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2026年美国劳动力市场展望:大逆转与再平衡
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-07 02:11
Group 1: AI Impact on Employment - AI adoption in the U.S. has increased from 3.7% to 10% in two years, with significant impacts on high-exposure industries and young workers[1] - The number of layoffs in October 2025 reached 153,000, a 175% increase year-on-year, with 21.7% of layoffs occurring in the tech sector[1] - Despite concerns, AI is not the primary cause of the employment downturn; the correlation between AI adoption and employment growth is weak (R²=0.09)[2] Group 2: Employment Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market has experienced a "low recruitment, low layoffs" state, with non-farm employment numbers showing a significant decline since early 2025[3] - Illegal immigration net inflow decreased by 1.6 to 2 million in 2025, explaining about 50% of the employment slowdown[3] - Government layoffs and tariff impacts contributed to 37% of the employment decline, while the influence of AI on white-collar jobs was only 7.6%[3] Group 3: Future Outlook - In 2026, the labor supply may continue to contract while demand stabilizes, maintaining a low equilibrium in employment levels[4] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise slowly, with a risk of triggering the "Sam Rule" at around 4.7%[4] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing monetary policy amid a "K-shaped" economic recovery, where labor shortages could enhance labor share while surpluses may lead to economic divergence[4]
国际打款结算
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-07 00:07
Core Insights - International remittance settlement is an essential part of cross-border trade, involving the transfer and clearing of funds between different countries or regions [1][3] - The evolution of international remittance methods provides businesses with more diversified options as global economic ties become increasingly close [1] Summary of Key Points 1. Basic Concept of International Remittance Settlement - International remittance settlement refers to the currency payment behavior completed through banks or other financial institutions, involving currency exchange and the transfer of funds from the payer's account to the payee's account [3] - The core goal is to ensure the safe and efficient arrival of funds at the designated account while reducing transaction costs and exchange rate risks [3] 2. Main Settlement Methods and Their Characteristics - **Wire Transfer**: A common method that allows for relatively fast processing but may incur certain fees and exchange rate differences [4] - **Letter of Credit**: Widely used in international trade, providing high transaction security but requiring a complex process with complete documentation [4] - **Collection**: Involves the seller entrusting the bank to collect payment from the buyer, balancing risk but potentially leading to longer fund arrival times [4] - **Emerging Platforms**: New settlement channels based on digital technology are emerging, optimizing settlement processes and improving fund circulation efficiency [4][5] 3. Factors Affecting the Efficiency of International Remittance Settlement - Financial regulatory policies in different countries can impact the speed and cost of fund transfers, making it essential for businesses to understand relevant regulations [6] - Currency exchange is a necessary part of international remittance, with exchange rate fluctuations affecting the final amount received [6] - The technical level and processing capabilities of settlement channels directly influence the speed of fund arrival [6] - The size of the transaction can affect the choice of settlement method and associated costs [6] 4. Considerations During the Settlement Process - Ensuring accurate recipient information is crucial to avoid delays or returns of funds [6] - Understanding the composition of various fees, including transaction fees and exchange costs, is important [6] - Monitoring fund arrival times is necessary to select the appropriate settlement method based on business needs [6] - Keeping complete transaction records and receipts is essential for future inquiries and reconciliations [6] 5. Impact of Emerging Technologies on International Remittance Settlement - Platforms like "Cloud Bridge Cross-Border" utilize digital RMB for cross-border settlements, offering alternatives to traditional payment methods, including same-day fund arrival and no transaction fees [7] - The platform employs smart contract technology for automated processing in various areas, enhancing transparency and efficiency [7] - It integrates various cross-border services, forming a comprehensive ecosystem to help businesses navigate international trade challenges [7] 6. Factors to Consider When Choosing Settlement Methods - Businesses should consider security, efficiency, cost, and convenience when selecting international remittance methods [8] 7. Future Development Trends - The international remittance settlement sector is continuously evolving, with technological advancements promising faster and lower-cost solutions [9] - Optimized regulatory environments will enhance cross-border payment efficiency [9] - The diverse needs of businesses for settlement services will drive innovation among service providers [9] 8. Role of Financial Service Platforms - Financial service platforms will play a crucial role by integrating resources and optimizing processes to provide comprehensive cross-border financial solutions [11] - The development of these platforms will help reduce operational costs for businesses and improve fund utilization efficiency [11] 9. Importance of International Remittance Settlement - International remittance settlement is a vital foundation supporting global trade, with methods continuously evolving to meet market demands [13] - Businesses need to choose suitable settlement channels based on their needs and stay updated on industry trends to manage cross-border fund flows effectively [13]
投资人梦碎!浙金中心祥源系列产品逾期未兑付...
