Report Title - **中小盘收正，板块分化明显，TMT板块基金今年收益反超医药板块——基金市场跟踪2025.09.19** [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the TMT sector funds' year-to-date returns successfully exceeded those of the pharmaceutical sector, becoming the top performer. The pharmaceutical sector's general weakness led to a 2.3% pullback in its funds this week, while the technology and media sectors drove the TMT sector funds up by 2.2% [6][32]. - In terms of style labels, small and medium market capitalization and medium to high valuation have obvious advantages [6][32]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Fluctuations 1.1 Performance of Major Asset Classes - The A-share market fluctuated slightly. The CSI 300, representing the large-cap market, had a 0.4% pullback, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 rose slightly. There was obvious differentiation in style, with the financial sector having a relatively high pullback and the growth sector recording a 1.5% positive return, a gap of nearly 5% [6][10]. - In the bond market, government bonds and corporate bonds fluctuated slightly, and convertible bonds fell 1.5% driven by the stock market [10]. - The Hong Kong and US stock markets rose to varying degrees [10]. - Among representative commodities, agricultural products had a pullback [10]. 1.2 Performance of Industry Themes - This week, each sector in the market showed differentiation. The pharmaceutical sector weakened overall, with all sub - industries having a pullback of over 1.5%. Most of the technology sector closed positive, but cloud computing had a 3.1% pullback. The media sector had a relatively high increase, with the positive return of the animation and game sub - sector exceeding 5%. The mid - stream manufacturing sector was also clearly differentiated, with smart cars rising 4.7% and rare earths falling 4.3%, a gap of 9% [6][12]. 1.3 Performance of Concept Indexes - The top five concepts with the highest gains this week were lithography machines, optical modules (CPO), semiconductor equipment, cameras, and selected auto parts, with the lithography machine concept rising 9%. The top five concepts with the highest losses were rare earths, gold and jewelry, operating systems, selected insurance, and small metals, with rare earths falling 7.4% [17]. 1.4 Trading Heat Tracking - The top five concepts with the highest trading heat this week were state - owned enterprise comprehensive, fund heavy - holding, core assets, 5G applications, and technology leaders. The average daily trading volume of the state - owned enterprise comprehensive concept reached 56.13 billion shares [21]. - Compared with last week, the top five concepts with rising heat were selected coal mining, selected air transportation, urban village renovation, recent IPO stocks, and cross - border e - commerce; the top five concepts with falling heat were digital twin, spatio - temporal big data, gold and jewelry, selected shipping, and fluorine chemical industry [22][23]. 2. Active Equity Fund Tracking 2.1 Classification Returns and Rising Ratios - The median return of international (QDII) stock - type funds in the past week was the highest at 1.4%, and the lowest was enhanced index - type bonds at - 0.3%. The median return of partial - stock hybrid funds in the past month was the highest at 7.0%, and the lowest was hybrid bond - type level 1 at - 0.0% [29]. - The proportion of rising funds in the past month was the highest for enhanced index - type bonds at 100.0%, and the lowest was hybrid bond - type level 1 at 37.7%. The minimum maximum drawdown in the past month was for short - term pure - bond funds at - 0.0%, and the highest was for ordinary stock - type funds at - 5.0% [29]. 2.2 Sub - label Return Situations - In terms of sectors, the TMT sector funds had a 2.2% return in the past week, 15.0% in the past month, and 47.9% year - to - date; the mid - stream manufacturing sector had 2.2%, 9.3%, and 31.8% respectively; the pharmaceutical sector had - 2.3%, - 2.1%, and 43.8% respectively [31]. - In terms of style labels, small - cap and medium - to - high - valuation funds showed obvious advantages [32]. 2.3 Fund Differentiation within Sectors - At the sector level, the consumer sector had the lowest differentiation degree in the past week, with a return range of 6.0%, and the highest was the TMT sector, with a return range of 18.8%. In the past month, the consumer sector also had the lowest differentiation degree, with a return range of 15.1%, and the highest was the TMT sector, with a return range of 44.0% [34]. 2.4 Fund Differentiation within Styles - At the style level, the low - profit - quality funds had the lowest differentiation degree in the past week, with a return range of 13.9%, and the highest were low - cap and high - valuation funds, with a return range of 22.8%. In the past month, the low - valuation funds had the lowest differentiation degree, with a return range of 40.7%, and the highest were high - valuation, high - growth, and high - quality funds, with a return range of 50.1% [38]. 2.5 Top - performing Funds in Each Sector - The report lists the top five funds in each sector in terms of one - month returns [43][44]. 2.6 Top - performing Funds in Each Style - The report lists the top five funds in each style in terms of one - month returns [46]. 3. Private Equity Market Performance 3.1 Overall Performance of the Private Equity Market - The private equity type with the highest return this year is the event - driven type, with a return rate of 39.3% [4][50]. 