Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the palm oil industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The under - expected palm oil production in both Malaysia and Indonesia has supported the price increase of palm oil, but attention should be paid to whether the export demand can sustain the current price [4] - As of August 8, 2025, South American soybean prices strengthened on a weekly basis, while those in the US Gulf were weak, and rapeseed prices in many regions declined [7] - As of August 8, 2025, Argentine soybean oil prices dropped by over $50/ton on a weekly basis, and US Gulf soybean oil prices fell by $41/ton, while Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil prices rose slightly [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - side Information - In July, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 7.09% month - on - month to 1.812417 million tons, lower than the institutional estimate of 1.83 million tons. Exports increased by 3.82% month - on - month to 1.31 million tons, higher than the estimate of 1.3 million tons. End - of - July inventory reached 2.11 million tons, lower than the estimate of 2.23 - 2.25 million tons [3] - In July, rainfall in many parts of Malaysia was lower than normal, and the oil extraction rate of palm fruit decreased instead of increasing [3] Price Information - The price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Indonesian crude palm oil was - $10/ton, compared with $51.5/ton the previous week, lower than the historical average of $124.4/ton [19] - The price difference between Indian port soybean oil and crude palm oil was $28/ton, lower than $67/ton the previous week. The price difference between crude sunflower oil and crude palm oil was $18/ton, compared with $115/ton the previous week. The price difference between refined soybean oil and refined palm oil was $23/ton, compared with $54/ton the previous week [24] Purchase and Demand Information - There were no reports of palm oil purchases last week [26] - Last week, domestic buyers purchased 3000 tons each of Dubai rapeseed oil for the October/November shipment, and there were rumors that domestic oil mills purchased rapeseed for the September shipment [33] - Last week, far - month soybean oil transactions remained high, especially against the backdrop of domestic non - procurement of US soybeans [127] Profit and Margin Information - Subsidies decreased, and processing and blending losses increased [120] - European RME prices weakened, but European rapeseed oil prices declined more, and RME processing profit remained at the average level [123] - Palm oil and rapeseed oil basis were stable, while soybean oil basis weakened again [131] Balance Sheet Information - The report provides monthly balance sheets for various oils, including overall oils, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, covering data from 2024 to 2025, showing information on beginning inventory, production, imports, total supply, exports, demand, end - inventory, inventory changes, inventory - to - consumption ratios, and surplus amounts [146]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 31 points to close at 4,245 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.72%; the palm oil 09 contract fell 26 points to close at 8,910 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.29%; the soybean oil 09 contract rose 130 points to close at 8,274 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.60%; the rapeseed oil 09 contract rose 67 points to close at 9,524 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 2.02 points to close at 53.9 cents/pound, a decline of 3.61%; the ICE canola active contract fell 17 points to close at 682.9 Canadian dollars/ton, a decline of 2.43% [4][7]. - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated narrowly last week with internal differentiation. Palm oil declined slightly from its high mainly due to the cooling of bullish sentiment in the commodity market, coupled with the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil production in July, weaker export demand month-on-month, and continued inventory build-up, which pressured prices. Soybean oil was relatively strong as India's low vegetable oil inventory may lead to imports of Chinese soybean oil, and market purchasing sentiment improved with increased trading volume during the week. The decline of US soybean oil was mainly dragged down by the fall of US soybeans [4][7]. - Macroeconomically, the US non-farm payrolls in July were 73,000, lower than market expectations, and the employment data for the previous two months was significantly revised downwards. The expectation of recession pricing increased, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in September heated up. The US stock market tumbled, the US bond price strengthened, and the US dollar index closed down. Oil prices rose and then fell last week. Fundamentally, the market expects the Malaysian palm oil inventory to continue to increase in July due to the increasing production and weak export demand. Attention should be paid to the guidance given by the report. In the short term, palm oil may fluctuate and adjust [4][7][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main contract fell 2.02 points to 53.9 cents/pound, a decline of 3.61%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 31 points to 4,245 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.72%; the DCE palm oil contract fell 26 points to 8,910 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.29%; the DCE soybean oil contract rose 130 points to 8,274 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.60%; the CZCE rapeseed oil contract rose 67 points to 9,524 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71%. The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 156 yuan/ton to -636 yuan/ton, and the futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil increased by 93 