证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 03 13 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 润泽科技（300442.SZ）-数据中心龙头，AI 拉动新一轮需求上 涨 今日概览 重磅研报 【固定收益】当前债市与 2022 年赎回潮有何异同？——20250312 【通信&计算机】润泽科技（300442.SZ）-数据中心龙头，AI 拉动新一 轮需求上涨——20250312 研究视点 gszqdatemark 2025 03 13 年 月 日 重磅研报 【固定收益】当前债市与 2022 年赎回潮有何异同？ 对外发布时间: 2025 年 03 月 12 日 【电子】胜宏科技（300476.SZ）-2025Q1 业绩大超预期，AI PCB 龙头 凌空起——20250312 | 作者 | | --- | 分析师 张津铭 执业证书编号：S0680520070001 邮箱：zhangjinming@gszq.com | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 机械设备 | 9.1% | 8.6% | 28.2% | | 钢铁 ...

[Table_Page] 深度分析|建筑装饰 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 建筑装饰行业 算力需求爆发、新基建政策双轮驱动 IDC 景气度向上，建筑企 业产业链多点开花 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-03-12 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -24% -15% -6% 2% 11% 20% 03/24 05/24 08/24 10/24 12/24 03/25 建筑装饰 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]耿鹏智 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524010001 | | | 021-38003620 | | | gengpengzhi@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 尉凯旋 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260520070006 | | | 021-38003576 | | | yukaixuan@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 乔钢 | | | ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Naxing Co., Ltd. is engaged in digital economy infrastructure services, serving over 5,000 leading clients across various industries [2] - The company operates over 80 edge data center nodes, covering nearly 20 provinces and over 30 cities in China [3] Group 2: Data Center Operations - Naxing owns two green data centers, with approximately 4,700 self-built cabinets, providing customized services for various industries [3] - The company aims to enhance its data center capabilities in response to the growing demand driven by the development of domestic AI models [3] Group 3: Business Strategy - The company plans to expand its IDC scale and resource nodes, capitalizing on the trend of industry concentration due to policy adjustments [4] - Naxing focuses on empowering small and medium enterprises and enhancing profitability through partnerships with local internet clients [4] - Strengthening the sales team for self-built data center cabinets to improve cabinet utilization rates is a key strategy [4] Group 4: AIGC Assistant Introduction - The company has developed the Xiaolu AIGC intelligent assistant in collaboration with Microsoft, aimed at providing AIGC application products and solutions for industry clients [5] Group 5: Specialized Equipment Business - The demand for specialized equipment is driven by large clients' equipment upgrades and the trend of cost-effective domestic equipment replacing imports [6] - Naxing's specialized equipment exports have reached a historical high, with overseas sales accounting for over 25%, primarily in BRICS and Belt and Road countries [6] Group 6: Market Potential - The overseas market for automation production lines is still largely untapped, presenting significant growth opportunities for Naxing [6]

因此，我们预计在上述问题明朗化之前美股将延续震荡下行行情至3月底/4月初。 建议关注：1）估值较为合理、防御属性强的医疗保健；2）内需驱动的服务类消费；3）高股息率的传 统电信和公用事业。 在关税、美联储货币政策路径等问题明朗化之后，且估值溢价也较为充分地消化后，我们判断届时美股 风格将重新切回到大盘蓝筹。 人民财讯3月12日电，中信证券指出，短期美股正面临着多重不确定因素，包括特朗普的关税政策，美 联储的利率政策，个别科技巨头的云计算、数据中心业务增速不及预期等。 此外，目前美股整体估值依旧高企，标普500和道指动态PE仍达21.0倍和19.9倍，处于历史79%和82%分 位数；而纳指100的24.7倍动态PE也对应历史70%的分位数。 此前经济"不着陆"、"减税和放松监管"的乐观情绪被充分透支后，在基本面走弱的迹象下，估值泡沫或 被进一步挤压。 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as servers, IDC, switches, switching chips, optical modules, and liquid cooling driven by domestic AI development, as well as servers and optical modules driven by overseas AI development [5]. Core Insights - DeepSeek has disclosed the theoretical cost and profit margin of its V3/R1 inference system, with a theoretical daily revenue of $562,027 and a profit margin of 545%. This advancement, along with the launch of the general-purpose AI Agent product Manus by Monica, is expected to accelerate the domestic AI application deployment and enhance profitability in the AI sector [1][10]. - The acceleration of AI technology iteration is leading to increased demand for computing power, prompting major internet companies like ByteDance and Baidu to potentially raise capital expenditures to expand their computing investments [1][12]. - The report highlights that in March 2025, Broadcom's Q1 revenue reached $14.916 billion, a 25% year-on-year increase, with net profit soaring by 315% to $5.503 billion, indicating strong performance in AI semiconductor revenue [1]. Summary by Sections Server Sector - Approximately 60% of the investment in large models is allocated to hardware procurement, with servers accounting for 69% of total capital expenditure. The year 2025 is projected to see a significant increase in inference demand, benefiting domestic ASIC chip manufacturers like ZTE and Unisoc [2][7]. Switch Sector - Network equipment procurement, including switches, constitutes about 11% of hardware procurement. Major