| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年12月9日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 314000 | 314800 | -800 | -0.25% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 50 | 50 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 314500 | 315300 | -800 | -0.25% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | 70.00 | 70.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | मोरिस | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -15329.05 | -16618.50 | 1289.45 | 7.76% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7.9 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, positive macro expectations and concerns about supply disruptions are pushing up prices, but the lack of full recovery in real consumption may limit price increases. Also, beware of price adjustments after the Fed's possible December rate cut. Consider low - buying opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. - In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions for copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so their prices are expected to rise [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: Supply has a contraction expectation, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4][8]. - **Analysis**: Codelco is raising the premium for refined copper supplied to Chinese customers in 2026. CSPT will reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026. In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased. On December 8, the average premium of 1 electrolytic copper spot decreased. As of December 8, copper inventory increased [8][9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure [4][11]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, alumina prices in various regions declined, and the alumina warehouse receipt decreased. High - cost production capacity has fluctuations, and the domestic market is in a strong inventory - building trend. The current large gap between futures and spot prices may lead to the spot price following the decline of the futures price [11][12]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to decline, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4][13]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased in some regions. In November 2025, China's un - wrought aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased year - on - year. An Indonesian aluminum plant will start trial operation in mid - December [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts continue to increase, and the market fluctuates at a high level [4][15]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, the price of some aluminum alloy products decreased. The import of scrap aluminum in October increased year - on - year. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some alloy plants face production cut risks. Demand has a marginal improvement, and social inventory decreases slightly while warehouse receipt inventory increases [15][16]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Social inventory has decreased, and zinc prices will have a short - term rebound [4][18]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, the premium of 0 zinc in different regions varied. As of December 8, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. A zinc mine in Australia postponed high - grade zinc ore mining. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has increased, zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and the domestic zinc export window is open [18]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Social inventory is decreasing, and lead prices may continue to rebound [4][19]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots increased slightly. The inventory of lead ingots in the social warehouse decreased, but the decrease may slow down. The profit of secondary lead smelting is high, and the production of lead - acid battery factories is at a high level [19][20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The non - ferrous metal market is generally strong, and nickel prices fluctuate accordingly [4][21]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, LME nickel inventory increased, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Recently, there have been transactions of domestic and Indonesian high - nickel pig iron. The market sentiment dominates the market, and the overall supply of nickel - related products is relatively loose [21]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The transaction price of nickel - iron has bottomed out and rebounded, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates [4][23]. - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel warehouse receipt decreased slightly. Recently, there have been transactions of domestic and Indonesian high - nickel pig iron. In November, stainless - steel production decreased slightly, and in December, it may decline further. Social inventory has not increased significantly, but there is still inventory pressure [23][24]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply concerns continue, and tin prices fluctuate strongly at a high level [4][24]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, LME tin warehouse receipts decreased, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased. The spot price of tin decreased slightly. The复产 of a mine in Wa State is slow, Indonesian tin exports are restricted, and African tin production is affected. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and demand from semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing [24][26]. 4. Market Monitoring - **Commodity Index**: On December 8, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2267.05, down 0.18%; the commodity 20 index was 2588.87, down 0.37%; the industrial product index was 2216.09, down 0.16% [154]. - **Non - ferrous Metal Index**: On December 8, 2025, the non - ferrous metal index was 2576.49, with a daily increase of 0.17%, a 5 - day increase of 2.55%, a 1 - month increase of 3.58%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.62% [156].

数据来源：海关总署 出口方面，中国11月未锻轧铝及铝材出口量为 57.0万吨，1-11月累计出口量为558.9万吨，同比下滑9.2%。 海关总署网站12月8日发布数据显示，中国11月铜矿砂及其精矿进口量为252.6万吨，1-11月累计进口量为2,761.4万 吨，同比增加8.0%。 | | | | | | | | | 金额单位：亿元人民币 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商品名称 | 计量单位 | 11月 | | | 1至11月累计 | | 2024年1至11月累计 | | 累计比去年同期±% | | | | 数量 | 金额 | 数量 | 金额 | 数量 | 金额 | 数量 | 金额 | | 进口 | | | | | | | | | | | 未锻轧铜及铜材 | 万吨 | 42.7 | 333.0 | 488.3 | 3.514.4 | 512.4 | 3.464.6 | -4.7 | 1.4 | | 铜矿砂及其精矿 | 万吨 | 252.6 | 521.3 | 2,761.4 | 5,344.9 | 2,5 ...

