Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is showing a slowdown trend. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy in the medium to long - term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 7,765 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan; the position of the main contract was 361,076 lots, up 5,325 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 57,543 lots, down 3,110 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 52,137 lots, down 336 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon was 25 yuan, up 20 yuan [3]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 8,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 735 yuan/ton, up 345 yuan; the DMC spot price was 10,560 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The average prices of silica, petroleum coke, clean coal, wood chips, and graphite electrodes (400mm) were 410 yuan/ton, 1,670 yuan/ton, 1,850 yuan/ton, 490 yuan/ton, and 12,250 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - Industrial silicon production was 299,700 tons, down 36,050 tons; social inventory was 542,000 tons, down 17,000 tons; imports were 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; exports were 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The production of organic silicon DMC was 44,200 tons, down 800 tons; the price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon overseas was 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 24,179.3 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons; the production of aluminum alloy was 1.645 million tons, up 117,000 tons; the operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 67.17%, down 1.23 percentage points [3]. Industry News - From 2022 to 2024, Hesheng Silicon Industry's net profit declined by 37.39%, 49.05%, and 33.64% respectively. In the first quarter of this year, it faced a "double - decline" in revenue and net profit. The US Senate Republican leader plans to vote on Trump's bill, which restricts new energy and affects the demand for the new energy industry [3]. Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, the spot price of industrial silicon is weakly stable. Large factories in the southwest may start production due to lower electricity prices, and some small and medium - sized enterprises also have复产 plans. In Xinjiang's Yili region, the government will continue to subsidize electricity prices, resulting in a continuous supply surplus. On the demand side, the demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) is slowing down [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the developments and trends in the silicon industry in China, highlighting the growth potential and challenges faced by the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The silicon industry in China is experiencing significant growth, driven by increasing demand in various applications such as electronics and renewable energy [1]. - The Chinese government is implementing supportive policies to boost the silicon industry, aiming to enhance domestic production capabilities and reduce reliance on imports [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - There is a notable increase in investment in silicon production facilities, with several companies expanding their manufacturing capacities to meet rising demand [1]. - The article mentions a projected growth rate of the silicon market, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15% over the next five years [1]. Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the growth potential, the industry faces challenges such as fluctuating raw material prices and environmental regulations that could impact production costs [1]. - Companies are exploring innovative technologies to improve production efficiency and reduce environmental impact, which could present new investment opportunities [1].

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights a significant reduction in production from silicon companies in Xinjiang, leading to a rapid increase in the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon, indicating a response to the anticipated reduction in supply amid an oversupply situation [1] Group 1 - The announcement of large-scale production cuts by silicon companies in Xinjiang has triggered a sharp rise in the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon [1] - Institutions suggest that this price increase reflects expectations of reduced supply in the context of an oversupply in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Industrial silicon futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 7830.0 yuan, with a current price of 7690.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.26% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Haizheng Futures indicates that the industrial silicon market is showing signs of stabilization, although the fundamental factors do not support a price reversal due to increased production from Xinjiang and the southwest regions, leading to a rise in output [1] - Newhu Futures expects the industrial silicon main contract to maintain a bottom oscillation pattern, as the current demand from downstream sectors remains insufficient, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for aluminum alloys shows resilience, and the operating rate of organic silicon is recovering, which has led to a decrease in high inventory levels, primarily through warehouse receipts [1] - Despite the ongoing consumption of warehouse receipts, the overall inventory remains high, and supply is expected to continue increasing, while demand growth is limited, making sustained inventory reduction unlikely [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - The industrial silicon market is characterized by high inventory levels and an oversupply expectation, with the current market conditions leading to a weak maintenance of spot prices [1] - The overall market sentiment is leaning towards bearishness, with cost support remaining at lower levels, suggesting that the main contract will likely oscillate at the bottom, with recommendations to short on rebounds [1]

