Report Overview - Date: July 24, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: Macro sentiment dominates the margin, while fundamentals determine elasticity [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are significant differences between bulls and bears, and the trend may fluctuate widely [2][9] - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the upstream resumption of production progress [2][12] - **Polysilicon**: An industry meeting is held, and attention should be paid to market fluctuations [2][13] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 123,370 yuan, down 160 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,900 yuan, down 30 yuan. The trading volume and other indicators also showed corresponding changes [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel iron project entered the trial - production stage; some nickel smelters in Indonesia resumed production, and a cold - rolling mill planned to stop for maintenance [4][5][6] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 69,380 yuan, down 3,500 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, and other indicators. The price of raw materials such as lithium spodumene concentrate also changed [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased; the EU plans to ban non - electric vehicle purchases for rental companies and large enterprises from 2030 [10] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 9,525 yuan, down 130 yuan; the closing price of the PS2509 contract was 50,080 yuan, up 975 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, and other indicators [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: Guizhou Energy Bureau issued a power demand response trading plan [14] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (slightly bullish) [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The support at the ore end has loosened, and there is marginal inventory accumulation of refined nickel globally [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between reality and the macro - environment, and steel prices are fluctuating [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: There are supply - side news disturbances, and high volatility may continue [2][11]. - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts have started to accumulate, and attention should be paid to the upside space [2][14]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the spot trading situation [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,380 yuan, down 1,720 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,695 yuan, down 20 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 94,219 lots, an increase of 13,487 lots from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 66,368 lots, a decrease of 26,319 lots from T - 1 [4]. - **Industrial Chain**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 119,750 yuan, down 1,400 yuan from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 902 yuan, down 2 yuan from T - 1 [4]. Macro and Industry News - In March, Ontario's Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [4]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF successfully produced ferronickel, with a single - line annual output of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel [5]. - An important nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6][8]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, which may affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of 300 - series production [8]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [8]. - Environmental violations were found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed on illegal companies [8]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [9]. - The government - approved 2025 RKAB production of Indonesian nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [9]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0 [10]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 66,660 yuan, an increase of 180 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 764,028 lots, a decrease of 250,530 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 342,146 lots, a decrease of 14,015 lots from T - 1 [11]. - **Industrial Chain**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,900 yuan, an increase of 250 yuan from T - 1; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF) was 8,280 yuan, unchanged from T - 1 [11]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 64,689 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [12]. - On July 15, the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Science and Technology adjusted the "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Exporting in China", adding battery cathode material preparation technology [12][13]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1 [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,785 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 1,416,898 lots, a decrease of 57,095 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 396,653 lots, a decrease of 6,237 lots from T - 1. The closing price of the PS2508 contract was 42,470 yuan/ton, an increase of 705 yuan from T - 1 [14]. - **Price and Profit**: The price of East - China oxygen - passed Si5530 was 9,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan from T - 1; the profit of Xinjiang's new - standard 553 silicon plants was - 2,297 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan from T - 1 [14]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipts) was 55.1 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from T - 5; the polysilicon factory inventory was 27.6 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons from T - 5 [14]. Macro and Industry News - The Hanyuan Yongli Township and Jiaodingshan photovoltaic power generation projects invested by a subsidiary of the National Energy Group were successfully put into operation. The Yongli Township project has a capacity of 130MW and an annual power generation of 167 million kWh [15]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 0 [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: The support at the ore end has loosened, and there is marginal inventory accumulation of refined nickel globally [2]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between reality and the macro - environment, and steel prices are oscillating [2]. - Lithium carbonate: There are policy