Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the HNB industry, indicating a positive outlook based on favorable market conditions and consumer preferences [1][45]. Core Insights - The Japanese HNB market is one of the largest globally, reaching a scale of 10 billion USD in 2023, driven by stable policies and changing consumer habits [6][9]. - The market exhibits an oligopolistic structure dominated by key players such as PMI, JT, and BAT, with a CR2 exceeding 70% [30][29]. - Continuous product iteration among major manufacturers is expected to sustain growth, with new product launches anticipated to create additional market opportunities [38][34]. Summary by Sections Japanese HNB Market Overview - The Japanese HNB market is the largest globally, with a market size of 10 billion USD in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of over 10% from 2020 to 2023 [9][6]. - A stable policy environment supports HNB product growth, with favorable regulations and lower tax rates compared to traditional cigarettes [13][14]. - HNB penetration rates have surpassed 40% overall and 50% in major cities by 2024, indicating significant growth potential [22][27]. Market Structure - The Japanese HNB market is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, with PMI holding over 60% market share, followed by JT and BAT [30][34]. - Each major player has core products that drive growth through continuous innovation, with differences in heating technology and user experience [34][38]. - A new product iteration cycle is expected in 2025, with BAT's Glo Hilo set to launch, potentially enhancing market penetration and competitive positioning [38][39]. Consumer Preferences and Trends - Japanese consumers show a strong preference for innovative and healthier smoking alternatives, which aligns with the characteristics of HNB products [17][19]. - The demand for low-tar and low-nicotine products is increasing, and HNB products are gaining acceptance in various social settings [17][18]. - The trend towards stylish and technologically advanced products is driving the growth of HNB consumption among urban consumers [19][20].

Core Insights - The 2025 China Cigar (Sichuan) Expo showcased the growth potential of the Chinese cigar industry, emphasizing international cooperation and cultural exchange [1][2][4] Industry Development - The expo attracted participants from countries like Cuba and the Dominican Republic, with over 100 exhibitors from the cigar accessory sector, highlighting the global interest in the Chinese cigar market [2][8] - Key discussions at the expo included the development of the cigar industry, market expansion, and quality improvement of cigar leaves, indicating a focus on enhancing the entire supply chain [2][3] Market Performance - In 2023, China's cigar sales volume ranked second globally, with a year-on-year sales growth of 12.55%, reflecting a robust market performance [5][6] - The Longcheng brand, as a leading Chinese cigar brand, holds the largest market share and production capacity in the country, indicating its dominance in the domestic market [6][9] Cultural Integration - The expo featured immersive experiences that combined cigar tasting with cultural activities, promoting a deeper understanding of the cigar lifestyle among enthusiasts [2][3] - Sichuan Tobacco has been actively promoting cigar culture through various initiatives, including the establishment of a cigar culture museum and national touring exhibitions [8][9] International Strategy - Sichuan Tobacco is enhancing its international presence by participating in global cigar exhibitions and collaborating with renowned international brands, which strengthens its competitive edge [6][7] - The company aims to position Chinese cigars as a significant player in the global market, aspiring to create a "third pole" for cigars worldwide [7][8]

Group 1: Evolution of Consumption Society in Japan and the U.S. - The generational shift has profoundly influenced the evolution of consumption societies in Japan and the U.S. [1] - In Japan, the Taisho and early Showa generations led the transition from the first to the second consumption society, followed by the New Human Generation and part of the Baby Boomer generation driving the third consumption society [1] - In the U.S., Baby Boomers focus on unique product advantages, Generation X prefers time-saving products, Generation Y is enthusiastic about energy-saving and green consumption, while Generation Z contributes significantly to digital and gaming consumption [1] Group 2: Current State and Potential of China's Consumption Society - The post-90s and post-95s generations in China have developed consumption concepts similar to Japan's New Human Generation and the U.S. Baby Boomers, emphasizing spiritual satisfaction and personalized consumption [2] - Compared to Japan and the U.S., China's service consumption currently stands at 46.1%, indicating significant room for growth in the service sector [2] Group 3: Characteristics of the Third Consumption Society and Self-Satisfaction Consumption Trends - In the third consumption society, consumers prioritize emotional and psychological factors over mere functionality when selecting products, leading to a shift in brand positioning from "leader" to "supporting role" [3][10] - Self-satisfaction consumption is emerging as a key trend, focusing on emotional resources, emotional resolution solutions, and legal emotional release [6][11] Group 4: Emotional Consumption Trends - Emotional resources include the pet economy, IP toys, and temple economy, catering to spiritual and emotional needs [6] - Emotional resolution solutions are found in beauty and personal care products, gold and jewelry, and new-style food and beverages that address appearance and safety anxieties [6] - Legal emotional release is represented by outdoor activities, light alcoholic beverages, and tobacco products, which help consumers manage stress [6]

