研究报告 Research Report 27 Feb 2026 中国必需消费 China (Overseas) Staples 中国必选消费品 2 月成本报告：环比平稳，同比仍处低位 February CGCI: Month-on-month flat, year-on-year still low [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 市盈率 P/E | | 股票名称 | 评级 目标价 | PE(2025E) | PE(2026E) | | 百威亚太 | Neutral 7.90 | 27 | 24 | | 海底捞 | Outperform 18.22 | 18 | 17 | | 华润啤酒 | Outperform 36.00 | n.a. | n.a. | | 康师傅 | Outperform 17.74 | 18 | 16 | | 中国飞鹤 | Outperform 7.00 | 8 | 7 | | 优然牧业 | Outperform 5.50 | n. ...

证券日报网讯 2月26日，乐惠国际在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，2026年世界杯为公司提供了良好 的外部环境，公司始终密切关注全球啤酒市场机会，争取更多业务机会。具体经营情况以公司披露的定 期报告和临时公告为准。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that Zhujiang Beer achieved a total operating revenue of 5.878 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 903 million yuan, up 11.42% year-on-year [6] - Budweiser APAC reported an operating revenue of 5.764 billion USD for the fiscal year 2025, with an organic year-on-year decline of 6.1% and a normalized EBITDA of 1.588 billion USD, down 9.8% year-on-year [6] - The report emphasizes the ongoing structural upgrades in the beer industry, with Zhujiang Beer focusing on high-end products and innovative marketing strategies to enhance market share [6] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - The industry has shown relative returns of 2.49% over the past month, but a decline of 8.51% over the past three months and 22.95% over the past year [3] Company Performance - Zhujiang Beer has optimized its product structure, with high-end beer sales increasing by 14.16% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [6] - Budweiser APAC's sales in China experienced an organic year-on-year decline of 3.9% in Q4 2025, with overall performance in China falling short of industry averages [6] Market Trends - Several beer companies are launching special edition products for the Year of the Horse, with Budweiser introducing limited edition cans symbolizing various New Year blessings [6] - The report suggests that the focus on new year-themed products and youthful packaging is becoming standard practice among leading beer companies [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends paying attention to A-share listed companies such as Qingdao Beer, Chongqing Beer, Yanjing Beer, and Zhujiang Beer, as well as Hong Kong-listed companies like China Resources Beer and Budweiser APAC [6]

处于重整状态的泰山啤酒，近期"悄然"发布一则共益债投资人招募的公告。 2月26日，南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组记者从全国企业破产重整案件信息网中注意到，山东泰山 啤酒股份有限公司（即泰山啤酒）在农历新年之前"悄然"发布了一则共益债投资人招募的公告，希望通 过这一渠道融资3000万元（年化借款利率不超过7%）。 相关消息传出后，泰山啤酒方面随即回应表示，该公司生产经营一切正常，公司总经理张开利还表示， 破产重整是泰山啤酒在政府支持和法律保护下，为解决历史遗留问题、谋求更长远发展而必经的一 次"大手术"，"进入重整程序后将暂时摆脱债务困扰"。 业界分析认为，本次共益债投资人招募，对于资不抵债、进入司法重整程序的泰山啤酒而言，是进入市 场化纾困的关键阶段，不过后续重整仍面临多重难题。例如3000万元共益债务能否保障生产运营；谁会 参与泰山啤酒重整，重整到底需要多长时间，以及如何平衡原股东及投资方等利益，都需要较长时间进 行解决。 另据公开数据，2025年泰山啤酒实现销量8万吨，营收约5亿元，与2024年几乎持平。 对于泰山啤酒未来走势，南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组记者将持续关注。 （文章来源：南方都市报） ...

近日，珠江啤酒发布2025年度业绩快报。披露公司去年实现啤酒销量146.24万吨，同比增长1.58%；实现营业总收入 58.78亿元，同比增长2.56%；利润总额、归属净利润、扣非归属净利润分别为10.57亿元、9.03亿元和8.32亿元，分别 同比增长10.98%、11.42%和9.25%。 公告还提到，报告期内，公司产品结构优化升级，市场开拓稳中有进，渠道建设创新发力，品牌声量持续放大，管理 效能不断提升，持续推动企业高质量发展走深走实。 （企业公告） ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the craft beer industry, highlighting its structural prosperity and growth potential [3]. Core Insights - The craft beer sector in China is experiencing significant growth, with a projected market size increase from 125 billion yuan in 2019 to 632 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 38.3%, which is substantially higher than the 2.6% growth of industrial beer [3][10]. - The report emphasizes that craft beer represents a high-end direction in the industry, catering to the diverse and personalized consumption trends in the Chinese market [3][11]. - The company, Jinxing Beer, is positioned as a leading player in the craft beer segment, ranking as the third largest craft beer producer in China with a market share of 14.6% as of Q3 2025 [3][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Craft Beer Industry Overview - The craft beer market in China is projected to grow from 632 billion yuan in 2024 to 1,821 billion yuan by 2029, maintaining a CAGR of 23.6% [3][10]. - By 2024, craft beer is expected to account for 9% of the total beer market by retail value, increasing to 20% by 2029 [3][10]. 2. Jinxing Beer: A New Force in Craft Beer - Jinxing Beer is the eighth largest beer company in China and the largest flavored craft beer producer, focusing on innovation within the craft segment [3][31]. - The company has seen rapid revenue growth, with projected revenues of 3.6 billion yuan in 2023, 7.3 billion yuan in 2024, and 11.1 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 105% and 191% respectively [3][39]. 3. Revenue Growth and Profitability - The company's revenue from craft beer reached 8.7 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, accounting for 78% of total revenue, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 2,332% [3][39]. - The net profit margin has improved significantly, with net profit margins of 3.4%, 17.2%, and 27.5% for 2023, 2024, and Q1-Q3 2025 respectively [3][48]. 4. Competitive Landscape - The craft beer market is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape, with a CR5 of only 22%, indicating significant opportunities for growth and market entry [3][18]. - Jinxing Beer leads the flavored craft beer segment with a market share of 15% [3][18]. 5. Product and Market Strategy - Jinxing Beer has developed a diverse product matrix, including innovative craft beers that incorporate traditional Chinese elements, such as tea flavors [3][31]. - The company has adopted a dual-channel strategy, enhancing both online and offline sales, with significant growth in online sales following the launch of its craft beer products [3][40]. 6. Financial Analysis - The report highlights a strong improvement in gross margins, driven by a shift in product mix towards higher-margin craft beers, with gross margins increasing from 27.3% in 2023 to 47.0% in Q1-Q3 2025 [3][48]. - The company plans to utilize raised funds for production capacity expansion, brand enhancement, and product innovation to sustain growth [3][59].

