证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 投资策略 3 月策略观点与金股推荐：布局"涨价"扩散，博弈政策催化 一、3 月市场观点：布局"涨价"扩散，博弈政策催化 二月以来，多重因素正在推动资金定价向"涨价"条线倾斜。其一，叙事层面，AI 科技革命的叙事定价逻辑开始向实物资产"外溢"；其二，供需层面，在逆全球化 的大背景下，地缘变数的增多进一步带动了各国的资源战略调整，致使生产端实 际供需偏紧的局面可能将在更多商品中陆续显现；其三，价格数据层面，无论是海 外还是国内，通胀数据呈现同步上行，产业链中的涨价环节也有所扩散；其四，资 金轮动视角下，尽管 AI 产业的长期趋势无虞，但融资扩张与资本回报的矛盾越久， 资金定价的分歧也将更易放大。每一次科技条线的颠簸，都难免引发资金分流，而 在非 AI 需求尚未确认转强之前，兼顾供给约束基础和需求改善预期的"涨价"条 线显然比其他方向更具吸引力，也更容易在资金轮动中受益。 大势层面，中期趋势向好，市场有望震荡再向上。中期维度，分子与分母共振向好 的期待没有改变。盈利层面，供需双向发力的政策路径明确，价格端修复的趋势延 续，上游向 ...

Group 1: March Market Insights - The report emphasizes a shift towards "price increase" strategies driven by multiple factors, including the narrative of the AI technology revolution spilling over into physical assets, tightening supply-demand dynamics due to geopolitical changes, and rising inflation data both domestically and internationally [1][6][8] - The mid-term outlook remains positive, with expectations of a market rebound supported by dual forces of supply and demand, alongside continued macro liquidity easing [2][8] - The report suggests focusing on sectors that exhibit both supply constraints and demand improvement, such as chemicals, refining, steel, and non-ferrous metals, as well as areas driven by sustained AI demand like storage and PCB [2][8] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (600188.SH) is highlighted for its performance elasticity, with significant increases in coal production and sales expected to enhance profitability [3][9] - Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH) is noted for its strategic shift towards a technology-driven model and overseas resource expansion, which is anticipated to unlock new profit ceilings [3][13] - Dongyangguang (600673.SH) is recognized for its integration of AIDC and advancements in liquid cooling solutions, positioning it as a leader in AI infrastructure [3][17][20] - Whirlpool (600983.SH) is expected to benefit from the support of major shareholders and a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [3][21] - Ugreen Technology (301606.SZ) is projected to see significant growth driven by its NAS products and expansion in overseas markets [3][23] - Yanjing Beer (000729.SZ) is anticipated to benefit from a recovery in the restaurant sector and a focus on high-margin products [3][26] - Fuling Power (600452.SH) is positioned for growth through its dual business model and collaboration with State Grid, enhancing its operational efficiency [3][28]

Core Insights - The article discusses how young consumers are redefining the Chinese New Year experience, moving away from traditional family gatherings to more personalized and diverse celebrations [2][3] - It highlights the shift in consumer behavior from functional purchases to emotional and aesthetic expressions during the festive season, emphasizing the need for brands to adapt to these changes [2][3] Consumer Behavior Changes - "Gift-giving" during the New Year is evolving from standardized purchases to personalized emotional expressions, with consumers seeking gifts that convey emotional connections [3][4] - The consumption scenarios are expanding beyond traditional festive moments to include everyday activities, necessitating brands to engage with consumers in various contexts [3][4] - Consumer demographics are becoming more segmented, with distinct groups identified based on preferences and characteristics, requiring brands to tailor their communication strategies accordingly [3][4] Brand Strategies - Brands are encouraged to understand consumer emotions more deeply and create products that resonate with these feelings, enhancing their connection with consumers [4][5] - The example of Budweiser illustrates how brands can leverage emotional themes in their marketing, focusing on small joys in life rather than grand aspirations [5][6] - A strategic approach to product offerings is suggested, incorporating a mix of popular products, new innovations, and gift boxes to enhance brand presence during the festive season [6][7] Content and Engagement - High-quality content is essential for brands to attract and retain consumer attention, especially during the emotionally charged New Year period [7][8] - Utilizing various innovative content formats, such as short dramas and celebrity collaborations, can significantly enhance brand visibility and consumer engagement [8][9] - Integrating online and offline marketing efforts is crucial for driving sales, particularly in the food and beverage sector, where in-person experiences still play a significant role [8][9] Conclusion - Douyin (TikTok) is positioned as a key platform for capturing New Year consumption trends, providing brands with opportunities to connect emotionally with consumers [9] - The article emphasizes the importance of leveraging insights and innovative tools to transform festive traffic into sustainable business growth and brand value [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how young consumers are redefining the celebration of the Spring Festival, moving from traditional family gatherings to personalized experiences that blend emotional and aesthetic elements into their celebrations [3][4]. Group 1: Changes in Consumer Demand - The concept of "gift-giving" during the Spring Festival is shifting from standardized purchases to personalized emotional expressions, with consumers seeking gifts that convey emotional connections [5]. - Consumption scenarios are expanding beyond traditional festive moments to include everyday activities, such as enjoying tea or health supplements after workouts, indicating a trend towards "daily integration" of Spring Festival consumption [5][6]. - Consumer demographics are becoming more segmented, with distinct groups identified based on preferences and characteristics, necessitating a deeper understanding of their unique needs for effective communication [6]. Group 2: Brand Strategies for New Year Flavor - Brands are encouraged to adopt a more nuanced understanding of consumers, focusing on product features and audience needs to strengthen brand presence and emotional connections [6]. - Suggestions for brands include creating ceremonial gift boxes to enhance the Spring Festival experience, focusing on sensory experiences, and engaging with trending content on platforms like Douyin [6][10]. - The case of Budweiser illustrates the importance of emotional resonance in product marketing, with their campaign emphasizing "small happiness" and integrating emotional themes into product design and consumer interaction [9][10]. Group 3: Leveraging Content and Innovation - High-quality content is essential for brands to engage consumers during the emotionally charged Spring Festival period, with a focus on creating "mind-blowing" content that resonates with users' real-life experiences [13]. - Brands can utilize various innovative formats, such as short dramas and celebrity marketing, to enhance brand exposure and emotional connection with consumers [14]. - Integrating online and offline marketing strategies is crucial for driving sales, particularly in the food and beverage sector, by linking online engagement with offline purchasing behaviors [14][16].

Core Insights - The report highlights the booming development of popular industries on the Xiaohongshu platform and global AI governance, indicating a synergistic relationship that drives consumption and technological upgrades [1][5]. Fashion Industry - The fashion sector shows a significant increase in brand engagement, with a 56% rise in average monthly brand placements compared to the previous year [9]. - Vintage fashion topics have garnered over 500 million views, indicating a strong consumer interest in retro styles [9]. - The trend of "softcore aesthetics" and "Asian retro" is emerging, with related content achieving high engagement levels, reflecting a shift towards comfort and attitude in fashion choices [12]. Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty industry maintains a robust performance, with a 76% increase in average monthly likes on beauty-related posts [16]. - The focus has shifted from facial care to comprehensive body care, with significant growth in interest for scalp and hand care products [16]. - The rise of sensitive skin as a key topic, with engagement levels for related content increasing by over 123%, indicates a growing consumer demand for specialized skincare solutions [19]. Parenting and Childcare - The parenting sector shows a notable increase in engagement, with a 54% rise in likes for parenting-related content [21]. - Topics such as "slow parenting" and "relaxed parenting" have gained significant traction, reflecting a shift in parenting philosophies among new parents [24]. - The concept of "resilient parenting" is emerging, focusing on children's physical and emotional development through outdoor activities and sports [24]. Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector has seen a remarkable 80% increase in the number of posts, with average monthly interactions exceeding 300 million [27]. - Trends such as "herbal health" and "easy cooking" are gaining popularity, with related topics achieving over 460 million views [30]. - The demand for innovative recipes and health-focused ingredients is driving new product development in the food industry [29].