Group 1 - The financing conference in Xuchang showcased 223 key project financing needs totaling 101.96 billion yuan, highlighting the city's industrial development potential and investment value [1] - Xuchang has developed ten industrial clusters and sixteen industrial chains, forming a new industrial system led by future industries, supported by emerging industries, and based on traditional industries [3] - The city has become a significant production base for electric power equipment, automotive parts, tobacco, elevators, and artificial diamonds, among others, positioning itself as a key player in various sectors [3] Group 2 - Xuchang plans to implement 398 provincial and municipal key projects by 2025, with a total investment of 346.17 billion yuan and an annual planned investment of 136.31 billion yuan [4] - As of the end of April, 168 new projects have commenced construction, accounting for 64.4% of the annual target of 261 new projects [4]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [9] Core Insights - The new tobacco market continues to grow, with heated tobacco products leading in market size and nicotine pouches experiencing the fastest growth [2][3] - The global tobacco market is undergoing significant changes, with Japan's tobacco business expanding rapidly [4] - The global supply of tobacco leaves is facing shortages, leading to widespread price increases across the industry [14] Summary by Sections Electronic Cigarettes - In 2024, global e-cigarette sales are projected to reach $23.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [3] - Sales of disposable e-cigarettes grew by 18.9% to 840 million units, generating $6.42 billion in revenue, up 19.6% [3] - Open system e-cigarettes saw sales of 85.16 million devices and 12.23 million liters of e-liquid, with revenues of $2.62 billion and $5.49 billion respectively [3] Traditional Tobacco Products - Traditional oral tobacco products, including chewing and snuff tobacco, are experiencing a decline, with 2024 sales expected to drop by 0.8% to 115,000 tons [3] - Revenue from traditional oral tobacco is projected to decrease by 0.1% to $13.82 billion [3] Nicotine Pouches - Nicotine pouch sales are expected to grow by 36.9% to 21.23 billion pouches in 2024, with revenue reaching $11.25 billion, a 51.0% increase [3] - The United States leads in nicotine pouch sales with 13.88 billion pouches sold [3] Heated Tobacco Products - Sales of heated tobacco products are projected to grow by 12.7% to $38.85 billion in 2024 [3] - The volume of heated tobacco devices sold is expected to increase by 11.7% to 45.26 million units, with revenue rising by 14.7% to $2.44 billion [3] Company Performance - Philip Morris International reported a net income of $14.66 billion from its smoke-free products, a 14.2% increase, accounting for 38.7% of total revenue [5] - British American Tobacco's Vuse e-cigarette sales declined by 5.9% to 616 million units, impacted by illegal disposable e-cigarettes in the U.S. [6] - Japan Tobacco's Ploom brand heated tobacco sales grew by 24.2% to 218,000 boxes, primarily driven by the Ploom X model [7] Market Dynamics - The global tobacco market is experiencing intense competition, with multinational companies showing divergent growth patterns [4] - The supply chain for tobacco is under pressure due to climate-related shortages and rising prices [14]

Core Insights - The Chinese cigar industry, particularly Sichuan Zhongyan, is emerging as a significant player in the global cigar market, showcasing unique qualities and innovation in Chinese cigars [1][2]. Industry Development - The development of the Chinese cigar industry dates back to 1918 with the establishment of "Yichuan Industrial Society" in Sichuan, which laid the foundation for industrial development [2]. - Sichuan is recognized as the "Cigar Capital of China," benefiting from its location in the "tobacco golden growth belt" at latitude 30°N, similar to renowned cigar-producing regions like Cuba [2]. - In 2023, China's cigar sales ranked second globally, indicating a potential shift in the global cigar market landscape [2]. Quality and Innovation - Sichuan Zhongyan is actively involved in setting industry standards and conducting key technology research in cigar fermentation, maintaining a leading position in domestic innovation [3]. - The company has established a cigar technology innovation center to address major industry needs and enhance the quality of Chinese cigars [3]. - Longcheng cigars are produced with a meticulous process involving over 230 steps, ensuring high quality and unique characteristics [4]. Craftsmanship and Branding - The "Haoyue Changchun" team represents the pinnacle of Chinese handmade cigar craftsmanship, integrating traditional techniques with modern digital technology [5]. - Longcheng cigars emphasize the importance of cultural heritage and craftsmanship, aiming to establish a strong brand identity in the global market [6][7]. - The brand's strategy includes creating a Chinese cigar museum and participating in international events to promote Chinese cigar culture [7]. Market Positioning - Longcheng cigars aim to redefine their brand identity from "Chinese flavor, World Great Wall" to "World flavor, Chinese Great Wall," reflecting their ambition to become a top-tier global cigar brand [7]. - The company is committed to blending traditional Chinese elements with international standards to enhance its competitive edge in the market [7]. Events and Promotion - The 2025 China Cigar (Sichuan) Expo will take place in Chengdu, with Longcheng cigars serving as ambassadors of Chinese culture, showcasing the unique charm of Chinese cigars to the world [8].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that increasing tobacco product tax rates is the most effective method to curb tobacco and cigarette consumption, with Nepal having the lowest comprehensive tax rates in South Asia [1] - The Deputy Secretary of the Ministry of Health and Population, Gopikrishna Regmi, noted that despite high inflation, tobacco and cigarette prices have not increased due to low taxes, making it easy for smokers to purchase cigarettes [1] - The article references a study from the Nepal National Cancer Research Center indicating that a 10% increase in tobacco product prices would lead to a 5% decrease in consumption [1] Group 2 - The spokesperson for the Ministry of Finance stated that although tobacco and cigarette tax rates are low, they have increased by 300% over the past decade, with at least a 10% increase each year [1] - The Chairman of Action Nepal highlighted that Nepal has the lowest tobacco tax rates in South Asia, suggesting that both the health hazard tax and the consumption tax should be raised to around 32% [1] - The article cites a 2023 report from the Health Rights and Tobacco Control Network Nepal, showing that South Asian countries have significantly higher tobacco product tax rates, with Sri Lanka at 77%, Bangladesh at 73%, Pakistan at 61%, and India at 58% [2]

