Fundamental Equity Fund增长3.1%。 Citadel Global Fixed Income Strategy（城堡全球固收策略）增长5%。 至6月1日，城堡资产管理规模为660亿美元。（CNBC） Ken Griffin创立的城堡证券一系列对冲基金在2025年上半年获得正回报。 Wellington Fund上半年资产管理规模扩大2.5%。 Citadel Tactical Fund（城堡战术基金）增长6.1%。 ...

编者按 以下，祝开卷有得。 提示：本公众号所发布的内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议和销售要约。如您对重阳产品感兴趣，欢 迎 扫码 咨询。 图文来源/ 微信公众号【聪明投资者】 作者/ 聪明投资者 本图文已获得转载授权，如需转载请联系原作者， 文章仅代表作者个人独立观点。 "当前（美国）的政策制定方式非常不理性。"如果有谁有资格提醒这个时代重新认真对待"极端事件"，那 一定是纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（Nassim Nicholas Taleb）——风险哲学家、数学家、前期权交易员。"黑 天鹅"这词之所以家喻户晓，就是因为他。早在金融危机之前，他就已经指出：很多看上去高大上的风险 模型，其实一点都不靠谱。在上周这场不到15分钟的对谈中，塔勒布开篇就不客气的说，尽管"黑天 鹅"一词广为流传，人们对"尾部风险"的理解反而更差了。 他认为，今天的市场投资者越来越习惯于将噪音当作信号，尾部风险的定价不仅没有进步，反而更加扭 曲。这正是在宏观不确定性空前复杂的当下，最值得警惕的。从财政赤字到美元信用、从关税到黄金的 避险角色，塔勒布一路点评，一路敲响警钟。他明确表示，美国正处在一个充满"次级效应"的政策误区 里，包括关税政 ...

智通财经6月25日电，Andurand对冲基金2025年迄今累计亏损幅度达到60%。 ...

Andurand对冲基金2025年迄今累计亏损幅度达到60%。 ...

"当前（美国）的政策制定方式非常不理性。" 如果有谁有资格提醒这个时代重新认真对待 " 极端事件 " ，那一定是纳西姆 · 尼古拉斯 · 塔勒布（ Nassim Nicholas Taleb ） —— 风险哲学家、数学家、前期权交易员。 他认为，今天的市场投资者越来越习惯于将噪音当作信号，尾部风险的定价不仅没有进步，反而更加扭曲。 这正是在宏观不确定性空前复杂的当下，最值得警惕的。 从财政赤字到美元信用、从关税到黄金的避险角色，塔勒布一路点评，一路敲响警钟。 他明确表示，美国正处在一个充满 " 次级效应 " 的政策误区里，包括关税政策、移民政策、大而美方案等 等。而所谓 "AI 将拯救生产力 " 的说法也有点画饼充饥，毕竟远水不解近渴。 观点十分鲜明，值得一看。 聪明投资者（ID: Capital-nature） 精译整理分享给大家。 大家对于尾部风险的误判更差了 主持人 过去一年市场震荡不断，而从风险定价的角度来看，这种震荡又是最糟糕的一种。我们看到了地缘 政治风险、美债问题、财政赤字 …… 在这种环境下，投资人是不是应该"买点保险"，也就是进行尾部风险对冲？并不是因为我们看清了市场方 向，而是因为前景实在 ...

Core Insights - The hedge fund market experienced a significant increase in May 2024, with a 2.3% rise, marking the largest gain since March 2024, driven by the Bloomberg Stock Hedge Fund Index [5] - Hedge funds have shown a year-to-date increase of 1.7%, with equity funds leading the gains at 3.3%, while macro funds recorded a maximum decline of 1.2% [5] Private Equity Market Review - The report highlights the ongoing trends in private equity fundraising and investment activities, emphasizing the dynamics of the market [3][8] Hedge Fund Market Overview - In the first quarter of 2024, hedge funds reduced their holdings in the "seven major tech giants" while increasing exposure to Chinese companies listed in the U.S. [8] - Despite escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, hedge funds have favored Chinese stocks, particularly Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and Baidu [8] - A Chinese hedge fund capitalized on a significant drop in the Chinese stock market in April due to new U.S. tariffs, achieving a 20% return since then and a cumulative return of 1,485% since its inception ten years ago [8] Market Dynamics - The report notes that Hong Kong is intensifying tax scrutiny on private equity and venture capital funds, indicating a shift in regulatory focus [9] - PAG is leading the acquisition of 48 shopping centers owned by Dalian Wanda, showcasing active investment strategies in the private equity space [9] - Stonepeak has agreed to acquire the container leasing company Seaco, reflecting ongoing consolidation in the industry [9]

