- The report uses the Mahalanobis distance of recent weekly price and trading volume changes to measure industry crowding[3][17] - Last week, the home appliances and non-ferrous metals industries experienced significant short-term crowding[4][17] - The first quadrant represents industries with rising prices and volumes, while the third quadrant represents industries with falling prices and volumes. Points outside the ellipse indicate industries with price and volume deviations exceeding the 99% confidence level, signifying short-term significant crowding[17]

Market Activity - The trading activity in the A-share market has increased, with the average daily trading volume rising to CNY 2.1 trillion, and the turnover rate for the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 93%[4] - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit up has increased to 74.4, with a maximum consecutive limit up of 5 stocks[4] - The proportion of stocks that rose has decreased to 54.4%, with the median weekly return for all A-shares dropping to 0.4%[4] Fund Flows - Foreign capital has turned to inflow, with a net inflow of USD 2.7 million as of August 13, while the northbound trading volume accounted for 11.0%[4] - Public funds saw a decrease in new issuance to CNY 5.947 billion, while overall stock positions increased[4] - Private equity confidence index slightly rebounded, with positions decreasing marginally[4] Sector Performance - Significant inflows were observed in the electronics sector (+CNY 13.27 billion) and machinery equipment (+CNY 4.01 billion), while outflows were noted in coal (-CNY 0.23 billion) and textiles (-CNY 0.01 billion)[4] - The ETF market experienced a net outflow of CNY 27.93 billion, with passive trading volume increasing to 5.4%[4] Global Market Trends - Southbound capital inflows increased to CNY 38.12 billion, marking the 92nd percentile since 2022[4] - Global foreign capital saw a net inflow of USD 68.5 billion into developed markets, with the US and UK leading the inflows[4] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.7%, reflecting a broader global market uptrend, with Indonesia's index leading at +4.8%[4]

截至8月12日，市场最新融资余额为20203.65亿元，较上个交易日环比增加81.65亿元，分行业统计，申 万所属一级行业有22个行业融资余额增加，电子行业融资余额增加最多，较上一日增加43.52亿元；融 资余额增加居前的行业还有计算机、电力设备、房地产等，融资余额分别增加11.11亿元、9.17亿元、 7.19亿元；融资余额减少的行业有9个，有色金属、银行、纺织服饰等行业融资余额减少较多，分别减 少14.63亿元、1.20亿元、9355.20万元。 以幅度进行统计，房地产行业融资余额增幅最高，最新融资余额为317.86亿元，环比增长2.32%，其次 是电子、综合、通信行业，环比增幅分别为1.86%、1.63%、1.00%；融资余额环比降幅居前的行业有有 色金属、纺织服饰、石油石化等，最新融资余额分别有908.35亿元、73.83亿元、242.77亿元，分别下降 1.58%、1.25%、0.36%。（数据宝） 8月12日各行业融资余额环比变动 | 代码 | 最新融资 | 较上一日增减（亿元） | 环比增幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 余额（亿元） | | | | 电子 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is expected to enter a new phase of upward momentum in the second half of the year, potentially breaking through the peak of the second half of 2024 due to a shift from policy-driven to fundamental and liquidity-driven market dynamics [1][3][4] - The A-share market showed positive performance last week, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index rising, while the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices lagged behind [2][3] - Domestic market performance is supported by both internal and external favorable factors, including a weak U.S. labor market and proactive domestic policies, which are expected to bolster asset prices [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July indicated a lower-than-expected increase of 73,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.2%, leading to heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [4][5] - Domestic policies remain actively supportive, with multiple measures being implemented, and the fundamental economic indicators show resilience, such as a 7.2% year-on-year increase in exports in July [5][6] - The market is advised to focus on short-term sectors that have lagged and those likely to benefit from improved overseas liquidity, as well as long-term themes in consumption, technological independence, and dividend stocks [6]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is designed to monitor the crowding levels of Shenwan First-Level Industry Indices on a daily basis, identifying industries with high or low crowding levels and tracking changes in crowding over time[3] - **Model Construction Process**: The report does not provide specific details on the mathematical or algorithmic process used to construct the crowding monitoring model. However, it is implied that the model uses historical data and metrics to assess crowding levels across industries[3] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively highlights industries with significant crowding changes, such as the notable increases in crowding for the non-ferrous metals and beauty care sectors, providing actionable insights for investors[3] 2. Model Name: Premium Rate Z-Score Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is used to identify potential arbitrage opportunities in ETF products by calculating the Z-score of premium rates over a rolling window[4] - **Model Construction Process**: - The Z-score is calculated as: $ Z = \frac{(X - \mu)}{\sigma} $ - Where $ X $ is the current premium rate, $ \mu $ is the mean premium rate over the rolling window, and $ \sigma $ is the standard deviation of the premium rate over the same period - The model identifies ETFs with extreme Z-scores, signaling potential arbitrage opportunities or risks of price corrections[4] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to ETF selection, helping investors identify mispriced ETFs while cautioning against potential downside risks[4] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - No specific numerical backtesting results or metrics are provided for this model in the report[3] 2. Premium Rate Z-Score Model - No specific numerical backtesting results or metrics are provided for this model in the report[4] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods The report does not explicitly mention any standalone quantitative factors or their construction processes. It focuses on the models described above. --- Factor Backtesting Results No standalone factor backtesting results are provided in the report. The focus remains on the models and their applications.

