Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery sector is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profitability. Companies like SF Express and JD Logistics are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and ongoing cost reductions, presenting dual upside potential in performance and valuation [14] - In the shipping sector, the outlook for crude oil transportation is favorable due to the OPEC+ production increase and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The market for VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) is expected to see significant improvement in Q4 2025 [14] - The shipbuilding sector is in the early stages of a green renewal cycle, with shipping market conditions and green upgrade progress being key demand drivers. Despite a decline in new ship orders, shipyards remain busy, and the market is expected to improve in the second half of 2025 [14] - The aviation sector shows signs of a long-term bullish trend, with stable demand growth and tightening supply. Companies like China Eastern Airlines and Hainan Airlines are recommended for early positioning [14] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is seeing a significant increase in demand, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9% in business volume and 4.7% in revenue as of October 2025 [24] - Major players like YTO Express and SF Express are expanding their market shares and improving service capabilities, with SF Express showing a 26.26% increase in business volume [31][24] Shipping - The VLCC daily earnings reached $120,248 in November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 270.9%, marking the best performance for November since 2004 [6] - The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) surpassed 2500 points, indicating a strong demand for bulk shipping, driven by increased shipments from Australian miners and adverse weather affecting port operations in North China [7] Aviation - In October 2025, civil aviation in China recorded a passenger transport volume of 67.83 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and cargo transport volume of 91.7 thousand tons, up 13.4% [10] - Approximately 6000 Airbus A320 aircraft require urgent software updates due to safety concerns, which may impact operational efficiency [10] Port Operations - From November 17 to November 23, 2025, China's port cargo throughput was 26,401 million tons, a decrease of 0.62% week-on-week, while container throughput increased by 5.39% [72]

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for companies in the logistics and aviation sectors, specifically highlighting SF Holding and China Southern Airlines as key investment opportunities [2][3]. Core Insights - The logistics sector is benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition, with a notable rise in express delivery volumes during the peak season [2]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a recovery, with an increase in flight operations and passenger volumes, indicating a positive trend for airline profitability [3]. - The shipping industry shows signs of improvement, particularly in dry bulk transportation, driven by increased cargo demand and adverse weather conditions affecting vessel turnover [4]. Summary by Sections Transportation Sector Market Review - The transportation index decreased by 0.5% during the week of November 22-28, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.6% [12]. Logistics - The express delivery sector saw a total collection volume of approximately 4.126 billion packages, a week-on-week increase of 1.65% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.63% [2]. - The report recommends SF Holding due to its valuation, operational resilience, and improved shareholder returns [2]. Aviation - The average daily flight operations increased by 4.16% year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 2.80% and international flights up by 12.41% [3]. - The report highlights the potential for profit growth in the aviation sector due to supply constraints from manufacturers and improved ticket pricing [3]. - Recommended stocks include China Southern Airlines and Air China [3]. Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose to 2409 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.8% and a year-on-year increase of 62.9% [4]. - The report notes that the dry bulk market is experiencing a positive shift, with increased demand for coal and grain shipments [4]. Road and Rail - The report indicates a stable upward trend in the road transport sector, with a year-on-year increase in truck traffic on highways [5]. - The railway sector also shows positive growth, with passenger turnover increasing by 10.14% year-on-year [86].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery industry is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profit elasticity, and creating favorable competition opportunities in the medium to long term [15] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in the oil transportation market's outlook for Q4 2025 [15] - The shipping market is anticipated to recover, supported by environmental regulations limiting the operation of older fleets and the upcoming production of the West Manganese iron ore by the end of 2025 [15] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In October 2025, the express delivery industry achieved a business volume of 17.6 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with revenue reaching 131.67 billion yuan, up 4.7% year-on-year [4][24] - Major players like YTO, Shentong, and Yunda showed varied growth rates, with YTO's volume increasing by 12.78% and Shentong by 3.97%, while Yunda's volume decreased by 5.11% [4][30] - The industry is transitioning towards high-quality development, with significant improvements in single-ticket revenue due to price increases driven by the de-involution trend [4] Shipping and Ports - VLCC freight rates reached a new high of $136,843 per day, the highest since Q2 2020, driven by tight available capacity and stable inquiry rhythms [8] - The Capesize bulk carrier spot freight rates surpassed $30,000 per day, reflecting a 20% increase over the past week, supported by seasonal demand recovery and strong import demand from China [8] - The BDI index increased by 7.1% to 2225 points, indicating a robust recovery in the bulk shipping market [9] Aviation - In October 2025, civil aviation transported approximately 68 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and cargo/mail transport reached 917,000 tons, up 13.3% [58] - The overall passenger load factor for major airlines was 86.88%, showing a slight increase from the previous month [62] Road and Rail - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, national freight logistics operated smoothly, with rail freight reaching 81.8 million tons, a 0.17% increase week-on-week [14] - In October 2025, road freight volume was 3.706 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.08% [64] Supply Chain Logistics - The logistics landscape is evolving, with companies like Shenzhen International expected to benefit from the transformation of logistics parks, providing performance elasticity [15] - The industry is witnessing a slowdown in competition, with companies like Debang and Aneng Logistics showing significant profit improvements due to strategic transformations [15]

