10月9日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，烧碱期货主力合约开盘报2520.0元/吨，今日盘中低位震 荡运行；截至发稿，烧碱主力最高触及2526.0元，下方探低2442.0元，跌幅达2.35%附近。 目前来看，烧碱行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于烧碱后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 瑞达期货（002961）指出，10月氯碱装置检修损失量预计较9月有所下降，或带动烧碱产能利用率中枢 上移。氧化铝利润持续下降并接近盈亏平衡线，只是目前企业尚无规模性减产计划，短期耗碱需求预计 不会出现大幅收缩；非铝下游缺乏需求改善信号，预计维持刚需采购。国庆期间物流受阻，液碱工厂有 累库预期。节后随着下游部分非铝行业复工，液碱工厂库存压力或将缓解。今年四季度至明年年初下游 氧化铝有新装置投放，给到远端供需改善预期。关注氧化铝新产能补库节奏。节后烧碱盘面震荡对待， SH2601区间预计在2470-2580附近。 中原期货分析称，国庆小长假，山东市场需求端无明显利好，送主力下游液碱量仍较大，氯碱企业开工 负荷较高且下游卸货不畅，短期库存消化压力大，预计小长假期间库存大概率增加。近期不排除继续降 价可能。综合来看，山 ...

10月9日，新金路盘中上涨2.13%，截至13:23，报5.76元/股，成交1.97亿元，换手率5.74%，总市值37.36 亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出1904.08万元，特大单买入629.70万元，占比3.20%，卖出1971.86万元， 占比10.02%；大单买入4198.35万元，占比21.33%，卖出4760.27万元，占比24.18%。 新金路今年以来股价涨60.00%，近5个交易日涨10.77%，近20日涨11.84%，近60日涨13.83%。 今年以来新金路已经10次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为5月27日，当日龙虎榜净买入-6115.93万 元；买入总计1.22亿元 ，占总成交额比8.89%；卖出总计1.83亿元 ，占总成交额比13.36%。 资料显示，四川新金路集团股份有限公司位于四川省德阳市泰山南路二段733号银鑫·五洲广场一期21栋 22-23层，成立日期1992年4月18日，上市日期1993年5月7日，公司主营业务涉及氯碱化工、塑料制品的 生产与经营等业务。主营业务收入构成为：树脂产品41.61%，碱产品38.43%，其他19.97%。 新金路所属申万行业为：基础化工-化学 ...

张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品种 | 9月30日 | 9月29日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2601 收盘价 | 2328 | 6567 | -31.00 | -1.31% | | | MA2605 收盘价 | 2362 | 2388 | -26.00 | -1.09% | | | MA15价差 | -34 | -29 | -5.00 | 17.24% | | | 太仓基差 | -125 | -138 | 13.50 | -9.78% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 2090 | 2090 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2250 | 2250 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2238 | 2250 | -12.50 | -0.56% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 148 | 160 | -12.50 | -7.81% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-洛阳 | -13 | 0 | -12.50 | #DIV/0! | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market trading is average, and the chlor - alkali market shows a weak and fluctuating trend. PVC supply is abundant, downstream consumption is limited, and the export side shows some resilience. The 32% alkali spot price of caustic soda has been continuously reduced, the 50% alkali orders have improved, and the inventory situation is complex, with attention needed on downstream procurement and production capacity expansion [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,896 yuan/ton (-1), the East China basis is -176 yuan/ton (+1), and the South China basis is -86 yuan/ton (+1) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,720 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,810 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 690 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,890 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 48 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is -784 yuan/ton (-127), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is -645 yuan/ton (+7), and the PVC export profit is 7.1 dollars/ton (+1.4) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: The PVC in - factory inventory is 31.8 million tons (+1.2), the social inventory is 53.5 million tons (+0.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 76.97% (+0.06%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 74.12% (+2.12%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 76.11% (+0.68%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 75.9 million tons (+0.4) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,515 yuan/ton (-13), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -15 yuan/ton (+13) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,300 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 725.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 159.78 yuan/ton (-20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,381.75 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 39.12 million tons (+1.29), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.08 million tons (-0.10), and the caustic soda operation rate is 82.50% (+0.60%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 85.95% (-0.28%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 66.15% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.82% (+0.30%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. The supply is abundant with planned maintenance in some areas and new production capacity ramping up. Although enterprises are actively pre - selling, downstream operation rates are generally slightly down, and consumption is limited. The export side shows some resilience, but the PVC wallpaper anti - dumping investigation in India may have an impact on exports [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of 32% caustic soda has been continuously reduced, the 50% caustic soda orders have improved, and the price has stabilized. Supply may increase slightly, and demand from the alumina industry is stable but with high - price sales difficulties. There are differences in inventory changes, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement, production capacity expansion, and cost support [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Hold [4]. - Inter - delivery spread: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract for V01 - V05 when the spread is high [4]. - Inter - commodity spread: No strategy [4]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Hold [5]. - Inter - delivery spread: Buy the near - term contract and sell the far - term contract for SH01 - SH05 when the spread is low, paying attention to downstream procurement rhythm and alumina capacity expansion progress [5]. - Inter - commodity spread: No strategy [5].

