每日经济新闻 华鑫证券指出，随着PPI降幅收窄到转正，行业风格将从科技成长逐步向上游资源、中游制造及下 游消费扩散。在MSCI中国A股ESG领域，重点关注三大方向：一是周期反转行业，包括景气改善的能 源金属、风电设备、工程机械等，以及具备涨价预期的新能源、有色、化工等；二是科技成长领域，如 景气上行的AI算力、储能等，以及产业催化的商业航天、机器人等；三是消费修复板块，包括政策预 期较强的食饮、社服、美护等。反内卷政策带动部分行业供需格局改善，叠加海外需求韧性，ESG相关 行业的盈利修复趋势有望延续。 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com MSCIESGETF（159621）跟踪的是MSCI中国A股人民币ESG通用指数（MSC278），该指数基于母 指数构建，从中国A股市场中筛选出具有稳健ESG表现及积极改善趋势的上市公司证券作为指数样本， 并通过调整成分股权重，重点纳入 ...

天风证券策略首席分析师、政策研究院院长吴开达表示，2025年A股市场表现积极，不断攻坚背后，离不开中国经 济实力、科技实力、综合国力的提升。"十五五"规划将夯实基础、全面发力，在2026年续写经济快速发展和社会 长期稳定两大奇迹新篇章，加快金融强国建设，资本市场也有望走出"攻坚牛"。 在主题投资机会方面，他认为，应该聚焦前沿技术突破与产业变革方向，诸如AIDC（人工智能数据中心）、具身 智能、脑机接口、可控核聚变、量子计算。 在政策建议方面，吴开达认为，要健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功能，可从提升灵活性与保密性、上市标准 多元化、投资者结构优化、构建科技金融生态以及深化沪港融合与国际协同等方面着手推进。（胡飞军） 在行业板块配置方面，吴开达给出三方面建议：一是2025年三季报指引及行业数据显示景气度与出口强相关，重 点关注境外业务高占比行业，包括电子、家电、汽车、电力设备等；二是随着经济周期回暖，通胀作为滞后指标 回升，周期股在牛市中后期易获得增量资金青睐；三是关注潜在底部反转的行业，诸如食饮、农业、社服、医药 等有较高赔率。 ...

把握消费增长主线机会 20251230 摘要 2025 年社零增速放缓，线上零售额同比下降 0.1%，线下零售额同比增 长 0.5%，但 1-11 月网上商品和服务零售额同比增长约 9%，高于线下， 反映下半年消费引擎失速。 2023-2025 年各类消费品表现分化，粮油食品稳定，饮料增速放缓， 烟酒负增长，日用品加速。可选消费中，金珠宝、化妆品 2024 年负增 长后 2025 年反弹，体育用品持续良好，地产后周期品类受房地产市场 影响大。 2025 年 11 月天猫、京东、抖音平台 GMV 同比负增长，部分原因是双 十一大促提前透支。1-11 月传统电商大盘同比增长接近 6%，与 GDP 增速相近，下半年电商环境遇冷，大家电、商用设备、家装建材等品类 同比负增长。 2025 年电商市场中，交通骑行线上渗透率提升显著，购户工具、户外 服饰、医药用品和中医保养等品类也实现了约 20%的线上增速，精神悦 己和自我投资类、品质升级和效率革新类，以及健康生活与新型刚需类 产品表现优异。 Q&A 2025 年国内消费市场的总体表现如何？ 2025 年国内消费市场总体表现较为疲软。从 11 月的数据来看，单月社会消费 ...

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 华创证券指出，红利资产在交运公用、金融、能源化工、食饮、家电、地产、金属、出版等多个行业展 现出配置价值。在交运公用领域，公路、港口、铁路等长久期资产具备防御稳健性，其中公路行业推荐 具备成长潜力的优质高速资产；港口行业海外布局及分红比例提升推升估值弹性；铁路行业受益改革红 利，黄金线路资产具备价格弹性潜力。金融板块中，银行股息率高且资产质量安全边际充足，中长期投 资价值持续。能源化工行业方面，油气作为能源安全基石，长期现金流有保障，资本开支趋势性下修； 煤炭行业反内卷政策超预期，供给约束下行业盈利稳定性增强。金属行业中电解铝企业进入现金流修复 阶段，供需紧平衡支撑铝价，行业吨铝利润有望维持高位。出版行业教育出版主业稳健，稳定高分红叠 加AI教育等新方向布局，配置价值突出。整体来看，红利 ...

