Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the capital market withstood the shock of the disappointing non - farm payroll data, risk appetite quickly recovered, and the macro - logic shifted to interest - rate cut trading. Risk assets generally rose in price. Overseas, the Fed's "independence" was challenged, and the increasing weight of dovish members strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Domestically, the "anti - involution" market emerged again, with July's import and export data exceeding expectations and inflation improving month - on - month. [6] - In the future, the weakening of the US dollar after the non - farm payroll shock is a key macro - factor. Globally, the divergence between sentiment and reality needs to converge, and the pressure of tariffs on the global economy will lead to the re - pricing of risk assets. Domestically, the cooling of overseas sentiment, combined with the economic downward pressure and the failure of policy expectations, will cause the "anti - involution" market to pause, and both the stock and commodity markets will face correction pressure. However, the flexibility of macro - policies may lead to the introduction of unexpected policies. [7] Section Summaries 1. Asset Classes - Overseas, most global major stock markets rose, the VIX index plunged, the BDI index rose continuously, the US dollar index declined, non - US currencies generally benefited, commodity trends were divided, oil prices dropped dragging down the CRB index, while gold and copper rose. Domestically, the "anti - involution" market emerged, July's import and export data exceeded expectations, and inflation improved month - on - month with PPI negative for 34 consecutive months. [6][10] 2. Sector Updates - The domestic bond market rose slightly, with short - term bonds weaker and long - term bonds stronger. The stock market generally rose, with the growth - style stocks rising more significantly than value - style stocks, and the market risk preference increased. The domestic commodity sectors were mixed, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 1.86% weekly, 5 out of 10 commodity sector indices rising and 5 falling. [6][16] 3. Capital Flows - Last week, the overall capital in the commodity futures market flowed in slightly. The energy, coal - coking - steel - ore, grain, oilseeds, agricultural products, and soft commodity sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the non - ferrous and soft commodity sectors had obvious outflows. [19] 4. Product Performance - Most domestic major commodity futures rose last week. The top - rising commodity futures were coking coal, lithium carbonate, and coke, while the top - falling ones were fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt. [23] 5. Volatility Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index decreased significantly, and the volatilities of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index also declined. Most commodity futures sectors saw a decrease in volatility, with the precious metals, soft commodities, chemicals, and non - ferrous sectors experiencing a significant decline, while the agricultural products and grain sectors saw an obvious increase. [29] 6. Macro Logic - Stock Index - Last week, the four major domestic stock indices fluctuated at high levels after rising and then falling. Both growth and value stocks rose, market sentiment improved significantly, stock index valuations increased collectively, and the risk premium ERP was under pressure. [44] 7. Macro Logic - Commodity Price Index - The commodity price index was under pressure and fluctuated, inflation expectations rebounded, and the trends of expectations and reality were intertwined. [46] 8. Stock - Commodity Relationship - Last week, both the stock and commodity markets rose, and the commodity - stock return difference declined slightly. The domestic - priced commodities were more resilient, and the "anti - involution" market continued with the domestic - strong and overseas - weak style of commodities remaining. [54] 9. Macro Logic - US Treasury Bonds - The yield of US Treasury bonds rebounded, with short - term bonds weaker and long - term bonds stronger, the term structure steepened bearishly, the term spread was stable, the real interest rate was under pressure, and the gold price fluctuated upwards. [64] 10. Macro Logic - US Economy - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" showed resilience, the impact of tariffs on the economy was initially obvious, and the 10Y - 3M spread of US Treasury bonds fluctuated around 0. [72] 11. Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectations - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September to 4 - 4.25% is 86.6%, significantly higher than the previous week. There are expectations of further interest - rate cuts in October or December, with a probability of about 40% for 2 - 3 rate cuts within the year. [81] 12. China's Economic Data - In July 2025, China's import and export data both exceeded expectations. The inflation data showed that CPI and PPI improved month - on - month, with PPI negative for 34 consecutive months year - on - year. [101][108] 13. "Anti - Involution" Market - The "anti - involution" market in the domestic commodity futures market may pause due to various factors, but the cooling does not mean a reversal. The essence of this market lies in the understanding of "anti - involution". [7][114] 14. "Involution" Analysis - "Involution" refers to the vicious competition where economic entities invest a lot of resources but do not increase overall revenue. It includes low - price competition, homogeneous competition, and "race - to - the - bottom" in marketing. Local governments also contribute to involution through improper policies. The harm of involution is significant at the macro, meso, and micro levels. [119][121][125] - To combat "involution", it is necessary to coordinate supply and demand sides, combine an effective market with an active government, and strengthen industry self - discipline. [136] 15. This Week's Focus - This week, important events include the RBA's interest - rate decision, OPEC's monthly oil market report, US CPI data, and speeches by Fed officials. [163]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of establishing a systematic course framework for the development of commodity platforms, aiming to provide theoretical guidance and practical advice for spot commodity enterprises [1][2][4] - The current national policies strongly support the development of a multi-layered commodity market system, which is crucial for the high-quality development of the futures and derivatives markets [2][6] - The establishment of a professional think tank is necessary to address the shortage of composite talents in the industry, focusing on targeted and systematic course development for platform construction and operation [3][4] Group 2 - Recent policies have highlighted the support for innovative trading models such as capacity pre-sale and order trading, which are seen as vital for revitalizing the spot trading market [6][8] - The introduction of the "China (Yunnan) Free Trade Zone Regulations" is a proactive response to national policy, encouraging innovative trading practices in the region [6][7] - The capacity pre-sale and order trading models are designed to enhance market stability and predictability, allowing enterprises to lock in orders and production in advance [8][10] Group 3 - Yunnan's agricultural sectors, including fresh-cut flowers, tea, and coffee, have established a robust trading ecosystem, positioning the region as a leader in these industries [9][10] - The dual-track trading model of "online electronic trading + offline distribution center" is being promoted to enhance the export of Yunnan coffee to international markets [9] - The new regulations are expected to create a broader market space for Yunnan's specialty agricultural industries, improving competitiveness and driving industrial upgrades [10]