Industry Overview - A total of 8 industries experienced net inflows of main funds, while 23 industries saw net outflows [1] - The electronic industry had the largest net inflow of main funds at 3.12 billion, with a price change of 0.45% and a turnover rate of 3.49% [1] - The mechanical equipment industry recorded the largest net outflow of main funds at -6.32 billion, with a price change of -0.07% and a turnover rate of 3.64% [1] Detailed Fund Flow Analysis - **Electronic Industry**: - Trading volume: 9.68 billion - Change in trading volume: +21.77% - Net inflow: 3.12 billion [1] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: - Trading volume: 6.63 billion - Change in trading volume: +23.38% - Net inflow: 0.65 billion [1] - **Textiles and Apparel**: - Trading volume: 2.13 billion - Change in trading volume: +13.48% - Net inflow: 0.465 billion [1] - **Transportation**: - Trading volume: 3.23 billion - Change in trading volume: +13.05% - Net inflow: 0.46 billion [1] - **Food and Beverage**: - Trading volume: 1.62 billion - Change in trading volume: +31.77% - Net inflow: 0.447 billion [1] Industries with Significant Outflows - **Mechanical Equipment**: - Trading volume: 9.86 billion - Change in trading volume: -5.69% - Net outflow: -6.32 billion [2] - **Pharmaceuticals**: - Trading volume: 8.50 billion - Change in trading volume: -7.92% - Net outflow: -5.239 billion [2] - **Automotive**: - Trading volume: 5.54 billion - Change in trading volume: -10.66% - Net outflow: -3.752 billion [2] - **Electric Equipment**: - Trading volume: 6.65 billion - Change in trading volume: -1.57% - Net outflow: -4.813 billion [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all major indices rise today, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.66% closing at 3583.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.46% at 11041.56 points, the ChiNext Index up by 0.50% at 2334.32 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index rising by 1.22% to 1049.41 points [1][14] - Overall, there were 3875 stocks that increased in value while 1310 stocks declined, with 230 stocks remaining unchanged. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 14986 billion, a decrease of 998 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the leading sectors included defense and military, machinery and equipment, non-ferrous metals, textile and apparel, and media, with respective increases of 3.06%, 1.93%, 1.87%, 1.37%, and 1.28%. The sectors that experienced declines were commerce and retail, petroleum and petrochemicals, social services, comprehensive, and building materials, with decreases of 0.46%, 0.36%, 0.21%, 0.13%, and 0.06% respectively [1][14] Concept Sectors - The top-performing concept sectors today included continuous boards, military-civilian integration, large aircraft, aircraft carriers, and gold and jewelry, among others. Notable sectors that saw declines included film and television, dairy, and photovoltaic rooftops [2][11]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94% this week, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.58%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.74%. The CSI 300 Index declined by 1.75% [1] - Among the tradable A-shares, 1,725 stocks rose, accounting for 31.84%, while 3,642 stocks fell [1] Capital Flow - The total net outflow of main funds this week was 211.86 billion yuan, with a consistent net outflow across all trading days. The ChiNext saw a net outflow of 53.35 billion yuan, while the STAR Market had a net outflow of 17.08 billion yuan, and the CSI 300 components experienced a net outflow of 53.38 billion yuan [1][2] Industry Performance - In the Shenwan industry classification, six sectors saw gains this week, with the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector leading with a rise of 2.95%, followed by the communication sector with a 2.54% increase. Conversely, the coal and non-ferrous metals sectors faced the largest declines, down 4.67% and 4.62% respectively [3] - Only one industry, banking, experienced a net inflow of main funds, totaling 4.33 billion yuan, despite a 0.84% decline in its stock price [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector had the highest net outflow of funds, totaling 25.99 billion yuan, with a 4.62% drop in stock price. The computer sector followed with a net outflow of 20.45 billion yuan and a slight decline of 0.20% [3][4] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 1,276 stocks saw net inflows this week, with 159 stocks having net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan. Agricultural Bank of China led with a net inflow of 1.14 billion yuan and a 2.43% increase in stock price. Other notable stocks with significant inflows included Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical and China Merchants Bank, with net inflows of 1.01 billion yuan and 862 million yuan respectively [5] - Conversely, 632 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with Dongfang Caifu, Northern Rare Earth, and Shenghe Resources leading in outflows, with net outflows of 3.84 billion yuan, 3.37 billion yuan, and 2.81 billion yuan respectively [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the equity market rose significantly, but convertible bonds underperformed underlying stocks. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 3.83% from July 1 - 30, while the CSI All - Share Index rose 5.8%. Year - to - date, the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the CSI All - Share Index increased by 11.11% and 10.33% respectively [4]. - The healthcare sector was strong, and convertible bonds followed the upward trend but still underperformed underlying stocks. The healthcare and information technology convertible bond indices had the best performance in July, with increases of 7.82% and 7.13% respectively. The financial convertible bond index only rose 0.47% this month, while the underlying stocks rose 3.69% [5]. - Due to the significant rise of underlying stocks, the double - low strategy significantly underperformed the high - price and low - premium strategy in July. The double - low strategy index only rose 2.36% in July and 9.12% year - to - date, while the high - price and low - premium strategy rose 7.29% in July and 13.75% year - to - date [41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Monthly Market Tracking - **Overall Market Performance**: In July, the convertible bond market underperformed underlying stocks. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 3.83%, and the CSI All - Share Index rose 5.8%. The convertible bond market lagged behind the CSI 500 Index by 2.92 percentage points [4]. - **By Price Classification**: In July, the Wande high - price convertible bond index rose 5.84%, significantly outperforming the low - price (+4.27%) and medium - price (+2.72%) indices. Year - to - date, the low - price (+11.78%) and high - price (+11.76%) convertible bonds had similar cumulative increases, both higher than the medium - price convertible bonds (+9.07%) [4]. - **By Convertible Bond Stock Volume**: In July, the Wande small - cap (+4.47%) and mid - cap (+4.02%) convertible bond indices were strong, outperforming the large - cap convertible bond index (+3.11%). Year - to - date, the small - cap index (+15.97%) led the large - cap (+9.02%) and mid - cap (+9.81%) indices [23]. - **By Credit Rating**: In July, the AA+ (+5.13%) and AA (+5.44%) convertible bond indices had relatively large increases. The AA - and below convertible bond index rose 4.54%, while the AAA high - rating convertible bonds still underperformed. Year - to - date, low - rating convertible bonds significantly outperformed high - rating ones, with the AA - and below convertible bonds rising 17.53%, and AA and AA+ rising 11.62% and 10.36% respectively [26]. - **By Industry**: In July, the healthcare and information technology convertible bond indices performed best, with increases of 7.82% and 7.13% respectively. The financial convertible bond index only rose 0.47%, while the underlying stocks rose 3.69%. The performance of the public utilities convertible bond index was also better than that of the underlying stocks [5]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Monthly Investment Recommendations 3.2.1 Strategy Recommendation: The Double - Low Strategy Should Focus on the Valuation Elasticity of Underlying Stocks - **July Double - Low Portfolio Performance**: The double - low portfolio constructed in July consisted of 22 bonds ranked in the bottom 5% by the double - low value. From July 1 - 30, the portfolio's return was 1.78% (equal - weighted allocation, without active screening), underperforming the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 2 percentage points [44]. - **August Double - Low Portfolio Recommendation**: After screening out bonds with high delisting/redemption risks and weak underlying stock performance and valuation expectations, 15 bonds were selected. The industries with the most bonds were light manufacturing (3), machinery and equipment (2), and non - ferrous metals (2). The average convertible bond price, conversion value, and conversion premium rate of the portfolio were 124 yuan, 117 yuan, and 7% respectively [6][48]. 3.2.2 Allocation Recommendation: Focus on the More Growth - Oriented AI and Robotics Sectors As the market risk appetite has significantly recovered, high - price and low - premium convertible bonds can be used to replace underlying stocks to better capture the upside potential of underlying stocks. It is recommended to focus on the technology sector, especially AI and robotics, which have both thematic concepts and rapid performance growth [52].