Core Insights - The 2025 China (Leshan) Silicon Industry Chain Development Conference emphasizes "technological innovation to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and industry collaboration for progress" [1] - The conference gathered nearly 600 representatives from various sectors of the silicon industry, focusing on high-quality development and collaborative paths for industry upgrades [1] Industry Developments - The Chinese silicon industry has transitioned from scale expansion to quality improvement, marking a historic leap [3] - The President of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association highlighted the need for Leshan to leverage the conference platform to optimize the business environment and promote high-end, intelligent, and green development of the silicon industry [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the importance of optimizing service chains and restructuring core competitiveness in the face of increasing international competition [3] Market Potential - The Chairman and CEO of Tongwei Co., Ltd. noted the immense potential of the photovoltaic industry, which is crucial for China's energy security strategy and achieving carbon neutrality goals [4] - The cost of photovoltaic power generation has significantly decreased, with costs reaching 0.1 to 0.2 yuan per kilowatt-hour in various global regions, showcasing its economic viability [4] Recycling and Sustainability - The importance of recycling in the silicon industry was highlighted, with potential savings of 200,000 tons of high-purity silicon raw materials annually through the recycling of silicon powder from the photovoltaic sector [4][5] - The semiconductor industry can reduce raw material costs by 30% through the recycling of high-purity silicon from chips using directional impurity removal technology [5] Conference Activities - The conference, hosted by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, will continue until June 26, featuring thematic reports, high-level dialogues, and workshops aimed at fostering consensus and promoting high-quality development in the crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry [7]

Report Overview - The report is the "Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report" by Nanhua Futures, dated June 25, 2025, written by Xia Yingying and Yu Weihang [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Industrial silicon is in the industrial cycle of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous supply surplus pressure. It is necessary to wait for inventory to be digested to a healthy level [3] - Polysilicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. If there are production capacity elimination plans or industrial integration agreements in the future, it is expected to improve the industry situation [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Price Range - Industrial silicon's strong pressure level is 7,600 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 24.0%, a daily decline of 1.00%, and a historical percentile of current volatility (3 years) of 72.2% [2] - Polysilicon's strong pressure level is 33,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 24.26%, a daily decline of 0.30%, and a historical percentile of current volatility (3 years) of 53.38% [2] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For high product inventory and inventory impairment risk, short futures (30% hedging ratio) and sell call options (70% hedging ratio), and buy out - of - the - money put options [2] - **Procurement Management**: For future production plans and raw material price increase risks, buy long - term futures contracts according to production plans, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2] Core Logic - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply surplus pressure persists. Supply may increase with the approaching of the wet season, and demand from different industries varies. It is necessary to wait for inventory digestion [3] - **Polysilicon**: It is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. If there are production capacity elimination or integration, the industry situation may improve [3] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - **Industrial Silicon**: Cost reduction space is limited in the short - term, profit valuation is low, and there is a high probability of supply disturbances; downstream enterprises' profits exist, and production enthusiasm is promoted by the approaching wet season [7] - **Polysilicon**: There may be production capacity integration and elimination plans; downstream enterprises recognize and buy polysilicon on the futures side; the phenomenon of high open interest in near - month contracts and few warehouse receipts may cause market fluctuations [7] 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - **Industrial Silicon**: The release of production capacity in the southwest region is expected to be realized as the wet season approaches; the rumor of joint production cuts by downstream polysilicon enterprises may become a reality [7] - **Polysilicon**: The failure of enterprise integration and elimination, and enterprises maintain the status quo of production; raw material prices are low and production profit increases, leading to increased production [5][8] Industrial Silicon Futures Data - **Prices**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 7,555 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.94% [10] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 504,119 lots, a decrease of 17.69% compared with the previous period; the open interest is 306,644 lots, an increase of 4.50% compared with the previous period [10] Industrial Silicon Spot Data - Prices of 553 and 421 silicon in different regions are mostly stable, with the price of Sichuan 421 silicon decreasing by 100 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.03% [16] - The basis of East China 553 and 421 silicon has decreased, with a decline of 8.9% and 5.08% respectively [16] Polysilicon Futures Data - **Prices**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 30,625 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 460 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 1.48% [24] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 146,141 lots, a decrease of 15.02% compared with the previous period; the open interest is 80,107 lots, an increase of 10.82% compared with the previous period [24] Polysilicon Spot Data - The prices of various types of polysilicon are stable, with no daily change [37] Silicon Wafer Data - The prices of N - type silicon wafers mostly show a downward trend, with the N - type silicon wafer price index decreasing by 0.02 yuan/piece, a decline of 0.02 [38] Warehouse Receipt Data - The total industrial silicon warehouse receipts are 53,263 lots, a decrease of 307 lots compared with the previous period, a decline of 3.52% [22] - The total polysilicon warehouse receipts are 2,600 lots, with no change compared with the previous period [40]