3.2 Returns of Various Private Equity Types - For stock - strategy private equity, the top - performing products are mostly stock subjective long - only, and most of their year - to - date returns are in the 0% - 20% range [53]. - For bond - strategy private equity, the top - performing products are all bond composites, and most of their year - to - date returns are in the 0% - 5% range [57]. - For portfolio fund - strategy private equity, the top - performing products are all FOFs, and most of their year - to - date returns are above 10% [61]. - For money - market - strategy private equity, the top - performing products are all trust products, and most of their year - to - date returns are in the 0% - 2% range [64]. - For managed - futures private equity, the top - performing products mostly use program trading strategies, and their year - to - date returns are widely distributed, with products in both the <-10% and >10% ranges [67]. - For relative - value - strategy private equity, the top - performing products are all stock - market neutral, and most of their year - to - date returns are in the 10% - 20% range [70]. - For macro - strategy private equity, only 8 products announced their net values this week, and most of their year - to - date returns are above 20% [73]. - For composite - strategy private equity, the top - performing products are mostly trust products, and most of their year - to - date returns are in the 0% - 10% and >30% ranges [77]. - For other - strategy private equity, the top - performing products are mostly under foreign - trade trusts, and most of their year - to - date returns are in the 0% - 10% range [80].

Core Insights - China has sold over $25.7 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds within a month, reducing its holdings to the lowest level since 2009, while simultaneously increasing its gold reserves for the tenth consecutive month, now totaling 74.02 million ounces [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bond Reduction - The reduction in U.S. Treasury bonds is a strategic move by China, reflecting a long-term approach to diversify foreign exchange reserves in response to the increasing debt levels in the U.S., which has surpassed $36 trillion, with a GDP ratio of 123% [1]. - The anticipated federal interest expenditure is projected to reach $928 billion by 2025, raising concerns about the credit risk associated with U.S. debt, as highlighted by Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating [1]. Group 2: Gold Reserve Increase - The continuous increase in gold reserves by the People's Bank of China signifies a preference for non-sovereign credit reserve assets, which can effectively hedge against single currency risks [2]. - China's gold reserves currently account for only 7.64% of its total reserves, significantly lower than the global average of around 15%, and much less than the U.S. (72.8%) and Germany (70%) [2]. Group 3: Impact on A-Share Market - The overall impact of these operations on the A-share market is expected to be positive, enhancing international confidence in the renminbi and potentially increasing market valuations [3]. - The repatriation of funds from the sale of U.S. bonds may lead to increased liquidity in the domestic market, positively influencing market expectations [3]. Group 4: Sector Opportunities and Risks - Gold-related stocks are likely to benefit directly from the central bank's ongoing gold purchases, indicating a long-term bullish outlook on gold [4]. - Other resource-related stocks may also see positive effects, as the preference for physical assets could extend to other resource classes [4]. - Companies heavily reliant on foreign exchange, particularly those with significant exports to the U.S., may face risks from currency fluctuations as the renminbi's exchange rate becomes more market-driven [4]. Group 5: Investor Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on gold and precious metals sectors, as well as resource stocks, including non-ferrous metals and rare earths, due to the central bank's ongoing gold accumulation [5]. - There is also an opportunity for revaluation of renminbi-denominated assets as the internationalization of the renminbi progresses, potentially leading to premium pricing [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights China's significant reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings, amounting to a decrease of $25.7 billion in a single month, bringing the total to $730.7 billion, the lowest since December 2018, and a cumulative reduction of approximately $500 billion compared to previous years [1][3] - The ongoing reduction reflects China's strategic adjustment of foreign exchange reserves and a cautious assessment of the long-term repayment capacity of the U.S. [1][3] - Moody's recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating has intensified concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies, with the national debt exceeding $34 trillion and interest payments on debt rising as a percentage of GDP [3] Group 2 - The strategic adjustment of China's foreign exchange reserves since 2018 includes increasing gold holdings and other safe-haven assets, aiming to create a more resilient reserve portfolio [3] - The proposal by U.S. House Committee Chairman Mulvaney to link civil aviation operations with resource trade, particularly regarding rare earth supplies, has sparked significant controversy and reflects extreme thinking among some U.S. politicians [5][7] - China's dominance in the rare earth market, controlling about 60% of global production and over 90% of refining capacity, positions it as a critical player in U.S.