Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term bearish, medium - term volatile, with a price range of €67 - 76 [1] Core View - With signs of easing in the Middle East situation, the EUA price has slightly declined. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market [1] Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price is 74.51 euro/ton (-1.13%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.35. On June 16, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 324,550 tons, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euro/ton, and the auction revenue was 24,1820,000 euro [1][2] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 75.34 euro/ton (-0.79%), with a trading volume of 29,700 lots (0.00 change). The spot settlement price dropped 0.79% to 75 euro/ton, and the spot trading volume increased 0.70% to 2,962 lots. The container shipping carbon cost was 12.86 dollars/TEU [1][3] Bullish Factors - The EU is ready to accept a conditional 10% unified US tariff. There are differences in the market regarding the systematic impact of corrosion problems on the relatively new French Civaux 2 nuclear power plant [1] Bearish Factors - Austria calls for re - evaluating the EU's ban on Russian fossil fuel imports under the condition of peace in Ukraine. The US says it will postpone sanctions on Russia to reach an agreement. Iran hopes to ease hostilities with Israel and negotiate, leading to a drop in crude oil prices. Russia is slowly restarting the TurkStream pipeline to supply natural gas to Europe [1]

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 101 in 2025) [1] Release Date - June 16, 2025 [2] Latest Situation - Concerns about LNG supply disruptions have intensified, and excessively high energy prices may hinder industrial production [2] Auction Information - On June 13, 2025, the EUA auction price was 75.36 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 1.607 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.84, and the auction revenue was 121.1 million euros [4] - On June 12, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.71 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 3.2455 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.31, and the auction revenue was 235.98 million euros [4] Futures and Spot Information Futures - On June 13, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 75.94 euros/ton (up 0.73%), the trading volume was 29,700 lots (down 0.70), and the open interest was 32.45 (up 0.20) [2][5] Spot - On June 13, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 74.46 euros/ton (up 0.73%), the trading volume was 718 lots (down 4,564), the container shipping carbon cost was 12.96 US dollars/TEU, and the freight cost ratio was 0.70% [5] Investment Strategy - Short - term bearish, medium - term volatile, with a range of €67 - 75 [2] Bullish Factors - The escalation of the Middle East conflict has pushed up energy prices; the failure of the French Civaux nuclear power plant has led to an increase in natural gas and electricity prices in the European continent; the European Commission will propose new regulations on June 17, requiring energy companies to fully disclose the terms, volumes, and destinations of Russian gas contracts, aiming to ban the import of Russian gas by the end of 2027 [2] Bearish Factors - Affected by weak industrial demand and increased domestic pipeline natural gas supply, China's LNG imports have dropped significantly [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In mid - to late June, trading volume is expected to climb. In 2025, the remaining 40% of mandatory circulation allowances can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.5 - 0.6 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises. After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan, bottom - fishing demand emerged, but currently, the release of mandatory circulation allowances is insufficient, and potential selling pressure still exists. The market price is oscillating at the bottom and still lacks upward momentum. Considering the verification node, trading volume is expected to increase in mid - to late June [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Carbon Market Comprehensive Data - This week, the comprehensive price of the national carbon market rebounded significantly, with a closing price of 70.96 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.45%. The latest single - day average trading price in the national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market was 89.32 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.08%. The weekly total trading volume in the national carbon market was about 3.1549 million tons, a 42% increase from last week. Among them, the volume of block trading agreements was 2.75 million tons, and the volume of listed trading agreements was about 0.4 million tons, accounting for 13% of the weekly total trading volume (a decrease of 