Core Viewpoint - The report from Caitong Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Beike-W (02423), projecting revenue growth from 103.3 billion yuan in 2025 to 130.6 billion yuan in 2027, driven by the company's leading position in the real estate brokerage market and expansion into diversified businesses like home decoration and furniture [1][2]. Group 1 - The company holds a solid leading position in the brokerage sector, with significant growth potential in the second-hand housing market [2]. - The company's second-hand housing transaction volume is expected to grow by 13.7% year-on-year to 1.1638 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, contributing to a 4.0% increase in second-hand housing revenue to 13.6 billion yuan [2]. - The market share of the company's new housing business has been steadily increasing, reaching 12.6% as of June 30, 2025, with a prepaid commission model reducing accounts receivable risk [2]. Group 2 - The company is expanding its three wings of business, creating new growth opportunities, particularly in the home decoration sector, which is characterized by a vast market potential [2]. - The home decoration industry in China has historically lacked large-scale enterprises due to its non-standardized, low-frequency, and bulk nature, but the company aims to leverage its brokerage business's customer acquisition advantages and strong brand effect to address trust issues in the traditional home decoration market [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company, Beike-W (02423), is expected to benefit from the vast potential of China's second-hand housing market, maintaining a "buy" rating with projected revenues of 103.3 billion, 117.1 billion, and 130.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [1] - The company is anticipated to achieve Non-GAAP net profits of 7.4 billion, 8.8 billion, and 10.8 billion yuan for the same period, indicating profit elasticity due to diversification into home decoration and furniture businesses [1] - The company's leading position in the real estate brokerage sector is solid, with a significant growth potential in the second-hand housing business, which is expected to stabilize first in the current industry cycle [1] Group 2 - The company is expanding its three wings of business, particularly in the home decoration sector, which is seen as a second growth curve due to the vast market space in China [2] - The home decoration industry has historically lacked large-scale enterprises due to its non-standardized, low-frequency, and bulk nature, but the company aims to leverage its brokerage business to reduce customer acquisition costs and enhance brand effect [2] - The company's standardized capabilities and operational model are expected to effectively address trust issues in the traditional home decoration industry, positioning it well for future integration [2]

Core Insights - The company maintains a strong position in the brokerage sector, with significant growth potential in the second-hand housing market and a steady increase in market share for new housing [1] - The company's second-hand housing transaction volume increased by 13.7% year-on-year to 1,163.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, leading to a 4.0% rise in second-hand housing business revenue to 13.6 billion yuan [1] - The market share for new housing transactions reached 12.6% as of June 30, 2025, with a prepaid commission model reducing accounts receivable risk [1] Business Expansion - The company is exploring new growth opportunities through its "three wings" business strategy, particularly in the home decoration sector, which has significant market potential [1] - The home decoration industry has historically struggled to develop large-scale enterprises due to its non-standardized, low-frequency, and bulk nature [1] - The company leverages its extensive brokerage business to achieve low customer acquisition costs and strong brand effects, aiming to address trust issues in the traditional home decoration industry [1] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected at 103.3 billion yuan, 117.1 billion yuan, and 130.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [2] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the same period are 7.4 billion yuan, 8.8 billion yuan, and 10.8 billion yuan [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the broad market potential in the second-hand housing sector and its diversified business expansion, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Core Insights - I Love My Home Group (000560.SZ) reported a total housing transaction value (GTV) of approximately 196.2 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [1] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 42.3 million yuan, a significant year-on-year growth of 398.75% [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items reached approximately 54.2 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 173.96% [1] Group 1: Brokerage Business Performance - The brokerage business continued to show steady growth, with a GTV of 156.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [3] - Market share in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai has steadily improved, with the second-hand housing transaction business showing resilience [3] - The company's refined operational system built over 20 years in core cities has contributed to its competitive edge, enabling quick responses to market fluctuations [3] Group 2: New Housing Business Growth - Despite a challenging new housing market, the new housing business achieved a GTV of 25.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [4] - The company’s effective risk management and resource allocation have supported its business resilience [4] - Marketing initiatives, such as the "Summer New Housing Festival," and digital upgrades have successfully stimulated demand [4][5] Group 3: Future Opportunities and Market Outlook - The policy environment is expected to continue supporting the real estate market, with various cities likely to introduce supportive measures [6] - The focus on high-quality development in the real estate sector presents significant opportunities for professional housing service providers [6] - I Love My Home's competitive advantages are reinforced by its extensive community service network and digital capabilities, positioning it well for future growth [6]

