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Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC market's overall supply - demand pattern remains weak, but recent "rush - to - export" sentiment supports the spot, and the long - term cost expectation is raised due to the mercury - free transformation. The PVC outlook is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the market acceptance of spot prices, inventory changes, and macro - expectations [3] - The spot price of caustic soda shows mixed trends. The low - price spot stimulates some pre - Spring Festival stocking purchases. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is generally weak. The export orders improve slightly. After the Spring Festival, the spot purchase may improve, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine and the downstream purchase rhythm [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC main contract is 4,992 yuan/ton (+11), the East China basis is - 212 yuan/ton (-1), and the South China basis is - 102 yuan/ton (+29) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,780 yuan/ton (+10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,890 yuan/ton (+40) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 735 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,930 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 52 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 659 yuan/ton (+86), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is 103 yuan/ton (+82), and the PVC export profit is 8.9 dollars/ton (+9.9) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 28.8 tons (-0.2), the social inventory is 59.3 tons (+0.8), the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 80.37% (+0.39%), the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 73.25% (+2.64%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 78.21% (+1.08%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 107.1 tons (+11.1) [1] Market Analysis - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st, and the "rush - to - export" led to strong export orders, which have recently declined. The upstream inventory pressure is not large. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak. The supply is abundant, with a slight decline due to some maintenance. The downstream operation rate is decreasing, and there is a further decline expectation. The social inventory is slightly increasing and at a high level compared to the same period last year. The upstream chlor - alkali production profit is slightly repaired, but still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide price is rising, the semi - coke price is stable, the calcium carbide profit is improving, and the semi - coke profit is still in a loss state. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, and there is still pressure on the futures market for hedging [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH main contract is 1,937 yuan/ton (+75), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 100 yuan/ton (-78) [1] - Spot price: The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 588 yuan/ton (-1), and the 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 1,010 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 821 yuan/ton (-3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 139.8 yuan/ton (-203.1), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 542.21 yuan/ton (-3.13), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 740.29 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 47.14 tons (-4.89), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.76 tons (+0.05), and the caustic soda operation rate is 87.80% (+0.10%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 84.06% (-0.71%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 27.91% (-22.74%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis - The spot price of caustic soda shows mixed trends. The low - price spot stimulates some pre - Spring Festival stocking purchases, and the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu is decreasing. The overall supply operation is at a high level, and there are no new maintenance enterprises in the future. The demand side has a general receiving sentiment. Some alumina plants are under maintenance, the operation rate is slightly decreasing, the unloading efficiency is average, and the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda is decreasing. The non - aluminum industry is gradually entering the seasonal off - season. The export orders are slightly improving. Before the Spring Festival, the downstream operation rate of liquid chlorine is decreasing, the liquid chlorine price is falling, and the comprehensive cost support of chlor - alkali is strengthening. The current caustic soda warehouse receipts have a certain suppression on the futures market [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, there were rumors that the second - phase roasting furnaces of a large alumina plant in North China were shut down for maintenance, leading to inventory backlog and suspension of front - end feeding, to be verified next week [4]. - The supply and demand of caustic soda are both weak. The supply - side device load decreased slightly, with the chlor - alkali operating load rate dropping 0.81 percentage points to 90.63%, and the caustic soda output in terms of 100% purity being 881,400 tons, a 0.89% decrease from the previous week. Although some device overhauls led to a slight reduction in supply, the overall supply was still sufficient [4]. - The demand side showed a differentiated operation, with rigid demand coming to an end. The operating capacity of the main downstream alumina dropped to 75.42% (a 2.34 - percentage - point decrease), weakening demand support; although the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased to 83.78%, due to the approaching Spring Festival, downstream stocking was basically over, and the overall willingness to receive goods became weaker [4]. - Inventory was depleted, and losses widened. The pressure on the upstream was relieved. The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda factories in Shandong dropped to 109,800 tons, a significant 8.88% decrease from the previous week. Traders maintained low inventories due to risk - aversion sentiment, and the social inventory changed little. Profits were severely in the red, and the willingness to raise prices was strong. The average loss of chlor - alkali enterprises (including self - owned power plants) in Shandong expanded to 91.17 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by over 60% [4]. - It is expected that the prices of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda will remain stable next week, with little room for significant fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work progress of downstream enterprises after the festival and changes in alumina procurement prices [4]. - For trading strategies, the caustic soda is expected to be weak in the single - side trading; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply and demand of caustic soda are both weak. Supply decreased slightly due to some device overhauls, but overall it was still sufficient. Demand was differentiated, with alumina demand weakening and viscose staple fiber demand tapering off. Inventory decreased, and losses widened. It is expected that prices will remain stable next week [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side: Caustic soda is weak; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [5] Core Logic Analysis - **Alumina in Shandong**: The delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large alumina plants in Shandong was at a high level, and the price continued to decline. From January 4th