suppliers like Ruijie Networks and Unisoc are positioned to benefit from the demand from leading internet companies [2][10]. IDC Sector - Data centers are crucial for AI development and deployment, with companies like Data Port and Runjian signing agreements to provide computing services. IDC suppliers are expected to benefit significantly from large-scale construction in 2025 [3][12]. Liquid Cooling Sector - The liquid cooling market is anticipated to expand significantly, with NVIDIA's NVL36/72 cabinets expected to be shipped in bulk by 2025. Domestic suppliers are accelerating their international expansion, indicating a promising growth trajectory [3][14]. Core Data Updates - In December, the three major telecom operators achieved a total telecom revenue of 141.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.10%. New business revenue reached 39.6 billion yuan, growing by 66.39% year-on-year [4][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring sectors such as servers, IDC, switches, switching chips, optical modules, and liquid cooling, driven by both domestic and international AI developments [5].

Summary of the Conference Call on GDS (万国数据) Company Overview - GDS is the largest third-party data center provider in China, experiencing significant cyclical changes in its business performance over recent years. [3][4] Key Industry Insights - The recent surge in the domestic integrated circuit (IC) sector is attributed to the rapid development of the AI industry and increased capital expenditure expectations from major tech companies. [3] - Major internet companies like Alibaba and Baidu have announced plans to increase capital expenditures, with Alibaba committing to invest at least 380 billion RMB in cloud infrastructure and AI over the next three years. [3][4] - The domestic cloud computing capital expenditure is expected to exceed 400 billion RMB by 2025, potentially reaching between 450 billion to 500 billion RMB. [3][14] Company Performance and Strategy - GDS has shown a marked improvement in performance starting in 2023, benefiting from industry recovery and its own international expansion. [3] - The company has a project reserve of 120,000 square meters of data centers under construction and an additional 320,000 square meters of land reserved in core regions to meet growing demand. [3][5] - GDS currently holds 9 billion RMB in cash, providing strong development capabilities and alleviating supply constraints through diversified chip sourcing. [3][6][8] Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - The overall utilization rate of GDS's data centers is approximately 74%, with domestic business utilization at around 73%. [5] - The North American IDC market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with vacancy rates declining and AI technology driving high-performance computing demand. [21][22] - By 2025, AI server investments are projected to reach approximately 300 billion USD, reflecting a 77% year-on-year growth. [22] Financial Outlook - GDS's cash reserves can support the development of 75,000 square meters of projects, and with project loans and leverage, its development capacity can be further enhanced. [7] - The company is expected to maintain a double-digit growth rate in domestic business, with a target market valuation of approximately 17 times by 2025, leading to a target price of 46 USD per ADS. [12] Future Considerations - Investors should monitor GDS's quarterly reports and annual outlook, focusing on domestic demand forecasts, capital expenditure progress, and new order pricing. [10] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from strong domestic demand and limited supply, which may lead to price increases among IDC providers. [10] Competitive Landscape - Other IDC companies are also adapting to market trends, with some focusing on computing power leasing and others integrating AI server sales with leasing services. [16][19] - Companies like Runze Technology and Huahuan New Network are leading in AI server sales and leasing, while GDS and Century Internet also have significant resource reserves. [17][19] Conclusion - The IDC sector is expected to see continued growth driven by AI applications and increased capital expenditures from major tech firms. GDS is positioned to capitalize on these trends, making it a compelling investment opportunity. [33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry [5][6]. Core Insights - The government work report for 2025 emphasizes commercial aerospace as a leading emerging industry, shifting from "encouraging exploration" to "scale and standardized implementation," highlighting its core position in the national modernization industrial system [1][15]. - Manus, a Chinese startup, launched the world's first general-purpose AI agent, which can assist in various applications beyond stock analysis, marking a significant advancement in AI capabilities [2][12]. - The 2025 Mobile World Congress (MWC) showcased innovations in 5G-A technology