Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities highlights the strong performance of the electronic industry in the first quarter, driven by AI infrastructure construction and related hardware, indicating a positive outlook for the integration of AI into the electronic ecosystem and the ongoing hardware updates and iterations [1] Group 1: AI Infrastructure and Hardware - The AI infrastructure construction has led to high growth in related hardware sectors such as AI computing power, edge-side SoC, and PCB [1] - The integration of AI is expected to reshape the electronic industry ecosystem, promoting continuous updates and iterations of related hardware [1] Group 2: Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics sector has shown resilience during the off-season, supported by national subsidy policies, with the Apple supply chain demonstrating stable growth [1] - Future innovations in the industry, including liquid metal, AI glasses, and optical innovations, are anticipated to further enhance the performance of the related supply chain [1] Group 3: Components Sector - The components sector experienced strong demand in the first quarter due to downstream policy subsidies, maintaining stability into the second quarter [1] - The overall supply-demand balance remains stable for components such as panels, LEDs, and passive components, with leading companies demonstrating robust operations [1]

Core Points - The joint statement from the US-China Geneva trade talks indicates a significant reduction in tariffs, with the US committing to cancel 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and modify 34% of reciprocal tariffs, while China will also cancel 91% of its counter-tariffs on US goods [1] - The announcement is expected to boost confidence among export enterprises and stabilize the global market, with industries such as high-end manufacturing, agriculture, green energy, electronics, machinery, and textiles anticipated to benefit [1][3] Industry Impact - The trade talks signal positive developments for global supply chains and industrial stability, providing valuable confidence for businesses [3] - Companies in the textile and apparel sectors, particularly those exporting to the US, are expected to leverage their advantages to enhance supply chain capabilities and compete in international markets [3] - The reduction in tariffs is projected to lower marginal costs for foreign trade enterprises, potentially leading to a rebound in export orders in the second quarter [4] - High-end manufacturing and green energy sectors are likely to see substantial benefits, with reduced costs for semiconductor equipment and materials aiding domestic manufacturing upgrades [4] - The green energy industry, particularly in components for electric vehicles and energy storage, is expected to experience rapid growth due to lower import costs [4] Integration of Domestic and Foreign Trade - The positive progress in US-China tariff negotiations is anticipated to accelerate the integration of domestic and foreign trade, encouraging more Chinese companies to engage in exports [5] - The easing of trade tensions is expected to enhance the resilience and efficiency of supply chains, with new logistics models and cross-border e-commerce gaining traction [6] - A stable trade relationship will support long-term investment planning in cross-border business [5]

海外策略：美国经济平稳，美联储按兵不动 美国经济趋势上保持平稳，未来可能受到中美贸易谈判超预期支撑。 一是经济稳步扩张。 亚特兰大联储 GDPNOW模型预测Q2实际GDP年化增速达到2.3%，延续了Q1的平稳增长态势，其中私人消费增速达到3.3%， 剔除库存后的私人投资增速达到3.6%，结构上仅地产及建筑投资在长端利率上行压制下小幅萎缩，其余分项 均在扩张。 二是就业依然稳健。 4月美国新增非农就业人数（17.7万）超出市场预期，失业率稳定在4.2%，已 于4.0-4.2%区间震荡一年之久，周频首次申领失业金人数22.8万，较前值回落1.3万。值得注意的是，当前职位 空缺率（4.3%）已经降至本轮周期最低点，随着空缺职位的消耗，失业率可能向上突破前期箱体。中美贸易 谈判进展超预期，叠加"硬数据"持续给力，美国经济或已在预期层面越过谷底。 美联储于5月议息会议按兵不动，且未提供任何前瞻指引，继续强调政策路径将取决于未来形势。市场对美联 储降息的预期持续降温，年内降息预期收敛至3次合计75bp，首次降息时点7月。考虑到失业率的潜在上行趋 势，以及长端利率的震荡区间，我们认为当前市场预期基本理性。 由于美国经济、就 ...

