Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating weakly [3] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The glass market is affected by speculative demand and downstream restocking, with slight inventory reduction but limited overall changes. The glass price is volatile due to macro policies, while the fundamentals still suppress the price. Attention should be paid to macro policies and peak-season demand [1]. - The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash persists. With the ignition of Yuanxing Phase II, the supply pressure will increase. Focus on whether the speculative demand for soda ash weakens, and monitor new capacity production progress and inventory changes [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - This week, the glass main contract 2601 oscillated strongly, closing at 1,252 yuan/ton on Friday, with a 2.88% increase. The weekly average price of the domestic float glass market was 1,178 yuan/ton, a 14.9 - yuan/ton increase from the previous week [1][5]. - This week, the soda ash main contract 2601 oscillated and consolidated, closing at 1,293 yuan/ton on Friday, with a 1.93% decrease. The downstream demand for soda ash was stable, mainly for pre - holiday rigid restocking [1][5]. Supply - This week, the float glass output was 1.1242 million tons, a 0.27% increase from the previous week. The enterprise operating rate was 76.01%, unchanged from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.33%, a 0.25% increase from the previous week [1][17]. - This week, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 89.12%, a 3.59% increase from the previous week; the output was 776,900 tons, a 4.19% increase from the previous week [2][17]. Demand - This week, the glass trading sentiment was boosted by macro policies. The futures and spot markets resonated, with downstream prices rising and purchasing enthusiasm increasing. There was pre - holiday rigid restocking, and the production - sales ratio improved [1][19]. - This week, the downstream of soda ash mainly engaged in pre - holiday rigid restocking. The photovoltaic glass and float glass operations were stable, with no obvious changes in production lines [2][19]. Inventory - This week, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million heavy boxes, a 2.55% decrease from the previous week, indicating inventory reduction [1][23]. - This week, the inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6515 million tons, a 5.93% decrease from the previous week, showing inventory reduction [2][23].

玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/26 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 宏观预期和产业逻辑的矛盾；远月有政策预期和成本抬升预期，暂无法证伪；近端现实一般，需要观察旺季下中游的去 库能力 【利多解读】 成本仍保留抬升预期，影响远月定价；政策预期尚无法完全排除，供应端或需求侧故事或被反复交易 【利空解读】 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 1000-1400 | 32.42% | 83.6% | | 纯碱 | 1100-1500 | 22.39% | 25.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表 | | 行 为 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导 | | | | | | （%） | ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The 01 contract range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas. If the raw material output is smooth, the upper edge of the range should adopt a short - selling strategy; if the raw material output is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to continue to run within the range [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 25th, the price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the full - milk basis was - 820 yuan/ton, up 12.20%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 14,850 yuan/ton. The price of cup rubber in the international market increased by 0.10 Thai baht/kg, and the price of glue decreased by 0.50 Thai baht/kg [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, up 50.00% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was 55 yuan/ton, down 26.67%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 40 yuan/ton, up 11.11% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, Thailand's production was 421,600 tons, up 1.61%; Indonesia's production was 197,500 tons, up 12.09%; India's production was 45,000 tons, down 2.17%; China's production was 101,300 tons, down 1.30%. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.58%, down 0.08%; the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires was 65.72%, up 0.06%. In August, domestic tire production was 10,295,400 tons, up 9.10%, and tire export volume was 63,010,000 pieces, down 5.46%. In July, the total import volume of natural rubber was 474,800 tons, up 2.47%. In August, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 660,000 tons, up 4.76% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.95%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 3.07%. The inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao increased, and the outbound rate decreased [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint Currently, logs are in a volatile pattern, with a position volume of only about 12,000 lots, and the market maintains a narrow - range oscillation around 800. As the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" approach, follow - up attention should be paid to whether the shipment volume improves significantly after entering the seasonal peak season. In the current "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern, the strategy suggests seizing opportunities to go long at low prices [2]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26th, the 2511 log contract closed at 807.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 4.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The spot price of the benchmark delivery product remained unchanged, with the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Shandong being 750 yuan/cubic meter and that in Jiangsu being 770 yuan/cubic meter [2]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.119, and the import theoretical cost was 799.14 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.11 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day [2]. - **Supply**: In August, the port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 3.87%, and the number of ships decreased by 6.38%. The main port inventory in China decreased by 3.31% week - on - week [2]. - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume decreased by 5% week - on - week, with the average daily outbound volume in Shandong decreasing by 11% and that in Jiangsu increasing by 4% [2]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint Fundamentally, the supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. At the same time, the inventory in the