Core Insights - The report highlights a shift in investment strategy for non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) in the second quarter, moving from a focus on rate bonds to a significant increase in credit bonds and asset-backed securities (ABS) due to a record high in wealth management scale reaching 31.5 trillion yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In the second quarter, funding conditions are similar to the same period last year, but market conditions are characterized by limited curve space and a lack of cost-effectiveness, leading to cautious institutional sentiment [1]. - The current asset scarcity is more structural, with the overall degree of asset scarcity being significantly lower than the same period last year [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The strategy recommended is to adopt a "last third of the first half" approach, focusing on selecting high-yield individual bonds [1][2]. - There is a notable preference for short-duration credit bonds among investors, with a clear trend of differentiation in market evolution [2][4]. Group 3: Fund Flows - After a peak in May, the scale of money market fund repurchase has stabilized, and net purchases of cash bonds have surged since June, indicating that NBFIs have begun to increase their allocations [2][4]. - Since the end of March, NBFIs have become the main source of incremental funds in the market, coinciding with a rapid decline in certificate of deposit yields and significant growth in bank absorption of non-bank funds [1].

Market Overview - The successful outcome of the China-US-Switzerland talks on May 12 significantly boosted global risk appetite, leading to a general rise in global stock indices[5] - In May, the 20-year US Treasury auction was cold, with the final yield at 5.047%, raising concerns about US fiscal pressure[6] Global Fund Flows - In May, global equity funds saw a significant outflow from emerging markets, totaling $8.3 billion, while developed markets experienced an inflow of $30.5 billion[13] - Developed European equity funds received inflows of $24.7 billion, while Chinese equity funds faced a substantial outflow of $10.9 billion[25] China Market Dynamics - In May, China's fixed income market saw a notable inflow of $4.9 billion, while the equity market experienced a significant outflow[15] - The inflow ratio for Chinese fixed income funds was 5.6%, while the equity market saw a -1.1% outflow ratio[14] Sector Performance - In the US, there was a marked outflow from the technology sector, while industrials, telecommunications, and infrastructure saw inflows[41] - The inflow into US corporate bonds reached $39.4 billion in May, reversing the previous month's outflow of $23.2 billion[27] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected economic downturns in the US, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and higher-than-expected tariffs from the Trump administration[36]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Changes - The easing of US-China tariff tensions has led to a rapid steepening of the bond market, with limited short-term adjustment space expected [1][2] - Long-term bond yields are unlikely to fully recover from previous declines, with resistance levels identified at 1.70% for 10-year bonds and 1.95% for 30-year bonds [2][3] - The current monetary policy environment is expected to remain accommodative, with a significant amount of liquidity in the market, enhancing the attractiveness of long bonds [2][3] Group 2: Mid-term Market Outlook - The bond yield curve is anticipated to steepen during the recovery period, with short-term rates benefiting from the current liquidity conditions [3] - The market's sensitivity to trade tensions has decreased, suggesting that future fluctuations in trade policy may have limited impact on risk appetite [3][4] - Investment strategies should focus on mid to short-duration bonds, credit bonds, and leveraged strategies as the market adjusts [3][4] Group 3: Long-term Market Perspective - The narrative surrounding long-term bond yields is shifting towards a more confident outlook, with expectations for lower yield limits being revised upwards [4] - The previous strategy of "buying every dip" may reach its limits, indicating a need for a more cautious approach in bond market investments [4] - Historical trends suggest a transition towards a strategy focused on bond selection rather than timing, favoring mid to short-duration bonds with higher carry [4]

Core Viewpoints - The necessity to enhance domestic demand policies to counteract the potential impacts of slowing external demand, thereby solidifying the recovery of domestic demand since the first quarter [1][4] - The market consensus on a clear mainline for policy response is still awaited, indicating that the timing for a more aggressive market approach is not yet ripe [1][7] Economic Performance - China's GDP growth in the first quarter exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% [2][4] - Retail sales grew by 4.6%, and fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 4.2% [2] - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.3%, and per capita disposable income rose to 12,179 yuan, reflecting a nominal increase of 5.5% [2] Trade and External Factors - The trade surplus contributed 2.2 percentage points to the nominal GDP growth in the first quarter, up from 1.9 percentage points in the previous quarter [4] - A decline in container bookings to the U.S. by 67% in the first week of April indicates potential headwinds for exports in the second quarter [4] Investment Strategies - Recommendations to maintain a defensive investment strategy in light of ongoing global uncertainties, with a focus on safe assets such as gold and government bonds [5][21] - Emphasis on sectors benefiting from domestic demand and those that have been undervalued due to market sentiment, particularly in the context of "China Special Valuation" and "Science and Technology Valuation" [6][10] Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile, with a need for further observation of policy impacts before a clear bullish trend can be established [7][19] - The potential for a gradual decrease in funding rates as macroeconomic stimulus measures are anticipated to be implemented [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the companies discussed, including recommendations for specific stocks such as Eft-U and Changsheng Bearings [9][10][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing competition between GPGPU and ASIC in the chip industry, noting that while ASICs excel in low-precision tasks with better power efficiency, they still struggle to match GPGPU performance in high-precision applications [22]. - The emergence of AI applications is driving demand for AI inference, with major companies investing in self-developed AI chips to meet this growing need [22]. - The report discusses the recent advancements in brain-machine interface technology, emphasizing the establishment of pricing guidelines by the National Healthcare Security Administration to support the clinical application of these technologies [7][8][24]. Summary by Sections Macro Strategy - Recent U.S. economic data presents mixed signals, with non-farm employment slightly below expectations, alleviating some recession fears [12]. - The "tight fiscal" approach from the Trump administration is impacting market sentiment, leading to declines in U.S. stocks and the dollar [12][17]. Fixed Income - The report discusses the upcoming issuance of Haohan Convertible Bonds, with an expected listing price range of 118.73 to 132.27 yuan [20]. Industry Analysis - The competition between GPGPU and ASIC is analyzed, with GPGPU maintaining a strong market position due to superior interconnect capabilities [22]. - Major companies are increasingly investing in self-developed AI chips, with significant R&D expenditures required to cover initial costs [22]. - The report identifies key players in the AI chip manufacturing space, including Broadcom and Marvell, highlighting their competitive advantages [22]. Medical and Biological Industry - The successful implementation of brain-machine interface technology is noted, with new pricing projects established to facilitate its clinical use [7][8][24]. - The report suggests potential investment opportunities in companies involved in brain-machine interface technologies, both listed and unlisted [24].