氯碱日报 | 2025-12-30 下游跟进乏力，氯碱震荡偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4777元/吨（-55）；华东基差-277元/吨（+55）;华南基差-227元/吨（+55）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4500元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4550元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格750元/吨（+0）；电石价格2780元/吨（+0）；电石利润-110元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-760元/吨（+226）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-336元/吨（+134）；PVC出口利润-16.1美元/吨（-4.0）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.6万吨（-2.2）；PVC社会库存51.4万吨（+0.3）；PVC电石法开工率77.46%（+0.45%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.73%（-3.33%）；PVC开工率75.42%（-0.70%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量80.7万吨（+4.5）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2232元/吨（-36）；山东32%液碱基差-20元/吨（+30）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价708元/吨（-2）；山东5 ...

【现货消息】 12 月 29 日周末淄博市场走货不佳，低高度碱价格同步下调，其他地区虽挂牌价格变化不大，但成交也 有优惠空间。高度碱内外贸订单寥寥，部分企业也继续下调。 从基本面看，烧碱仍是高产量、高库存格局。需求端，氧化铝供应过剩格局短期仍未改变，减产预期压 制对烧碱的囤货，同时非铝下游面临季节性刚需下滑，出口承压，整体需求难有支撑。供应端看，冬季本身 是氯碱企业检修淡季，高开工情况下，烧碱供应压力较大，企业面临高库存的压力，上周烧碱去库，但春节 前仍面临降价去库的压力。 期货研究 烧碱：关注 1 月交割压力 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2232 710 2219 -13 2025 年 12 月 30 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【市场状况分析】 整体看，厂家不减产，烧碱反弹空间或有限。01 合约烧碱仓单量或较多，关注 1 月交割压力。 【趋势强度】 烧碱趋势强度：-1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如 ...

格隆汇12月29日丨亚星化学(600319.SH)公布，截至本公告披露日，公司以全资子公司潍坊亚星新材料 有限公司为主体投建的"4.5万吨/年高端新材料项目"与"500吨/年六氯环三磷腈和500吨/年苄索氯铵产业 化项目"已完成厂房建设、机器设备安装调试等各项准备工作，并符合试生产条件。"4.5万吨/年高端新 材料项目"及"500吨/年六氯环三磷腈和500吨/年苄索氯铵产业化项目"均已于近日投料试生产。 上述项目符合产业政策以及公司的发展规划，项目达产后将进一步丰富园区产业体系，提升公司持续经 营能力，增强企业抵御风险实力，为公司从传统氯碱化工向高端新材料产业转型奠定坚实基础。 ...

近日，据中国证券监督管理委员会网上办事服务平台信息显示，青岛证监局受理了青岛海湾化学股份有限公司提交的首次 公开发行股票并上市辅导备案的申请，备案时间为2025年12月23日，辅导机构为中信证券。 | | 全国一体化在线政务服务平台 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 中国证券监督管理委员会网上办事服务平台（试运行） | | | | | | 公开发行辅导公示 | | 辅导对象 | 辅导机构 | 备案时间 辅导状态 | 派出机构 | 报告类型 | 报告标题 | | 北京 | 天津 | 斯坦德检测集团股份有限公 | 中德证券有限责任公司 | 2025-03-05 | | | 辅导工作完成报告 关于斯坦德检测集 ... | | 河北 | II | | | | | | | | 内蒙古 | 辽宁 | 青岛海湾化学股份有限公司 中信证券股份有限公司 | | 2025-12-23 辅导备案 | 青岛证监局 | 辅导备案报告 | 关于青岛海湾化学。 | 据辅导备案报告披露，中信证券与海湾化学辅导协议签署时间为2025年 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the basic chemical industry, with significant growth in specific sub-sectors such as TDI and synthetic resins [1][2]. Core Insights - The TDI export volume reached a historical high in November, with 56,500 tons exported, significantly exceeding previous years' totals, and is projected to continue growing [2]. - The China Synthetic Resin Association has called for the regulation of the polyoxymethylene industry to address structural supply-demand imbalances, with projected production capacity reaching 1.51 million tons per year against a demand of only 950,000 tons by 2025 [2]. - The chemical sector overall has shown strong performance, with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rising by 5.41% this week, outperforming other indices [1][10]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.88%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 3.9%, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1][10]. - The top-performing sub-sectors in the chemical industry this week included membrane materials (12.18%), synthetic resins (8.23%), and phosphate fertilizers (6.5%) [1][13]. Sub-sector Summaries TDI - November TDI exports reached 56,500 tons, with a cumulative export of 506,300 tons from January to November, marking a 56.2% year-on-year increase [2]. - The average export price for TDI in October was $1,527 per ton, with a total export value of $67.1 million [2]. Polyoxymethylene - The industry faces challenges due to a projected capacity of 1.51 million tons against a demand of only 950,000 tons, leading to potential oversupply issues [2]. Tires - Domestic tire manufacturers are becoming increasingly competitive, with a focus on growth opportunities in the tire sector [2]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate chemical sector is expected to benefit from environmental policies limiting supply, coupled with increasing demand from the new energy sector [4]. Vitamins - The market for vitamins is experiencing supply disruptions, particularly for Vitamin A and E, due to unforeseen circumstances affecting production [5].