5 percentage points). Carbon quota 24 remained the most actively traded annual quota this week, with its trading volume accounting for 87% (a week - on - week decrease of 5 percentage points). The weekly total trading volume in the national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market was about 0.21 million tons, a more than 15 - fold increase week - on - week. The weekly average trading price in the national carbon market was 69.46 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.35%. The weekly average trading price in the national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market was 86.74 yuan/ton, a 1.68% recovery from the previous week, 25% higher than the weekly average trading price of listed trading agreements in the national carbon market [1]. - The closing prices of carbon quotas from 2019 - 2020 to 2024 were 69.11, 72.00, 71.50, 71.00, and 71.20 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week growth rates of 3.15%, 6.67%, 6.72%, 2.51%, and 3.55% respectively, and year - on - year growth rates of - 28.38%, - 25.39%, - 25.87%, N/A, and N/A respectively. The latest average block trading price of carbon quota 24 was 71.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.01% [7]. 3.2 Carbon Quota Market Data by Year - For different years' carbon quotas, the differences between the average listed trading price and the average block trading price were 6.46%, 2.54%, - 4.70%, - 0.05%, and - 1.55% respectively. The total trading volumes were 566, 246, 3010, 11629, and 1297 million tons respectively, and the proportions of block trading were 86%, 53%, 83%, 83%, and 77% respectively [11]. 3.3 National Greenhouse Gas Voluntary Emission Reduction Registration and Market Trading Data - In 2025, the first batch of registered emission reduction projects included multiple wind and solar power projects, with a total applied - for registered emission reduction of 9.48 million tons. The weekly total trading volume in the national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market was 0.2081 million tons, the weekly total trading amount was 18.0529 million yuan, the average trading price was 86.74 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.68%, and the premium rate was 25% [13][14]. 4. Recommended Strategy It is recommended that enterprises with quota shortages make batch purchases at low prices before the fourth quarter [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The auction price of EUA is 73.5 euros/ton (up 1.86%), with a bid - cover ratio of 1.56; the EUA futures settlement price is 74.36 euros/ton (up 2.34%), and the trading volume is 30,300 lots (up 0.28). The short - term strategy is bearish, and the medium - term is range - bound between €67 - 75. The latest CoT report shows that last week, investment funds' net long positions increased by 5.74 million tons, nearly half of which came from short - covering. The TTF strengthened due to factors such as French nuclear power maintenance and the EU's proposal to end the secret import of fuel from Russia. There are no new negative factors [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market - **Auction**: On June 11, 2025, the EUA auction price was 73.50 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the auction volume was 2.0725 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.56, and the auction revenue was 152.33 million euros. On June 10, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.16 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the auction volume was 3.2455 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.64, and the auction revenue was 234.20 million euros [3]. - **Futures**: On June 11, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 74.36 euros/ton, up 2.34% from the previous day, and the trading volume was 30,300 lots, up 0.28. The open interest was 32.07 million lots, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - **Spot**: On June 11, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 73.43 euros/ton, up 2.34% from the previous day, and the trading volume decreased by 3,958 lots. The container shipping carbon cost was 12.83 US dollars/TEU, with a freight rate ratio of 0.77% [4].

Core Viewpoint - Wuhan is taking a proactive role in promoting a comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development in the context of China's "dual carbon" goals [2] Institutional Initiatives - Wuhan serves as the national carbon market's "big data hub," facilitating the reduction of social emission costs through innovative carbon market mechanisms [2] - The carbon trading platform "Zhong Carbon Registration" has traded 653 million tons of carbon quotas since its establishment in 2021, with a transaction value exceeding 44.8 billion yuan, making it the largest carbon market globally [5] - The national carbon market has expanded to cover over 80 billion tons of emissions, accounting for 60% of industrial carbon emissions in