disturbances on the supply side, and attention should be paid to the subsequent actual progress [2]. - Industrial silicon: Market news has fermented, and the futures price has risen [2]. - Polysilicon: There are policy disturbances, and attention should be paid to the spot transaction situation [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,100 yuan, down 290 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,715 yuan, up 5 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume and other indicators of both contracts also showed corresponding changes [4]. - Industry Chain: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 904 yuan, down 1 yuan from T - 1; the nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference was 308 yuan, down 3 yuan from T - 1 [4]. Macro and Industry News - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [4]. - China Enfei's EPC - contracted Indonesia CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [5]. - A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6][7]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue maintenance from June to July, affecting about 110,000 - 130,000 tons of 300 - series production [7]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban clause from the mining fiscal system bill [7]. - Environmental violations have been found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed [7]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [8]. - The government - approved 2025 RKAB production of Indonesian nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [8]. Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; stainless - steel trend intensity: 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 66,480 yuan, up 2,200 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume and other indicators also changed accordingly [10]. - Spot and Basis: The spot - 2509 basis was - 1,830 yuan, down 1,300 yuan from T - 1 [10]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased by 927 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day [11]. - Tianqi Lithium expects to turn a profit in the first half of 2025, while Ganfeng Lithium still expects a loss but with a reduced amount [11][12]. Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 1 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The closing price of Si2509 was 8,695 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of PS2508 was 41,765 yuan/ton, up 435 yuan from T - 1 [13]. - Price and Profit: The price of industrial silicon and polysilicon products, as well as the profit of related enterprises, showed different changes. For example, the silicon - factory profit in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,387 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan from T - 1 [13]. - Inventory: The industrial - silicon social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) was 55.1 million tons, down 0.1 million tons from T - 5 [13]. Macro and Industry News - Saudi Arabia has signed power - purchase agreements for 7 new solar and wind projects with a total installed capacity of 15GW and a total investment of about 8.3 billion US dollars [13][15]. Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 1; polysilicon trend intensity: 1 [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: The support from the ore end is loosening, and there is marginal inventory accumulation of refined nickel globally [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between reality and the macro - environment, and steel prices are oscillating [2][4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, and macro and warehouse receipt disturbances may occur repeatedly [2][10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to changes on the supply side [2][14]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy disturbances are amplifying the fluctuations in the market [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,390, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,710. There were various changes in trading volume, prices of related products like 1 imported nickel, and premiums and discounts [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia will continue maintenance; the Philippine nickel industry welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved 2025 production target is higher than that of 2024 [4][5][7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the 2509 contract was 64,280, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and other data. There were also changes in spot - futures basis and prices of related lithium products [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; a Canadian company plans to build a lithium - carbonate production facility; China's battery exports in June 2025 showed growth in volume and proportion [11][13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,415, and the PS2508 contract was 41,330. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of related products and raw materials [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple photovoltaic EPC projects were terminated due to policy impacts on distributed photovoltaic power stations [14][16]. Trend Intensity - Nickel: 0 - Stainless Steel: 0 - Lithium Carbonate: 0 - Industrial Silicon: 1 - Polysilicon: 0 [4][10][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The upside potential is limited, and nickel prices are under pressure at low levels [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Inventory has been slightly digested, and steel prices have recovered, but the recovery is limited [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: The number of warehouse receipts has significantly decreased, and subsequent registration should be monitored [2][11]. - Industrial silicon: Market volatility has increased [2][15]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to policy changes [2][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,540 yuan, down 1,730 yuan from the previous day, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,640 yuan, down 90 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, premiums and discounts, and profit margins in the relevant industrial chain [5]. - **Macro and industry news**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia planned to continue maintenance and affect production; the Philippine nickel industry welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period [5][6][8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 63,660 yuan, up 380 yuan. The warehouse receipts decreased by 5,481 hands. There were also changes in the basis, raw material prices, and lithium - salt product prices [12]. - **Macro and industry news**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and the Australian lithium concentrate shipments to China increased [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental data**: The Si2509 closing price was 8,045 yuan, up 65 yuan, and the PS2508 closing price was 36,515 yuan, up 1,005 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, profits, and inventory [16]. - **Macro and industry news**: Trina Solar signed a component supply agreement with an Austrian company [16][18].