智通财经APP获悉，大华继显发布研报称，相较去年两个黄金周表现，今年新春长假(2月15日至23日)期 间消费数据反映国内消费市场增长动能向好，认为可视作消费市道整体出现复苏的初步迹象，其中旅游 文化及餐饮表现备受关注。 基于新春长假期间消费及出行数据，大华继显调整部分股份的目标价，将海底捞的目标价上调至19.7港 元，李宁(02331)上调至21.6港元，贵州茅台(600519.SH)目标价上调至1,682元人民币，五粮液 (000858.SZ)目标价轻微调升至115.1元人民币。 该行看好出现初步复苏、涉及中国结构性消费增长动力、获潜在政策支持及存在海外增长机遇的行业， 包括餐饮、服务及体验式消费等，首选安踏体育(02020)、华润啤酒(00291)、中国中免(601888.SH)、海 底捞(06862)、美的集团(000333.SZ)及百胜中国(09987)，全数给予"买入"评级，并对国内消费行业维 持"增持"评级。 ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,765.72, up 175 points or 0.66%[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose to 4,147.23, an increase of 0.72%[2] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.29%, closing at 14,475.87[2] Economic Indicators - Hong Kong's inflation rate slowed to 1.1% in January, down from 1.4% in December[6] - The basic inflation rate, excluding one-off government relief measures, was 1%[6] - The year-on-year price increases for various categories included electricity, gas, and water at 3%[6] Corporate Earnings - Hong Kong's San Miguel Brewery reported a profit of HKD 76.12 million for the year, compared to a loss of HKD 20.10 million the previous year[11] - New World Development's rental income from office spaces is expected to decline at a slower rate, with occupancy rates stabilizing at 81.6%[12] - Neway Data's net profit for the six months ending December rose by 9.72% to HKD 531 million[13] Government Fiscal Policy - The government plans to increase tax allowances for dependents, estimating a reduction in tax revenue by HKD 5 billion this fiscal year[7] - The Financial Secretary proposed transferring HKD 150 billion from the Exchange Fund to support infrastructure projects[8] - The Exchange Fund recorded an investment income of over HKD 330 billion in 2025, with total reserves exceeding HKD 780 billion[8] Industry Developments - Steel mills in northern China are required to reduce production by at least 30% to improve air quality during the upcoming National People's Congress[9]

智通财经APP获悉，国联民生证券发布研报称，需求疲软+产能快速投放，供大于求，大众品价格2021- 2025年持续下跌，价、利、估值受损。2025年部分大众品价格或已经触底，预计2026年价格开启向上周 期，假设需求改善，则价格向上弹性和持续性更强。重点推荐餐饮供应链和乳业产业链。餐饮"价"逻辑 已经开始演绎，有望推动价、利、估值同步提升，同时有望跟随服务消费受益。肉牛周期+原奶周期， 乳业产业链确定性强。 国联民生证券主要观点如下： 复盘本轮大众品经营周期：供大于求，价、利齐跌 需求疲软+产能快速投放，供大于求，大众品价格2021-2025年持续下跌，价、利、估值受损。供给： 2017-2022年是大众品资本开支快速扩张时期，2017-2022年资本开支复合增速14%;经历2年左右建设周 期，2020-2025年是产能投放大年，供给大幅扩张。需求：2021年之后需求较疲软，近两年餐饮需求增 速从2020年之前的双位数增速回落至低个位数。价格：2021年开始持续下跌，大众品龙头企业出厂均价 高点至今普遍回落。 1、速冻：量略增(仍有渗透率提升逻辑)、价大幅下降。需求：餐饮大盘疲软，但速冻板块仍有渗透率 提升逻 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,765.72, up 175 points or 0.66%, after fluctuating throughout the day, with a high of 26,870 and a low of 26,632 [2][3] - The total market turnover was 236.765 billion, with a net outflow of 4.057 billion from northbound trading [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Hong Kong's inflation rate slowed to 1.1% in January, down from 1.4% in December, with the basic inflation rate at 1% [6] - The year-on-year price increases in January were noted in categories such as electricity, gas, and water (3%), miscellaneous services (2.9%), and transportation (1.3%) [6] Group 3: Company News - Hong Kong Sheng Li Beer reported a profit of 76.119 million, with a revenue increase of 3.68% to 737 million [11] - Crown Property Trust's CEO indicated a narrowing decline in office rental income, with a stable occupancy rate of 81.6% and a positive outlook for retail due to increased consumer spending [12] - Neway Group reported a 9.72% increase in shareholder profit to 531 million, attributed to lower borrowing costs and growth in data center revenue [13] - Sinopharm's expected profit for the year is projected to be between 1.3 billion to 1.4 billion, reflecting a growth of approximately 80.1% to 93.9% [14]