1.监管与交易层面：政策降温 + 资金踩踏 交易所风险管控：广期所 12 月 23 日上调铂钯涨跌停板与保证金，CME 于 12 月 29 日跟进上调金属期 货保证金，直接压缩杠杆资金规模，引发多头主动减仓。 3.资金行为：获利了结主导短期走势 ETF 与期货多头抛售：铂金价格年内涨幅一度超 50%，机构与 ETF 投资人在高位集中获利了结，进一 步加剧下跌动量。 投机资金退潮：前期资金炒作 "估值修复"，推动价格脱离基本面，一旦预期逆转，投机盘快速出逃引 发连锁反应。。 期货公司观点 内外盘时间错位与价差收敛：圣诞假期导致外盘休市、内盘独自波动，内外价差一度接近 20%，套利 资金入场卖空内盘、买入外盘，加速内盘价格回调。 多头集中止损：前期价格暴涨吸引大量投机资金，关键支撑位破位后触发程序化交易与 "踩踏式抛 售"，放大跌幅。 2.基本面：需求疲软 + 供需预期反转 工业需求走弱：汽车催化器是铂金最大需求端(占比 40%+)，2025 年三季度全球燃油车销量同比下滑 5%，新能源汽车替代加速，单台催化器用铂量因技术升级持续下降，需求增量不及预期。 远期供需再平衡：WPIC 预测 2026 年铂金市场或出现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share transportation index has underperformed the market since early 2025, primarily due to a pullback in infrastructure-related assets, with Hong Kong stocks outperforming A-shares. The outlook for 2026 is positive for certain sectors, including logistics and cyclical opportunities in aviation and shipping [1]. Group 1: Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a slowdown in growth due to high base effects, with a projected growth rate of around 10% in 2026 after a strong performance in 2025 [2][3]. - The franchise model in express delivery is expected to show strong profitability growth in 2026, driven by low base profits per shipment and regulatory measures to stabilize pricing [3]. - The direct express delivery segment is anticipated to recover, benefiting from improved demand dynamics [4]. Group 2: Non-Express Logistics - The logistics sector has shown mixed performance, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap ones. The focus for 2026 will likely be on individual stock performance amid uncertain external conditions [5]. Group 3: Road and Rail - The highway and railway sectors have become more attractive after a pullback, with the highway index underperforming major indices by 34.7 and 14.2 percentage points since June 2025 [6]. Group 4: Shipping - Structural opportunities are present in the shipping sector, particularly for smaller container ships and oil tankers, due to an aging global fleet and supply-demand imbalances [7][8]. - Geopolitical factors continue to influence the shipping market, with potential impacts from trade structure changes and sanctions affecting oil production [9]. Group 5: Aviation - The aviation industry is expected to see a supply-demand balance shift in 2026, with passenger demand growth supported by a rebound in business travel and limited aircraft availability due to ongoing production constraints [10]. - External factors such as low oil prices and currency fluctuations may enhance airline profitability in 2026 [10]. Group 6: Airports - The airport sector is projected to benefit from passenger recovery, but the impact of new capacity and the performance of non-aeronautical revenue streams, particularly duty-free sales, remains uncertain [11].

Group 1: Core Views - The A-share transportation index has increased by 1% since early 2025, underperforming the market, primarily due to a pullback in infrastructure-related assets such as highways, railways, and ports [2] - For 2026, the focus is on three areas: 1) Rebound in pullback assets; 2) Growth opportunities in express logistics, particularly in response to anti-involution and technological penetration; 3) Structural opportunities in cycles, such as the supply-demand reversal in aviation and the demand for medium-sized container ships and VLCCs in shipping [2][3] Group 2: Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to test the results and sustainability of anti-involution, with direct express delivery potentially seeing a recovery. The growth rate for express delivery volume is projected to slow to around 10% in 2026, following a high base [4][5] - In the first nine months of 2025, express delivery volume grew by 17.2% year-on-year, driven by new consumption scenarios like live e-commerce and demand from central and western regions. However, growth rates have slowed since the third quarter [4] - The competitive landscape is influenced by market, regulatory, and platform factors, with regulatory changes being a key variable in 2025. The effectiveness of anti-involution measures is being observed, and the profitability of each segment in the express delivery chain needs to be maintained [4][5] Group 3: Road and Rail - Since June 2025, the highway index has underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the China Securities Dividend Index by 34.7 and 14.2 percentage points, respectively. However, the sector is now considered to have value for allocation after the pullback [8] Group 4: Shipping - The shipping sector presents structural market opportunities, particularly for small container ships and VLCCs, with ongoing geopolitical influences needing to be monitored. The average age of the global fleet indicates a supply tightness for smaller container ships [9][10] - The demand for compliant VLCCs is expected to rise due to OPEC's production increases, and geopolitical factors have continuously impacted the shipping market over the past five years [10] Group 5: Aviation - The supply-demand structure in the aviation industry is expected to gradually transition to balance or even a supply shortage, with ticket prices likely to increase. The annualized supply growth is projected at about 3%, while demand growth is expected to exceed 5% from 2026 onwards [11] - The industry is experiencing strong demand for private travel, and business travel is rebounding, providing further support for aviation demand growth. Engine issues may limit the growth of available aircraft in the coming years [11] Group 6: Airports - The operating leverage of airports is expected to gradually manifest as passenger traffic recovers, but the commercial logic of the airport sector remains to be observed. The growth in passenger volume is anticipated to return to single-digit normalization, with international routes showing relatively high growth [12] - The performance of non-aeronautical businesses at airports is expected to benefit from increased passenger traffic, but the stability of per capita spending, especially in duty-free shopping, remains uncertain [12]