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-06 23:46
12月5日,浙金中心董事长丁建林与祥源集团执行总裁沈保山均在浙金中心回答投资者疑问。其中,沈 保山表示:东拼西凑现在已无力兑付,目前集团资产600亿,主要是地产、股票,负债400亿包括银行、 施工单位和投资者投的产品。目前则寄希望于绍兴市政府注资成为公司白马骑士。 金石杂谈查询发现,浙金中心已进行系统维护,并停止兑付。不少网友反应,现在已无法提现。不少网 友担心,祥源系列无法兑现,那其他发行方发行的是否会受到影响? 其中,浙金中心此前全称:浙江金融交易中心,目前更名为:浙江浙金资产运营股份有限公司。就在 2024年10月,浙金中心被取消交易资质,虽不影响存量业务,但对于风险敏感的投资者来说,会第一时 间进行提现。 而本次兑付危机的祥源控股,天眼查显示,公司实控人是俞发祥,控制65%的权益,公司旗下祥源房地 产已被限高、列为被执行人。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 来源:金石杂谈 12月6日,多个投资者在社区平台反映,大家在浙金中心购买的理财产品(金融资产收益权)到期未兑 付,全部是"祥源"系列产品,该产品增信人为祥源控股集团有限责任公司(祥源集团)及俞发祥。 目前, ...
解码“投资福地”引力!全球企业家精英齐聚福田
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-06 21:20
2025深圳全球招商大会召开 12月5日 福田区连续三年获评 "招商优胜区" 以国际一流的营商环境 吸引全球企业与人才纷至沓来 成为名副其实的"投资福地" 查看详情 今天精彩继续 深圳全球招商大会 福田区投资考察活动举行 来自世界各地的企业家齐聚福田 开启一场"城市解码"之旅 他们都去了哪些地方 又发现了怎样的机遇呢 跟着小福一起往下看 河套深圳园区 在制度前沿定义创新的尺度 考察队伍第一站来到了深圳河畔的河套深港科技创新合作区深圳园区(下称"河套深圳园区"),这是《粤港澳大湾区发展规划纲要》中唯一以科技创新为 主题的特色平台,也是唯一的"一河两岸、一国两制、一区两园"的深港协同创新平台。 凭借区位优势,国际化科技创新规则机制在此无缝衔接:便利科研人员进出、探索国际互联网数据跨境安全有序流动、营造与香港趋同的税负环境……在 这里,深港科研人员、设备、数据、资本实现高效跨境流动。 透过展厅的蓝图与数据可以看到,河套深圳园区正聚焦生命科学、信息科学、材料科学等前沿领域,实行全产业链布局,致力于迈向世界级科研枢纽。 除了制度创新与产业链布局,为更好匹配企业空间发展需求,河套深圳园区还构建新质创新空间体系。 河套深圳 ...
中国人民银行新闻发言人就支持中央汇金公司稳定资本市场答记者问
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-12-06 14:20
答:中国人民银行坚定支持中央汇金公司加大力度增持股票市场指数基金,并在必要时向中央汇金公司 提供充足的再贷款支持,坚决维护资本市场平稳运行。 经济观察网,中国人民银行新闻发言人就支持中央汇金公司稳定资本市场答记者问。 问:4月7日,中央汇金公司发布公告,将持续加大增持ETF规模和力度。请问中国人民银行怎么看? ...