China [5][6] - The high compliance rate of enterprises in the Hubei carbon market demonstrates the effectiveness of the market logic that "pollution has costs, and reduction has benefits" [6] Public Engagement - The "Wuhan Carbon Benefit" platform has engaged 1.6 million residents, quantifying 8.27 million reduction actions and saving 51,800 tons of carbon emissions over two years [7][8] - Young people in Wuhan are increasingly using carbon reduction amounts as wedding gifts, reflecting a cultural shift towards carbon neutrality [9] Innovative Practices - Companies in Wuhan are discovering new revenue streams through carbon trading, with one company generating 1.4 million tons of carbon reduction annually, translating to approximately 4 million yuan in additional income [11] - The integration of solar energy and carbon trading is becoming standard in industrial parks, with one park saving 5 million yuan in electricity costs and earning an additional 160,000 yuan through carbon trading [11] - The establishment of a 400-kilometer new energy demonstration line in Wuhan showcases a comprehensive energy supply for various new energy vehicles [12] Pathways for Low-Carbon Development - Wuhan is pioneering a "model-driven, all-domain promotion" approach to low-carbon development, exploring various scenarios for urban low-carbon transformation [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Last week, carbon quota trading prices declined in the European, US, and South Korean carbon markets, while the trading volume in the South Korean carbon market increased significantly. The cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances in the national carbon market decreased, while the weekly trading volume in domestic pilot carbon markets increased substantially. Two important events occurred in the field of green development [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Carbon Trading Market Tracking - **European Carbon Quota Price and Volume**: EUA spot price dropped by 3.53% to 69.48 euros/ton, and the trading volume rose by 54.3% to 28.7 tons. EUA futures price decreased by 3.59% to 70.41 euros/ton, and the trading volume declined by 24.11% to 335.2 tons [5]. - **US Carbon Quota Price and Volume**: EUA futures price fell by 3.59% to 70.41 euros/ton, and the total trading volume decreased by 21.91% to 135.26 million tons. UKA futures price dropped by 0.83% to 51.26 pounds/ton [9]. - **South Korean Carbon Quota Price and Volume**: KAU24 spot price decreased by 0.11% to 8940 won/ton, and the trading volume soared by 132.64% to 118.81 tons [15]. 3.2 Domestic Carbon Market Tracking - **National Carbon Market Carbon Quota Volume and Average Transaction Price**: The cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances (CEA) was 212.23 tons, and the cumulative transaction amount was 145.6572 million yuan. Both the trading volume and transaction amount decreased by 37.57% and 39.44% respectively. The average daily transaction price of CEA was 68.42 yuan/ton, down 3.56% [19]. - **Weekly Average Transaction Price of Carbon Quotas in Domestic Pilot Provincial and Municipal Carbon Markets**: Except for Guangdong Province, the weekly average transaction price of carbon quotas in domestic pilot carbon markets showed an upward trend. Compared with the same period last month, except for Guangdong and Shenzhen, the prices in other regions also increased. Beijing had the largest increase of 21.17% [23]. - **Trading Volume and Transaction Amount of Carbon Quotas in Domestic Pilot Provincial and Municipal Carbon Markets**: Trading was mainly concentrated in the carbon markets of Guangdong, Hubei, Shenzhen, and Tianjin, accounting for 99.04% of the total weekly trading volume and 98.13% of the total weekly transaction amount. The total weekly trading volume in domestic pilot carbon markets was 29.44 tons, a significant increase of 357.3% [25]. 3.3 Tracking of Frontier Technologies in the Dual - Carbon Field - **Release of the Report "Prospects for Industrial Low - Carbon Technologies under China's Carbon Neutrality Goal"**: From 2025 - 2035, it will be a period of large - scale application of low - carbon process technologies in China's industrial sector. From 2035 - 2050, process - disruptive technologies will be in the application stage, and from 2050 - 2060, carbon removal technologies will be deeply applied. The report also put forward a series of policy suggestions [26]. - **CCUS Technology Becomes a Key Path for Deep Decarbonization, and Government - Enterprise Collaboration Builds a Green Industrial Ecosystem**: On May 30, the first domestic production base of Hopu Green Carbon (Shenzhen) Energy Technology Co., Ltd. broke ground. It will have an annual production capacity of 1.5 million tons of carbon dioxide capture equipment. Globally, the number of CCUS projects is growing rapidly, and China's CCUS technology research and engineering demonstrations have also made rapid progress [28].

