Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of cast aluminum alloy is neutral, and the short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [2] Core Viewpoints - Due to the spread of anti - involution sentiment, the futures price of cast aluminum alloy is oscillating at a high level. Traditional seasonal patterns are weakening, and the price is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. As of July 25, the combined inventory of alloy ingot factories and social warehouses increased by 0.57 million tons to 10.68 million tons compared to the previous week. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the smelting cost is rising. In July, although the total sales volume of domestic passenger cars increased year - on - year, there is pressure on sales growth as it is a traditional off - season [6] Summary by Directory Supply Side - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history. Scrap aluminum imports are also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. The refined - scrap price difference is rising trend - wise [9][14][19] Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy has slightly increased, and the price difference between ADC12 and A00 has converged. The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has slightly decreased, while the monthly operating rate has increased. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, the average production is estimated to be in a loss. The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy is rapidly decreasing, while social inventory is continuously accumulating. The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [27][37][39] Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum Rod - The production and inventory data of recycled aluminum rods are presented, including the production volume in different regions and the proportion of factory inventory in different areas [49][50] Demand Side - Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel - powered vehicles has rebounded, which has a positive impact on die - casting consumption. In July, although the total sales volume of domestic passenger cars increased year - on - year, there is pressure on sales growth due to it being a traditional off - season [57][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - Supply-side contraction policies need further observation. Given the low proportion of backward alumina production capacity and new production expected this year, the overcapacity situation may persist [12][13]. - Short-term commodity buying sentiment is subsiding, and the shortage of tradable spot goods is expected to ease. It is recommended to short at high levels based on market sentiment. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3050 - 3500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to warrant registration, supply-side policies, and Guinean ore policies [12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Futures Prices**: As of the night session on July 25, the alumina index rose 3.25% to 3245 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 16,000 lots to 409,000 lots. Policy expectations drove up prices earlier in the week, but prices fell on Friday due to a return to fundamental logic. The Shandong spot price was 3195 yuan/ton, at a discount of 53 yuan/ton to the 08 contract. The spread between the first and third continuous contracts fluctuated, closing at 1 yuan/ton on Friday night [11][24] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in various regions rebounded slightly this week. Prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang increased by 40 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, 65 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively, driven by policy and tight spot supply [11][21] - **Inventory**: Alumina social inventory increased by 58,000 tons to 4.047 million tons this week. Warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased by 2,100 tons to 9,000 tons. The registration volume of warehouse receipts rebounded slightly but remained at a historical low [11][69][71] 2. Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in various regions rebounded slightly, driven by policy and tight spot supply [21] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The alumina index rose earlier in the week and fell on Friday. The Shandong spot price was at a discount to the 08 contract. The spread between the first and third continuous contracts fluctuated [24] - **Bauxite Prices**: Bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. Imported ore prices were under pressure due to high arrivals and rising port inventories [27] 3. Supply Side - **Bauxite**: In June 2025, China's bauxite production was 5.19 million tons, and imports were 18.12 million tons. Imports from Guinea are expected to decline after June, but the annual supply will remain in surplus. The regulatory announcements in Guinea have caused market uncertainty [31][33][35] - **Alumina Production**: In June 2025, alumina production was 7.33 million tons. This week, domestic alumina production reached a new high of 181,200 tons [41][44] - **Alumina Factory Profits**: Alumina factory profits improved with the rebound in spot prices. Profits varied by region and raw material source [47] - **Alumina Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, alumina had a net export of 69,700 tons. The import window opened slightly, and small net exports are expected to become the norm [49] - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In June 2025, overseas alumina production was 5.11 million tons [53] 4. Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.65 million tons [58] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Start-up**: In June 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.03 million tons, and the start-up rate decreased slightly [61] 5. Supply - Demand Balance - The alumina balance sheet shows the supply - demand situation from January to August 2025 and the expected situation for July and August [64] 6. Inventory - **Alumina Social Inventory**: It increased by 58,000 tons to 4.047 million tons this week [69] - **SHFE Alumina Inventory**: Warehouse receipts increased, but the registration volume remained low. The inventory in delivery warehouses increased [71]

铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 中航期货 2025-7-25 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 | 数 关 | 业 幅 临 重 政 资 量 存 较 月 过 观 指 口 | | | | | | | | | | | | | ， 及 | | | | | 整 。 | 基 本 面 国 内 电 解 铝 运 行 产 能 变 化 不 大 产 量 ， ， 季 氛 围 的 阴 影 之 中 不 同 板 块 之 间 存 在 分 化 ， 。 2 4 日 中 国 主 要 市 场 电 解 铝 库 存 为 4 9. 4 7 月 万 ， 主 要 观 点 平 仍 处 于 相 对 较 低 水 平 对 铝 价 仍 有 支 撑 临 ， 。 " "反 内 卷 预 期 过 高 短 时 间 价 格 涨 幅 过 大 ， ， 游 消 费 仍 有 抑 制 基 本 面 供 需 叠 加 对 下 双 弱 ， ， 口 支 撑 关 注 中 美 谈 判 结 果 以 及 美 联 储 议 息 会 ， 沪 铝 铝 价 或 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 凯撒铝业 2025Q2 加工收入环比增长 3.0%至 3.74 亿美元，净利润环比增长 4.5%至 2300 万美元 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 经营及业绩情况 2025Q2 净销售额 8.23 亿美元，环比增长 1.57%，同比增长 6.5%。 2025Q2 合金金属套期成本为 4.49 亿美元，去年同期为 3.67 亿 美元。 2025Q2 加工收入为 3.74 亿美元，环比增长 3.0%，同比增长 1.4%。 2025Q2 单位加工收入为 1.30 美元/磅，环比下跌 1.5%，同比 上涨 4.8%。 2025Q2 的净利润为 2300 万美元，环比增长 4.5%，同比增长 21.1%。摊薄后每股收益为 1.41 美元，环比增长 7.6%，同比增 长 22.6%。 2025Q2 调整后净利润为 2000 万美元，环比减少 16.7%，同比 减少 25.9%。调整后摊薄后每股净收益为 1.21 美元，环比减少 16.0% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that "green" has become a core variable affecting valuation, orders, and industrial discourse power, particularly in the context of China's aluminum industry, which is undergoing a significant transformation towards low-carbon production [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - China is the largest aluminum producer globally, and the aluminum industry is energy-intensive and carbon emission-heavy, making the construction of a low-carbon aluminum sector crucial for compliance and future growth [1] - China's recycled aluminum utilization has reached a leading position worldwide, and the country is applying green electricity extensively across the entire production chain, establishing a globally competitive low-carbon aluminum industrial system [1] Group 2: Company Profile - Shandong Innovation Group, founded in 2002, has evolved into a world-class green aluminum technology industrial group and the largest downstream aluminum manufacturer globally, with over 20 subsidiaries and more than 20,000 employees [1] - Innovation New Materials, a subsidiary of Innovation Group, was one of the first to go public in A-shares to focus on low-carbon technology and clean energy production, creating a comprehensive green value system covering energy, materials, standards, and end products [2] Group 3: Strategic Transformation - Innovation New Materials has transitioned from a "manufacturer" to a "green value chain integrator," requiring a complete restructuring of its product, energy, technology, and standards systems to build a globally competitive green moat [2] - The company has established a renewable energy system in Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, and Shandong, pioneering a "wind-solar-hydro complementary" model for green aluminum, significantly reducing carbon emissions and providing energy sovereignty and long-term cost advantages [2] Group 4: Environmental Impact - Using recycled aluminum materials can reduce the carbon footprint of the raw material acquisition process by approximately 96%, and Innovation New Materials is among the first in China to achieve 100% recycling of all aluminum alloy products [3] - The company is set to recycle 1.21 million tons of recycled aluminum in 2024 and has the capability to accurately classify, trace, reconstruct, and recycle various types of scrap aluminum [3] Group 5: Market Positioning - Innovation New Materials not only provides green materials but also offers traceable, verifiable, and account-based "carbon assets," positioning itself to define the rules of the game in the global green aluminum market [4] - Companies that complete the green industrial restructuring, master core recycling technologies, and establish standard output systems will occupy advantageous positions in the future value chain [4]