2025 年 6 月 22 日 宏观对冲策略 25 年 H1 回顾与展望 ---2025 年宏观对冲策略半年报 金韬 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002982 jintao3@gtht.com WU YU CHEN（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com 报告导读： 货 研 究 所 我们的观点：2025 年初至今，受内外部政策不确定性影响，股、债、商三类资产出现三杀的次数较多，资产相关性较去年年 底升高、分散化效果减弱。中美贸易、地缘政治及流动性预期波动加剧市场轮动，避险资产对冲效果不及预期，因此对宏观 对冲策略尤其是风险平价类构成实质挑战，且短期内政策不确定性与利率波动仍将主导市场。展望 2025 年，我们建议对宏 观对冲策略的收益预期保持谨慎，尤其是风险平价类策略。 我们的逻辑：今年上半年，由于宏观波动率较大以及全球宏观不确定因素，风险平价指数的回撤与波动都大于资产轮动。清 明之后的两种策略的净值分化尤其明显，即在全球范围内股债商价格齐跌的情况下，配置资产空头的资产轮动类管理人的回 撤明显小于股债商净多头的风险平价类管理人，甚至有部分管理人的空头部分实现盈利，而风险平 ...

第一，尽管近期市场出现动荡，但一些关键板块的估值仍然很高，这意味着如果前景恶化，估值可能会 进一步调整。由此造成的全球金融环境的进一步收紧，可能会对新兴市场的货币、资产价格和资本流动 产生重大影响。 第二，一些金融机构尤其是高杠杆机构，可能会在市场动荡下承压。随着对冲基金和资产管理行业的增 长，它们的总体杠杆水平以及与银行部门的联系也在增加，引发人们对管理不善的非银行金融机构的担 忧，认为其在面临追加保证金通知和赎回时，会被迫去杠杆。 在全球金融环境充满不确定性的背景下，政策协调与国际合作更为迫切。 当前货币政策分化与金融市场波动相互交织，对全球金融稳定构成挑战。 中国人民银行行长潘功胜在2025陆家嘴论坛上指出，全球经济面临高度不确定性。在完善治理结构的同 时，主要国际金融组织应进一步强化经济监督职能，客观评估全球和各国面临的风险，积极引导各国坚 定支持经济全球化和多边贸易体系。加强对各国的政策引导，强化宏观经济政策协调，维护国际金融体 系稳定。 在2025陆家嘴论坛上，十二届全国政协副主席、中国人民银行原行长周小川认为，目前全球宏观经济调 控属于"三无"状态，即无机构、无工具、无共识。全球货币政策包括宏观 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in capital inflow into Asian markets, driven by increased trading activity from hedge funds, marking the highest level in over five years [1] - According to Goldman Sachs, net long positions among hedge funds rose to the highest level since September 2024 during the period from June 6 to June 12 [1] - The share of developed Asian markets in the total risk exposure tracked by hedge funds has increased to 9%, placing it in the 94th percentile of the past five years, indicating a high allocation level [1] Group 2 - The uptick in hedge fund activity coincides with easing signals from high-level trade negotiations between China and the U.S., which took place in London on June 9-10 [2] - The new pro-market South Korean president has boosted confidence in Asian markets, with promises to push the Kospi index to 5000 and legislative reforms to enhance shareholder rights [2] - Since the election of the new South Korean president, the Kospi index has risen over 7%, surpassing 2900 points [2] Group 3 - Some market participants suggest that the trend of "de-dollarization" to hedge against further dollar weakness is also supporting the overall Asian market [5]

Group 1 - The announcement of large-scale tariffs by Trump has led to a significant slowdown in the IPO market, with reports indicating it is "almost at a standstill" [1][6] - In the context of ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty, investors are increasingly turning to alternative investments for yield, with BlackRock setting a fundraising target of $400 billion for its private equity business by 2030, aiming to increase its revenue share from 15% to over 30% [2] - Coller Capital's report indicates that most investors plan to increase allocations to private credit and secondary market assets in the coming year, driven by structural growth factors [2][3] Group 2 - Private credit is the most favored asset class among investors in the alternative asset space, with 45% planning to increase allocations, up from 37% six months ago [3] - Geopolitical risks are now a core consideration for portfolio construction, with 44% of investors increasing their focus on these risks, particularly regional conflicts and trade wars [3] - The application of artificial intelligence (AI) in investment portfolio management is becoming a significant trend, with 90% of U.S. investors planning to leverage AI for value addition [4] Group 3 - Traditional exit channels are facing liquidity challenges, prompting over half of global investors to consider trading private equity assets in the secondary market within the next two years [5] - The total transaction volume in the global secondary market is projected to reach $160 billion in 2024, while IPO exits are expected to generate only $1.1 trillion and $1.3 trillion in 2023 and 2024, respectively, significantly lower than the $600 billion in 2021 [5] - The current environment has led private equity executives to prioritize alternative exit strategies, such as divestitures and continuation funds, with 80% of top fund managers entering the continuation fund market [6]