Real Estate - The real estate sector has seen a decline of 0.2% this week, with new home transactions in 42 key cities totaling 1.54 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 38.7% [2] - The government has launched a plan to develop smart cities, aiming to establish over 50 fully digital transformation cities by the end of 2027 [2][10] - Various local policies are being implemented, such as Shenzhen's support for converting idle non-residential properties into affordable rental housing [2][10] Transportation - The express delivery sector is experiencing strong demand, with the National Postal Bureau emphasizing the need to combat "involution" competition [14][25] - Shentong has completed the acquisition of Danbird Logistics, which is expected to enhance its market share and service capabilities [15][25] - The shipping industry is benefiting from improved Sino-US trade relations, with expectations of increased demand for Panamax bulk carriers [16] Pharmaceuticals - Haitai New Light reported a significant revenue increase of 40.47% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong demand for medical endoscopes and optical products [29][30] - The company has a backlog of orders worth approximately 300 million yuan from US clients, indicating robust market demand [30] - The gross profit margin has steadily improved, reaching 66.55%, supported by the transition of production capacity to Thailand to mitigate tariff risks [31] Technology - Audiwei has achieved a revenue growth of 12% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with plans for H-share financing to enhance overseas expansion [33][34] - The company is benefiting from the upgrade of intelligent driving systems, which is increasing demand for its ultrasonic sensors [34][35] - Parallel Technology has reported a 69% year-on-year revenue increase, driven by its collaboration with Alibaba Cloud to promote domestic computing power and AI technology [37][38]

Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The Shanghai export container freight index has decreased, with the SCFI composite index down 3.6% week-on-week to 1495 points, while the BCTI index increased by 4.2% to 644 points [1][5] - The U.S. soybean market is returning to China, with expectations of purchasing at least 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans in the last two months of 2025, potentially boosting demand for Panamax bulk carriers [4][5] - The logistics sector is experiencing a resilient demand for e-commerce express delivery, with a focus on reducing "involution" competition, which is expected to enhance service quality and profitability [2][11] Group 2: Company Developments - Shentong has completed the acquisition of Danbird Logistics, which is expected to enhance its market share and service capabilities in the domestic express delivery sector [3] - The logistics landscape is shifting towards a dual network model of "franchise + direct operation," leveraging Danbird's warehousing and distribution capabilities [3][11] - The recent extension of visa-free policies for certain countries is anticipated to boost inbound tourism, positively impacting airlines and related sectors [7][8] Group 3: Shipping and Freight Rates - The BDI index for bulk carriers has increased by 1.3% to 1992 points, indicating a positive trend in the bulk shipping market [6] - The newbuilding price index has decreased slightly, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the shipbuilding market amid fluctuating demand [6][13] - The oil tanker market is expected to benefit from OPEC+ production increases and potential interest rate cuts, enhancing the outlook for companies in this sector [12]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share transportation index has underperformed the market since early 2025, primarily due to a pullback in infrastructure-related assets, with Hong Kong stocks outperforming A-shares. The outlook for 2026 is positive for certain sectors, including logistics and cyclical opportunities in aviation and shipping [1]. Group 1: Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a slowdown in growth due to high base effects, with a projected growth rate of around 10% in 2026 after a strong performance in 2025 [2][3]. - The franchise model in express delivery is expected to show strong profitability growth in 2026, driven by low base profits per shipment and regulatory measures to stabilize pricing [3]. - The direct express delivery segment is anticipated to recover, benefiting from improved demand dynamics [4]. Group 2: Non-Express Logistics - The logistics sector has shown mixed performance, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap ones. The focus for 2026 will likely be on individual stock performance amid uncertain external conditions [5]. Group 3: Road and Rail - The highway and railway sectors have become more attractive after a pullback, with the highway index underperforming major indices by 34.7 and 14.2 percentage points since June 2025 [6]. Group 4: Shipping - Structural opportunities are present in the shipping sector, particularly for smaller container ships and oil tankers, due to an aging global fleet and supply-demand imbalances [7][8]. - Geopolitical factors continue to influence the shipping market, with potential impacts from trade structure changes and sanctions affecting oil production [9]. Group 5: Aviation - The aviation industry is expected to see a supply-demand balance shift in 2026, with passenger demand growth supported by a rebound in business travel and limited aircraft availability due to ongoing production constraints [10]. - External factors such as low oil prices and currency fluctuations may enhance airline profitability in 2026 [10]. Group 6: Airports - The airport sector is projected to benefit from passenger recovery, but the impact of new capacity and the performance of non-aeronautical revenue streams, particularly duty-free sales, remains uncertain [11].