Market Trends - The market has experienced a continuous decline in trading volume, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges recording a trading volume of 1.55 trillion yuan, a decrease of 121 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [4] - There is a noticeable shift towards defensive strategies, with small-cap growth stocks losing momentum while large-cap value stocks are performing better [5] Index Performance - As of today, the CSI A500 index has increased by 0.38% this week, while the CSI 2000 index has decreased by 1.55% [6] - The top-performing sectors this week include non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, home appliances, petrochemicals, transportation, and coal, with high dividend sectors making up a significant portion [6] Sector Analysis - Consumer sectors such as home appliances, food and beverage, textiles and apparel, and social services have a higher probability of success from December to January [7] - Sectors like petrochemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, coal, building materials, and large financial institutions show a significant increase in success probability in January [8] Interest Rate Outlook - There is a high probability of interest rate cuts in the U.S. in December, which may lead to similar actions domestically [9] - Major state-owned banks have collectively removed five-year large-denomination time deposits from their platforms, with three-year products' interest rates dropping to between 1.5% and 1.75% [10] Investment Strategy - It is currently advisable to increase the allocation of high-dividend ETFs in investment portfolios [11] - A method for selecting high-dividend products involves using the "Dividend Yield Calculator" in the "Index Direct Pass" mini-program to view dividend yields and products [12][13] - The current dividend yield for the CSI Dividend Index is reported at 4.3% [16] Portfolio Recommendations - While high dividend rates are favorable at year-end, it is recommended to maintain a balanced portfolio that includes technology and dividend stocks, with a current emphasis on dividends and large-cap stocks [18]

Group 1: Mechanical Industry Insights - The mechanical industry update will be presented by the chief analyst, Cui Wenjuan, on December 1st at 15:00 [1][26]. Group 2: New Energy and AI Series - The fourth session of the New Energy + AI series will be led by Liu Qiang, the assistant dean and chief analyst of the electric new energy sector, on December 3rd at 15:30 [2][26]. Group 3: Consumer Channel Review - A review of the performance and changes in consumer channels for 2025 will be conducted by Guo Mengjie, the chief analyst for food and beverage, on December 3rd at 16:00 [3][26]. Group 4: Agricultural Sector Insights - Recent insights on the agricultural sector will be shared by Cheng Xiaodong, the chief analyst for agriculture, on December 3rd at 20:00 [4][26]. Group 5: Humanoid Robots Discussion - A discussion on the peak moment for humanoid robots will be presented by Liu Hongchen, the chief analyst for the automotive sector, on December 4th at 15:30 [5][26].

