北京商报讯（记者 李晗）北京市住建委官网数据显示，1月31日北京新房网签208套，网签面积15687.99平方米，其中住宅网签100套，网签面积13134.42平 方米；二手房网签453套，网签面积39708.88方米，其中住宅网签430套，网签面积38622.51平方米。 | 2025年12月存量房网上签约 | | | --- | --- | | 网上签约套数： | 19132 | | 网上签约面积(m²)： | 1659092.4000 | | 住宅签约套数: | 17200 | | 住宅签约面积(m²)： | 1549550.8000 | | 可售期房统计 | | 2025 年12月预售许可 | | 2026/1/31其 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 可售房屋套数: | 92738 | 批准预售许可证: | 20 | 网上认购 | | 可售房屋面积(M²): 7756745.3300 | | 批准预售面积(M²): 542294.9600 | | 网上认购面积 | | 其中 住宅套数: | 39416 | 其中 住宅套数: | 1808 | 其中 住宅 | | ...

今天分享的是：2026年中国投资展望：过弯加油，马年牛腾；东升西不落——政策利好有望超预期 报告共计：132页 中银国际发布2026年中国投资展望报告，题为"过弯加油，马年牛腾；东升西不落——政策利好有望超预期"。报告认为，随着 地方政府权责重构进入收尾阶段，宏观政策具备从"防御"转向"进取"的制度基础，2026年有望迎来政策层面的超预期利好。在 经济层面，报告预计全年实际GDP增速约为4.7%，CPI有望回升至0.5%左右，内需对增长的贡献将进一步上升。财政与货币政策 预计保持适度宽松，以支持经济平稳过渡与结构升级。 报告指出，2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，经济发展将更注重内需拉动与结构优化。新旧动能转换持续深化，以AI、半导 体、生物医药为代表的战略新兴产业，将成为推动经济高质量发展的核心引擎。与此同时，传统产业如房地产仍处于调整阶 段，但对整体经济的影响边际减弱。在外部环境方面，中美经贸关系预计呈现阶段性缓和，为出口与科技合作提供相对稳定的 窗口期。 在产业展望部分，报告强调科技制造、生物医药、绿色能源以及品牌文娱等领域具备较高的成长潜力。其中，AI技术不仅是提 升生产效率的关键工具，也是推动产 ...

Group 1 - The design plan for the second phase of Pingtan Wuyue Mansion has been publicly announced, marking the first practical implementation of the "good housing" construction initiative by the national and Fujian provincial government [1] - The project is set to enter the market in the second quarter of this year, aiming to provide residents with a better living experience [1] - The "Measures" issued by Pingtan last November include 17 targeted policy clauses that optimize planning management, addressing both public needs and business realities [1] Group 2 - The "Measures" specify that certain public facilities, such as wind and rain corridors and outdoor non-motor vehicle parking sheds, will not be included in the calculation of building area and density, benefiting both developers and residents [1] - The exemption from building area calculations alleviates development pressure on companies, allowing them to focus resources on creating high-quality communities that align with local living habits [1] - The "one certificate, multiple inspections" model in the "Measures" allows for phased acceptance of construction projects, significantly shortening the time from construction to delivery [2] Group 3 - This flexible management approach improves the efficiency of capital turnover for companies, enabling faster market entry for quality housing [2] - For homebuyers, this model reduces the waiting period for new homes, allowing for earlier occupancy and avoiding additional rental costs [2]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is shifting from a uniform price movement to a more fragmented and nuanced landscape, where individual property performance will vary significantly based on location and other factors [1][3]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - Housing prices are expected to diverge significantly, with core areas maintaining stability while less desirable locations may experience more frequent price adjustments [3][4]. - The disparity between listing prices and actual transaction prices will become more pronounced, emphasizing the importance of understanding real market dynamics rather than relying solely on advertised prices [6][8]. - The relationship between listing prices and transaction prices will become more complex, indicating that successful buyers will need to navigate an increasingly information-driven market [7][9]. Group 2: Living Quality and Buyer Behavior - The importance of a property's livability will increase, with buyers prioritizing comfort and practicality over potential price appreciation [11][14]. - The pace of home buying is expected to slow down, with buyers becoming more deliberate and cautious in their decision-making processes [13][14]. - Buyers will focus on practical considerations such as commuting distance, convenience, and maintenance costs, leading to a more thoughtful approach to purchasing [13][14]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Decision-Making - The emotional volatility in the housing market is likely to decrease, resulting in a more stable environment where price adjustments occur gradually [14][16]. - Understanding these changes in buyer behavior and market dynamics is crucial for making informed decisions in the evolving real estate landscape [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with predictions that housing prices will decrease to levels affordable for the average worker, as previously stated by influential figures like Jack Ma and Cao Dewang [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since 2022, the national housing market has entered a downward trend, affecting both second and first-tier cities, with 26 key cities seeing prices revert to levels from two years prior by the end of 2024 [3][4]. - In some third and fourth-tier cities, housing prices have plummeted to as low as a few hundred yuan per square meter, a scenario unimaginable a decade ago [3][4]. - The supply of housing has significantly outpaced demand, with over 600 million housing units available, far exceeding the total number of households in the country [4]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The decline in housing prices is attributed to a slowing population growth, with a notable decrease in the primary home-buying demographic (ages 25-40) [4][9]. - In 2025, the national sales area of commercial housing dropped by 6.8%, and sales revenue fell by 9.6%, indicating a surplus of listings in the second-hand market, exceeding 8.5 million units [4][6]. Group 3: Investment Perspectives - Both Jack Ma and Cao Dewang emphasize that housing should be viewed as a necessity rather than an investment, advising against purchasing multiple properties for investment purposes [6][7][9]. - The current economic climate suggests that saving money or diversifying investments may be a more prudent choice than investing heavily in real estate, which is facing long-term downward pressure [6][9]. Group 4: Policy Responses - Local governments are implementing various measures to stabilize the housing market, such as lowering down payment ratios and mortgage rates, but these short-term policies do not address the fundamental issues of declining demand and increasing supply [6][9].

