和预期升温，增强远期供应压力。另外，豆油供应充裕，替代优势良好，使得菜油需求维持刚需为主。盘面来看，近日菜油低位震 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 8981 | 1 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2352 | 8 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 39 197238 | -3 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) 972 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | -53 638009 | 3 7359 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | -29431 | -3354 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -39444 | 12096 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 3786 | -80 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 612.4 | 9 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约（2603） | 最新 4610.6 | 环比 数据指标 +14.8↑ IF次主力合约（2601） | 最新 4632.0 | 环比 +12.4↑ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2603） | 3034.0 | +8.2↑ IH次主力合约（2601） | 3032.8 | +7.8↑ | | | IC主力合约（2603） | 7320.6 | +70.4↑ IC次主力合约（2601） | 7398.0 | +64.0↑ | | | IM主力合约（2603） | 7419.0 | +85.4↑ IM次主力合约（2601） | 7547.0 | +71.8↑ | | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1599.2 | +6.8↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 2766.0 | +59.0↑ | | 期货盘面 | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 149.0 | +9.4↑ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 4365.2 | +65.8↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 2915.0 | +68.4↑ IM-IH ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in platinum and palladium futures prices is attributed to regulatory actions, external market declines, and profit-taking by investors, leading to a significant divergence in their price movements [2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Platinum futures experienced a substantial increase, rising over 15% from the day's low and closing up more than 4%, while palladium futures saw a significant decline, ending with a 7.65% drop, marking the worst performance in the domestic commodity futures market [2]. - On the NYMEX, platinum and palladium futures ended their previous upward trend with declines of 0.63% and 6.90%, respectively [3]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent price adjustments for platinum and palladium are a normal correction, as previous price increases were driven by macroeconomic factors, supply-demand imbalances, and investor sentiment, which led to prices detaching from fundamental support [5]. - The decrease in market liquidity due to the upcoming Christmas holiday has intensified profit-taking pressures, contributing to the price drop [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Most institutions predict that platinum and palladium will enter a phase of high volatility and wide fluctuations, with differing long-term fundamental expectations for each metal [10]. - Platinum is expected to have upward potential due to its diverse demand structure and the likelihood of supply shortages continuing into 2026, while palladium's demand is more concentrated and may face challenges from the rise of electric vehicles [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in platinum and palladium futures prices is attributed to regulatory actions, external market pressures, and profit-taking by investors, leading to a significant divergence in their price movements [1][3][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Platinum futures opened significantly lower but rebounded sharply, rising over 15% from intraday lows and closing up more than 4%, while palladium futures experienced a substantial decline, closing down 7.65% [1][2]. - The adjustment in platinum and palladium prices is viewed as a normal price correction after a period of significant increases driven by macroeconomic factors, supply-demand imbalances, and investor sentiment [3][10]. - The liquidity in the market decreased due to the upcoming Christmas holiday, which intensified profit-taking pressures and contributed to the price declines [3]. Group 2: Price Trends and Analysis - Platinum futures reached a new high of 700.9 yuan per gram, while palladium futures fell to a low of 515.65 yuan per gram, indicating a widening price gap between the two metals [6]. - Analysts suggest that the stronger fundamentals and investment attributes of platinum may result in a smaller correction compared to palladium during this downturn [6][10]. - The recent surge in platinum prices has been partially attributed to the significant rise in silver prices, as both metals share similar financial and industrial characteristics [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Most institutions predict that platinum and palladium will enter a phase of high volatility and wide fluctuations in the short term, with differing long-term fundamental expectations for each metal [10][13]. - The current domestic prices of platinum and palladium are significantly higher than international prices, particularly with palladium maintaining a high premium, suggesting potential for further adjustments [10]. - In the medium to long term, platinum is expected to have upward potential due to factors such as liquidity easing by the Federal Reserve and a stable demand expansion in both industrial and investment sectors [13]. Conversely, palladium's long-term demand outlook is weaker due to its concentration in automotive applications, which may be affected by the rise of electric vehicles [13].