-China relations [5][7] Group 3 - The potential U.S. sanctions on Chinese airlines could severely impact U.S. airline revenues, estimated to be in the billions, and disrupt the global aviation system, indicating a short-sighted strategy by some U.S. politicians [7] - The interconnectedness of global supply chains suggests that unilateral coercion may not be effective and could lead to unintended consequences, emphasizing the need for constructive dialogue and cooperation [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, bringing the rate to 4.00% - 4.25%, with indications of potentially two more cuts within the year [1][3] - Following the announcement, gold prices surged to a historical high of $3744 per ounce before experiencing a rapid decline to $3692 per ounce [1][12] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed reactions, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.57%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.10% and 0.33% respectively [4] Group 2 - A-shares experienced a dramatic shift, initially rising but ultimately closing lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.15% and the Shenzhen Component down by 1.06% [6] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index also fell by 1.35%, closing at 26544.85 points [6] - The Nikkei Index, however, performed well, closing at 45303.43 points, up by 1.15% [7] Group 3 - The Chinese yuan showed stability with a slight appreciation, with the central parity rate against the U.S. dollar reported at 7.1085, down by 72 basis points from the previous day [9][10] - The yuan's exchange rate has been volatile this year, initially above 7.3, stabilizing after April, and experiencing a notable appreciation in late August [10] - Experts suggest that for the yuan to break below the 7 mark, more favorable conditions are needed [10] Group 4 - The volatility in gold prices has led to differing market opinions, with some believing that the rate cut signals a peak in gold prices, while others anticipate a new upward trend following a brief correction [12][15] - Deutsche Bank has revised its gold price forecast for 2026 from $3700 to $4000 per ounce, indicating long-term bullish sentiment [13] - Factors supporting gold prices include a cooling U.S. economy, declining interest rates, and increased gold purchases by central banks [15] Group 5 - The A-share market's total trading volume reached 3.13 trillion yuan, indicating significant activity despite the afternoon decline [15] - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics involve a struggle between profit-taking investors and those optimistic about a bull market [17] - Structural opportunities exist in sectors such as photovoltaics, batteries, gold, rare earths, innovative pharmaceuticals, artificial intelligence, brokerages, and robotics [17]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union is facing a crisis due to China's strict export controls on rare earth elements, which are essential for various industries, including defense and renewable energy. The EU's reliance on China for these materials has led to significant operational risks for European manufacturers [1][4]. Group 1: Export Control and Approval Rates - The approval rate for rare earth export licenses in China is around 20%, with less than a quarter of approximately 140 applications being approved, indicating stringent controls [3]. - The export control measures were not sudden; they were announced in April 2025, coinciding with the U.S. imposing tariffs on China, showcasing a strategic response from China [3]. Group 2: Strategic Importance of Rare Earths - The seven categories of rare earths under control are critical for manufacturing high-temperature magnets, which are widely used in military applications, electric vehicles, and electronics [4]. - The EU is entirely dependent on imports for these resources, and any tightening of supply from China could severely impact its industrial framework [4]. Group 3: China's Dominance in Rare Earths - China holds 40% of the world's rare earth reserves, produces over 70% of the total output, and possesses 90% of the processing capacity, giving it significant leverage in the market [5]. - Other countries may have rare earth deposits but rely on China's refining technology, which is complex and costly to replicate [6]. Group 4: EU's Strategic Missteps - The EU's dual approach of aligning with U.S. pressure while expecting stable rare earth supplies from China is seen as contradictory and self-defeating [3][6]. - The EU's attempts to sanction Chinese and Indian companies for aiding Russian oil trade, while simultaneously complaining about rare earth shortages, reflect a lack of coherent strategy [6]. Group 5: Recommendations for the EU - The EU is advised to reconsider its approach towards China, as historical lessons indicate that the U.S. has not shown leniency towards the EU, and China has maintained a willingness for dialogue [14]. - The potential for the Chinese market is vast, and the EU risks missing out on development opportunities if it continues to act as a pawn for U.S. interests [14].