全国碳币场行情简报 (2025年第86期) 核心 20EA价格跌至70元附近后,抄底需求有所显现,但目前强制流通配额释放不足,潜在 逻辑 她压仍存,市场价格震荡磨底,仍缺乏上行驱动,综合价格5月底部或65°68元/吨。 国泰君安期货 发布日期:2025-05-30 今日 行情 近期日均成交量低于50万吨,综合价格接近预期底部区间 1、CEA:CEA19-20涨超4%，CEA22明显下跌:挂牌35.9万吨，大宗30.0万吨 2、CCER:挂牌协议成交量1.00万吨,成交均价85.50元/吨（-0.04%） 策略 建议缺口企业在8月底前分批逢低采购 (1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求，约0.4°0.5亿吨市场需求或由 盈余企业自愿卖出来满足。 重要声明 在公司具有中国证监会被准的期货交易咨询业务资格。本内容均观点和信息仅供国泰君安邦货的专业投资者参考。本内容难以设置访问权限， 装给您造成不便，鼓清谅解。吉您并非国泰君安期货客户中的专业投资者，请勿闻读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不构成具体业务的拉 个，亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议、且本公司不会因接收入收到本内容而视其为客户 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Gansu Carbon Exchange has faced significant backlash from investors due to a forced buyback of carbon credits at a price significantly lower than their purchase price, leading to losses exceeding 50% for some investors [1][2]. Group 1: Investor Concerns - Multiple investors reported receiving calls from the Gansu Carbon Exchange offering to buy back "Dianqiao Family Forest Carbon C1" at 40 yuan per ton, which is substantially lower than their purchase price of 70-90 yuan per ton [1][4]. - The forced buyback has resulted in a trading standstill for over a year, causing frustration among investors who are unwilling to accept the low buyback price [1]. Group 2: Gansu Carbon Exchange's Response - The Gansu Carbon Exchange issued a statement clarifying that it has never promoted or marketed the carbon credit products, and the claims of guaranteed high returns were made by a third-party sales representative [1][2]. - The exchange emphasized that it has not established any "lock-in" rules for trading and that the current situation arose from regulatory investigations into certain member units [2]. Group 3: Product and Transaction Details - The "Dianqiao Family Forest Carbon C1" product is linked to Jinyongcheng Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., which has a carbon credit development agreement with the Qiaojia County government [1]. - The Gansu Carbon Exchange has stated that it will facilitate the buyback process only after obtaining consent from the members involved [2].

Group 1 - The Chinese government has issued opinions to enhance the market-oriented allocation system for resource and environmental factors, focusing on carbon emission rights, water rights, and pollution discharge rights [1] - By 2027, the carbon emission rights and water rights trading systems are expected to be fundamentally improved, with a well-established pollution discharge rights trading system and a more robust energy-saving market mechanism [1] - The national carbon emission trading market will gradually expand its industry coverage, adding approximately 1,500 new key emission units, which could increase the market share of emissions from 40% to 60%, adding around 3 billion tons of emissions to the market [2] Group 2 - Fujian Jinsen's subsidiary, Jinsen Carbon Sink Technology, is actively participating in the development of greenhouse gas voluntary reduction projects in line with China's certified voluntary reduction trading policies [3] - Xingyuan Environment plans to trade forestry carbon sink-related indicators in the CCER market [4]

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Quotation Briefing (Issue No. 90, 2025) [1] Release Date - May 29, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Short - term: Neutral to bullish; Medium - term: Oscillation range of €67 - 75 [2] Core View - The MSR absorbs auction quotas again, and EUA strengthens against the trend [2] Market Conditions Primary Market - The auction price is 70.54 euros/ton (-1.36%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.87 [2] Secondary Market - The EUA futures settlement price is 72.07 euros/ton (0.43%), and the trading volume is 24,200 lots (-0.08) [2] Core Logic Bullish Factors - The latest CoT report shows that the net long positions of investment funds increase by 1.026 million tons [2] - The European Commission announces the annual EUETS surplus indicator (TNAC). In 2024, the TNAC is about 1.148 billion tons. From September 2025 to August 2026, about 275 million tons of quotas will be extracted from the auction volume to the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) [2] - The US Federal Trade Court rules that Trump's imposition of comprehensive tariffs on imported products is illegal and gives the government 10 days to revoke all tariffs [2] Bearish Factors - No new bearish factors [2] Other Information - Russia proposes to hold the second round of direct Russia - Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul, Turkey on June 2, 2025, clarifying Russia's conditions for a lasting peace agreement (including halting NATO's eastward expansion) [3] Data Tables and Charts Chart 1 - Displays EUA's latest auction market information including CBAM certificate price, EUA auction price, auction volume, bid coverage ratio, and auction revenue [4] Chart 2 - Shows the seasonal chart of EUA auction price trends [4] Chart 3 - Presents the seasonal chart of EUA auction bid coverage ratio [4] Chart 4 - Provides EUA's futures and spot market information such as futures settlement price, trading volume, open interest, spot settlement price, spot trading volume, container shipping carbon cost, and freight ratio [5] Chart 5 - Illustrates EUA's futures and spot prices and basis [5] Chart 6 - Displays the seasonal chart of December contract open interest [5]