S BE KABHA 世界500强投资企业 E 贸期货有限公 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 JUI rts 199 热线 000 - 400 th ll 官 方 网 站 1.00 1513, 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn tm Prix | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 | ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | 投资咨询证:Z0015946 2025/12/25 从业资格证:F3054270 | | 指标 | | | 2025/12/24 2025/12/23 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | 山东 | 235 | 235 | 0 | | | 原盐 | 江苏 | 260 | 260 | 0 | | | | 西北 | 180 | 180 | 0 | | | 电石 | 山东 | 250 | 250 | 0 | | | | 内蒙 | 3415 | 3415 | 0 | | | | 山东 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 液 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - PVC is affected by macro - sentiment and rebounds, with a slight improvement in supply - demand. The overall supply decreases slightly, but the supply end is still abundant. The downstream开工 drops slightly, and the export orders remain resilient. The overall supply - demand improvement is limited. [3] - The caustic soda futures price rebounds due to the anti - "involution" sentiment, with a slight improvement in supply - demand. The spot price is mainly stable, and the demand for low - priced goods improves slightly. The inventory pressure in Shandong is partially relieved, but the national caustic soda inventory accumulates slightly. [4] Group 3: Summary of Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,738 yuan/ton (+147), the East China basis is - 298 yuan/ton (-67), and the South China basis is - 288 yuan/ton (-97) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quotes 4,440 yuan/ton (+80), and the South China calcium carbide method quotes 4,450 yuan/ton (+50) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,780 yuan/ton (-50), the calcium carbide profit is - 134 yuan/ton (-50), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 986 yuan/ton (+116), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 469 yuan/ton (+51), and the PVC export profit is - 0.9 US dollars/ton (+4.7) [1] - Inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory is 32.9 million tons (-1.6), the social PVC inventory is 51.1 million tons (-0.7), the PVC calcium carbide method operation rate is 77.01% (-2.12%), the PVC ethylene method operation rate is 74.06% (-2.61%), and the PVC operation rate is 76.12% (-2.27%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 76.2 million tons (+11.4) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,219 yuan/ton (+38), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 31 yuan/ton (-38) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 720 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,140 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,229 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 585.0 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 246.96 yuan/ton (+130.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 340.39 yuan/ton (+30.00) [2] - Inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 46.47 million tons (+0.76), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.51 million tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.50% (-1.70%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The alumina operation rate is 85.00% (-1.11%), the dyeing and printing operation rate in East China is 62.06% (-0.68%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.62% (+0.00%) [2] Group 4: Summary of Market Analysis PVC - Macro factors: The "15th Five - Year Plan" and the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market boost the demand expectation of PVC. The statements of the financial regulatory authorities and the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission strengthen the policy atmosphere [3] - Supply: One more enterprise conducts maintenance this week, and some calcium carbide method enterprises continue to reduce production. The overall supply decreases slightly, but the supply end is still abundant as all new PVC installations in 2025 have been put into production [3] - Demand: The downstream operation drops slightly, with pipes remaining stable and profiles and films decreasing. The downstream purchases at low prices, and the trading volume is light when the futures price rebounds. The export orders remain resilient before the double festivals [3] - Profit: The comprehensive chlor - alkali production profit at the upstream PVC end is repaired to some extent, but it is still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide price drops, resulting in a loss in production profit, and the semi - coke price also drops slightly, with the profit end remaining in a loss state [3] - Other factors: The high - level warehouse receipts put pressure on the PVC futures price. The news of overseas factory closures or bankruptcy applications supports the market sentiment to a certain extent [3] Caustic Soda - Market trend: The caustic soda futures price rebounds due to the anti - "involution" sentiment, with a slight improvement in supply - demand [4] - Supply: The supply - end operation rate drops slightly, but the overall operation is at a high level. The liquid chlorine price is still positive, and the high - level operation of caustic soda is maintained. However, the liquid chlorine price in Shandong is expected to drop in late December, and the cost support may strengthen [4] - Demand: The alumina factory operation is relatively stable, the purchase price is stable, and the non - aluminum demand weakens. The demand for low - priced goods improves marginally, but the supply - end pressure remains as there is no reduction in supply [4] Group 5: Summary of Strategies PVC - Single - side: Fluctuate strongly with the macro situation - Inter - delivery spread: Wait and see - Inter - commodity spread: None [6] Caustic Soda - Single - side: Fluctuate strongly with the macro situation - Inter - delivery spread: Wait and see - Inter - commodity spread: None [6]