巨头收购巨头
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-06 13:55
当地时间周五,受政府停摆影响而推迟发布的关键通胀数据——美国9月个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数出炉。数据显 示,当月剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心个人消费支出价格指数同比上涨2.8%,增速较此前一个月有所放缓。 另外,美国密歇根大学公布的1年通胀预期降至今年以来低点,消费者信心也有所改善,以上消息强化了投资者对美联储 将在下周宣布降息的预期,提振了市场风险偏好,美国三大股指集体收涨,涨幅不到1%。 奈飞宣布收购华纳兄弟 两家公司股价5日走势分化 本周美国三大股指全部累计上涨 美股本周波动不大,三大指数全部累计上涨。道指累计上涨0.50%,标普500指数累计上涨0.31%,纳指累计上涨0.91%。 5日欧洲三大股指小幅波动 5日国际油价上涨 纽约原油期货本周累计上涨约2.6% 原油期货方面,周五,有消息称,七国集团和欧盟正在就以全面禁止海运服务,取代对俄罗斯石油出口的价格上限进行 谈判,加剧了市场对供应紧张的担忧情绪。另外,投资者预期美联储降息将有助于提振经济增长和能源消费,多重因素 推动国际油价小幅上涨,纽约原油期货和布伦特原油期货主力合约价格涨幅不到1%。受地缘政治风险推动,纽约原油期 货和布伦特原油 ...
刘世锦:经济增长更依托创新和消费,实施金融强国战略为之架桥
21世纪经济报道· 2025-12-06 13:27
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a robust financial system to support China's transition to a consumption-driven economy, highlighting the importance of capital markets and strong currency in achieving high-quality economic development [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Challenges and Financial Strategy - China's economic growth is shifting from supply constraints to demand constraints, with insufficient consumption being a primary issue rather than investment or exports [1][3]. - The implementation of a financial power strategy aims to bridge the gap between manufacturing and consumption, leveraging a modern financial system to support both sectors [1][3]. Group 2: Capital Market Development - A strong capital market is essential for selecting viable projects that are marketable, profitable, and have manageable risks, thereby enhancing resource allocation efficiency [3][4]. - As China enters an innovation-driven phase, the role of capital markets in project selection will increase, with more societal funds directed towards capital markets, particularly in light of declining real estate investment attractiveness [3][4]. Group 3: Currency and Internationalization - Strong currency is a key indicator of a financial power, historically supported by a robust economy, trade, technology, military strength, and a developed financial system [4][5]. - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) has significant potential, with a focus on increasing offshore RMB availability to enhance liquidity and facilitate its use in international trade [5][6]. Group 4: Manufacturing and Trade Performance - China's manufacturing value added is projected to grow from 26.6 trillion yuan to 33.6 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, contributing over 30% to global manufacturing growth [5]. - In 2024, China's total goods trade is expected to reach 43.8 trillion yuan, maintaining its position as the world's largest trader, with exports surpassing 25 trillion yuan, marking a 7.1% year-on-year increase [5]. Group 5: Implications for Consumption - The anticipated appreciation of the RMB could enable Chinese consumers to purchase better international products, thereby boosting consumption and enhancing the quality of human capital [6].