1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, tin prices are expected to remain strong within the year. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view on tin prices, hold existing long positions, and consider buying on dips. Keep an eye on macro - level changes and supply - side dynamics [1]. Nickel - Macro conditions are temporarily stable. After the valuation of nickel prices is repaired, the price drivers weaken. With the decline of the nickel ore benchmark price in Indonesia and the accelerating inventory accumulation in China, the medium - term fundamentals are loose, restricting the upside potential of prices. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000. Pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [3]. Stainless Steel - Macro conditions are temporarily stable, and the supply pressure eases slightly. However, demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory reduction is difficult. In the short term, there is an expectation of price repair due to low valuation and improved market sentiment, but the driving force is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract reference range of 12,400 - 12,800. Follow up on the implementation of steel mill production cuts and nickel - iron transactions [5]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the center of the lithium carbonate futures price moved down, with large intraday fluctuations and increased market divergence. The fundamentals remain generally stable with strong supply and demand. The market is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 90,000 - 95,000. Pay attention to the resumption of production by large manufacturers and the sustainability of off - season demand [7]. Industrial Silicon - The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand situation in December. Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips if the price falls to 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton [9]. Polysilicon - The current contradiction lies between the strong futures market with low warehouse receipts and the weak spot market with oversupply. Polysilicon futures may continue to fluctuate at a high level, but considering the weak demand, the probability of price decline is high. It is recommended to wait and see, and those with short positions can hold them [11]. Zinc - As TC gradually declines, smelting profits are compressed, and production is limited. The opening of the zinc ingot export space eases the domestic supply pressure, and the demand side shows structural improvement. In the short term, the downside space of zinc prices is limited, and the Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. Pay attention to the TC inflection point and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract reference range of 22,500 - 23,500 [13]. Copper - The high copper price is mainly driven by supply and inventory imbalances. In the short term, the price may fluctuate sharply, and in the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the price to gradually move up. Pay attention to the structural changes in domestic and overseas inventories and the risk of cornering the market, with the main contract reference range of 90,000 - 91,000 [15]. Alumina - The oversupply situation of alumina remains unchanged, and the price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate. The key to a market rebound lies in the actual production cuts of enterprises and the inflection point of inventory, with the main contract reference range of 2,550 - 2,800 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum - The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but there is a risk of a pull - back after the price rises. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision and the actual inventory reduction in China, with the main contract reference range of 21,700 - 22,500 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is expected to fluctuate narrowly at a high level in the short term. The ADC12 price has limited downside space due to cost support, but high inventory and high prices restrict upward breakthroughs. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and downstream procurement rhythm, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton [18]. 3. Summary by Directory Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.88% to 314,800 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 75% to 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit/Loss**: The import loss improved by 4.56% to - 16,618.50 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.87 [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 22.54% to - 550 [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, and refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF weekly inventory increased by 7.96%, and social inventory increased by 2.39% [1]. Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.29% to 120,050 yuan/ton [3]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Production Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrolytic nickel increased by 0.19% to 111,026 yuan/ton [3]. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.04% to 27,530 yuan/ton [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts increased by 20 to - 160 yuan/100 [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and SHFE inventory increased by 4.23% [3]. Stainless Steel - **Prices and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.40% to 12,700 yuan/ton [5]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore (1.5%, CIF) remained unchanged at 57 US dollars/wet ton [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts increased by 5 to - 90 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.80% to 93,250 yuan/ton [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 1,500 to - 80 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, and demand increased by 5.11% [7]. - **Inventory**: In November, total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 23.36% [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,450 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 105 to 155 [9]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% to 40.17 million tons [9]. Polysilicon - **Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,300 yuan/kg [11]. - **Futures Prices and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 2.47% to 55,510 [11]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: Weekly polysilicon production increased by 7.50% to 2.58 million tons, and monthly production decreased by 14.48% to 11.46 million tons [11]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 3.56% to 29.10 million tons [11]. Zinc - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.61% to 23,130 yuan/ton [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 5 to - 40 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56% to 59.52 million tons [13]. - **Inventory**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 5.27% to 14.03 million tons [13]. Copper - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.37% to 91,282 yuan/ton [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 40 to - 60 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05% to 110.31 million tons [15]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased by 8.41% to 15.89 million tons [15]. Alumina - **Prices and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.32% to 22,090 yuan/ton [17]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between AL 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 10 to - 15 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44% to 743.94 million tons [17]. - **Inventory**: National alumina explicit inventory continued to accumulate [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,700 yuan/ton [18]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts increased by 5 to - 50 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74% to 68.20 million tons [18]. - **Inventory**: Recycled aluminum alloy weekly social inventory decreased by 0.54% to 5.53 million tons [18].

