Core Viewpoint - The A-share transportation index has underperformed the market since early 2025, primarily due to a pullback in infrastructure-related assets, with Hong Kong stocks outperforming A-shares. The outlook for 2026 is positive for certain sectors, including logistics and cyclical opportunities in aviation and shipping [1]. Group 1: Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a slowdown in growth due to high base effects, with a projected growth rate of around 10% in 2026 after a strong performance in 2025 [2][3]. - The franchise model in express delivery is expected to show strong profitability growth in 2026, driven by low base profits per shipment and regulatory measures to stabilize pricing [3]. - The direct express delivery segment is anticipated to recover, benefiting from improved demand dynamics [4]. Group 2: Non-Express Logistics - The logistics sector has shown mixed performance, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap ones. The focus for 2026 will likely be on individual stock performance amid uncertain external conditions [5]. Group 3: Road and Rail - The highway and railway sectors have become more attractive after a pullback, with the highway index underperforming major indices by 34.7 and 14.2 percentage points since June 2025 [6]. Group 4: Shipping - Structural opportunities are present in the shipping sector, particularly for smaller container ships and oil tankers, due to an aging global fleet and supply-demand imbalances [7][8]. - Geopolitical factors continue to influence the shipping market, with potential impacts from trade structure changes and sanctions affecting oil production [9]. Group 5: Aviation - The aviation industry is expected to see a supply-demand balance shift in 2026, with passenger demand growth supported by a rebound in business travel and limited aircraft availability due to ongoing production constraints [10]. - External factors such as low oil prices and currency fluctuations may enhance airline profitability in 2026 [10]. Group 6: Airports - The airport sector is projected to benefit from passenger recovery, but the impact of new capacity and the performance of non-aeronautical revenue streams, particularly duty-free sales, remains uncertain [11].

公路铁路： 2025年以来高速公路指数跑输大盘和红利指数，主要受市场风格偏好影响，并非基本面原因。展望2026年，我们认为公路铁路已 经具备配置性价比（股息率纵向和横向比较均处于平均值偏上）。 航运： 看好结构性市场机会，持续关注地缘影响。集运看好小型集装箱船的供给紧张机会；油运看好OPEC增产带来对合规VLCC大船市场的 需求机会。此外，过去五年地缘因素持续影响航运市场，往前看仍需关注由此可能引发的贸易或运输结构变化。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 2025年初至今A股申万交运指数上涨1%，跑输市场，主要受公路铁路港口等基础设施红利类资产回调影响，港股走势强于A股。展望2026年， 我们看好：1）回调到位的红利类资产；2）快递物流成长性机会：关注快递反内卷、科技对物流的渗透；3）周期的结构性机会，如航空的供 需反转弹性，集运的中小船型，油运VLCC。 快递：加盟制快递检验反内卷成果和持续性，直营快递快运或迎来修复。 我们预计2026年快递业务量在高基数下同比增速或放缓至10%，前 低后高。市场、监管和平台三重因素重新平衡，2026年将成为检验反内卷效果和持续性的一年。非快递物流：明年内外部环境不 ...

Core Insights - The recent surge in storage chip prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including increased demand from AI and data centers, and a shift in production focus by major manufacturers towards high-end chips, resulting in reduced supply of traditional storage chips [3] - Since September, storage chip prices have been steadily rising, with significant increases observed in the fourth quarter, as downstream manufacturers rush to stock up despite full production capacity [3] - The current market sees price increases of 60% to 80% for most storage chips, with some popular models experiencing price hikes of up to 100%, indicating a strong upward trend in pricing [3] Industry Dynamics - The storage chip industry is experiencing a cyclical nature, with previous periods of low prices leading to production cuts and inventory adjustments, which have now resulted in a reversal of supply and demand dynamics [3] - The broad applications of storage chips across various devices, including smartphones, computers, and smart devices, suggest a growing demand and significant market potential moving forward [3] - The prevailing sentiment in the industry is that the current strong pricing trend is likely to continue for some time due to the combination of high demand and limited supply [3] Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with technological advantages and stable supply capabilities rather than chasing short-term price fluctuations, as the key to long-term investment success lies in identifying firms that can meet future demand after the current stockpiling phase [4]