yuan/ton to 614 yuan/ton. The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong, fell 80 yuan/ton to 8,920 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.89%; the spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 20 yuan/ton to 8,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.24%; the spot price of imported third-grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, rose 30 yuan/ton to 9,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated narrowly last week with internal differentiation. Palm oil declined slightly from its high mainly due to the cooling of bullish sentiment in the commodity market, coupled with the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil production in July, weaker export demand month-on-month, and continued inventory build-up, which pressured prices. Soybean oil was relatively strong as India's low vegetable oil inventory may lead to imports of Chinese soybean oil, and market purchasing sentiment improved with increased trading volume during the week. The decline of US soybean oil was mainly dragged down by the fall of US soybeans [7]. - In July 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 7.19%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and palm oil production increased by 7.07%. From July 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 6.71% - 9.58% compared to the same period last month according to different survey agencies [8]. - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per metric ton, higher than $877.89 in July, which means the export tax will increase from $52 per ton in July to $74 per ton in August. In addition to the export tax, Indonesia also levies a 10% special tax on CPO exports, which remains the same as last month [8][9]. - From January to June 2025, Indonesia exported 11 million metric tons of CPO and refined palm oil, a 2.69% increase compared to the same period last year. The average export price of palm oil in the first half of this year increased by 22.2% year-on-year [9]. - As of the week ending July 25, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.3618 million tons, an increase of 0.16 million tons from last week and 0.3449 million tons from the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.0881 million tons, a decrease of 0.0037 million tons from last week and 0.0031 million tons from the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 0.6155 million tons, an increase of 0.0241 million tons from last week and 0.1088 million tons from the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 0.6582 million tons, an increase of 0.0016 million tons from last week and 0.3449 million tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 49,300 tons, compared with 15,840 tons in the previous week; the daily average trading volume of palm oil was 526 tons, compared with 440 tons in the previous week [9]. Industry News - The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement to advance the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The EU agreed to impose zero tariffs on Indonesian palm oil [11]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports to India in 2025 are expected to exceed 500,000 tons, higher than 480,000 tons in 2024. Indonesia is expected to export 100,000 germinated palm seeds to India this year to support India's plan to expand the oil palm planting area to 1 million hectares by 2025 - 2026 [11]. - From January to May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US increased by 51.8% year-on-year, from 61,000 tons in the same period last year to 93,000 tons [12]. - When the free trade agreement between Indonesia and the EU is approved, the EU will grant zero-tariff treatment to an annual export quota of 1 million tons of Indonesian CPO. The EU and Indonesia are expected to officially sign the free trade agreement in September and obtain approval from their respective legislative bodies next year. If the Indonesian CPO exported to the EU exceeds the 1 million - ton quota, an additional 3% tariff will be imposed [12][13]. Related Charts - The report provides charts showing the trends of the main contracts of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, the futures price indices of the three major oils, the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the basis of palm oil and soybean oil, the price spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, the import profit of palm oil, and the monthly production, exports, and inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as the commercial inventory of domestic oils and fats [15][17][20][23][25][27][33][35][41][46].

Group 1 - In May 2025, China's palm oil imports amounted to 180,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.4% [1] - The import value for palm oil in May 2025 was $19 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [1] - The data is sourced from Chinese customs and organized by Zhiyan Consulting [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View - The high commercial inventory of soybean oil is putting pressure on the overall oil market, causing it to fluctuate [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,970 yuan/ton, a change of +24 yuan or +0.27% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,226 yuan/ton, a change of +106 yuan or +1.31% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,492 yuan/ton, a change of +86 yuan or +0.91% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,940 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan or +0.22%, with a spot basis of P09 + -30 yuan, a change of -4 yuan [1] - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,350 yuan/ton, a change of +120 yuan or +1.46%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 124 yuan, a change of +14 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,580 yuan/ton, a change of +80 yuan or +0.84%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 88 yuan, a change of -6 yuan [1] Market News - India has become the largest importer of Malaysian oil palm germinated seeds and the largest export market for Malaysian palm oil in 2024, importing 3.03 million tons, accounting for 17.9% of Malaysia's total palm oil exports. India aims to expand its oil palm planting area to 1 million hectares by 2025 - 26 and achieve a palm oil production target of 2.8 million tons by 2029 - 30 [2] - The C&F prices of US Gulf, US West, and Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) decreased by 2, 2, and 3 dollars/ton respectively. The import soybean premium quotes from the Mexican Gulf and US West Coast (September shipment) remained flat, while that from Brazilian ports increased by 1 cent/bushel [2] - The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (August and October shipments) remained flat. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed oil (August and October shipments) remained flat, while the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed (October and December shipments) increased by 2 dollars/ton [2] Inventory - As of July 25, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.0881 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.34%, but the inventory pressure is still large. There is a B50 expectation in the palm oil market, but the implementation time is uncertain, and the pattern of loose palm oil supply cannot be changed in the short term [3] Group 4: Figures - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, production, inventory, and trading volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The increase in palm oil production and decline in exports have constrained its market price performance. However, Indonesia's high biodiesel consumption and sufficient tax revenue for subsidies make Malaysian palm oil exports more competitive. Recently, the palm oil market has generally maintained a strong upward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents **Futures Market** - The closing price of the palm oil futures main contract is 8,926 yuan/ton, and the trading volume of the active contract is 492,920 lots. The 9 - 1 spread is -16,949 yuan/ton, and the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 58,164 lots, a decrease of 6,469 lots [2]. - The settlement price of BMD crude palm oil futures is 4,172 Malaysian ringgit/ton, a decrease of 89 ringgit/ton. The settlement price of NYMEX light crude oil futures is $65.95/barrel, a decrease of $0.1/barrel [2]. **Spot Price** - The spot prices of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 9,000 yuan/ton, 9,100 yuan/ton, and 9,150 yuan/ton respectively, all increasing by 30 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil is $1,040/ton, a decrease of $15/ton, and the CNF price is $1,078/ton, also a decrease of $15/ton [2]. - The basis of the palm oil main contract is 74 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton [2]. **Up - stream Situation** - Malaysia's monthly palm oil production is 1,685,962 tons, an increase of 298,531 tons; exports are 1,102,266 tons, an increase of 96,719 tons; and the ending inventory is 1,865,537 tons, an increase of 302,720 tons [2]. - Indonesia's monthly palm oil production is 4.9 million tons, exports are 2.88 million tons, and the inventory is 3.05 million tons, an increase of 1.01 million tons [2]. - The FOB price spread between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil is $96.2/ton, an increase of $39.84/ton. The daily export volume data from ITS and SGS show a significant decline [2]. **Industry Situation** - The weekly palm oil inventory is 563,000 tons, an increase of 27,900 tons. The monthly import volume of palm oil (customs statistics) is 1.6 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons [2]. - The national daily soybean oil port inventory is 932,000 tons, and the weekly rapeseed oil port inventory is 685,600 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons [2]. - The import cost of Malaysian palm oil is 9,244.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 141.04 yuan/ton. The import profit is -244.29 yuan/ton, an increase of 171.04 yuan/ton [2]. - The ex - factory prices of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang and fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Xiamen are 8,220 yuan/ton and 9,520 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 40 yuan/ton and 120 yuan/ton [2]. - The price spread between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is -780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton, and the price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton [2]. **Down - stream Situation** - Malaysia's annual food and industrial consumption of palm oil are 870,000 tons and 3.1 million tons respectively, with an increase of 5,000 tons in food consumption and no change in industrial consumption [2]. - Indonesia's annual food and industrial consumption of palm oil are 7.4 million tons and 13.75 million tons respectively, with increases of 200,000 tons and 500,000 tons [2]. - China's annual food and industrial consumption of palm oil are 3.6 million tons and 2.3 million tons respectively, with a decrease of 100,000 tons in food consumption and no change in industrial consumption [2]. **Option Market** - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for palm oil is 20.06%, an increase of 1.51% and 1.5% respectively. The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities are 11.64% and 18.7% respectively, with decreases of 3.34% and 0.1% [2]. **Industry News** - According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 6.19% month - on - month, with the FFB yield increasing by 7.03% and the OER decreasing by 0.16% [2]. - According to AmSpec data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 were 740,394 tons, a 7.3% decrease compared to the same period in June. According to ITS data, exports were 817,755 tons, a 3.5% decrease, with exports to China decreasing by 7,000 tons [2].