Group 1 - The opening ceremony and keynote speech will take place at the Jin Haitang Hotel Conference Center, 2nd floor on June 25 [1] - A buffet lunch for participants attending the opening ceremony will be held at the Jin Haitang Hotel Conference Center, 1st floor restaurant on June 25 [1] - All representatives will gather at the lobby of Leshan Huayi Hotel from 08:30 to 08:50 on June 25 to take a shuttle bus to Jin Haitang Hotel for the opening ceremony [2] Group 2 - After lunch, representatives will return to Leshan Huayi Hotel via shuttle bus from 12:30 to 13:00 [2]

工业硅期货早报 2025年6月24日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.1万吨，环比有所增加2.53%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.1万吨，环比减少13.41%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅 库存为26.2万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为 72800吨，处于高位，有机硅生产利润为82元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开工率 为68.4%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭库存为2.38万吨，处于高 位，进口亏损为674元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为655.4元/吨，再生铝开 工率为53.6%，还比减少0.55%,处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: June 23, 2025 - Report Type: Daily Risk Management Report on Silicon Industry Chain Enterprises - Analyst: Xia Yingying, Yu Weihan Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Industrial silicon is in the industrial cycle of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous supply surplus pressure. As the wet season approaches, enterprises in the southwest region are gradually increasing furnace starts, and the inventory may further accumulate. The demand side shows that the overall output of silicone enterprises remains stable, while aluminum alloy enterprises perform averagely. The high - inventory pattern remains unchanged, limiting the price upside [3]. - Polysilicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The PV rush - installation tide has overdrafted some future demand. On the supply side, raw material prices remain low, polysilicon production has increased, and downstream production schedules have slightly declined, with high inventory pressure still existing. If there are production capacity elimination plans or industrial integration agreements in the future, it is expected to improve the polysilicon industry situation [3]. Key Points by Category 1. Futures Price and Volatility - Industrial silicon主力合约: Strong pressure level at 7600 yuan/ton, current 20 - day rolling volatility at 28.0%, daily increase of 0.02%, current volatility at the 84.6% percentile in the past 3 years [2]. - Polysilicon主力合约: Strong pressure level at 33000 yuan/ton, current 20 - day rolling volatility at 25.76%, daily increase of 0.35%, current volatility at the 61.20% percentile in the past 3 years [2]. 2. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high product inventory and inventory impairment risks, short futures (SI2509/PS2509) with a 30% hedging ratio to lock in profits and make up for production costs, sell call options (both over - the - counter and on - exchange options) with a 70% ratio, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with future production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, buy long - term futures contracts of industrial silicon or polysilicon according to the production plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. 3. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Likely Positive Factors**: Positive domestic macro - policies may stimulate power demand growth in the long run; cost reduction space is limited in the short term, providing cost support; downstream demand enterprises still have profits, and the approaching wet season may boost production enthusiasm [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: As the wet season approaches, production capacity in the southwest region is expected to be released; rumors of joint production cuts by downstream polysilicon enterprises may become a reality, weakening demand; high inventory restricts price increases [7]. Polysilicon - **Likely Positive Factors**: There may be production capacity integration and elimination plans in the industry, which could improve the industry situation if an agreement is reached [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Inventory is still in an accumulation trend, and demand has not improved; the combination of low raw material prices and the approaching wet season may lead to increased production by polysilicon enterprises [8]. 4. Market Data Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures主力合约 is 7420 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan (0.41%); the trading volume is 292932 lots, a decrease of 285562 lots (- 49.36%); the open interest is 303119 lots, a decrease of 2437 lots (- 0.80%) [10]. - **Spot**: The price of East China 553 silicon is 8150 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the price of East China 421 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the basis of East China 553 is 730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan (- 3.95%); the basis of East China 421 is 1280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan (- 2.29%) [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts are 54184 lots, a decrease of 439 lots (- 5.29%); the inventory at the Kunming delivery warehouse is 8.