Company Overview - Xinjin Road Group Co., Ltd. is located in Deyang, Sichuan Province, and was established on April 18, 1992, with its listing date on May 7, 1993. The company primarily engages in the production and operation of chlor-alkali chemicals and plastic products [1][2]. - The main business revenue composition includes resin products (41.61%), alkali products (38.43%), and others (19.97%) [1]. Stock Performance - As of September 30, Xinjin Road's stock price increased by 2.03%, reaching 5.54 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.593 billion CNY. The trading volume was 50.9181 million CNY, with a turnover rate of 1.53% [1]. - Year-to-date, Xinjin Road's stock price has risen by 53.89%, with a 7.78% increase over the last five trading days, a 2.97% increase over the last 20 days, and a 9.06% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Xinjin Road reported an operating income of 816 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 16.27%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -67.036 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 15.16% [2]. - The company has cumulatively distributed 124 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends distributed in the last three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 10, Xinjin Road had 53,600 shareholders, a decrease of 17.24% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 20.83% to 11,312 shares [2]. Market Activity - Xinjin Road has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" 10 times this year, with the most recent appearance on May 27, where it recorded a net buy of -61.1593 million CNY. The total buy amounted to 122 million CNY, accounting for 8.89% of total trading volume, while total sales reached 183 million CNY, accounting for 13.36% of total trading volume [1].

三季度烧碱呈现宽幅震荡格局，价格主要运行区间在2400-2800元/吨，期间受政策预期与基本面变化交 替影响。 6月底7月初开始，盘面强势上涨，初期受现货企稳支撑，中旬政策预期加码，市场陷入" 淘汰落后产能 "以及石化行业的老旧装置概念被重新定义的氛围里，乐观情绪进一步推动烧碱价格加速上行。7月末至8月 初，随着政策表述缓和、市场情绪降温以及现货供需转弱——山东地区开工高位、库存累积、氧化铝企业补 库结束，盘面出现了回调，烧碱2601合约下探至2500元/吨附近。 南华期货2025年度烧碱四季度展望 ——把握阶段性供需错配机会 寿佳露（投资咨询资格证号：Z0020569） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月30日 第一章 主要观点 【核心观点】展望四季度，烧碱整体供需矛盾有限，价格或更多受到阶段性补库需求影响。目前碱厂综合利 润良好，高开工和高产量预计维持，烧碱中长期供应持续面临压力。氧化铝新投项目的持续对烧碱需求形成 支撑，但氧化铝自身基本面偏过剩且价格持续承压，对烧碱价格的上方空间形成压制。出口保持谨慎乐观预 期。成本上，虽然利润估值不低，但长期以碱补氯的情况下有所支撑。四季 ...