在快消品竞争日益激烈的当下，武汉烟草硚口营销部始终心系卷烟零售户，致力于提升他们的经营能 力。客户经理充分发挥主观能动性，多维度发力，通过"让市场说话""让数据说话""以指导说话"三项务 实举措，为零售户经营发展注入强劲动力。 让市场说话，洞察先机强信心 客户经理小吴深知市场信息对于零售户经营的重要性。他经常穿梭于大街小巷，密切关注着市场动态。 有一次，小吴在走访客户王老板的店铺时，发现周边新开设了一家大型商业街，人流量明显增加。他意 识到，这可能会对王老板的生意产生影响，立刻展开了细致的市场调研。 调查后，小吴一边观察王老板店铺的动销情况，一边与王老板交流："王老板，最近周边变化可不小 啊，您有没有注意到商业街那边的人流量对咱们店的影响？"王老板皱着眉头说："唉，小吴啊，我也发 现了，感觉最近店里的生意有点受影响呢，这可咋办啊？"小吴安慰道："别着急，王老板。我这几天做 了些调研，发现虽然商业街带来了竞争，但也带来了新的消费群体。咱们只要把握好他们的消费偏好， 调整一下商品结构，生意肯定能好起来。" 随后，小吴将收集到的市场价格波动、消费偏好变化等信息及时反馈给王老板，并详细讲解了当前经营 形势。王老板听后 ...

Group 1 - The global tobacco market is projected to reach $951.4 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6% [1] - Cigarettes and cigars are expected to account for $775.6 billion, while new tobacco products will reach $87 billion, showing significant growth in the latter category at 13.1% [1] - The new tobacco sector, including e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products, is anticipated to grow, with e-cigarettes projected at $23 billion and heated tobacco at $38.9 billion, reflecting growth rates of 9% and 13% respectively [1] Group 2 - Smoore International (06969) is positioned as a leading manufacturer of vaporized electronic products, with positive feedback on its Glo Hilo product linked to British American Tobacco [2] - The HNB business of Smoore International is expected to show strong growth and profitability potential by 2026 as market penetration increases [2] - China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055) is advancing its exclusive cigarette export business through a framework agreement with Mongkun Company, which is expected to enhance revenue and profitability [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the tobacco industry [1] Core Insights - The global tobacco market is projected to reach $951.4 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%. The market segments include combustible tobacco at $775.6 billion, new tobacco products at $870 billion, and others [11][19] - New tobacco products, particularly heated tobacco and electronic cigarettes, are experiencing significant growth, with heated tobacco expected to grow by 13.1% year-on-year [11][19] - Major players like Philip Morris International and British American Tobacco are increasing their focus on smoke-free products, indicating a shift in industry dynamics towards reduced harm alternatives [1][66] Summary by Sections Global Tobacco Market - The global tobacco market is expected to grow to $951.4 billion in 2024, with combustible tobacco at $775.6 billion and new tobacco products at $870 billion, reflecting growth rates of 1.6%, 1.9%, and 13.1% respectively [11][19] - The market is dominated by Asia-Pacific, Western Europe, and North America, with China, the USA, and Indonesia being the top three consumers [14][19] Philip Morris International - Philip Morris International's revenue is projected to be $378.78 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year organic growth of 9.8%. The revenue split is 61% from combustible products and 38% from smoke-free products [46][49] - The IQOS brand continues to grow, with user numbers reaching 32.2 million in 2024, a 12% increase year-on-year [55][59] - The company is actively expanding its smoke-free product offerings, aiming for smoke-free products to account for over two-thirds of its revenue by 2030 [65] British American Tobacco - British American Tobacco's revenue is expected to be £25.867 billion in 2024, with a slight organic growth of 1.3%. The revenue breakdown shows a decline in combustible tobacco but growth in new tobacco products [66][69] - The company is diversifying its product range, focusing on electronic cigarettes and heated tobacco, with new product launches expected to drive future growth [66][69] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Smoore International, which is linked to British American Tobacco's new HNB product, and the OEM for Philip Morris International's IQOS, Yingqu Technology [1]