Core Viewpoint - The "Guotou Silver LOF (161226)" fund experienced extreme volatility, with a significant price surge followed by a rapid decline, highlighting the risks associated with high premium investments in the context of soaring silver prices [1][2][5]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Market Dynamics - The "Guotou Silver LOF" fund saw a three-day consecutive limit-up, with a closing price of 3.116 yuan on December 24, representing a premium rate of up to 61.63% compared to its net value of 1.9278 yuan [1][2]. - Following warnings from fund companies and brokerages about risks, the fund was suspended and subsequently hit the limit down, with a closing price of 2.804 yuan on December 25, still showing a premium of over 40% [1][5]. - The fund's trading volume surged, with nearly 2 billion new shares added in just three days, indicating a strong speculative interest [4][11]. Group 2: Silver Price Surge and Its Implications - The recent surge in silver prices has been unprecedented, with COMEX silver prices increasing by 145.39% year-to-date, and the domestic silver futures contract rising by 135.73% [2][10]. - The influx of capital into the "Guotou Silver LOF" fund created a self-reinforcing cycle, where increased fund investments led to higher silver futures prices, attracting even more capital [2][10]. Group 3: Regulatory Responses and Market Risks - Regulatory bodies have issued multiple risk warnings regarding silver futures, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange implemented measures to mitigate risks associated with trading [5][13]. - The fund's arbitrage mechanism, which operates on a T+2 settlement basis, adds uncertainty for investors who purchased shares at high premiums, as they may face challenges in selling at favorable prices [5][13]. Group 4: Historical Context and Market Characteristics - The silver market is characterized by its smaller scale compared to gold, leading to more pronounced price volatility with similar capital inflows [6][14]. - Historical patterns of silver price surges and declines indicate a tendency for speculative bubbles, with past instances of rapid price increases followed by significant corrections [6][14]. - Current silver price dynamics are influenced by both short-term liquidity and long-term structural shortages, with a projected cumulative shortfall of approximately 25,500 tons from 2021 to 2025 [7][15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The RMB showed a significant strong performance against the US dollar at the end of 2025, with the offshore RMB exchange rate breaking through the key psychological level of 7.00, indicating a re - emergence of strong appreciation momentum [2]. - The appreciation of the RMB at the end of 2025 is driven by the resonance of internal and external factors, including the weakening of the US dollar index, the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread, and the concentrated release of seasonal year - end settlement demand [5][6]. - Although there are expectations for the RMB to appreciate and break through 7 and enter the 6 range in 2026, there are also potential risks such as geopolitical black - swan events, the domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations, and central bank foreign exchange policy adjustments [13]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. RMB's Strong Year - End Performance: Symbolic "Breaking 7" and Its Market Characteristics - **Offshore RMB "Breaking 7": The First Time Since September 2024** - At the end of 2025, the offshore RMB exchange rate broke through 7.00 during intraday trading on December 25, the first time since September 2024, attracting high market attention and indicating enhanced market confidence in the RMB [2]. - **Market Volatility Characteristics: Strong but Low - Volatility, Contrasting with the September 2024 Market** - The implied volatility of the RMB is at a historically low level, indicating a more rational and orderly appreciation process and providing a stable foreign - exchange environment for enterprises and investors [2]. - The RMB's strong performance at the end of 2025 is fundamentally different from the 2024 market fluctuations. The latter was driven by the global yen carry - trade unwind, while the former is based on the resonance of internal and external supply - demand factors [2][5]. II. Driving Forces for RMB Appreciation: Resonance of Internal and External Factors - **External Factors: Weakening US Dollar Index and Narrowing Sino - US Interest Rate Spread** - The Fed's interest - rate cuts led to the downward trend of the US dollar index, narrowing the Sino - US interest rate spread and providing an external environment for the RMB's appreciation [6]. - The seasonal contraction of market liquidity during the Christmas holiday exacerbated the weakness of the US dollar, contributing to the year - end situation of a weak US dollar and a strong RMB [6]. - The market is generally pessimistic about the US dollar's trend in 2026, and the divergence in the Fed's expected interest - rate cuts, the change of the Fed chairman, and the "de - dollarization" trend all add uncertainty to the long - term prospects of the US dollar [7]. - **Internal Factors: Concentrated Release of Seasonal Year - End Settlement Demand** - The concentrated settlement of foreign - trade enterprises at the end of the year is a more direct and strong driving force for the RMB's appreciation, as evidenced by the fact that the RMB's appreciation amplitude is greater than the US dollar index's depreciation amplitude [8]. - China has maintained a trade surplus for seven consecutive months, and there is still a large amount of pending settlement funds being digested, which supports the RMB's appreciation [8]. III. A Cold - Blooded Reflection under the Market's Optimistic Expectations: Appreciation Space and Potential Risks - **Appreciation Space** - Huang Qifan's view that the RMB will appreciate to 6.0 in the next ten years is based on rational deductions of China's economic fundamentals, trade - structure optimization, and RMB internationalization [9]. - The RMB's actual effective exchange rate shows significant appreciation potential, as the gap between the nominal and real effective exchange rates indicates that the RMB's real purchasing power is undervalued [10]. - The narrowing Sino - US interest rate spread, the central bank's monetary - policy stance, and the increasing attractiveness of the A - share market are all factors that support the RMB's appreciation [11][12]. - **Potential Risks** - Geopolitical black - swan events, the domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations, and central bank foreign - exchange policy adjustments are potential risks for the RMB's appreciation [13].