Macro - The monetary policy maintains a tone of "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" and "keeping financial total growth reasonable" [3] - The third quarter report emphasizes the combination of "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments," indicating a subtle shift in policy focus [3] - The central bank addresses concerns about "tightening monetary policy," "weak financing," and "ineffective interest rates," suggesting a broader focus beyond short-term counter-cyclical support [3] - The pressure to achieve annual economic targets is manageable, reducing the urgency for short-term monetary easing, with a focus on implementing previous policies and preparing for cross-cyclical adjustments [3] - There remains room for interest rate cuts next year if economic growth pressures increase, especially considering low inflation and historically high real interest rates [3] Strategy - The technology manufacturing sector continues to show high prosperity, while real estate and durable goods demand remain weak [5] - Global AI infrastructure investment is driving the prosperity of the electronic semiconductor and power facility sectors, with storage demand rebounding and battery sales significantly increasing [5] - Real estate construction demand is entering a low season, with a widening decline in housing sales and a marginal decrease in demand for construction resources [5] - Upstream resource prices are mixed, with international metal prices declining while coal prices surge due to heating demand [5] Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales have seen a significant decline of 41.4% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing drops of 45.2%, 38.2%, and 43.9% respectively [9] - Durable goods consumption, particularly passenger car retail, has decreased by 0.8% year-on-year in October, influenced by changes in subsidy policies [9] - Agricultural prices show a mixed trend, with live pig prices down 3.1% month-on-month, while domestic staple grain prices continue to rise [9] - Service consumption indicators, such as tourism and movie box office revenues, indicate a slight decline in activity [9] Technology & Manufacturing - The electronic industry continues to thrive, with explosive growth in storage demand driven by AI, and semiconductor sales increasing by 15% year-on-year in September [10] - Construction demand remains weak, with seasonal factors leading to a decline in building material demand [10] - The lithium battery industry is experiencing heightened prosperity, with significant price increases for lithium hexafluorophosphate [10] - Coal prices have reached new highs due to tightened supply and increased heating demand, while international metal prices have declined [10] Energy Storage - The introduction of a capacity pricing mechanism is expected to enhance the economic viability of energy storage across more provinces [15] - Inner Mongolia's compensation for energy storage discharge in 2026 is set at 0.28 yuan/kWh, which, despite being lower than the previous year's rate, will stimulate demand [16] - The bidding volume for energy storage in October 2025 shows significant year-on-year growth, indicating a robust market demand [16]

Core Insights - The report indicates that active funds have significantly increased their holdings in A-shares, particularly in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, while reducing exposure to consumer and banking sectors [1][2][4] - The total market value of active equity funds and stock ETFs reached a record high of 7.23 trillion yuan, reflecting a 21.7% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - The active equity fund stock position rose to 85.6%, with a concentration ratio (CR20) increasing by 6.3% [1] Fund Allocation - Active funds have notably increased their allocation to the TMT sector, particularly in electronics and communications, while reducing exposure to consumer goods and financial sectors [2] - The electronics sector's allocation reached 25.5%, surpassing the previous high of 20.3% during the 2021 bull market [1][4] - The report highlights a significant increase in allocations to the semiconductor, battery, and gaming industries, driven by strong AI capital expenditures [2] Hong Kong Stock Market - The allocation to Hong Kong stocks has slightly decreased, with a total heavy position of 381.8 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease in the proportion of active fund investments to 18.7% [3] - Active funds have increased their investments in sectors such as trade, pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals, while reducing exposure to social services and light industry [3] Market Trends - The report suggests that the fund issuance may soon reach a turning point, with historical data indicating that fund recovery and index breakthroughs are critical for accelerating new fund launches [4] - As of late October 2025, the proportion of actively managed equity funds with positive returns over various time frames has reached high levels, indicating a potential positive feedback loop for fund issuance and market performance [4]

