Group 1 - The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (Kospi) has risen for seven consecutive trading days, increasing by 0.8% to close at 4624.79 points, with gains in battery and construction stocks [1][3]. - South Korean authorities have summoned seven local banks to inquire about the increase in dollar deposits amid the weakening of the Korean won [1][3]. - The Foreign Exchange Management Department held a meeting with these banks to review foreign currency deposits and related services [1][3]. Group 2 - The Korean won has depreciated by 0.24% to 1462.5 won per dollar, marking its ninth consecutive day of decline and reaching the lowest level in over two weeks [2][4]. - The Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) has also inquired about the increase in dollar deposits at local banks to assess overall data and trends [1][3].

2026 年 1 月 12 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 Economic Perspectives - 就业走弱 就业走弱 美国 12 月新增非农就业低于预期，10 月和 11 月数据下修，显示就业市场走 弱。新增就业主要集中在酒店休闲和教育医疗等服务行业，建筑和制造业就 业减少。DOGE 影响告一段落，联邦政府就业首次连续回升。12 月失业率降 至 4.4%，11月失业率被下修至 4.54%，因为劳动参与率下降和劳工供应减少 抵消劳工需求走弱。市场对年内可能降息 50 个基点的预期变化不大。我们预 计美联储全年仅在 6 月降息一次 25 个基点，很大程度作为新任主席上任后的 政治表态。上半年美国经济可能处于金发姑娘状态，减税政策提振经济增 长，油价和房租通胀回落抵消商品通胀反弹，美元流动性保持宽松状态，风 险资产可能走高。下半年美国经济可能呈现滞涨趋势，经济增速放缓，而通 胀止跌回升，美元流动性收紧预期升温，风险资产可能回调。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingna ...

摘要 2026年，就业的"低增长平衡"和增长的"无就业繁荣"或是美国经济的两个特征 。由于供求同步收缩，美 国就业或维持"低增长平衡"。但在消费韧性、AI资本开支、进口重置和货币财政宽松等刺激下，美国经 济或延续"无就业繁荣"。 美国12月非农新增就业人数5万，略弱于预期，但失业率回落至4.4%，劳动力市场延续"低增长平衡"。市 场表现较为"平淡"，需关注美联储降息节奏"后置"的预期差。 一、概览：美国12月非农弱于预期，但失业率回落至4.4% 美国12月非农就业新增5万人，弱于市场预期，但失业率回落至4.4%。 机构调查方面，12月美国非农新 增就业5万人，市场预期6.5万人，10月、11月新增就业被下修；家庭调查方面，12月美国失业率回落0.1 个百分点至4.4%，劳动参与率回落0.1个百分点至62.4%。 数据公布后，市场表现较为"平淡"。 北京时间1月9日9:30PM美国12月就业数据公布后，10Y美债利率、 美元指数在短暂、小幅回落后均有所反弹，美股小幅上涨后回落，金价持续上行，显示市场在数据公布 之时更为担忧非农的低于预期，但此次数据对市场整体冲击不大。 二、结构：如何理解非农与失业率的分化？劳动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "Chinese-style modernization" as a guiding principle for the development of the housing and construction sector, highlighting the need for high-quality development and strategic planning for both the current and future economic cycles [1] Group 1: Real Estate Development - The focus is on stabilizing the real estate market by implementing city-specific policies to control growth, reduce inventory, and optimize supply, while also promoting urban village renovations [2] - The "white list" system will be leveraged to release rigid and improvement demands, establishing a dual rental and purchase housing system to enhance the diversity of housing supply [2] - Reforms in the housing fund system will be deepened to improve property management services and promote the construction of quality housing [2] Group 2: Urban Renewal - High-quality urban renewal initiatives will be undertaken, including comprehensive city assessments and orderly renovations of old urban communities [2] - The establishment of a dynamic project reserve for urban renewal will be guided by addressing public pain points and urban functional shortcomings [2] - The aim is to create high-quality living spaces for the populace through the development of replicable models, termed "Longjiang Model" [2] Group 3: Construction Industry Transformation - The construction industry will focus on integrating innovative technologies and promoting the application of new materials to enhance productivity in cold regions [2] - The development of smart construction technologies, including building robots and advanced construction equipment, will be prioritized [2] - A push towards green transformation will involve promoting green buildings and comprehensive green construction practices [2] Group 4: Urban Management Modernization - There will be an increased emphasis on governance investment and the upgrade of digital city models (CIM platform) [3] - Urban management will be coordinated more effectively, with resources directed towards grassroots levels to enhance community services [3] - The implementation of "one-stop" administrative services and integrated urban operation management will be pursued to optimize service delivery [3]