Core Viewpoint - The "Star Exam" organized by the leading real estate brokerage company, I Love My Home, serves as a benchmark for assessing the professional quality of real estate agents, promoting the professionalization of the industry [1][3]. Group 1: Exam Purpose and Structure - The "Star Exam" is designed to ensure that real estate agents possess strong professional capabilities, addressing the complexities and risks associated with real estate transactions [3][4]. - The exam is not just a test but a comprehensive learning experience for agents, providing opportunities for both new and experienced agents to update their knowledge and skills [3][4]. - The exam results are directly linked to consumer service experiences, influencing agents' visibility on the company's online platform [4][5]. Group 2: Exam Content and Relevance - The 2025 "Star Exam" features upgraded content that reflects current market demands and regulatory changes, with a focus on real-world service scenarios [5][7]. - The exam includes 100 questions corresponding to 100 service scenarios, integrating recent regulations and market policies to ensure agents can effectively safeguard client interests [5][7]. - The assessment criteria have expanded to include not only legal knowledge but also comprehensive transaction safety and ethical service practices [7][9]. Group 3: Training and Support Systems - I Love My Home has established a comprehensive talent development system that includes practical training, an intelligent learning platform, and specialized training bases [8][9]. - The "Star" intelligent learning platform offers over 5,025 courses, with high participation rates among agents, facilitating continuous professional development [8][9]. - The company has created a "Zhen Service" intelligent platform to provide real-time support for agents, ensuring they have access to necessary resources and guidance [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Lianjia has established a robust "安心服务承诺" (Assurance Service Commitment) system, which has significantly enhanced trust in real estate transactions, allowing for rapid sales even in challenging circumstances [1][7][22]. Group 1: Assurance Service Commitment - The "安心服务承诺" has evolved from eight initial commitments to a comprehensive system of twenty commitments covering second-hand homes, new homes, and rentals, with a total of 16.08 billion yuan in guarantee funds and 151,900 transactions secured as of September 2025 [7][22]. - A case study illustrates the effectiveness of this commitment, where an elderly seller, burdened with debt and a mortgaged property, successfully sold his house within 24 hours through Lianjia's professional services and market analysis [6][11]. Group 2: Brand and Community Engagement - Lianjia has been recognized for its long-term commitment to brand integrity, winning the "历久出新典范" award for its resilience and adaptability in the real estate market [1][22]. - The company has transformed its stores into community hubs, providing free services such as water and rest areas for outdoor workers, thereby enhancing its role in social responsibility [16][20]. Group 3: Professional Development of Agents - Lianjia emphasizes the importance of its agents as core brand assets, investing in their training to ensure they become trusted advisors rather than just salespeople [11][14]. - The company has established a large training base to cultivate agents' professional skills and service awareness, ensuring they adhere to high ethical standards [14]. Group 4: Community Service Initiatives - Lianjia has initiated over 20,000 community volunteer services, with participation from more than 68,000 agents, reinforcing its commitment to social responsibility and community engagement [20][22]. - The company has also organized children's art exhibitions in its stores, fostering community connections and promoting local culture [20].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "weak recovery" in the real estate brokerage industry as of September 2025, with a景气度指数 of 49.11, which is still below the neutral line of 50, suggesting ongoing challenges in growth [5][8]. Core Insights - The real estate brokerage industry has shown signs of a "weak recovery" since March 2025, with the景气度指数 gradually increasing from 46.31 in August to 49.11 in September, indicating a slight improvement in market conditions [5][9]. - The increase in the景气度指数 is attributed to a combination of factors including an increase in supply, enhanced activity from brokers, and improved circulation efficiency, which have collectively offset the weakening demand [9][10]. - Despite a decline in demand indicators, such as the房源找房热度 index dropping from 0.53 in August to 0.43 in September, the overall positive factors have outweighed the negative impacts [9][10]. Summary by Sections National Real Estate Brokerage Industry Overview - As of September 2025, the industry continues to experience a "weak recovery" with a景气度指数 of 49.11, indicating a slight upward trend from previous months [5][8]. - The景气度指数 is calculated using various indicators including demand, supply, inventory, broker activity, and circulation efficiency, with values above 50 indicating growth [7][9]. Key Cities Real Estate Brokerage Industry Overview - Among the 46 monitored cities, over 30% have a景气度指数 above 50, with more than 60% showing improvement compared to the previous month, signaling a recovery trend [8][15]. - The report highlights that in September, 15 cities had景气度指数 above 50, with notable increases in cities like 石家庄 (59.20) and 合肥 (56.49) [16][19]. - The report emphasizes that the industry is adopting a strategy of "quality first" to stimulate potential demand, focusing on enhancing service quality and transaction efficiency [19].