Group 1 - The core event is a significant transaction where Shenzhen's state-owned enterprise, Shenhuaitong, acquired a 26-story apartment in the Baishizhou area for a total price of 700 million yuan, translating to a unit price of 37,000 yuan per square meter [3][7][8] - Shenhuaitong Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. was established in 1997 and has a registered capital of 15.63 billion yuan, fully owned by the Shenzhen Nanshan District State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [3][9] - The Baishizhou project, where the transaction took place, is part of a larger urban redevelopment initiative, transforming the area from a traditional village into a high-end residential zone, reflecting a broader trend in Shenzhen's real estate development [4][11] Group 2 - The Baishizhou project consists of multiple buildings, including three residential towers and two apartment buildings, with a total of 1,257 residential units and 1,489 apartment units [4] - The acquisition by a state-owned entity is seen as a confidence booster for the local real estate market, especially as residential prices in the area are reported to be at least 80,000 yuan per square meter [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with the successful sale of the first affordable housing project of the year, indicating strong demand and interest from homebuyers [1][3][6]. Group 1: Affordable Housing Market - The Shenzhen affordable housing project, Shen Tie Ming Zhu, released 181 units, which were all sold on the same day, achieving a subscription ratio of 1:3.6 with 662 qualified families applying [3][6]. - The average selling price for the project was 20,750 yuan per square meter, with the main unit types being 68 square meters for two-bedroom apartments and 86-88 square meters for three-bedroom apartments [3][6]. Group 2: Overall Real Estate Market Performance - In January, over 10,000 new and second-hand homes were signed, with second-hand home transactions increasing by 25% year-on-year and 7% month-on-month, indicating a steady upward trend in the market [5][8]. - The market is experiencing a significant increase in the supply of quality new projects, with notable sales performance from various developments, including the successful sales of projects like Zhongxin Xinyue Bay and Houhai Xijia Garden [6][8]. Group 3: Commercial Real Estate Trends - The transaction volume of commercial properties is also rising, with new commercial properties accounting for 35.5% of new home sales and second-hand commercial properties making up 20.5% of second-hand sales, reflecting a recovery in this segment [7]. - Small-sized apartments in prime locations are gaining popularity due to their lower entry costs and high rental yields, appealing to both self-occupiers and investors [7]. Group 4: Market Support Factors - The real estate market is supported by favorable policies, including reduced transaction costs and adjustments in commercial property loan requirements, which are expected to stimulate demand [8]. - Shenzhen's GDP growth of 5.5% in 2025 and the resilience of its economic fundamentals are anticipated to enhance residents' employment and income expectations, further boosting the real estate market [8].