Group 1 - The EU is facing a production crisis due to a shortage of rare earth materials, with European companies halting production seven times in August and an expected increase to 46 times in September [1] - The EU's previous alignment with the US in sanctioning Chinese companies has backfired, as the US is now less stringent on China, leaving the EU in a vulnerable position [3][6] - The EU has committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of US energy over the next three years, which may harm its own economic interests while trying to comply with US demands [6] Group 2 - The US is strategically shifting its focus to the EU after facing setbacks with China and Russia, viewing the EU as an opportunity for economic gain [6][7] - There is a significant dependency of the US on EU imports for nearly 180 categories of strategic goods, indicating that the EU has potential leverage against the US [7] - The EU's ability to counteract US pressure hinges on internal consensus and reducing the influence of pro-US factions within its leadership [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests focusing on industries with real profit realization or strong industrial trends, particularly in resources, innovative pharmaceuticals, gaming, and military industries [1] Group 1: Investment Focus - The company emphasizes the importance of industries that have sustainable pricing power, driven by both supply and demand growth in China [1] - Short-term profit realization is highlighted in sectors such as rare earths, cobalt, tungsten, phosphorus chemicals, pesticides, fluorochemicals, and photovoltaic inverters [1] Group 2: Consumer Electronics - September is noted for a series of consumer electronics product launches, indicating a focus on the consumer electronics sector [1] - The report suggests paying special attention to the revaluation opportunities within the Apple supply chain [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the announcement of leadership changes within China Rare Earth Group, specifically the appointment of Li Zhihui as the Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee and Director, with a nomination for the position of General Manager [1] Group 2 - The announcement was made during a cadre meeting held by China Rare Earth Group [1] - The decision was announced by officials from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) of the State Council [1] - The appointments and removals of positions will be handled according to relevant laws and regulations [1]

Core Insights - China's rare earth industry holds a dominant position globally, accounting for 69% of smelting and separation capacity and over 90% of processing capacity, indicating a strong market presence and potential for continued growth [1][2][4] Group 1: Industry Overview - The rare earth industry in China is experiencing a high prosperity cycle driven by strong commodity prices and improved corporate performance, with expectations for profit growth and valuation expansion [1][13] - China's rare earth reserves are substantial, with approximately 44 million tons, representing 40%-50% of global proven reserves, while other countries also possess significant resources [1][2] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - China's competitive edge lies in its advanced smelting and separation processes, integrated systems, and mature industrial clusters, supported by low electricity costs and effective resource utilization [6] - The country has a significant influence on global rare earth supply, with 2024 production projected at 270,000 tons, maintaining a 69% share of global output [4][6] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The introduction of the "Interim Measures for the Total Control of Rare Earth Mining and Smelting Separation" in August 2025 aims to enhance control over domestic and imported rare earth resources, promoting consolidation among leading companies [1][9] - The tightening of production quotas and stricter total control measures are expected to support the healthy development of the industry by reducing supply and stabilizing prices [9][10] Group 4: Innovation and Future Outlook - The period from 2025 to 2030 is anticipated to be characterized by technological leadership and ecological symbiosis in the rare earth sector, with a significant increase in the domestic production rate of high-end rare earth functional materials [12] - Recent advancements include the establishment of a smart demonstration line for rare earth motors, showcasing significant improvements in performance and efficiency, indicating progress in high-end rare earth applications [12]

Group 1: Liquidity and Performance of Rare Earth ETF - The liquidity of the Rare Earth ETF managed by Jiashi showed a turnover rate of 0.92% with a transaction volume of 79.0687 million yuan [3] - Over the past month, the average daily transaction volume reached 550 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - In the past week, the ETF's scale increased by 21.6259 million yuan, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's shares grew by 13.5 million shares in the past week, marking significant growth and leading among comparable funds [3] - In the last five trading days, there were net inflows on three days, totaling 234 million yuan [3] - As of September 18, the ETF's net value increased by 121.61% over the past year, ranking 142 out of 3014 index stock funds, placing it in the top 4.71% [3] - The highest monthly return since inception was 41.25%, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being four months and a maximum increase of 83.89% [3] Group 2: Company Performance and Market Trends - On September 15, Galaxy Magnetics announced a suspension of trading to acquire 100% of Kyoto Longtai Technology Co., Ltd., with a preliminary agreement signed with 14 counterparties [4] - Northern Rare Earth reported a revenue of 18.866 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 45.24%, and a net profit of 931 million yuan, up 1951.52% [4] - The basic earnings per share were 0.2576 yuan, with a weighted average return on equity of 4.06% [4] - Demand for rare earth materials is rapidly increasing due to policies promoting "carbon neutrality," as well as the recovery in traditional manufacturing and the acceleration of humanoid robots [4]