Employment Data Overview - December non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000, below the expected 60,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%[2] - The labor force participation rate declined to 62.4%, which statistically suppresses the unemployment rate, diluting its actual significance[4] Employment Sector Insights - Private sector added 37,000 jobs, with leisure and hospitality, and education and healthcare contributing 88,000 jobs combined, significantly boosting overall non-farm employment[14] - Job losses were evident in the goods-producing sectors, with construction, manufacturing, and mining losing 11,000, 8,000, and 2,000 jobs respectively, indicating weakening demand in the real economy[14] Wage Trends - Average hourly earnings in the service sector rose by 3.7% year-on-year, while goods-producing sectors saw a 4.1% increase, driven more by structural factors than by demand[20] - The increase in average wages reflects a structural effect where low-wage positions are being eliminated, raising the average wage of remaining employees[20] Monetary Policy Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in January is near zero, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain a cautious stance due to the current employment and inflation dynamics[24] - The Fed's policy decisions will be influenced by upcoming inflation data and potential changes in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) membership, which could reshape market expectations[24]

华福证券 2026 年 01 月 10 日 宏 观 研 究 就业供需矛盾加剧 ——2025 年 12 月美国非农就业数据点评 投资要点： 宏 新增非农就业延续放缓。12 月新增非农就业降至 5 万人，低于预期的 6 万人，与 12 月 ADP 就业不及预期相互印证；前值修正方面，10 月和 11 月共下修了 7.6 万人。私人部门就业数据上看，12 月新增 3.7 万人，11-12 月（不考虑 10 月）平均新增为 4.3 万人，三季度均值为 5.7 万人，整体上 新增就业逐步放缓趋势不变。结构上看，仍旧是传统服务业贡献主要增量。 观 点 评 失业率意外回落。12 月失业率回落 0.1 个百分点至 4.4%，前值也下修 0.1 个百分点至 4.5%，劳动参与率降至 62.4%。分失业原因看，12 月份重 返就业市场人口和被裁员失业人口是主要拖累，而这两项是 11 月失业率超 预期回升的主要贡献，指向本月失业率回落可能是 10-11 月政府停摆期间 导致非农统计工作异常的修正。平滑来看，11-12 月重返就业市场人口和被 裁员失业人口分别为 1.2 万人和 9.6 万人，分别对应劳动参与率企稳和企业 裁员意愿较 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a continued slowdown in non-farm employment growth, with December's addition dropping to 50,000, below the expected 65,000, and a downward revision of 76,000 for October and November combined [2] - The private sector added 37,000 jobs in December, with an average of 43,000 jobs added in November and December, indicating a persistent trend of slowing job growth [2] - The leisure and hospitality sectors contributed significantly to job growth, adding 47,000 and 41,000 jobs respectively, while manufacturing continued to show negative job growth, indicating weak demand in the sector [5] Group 2 - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, with the labor force participation rate decreasing to 62.4%, suggesting a complex labor market dynamic [6] - The number of job vacancies in November dropped to 7.146 million, the lowest since 2021, indicating a growing mismatch between labor supply and demand [8] - Average hourly earnings in December increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, reflecting resilience in wage growth despite broader economic challenges [9][12] Group 3 - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in January decreased significantly from 14% to 5%, indicating a shift in market sentiment following the release of the non-farm data [17] - The overall labor market conditions suggest an increasing supply-demand imbalance, which may continue to exert pressure on the employment market moving forward [17]