Core Insights - The recent surge in storage chip prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including increased demand from AI and data centers, and a shift in production focus by major manufacturers towards high-end chips, resulting in reduced supply of traditional storage chips [3] - Since September, storage chip prices have been steadily rising, with significant increases observed in the fourth quarter, as downstream manufacturers rush to stock up despite full production capacity [3] - The current market sees price increases of 60% to 80% for most storage chips, with some popular models experiencing price hikes of up to 100%, indicating a strong upward trend in pricing [3] Industry Dynamics - The storage chip industry is experiencing a cyclical nature, with previous periods of low prices leading to production cuts and inventory adjustments, which have now resulted in a reversal of supply and demand dynamics [3] - The broad applications of storage chips across various devices, including smartphones, computers, and smart devices, suggest a growing demand and significant market potential moving forward [3] - The prevailing sentiment in the industry is that the current strong pricing trend is likely to continue for some time due to the combination of high demand and limited supply [3] Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with technological advantages and stable supply capabilities rather than chasing short-term price fluctuations, as the key to long-term investment success lies in identifying firms that can meet future demand after the current stockpiling phase [4]

Group 1: Lithium Battery Sector - The demand for lithium batteries is strong, with a cumulative installation of 184.3 GWh from January to April 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 52.8% [1] - Upstream material prices are at historical lows, and profitability is also low, which may accelerate the clearing process, with continued strong demand expected in the second half of 2025 [1] - Solid-state battery technology is anticipated to lead a new round of material system updates due to its significant advantages in safety and energy density, with applications expected in consumer batteries, eVTOL, and new energy vehicles [1] Group 2: AIDC and Energy Storage - In Q1 2025, the combined capital expenditure of four major overseas cloud vendors reached approximately $71.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 62%, while domestic companies Alibaba and Tencent's capital expenditure totaled approximately 52.1 billion yuan, up 112% [2] - The energy storage sector is expected to see steady growth in installed capacity domestically, with high-margin demand in the large-scale energy storage markets in Europe and the U.S., and emerging markets in the Middle East and Africa entering a performance realization phase [2] - The industry is expected to benefit from high growth in demand, technological iterations, and increased concentration [2] Group 3: Wind Power and Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector is entering a deep adjustment phase in supply and demand, with a new market structure expected to emerge in 2025 due to policy and market competition [3] - Attention is recommended on the supply-side adjustment progress of heavy asset and high-energy consumption segments such as silicon materials and photovoltaic glass, as well as the performance indicators of new technologies like N-type BC routes and new metallization schemes [3] - In the wind power sector, the domestic offshore wind industry is entering a peak construction season, which is expected to enhance industry prosperity, while onshore wind profitability is anticipated to recover as turbine bidding prices stabilize [3] Group 4: Power Grid Equipment - As of the end of March 2025, cumulative investment in the State Grid's power grid is expected to grow by 27.7% year-on-year, with ongoing high-intensity construction of ultra-high voltage projects [4] - Major projects such as the Southeast Tibet to Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao, Shaanxi-Henan, Inner Mongolia to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Southern Xinjiang to Sichuan-Chongqing, and Kubuqi to Shanghai ultra-high voltage projects are expected to accelerate in 2025, with 4-5 ultra-high voltage direct current lines anticipated to be approved for construction [4] - The increasing reliance on intelligent regulation capabilities in distribution networks is expected to lead to a peak period of intelligent transformation in distribution networks [4]

Core Viewpoint - The city of Xinyang in Henan has become the first in China to fully implement a "current housing sales" policy, which requires that properties must be completed and pass inspection before they can be sold, effectively overturning the traditional pre-sale model [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The new policy mandates that newly sold land must be sold as completed properties, meaning developers can only sell homes after they are built and inspected [3]. - Existing projects that have already started construction can still sell under the old pre-sale rules, creating a transitional phase for the market [3]. - This shift aims to reduce risks for homebuyers, as it minimizes the chances of unfinished projects and fraud [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Xinyang's real estate market is under significant pressure, with new home sales area expected to decline by 7.8% in 2024, and real estate investment plummeting by 16.2% [4]. - The city faces a severe population issue, with a net outflow of 2.79 million people, leading to a situation where one in three residents is leaving for work elsewhere [4]. - The number of newborns has drastically decreased from 89,000 in 2019 to just 37,000 in 2023, indicating a demographic crisis [4]. Group 3: National Trends - Over 30 provinces and cities across China have begun experimenting with current housing sales since late 2022, indicating a growing trend [6]. - The proportion of current housing sales nationwide has surged from 10% in 2020 to 32% by February 2025, marking a ten-year high [7]. - However, the transition to widespread current housing sales faces challenges, particularly due to the financial strain on developers, as construction timelines extend from two years to four or five years [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The shift from a "seller's market" to a "buyer's market" is evident, with an increasing inventory of unsold homes leading to longer sales cycles [9]. - In Xinyang, the inventory turnover period is projected to be 20 months, with a significant increase in the number of second-hand homes listed for sale [9]. - The current housing sales model may lead to price differentiation, with premium properties in major cities seeing price increases, while weaker markets may experience accelerated market clearing [10].