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the industry style is shifting from technology growth to upstream resources, midstream manufacturing, and downstream consumption as the PPI decline narrows and turns positive [1] - In the MSCI China A-share ESG sector, three main directions are highlighted: cyclical recovery industries such as energy metals, wind power equipment, and engineering machinery; technology growth areas like AI computing power and energy storage; and consumer recovery sectors including food and beverage, social services, and personal care [1] - The anti-involution policy is improving the supply-demand dynamics in certain industries, combined with resilient overseas demand, indicating a continued trend of profit recovery in ESG-related industries [1] Group 2 - The MSCI ESG ETF (159621) tracks the MSCI China A-share Renminbi ESG General Index (MSC278), which selects listed companies with robust ESG performance and positive improvement trends from the Chinese A-share market [1] - The index employs an industry-balanced distribution strategy, leaning towards core asset allocation, aiming to reflect the overall market performance of high-quality Chinese A-share companies that adhere to ESG investment principles [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to perform positively in 2025, driven by the enhancement of China's economic strength, technological capabilities, and overall national power [1] Industry and Company Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" will solidify the foundation and fully exert efforts, aiming to continue the rapid economic development and long-term social stability by 2026, which may lead to a "bull market" in the capital market [1] - In terms of sector allocation, three recommendations are provided: 1. Focus on industries with high overseas business ratios, such as electronics, home appliances, automobiles, and power equipment, as the third quarter report of 2025 indicates a strong correlation between economic prosperity and exports [1] 2. As the economic cycle recovers and inflation rises as a lagging indicator, cyclical stocks are likely to attract incremental funds in the later stages of a bull market [1] 3. Pay attention to industries with potential bottom reversals, such as food and beverage, agriculture, social services, and pharmaceuticals, which have high odds of recovery [1] Thematic Investment Opportunities - Emphasis should be placed on breakthroughs in frontier technologies and industrial transformations, including AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Centers), embodied intelligence, brain-computer interfaces, controllable nuclear fusion, and quantum computing [1] Policy Recommendations - To enhance the capital market's function of coordinating investment and financing, suggestions include improving flexibility and confidentiality, diversifying listing standards, optimizing investor structure, building a technology-finance ecosystem, and deepening integration with Hong Kong and international collaboration [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The retail market in 2025 is experiencing a slowdown, with online retail sales declining by 0.1% year-on-year, while offline retail sales grew by 0.5% [1][4] - From January to November 2025, online retail sales of goods and services increased by approximately 9%, outperforming offline sales, indicating a loss of momentum in consumer spending in the second half of the year [1][4] Key Insights on Consumer Goods - Consumer goods performance from 2023 to 2025 shows divergence: staple foods remain stable, beverage growth is slowing, tobacco and alcohol are experiencing negative growth, while daily necessities are accelerating [1][5] - In discretionary spending, jewelry and cosmetics are expected to rebound in 2025 after a negative growth in 2024, while sports goods continue to perform well [1][5] - The real estate market significantly impacts post-cycle consumer categories, with automobiles shifting from positive to negative growth [5] E-commerce Performance - Major platforms like Tmall, JD, and Douyin reported negative year-on-year GMV growth in November 2025, partly due to the early Double Eleven promotions [1][6] - Traditional e-commerce growth from January to November 2025 is close to 6%, aligning with GDP growth, but the second half of the year faced a cooling environment [7] Future Outlook - Despite a challenging overall environment, significant