2026年刚开年，各路大佬又开始了对楼市的新一轮"预言大会"。有人说要反弹，有人说还得跌，有人说"横盘稳着走"。 听多了是不是会更迷糊？ 那好吧，本期内容，我们不说虚的、不玩概念，就用踏踏实实的数据，把2026年楼市可能的走向，真话或许不中听，但往往最值钱。 01、房子没卖多少，"惜售"房东却变多了 不知道你注意到没有，最近二手房挂牌量好像没有以前那么"汹涌"了。 一组比较有趣的数据是，一般3-4月、9-10月是新挂牌房源的小高峰，早就成了一种定局，但是有意思的是，有些挂了很久还没有卖掉的"老房源"正在慢慢 的减少，是不是都卖了？ 不是！是很多房东自己主动撤牌了，他们之所以不想挂，原因其实不难理解。 有的挂了一半多不卖了，干脆直接下架观望一下；有的被中介或者身边人劝着以为"很快就会有回暖"…… 这种情绪，就叫"惜售情绪"，很像股市里"筹码被锁住了"的感觉，卖的人暂时不想卖，买的人在等。 再看需求端：买房的人气不爆，但也没断崖下跌，基本处于一个中间线，两边一对比，房源在减少，买家在犹豫，供需天平正在发生很微妙的倾斜。 市场还没热，但情绪已经在悄悄变化。 02、租售比2.47%，楼市触底了吗？ 咱们拿香港做一下参 ...

Core Insights - In January 2026, the top 100 real estate companies in China reported a total sales revenue of 190.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9% [1] - The equity sales amount for the same group was 132.14 billion yuan [1] - The top ten companies by sales included Poly Developments, China Overseas Land, and China Resources Land, with only Poly, China Overseas, and China Resources exceeding 10 billion yuan in sales for the month [1] Sales Performance - The average sales revenue for the top 10 companies was 9.33 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year [2] - Companies ranked 11-30 had an average sales revenue of 2.6 billion yuan, a decline of 25.6% [2] - Companies ranked 31-50 reported an average sales revenue of 1.03 billion yuan, down 21.0% [2] Market Dynamics - The decline in sales is attributed to the high base from January of the previous year when the market was more active due to policy changes [5] - The real estate industry is undergoing an adjustment, with a shift from "scale competition" to "quality competition," leading to resource concentration among stronger companies [5] - In January 2026, 32 companies among the top 100 reported year-on-year sales growth, with 10 companies experiencing growth exceeding 100% [5] Market Trends - The new housing market showed weak performance in January, while the second-hand housing market demonstrated notable growth, with transaction volumes increasing by 33% year-on-year [6] - The central government has been signaling stability in market expectations, emphasizing the importance of managing expectations to stabilize the real estate market [6] - Recent policy measures include lowering the down payment ratio for commercial property loans and adjusting monetary policy tools [6] Future Outlook - As the Chinese New Year approaches, real estate companies are expected to increase marketing efforts, which may sustain some activity in core city markets [7] - There are ongoing challenges for companies to convert financial restructuring into sustainable operational capabilities [7]

百强房企1月卖房"成绩单"出炉。 2026年开年，百强房企1月卖房"成绩单"出炉。 1月31日，中指研究院发布数据显示，2026年1月，TOP100房企销售总额为1905.2亿元，同比下降18.9%；同期，TOP100房企权益销售额为1321.4亿元。 房企销售金额前十依次为：保利发展、中海地产、华润置地、绿城中国、中旅投资、招商蛇口、中国金茂、建发房产、万科、滨江集团，其中仅保利、中 海、华润单月销售过百亿。 对比上年同期，房企销售位次已经发生了较大变化。头部房企中，保利、中海、华润、绿城的顺序未变，但万科从上年1月的第5位，下滑至今年1月的第9 位。中旅投资短期内成为"黑马"，闯到今年1月房企全口径销售榜第5位。 TOP10随后的房企中，招商蛇口、建发房产、滨江集团变化不大、依然位列其中，但是华发股份从去年1月的第6位降至今年1月的第18位，同期中国铁建 从第10位降至第13位，中国金茂则从去年1月的第13位升至今年1月的第7位。 克而瑞数据显示，1月全国重点50城市新建商品住宅成交面积约810万平方米，表现较为清淡，新房市场整体进入淡季；同期，重点13城市二手房成交面积 约810万平方米，环比上升16% ...