数据显示，12月25日上海黄金现货价格报价1000.70元/克，相较于期货主力价格（1008.76元/克）贴水 8.06元/克。 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 12月25日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1008.76 | -0.39% | 220136 | 182179 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 逻辑：美国就业数据改善支撑美元，贵金属冲高回落，全球主流机构上调价格预测，ETF 持仓持续增 加。数据：国际金价收报 4480.09 美元 / 盎司，微跌 0.09%；现货铂金跌 2.7% 报 2221.83 美元 / 盎司。 观点：短期偏强震荡，中长期上涨空间可期，关注美国经济及货币政策变动。 乌克兰总统泽连斯基公布俄乌"和平计划"草案20点细节，包括乌克兰加入欧盟、向乌克兰提供类似北约 第五条集体防御条款的保障、乌克兰将尽快举行选举等。但关键的领土问题仍未解决，目前的方案包 括"维持现状"、在顿巴斯地区建立潜在的"自由经济区"等。泽连斯基表示，不同意草案中提出 ...

2025年12月25日 IM每日行情 IM行情概要 IM成交持仓 单位：点、手、亿元 单位：手 股指期货数据日报 GALAXY FUTURES 1 IM每日基差 单位：点 单位：点 注：负值为移仓有收益 单位：点 IM日内基差 IM基差 IM年化移仓成本 IM分红影响 合 约 收盘价 现 货 当 月 下 月 季 一 季 二 中 证 1000 (500.00) (400.00) (300.00) (200.00) (100.00) - (140.00) (120.00) (100.00) (80.00) (60.00) (40.00) (20.00) - 9:30:00 10:30:00 11:30:00 14:00:00 15:00:00 IM当月 IM下月 IM季月(右) IM下季(右) -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 1/2 3/7 5/8 7/4 8/29 11/3 IM00-IM02 IM00-IM03 IM00-IM01（右） ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 12 月 25 日 om.cn 【粕类日报】外盘节日休市 国内盘面大幅上涨 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/12/25 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 3075 | 3 7 | 天津 | 340 | 340 | 0 | | 0 5 | | 2760 | 3 2 | 东莞 | 290 | 300 | -10 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2871 | 2 1 | | 280 | 290 | -10 | | | | | | 日照 | 300 | 300 | 0 | | 0 1 | | 2436 | 2 1 | 南通 | -16 | 5 | - ...

苯乙烯期货流通品质摸底检验是指2019年大连商品交易所(大商所)为确保苯乙烯期货交割质量标准与现 货市场实际流通品质相符，联合CCIC、SGS等第三方商检机构开展的一次大规模现货质量抽检行动。 其核心目的和做法如下： 3、摸底结论：检验结果显示，除抽提来源苯乙烯外，市场上绝大部分商品均满足期货交割质量要求； 这一结论促使交易所在正式标准中增设"硫含量≤1mg/kg"条款，用以剔除品质不稳定、产量小的抽提货 源，从而既保障下游使用性能，又确保可供交割量充足。 对期货市场的影响：检验结果直接支撑了苯乙烯期货交割标准的制定，提升了合约的可操作性与风险防 控能力。例如，标准沿用现货通行规则，降低了企业套保成本；同时，检验数据为后续质量争议处理提 供了基准参考，增强了市场对期货工具的信任度。 1、抽检对象：覆盖当时国内现货市场正常流通的苯乙烯货物，既包括主流路线(乙苯脱氢法)产品，也 包含产量小、品质波动大的"裂解汽油抽提来源"苯乙烯。 2、检测指标：直接套用后来正式发布的《苯乙烯交割质量标准(F/DCE EB001-2019)》全部项目：外 观、纯度、聚合物、过氧化物、总醛、色度、乙苯、阻聚剂(TBC)、硫含量等九项 ...