January 9, 2026 03:24 AM GMT 中国 - 经济温度计 | Asia Pacific 开年靠基建，实体需求弱 基建支出提前，或支撑1季度5%增长。然而，消费和房地产依 旧疲弱，经济活动其后势头恐难以持续。 年初新动态： 2025年末经济活动有所反弹，但预计四季度GDP增速仍将低于4.5%：年末生产⽰ 投资增速或有所⹛弹： （1）⸼年秋季推的1万亿人民币的财政支持正在ⱶ速传 导； （2）中国对美货运量趋稳 ( Exhibit 5 ) ，作为亚洲贸易风⺸标的韩国数 据改ヤ （ Exhibit 6 ），都显示外需仍具韧性；（3）季末存在一定的生产⫿量。 然而，考虑⮽高基数、年末以旧换新补贴ⱱ度⬵弱，以⹖房价持续下行ⱶⰎ负财 富效应 ( Exhibit 7 ⽰ Exhibit 8 )，消费增速⺎能进一步回落。 2026年国补：规模相近，节奏更加平滑。为确保政策延续，⬀策层于12月30日 布了详细指引，较⸼年提⯥一⼽。我们预计全年补贴规模或仍在3,000亿人民币左 ⺓。然而，首批国补资金为625亿人民币，低于⸼年的810亿人民币，⺎能⹛映⬀ 策层希望平滑全年补贴的放节奏。此外，汽车与家电的件补贴 ...

Employment Data Summary - In December, the U.S. added 50,000 non-farm jobs, below the expected 70,000 and the previous value of 56,000, but still above the Dallas Fed's estimate of 30,000 jobs needed for labor market balance [1][5] - Private sector job growth was 37,000, also below the expected 50,000, indicating weak hiring intentions among businesses [5][6] - The three-month average for both total and private sector job additions has declined, reflecting a cooling labor market [6] Sector Analysis - Job growth in the service sector rebounded, with significant contributions from leisure and hospitality (+47,000), healthcare and social assistance (+39,000), and local government (+18,000) [9][10] - Conversely, job losses were noted in retail (-25,000), construction (-11,000), and professional and business services (-9,000), indicating greater pressure on cyclical industries sensitive to interest rates [9][10] Unemployment Rate Insights - The unemployment rate (U3) decreased from 4.54% to 4.38%, with an increase of 232,000 in the employed population and a decrease of 278,000 in the unemployed population [2][10] - The labor force participation rate (LFP) slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4%, with notable improvements in the unemployment rate for the 16-19 age group [2][10] Wage Growth and Labor Market Dynamics - Wage growth remained sticky, with December hourly wages increasing by 3.8% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, surpassing previous values [2][16] - The average weekly hours worked decreased slightly to 34.2 hours, but the resilience in wage growth supports household purchasing power [16][17] Overall Labor Market Conditions - The U.S. labor market is in a new equilibrium state, with both labor supply and demand growth slowing down [3][18] - The tightening of immigration policies and demographic factors are contributing to a slowdown in labor supply, while demand is cooling due to interest rate effects and cautious corporate sentiment [3][18] Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - Data has reduced the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January, with market expectations for a pause in rate cuts rising to 95% [4][19] - Following the data release, U.S. Treasury yields saw a slight increase, and major stock indices rose, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards broader economic recovery narratives [4][19]

Core Insights - In 2025, Shenyang's "Four Above" units achieved a significant milestone by increasing by 369 units, reaching a total of 10,062, marking the first time surpassing the 10,000 threshold, indicating a new level of economic development and providing strong momentum for sustainable growth in 2026 [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Impact - The "Four Above" units, which include large-scale industries, retail, service sectors, qualified construction, and real estate, form the backbone of Shenyang's real economy, contributing to key economic indicators such as GDP, fixed asset investment, retail sales, and fiscal revenue [1] - In 2025, there were 1,248 new "Four Above" units added, with 282 newly opened and reaching scale, representing a 63.0% year-on-year increase, laying a solid foundation for economic development in 2026 [1] Group 2: Quality Improvement - The structure of "Four Above" units is undergoing qualitative optimization, with 39 high-quality enterprises with over 100 million in revenue included in the statistics for 2025, reflecting a shift towards high-tech, high-value-added industries [2] - The acceleration towards high technology and strong driving effects among the registered enterprises illustrates the positive outcomes of Shenyang's industrial transformation and the conversion of old and new growth drivers [2] Group 3: Statistical Enhancements - The steady expansion and optimization of the "Four Above" units is a manifestation of Shenyang's commitment to comprehensive statistical work and improved service efficiency, with various local departments implementing effective measures to enhance data collection and monitoring [3] - The city will continue to focus on improving statistical networks and dynamic management to support high-quality development through enhanced data quality and decision-making capabilities [3]