downstream component segment is high, and the price has loosened. It is expected that before the National Day holiday, the polysilicon price will mainly remain range - bound, with a possible fluctuation range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to whether the national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry stockpiling will have specific schedules and implementation details, as well as the actual operating rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and track the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 25th, the average price of N - type re -投料 was 52,550 yuan/ton, up 0.10%; the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50,500 yuan/ton, up 2.02%; the N - type material basis (average price) was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 5.80% [3]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price was 21,365 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 91.80%, and the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract increased by 3.34% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly, the silicon wafer production was 13.78 GW, down 1.01%; the polysilicon production was 31,100 tons, up 0.32%. Monthly, the polysilicon production was 131,700 tons, up 23.31%; the polysilicon import volume was 100 tons, down 9.63%; the polysilicon export volume was 300 tons, up 40.12% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory was 226,000 tons, up 10.78%; the silicon wafer inventory was 16.23 GW, down 3.79%; the polysilicon warehouse receipt was 7,880 lots, up 0.38% [3]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint From a fundamental perspective, from September to October, as the supply of industrial silicon increases, the balance gradually turns to a loose state. The expectation of batch production cuts by silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - dry water period is at the end of October, so the expected loose balance at the supply peak in October is more obvious and narrows again in November. At the same time, the cost increase during the flat - dry water period in the southwest raises the industry's average cost, bringing positive sentiment to the market. In the short term, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the silicon price may turn to oscillation again, with the main price fluctuation range likely to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On September 25th, the price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,550 yuan/ton; the price of N - type granular silicon was 50,500 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the N - type material basis (average price) was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 15 yuan/ton, up 50.00% from the previous day; the spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 390 yuan/ton, up 1.27%; the spread between 2512 - 2601 was 25 yuan/ton, down 28.57% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly, the national industrial silicon production was 385,700 tons, up 14.01%; the production in Xinjiang was 169,700 tons, up 12.91%; the production in Yunnan was 58,100 tons, up 41.19%; the production in Sichuan was 53,700 tons, up 10.72%. The national operating rate was 52.61%, up 3.26% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 11.63%, the inventory in Yunnan increased by 2.91%, and the inventory in Sichuan increased by 3.06%. The social inventory remained unchanged, the contract inventory increased by 0.28%, and the non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.24% [4]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has continued to trade in a narrow range, influenced by news and sentiment. The fundamental oversupply problem persists. Although the manufacturer's inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually shifted to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory has continued to rise. The weekly production remains high, and there is still an oversupply compared to the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid demand pattern. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction in the future, the inventory will be further pressured. The implementation of policies and the load regulation of soda ash plants can be tracked. The overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and short - selling positions established on rallies can be held [5]. - **Glass**: Rumors about a glass enterprise meeting have driven the market sentiment to rise significantly. The news and speculation about "calling for industry price increases" and "anti - involution" should be viewed rationally as they cannot be confirmed for now. The glass market has seen a significant increase in positions and prices in the past two days due to news - driven factors. The sharp rebound in the glass market has led to an increase in spot prices, with some regional enterprises raising their prices by up to 100 yuan/ton, and the spot market trading has become active again, with the production - sales ratio exceeding 100%. However, the intermediate inventory in some regions remains high and shows no obvious signs of reduction. In the long - term, the real estate market is at the bottom of the cycle, and the industry needs to clear excess capacity to solve the oversupply problem. In the short - term, the sentiment - driven market has led to a temporary improvement in the spot market, and its sustainability needs to be tracked. As the National Day approaches, the pre - holiday macro sentiment is positive, and the glass industry does not have the driving force for continuous negative feedback for now, so excessive short - selling is not recommended. After the holiday, the actual implementation of policies in various regions and the inventory replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" period need to be tracked [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China increased by 4.31%, 4.88%, 4.35%, and 4.80% respectively. The prices of glass 2505 and glass 2509 increased by 1.99% and 1.54% respectively [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and soda ash 2509 increased by 0.72% and 0.79% respectively [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased by 2.02%, the weekly production of soda ash decreased by 2.02%, the daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 0.47%, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory decreased by 1.10%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 10.69% [5]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rates of new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area were - 0.09%, 0.05%, - 0.22%, and - 6.55% respectively [5].