Group 1: Core Views - The A-share transportation index has increased by 1% since early 2025, underperforming the market, primarily due to a pullback in infrastructure-related assets such as highways, railways, and ports [2] - For 2026, the focus is on three areas: 1) Rebound in pullback assets; 2) Growth opportunities in express logistics, particularly in response to anti-involution and technological penetration; 3) Structural opportunities in cycles, such as the supply-demand reversal in aviation and the demand for medium-sized container ships and VLCCs in shipping [2][3] Group 2: Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to test the results and sustainability of anti-involution, with direct express delivery potentially seeing a recovery. The growth rate for express delivery volume is projected to slow to around 10% in 2026, following a high base [4][5] - In the first nine months of 2025, express delivery volume grew by 17.2% year-on-year, driven by new consumption scenarios like live e-commerce and demand from central and western regions. However, growth rates have slowed since the third quarter [4] - The competitive landscape is influenced by market, regulatory, and platform factors, with regulatory changes being a key variable in 2025. The effectiveness of anti-involution measures is being observed, and the profitability of each segment in the express delivery chain needs to be maintained [4][5] Group 3: Road and Rail - Since June 2025, the highway index has underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the China Securities Dividend Index by 34.7 and 14.2 percentage points, respectively. However, the sector is now considered to have value for allocation after the pullback [8] Group 4: Shipping - The shipping sector presents structural market opportunities, particularly for small container ships and VLCCs, with ongoing geopolitical influences needing to be monitored. The average age of the global fleet indicates a supply tightness for smaller container ships [9][10] - The demand for compliant VLCCs is expected to rise due to OPEC's production increases, and geopolitical factors have continuously impacted the shipping market over the past five years [10] Group 5: Aviation - The supply-demand structure in the aviation industry is expected to gradually transition to balance or even a supply shortage, with ticket prices likely to increase. The annualized supply growth is projected at about 3%, while demand growth is expected to exceed 5% from 2026 onwards [11] - The industry is experiencing strong demand for private travel, and business travel is rebounding, providing further support for aviation demand growth. Engine issues may limit the growth of available aircraft in the coming years [11] Group 6: Airports - The operating leverage of airports is expected to gradually manifest as passenger traffic recovers, but the commercial logic of the airport sector remains to be observed. The growth in passenger volume is anticipated to return to single-digit normalization, with international routes showing relatively high growth [12] - The performance of non-aeronautical businesses at airports is expected to benefit from increased passenger traffic, but the stability of per capita spending, especially in duty-free shopping, remains uncertain [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery sector is showing resilience in demand, with a "de-involution" trend leading to price increases, which is expected to enhance corporate profitability. Long-term positive competition opportunities are anticipated in the e-commerce express delivery market [14] - The shipping sector is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in the oil transportation market anticipated in Q4 2025 [14] - The shipbuilding sector is in the early stages of a green renewal cycle, with demand driven by shipping market recovery and green updates. The shipbuilding market is expected to see improved activity as various constraints ease [14] - The aviation sector is projected to see Q3 performance as a signal for a long-term market upturn, with stable demand growth and cost improvements expected [14] - The supply chain logistics sector is expected to see performance elasticity from the transformation of logistics parks in South China, with a focus on high dividends and value reassessment [15] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The "Tongda" companies reported Q3 2025 performance with improved single-ticket profits, reflecting the impact of price increases. YTO, Shentong, and Yunda's revenues were 18.27 billion, 13.55 billion, and 12.66 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 8.73%, 13.62%, and 3.29% [5] - YTO's business volume reached 7.721 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.0%, while Shentong and Yunda's volumes were 6.515 billion and 6.417 billion pieces, with year-on-year growth of 10.7% and 6.6% [5] Shipping - VLCC TCE rates surged to $125,000/day, a 10-year high, driven by tightening capacity and increasing demand [7] - The SCFI index rose by 10.5% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in container shipping rates [8] - The BDTI index increased by 8.47% week-on-week, reflecting rising oil tanker