Group 1 - The strong demand for palm oil in the Indian market is a key factor driving the rise in Malaysian palm oil futures prices, with India expected to import over 800,000 tons of palm oil in June [1] - In May, India's palm oil imports reached 660,000 tons, a 12% increase compared to the previous month, indicating a positive trend in purchasing activity [1] - Indian buyers are strategically stockpiling palm oil due to relatively low international prices, with some refineries already pre-booking shipments for July [1] Group 2 - The robust demand from India is seen as a timely boost for the market, with replenishment needs post-Ramadan and seasonal consumption growth further driving palm oil prices up [3] - India's palm oil inventory at ports has dropped to a three-month low of 280,000 tons, increasing the urgency for importers to ramp up purchases [3] - Despite the optimistic outlook, Malaysian palm oil prices need to overcome challenges such as Indonesia's potential reintroduction of export taxes and fluctuations in international soybean oil prices and crude oil markets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is experiencing sideways fluctuations, with recent high prices deterring Indian buyers despite a recovery in procurement activity [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Palm oil prices are currently stable, showing no significant upward or downward trends [1] - Indian buyers have recently resumed purchasing but are being discouraged by elevated prices [1] - Analysts suggest that there is still support for prices at lower levels, indicating potential resilience in the market [1]

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Palm Oil: Initial Pricing of Bearish Factors, Focus on Future Production; Soybean Oil: Sino-US Relations Disturbance, Focus on New US Soybean Crop Suspense" and was released on June 8, 2025 [1][2] 2. Previous Week's View and Logic Palm Oil - The bearish impact of Malaysia's unexpected production increase from April to May was gradually digested by the market. In the short term, there were no obvious contradictions, and it mainly fluctuated following the oil and fat sector affected by crude oil, China-Canada, and Sino-US relations. The palm oil 09 contract rose 0.62% last week [2] Soybean Oil - The driving force in the soybean market was not obvious, and supply issues were downplayed. However, the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents in the second half of the week brought bullish sentiment to the US soybean market, leading to a strong rebound in soybean oil and soybean meal. The soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.31% last week [2] 3. This Week's View and Logic Palm Oil - Malaysia's production recovery from April to May will bring forward a 2 million - ton inventory level. Indonesia's inventory is expected to accumulate to over 3 million tons in April, so the inventory in the second quarter in Indonesia and Malaysia may return to the normal level of 5.5 million tons. There is a price bubble in US soybean oil above 50 cents, so the origin's quotation may loosen in the third quarter [3] - Although it is judged that there is still un - released pressure in the fundamentals, there is strong support during the decline. Due to macro - allocation, oil hedging, and early layout for the second half of the year, investors' long - allocation of palm oil means that the current production increase in Malaysia from April to May cannot push the palm oil price down [3] - After the market has fully priced in the previous production increase, further bearish factors need to be seen, such as less - than - expected purchases by China and India in July or Malaysia's production in June - July challenging historical highs. Malaysia's inventory at the end of May is expected to reach over 2 million tons [3] - Indonesia's production in March increased by 16% month - on - month. If the production continues to recover significantly from April to May, it will help release the seasonal pressure. Recently, Indonesia's refining profit has increased, and export demand has recovered, but the Indonesia - Malaysia price difference has not improved significantly, and the supply is gradually widening [3] - The export taxes of crude palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia are both reduced in June, so the importing regions' import sentiment will improve in June. India's palm oil purchases in May - June reached over 1.5 million tons, and the consumption expectation in the production increase season is guaranteed. China's palm oil purchases for the July shipment are relatively small. If the monthly average purchase cannot reach 350,000 tons, the origin will face inventory pressure again in the third quarter [3] - The market's pricing expectation for palm oil still comes from the production recovery situation. The bullish factors such as the digestion of Malaysia's previous production increase, the improvement of export in June, and the possible decline in production in June - July attract long - positions to layout in advance. The further downward momentum of palm oil prices comes from continuous over - expected inventory accumulation. The 9 - 1 spread can be intervened when it enters a low - valuation range, and the 7 - 9 spread can be short - sold at high levels [3] Soybean Oil - There is a price bubble in US soybean oil above 50 cents per pound. If it does not find a direction soon, it will be difficult for international oil and fat prices to break through. 