to January 24th, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong was successively reduced by 15 yuan/ton each time, and the current delivery volume is 13,812 tons [7][10]. - **Alumina Operation**: This week, domestic overhauls and production cuts were frequent, and the operating capacity fluctuated. As of Friday, the national alumina built - in capacity was 114.62 million tons, and the operating capacity was 94.25 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons from the previous week. Next week, two alumina enterprises in Guangxi will resume production, and two in Shanxi will enter the overhaul state. It is expected that the national operating level will fluctuate around 94 million tons. The spot trading atmosphere is expected to be lighter, and the spot price will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [17]. - **Caustic Soda Operation**: This week, the average utilization rate of the production capacity of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above in China was 87.8%, a 0.1% increase from the previous week. Regionally, the chlor - alkali loads in Central and South China increased, while those in North, East, and Southwest China slightly decreased, and those in Northwest and Northeast China were basically stable. The weekly production capacity utilization rate in Shandong was 90.1%, a 1% decrease from the previous week [19]. Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory**: As of February 5, 2026, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 471,400 tons (wet tons), a 9.41% decrease from the previous week and a 2.97% increase from the same period last year. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 27.47%, a 2.56% decrease from the previous week. The storage capacity ratios in North, East, and South China decreased, while those in Northwest, Central, Northeast, and Southwest China increased [11]. - **Price**: The prices of 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, and their regional and variety spreads are presented in the form of charts, reflecting the price trends from 2020 - 2026 [30][33][35]. - **Profit**: The profit charts of caustic soda and chlor - alkali in Shandong and Jiangsu from 2022 - 2026 are provided, showing the profit trends and the prices of liquid chlorine [43]. - **Production**: The production capacity utilization rate, production volume, and provincial - level production volume of caustic soda from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts [52][55]. - **Consumption**: The demand, weekly consumption (including exports) of caustic soda, liquid caustic soda, and flake caustic soda from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts [57][58]. - **Alumina**: The production, operating capacity, operating rate, and planned new production capacity of alumina from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts and tables. In the first quarter of 2026, there will be more new alumina production capacity, especially in Guangxi, which will drive the demand for 50% and flake caustic soda in Shandong and other places [61][66]. - **Viscose Staple Fiber and Printing and Dyeing**: The factory - level inventory and weekly operating rate of viscose staple fiber from 2019 - 2026, and the operating rates of printing and dyeing in East China, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts [69][70][72]. - **Export**: The export volume, FOB price in North China, and export profit of caustic soda from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts [74][75].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Urea: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand patterns of various chemical products are affected by factors such as approaching the Spring Festival, production capacity changes, and downstream demand. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, and the market trends vary, with some showing short - term fluctuations and others having long - term pressure or improvement expectations [2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of acrylonitrile futures declined during the day. Although there is an expected increase in supply, the pre - holiday supply shortage is difficult to reverse. Demand is mainly rational buying. The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures also declined, and as the Spring Festival approaches, the demand support for the market weakens [2] Polyester - PX and PTA futures prices fluctuated during the day. PX is recommended for long - position allocation in the first half of the year, but currently, the demand is declining, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. PTA load increased slightly, and the processing margin declined. Ethylene glycol inventory increased, but the rate of accumulation slowed down. In the second quarter, there is an expectation of improvement in supply - demand. Short fiber has a good supply - demand pattern but weak downstream orders. Bottle chip processing margin has recovered, but there is long - term capacity pressure [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The main contract of pure benzene continued to decline, and the spot market trading slowed down. The supply - demand pattern of pure benzene is expected to improve around the Spring Festival. The main contract of styrene futures declined, and the supply - demand structure will weaken until the Spring Festival, with seasonal inventory accumulation after the festival [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol overseas plant operation rate declined. Coastal demand is weak, and it is difficult to reduce inventory in the short term. Domestic production increased, and the main production areas have smooth inventory clearance. After the Spring Festival, the methanol market may slowly reduce inventory. Urea daily production is high, and the market is supported by agricultural and reserve demand. After the Spring Festival, the demand is expected to increase significantly [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC fluctuated slightly. The industry will enter the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthening, and it is recommended to buy at low prices. Caustic soda is running strongly, but the profit is compressed, and there may be supply reduction due to potential maintenance. It is expected to run around the cost [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is running weakly, with increasing inventory and high supply. It is recommended to short on rebounds. Glass futures prices fluctuated upward, with inventory increasing and production capacity compressing. It is recommended to look for low - value buying opportunities [8]

智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，自2025年年底以来，PVC相关个股都有明显上涨，同时PVC 商品价格虽有一定上涨，但更多被解读成为应对26年4月后出口增值税不退税政策的抢出口行情。PVC 作为典型的高能耗产品，与电解铝存在较大的相似性，而过去几年两者的景气度可谓"云泥之别"。但展 望未来，压制PVC景气度的因素已经发生转变，未来PVC资产价值有望迎来重估。 投资建议 东方证券认为，PVC行业相关标的主要包括中泰化学(002092.SZ)、新疆天业(600075.SH)、北元集团 (601568.SH)、鄂尔多斯(600295.SH)、天原股份(002386.SZ)、嘉化能源(600273.SH)、氯碱化工 (600618.SH)、万华化学(600309.SH)。这些企业大都属于PVC行业中竞争力较强的公司。但受到行业景 气度影响，目前这些公司PVC业务的盈利能力都较差，如新疆天业预告2025年全年盈利还处于小幅亏损 状态。如果PVC盈利水平能够达到上文预期，则这些企业的盈利都将得到明显提升。 东方证券主要观点如下： 需求结构是重估驱动力 PVC与电解铝都是典型高能耗产品，电力是最重要的生产要素。在2 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报（SH ）】 现货价格企稳，盘面价格震荡下跌 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-09 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 烧碱 :现货价格企稳，盘面价格震荡下跌 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周检修有所减少，产量有所上升。周度国内烧碱产量环比上涨0.3万吨至85万吨;（2）烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为87.4%，较上周环比-0.3%。 | | | | 分区域来看，周内华北、华中、华东氯碱负荷均有适当下降；西南四川部分负荷提升带动本地开工有所上移，其中山东周度产能利用率91.1%，环比-0.4%。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）氧化铝开工有所下滑，非铝需求疲软。（2）粘胶短纤行业产能利用率88.43%，较上周持平。本周国内粘胶装置平稳运行 ...