Core Insights - The energy crisis from last year continues to generate significant wealth for global commodity traders, exemplified by Vitol Group distributing a record $10.6 billion in dividends through stock buybacks to its executives and senior employees [1] Company Summary - Vitol Group has issued a record dividend of $10.6 billion, highlighting the financial success attributed to the ongoing effects of the energy crisis [1]

Core Points - The article emphasizes the acceleration of the implementation of core policies for the Hainan Free Trade Port, with Sanya taking a leading role in the "first project" of the customs closure operation [6][12] - Sanya is focusing on innovation and practical measures to enhance its role as a significant gateway for China's new era of opening up [6][12] Group A: Efficient Promotion of Customs Closure Projects - Sanya is implementing a comprehensive management service model to enhance maritime safety and regulatory efficiency, utilizing technology for real-time monitoring and data sharing [7] - The city is enhancing its customs inspection facilities, including the introduction of smart inspection equipment to streamline the entry and exit processes for tourists and goods [8][9] Group B: Innovative Firsts and Policy Implementation - Sanya has successfully expedited the customs clearance process for imported strawberry seedlings, reducing the time to 1-2 days and increasing survival rates to over 95% [10] - The first tax-exempt domestic sales of value-added meat processing have been completed, showcasing the effective application of Hainan's free trade policies [11] Group C: Expanding Open Development Patterns - Sanya has attracted over 31 billion USD in foreign investment and established 285 enterprises from the "three categories of 500 strong" companies, reflecting its commitment to an outward-oriented economy [13] - The city is actively promoting new types of offshore international trade and has seen the successful launch of various first-time businesses under the free trade port policies [14]