Group 1 - Beijing residents in the Wangjing area can now enjoy new conveniences for real estate transactions through a collaboration between Beijing Lianjia and China Everbright Bank [1][3] - The service aims to address the pain points of traditional second-hand housing transactions, which previously required multiple trips to different locations, making the process cumbersome and time-consuming [3][5] - The pilot program offers two core services: self-service printing of property certificates and self-service querying of real estate information, enhancing the efficiency of property transactions [3][5] Group 2 - The self-service devices utilize internet, big data, and smart terminal technology, ensuring secure connection with Beijing's real estate registration system while significantly improving transaction speed [5][7] - The service is available on weekdays and weekends, allowing residents to manage their time flexibly without being restricted by traditional service hours [5][7] - Beijing Lianjia has already launched online real estate registration services in four signed service centers in the Chaoyang District, facilitating 17 high-frequency online services related to second-hand property transactions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company "I Love My Home" has launched the "Good Neighbors, Good Gifts, Good Life" community event, running from September 22 to October 31, 2025, featuring various community welfare activities and prize draws [1] Group 1: Community Engagement Activities - The "Good Neighbor Festival" aims to enhance resident participation through activities like "Community Reviews" and "Home Buying Assistance" with guaranteed prizes for participants [3] - Residents can participate in the "Community Review" activity by providing genuine evaluations of their living areas on the I Love My Home app, with the first 1,000 participants guaranteed to receive a gift card [3] - The event includes a rich prize pool, featuring items such as the iPhone 17 and kitchen appliances, aligning with residents' housing and lifestyle needs [3] Group 2: Value of Community Reviews - Each genuine review contributes to the community's "reputation asset," increasing visibility and attracting potential buyers, thereby shortening the selling cycle and enhancing property value [4] - Reviews provide insights into the living experience, helping prospective buyers make informed decisions based on shared community experiences [5] - The company aims to foster community engagement through the "Community Review" initiative, enhancing understanding of community needs and improving service quality [5] Group 3: Offline Community Support - The festival also includes offline community activities such as property lectures and practical workshops, bringing convenience and warmth to residents [6] - The company has established "Property Corners" in various communities, where professional advisors provide insights on market trends and property transactions [6] - The initiative encourages residents to participate in online reviews during these offline events, promoting community building through both online and offline interactions [6] Group 4: Future Vision - The company emphasizes that real estate services extend beyond transactions, focusing on emotional connections within the community [6] - Future plans include deepening community engagement and enriching event content to establish the "Good Neighbor Festival" as a sustainable community brand [6]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is transitioning into a "stock era," with an increasing proportion of second-hand housing transactions, leading to more rational consumer behavior and heightened expectations for service quality [1] Group 1: Company Initiatives - Beike (BEKE.US/02423.HK) launched the "True Guarantee" service assurance system in Tianjin, which includes 35 service commitments focusing on key areas such as "real housing sources," "fund safety," and "privacy protection" [1] - The platform has implemented three major commitments nationwide: "real housing sources, compensation of 100 yuan for false listings," "no-reason commission refund if the transaction fails," and "advance payment for property debts" [1][2] - Beike has established a 100 million yuan special guarantee fund to ensure quick compensation for consumers in compliant transactions that encounter losses [2] Group 2: Risk Management and Execution - Beike employs a mechanism of "1 standard + 2 capabilities + 100 million yuan guarantee fund" to streamline the transaction process and ensure effective execution of commitments [2] - The platform has achieved a cumulative compensation of 5.56 billion yuan across 376,000 cases from 2001 to August 2025 [2] - As of July 2025, Beike's platform has reached a fund custody ratio of 97.2%, with a cumulative guarantee fund scale of 0.75 trillion yuan [5] Group 3: Market Coverage and Future Plans - The "True Guarantee" commitments have been officially launched in 10 cities, including Zhengzhou, Wuhan, and Nanjing, with plans to expand to approximately 50 out of 76 targeted cities by next year [5] - Beike aims to reduce transaction risk from 0.1% to 0.0006% through strict process control and risk management [5] - The company believes that the "True Guarantee" will be a key competitive advantage in the stock era, enhancing brand image and building a trust-based moat [5]