slightly weak [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [31].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum will focus on key industry issues, providing a platform for experts to discuss solutions and explore new development paths for stable operations in the face of market changes [1] Group 1: Forum Overview - The forum will feature two sub-forums: one on agricultural products (oilseeds) and another on industrial products (polyester), addressing themes related to trade changes and international competitiveness [1] - Experts from various associations and companies will present on topics such as global supply and demand analysis, market risks, and the role of futures markets in enhancing industry resilience [2] Group 2: Agricultural Products Forum Insights - The agricultural forum will cover critical topics including global vegetable oil supply and demand, the biodiesel market, and the domestic peanut market's risks and responses [2][3] - The futures market is seen as a tool for precise pricing and risk management, helping companies navigate challenges posed by geopolitical factors and supply chain disruptions [3] Group 3: Industrial Products Forum Insights - The industrial forum will discuss the evolution of the global aromatics supply chain and the outlook for polyester supply and demand [2] - The use of futures and derivative tools is emphasized for managing production costs and enhancing competitiveness in global trade [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Palm Oil**: Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to continue to rise in the short - term, potentially approaching 4500 ringgit, with a chance of briefly breaking through and reaching 4580 - 4600 ringgit. However, due to potential production growth and export slowdown in the second half of the month, there is a risk of a pull - back. The overall view is near - term strength and long - term weakness. Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures have the potential to continue rising after breaking through 9500 yuan, possibly reaching 10,000 yuan. It is crucial to monitor whether they can effectively stay above 9500 yuan [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: China's decision to impose a 75.8% anti - dumping tariff on Canadian rapeseed from August 15 will increase the demand for other oilseeds and vegetable oils. The USDA monthly report has lowered the forecast for US soybean production and ending stocks, which will boost the prices of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil in the short term, and also support the price of Dalian soybean oil. The continuation of Sino - US tariffs until early November makes the fourth - quarter soybean import volume uncertain. The main January contract may face resistance at 8700 yuan, and if it fails to break through, a technical correction may occur [4]. - **Oilseeds (Bean and Rapeseed Meal)**: The US Department of Agriculture's report unexpectedly lowered the US soybean planting area, reducing the new - season production forecast and benefiting South American soybean exports. The preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has led to a limit - up in rapeseed meal futures, also boosting the price of soybean meal futures. Short - term attention should be paid to whether the main contract of Dalian soybean meal can reach the resistance range of 3180 - 3200 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Spreads - **Inter - monthly and Inter - variety Spreads of Oils**: The report provides price spreads and their daily changes for various oil contracts, such as P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc. For example, P 1 - 5 is 318 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 66 yuan, and Y - P 01 is - 920 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 122 yuan [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices - **Palm Oil Futures and Spot Prices**: Palm oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) have increased, with the 01 contract at 9490 yuan/ton (up 1%), the 05 contract at 9170 yuan/ton (up 1.01%), and the 09 contract at 9424 yuan/ton (up 0.66%). The BMD palm oil main contract is at 4459 ringgit/ton (up 1.29%). The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 9470 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 42 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices - **Soybean Oil Futures and Spot Prices**: Soybean oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) have also increased, with the 01 contract at 8576 yuan/ton (up 2.33%), the 05 contract at 8118 yuan/ton (up 1.89%), and the 09 contract at 8592 yuan/ton (up 2.24%). The CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 53.07 cents/pound (up 0.11%). The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Shandong is 8640 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 6 yuan/ton [13]. 3.4 Oilseed Futures Prices - **Bean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Prices**: Futures prices of bean and rapeseed meal have generally increased. For example, the bean meal 01 contract is at 3163 yuan/ton (up 2.33%), and the rapeseed meal 01 contract is at 2688 yuan/ton (up 4.92%). The price of CBOT yellow soybeans remains unchanged at 1032.25, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1852 (down 0.12%) [16]. 3.5 Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - **Bean and Rapeseed Meal Price Spreads**: The report provides price spreads and their daily changes for different contracts of bean and rapeseed meal, such as M01 - 05, RM01 - 05, etc. For example, M01 - 05 is 294 yuan with a daily increase of 4 yuan, and RM01 - 05 is 100 yuan with a daily increase of 52 yuan [17].

Report Information - Report Title: Oilseeds and Oils Industry Daily Report - Report Date: August 11, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views Fats and Oils - **Palm Oil**: Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating around 4,250 ringgit, awaiting the MPOB report on Monday and August export data. If it effectively holds above 4,250 ringgit and export data is positive, there's an upward trend; otherwise, it may decline to around 4,000 ringgit in the long - term. Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are oscillating between 8,900 - 9,000 yuan, waiting for Malaysian palm oil trends. If it gets support, it may stabilize; otherwise, it could fall to 8,500 - 8,600 yuan. If Malaysian palm oil holds above 4,250 ringgit and export data is positive, Dalian palm oil may rise [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: Last weekend, the total domestic factory soybean oil inventory increased by 13,000 tons. According to historical data, inventory is nearing its peak and will soon decrease due to increased demand. Spot basis quotes will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term and are expected to rise in the long - term [4]. Oilseeds - **Soybean Meal**: Spot prices from oil mills are mostly stable, while traders' quotes fluctuated. Domestic soybean meal inventory has been declining, reaching 1.04 million tons in Week 32, a decrease of 31,000 tons from the previous week, a 2.87% drop. In the short - term, near - month contracts are restricted by supply pressure, with prices ranging from 2,900 - 3,150 yuan/ton [16]. Data Summaries Fats and Oils - **Inter - month and Inter - variety Spreads**: Various spreads such as P 1 - 5, Y - P 01 are provided, with price changes detailed in the table [5]. - **Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices**: Palm oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) have different price levels and percentage changes. BMD palm oil and Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil prices are also given, along with relevant basis and spreads [7]. - **Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices**: Soybean oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) and CBOT soybean oil prices are provided, along with Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot price and basis [13]. Oilseeds - **Oilseed Futures Prices**: Futures prices of soybean meal (01, 05, 09), rapeseed meal (01, 05, 09), CBOT soybeans, and the offshore RMB exchange rate are presented, along with their price changes and percentage changes [17]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: Inter - month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, are given [18][20].