from Huawei and ZTE, which are expected to accelerate technological progress and the adoption of AI terminals [3][32]. Summary by Sections Commercial Aerospace - The 2025 government work report prioritizes commercial aerospace, indicating a qualitative breakthrough in key technologies, market applications, and industrial ecology, which will inject new momentum into economic development [15][19]. - Various provinces, including Beijing, Shanghai, and Chongqing, are implementing special support policies for commercial aerospace, which is expected to enhance industrial cluster development [19][20]. AI Development - Manus's AI agent can perform tasks autonomously, utilizing a multi-agent architecture to simulate human workflows, and has achieved state-of-the-art performance in benchmark tests [2][10]. - The AI agent trend is becoming mainstream, with major tech companies accelerating their development, indicating a shift towards a more integrated AI application ecosystem [14][37]. 5G-A Innovations - Huawei's AI-Centric 5.5G solutions and ZTE's new 5G-A products were highlighted at MWC 2025, showcasing the integration of AI with 5G technology to enhance user experience and operational efficiency [23][24]. - The report notes that the communication sector index rose by 2.81%, outperforming the broader market, with specific sectors like military information technology and satellite internet showing strong performance [38][40]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from AI development, such as ZTE and Unisplendour, and highlights the high dividend potential of major telecom operators like China Mobile and China Telecom [43][44].

Core Viewpoint - The completion of the merger between GCP International and Ares Management Corporation for a total transaction value of $5.2 billion highlights the ongoing interest in new economic asset investments globally, showcasing Prologis' mature capital operation model [1][2]. Group 1: Prologis' Capital Operation Model - Prologis is known for its keen market insight and efficient execution, achieving a core operating EBITDA of $2 billion over the past 12 months, with the recent transaction reflecting a PE ratio of nearly 30 times [2]. - The successful transaction is part of Prologis' strategy of "incubation-operation-monetization," which has established a high-efficiency capital appreciation model [2][3]. - Prologis has a history of significant asset transactions, such as acquiring IndCor for $8 billion in 2014 and later selling it for $18.7 billion, demonstrating its ability to create substantial asset value [2]. Group 2: Financial Impact and Business Focus - Following the merger, Prologis' net leverage ratio decreased from 27% to 24%, enhancing liquidity and allowing for a focus on high-growth areas [3]. - The international fund management business involved in the merger accounts for less than 10% of the group's core operating EBITDA, indicating a strategic shift towards optimizing the balance sheet [3]. Group 3: New Economic Infrastructure Investment Trends - New economic infrastructure remains a hot investment area, with significant transactions such as Blackstone's acquisition of AirTrunk for AUD 23.5 billion and BlackRock's $12.5 billion acquisition of GIP [4]. - Infrastructure assets, including logistics real estate and data centers, are increasingly favored by long-term capital due to their stable cash flows and high growth potential [4]. Group 4: Ares Management's Expansion - Ares Management indicated that the merger would expand its global real estate asset management platform, with expectations of a better fundraising environment by 2025 [5]. - The completion of the merger is expected to initiate fundraising for several private real estate equity funds in Japan, Europe, and the U.S. [5]. Group 5: Prologis' Focus on the Chinese Market - Prologis' international business transaction does not involve its Chinese assets, allowing it to strengthen its capabilities in the Chinese market, focusing on new economic infrastructure development [6]. - The company has a significant presence in China, covering 70 regions and managing over 450 logistics and industrial facilities, with a robust performance in logistics, data centers, and renewable energy [6][9]. Group 6: Logistics and Data Center Growth - The logistics sector is supported by strong macroeconomic and industrial demand, with a projected net absorption of over 12 million square meters in 2024 [7]. - The data center sector is experiencing explosive growth due to increased demand for private AI deployments, supported by favorable government policies in the renewable energy sector [7].