文 | 陈明一 近期，韩国股民的海外投资偏好引发市场关注。 据中国基金报，来自韩国证券存托结算院（KSD）旗下SEIBro的数据显示，以成交额计，今年以来截至 7月17日，中国位列韩国股民最喜爱的海外市场第二名，仅次于美国。 值得关注的是，截至7月18日，过去一个月，韩国股民净买入金额排名前10的港股，中国宏桥集团 （HK:01378）以187.83万美元入围。 2024年，中国宏桥集团实现销售收入1561.7亿元、毛利421.6亿元。尤其中国宏桥去年净利大增95%，连 续两年股息率超过10%，过去5年股价上涨超过6倍，间接打破了外界对铝行业"重资产、低利润"的刻板 印象。 如果以时间为线，自去年以来，中国宏桥集团在世界产业资本的舞台上可谓异常活跃：2024年10月，中 国宏桥集团首次参与"香港ESG报告大奖"，斩获"优秀新力军奖"和"卓越碳中和嘉许奖"；2025年2月， 入选《2024胡润中国500强》；7月，集团董事会主席兼行政总裁张波登上"2025福布斯中国最佳CEO榜 单"，成为铝行业的唯一上榜者。 事实上，ESG相关奖项的获得，也印证了中国宏桥集团近年来坚持绿色转型战略的正确。 以水电铝为例，中国宏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US economy shows a mixed picture with manufacturing in contraction and inflation pressure rising, while the EU and the US are in trade negotiations and the ECB maintains interest rates. Domestically, the stock and commodity markets are positive, the bond market is under pressure, and various commodities show different trends affected by multiple factors such as trade policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment [2][3] - The prices of precious metals are in回调 due to the expected easing of trade tensions; copper prices are expected to remain high - level volatile; aluminum prices are likely to oscillate; alumina prices will stay in a short - term oscillation; zinc prices will adjust at a high level; lead prices will move horizontally; tin prices will oscillate at a high level; industrial silicon prices will be strongly oscillating; lithium carbonate prices will have a wide - range oscillation; nickel prices may oscillate strongly; crude oil prices will have their center of gravity lifted; steel prices will oscillate; iron ore prices will oscillate; and the prices of bean and rapeseed meal will have a wide - range oscillation, while palm oil prices may oscillate strongly [4][6][8][10][11][13][15][16][18][20][22][24][25][26][28] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US 7 - month Markit manufacturing PMI is 49.5 (in contraction), the service PMI is 55.2 (a new high for the year), inflation pressure rises, and business confidence drops. The EU and the US are close to a trade deal, but the EU has approved a 930 - billion - euro anti - tariff measure on US products. The ECB maintains interest rates, and the market's expectation of further rate cuts weakens [2] - Domestic: The A - share market breaks through 3600 points, with a trading volume of about 1.9 trillion yuan. The bond market is under pressure, and the 10Y and 30Y treasury bond rates rise to 1.74% and 1.95% respectively [3] Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures fall 0.77% to $3371.3 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fall 0.55% to $39.285 per ounce. The expected easing of global trade tensions weakens the demand for hedging, putting pressure on precious metals [4] Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper slightly falls. The US manufacturing contraction and the approaching tariff deadline make the overseas capital market cautious. Freeport's second - quarter copper production is 43.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1%. Copper prices are expected to remain high - level volatile [6][7] Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closes at 20760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.41%. The increase in the US dollar index and the weak US manufacturing PMI increase the pressure on aluminum prices. The inventory of aluminum ingots accumulates, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreases. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [8][9] Alumina - The main contract of alumina futures closes at 3355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.81%. The low - level warehouse receipt inventory provides support for alumina prices, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10] Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc has an intraday volatile and strong trend. The decrease in the position of an LME seat, the slight increase in LME inventory, and the slight discount of LME0 - 3 spot ease the squeeze - out concern. Zinc prices are expected to adjust at a high level [11][12] Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead moves horizontally. The high inventory pressure is not relieved, and the consumption improvement is insufficient. Lead prices are expected to move horizontally in the short term, and attention should be paid to consumption variables [13][14] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin oscillates at a high level. The decrease in the position of an LME seat eases the squeeze - out concern, but the rainy season in Southeast Asia may affect the transportation of tin ore in Myanmar. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [15] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon is strongly oscillating. The supply side is in a passive contraction state, and the demand side shows different trends. Supported by policies, the prices are expected to be strongly oscillating, but the risk of high - level decline should be guarded against [16][17] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate runs strongly, and the spot price slightly rises. The market is affected by various news, and the price amplitude increases. The spot market is cold, and lithium prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the short term [18][19] Nickel - Nickel prices oscillate weakly. The supply of nickel ore is becoming more abundant, and the cost pressure of nickel iron still exists. The introduction of the price draft may make nickel prices oscillate strongly [20][21] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices oscillate. The short - term geopolitical risk cools down, the EIA crude oil inventory decreases more than expected, and the macro - sentiment is strengthening, pushing up the center of gravity of crude oil prices [22][23] Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures oscillate. Multiple departments are promoting anti - involution competition rectification. The supply and demand of steel are in a weak balance. Steel prices are expected to oscillate [24] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillate at a high level. The supply of iron ore is sufficient, and the cost increase due to the rise of coke prices suppresses the bargaining space of iron ore. The demand remains resilient. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [25] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - The prices of bean and rapeseed meal fall. The water - heat conditions in the US soybean - producing areas are good, and the export sales of new - crop soybeans are slow. Affected by the protein - reduction policy, the long - position funds reduce their positions, and the prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [26][27] Palm Oil - Palm oil prices may oscillate strongly. The production of Malaysian palm oil is in an increasing cycle, and the potential demand from countries like India provides support. The market expects future supply to tighten [28][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US has initiated 232 investigations on aluminum and copper, and imposed tariffs on these two metals, which have had significant impacts on their prices, trade volumes, and industrial chains [3][26]. - For aluminum, tariffs have led to an increase in the premium of US local aluminum prices over LME aluminum prices, and a change in the import pattern, with a decrease in the import of aluminum products and a potential return of the aluminum processing industry [3][18][21]. - For copper, the implementation of 232 tariffs is expected to cause the Comex - LME copper price spread to widen, and there may be a situation of supply mismatch between the US and non - US regions. The return of the copper smelting industry faces many difficulties, while the copper products manufacturing industry may experience a return [27][34][40]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 US 232 Tariff Impact on Aluminum Analysis 3.1.1 US 232 Aluminum Tariff and Premium Review - In 2017, the US launched 232 investigations on imported steel and aluminum products. In 2018, it imposed a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum products, which increased the premium of US local aluminum prices over LME aluminum prices from 10% to 20% [3]. - In 2020, the scope of aluminum import tariffs was expanded. In 2025, the aluminum tariff was raised from 10% to 25%, and then to 50%, causing the premium of US aluminum prices over LME aluminum prices to rise from 20% to 60% [6][8]. 3.1.2 US Aluminum Production and Imports and Exports - In 2024, US electrolytic aluminum production was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from 2023. The main sources of imported aluminum ingots were Canada, South Africa, Argentina, and the UAE, with imports from Canada accounting for 78.8% [11]. - After the exemption for all importing countries was cancelled in March 2025, there was a short - term rush to import, but the annual import volume of aluminum ingots may remain stable [11][12]. 3.1.3 Increase in US Primary Aluminum Imports and Decrease in Aluminum Product Imports - After the Trump tariff policies in 2018 and 2020, the import volume of aluminum and aluminum products showed a short - term decline and then recovered. From 2023 to 2024, the total import volume of aluminum ingots remained stable, but the total import volume of all aluminum products decreased significantly, while exports remained relatively stable [18]. - After 2017, the import volume of aluminum products decreased significantly, while the import volume of un - wrought aluminum and alloys increased. The import volume of aluminum containers decreased, and the export volume increased, indicating a potential return of the US aluminum processing and manufacturing industries [21]. 3.2 US 232 Tariff Impact on Copper Analysis 3.2.1 US 232 Copper Tariff Review - In February 2025, Trump signed an executive order to initiate a 232 investigation on copper. On July 9, it was announced that a 50% tariff on copper would be imposed starting from August 1, 2025, due to the US's increasing dependence on foreign copper and insufficient smelting and refining capabilities [26][27]. 3.2.2 Widening of Comex - LME Spread - Before the copper tariff rate was determined, the Comex - LME spread gradually expanded from 0 to 10%. After the 25% aluminum tariff took effect in March 2025, the market's expectation of the copper tariff increased, and the spread reached a premium level of 16.8% [27]. - After July 8, 2025, when the 50% copper tariff was announced, the Comex copper price rose rapidly, and the Comex - LME spread exceeded $3000/ton. However, the premium of Comex over LME has been lower than the tariff level, and if there is no exemption, the spread is expected to rebound to over 40% [29][30]. 