未来出口节奏如何判断？ 一方面， 中美虽将有谈判，但我们认为短期达成有利协议的可能性不大，特朗普的目的在于稳住国内。综合 来看，出口未来趋势仍将整体回落，至年中或将探底。届时美国通胀影响显现，叠加经济继续放缓，其国内传导更有可能逼迫特朗普 让步。 另一方面， 即便出口开启下行区间，其对应的组装进口零部件等需求也将同步下降，则贸易差额放缓幅度或更慢一些，净出口 对于经济增长的拖累也将更小。 出口有所回落，但韧性较强。 按美元计价，2025年4月我国出口同比增速录得8.1%，较3月回落超4个百分点，高于市场预期。外部困 难加大，但环比增速处历年同期中位水平，指向出口韧性较强，主要来自抢转口以及部分商品关税豁免。 一方面， 虽对美国直接出口 回落明显，但对东盟等转口国出口大幅上行，结合美进口集装箱中枢仍居高位，指向"抢转口"对冲规模不小。 另一方面， 美国4月中 旬豁免来自中国超两成商品的出口关税。 数量拉动下降，价格拖累收窄。 按数量和价格因素拆解十余种代表性商品的出口增速，我们发现，4月代表性商品出口增速中，受关 税和高基数等因素影响，数量拉动作用下降，而价格拖累有所收窄。 分品类来看， 电子和劳动密集型数量拉 ...

宏观｜五一假期期间的经济线索 5月2日，中国商务部表示正在评估与美国启动贸易谈判的可能性，较此前立场有所软 化；美日第二轮谈判依然有较大分歧，我们认为可能会降低美国对华要价底气。中美 关系缓和预期推动离岸人民币汇率升值到7.21，为5个月多来最高值。前期中国出口 企业囤积了大量未结汇美元，若这些贸易商集中结汇，或可持续支撑人民币升值。国 内五一假期出游人次再创新高，"量优于价"的特征或仍然存在，入境游、县域游、长 线游高增长为数据中三大结构性亮点。 风险因素：国内政策落地或实施效果不及预期；外需恢复不及预期；地缘政治风险恶 化；美国加征关税变化超预期；海外经济衰退超预期。 裘翔｜中信证券首席A股策略师 S1010518080002 策略聚焦｜交易事实，而非预期 关税战至今，全球主流风险资产价格基本都回到原点，表明"交易事实，而非预期"应 该是贸易战之下应对不确定性的第一原则；展望5月，"为签而签"可能成为海外叙事 逻辑，我们预计风险偏好还有回升空间，A股将继续呈现风偏回暖、主题轮动的特 征，以低机构持仓的主题型交易机会为主；但从经济层面来看，真实的影响已经悄然 发生，我们预计中美经济在二季度尾声可能会面临新的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luxshare Precision (002475) [2][5] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance met expectations, with a revenue of 268.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.91%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.37 billion yuan, up 22.03% year-on-year [3][5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 61.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 17.90%, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 3.04 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.17% increase year-on-year [3][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the revenue breakdown by business segments includes consumer electronics at 224.09 billion yuan, communications at 18.36 billion yuan, automotive at 13.76 billion yuan, and computers at 9.00 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 13.65%, 26.29%, 48.69%, and 20.15% [5][6] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 10.41%, a decrease of 1.17 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 5.42%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points [5][6] Future Guidance - The company expects a stable growth in H1 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders between 6.48 billion and 6.75 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% to 25% [5][6] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 2.27 yuan and 2.80 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14 and 11 times [5][6] Operational Resilience - The company has a global delivery capability with manufacturing bases in multiple countries, allowing for flexible resource allocation and customized solutions, which helps mitigate risks from global trade uncertainties [5][6]

Group 1: Government Work Report Insights - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, which aligns with expectations, while the CPI target is lowered to about 2%, indicating a greater focus on price stability [1] - Monetary policy is expected to continue easing, with potential interest rate cuts and a focus on the healthy development of the real estate and stock markets [1] - Fiscal policy shows a commitment to counter-cyclical adjustments, with an increased deficit ratio and higher funding limits compared to 2024, aimed at boosting consumption and investment [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Analysis - In the real estate sector, policies aim to stabilize asset prices and prevent debt defaults among property companies, with expectations for local government land sales to recover [4] - The banking sector is anticipated to benefit from a more proactive macroeconomic policy environment, which could lead to a stable operational backdrop for banks [5] - The healthcare sector is focusing on strengthening basic medical services and promoting coordinated development among healthcare, insurance, and pharmaceuticals [6] Group 3: Market Confidence and Investment Opportunities - The A-share market is expected to see a restoration of confidence, particularly in technology and core assets, driven by policies promoting innovation and supply-side reforms [3] - The infrastructure sector is likely to see a boost from increased local government decision-making power and a focus on new infrastructure projects [4] - The electronics sector is projected to perform well, with a shift towards companies with strong first-quarter earnings and clear industry trends [20] Group 4: Emerging Trends and Risks - The report highlights the importance of fostering new industries such as artificial intelligence and low-altitude economy, suggesting a focus on policy measures that encourage these sectors [1] - The potential for increased competition and risks in the real estate market, including unexpected declines in sales and prices, is noted [4] - The healthcare industry faces risks related to procurement policies and the financing environment for biopharmaceutical companies [6]