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on power generation assets in regions with tight supply-demand dynamics and favorable competition, particularly recommending companies like Anhui Energy and Zhejiang Energy in the thermal power sector, and China National Nuclear Power in the nuclear power sector [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that new data centers are expected to drive an annual increase in electricity demand of 102 billion kilowatt-hours, with a total of 99.1 billion kilowatt-hours in green electricity consumption anticipated from both existing and new data centers [3][27]. - The establishment of the Inner Mongolia power market is noted as a significant step in China's electricity market reform, marking the fifth market to transition to formal operation [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of matching renewable energy sources with data center operations to meet energy consumption and carbon neutrality goals, suggesting that companies involved in renewable energy and waste-to-energy projects will benefit [3][45]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.72%, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 4.87% during the week [1][7]. - The carbon neutrality sector decreased by 1.52%, and the environmental protection sector fell by 0.54% [1][7]. Industry Data Tracking - The report tracks coal prices, natural gas prices, and carbon market trends, providing insights into the current market conditions affecting the energy sector [4][47][62]. Industry News - The report notes significant developments in the energy sector, including the launch of major renewable energy projects by Huaneng Northern Company, which includes a total capacity of 7.2 million kilowatts [3]. - The report also discusses the performance of various sub-sectors within public utilities and environmental protection, highlighting the fluctuations in stock prices of leading companies [10][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on renewable energy operators expanding their data center operations, as well as companies involved in virtual power plant services and distributed energy projects [3][45]. - It suggests that waste-to-energy operators located near load centers will have greater collaboration opportunities with smaller data centers [3][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the AIDC industry, consistent with the previous rating [3]. Core Insights - Major domestic and international manufacturers are making significant capital expenditures in the AIDC sector, indicating substantial growth potential in the infrastructure industry [4]. - The AIDC infrastructure can be categorized into internal and external components, with overseas value being higher compared to domestic counterparts [5]. - The AIDC sector is experiencing exponential growth in computing power and a significant increase in power consumption compared to traditional IDC [6]. - The report highlights the increasing capital expenditures by major players such as ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba in China, as well as the four major US tech giants (Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon) [19][22]. Summary by Sections AIDC Infrastructure Composition - AIDC is designed specifically to support and accelerate AI applications, featuring high-performance computing resources and large-scale storage solutions [11]. - The key differences between AIDC and traditional IDC include a significant increase in power density and computing power, with AIDC cabinets typically ranging from 20-100 kW [15]. Internal AIDC Components - High-power AI servers create investment opportunities in power supply, liquid cooling, supercapacitors, and BBU [25]. - The global market for AI server power supplies is expected to exceed $5 billion by 2026, driven by increased power density and efficiency [6][40]. - Supercapacitors are gaining importance in AIDC for their dual functions of peak shaving and backup power, with a projected market increase due to their integration into NVIDIA's GB300 [55][56]. - Liquid cooling technologies are becoming essential as cabinet power densities exceed 20 kW, with various liquid cooling methods emerging to meet high thermal demands [63]. External AIDC Components - The demand for UPS, HVDC, diesel generators, transformers, and switchgear is expected to grow significantly due to AIDC requirements [8]. - The UPS market is projected to reach 19.1 billion yuan by 2025, with leading companies like Kehua and Huawei holding significant market shares [9]. - The diesel generator market for AIDC is anticipated to reach 238 billion yuan, indicating a vast market potential for domestic manufacturers [9]. Major Players and Investment Plans - ByteDance plans to increase its capital expenditure to 160 billion yuan by 2025, focusing on AI computing procurement and data center construction [20]. - Tencent's capital expenditure is projected to reach 230 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 176% year-on-year increase [19]. - Alibaba aims to invest over 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years, significantly increasing its previous decade's total investment [20]. - Major US tech companies are also ramping up their investments in AI data centers, with total investments expected to reach $218 billion by the end of 2024 [22][23].