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/08 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/01 100 3573 115035 31495 -1332.99 -112.30 31.0 47.0 69.10 159425 6475 2025/12/02 120 3264 115035 30568 -1557.87 -95.77 38.0 48.0 69.18 161800 6300 2025/12/03 155 3604 115035 28969 -1649.33 -113.35 38.0 48.0 88.38 162150 56875 2025/12/04 220 4473 115035 32139 -1611.35 -281.23 38.0 48.0 50.44 162825 64325 2025/12/05 210 4659 115035 30936 -860.77 -63.25 38.0 46.0 23.05 162550 6385 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhongjin Lingnan, has introduced a new strategy called "One Body, Two Wings" aimed at enhancing its operational efficiency and contributing to national supply chain security through the development of various metal processing industries [1] Group 1: Strategic Focus - The "One Body" aspect refers to the company being a leading enterprise with abundant metal resources [1] - The "Two Wings" focus on the vigorous development of copper, lead, and zinc smelting and deep processing industries, as well as the deep processing of rare and precious metals such as gold, silver, gallium, germanium, indium, selenium, tellurium, bismuth, platinum, palladium, and rhodium [1] Group 2: Development Approach - The company emphasizes both "external development" and "internal development" to drive growth [1] - A dual approach of "focusing on core business + capital operation" is adopted to enhance industry chain layout and optimize product structure [1] - The company aims to promote high-quality and efficient development through project construction, investment mergers and acquisitions, and capital operations [1]

有色金属周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251205 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内主要金属现货价格走势 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025.11.28 | 2025.12.5 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | 现货指标 | 2025.11.28 | 2025.12.5 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2601 | 87430 | 92780 | 5350 | 6.12% | 平均价:1#铜:上海现货 | 87340 | 91180 | 3840 | 4.40% | | 铝 | AL2602 | 21650 | 22400 | 750 | 3.46% | 平均价:A00铝:上海现货 | 21440 | 22010 | 570 | 2.66% | | 锌 | ZN2601 | 22425 | 23305 | 880 | 3.92% | 平均价:0#锌:上海现货 | 22370 | 22990 ...

根据交易商协会出具的《接受注册通知书》(中市协注〔2025〕SCP362号)，交易商协会决定接受公司超 短期融资券注册，注册金额为人民币5亿元，注册额度自通知书落款之日起2年内有效，由招商银行股份 有限公司主承销。根据交易商协会出具的《接受注册通知书》(中市协注〔2025〕MTN1166号)，交易商 协会决定接受公司中期票据注册，注册金额为人民币15亿元，注册额度自通知书落款之日起2年内有 效，由招商银行股份有限公司主承销。 智通财经APP讯，创新新材(600361.SH)发布公告，近日，公司收到交易商协会出具的《接受注册通知 书》，交易商协会同意接受公司超短期融资券和中期票据的注册。 ...

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年12月5日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 317600 | 309300 | 8300 | 2.68% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 200 | 250 | -50 | -20.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 318100 | 309800 | 8300 | 2.68% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | 133.00 | 92.00 | 41.00 | 44.57% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -17412.99 | -16070.31 | -1342.68 | -8.36% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 ...

有色金属日报 2025-12-5 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 铜 有色金属小组 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美元指数反弹，铜价震荡，昨日伦铜 3M 合约微跌 0.13%至 11434 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 90960 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 675 至 162825 吨，注销仓单继续增加，Cash/3M 升水维持偏强。国内电解铜 社会 ...