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025/9/18 | 2025/9/24 | 2025/9/25 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 2025/9/18 | 2025/9/24 | 2025/9/25 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 沙河重碱 | 1210.0 | 1210.0 | 1220.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | SA05合 约 | 1400.0 | 1394.0 | 1404.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1200.0 | 1200.0 | 1210.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | SA01合约 | 1306.0 | 1307.0 | 1315.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1442.0 | 1448.0 | 1459.0 | 17.0 | 11.0 | | 青 海 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘扰动再起，油价反弹，但不改供给过剩局面。近期乌克兰再次袭击俄 | | 原油 | | 罗斯，油价反弹，但供给过剩局面没有改变；库存方面，美国库存下降， | | | 谨慎看空 | 油价下方有支撑；供需方面，OPEC+继续扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上 | | ★ | | | | | | 升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注 60 美元附近美国页岩油新钻井盈亏平 | | | | 衡点。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 成本端油价有所反弹，下游化工开工率下降，节前排库，液化气依旧偏弱。 | | LPG | | 成本端原油短期反弹，但供给过剩压力上升，价格中枢预计会继续下移； | | ★ | 谨慎看空 LPG | 估值修复，主力合约基差回归至正常；PDH 利润转弱，开工率大幅回 | | | | 落；供给端和库存量均上升，偏利空。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 短期跟随成本反弹为主，现货止跌反弹，基差较前期有所修复但盘面依旧 | | | | 维持升水结构。关注下游补库力度。前期检 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Rubber Industry**: Supply is affected by rainy seasons and typhoons, and future supply expectations suppress raw material prices. Downstream tire factories' pre - holiday restocking is mostly completed, and inventory reduction has slowed. Demand is lackluster with sub - optimal sales performance. The 01 contract range is 15000 - 16500, and follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output during the peak season in major producing areas [1]. - **Log Industry**: Logs are in an oscillatory pattern. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" season, attention should be paid to whether the shipment volume improves. In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [3]. - **Glass and Soda Ash Industry**: Soda ash has a fundamental oversupply problem, and the inventory has shifted to the middle and lower reaches. In the medium - term, demand will continue the previous rigid pattern. It is recommended to hold short positions. Glass prices were driven up by rumors, and the spot market is expected to improve in the short - term, but the mid - stream inventory in some areas is high, and the long - term outlook depends on capacity clearance [4]. - **Polysilicon Industry**: The supply - side regulation is ineffective, and the industry has over - capacity. Downstream component inventory is high, and prices are unstable. Before the National Day holiday, polysilicon prices will oscillate within the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Industrial Silicon Industry**: From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon increases, and the balance turns loose. The price is expected to oscillate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the fourth - quarter production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and Sichuan and Yunnan industrial silicon enterprises [6]. Summary by Directory Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 24, the price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton, and the full - latex basis increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 820 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 55 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, Thailand's rubber production increased by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, while India's and China's decreased. In August, domestic tire production increased by 9.10%, and exports decreased by 5.46% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.95%, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 3.07% [1]. Log Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 25, the 2511 log contract closed at 803 yuan/cubic meter, down 2 yuan/cubic meter. The spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged [3]. - **Cost and Import**: The import theoretical cost increased slightly, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was stable [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 19, the total national coniferous log inventory decreased by 100,000 cubic meters. The daily log shipment volume decreased by 3100 cubic meters as of September 12. This week, the number of expected arriving ships from New Zealand increased by 4, and the arrival volume increased by 126,000 cubic meters [3]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On September 26, the prices in North China, Central China, and South China increased slightly, and the prices of the 2505 and 2509 contracts increased by 3.35% and 2.52% respectively [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices in all regions remained unchanged, and the prices of the 2505 and 2509 contracts increased by 2.42% and 1.84% respectively [4]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash production and glass melting volume decreased slightly. Glass factory inventory and soda ash factory inventory decreased, while soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased [4]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4]. Polysilicon Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 24, the average price of N - type re - feed decreased by 0.28%, and the N - type material basis decreased by 53.14% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract price increased by 2.23%, and the spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased significantly [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64%, and monthly production increased by 23.31%. Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 0.29%, and monthly production increased by 6.24% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% [5]. Industrial Silicon Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 24, the prices of various types of industrial silicon remained mostly unchanged, and the basis of some types decreased [6]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads between some contracts changed slightly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Monthly national industrial silicon production increased by 14.01%, and the export volume increased by 3.56%. The production of related industries such as organic silicon DMC and polysilicon increased [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 1.07%, and the social inventory increased by 0.74% [6].