Group 1: Lithium Battery Sector - The demand for lithium batteries is strong, with a cumulative installation of 184.3 GWh from January to April 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 52.8% [1] - Upstream material prices are at historical lows, and profitability is also low, which may accelerate the clearing process, with continued strong demand expected in the second half of 2025 [1] - Solid-state battery technology is anticipated to lead a new round of material system updates due to its significant advantages in safety and energy density, with applications expected in consumer batteries, eVTOL, and new energy vehicles [1] Group 2: AIDC and Energy Storage - In Q1 2025, the combined capital expenditure of four major overseas cloud vendors reached approximately $71.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 62%, while domestic companies Alibaba and Tencent's capital expenditure totaled approximately 52.1 billion yuan, up 112% [2] - The energy storage sector is expected to see steady growth in installed capacity domestically, with high-margin demand in the large-scale energy storage markets in Europe and the U.S., and emerging markets in the Middle East and Africa entering a performance realization phase [2] - The industry is expected to benefit from high growth in demand, technological iterations, and increased concentration [2] Group 3: Wind Power and Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector is entering a deep adjustment phase in supply and demand, with a new market structure expected to emerge in 2025 due to policy and market competition [3] - Attention is recommended on the supply-side adjustment progress of heavy asset and high-energy consumption segments such as silicon materials and photovoltaic glass, as well as the performance indicators of new technologies like N-type BC routes and new metallization schemes [3] - In the wind power sector, the domestic offshore wind industry is entering a peak construction season, which is expected to enhance industry prosperity, while onshore wind profitability is anticipated to recover as turbine bidding prices stabilize [3] Group 4: Power Grid Equipment - As of the end of March 2025, cumulative investment in the State Grid's power grid is expected to grow by 27.7% year-on-year, with ongoing high-intensity construction of ultra-high voltage projects [4] - Major projects such as the Southeast Tibet to Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao, Shaanxi-Henan, Inner Mongolia to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Southern Xinjiang to Sichuan-Chongqing, and Kubuqi to Shanghai ultra-high voltage projects are expected to accelerate in 2025, with 4-5 ultra-high voltage direct current lines anticipated to be approved for construction [4] - The increasing reliance on intelligent regulation capabilities in distribution networks is expected to lead to a peak period of intelligent transformation in distribution networks [4]

Core Viewpoint - The city of Xinyang in Henan has become the first in China to fully implement a "current housing sales" policy, which requires that properties must be completed and pass inspection before they can be sold, effectively overturning the traditional pre-sale model [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The new policy mandates that newly sold land must be sold as completed properties, meaning developers can only sell homes after they are built and inspected [3]. - Existing projects that have already started construction can still sell under the old pre-sale rules, creating a transitional phase for the market [3]. - This shift aims to reduce risks for homebuyers, as it minimizes the chances of unfinished projects and fraud [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Xinyang's real estate market is under significant pressure, with new home sales area expected to decline by 7.8% in 2024, and real estate investment plummeting by 16.2% [4]. - The city faces a severe population issue, with a net outflow of 2.79 million people, leading to a situation where one in three residents is leaving for work elsewhere [4]. - The number of newborns has drastically decreased from 89,000 in 2019 to just 37,000 in 2023, indicating a demographic crisis [4]. Group 3: National Trends - Over 30 provinces and cities across China have begun experimenting with current housing sales since late 2022, indicating a growing trend [6]. - The proportion of current housing sales nationwide has surged from 10% in 2020 to 32% by February 2025, marking a ten-year high [7]. - However, the transition to widespread current housing sales faces challenges, particularly due to the financial strain on developers, as construction timelines extend from two years to four or five years [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The shift from a "seller's market" to a "buyer's market" is evident, with an increasing inventory of unsold homes leading to longer sales cycles [9]. - In Xinyang, the inventory turnover period is projected to be 20 months, with a significant increase in the number of second-hand homes listed for sale [9]. - The current housing sales model may lead to price differentiation, with premium properties in major cities seeing price increases, while weaker markets may experience accelerated market clearing [10].