differentiation exists among categories, with some trends reversing, indicating structural opportunities [8] - Consumer confidence remains low, necessitating more policy support and market stimulation to revive activity [8] Notable Growth Categories in E-commerce - In 2025, categories like transportation cycling products saw significant online penetration growth, driven by new brands and demand [9] - Other categories achieving around 20% online growth include household tools, outdoor apparel, and health-related products [9] Price Trends and Sales Performance - From January to November 2025, categories such as digital products, outdoor apparel, home improvement materials, and office supplies saw average price increases exceeding 10% due to new demand drivers [11] - However, categories like clothing accessories, shoes, and office equipment experienced declining online penetration and sales [12] Competitive Landscape - The concentration in certain sectors has increased significantly post-pandemic, with digital products and large home appliances showing the highest concentration growth [13] - Leading brands in the digital appliance sector include Apple, Huawei, and Xiaomi, with Midea and Haier dominating large appliances [14][15] Sector-Specific Insights - The beauty and personal care sector remains stable, with skincare products led by domestic and high-end international brands [16] - The home appliance market is stable, with brands like Xiaomi and Midea performing well, driven by brand effects and innovative products [15] - The snack and grain oil sectors show stable growth among leading companies, while smaller brands are innovating [19] Conclusion - The overall consumer market in 2025 is characterized by a mix of stability in essential goods and volatility in discretionary spending, with e-commerce facing challenges despite pockets of growth in specific categories. The competitive landscape is evolving, with increased concentration in certain sectors and opportunities for innovation among smaller players.

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 华创证券指出，红利资产在交运公用、金融、能源化工、食饮、家电、地产、金属、出版等多个行业展 现出配置价值。在交运公用领域，公路、港口、铁路等长久期资产具备防御稳健性，其中公路行业推荐 具备成长潜力的优质高速资产；港口行业海外布局及分红比例提升推升估值弹性；铁路行业受益改革红 利，黄金线路资产具备价格弹性潜力。金融板块中，银行股息率高且资产质量安全边际充足，中长期投 资价值持续。能源化工行业方面，油气作为能源安全基石，长期现金流有保障，资本开支趋势性下修； 煤炭行业反内卷政策超预期，供给约束下行业盈利稳定性增强。金属行业中电解铝企业进入现金流修复 阶段，供需紧平衡支撑铝价，行业吨铝利润有望维持高位。出版行业教育出版主业稳健，稳定高分红叠 加AI教育等新方向布局，配置价值突出。整体来看，红利 ...

Market Trends - The market has experienced a continuous decline in trading volume, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges recording a trading volume of 1.55 trillion yuan, a decrease of 121 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [4] - There is a noticeable shift towards defensive strategies, with small-cap growth stocks losing momentum while large-cap value stocks are performing better [5] Index Performance - As of today, the CSI A500 index has increased by 0.38% this week, while the CSI 2000 index has decreased by 1.55% [6] - The top-performing sectors this week include non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, home appliances, petrochemicals, transportation, and coal, with high dividend sectors making up a significant portion [6] Sector Analysis - Consumer sectors such as home appliances, food and beverage, textiles and apparel, and social services have a higher probability of success from December to January [7] - Sectors like petrochemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, coal, building materials, and large financial institutions show a significant increase in success probability in January [8] Interest Rate Outlook - There is a high probability of interest rate cuts in the U.S. in December, which may lead to similar actions domestically [9] - Major state-owned banks have collectively removed five-year large-denomination time deposits from their platforms, with three-year products' interest rates dropping to between 1.5% and 1.75% [10] Investment Strategy - It is currently advisable to increase the allocation of high-dividend ETFs in investment portfolios [11] - A method for selecting high-dividend products involves using the "Dividend Yield Calculator" in the "Index Direct Pass" mini-program to view dividend yields and products [12][13] - The current dividend yield for the CSI Dividend Index is reported at 4.3% [16] Portfolio Recommendations - While high dividend rates are favorable at year-end, it is recommended to maintain a balanced portfolio that includes technology and dividend stocks, with a current emphasis on dividends and large-cap stocks [18]