欧洲清算银行:如欧盟强迫其释放俄被冻结资金将提起诉讼
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-06 13:27
(央视财经《天下财经》)5日,欧洲清算银行首席执行官瓦莱丽·乌尔班就欧盟计划利用冻结的俄罗斯国有资产为乌克兰 提供巨额贷款发出严厉警告,称该提议"不切实际",并可能"破坏国际金融体系的稳定",如果欧盟强迫欧洲清算银行释放 资金,该公司将提起诉讼。 转载请注明央视财经 目前,约有1800亿欧元的俄罗斯资金被冻结在位于布鲁塞尔的欧洲清算银行。欧盟委员会希望通过动用这笔资产为乌克兰 筹集900亿欧元,但比利时拒绝支持该计划。欧洲清算银行首席执行官瓦莱丽·乌尔班在接受采访时表示,即使这笔资金从 欧洲清算银行的资产负债表中移除,俄罗斯仍保留追回这笔资金的合法权利。动用这笔资金将造成"巨大的不平衡",甚至 可能构成"没收"。 编辑:王昕宇 她警告说,如果欧洲清算银行破产或俄罗斯发起法律和经济层面的报复,包括扣押比利时在俄罗斯的资产,比利时将面临 严重风险。如果欧盟强迫欧洲清算银行释放资金,欧洲清算银行将提起诉讼。她认为,这些资产更适合用于和平谈判,而 不是援助乌克兰。 欧洲清算银行首席执行官 瓦莱丽·乌尔班:俄罗斯认为这是财产"没收",也就是掠夺了俄罗斯财产或者至少他们的权利面临 风险,所以他们不会就此罢休,他们拥有绝对 ...
深圳南山举办“六个一”“六个券”宣讲会招商街道专场活动
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-12-06 12:53
近日,深圳南山区虚拟园区招商街道企业服务站内座无虚席,创新创业"六个一"&"六个券"政策宣讲会 招商街道专场圆满落幕。这场由招商街道办事处、南山虚拟园区招商街道企业服务站主办,南山区科技 创新局、工业和信息化局、商务局支持的活动,以精准解读、现场答疑的形式,将政策红利直达企业, 为辖区产业高质量发展注入新活力。此次宣讲会吸引了60多名企业代表参会。 南山区此次发布的"六个一"2.0版与"六个券"政策,分别从企业发展全周期需求出发,构建起覆盖人 才、空间、资金、技术、服务的全方位扶持体系。政策自11月18日上线以来,通过"Ai南山"小程序实现 全程网办,让企业足不出户即可享受政策红利,迅速成为企业发展的"强心剂"。 在政策解读环节,南山区各相关部门负责人进行了细致讲解。"六个一"政策聚焦企业发展关键节点,提 供最高60万重点产业人才补贴、1年免租+2年优惠的安居支持以及最高500万"模力营"空间扶持、最高 2000万创业资金及5亿直投助力,为企业从初创到成长的全阶段提供坚实保障。而"六个券"政策则更具 针对性,其中"模型券"对企业AI投入给予50%补贴,"技改券"支持生产设备更新,"贴息券"每年最高补 贴300 ...
WDI: Good For Income And Bear Markets
Seeking Alpha· 2025-12-06 12:19
Core Insights - The article discusses the author's transition from a potential career in politics to a focus on value investing, emphasizing the importance of risk management and long-term wealth growth [1] Group 1: Career Transition - The author initially pursued a career in politics but shifted to finance after facing challenges in 2019, recognizing the need for financial stability [1] - The decision to study value investing was driven by the desire to make money work effectively and to safeguard against future setbacks [1] Group 2: Professional Experience - From 2020 to 2022, the author worked in a sales role at a law firm, where they became the top-grossing salesman and managed a team, contributing to sales strategy [1] - The experience gained during this period was instrumental in assessing company prospects based on sales strategies [1] Group 3: Investment Advisory Role - The author served as an investment advisory representative with Fidelity from 2022 to 2023, focusing on 401K planning [1] - Despite excelling in this role and passing Series exams ahead of schedule, the author felt constrained by Fidelity's reliance on modern portfolio theory, leading to a decision to leave after one year [1] Group 4: Current Endeavors - In November 2023, the author began writing for Seeking Alpha, sharing investment opportunities discovered through personal research and experience [1] - The articles serve as a platform for the author to communicate investment strategies and insights to readers, who are seen as partners in this journey [1]