化工板块周五（2月6日）逆市猛攻。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）早盘低开后迅速拉 升，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到3.45%，而后持续高位震荡，尾盘略有回落，最终逆市收涨2.37%。 成份股方面，锂电、磷化工、石化等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至收盘，恩捷股份涨停，宏达股份、浙 江龙盛、天赐材料等大涨超6%，恒逸石化、荣盛石化、华峰化学等亦涨幅居前。 | | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 图8 | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 露加 九特 画球 工具 @ (2) > | | 44. TETF O | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DOG | | | | 516020Hz工ETF] 15:00 � 0.949 通款 0.022(2.37%) 均价 0.947 服交量 0.10PV 0.9491 | | | | | 2026/02/06 | 0 946 | | +0.022 +2.379 | | | | | | ...

氯碱日报 | 2026-02-06 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存28.8万吨（-0.2）；PVC社会库存59.3万吨（+0.8）；PVC电石法开工率80.37%（+0.39%）； PVC乙烯法开工率73.25%（+2.64%）；PVC开工率78.21%（+1.08%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量107.1万吨（+11.1）。 烧碱： PVC社会库存延续累库，下游开工下降 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5052元/吨（-103）；华东基差-202元/吨（+83）;华南基差-182元/吨（+33）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4850元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4870元/吨（-70）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2930元/吨（+0）；电石利润52元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-659元/吨（+86）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利103元/吨（+82）；PVC出口利润-3.6美元/吨（-11.9）。 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价1917元/吨（-61）；山东32%液碱基差-76元/吨（+58）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价589元/吨（-1 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 橡胶：预期降温 周四，国产全乳胶 16000 元/吨，环比上日下跌 200 元/吨；泰国 20 号混合胶 15180 元/吨，环比上日下跌 120 元/吨。 原料端：昨日泰国胶水报收 59.0 泰铢/公斤，环比上日上涨 0.2 泰铢/公斤，泰国杯胶价格报收 54.0 泰铢/公斤，环比上日上涨 0.2 泰铢/公斤；云南停割；海 南停割。 截至 2026 年 2 月 1 日，中国天然橡胶社会库存 128.1 万吨，环比增加 0.9 万吨，增幅0.7%。中国深色胶社会总库存为 85.3 万吨，增 0.7%。其中青岛现货库 存增 1.2%；云南降0.8%；越南 10#增 2%；NR 库存小计降 0.5%。中国浅色胶社会总库存为 42.8 万吨，环比增0.8%。其中老全乳胶环比降 0.5%，3L 环比增 5%，RU 库存小计增 1.4%。 观点：随着北半球冬季来临，全球即将进入低产季，也代表着单边价格的定价框架将从供需平衡的动态定价转换至存量库存的静态定价，在近期商品市场预 期全面走强的背景下，预计短期内 RU&NR&Sicom 仍将高位震荡。向后看，尽 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2026年2月5日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.19个百分点至78.93%，PVC开工 率小幅增加，处于近年同期中性水平。临近春节，PVC下游开工率环比下降0.11个百分点，下游主动 备货意愿偏低。出口方面，受取消出口退税影响，市场出现抢出口现象，加之美国面临寒潮冲击， PVC企业赶在春节假期前提前预售，国内出口签单继续环比走高，中国台湾台塑PVC 2月份出口船货报 价上涨40美元/吨。上周社会库存继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房 地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增 速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期偏低水平，房地产改 善仍需时间。氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，本周福建万 华、山东恒通仍在检修，PVC开工率变化不大，期货仓单仍处高位。2月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，临 近春节假期，下游采购积极性一般，社会库存继续增加。生态环境部表示将聚焦无汞催化剂研发攻 关 ...