45Z and SRE mainly increase fluctuations, and RVO is needed to determine its value. It is considered that the probability of the final RVO figure being above 5.25 billion gallons is small, and the demand boost compared with 2024 will be less than 500,000 tons [5] - In terms of international oil and fat supply, attention should be paid to when the high soybean - palm oil price difference will reflect the export pressure of international soybean oil. The upward performance of US soybean oil may be restricted by the actual situation. If the operating rate remains at the low level in March, the inventory will become neutral by July [5] - The discount of Brazilian soybeans has widened compared with that of US soybeans, indicating less selling pressure from farmers, which will support the soybean sector. The tight new - crop balance sheet in the US does not allow much room for weather deterioration. Attention should be paid to weather speculation and the possibility of an over - estimated trend yield, as well as the expected change in the palm oil inventory inflection point and more certainty in the US soybean oil biodiesel policy [5] 4. Overall View - For palm oil, the previous bearish factors of Malaysia's production increase have been gradually digested, exports from the origin are expected to improve in June, and the risk of production decline in June - July attracts long - positions to layout in advance. The further downward momentum of palm oil prices comes from continuous over - expected inventory accumulation. The 9 - 1 spread can be intervened when it enters a low - valuation range, and the 7 - 9 spread can be short - sold at high levels. Attention should be paid to the Indonesia - Malaysia price difference and the inventory pressure implied by the origin's export sentiment [6] - For soybean oil, there is a price bubble in US soybean oil above 50 cents per pound. If it does not find a direction soon, it will be difficult for international oil and fat prices to break through. The tight new - crop balance sheet in the US does not allow much room for weather deterioration. Attention should be paid to weather speculation and the possibility of an over - estimated trend yield, and the impact of Sino - US relations on the domestic soybean market. Also, observe the expected change in the palm oil inventory inflection point and more certainty in the US soybean oil biodiesel policy [6] 5. Market Data Futures Price and Volume - Palm oil main - continuous contract: opened at 8,100 yuan/ton, reached a high of 8,250 yuan/ton, a low of 8,064 yuan/ton, and closed at 8,110 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The trading volume was 2,478,112 lots, a decrease of 604,662 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 419,221 lots, an increase of 33,611 lots [8] - Soybean oil main - continuous contract: opened at 7,612 yuan/ton, reached a high of 7,748 yuan/ton, a low of 7,612 yuan/ton, and closed at 7,738 yuan/ton, up 1.31%. The trading volume was 3,082,774 lots, a decrease of 400,894 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 572,787 lots, a decrease of 42,275 lots [8] Spread and Basis - The vegetable - soybean oil 09 spread was 1,402 yuan/ton, down 18.01% from last week; the soybean - palm oil 09 spread was - 372 yuan/ton, up 11.85% [8] - The palm oil (South China) basis to the 09 contract was 380 yuan/ton; the soybean oil (Jiangsu) basis declined [14] Inventory - related - Malaysia's palm oil production in May is expected to reach a historical high in the same period, and the inventory is expected to continue to rise. Indonesia's inventory in the second quarter is expected to rise rapidly [10][13] - The ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 were 1,320,914 tons, an increase of 17.9% compared with the same period last month [13]

Group 1 - The core argument of the article emphasizes the bullish narrative surrounding palm oil, driven by factors such as aging tree structures, marginal reduction in mature areas, ongoing pest issues, and flooding that limits harvesting efficiency [1] - New bullish logic includes Indonesia's strong support for B40 and potential progression towards B50 within five years, significant increases in refining capacity, and changes in ownership of leading plantations affecting management efficiency and output [1][2] - Indonesia's palm oil industry contributes 3.5% to the national GDP, creates 4.2 million jobs, and supports 16 million lives through its supply chain [2] Group 2 - The March MPOB report indicates that Malaysia's palm oil production reached 1.3872 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 16.76%, surpassing market expectations [6] - The increase in production is attributed to improved climate conditions and higher yields, although the extraction rate remains low, indicating quality constraints [6] - There are concerns regarding the accuracy of domestic consumption data, with March's consumption reported at 453,100 tons, significantly deviating from historical averages [10][12] Group 3 - The article discusses the potential for palm oil to regain market share, with forecasts suggesting a year-on-year increase in global palm oil exports by at least 0.8 million tons from April to September 2025 [19] - The price dynamics show that palm oil prices have fallen while canola oil prices have risen, reflecting current supply-demand conditions in Europe [22] - The article highlights the challenges in rebuilding global canola oil trade flows, with low inventories in Europe expected to persist for at least one quarter [25]

棕榈油日报 撰写品种：棕榈油 撰写时间 2025.4.2 回顾周期：日度 研究员：漆建华 咨询证号（Z0017731） 4 月 1 日，BMD 马棕油因开斋节休市，美豆油上涨导致连棕跟涨，P2505 报收 9146 元/吨，较结算价涨 0.77%；成交 92.1 万手，持仓 43.07 万手。棕榈油 05-09 价 差 656 元/吨，豆棕主力期价差-1250 元/吨，菜棕主力期价差 157 元/吨。 图1：马棕油、连棕油期货主力走势 图2：国内三大油脂期货指数 图片来源：博易大师、WIND 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 一、行情回顾 4 月 1 日，各港口棕榈油现货报 9710-9810 元/吨，较前一日价格整体涨 50 元/ 吨；进口利润-382.76 元/吨，均价与 P2505 基差 394 元/吨；豆棕现货价差- 1495.26 元/吨。 图 3：全国各港口棕榈油报价 图 4:进口成本及现货均价 国内棕榈油进口利润持续亏损，5 月部分船只取消采购订单，4 月到港量预估 20 万吨；上周国内油脂库存皆降，其中棕榈 ...