Consumption - Automotive retail and wholesale volumes continue to rise, but year-on-year growth has marginally declined due to the low base effect from the Mid-Autumn Festival[6] - Service consumption has weakened, particularly in urban areas affected by typhoon weather, leading to a significant drop in subway ridership in first-tier cities[7] - Food and beverage prices have shown a slight recovery, with agricultural product wholesale prices increasing, but the year-on-year decline continues to widen due to high base effects from 2024[6] Investment - As of September 27, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 3.71 trillion, with CNY 446.52 billion issued in September alone, marking the fastest issuance pace since 2020[19] - Real estate sales have seen a slight seasonal improvement, but the absolute values remain at historical lows, with new home sales in 30 cities showing a marginal year-on-year decline[19] - The asphalt construction rate has risen significantly, reaching a yearly high, while cement and steel consumption indicate slower construction progress[19] Trade and Export - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.9% month-on-month, with container freight rates from Shanghai and Ningbo dropping by 7% and 8.5% respectively[27] - The manufacturing PMI readings for the US and Europe in September were 52.0 and 49.5, indicating a slight decline in overseas manufacturing activity, which may weaken demand for imports from China[27] Production and Inventory - Most industries are experiencing a decline in production, with coal consumption in coastal provinces showing a seasonal decrease[29] - Inventory levels are primarily decreasing, with significant reductions in coal inventories at ports due to increased downstream purchasing ahead of the holiday[37] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight recovery, with service prices in transportation, education, and healthcare increasing year-on-year, while clothing and housing prices have declined[42] - Industrial product prices are mixed, with the South China price index falling by 0.3% month-on-month, while cement prices increased by 2.5%[42] Liquidity - The central bank's net cash injection through reverse repos was CNY 640.6 billion last week, with an additional CNY 300 billion in medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations, totaling CNY 880.6 billion to support liquidity[44] - The US dollar index has risen significantly, reflecting a stronger US economy and impacting the USD/CNY exchange rate, which increased from 7.1125 to 7.1345[44]

价格偏弱运行，关注节后变化 ——烧碱周报2025.09.29 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 交易咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观：市场继续交易美联储降息路径，关注美国最新的非农数据 | | 1、国内外宏 | | | 变化。 | 烧碱2601合约 | 观政策及经 | | | 2、供需面：本周正值国庆小长假，市场出货维持前期订单，企业或 | 上方参考压力 | 济数据变化； | | 烧碱 | 稍有承压，预计华东区域液碱价格暂稳为主。山东市场由于国庆长 | 位2700元/吨 | 2、企业装置 | | | 假临近，目前省内液碱需求端暂无明显利好，小长假省内碱厂库存 | 一线，下方支 | 检修情况； | | | 预计增加可能性较大，不排除近期继续降价可能。 | 撑位2400元/ | 3、下游需求 | | | 3、整体逻辑：山东地区现货走势偏弱，需求端表现不及预期，盘面 | 吨一线。 | 变化 ...

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 2 | | | | 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | | 3 | | | | 4 | | | | 6 | | | | 8 | | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 10 | | | | 免责声明 | 11 | 氯碱板块研发报告 烧碱 2025 年 10 月报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 弱现实，强预期 第一部分 前言概要 银河期货 第 2 页 共 11 页 氯碱板块研发报告 烧碱 2025 年 10 月报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 第二部分 基本面情况 图 1：烧碱 9 月行情走势 单位：元/吨 图 2：山东氧化铝大厂液碱送货量 单位：吨 图 3：山东氧化铝大厂液碱采购价 单位：元/吨 第 3 页 共 11 页 烧碱 2025 年 10 月报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 氯碱板块研发报告 | | | 第 4 页 共 11 页 表 1： 氧化铝新增产能 单位：万吨 图 4：山东液碱湿吨库存 单位：吨 图 5：山东 32%碱现货市场价格 单位：元/吨 氯碱板块研发报告 烧碱 2025 ...

氯碱产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年9月29日 移诗语 Z0017002 | PVC、烧碱现货&期货 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 9月26日 | 9月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 山东32%液碱折百价 | 2500.0 | 2500.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 山东50%液碱折百价 | 2600.0 | 2600.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 华东电石法PVC市场价 | 4740.0 | 4760.0 | -20.0 | -0.4% | | | 华东乙烯法PVC市场价 | 5000.0 | 5000.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | SH2509 | 2661.0 | 2668.0 | -7.0 | -0.3% | | | SH2601 | 2528.0 | 2537.0 | -9.0 | -0.4% | 元/吨 | | SH基美 | -161.0 | -168.0 | 7.0 | -4.2% | | | SH2509-2601 ...