Core Insights - The North Bay (Guangxi) Commodity Trading Platform has achieved a cumulative transaction volume of 87.6 billion RMB and a physical delivery volume of 21.901 million tons as of June 30 this year, with over 400 member companies from China and ASEAN [1][2] - The platform aims to create a closed-loop service system for cross-border settlement in RMB, connecting domestic and international clients [1] - The platform is focused on building a multi-layered commodity trading market system that integrates futures and spot trading, onshore and offshore, and online and offline interactions [1][2] Group 1 - The North Bay (Guangxi) Commodity Trading Platform is a comprehensive third-party supply chain service platform that includes trading, digital supply chain finance, risk management, and cross-border settlement [2] - The platform has introduced Thai broken rice as a special trading variety aimed at ASEAN, facilitating online cross-border transactions and providing financial solutions to alleviate funding pressures [3] - As of June 30, 2023, the platform has completed a trading volume of 808,500 tons for Thai broken rice, which is set to officially launch on the platform in April 2024 [3] Group 2 - The platform collaborates with financial institutions to provide financing services and has significantly reduced financing costs for enterprises by addressing bottlenecks in cross-border settlement and capital flow [3] - The North Bay (Guangxi) Commodity Trading Platform is positioned as a trading hub for commodities aimed at ASEAN, leveraging national-level open development platforms [2]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong is strategically positioning itself to enhance its status as an international financial, shipping, and trading center by developing a commodity trading ecosystem, particularly focusing on gold and non-ferrous metals [2][4]. Group 1: Strategic Developments - On October 16, 2024, Hong Kong's Chief Executive announced plans to build a commodity trading ecosystem and establish an international gold trading market [2]. - The Hong Kong Airport Authority is planning to expand its precious metals storage facilities to support the development of an international gold trading center [2]. - A working group led by the Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury was established to review various aspects of gold financial trading, including supply and demand, product development, and cross-border cooperation [2][3]. Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals Initiatives - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has included Hong Kong in its global warehouse network for the storage of LME registered metals [3]. - As of May 2025, the number of LME-approved warehouses in Hong Kong has increased to seven, enhancing the region's capacity for metal storage and delivery [3]. Group 3: Tax and Regulatory Framework - The Hong Kong government is considering a proposal to halve the tax on eligible commodity trading activities, which could incentivize more trading in the region [3]. - The introduction of the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0" aims to promote the tokenization of physical assets like gold and non-ferrous metals [3]. Group 4: Implications of Financial Technology - The integration of financial technology, including asset tokenization, is expected to enhance trading efficiency and liquidity in the commodity market [5]. - Tokenization allows for the digitalization and programmability of assets, lowering investment barriers and attracting more retail investors [5]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The developments in Hong Kong's commodity trading ecosystem could position it as a global liquidity center for commodity futures and spot trading, similar to New York and London [6]. - Strengthening connections with domestic markets and integrating with the digital renminbi ecosystem are essential for achieving these strategic goals [6].

Core Insights - Southeast Asia, with a population of nearly 700 million, is one of the most dynamic regions in global economic development, with a GDP of approximately $3.97 trillion last year, growing by 4.6% year-on-year [1] - The 2025 Southeast Asia 500 list published by Fortune shows that the revenue threshold for inclusion is $349.4 million, with total revenues of listed companies reaching $1.82 trillion, an increase of 1.7% from the previous year [1][3] Industry Overview - The energy sector, including mining, power generation, and transmission, dominates the revenue landscape, accounting for nearly one-third of total revenues. The financial sector is the second-largest, with banks and financial institutions occupying 13 of the top 20 profit positions [3] - The top 10 companies contributed $660 billion in total revenue, with the top five generating $516 billion, representing 28% of the total revenue of the 500 companies [5][9] Company Performance - The largest company, Trafigura Group, achieved revenues of $243.2 billion, making it the only company on the list to surpass the $100 billion mark. It is a leader in the global oil, gas, metals, and commodities trading sector [9][11] - Singapore-based Sea Group, the largest tech company in Southeast Asia, reported revenues of $16.82 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%, and a net profit of $444.3 million, up 173.1% [5][11] - DBS Group Holdings emerged as the most profitable company in Southeast Asia 500, with a net profit of $8.45 billion, followed by OCBC and UOB, all three being Singaporean banks [7][11] Country Distribution - Indonesia leads with the highest number of companies on the list at 109, followed by Thailand with 100, Malaysia with 92, and Singapore with 81. Vietnam has 76, the Philippines 40, and Cambodia 2 [3] - Singaporean companies generated $637.1 billion in revenue, accounting for over one-third of the total, with the top ten companies dominating the revenue share [3]