3.2.3 Transfer of Refined Copper and Supply Mismatch - The rush to import copper started in April 2025. In April and May, the US imported 200,000 tons and 210,000 tons of refined copper respectively, far exceeding the historical average. This led to a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions and a decline in LME inventory [34]. - Due to the supply shortage in non - US regions from April to June, the market was in a back structure, and the inventory of the entire industrial chain was cleared. Even if supply increases after the implementation of the 232 tariff, the inventory increase may be lower than expected [35]. 3.2.4 Setback in Copper Smelting Return and Potential Breakthrough in Processing - The return of the US aluminum smelting industry has faced difficulties due to high electricity costs and old equipment. In contrast, the aluminum processing industry has shown signs of return [38]. - The return of the copper smelting industry also faces problems such as high restart costs of old equipment, high environmental protection costs, complex approvals, and low copper processing fees. The copper products manufacturing industry may experience a return, and Canada may be the most affected country [39][40]. 3.3 Summary - If there is no exemption for the 232 copper tariff, the Comex - LME spread will rebound to over 40%. If major importing countries are exempted, Comex copper may plummet, and the spread may fall to 0 - 10%. If non - major importing countries are exempted, the spread may remain at 30 - 40% [42]. - Limiting the export of copper concentrates and scrap copper while exempting refined copper from major importing countries may lead to a decline in the Comex - LME spread and a new round of copper price increases due to a shortage of global raw material supply [42]. - The copper smelting return has a long cycle and many difficulties, while the copper products manufacturing industry has a shorter construction cycle and is more likely to return, with an expected production cycle of about 2 years [44].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index reaching nearly four-year highs, while the Hang Seng Tech Index slightly declined [1] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.51% to 25,667.18 points with a total turnover of HKD 294.81 billion [1] - The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains positive, with expectations of continued strength in the second half of the year due to national support and increased capital inflow [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - China Hongqiao (01378) reached a new high, closing up 6.28% at HKD 22, contributing 5.77 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Morgan Stanley upgraded its target price for China Hongqiao from HKD 18.50 to HKD 24.80, citing the company's cost competitiveness and integrated supply chain [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances include Xinyi Solar (00968) up 7.92% and Zhongsheng Group (00881) up 5.86% [2] Sector Highlights Technology Sector - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Alibaba down 0.5% while Tencent and Meituan both rose nearly 1% [3] - Semiconductor stocks saw gains, with ASMPT (00522) up 11.08% and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) up 6.99% [4] Lithium and Solar Sectors - Lithium stocks performed strongly, with Tianqi Lithium (09696) up 14.1% and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up 10.39% [7] - The price of lithium carbonate futures reached a new high, reflecting strong market sentiment [7] - Solar stocks also saw significant gains, with New Special Energy (01799) up 9.02% and Xinyi Solar (00968) up 7.92% [5] Pharmaceutical Sector - Pharmaceutical stocks performed well, with notable increases in shares of CloudTop New Drug (01952) up 9.69% and Cansino Biologics (06185) up 9.03% [3][4] Economic and Policy Developments - The National Medical Insurance Administration announced the optimization of drug procurement rules, which may benefit companies with strong quality systems and cost advantages [4] - The semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales are projected to reach a record USD 125.5 billion by 2025, indicating a positive growth outlook for the sector [5] Notable Stock Movements - Western Cement (02233) surged 16.48% after announcing a significant profit increase for the first half of the year [9] - China Duty Free Group (01880) rose 15.21% following the announcement of the Hainan Free Trade Port's closure date [10] - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) increased by 9.27% due to multiple price hikes in corrugated paper [11] - E-Surfing (02550) fell 8.27% after announcing a share placement at a discount [12]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Ming Tai Aluminum Industry plans to establish Henan Ming Tai Aluminum Industry Group, with no changes to its main business or development direction after the formation of the group [1] - The board of directors has proposed to authorize the management and staff to handle all matters related to the establishment of the group according to the requirements of the market supervision and administration department [1] - The proposal will be submitted for approval at the company's second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 [1]