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons (- 37.67%) [19]. Polysilicon - **Futures**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures主力合约 is 30615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1085 yuan (- 3.42%); the trading volume is 88450 lots, an increase of 334 lots (0.38%); the open interest is 78183 lots, an increase of 52026 lots (198.90%) [22]. - **Spot**: The price of P - type polysilicon (dense material) is 30 yuan/kg, with no daily change; the price of N - type polysilicon (dense material) is 33.5 yuan/kg, with no daily change [37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total polysilicon warehouse receipts are 2600 lots, with no daily change [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - China's economy shows a stable and positive trend, with the manufacturing PMI marginally rebounding in May, industrial enterprise profit growth continuing to turn positive, the central bank's 1 trillion yuan outright reverse repurchase maintaining a moderately loose tone, and resilient foreign trade exports. However, the trade war impacts the global supply chain and may exacerbate the stagflation risk in the US economy [4][9][53]. - The supply - side improvement is limited, with the operating rate in Xinjiang dropping to 60%, a slight recovery in Inner Mongolia and Gansu, and the southwest region approaching the resumption cycle during the wet season. Social inventory shows a slight decline, and the decrease in warehouse receipt inventory is mainly due to the monthly decrease in domestic production [4][53]. - On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises enter an active production - cut cycle due to shrinking downstream demand. The silicon wafer market orders are weak, battery enterprises engage in panic selling to reduce inventory, and the component market demand weakens significantly after the end of the rush - installation period. In traditional industries, silicone monomer enterprises' production - cut to support prices has little effect, while the aluminum alloy output and processing fees show a slight increase. It is expected that the demand side will still face downward pressure in June, and the supply - side will passively contract, with the oversupply situation difficult to change. Industrial silicon is expected to confirm the stage bottom support [4][55]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 2025 May Industrial Silicon Market Review - **Industrial Silicon Futures Price Continues to Reach Bottom**: In May 2025, industrial silicon showed a volatile downward trend. The main 2507 contract traded between 7130 - 8500 yuan/ton, with the price center moving down. The overall sentiment in the photovoltaic industry chain was weak, and the demand faced significant downward pressure. The traditional industries of silicone and aluminum alloy also had weak demand. By May 30, the main 2507 contract closed at 7160 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 16.1% [9]. - **Spot Market Continues to Decline**: By the end of May, the overall furnace - opening rate of industrial silicon decreased to 27.3%. The social inventory decreased slightly to 58.9 tons due to the decline in absolute production in May. The demand in traditional industries and the photovoltaic industry decreased, making it difficult for the supply - side to resume production strongly. The spot prices of mainstream grades such as 553 continued to decline, and it is expected that the prices of domestic mainstream grades will have limited rebound space in June [12][13]. Macroeconomic Analysis - **China's Foreign Trade Exports are Resilient, and Industrial Enterprise Profits in April Accelerate to Turn Positive**: In April, China's total foreign trade export value reached 535.2 billion US dollars, with exports increasing by 8.1% year - on - year. ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner from January to April. The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4% year - on - year from January to April, and the equipment manufacturing industry's profit growth was prominent [18][19]. Fundamental Analysis - **Limited Recovery of Northern Production Capacity, and Sichuan and Yunnan are Approaching the Resumption Period during the Wet Season**: In May, the industrial silicon output decreased by 3.6% month - on - month to 305,000 tons. The production capacity recovery in the north was limited, while Sichuan and Yunnan were approaching the resumption time window during the wet season. It is expected that the operating rate of the industrial silicon industry will rebound from a low level in June [21]. - **Expected Stable Export Volume in June**: From January to April, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 216,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. It is expected that the export volume from May to June will remain stable at 60,000 - 70,000 tons [31]. - **High - level Social Inventory in May**: By May 30, the social inventory decreased slightly to 589,000 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 8.6% month - on - month. It is expected that the social inventory will continue to decline steadily in June [34]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Chain Enters a Contraction Cycle, and Silicone Industry's Price - Cutting to Reduce Inventory Becomes the Mainstream**: In May, the polysilicon output decreased by 4.3% month - on - month, and the prices of silicon wafers, batteries, and components all declined. The silicon wafer market orders were weak, and the component market price reached a new low. The silicone DMC output increased slightly in May, and it is expected that the price will maintain a weak oscillation at a low level. The aluminum alloy output and processing fees increased slightly in May, but it is expected that the output will be difficult to grow significantly in June [36][38][39]. Market Outlook - The macro - economic situation is stable and positive in China, but the trade war impacts the global economy. The supply - side improvement is limited, and the demand - side pressure remains. Industrial silicon is expected to confirm the stage bottom support [4][53][55].