Core Insights - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between Guolian Co., Ltd. and Shandong International Bulk Commodity Exchange, indicating a strong consensus on future collaboration [2][5][6] Group 1: Company Overview - Guolian Co., Ltd. and Weiduoduo are focusing on industrial e-commerce, deep supply chain, big data services, cloud ERP services, smart logistics and warehousing, and intelligent factory solutions to enhance their digital service architecture [6] - Shandong International Bulk Commodity Exchange leverages its location advantage at Qingdao Port, a key hub for bulk commodity circulation in Northeast Asia, to expand its market reach along the Belt and Road Initiative [5] Group 2: Collaboration Details - Both parties recognize the brand influence of Shandong International in the bulk commodity trading service platform and the advantageous position of Weiduoduo in the industrial internet sector [6] - The meeting included key executives from both companies, highlighting the collaborative potential in modern logistics trade and platform services [7]

Core Insights - The successful issuance of a data intellectual property pledge loan in digital RMB by Zhejiang International Oil and Gas Trading Center marks the first instance of such a loan in Zhejiang Province, highlighting the innovative application of digital currency in financing [1][2] - This initiative aligns with national strategies for digital economy development and the promotion of digital RMB, reflecting the rapid growth of the digital economy in Zhejiang Province [1][2] Group 1: Company Initiatives - Zhejiang International Oil and Gas Trading Center has actively responded to national and provincial calls to enhance data elements and explore their potential value [1] - The center has developed a "Zhoushan Price" index system since 2021, focusing on the release of price indices related to bonded fuel oil [1] Group 2: Financial Innovation - The pledge financing focuses on key outcomes of the "Zhoushan Price" system, specifically the "China Zhoushan Low Sulfur Fuel Oil Bonded Bunker Supply Quotation Data" and two other price indices [1] - The loan was issued in digital RMB, demonstrating the value of data elements as assessed by the China Construction Bank's Free Trade Zone branch [1] Group 3: Future Prospects - The successful issuance of the digital RMB data intellectual property pledge loan is seen as a significant step in activating the potential of data elements and enriching the application scenarios of digital RMB in bulk commodity settlements [2] - The center plans to leverage this success to further explore and expand the application scenarios of digital RMB in bulk commodity trading, enhancing its platform capabilities and financial service offerings [2]

Core Insights - The seminar on "Capacity Pre-sale and Order Trading Compliance Innovation" was successfully held in Qingdao, attracting over twenty executives from various companies in the industry [1] - The event aimed to promote communication and learning among industry players, focusing on the healthy development of the bulk commodity market and innovative trading models [1] Group 1: Seminar Overview - The seminar was organized by Qihua Media, emphasizing the importance of innovation in trading models within the bulk commodity sector [1] - Keynote speeches included a review of ten years of supply-side structural reform and the core risk points in the bulk commodity supply chain [1][3] Group 2: Expert Insights - Industry expert Liu Yu discussed the logic and direction of innovation in the bulk commodity market, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive service platform [1] - The market director of Shandong Port Investment Control Group highlighted the importance of aligning trading platforms with national policies to seize innovation opportunities [2] Group 3: Challenges and Discussions - The executive vice president of Shandong Trading Market Clearing Corporation elaborated on the functions and value of clearing institutions [3] - The seminar concluded with a closed-door session where executives shared their current business situations and raised questions about challenges faced during innovation [3]