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: July 6, 2025 [1][4][30][56] - Report Type: Guotai Junan Futures Research Weekly Report on Green Finance and New Energy [1] - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [2][4][30][56] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - Core View: Nickel prices may be under pressure at low levels, with a slight downward cost expectation and limited upside potential [4] - Fundamental Analysis: The support at the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upside elasticity of nickel prices. The cost of the pyrometallurgical path remains high in July, but the premium of Indonesian nickel ore has marginally declined. The market sentiment regarding increased Indonesian quotas has eased, and the speculation sentiment has cooled down. The smelting end, including stainless steel production cuts and nickel-iron inventory accumulation, may limit the upside space of refined nickel [4] - Inventory Changes: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,429 tons to 38,020 tons, while LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,824 tons to 202,470 tons. The nickel-iron inventory at the end of June reached a historical high, with a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 66% and 8%, respectively [6][7] - Market News: There were various news events related to nickel, including potential export restrictions from Canada, new project production in Indonesia, and the resumption of production at a nickel smelter [10] Stainless Steel - Core View: The supply and demand of stainless steel are weak, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5] - Fundamental Analysis: The short-term off-season demand is weak, and the negative feedback from the US tariff increase on steel products has been transmitted to the supply side. The production in July decreased year-on-year and month-on-month, while the inventory decreased slightly. The cost of stainless steel has decreased, and the profit margin has been slightly repaired [5] - Inventory Changes: The total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 0.20% week-on-week, with the cold-rolled and hot-rolled inventories decreasing by 0.53% and 0.18%, respectively [7] Group 3: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Core View: The upside space of industrial silicon is limited, and a short-selling strategy is recommended [30][34] - Price Trend: The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated widely this week, while the spot price increased [30] - Supply and Demand: The industry inventory decreased this week. The production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased due to the wet season, while the production in Xinjiang decreased. The futures warehouse receipts decreased, and the overall industry inventory continued to decline [31] - Market Outlook: The upside space of industrial silicon is limited due to the lack of policy support and the slowdown in warehouse receipt reduction. A short-selling strategy is recommended [34] Polysilicon - Core View: It is recommended to hold positions cautiously and pay attention to policy announcements [30][35] - Price Trend: The polysilicon futures price increased significantly this week, and the spot price also rose [30] - Supply and Demand: The upstream inventory of polysilicon continued to accumulate, and the terminal demand declined. The silicon wafer production decreased, and the enterprises planned to raise prices [32][33] - Market Outlook: The market is trading on the policy expectation of "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic industry. It is recommended to wait for policy details and hold positions cautiously [35] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate - Core View: The profit margin of the lithium carbonate futures market has opened up, and attention should be paid to the upside pressure [56] - Price Trend: The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated upward this week, while the spot price increased [56] - Supply and Demand: The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to remain high due to the increase in lithium ore prices and the profitability of external ore procurement. The demand is expected to weaken due to the "anti-involution" policy and the reduction of new energy subsidies in the US [57][58] - Market Outlook: It is recommended to short-sell on rallies, with the price of the 2507 contract expected to range between 55,000 and 65,000 yuan/ton [59]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel: No clear investment rating provided, but analysis suggests potential downward pressure and limited upside [4] - Stainless Steel: No clear investment rating, expected to trade in a narrow range [5] - Industrial Silicon: Recommended for short - selling, with limited upside potential [30] - Polysilicon: Suggested to hold positions cautiously and wait for policy details [30] - Lithium Carbonate: Recommended to short on rallies, with attention on upper - limit pressure [56] - Palm Oil: In a weak - reality, strong - expectation situation. Short - term seasonal short - selling is possible, and long - position building at low levels can be considered in late Q3 [85] - Soybean Oil: Weak reality persists, waiting for effective drivers from the US soybean side [84] 2. Core Views - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The support at the nickel ore end is weakening, and the smelting end restricts the upside of nickel prices. Stainless steel is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited upward momentum for prices [4][5] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The upside of industrial silicon is limited, and short - selling is recommended. Polysilicon