Group 1: Industry Research - The core view is that the basic chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in profitability due to macroeconomic improvements and supply-side policy advancements, with a focus on sectors like phosphate chemicals, potash fertilizers, and pesticides [1] - New materials driven by AI and robotics are anticipated to maintain strong growth momentum, suggesting investment in leading companies with strong cost control and complete industrial chains [1] - Recommendations include focusing on leading enterprises in semiconductor materials, OLED materials, PEEK, and AI materials that possess technological barriers and customer validation advantages [1] Group 2: Company Research - Nanjing Bank reported a revenue of 41.9 billion with an 8.8% year-on-year growth and a net profit of 18 billion, reflecting strong performance and resilience [2] - Ningbo Bank's revenue and net profit growth rates were 8.3% and 8.4% respectively, indicating a stable expansion despite external economic challenges [3] - Wuxi Bank achieved a revenue of 3.77 billion with a 3.9% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1.83 billion, showcasing steady growth in non-interest income [4] - China Ping An's net profit increased by 11.5% year-on-year, with new business value growing by 46.2%, indicating a positive outlook for future growth [5] - New Yangfeng's new fertilizer products showed strong growth, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.686, 1.890, and 2.148 billion respectively [7] - Wanhua Chemical's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 12.8, 16.0, and 18.9 billion, supported by steady production and sales growth in polyurethane and new materials [8] - Jianghua Micro's revenue reached 910 million with a 10.92% year-on-year increase, although net profit decreased by 8.66% due to price declines [9] - Runfeng's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.141, 1.338, and 1.626 billion, reflecting a positive outlook in the agricultural chemical sector [10] - Shanghai Petrochemical's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 were adjusted downwards due to declining refining product sales, but future growth is expected from new material projects [11] - Jiuli Special Materials, a leader in industrial stainless steel pipes, maintains net profit forecasts of 1.624, 1.876, and 2.160 billion for 2025-2027 [12] - Hualing Steel's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 4.012, 4.373, and 4.760 billion, indicating a focus on high-end product structure [13] - Shengxin Lithium's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are -0.5, 0.17, and 0.37 billion, with improvements expected from lithium price increases [14] - Puyang Refractories reported a revenue of 4.18 billion with a 4.3% year-on-year increase, but net profit decreased by 22.8% [15] - Kingsoft Office's revenue grew by 25% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 35%, indicating strong performance driven by AI [16] - Nobon Co. achieved a revenue of 2.02 billion with a 29.7% year-on-year increase, and net profit growth of 38.3% [17] - Betain's revenue decreased by 13.8% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 34.5%, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts [18] - Furuida's revenue decreased by 7.3% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 17.2%, but future growth is expected from brand performance [19] - Baoxin Bird's revenue decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, with a significant drop in net profit, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts [20] - Weikang Medical's revenue increased by 30.1% year-on-year, with net profit growth of 32.4%, indicating strong performance across sectors [21] - Nanwei Medical's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 0.652, 0.765, and 0.927 billion, reflecting a clear growth path [22] - Songcheng Performing Arts reported a revenue decline of 8.98% year-on-year, with a net profit decrease of 25.22%, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts [23] - Xueda Education's revenue increased by 11.2% year-on-year, but net profit dropped significantly due to cost pressures [24] - Qianwei Central Kitchen's revenue reached 1.378 billion with a 1% year-on-year growth, but net profit declined by 34.06% [25] - Qingdao Beer reported a revenue of 8.88 billion with a slight decline, but net profit increased by 1.6%, indicating stable profitability [26] - Bairun Co. achieved a revenue increase of 3% year-on-year, but net profit declined due to increased investment costs [27] - Gujia Home's revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 2.04, 2.27, and 2.54 billion, reflecting strong growth momentum [28] - Sun Paper's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 3.28, 3.84, and 4.58 billion, indicating long-term growth potential [29]

Group 1 - The report highlights that in Q3 2025, the issuance of active equity funds reached a total of 561 billion, marking a significant increase of 53% compared to the previous quarter, while the redemption of existing funds surged to 215.5 billion, up from 107.1 billion in Q2 2025 [3][11][10] - The report indicates a shift in investment style, with increased allocations to TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and manufacturing sectors, while reducing exposure to consumer and financial real estate sectors. The TMT sector's share rose from 28.8% in Q2 2025 to 39.8% in Q3 2025 [4][21][10] - The report notes that the concentration of holdings in the top three sectors increased to 47.6%, up by 8.1 percentage points from Q2 2025, and the top five sectors accounted for 62.9%, an increase of 10.3 percentage points [38][10] Group 2 - The report identifies the top five industries where public funds increased their holdings in Q3 2025: electronics (up 6.6 percentage points), communication (up 3.9 percentage points), new energy (up 2.7 percentage points), non-ferrous metals (up 1.3 percentage points), and media (up 0.5 percentage points) [5][33][34] - Conversely, the report highlights the top five industries where public funds reduced their holdings: banking (down 3.1 percentage points), food and beverage (down 1.8 percentage points), home appliances (down 1.5 percentage points), military industry (down 1.4 percentage points), and automotive (down 1.4 percentage points) [5][34][33] - The report emphasizes that the top 20 holdings in Q3 2025 saw a significant turnover, with 14 stocks replaced compared to Q2 2025, indicating a dynamic shift in investment focus [41][38][10]