rates [9] Aviation - Global passenger demand grew by 3.6% in September 2025, with a load factor of 83.4% [10] - China National Airlines plans to purchase up to 10 A350F freighters, with a total value of approximately $4.65 billion [11] Road and Rail - National logistics operations were stable from October 20 to 26, with rail freight at 79.224 million tons, a 1.37% decrease [12] - Sichuan Chengyu reported Q3 2025 revenue of 1.96 billion yuan, a 1.52% year-on-year decline, but net profit increased by 8.96% [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the performance of COSCO Shipping Holdings and Xiamen Xiangyu exceeded expectations, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the transportation sector due to institutional underweight positions [2]. - The shipping segment shows resilience, with COSCO's Q3 performance slightly above expectations, and tanker stock performance aligning with freight rate trends. The report anticipates an upward revision in global tanker profitability forecasts [2]. - The aviation sector is experiencing sustained growth in demand, with domestic passenger transport reaching 210 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. Major airlines are expected to see significant improvements in profitability [2]. - The express delivery sector is under pressure, but companies like SF Express are showing resilience through strategic investments and market expansion, with expectations for margin improvement in Q4 and next year [2]. - The report emphasizes the recovery in railway passenger and freight volumes, with recommendations for specific railway and highway companies based on performance metrics [2]. Summary by Sections Shipping - COSCO Shipping's Q3 net profit reached CNY 95.33 billion, a 63.20% increase from Q2, while operating cash flow was CNY 142.05 billion, up 32.57% [4][6]. - Recommendations include COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy, with a focus on the tanker segment due to favorable freight rates [2]. Aviation - Domestic airlines achieved a passenger volume of 210 million, with a seat occupancy rate exceeding 84% for three consecutive months, indicating strong recovery [2]. - China Eastern Airlines showed the most significant year-on-year improvement in profitability [2]. Express Delivery - SF Express maintained high growth rates despite margin pressures, with a focus on strategic pricing and market expansion [2]. - The report notes initial signs of profit recovery in the express delivery sector due to price increases in core regions [2]. Rail and Highway - The report highlights a growth in railway passenger and freight volumes, with specific recommendations for companies like Daqin Railway and Zhejiang Huhang Highway [2]. - The highway segment is also showing positive trends, with several companies reporting significant increases in net profit and cash flow [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [4][10][12]. Core Views - The transportation sector is experiencing a recovery in passenger and freight volumes, driven by the resumption of domestic and international travel, as well as a rebound in logistics demand [8][12]. - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand, which is expected to further enhance the performance of airlines and logistics companies [12][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - From October 20 to October 25, 2025, the transportation sector recorded a cumulative increase of +0.72%, ranking 24th among 31 SW primary industries, while the CSI 300 index rose by +3.24% [16][18]. - Sub-sectors within transportation showed varied performance, with public transport (+4.81%) and warehousing logistics (+2.88%) leading the gains, while shipping experienced a decline of -1.28% [18][19]. Aviation and Airports - In September 2025, major listed airlines in China showed significant recovery in domestic Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) compared to 2019, with China Southern Airlines at 116.42% and Spring Airlines at 176.49% [27]. - Major airports also reported recovery in passenger throughput, with Baiyun Airport and Shanghai Airport achieving recovery rates of 115.74% and 125.22% for domestic passengers, respectively [35]. Shipping and Ports - As of October 24, 2025, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was at 1403.46 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of +7.11% but a year-on-year decrease of -35.78% [39]. - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) reported a value of 992.74 points, with a week-on-week increase of +2.02% and a year-on-year decrease of -27.35% [39]. Road and Rail - In September 2025, railway passenger volume reached 341 million, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of -0.24%, while freight volume increased by +4.24% to 4.45 million tons [64]. - Road transport saw a significant decline in passenger volume, down -43.82% year-on-year, while freight volume increased by +5.20% to 38.91 million tons [70]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector achieved a revenue of 127.37 billion yuan in September 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of +7.20%, with business volume rising by +12.70% to 16.88 billion parcels [12].