should be observed for policy details, and short - selling can be considered after the market sentiment subsides [30][34] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures profit margin is open, but the upward pressure is significant due to factors such as anti - cut - throat competition and the cancellation of US new - energy subsidies [56][57] - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is currently influenced by international oil prices, with a weak - reality, strong - expectation situation. Soybean oil's weak reality continues, waiting for effective drivers from the US soybean side [84][85] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Price Movement**: The Shanghai nickel main contract and stainless steel main contract showed certain price fluctuations. For example, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 122,270 yuan/ton [14] - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore support is weakening, and stainless steel supply and demand are both weak. The nickel - iron inventory has reached a historical high [4][5] - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased, while LME nickel inventory decreased. Stainless steel social inventory decreased slightly [6][7] - **Market News**: There were various events such as potential export restrictions on nickel from Canada, project startups and shutdowns in Indonesia, and policy - related news in the Philippines and Indonesia [10][11] **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Price Movement**: Industrial silicon futures fluctuated widely, and spot prices rose. Polysilicon futures rose significantly, and spot prices increased [30] - **Supply and Demand**: Industrial silicon inventory decreased, and polysilicon upstream inventory continued to accumulate. The supply and demand of both showed different trends [31][32] - **Market Outlook**: Industrial silicon is recommended for short - selling, and polysilicon should be observed for policy details [34][35] **Lithium Carbonate** - **Price Movement**: The lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated upwards, with different price changes in futures and spot markets [56] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to remain high, but demand is suppressed by factors such as anti - cut - throat competition and US subsidy cancellation. Inventory continues to increase [57][58] - **Market Outlook**: Short - selling on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the upper - limit pressure [59] **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil** - **Price Movement**: Palm oil 09 contract rose 1.15% last week, and soybean oil 09 contract fell 0.72% [84] - **Supply and Demand**: Palm oil has a situation of uncertain production and potential supply - demand changes. Soybean oil's weak reality persists [84][85] - **Market Outlook**: Palm oil is in a weak - reality, strong - expectation situation, and soybean oil is waiting for effective drivers from the US soybean side [84][85]

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated July 3, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core Views - **Nickel**: The support at the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: Inventory is slightly decreasing marginally, and steel prices are recovering but with limited elasticity [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The governance of involutionary competition mainly affects the downstream automotive industry demand, and attention should be paid to the amplification of volatility by macro - sentiment disturbances [2][10] - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term sentiment disturbances, and attention should be paid to the upward space [2][13] - **Polysilicon**: The futures market is expected to rise first and then fall [2][13] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: On July 3, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,220 yuan, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,670 yuan. There were changes in trading volume, prices of related products, and spreads compared to previous periods [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia planned to continue maintenance and adjust production according to the market; the Philippine nickel industry welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period [4][5][7][8] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: On July 3, 2025, the closing price of the 2507 contract was 63,980 yuan, and there were changes in trading volume, open interest, and prices of related products compared to previous periods [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; a rumored suspension of an Australian mining company was untrue; a Chilean joint - venture obtained a lithium - mining quota approval [11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: On July 3, 2025, the closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,210 yuan, and the closing price of the PS2508 contract was 35,050 yuan. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, spreads, and prices of related products compared to previous periods [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Southern Regional Power Market started continuous settlement trial operation [13][15] - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report offers trading strategies and trend analysis for various commodities. For example, copper is supported by a weak dollar; zinc is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price; lead has a positive outlook due to peak - season expectations; nickel's upside is limited by changes in the mining and smelting sectors; stainless steel prices are recovering with limited elasticity; and lithium carbonate may continue to experience high volatility [3][6]. Summary by Commodity Base Metals - **Copper**: The weak dollar supports copper prices. The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,920 yuan with a 1.31% daily increase, and the London copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,879 dollars with a - 0.17% change. Japanese JX Metal will cut refined copper production, and China's May copper ore imports decreased month - on - month [6]. - **Zinc**: It is at a short - term high. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,410 yuan with a 0.76% increase. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [9][10]. - **Lead**: There are peak - season expectations supporting prices. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,125 yuan with a - 0.58% change. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [12]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's support from the mining end is weakening, and the smelting end limits its upside. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120,480 yuan. Stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and prices are recovering with limited elasticity. The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,620 yuan. There are multiple industry news such as project startups and production resumptions in the nickel industry [14][15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: High volatility may continue due to fundamental pressure and warehouse - receipt contradictions. The 2507 contract closed at 63,240 yuan. SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased [18][19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is affected by production - cut news, and attention should be paid to its upside space. Polysilicon requires attention to market sentiment. The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon closed at 8,030 yuan, and the PS2508 contract of polysilicon closed at 33,315 yuan [21]. - **Iron Ore**: It shows wide - range fluctuations with repeated expectations. The 12509 contract closed at 716.5 yuan with a 1.56% increase. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [24]. - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,995 yuan with a 0.98% increase, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,121 yuan with a 0.94% increase. There are changes in steel production, inventory, and demand [26][27]. - **Ferroalloys (Silicon Ferro, Manganese Ferro)**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. Silicon ferro is boosted by spot sentiment, and manganese ferro is boosted by port quotes. The silicon ferro 2509 contract closed at 5370 yuan, and the manganese ferro 2509 contract closed at 5670 yuan [31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both show a tendency to be strong with fluctuations. The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 847.5 yuan with a 3.42% increase, and the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1421.5 yuan with a 1.86% increase [34][35]. - **Steam Coal**: It stabilizes with fluctuations as daily consumption recovers. The ZC2507 contract had no trading, and previous prices showed a decline [39][40]. - **Log**: It shows wide - range fluctuations with a contract - main switch. The 2507 contract closed at 819 yuan [43]. - **Paraxylene, PTA, MEG**: Paraxylene supply is shrinking, and the month - spread is strong; PTA is recommended for month - spread reverse arbitrage; MEG is weak on a single - side basis. Paraxylene's 9 - 1 month - spread shows a positive trend, and PTA and MEG have their own supply - demand and cost - related factors [46][50]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It will run with short - term fluctuations. The main contract of cis - polybutadiene rubber closed at 11,275 yuan. The industry has inventory and price changes [52]. - **Asphalt**: It shows weak fluctuations, and long - crack spread positions should consider taking profits. The BU2507 contract closed at 3,577 yuan. Refinery inventory rates decreased [55]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The near - end fundamentals in the producing areas have limited improvement, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention should be paid to the US soybean acreage report [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: Soybean meal rebounds with fluctuations, and risks related to the USDA report should be avoided. Soybean No.1 has a stable spot price and a rebounding and fluctuating futures price [5]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to auctions [5]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound consolidation [5]. - **Cotton**: Optimistic sentiment drives the futures price to rise with fluctuations [5]. - **Eggs**: Gradually arrange short positions in far - month contracts [5]. - **Hogs**: There is a short - term adjustment [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the lower level [5].

Report Overview - Report Date: June 27, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: The long - term expectation of the nickel ore end is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upside potential [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Both supply and demand are marginally weak, and steel prices will fluctuate at a low level [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: The number of warehouse receipts is increasing but the total amount is low, and the short - term trend is sideways [2][8] - Industrial Silicon: Affected by production cut news, attention should be paid to the upside space [2][11] - Polysilicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and attention should also be paid to the upside space [2][12] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,830 yuan, with various changes compared to previous periods. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,635 yuan. There were also detailed data on prices, premiums, spreads, and profits in the industrial chain [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; an Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue maintenance and affect production; the Philippine nickel industry welcomed the removal of the raw ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4][7] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of the 2507 and 2509 contracts showed different changes compared to previous periods. There were also data on warehouse receipts, basis, and prices of various lithium - related products in the industrial chain [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. China's automobile export volume is expected to grow, which may affect lithium demand [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: There were data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of the Si2509 and PS2508 contracts. Also included were data on spreads, basis, prices, profits, and inventories in the industrial chain, as well as raw material costs [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: A solar cell and module manufacturing plant in Indonesia jointly established by Longi Green Energy was launched, which will increase Indonesia's solar energy production capacity [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]