Core Viewpoint - Chlor-alkali Chemical, a leading domestic caustic soda enterprise, is intensifying its focus on green chemistry by investing in a comprehensive waste salt utilization project, aiming to enhance its competitive edge in the industry and expand into the South China and Southeast Asia markets [1] Group 1: Investment and Project Details - Chlor-alkali Chemical plans to increase its investment in its wholly-owned subsidiary, Guangxi Huayi Chlor-alkali Chemical Co., by 893 million yuan to support a 2.975 billion yuan advanced materials waste salt utilization project [1] - The project will include production facilities for 300,000 tons/year of caustic soda, 250,000 tons/year of vinyl chloride, and 300,000 tons/year of polyvinyl chloride, with a construction period of 24 months and an expected return on investment of 7.84% [1][2] - The total investment of 2.975 billion yuan will be funded through the new capital injection and self-raised funds, with the registered capital of Guangxi Huayi Chlor-alkali increasing from 3.13575 billion yuan to 4.02839 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Circular Economy and Market Demand - The project aims to achieve waste resource utilization by using waste salt generated from acetaminophen and epoxy resin projects as raw materials for caustic soda production, forming a circular economy chain [2] - There is a strong demand for caustic soda in the South China region, particularly from the alumina, paper, and new energy industries, indicating a supply gap that the project aims to fill [2] Group 3: Strategic Positioning and Financial Performance - The project is a key part of Chlor-alkali Chemical's strategy to optimize its "Shanghai + Guangxi" dual-base layout, enhancing resource allocation and cost savings while expanding its operational scale [3] - As of September 2025, Guangxi Huayi Chlor-alkali's total assets were 7.690 billion yuan, with a debt ratio of 56.61%, indicating a reasonable financial position within the industry [3] - The company's revenue has shown a slight increase from 6.664 billion yuan in 2021 to 8.185 billion yuan in 2024, while net profit has fluctuated, dropping from 1.772 billion yuan to 787 million yuan during the same period [3] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - Despite facing operational challenges, Chlor-alkali Chemical has been generous in returning value to shareholders, distributing cash dividends totaling 2.297 billion yuan since its listing in 1992, with a high payout ratio of 3322.1% [4]

广西柳化氯碱有限公司主要领导表示，该项目是公司推进产业结构优化、延伸氯化新材料产业链的重要 工程，对企业提升综合竞争力和实现可持续发展具有重要意义。他希望设计单位立足项目整体定位，深 入开展方案论证，充分考虑安全环保、节能降耗和装置协同运行等因素，为后续工程建设和装置稳定运 行奠定坚实基础。 渤化工程主要领导表示，该项目是渤化工程与广西柳化氯碱有限公司深化务实合作的重要成果。渤化工 程将高度重视本项目实施，强化组织保障和技术支撑，建立高效顺畅的沟通协调机制，与业主单位密切 协作，确保项目设计工作有序推进。 12月16日，由天津渤化工程有限公司（简称 渤化工程）承接的广西柳化氯碱有限公司32万吨/年氯化新 材料产业集群项目一期工程设计开工会顺利召开，标志着该重大产业项目正式进入设计实施阶段。 据介绍，广西柳化氯碱有限公司32万吨/年氯化新材料产业集群项目位于鹿寨县工业园区，占地面积约 266.84亩，计划总投资27.16亿元。项目主要建设内容包括烧碱装置区、CPE/CPVC装置区、环氧氯丙烷 装置区、氯乙酸装置区、五氯化磷装置区、氯化聚丙烯装置区、氢能利用装置区等8个装置区，以及配 套公用工程和辅助设施。近日， ...

12月19日，天原股份涨3.80%，成交额1.15亿元。两融数据显示，当日天原股份获融资买入额1105.01万 元，融资偿还1101.38万元，融资净买入3.63万元。截至12月19日，天原股份融资融券余额合计2.77亿 元。 截至11月10日，天原股份股东户数5.81万，较上期增加13.92%；人均流通股22399股，较上期减少 12.22%。2025年1月-9月，天原股份实现营业收入84.90亿元，同比减少14.89%；归母净利润3169.34万 元，同比增长132.63%。 分红方面，天原股份A股上市后累计派现6.99亿元。近三年，累计派现2.02亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，天原股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第七大流 通股东，持股1082.45万股，相比上期增加56.49万股。 责任编辑：小浪快报 融资方面，天原股份当日融资买入1105.01万元。当前融资余额2.77亿元，占流通市值的3.90%，融资余 额低于近一年10%分位水平，处于低位。 融券方面，天原股份12月19日融券偿还0.00股，融券卖出2400.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额1.31 万元；融券余量2 ...