| 乖 亦安期货 | | --- | 玻璃纯碱早报 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 华北重碱 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 华北氨碱法利润 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 (1,000) (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 华北联碱法利润 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 华北轻碱 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 39083 39096 39109 39122 39135 39148 39161 39174 39187 39200 39213 39226 39239 3925 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information is provided in the documents regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - The glass and soda ash futures markets continued to weaken yesterday. The soda ash market has an oversupply problem, and the inventory has transferred to the mid - downstream. There is no significant increase in downstream demand in the medium term. It is recommended to hold short positions. The glass spot market trading has become dull, and the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the oversupply problem. Track policies and the inventory - building performance of mid - downstream enterprises during the "Golden September and Silver October" [1]. Natural Rubber - Future supply increase expectations have weakened raw material prices, and the cost support has changed from strong to weak. The downstream tire factory's pre - holiday inventory replenishment is basically completed, and the de - stocking rhythm of natural rubber spot inventory has slowed down. Some enterprises may control production flexibly. Pay attention to the impact of typhoon weather on domestic production areas, and the 01 contract range is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow the raw material output in the main production areas during the peak season [3]. Logs - The log futures market fluctuated and closed flat. The inventory has decreased significantly, the demand has declined, and the supply is expected to increase. The market is in a volatile pattern. As the "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, pay attention to whether the shipment volume improves significantly during the seasonal peak season. It is recommended to go long at low prices [5]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market continued to decline. Substantial support policies have not been implemented, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. The downstream component inventory is high, and prices are loosening. Follow national policies, the actual production start - up rate of polysilicon enterprises, and the inventory digestion progress of downstream photovoltaic component factories [6]. Industrial Silicon - From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the market balance is gradually turning to looseness. The expected supply surplus is more obvious in October and narrows in November. The cost increase in the dry season in the southwest has boosted market sentiment. In the short term, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the price may fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. Glass 2505 decreased by 1.28% to 1312, and Glass 2509 decreased by 0.64% to 1389. The 05 basis increased by 9.50% to - 162. Soda ash prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. Soda ash 2505 decreased by 1.66% to 1361, and Soda ash 2509 decreased by 1.08% to 1423. The 05 basis increased by 27.38% to - 61 [1]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate decreased by 2.02% to 85.53%, and the weekly output decreased by 2.02% to 74.57 tons. The float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.47% to 15.95 tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [1]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory decreased by 1.10% to 6090.80 (unit not clear), the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33% to 175.56 tons, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 10.69% to 61.49 tons. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged at 20.4 [1]. Real Estate Data - The year - on - year change of new construction area was - 0.09% (improved from - 0.19%), the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%, the completion area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [1]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan Guofu hand - made rubber remained unchanged at 14,700 yuan/ton, the full - latex basis increased by 9.84% to - 855 yuan/ton, the Thai standard mixed rubber price decreased by 0.34% to 14,800 yuan/ton, and the non - standard price difference increased by 5.23% to - 725 yuan/ton [3]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 150.00% to 15 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 14.29% to 40 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 44.44% to - 25 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In July, Thailand's production increased by 1.61% to 421.60 tons, Indonesia's production increased by 12.09% to 197.50 tons, India's production decreased by 2.17% to 45.00 tons, and China's production decreased by 1.27% to 101.30 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires increased by 0.20% to 73.66%, and the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires increased by 0.07% to 65.66%. In August, domestic tire production increased by 9.10% to 10,295.40 million pieces, and tire exports decreased by 5.46% to 6,301.00 [3]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.95% to 286,639 (unit not clear), the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 3.07% to 44,553, the dry - rubber bonded warehouse inbound rate in Qingdao increased to 2.47, and the outbound rate decreased to 6.44 [3]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log 2511 remained unchanged at 805 yuan/cubic meter, Log 2601 increased by 0.06% to 819 yuan/cubic meter, and Log 2603 decreased by 0.18% to 823.5 yuan/cubic meter. The prices of main benchmark delivery spot goods remained unchanged [5]. Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.115, and the import theoretical cost increased by 0.10 to 797.53 [5]. Supply - The port shipping volume decreased by 3.87% to 166.6 million cubic meters, the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38% to 44. The inventory in China decreased by 3.31% to 292.00 million cubic meters, and the inventory in Shandong decreased by 3.50% to 176.60 million cubic meters [5]. Demand - The average daily outbound volume in China decreased by 5% to 5.98 million cubic meters, and the average daily outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 11% to 3.06 million cubic meters [5]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type multi - feedstock remained unchanged at 52,650 yuan/ton, the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 49,500 yuan/ton, and the N - type material basis increased by 43.98% to 2,390 yuan/ton [6]. Futures Prices and Month - to - Month Spreads - The main contract decreased by 1.43% to 50,260, the current - month - to - first - continuous spread decreased by 127.27% to - 45, and the first - continuous - to - second - continuous spread increased by 5.99% to - 2355 [6]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: The silicon wafer production increased by 0.29% to 13.92 GW, and the polysilicon production decreased by 0.64% to 3.10 tons. Monthly: The polysilicon production increased by 23.31% to 13.17 tons, the polysilicon import volume decreased by 9.63% to 0.10 tons, and the polysilicon export volume increased by 40.12% to 0.30 tons [6]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85% to 20.40 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% to 16.87 GW [6]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main - Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8500 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 4.55% to 575, the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9700 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 50.00% to - 25 [7]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 75.00% to - 35, the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 1.27% to - 400, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 133.33% to 35 [7]. Fundamental Data - Monthly: The national industrial silicon production increased by 14.01% to 38.57 tons, the Xinjiang industrial silicon production increased by 12.91% to 16.97 tons, and the Yunnan industrial silicon production increased by 41.19% to 5.81 tons. The national operating rate increased by 6.20% to 55.87%, the Xinjiang operating rate increased by 15.25% to 60.61%, and the Yunnan operating rate increased by 44.09% to 47.39% [7]. Inventory Changes - The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.07% to 12.04 tons, the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased by 5.45% to 3.10 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.74% to 54.30 tons [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish on px - mx [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [4] - Soda Ash: Bearish consolidation [4] Core Views - The geopolitical disturbances in the crude oil market have led to a short - term rebound, but the supply - surplus situation remains unchanged, and the price is under downward pressure [1][7][9]. - LPG is affected by the cost - end rebound and weak downstream demand, showing a weakening trend [1][12][13]. - L has improved cost support, short - term stop - falling, with strong supply and demand fundamentally but insufficient upward drive [1][18]. - PP has improved cost support, short - term stop - falling, with supply pressure expected to ease and slow - rising demand [1][23]. - PVC has good cost support and strong exports, but the supply - demand situation is still weak, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking [1][28]. - PX's supply - demand tight - balance expectation is loosening, and it is expected to be weak [1][31][32]. - PTA's supply - side pressure may ease, but the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is underperforming, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [2][35][36]. - Ethylene glycol's supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, but the low inventory provides some support [2][40][41]. - Methanol's supply - side pressure is still large, but the demand has improved, and the downward space may be limited [2][43][45]. - Urea's supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak at home and strong abroad, and the inventory is accumulating [2][48][50]. - Natural gas in the US has seen an unexpected inventory build - up, leading to a weakening price, but the cooling weather provides some support [4]. - Asphalt is under pressure due to the weak cost - end and loose supply - demand situation [4]. - Glass has a weak reality and strong expectation, with supply under pressure and demand insufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [4]. - Soda ash's supply is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.81%, Brent up 1.52%, and SC down 1.84% [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances and unexpected inventory draw - down in the US provided short - term support, but the long - term supply is in surplus [7][8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, focus on the break - even point of shale oil new wells around $60 [9]. LPG - **Market Review**: On September 23, the PG main contract closed at 4,247 yuan/ton, down 1.07% [11]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil has a supply surplus, and the demand for downstream chemicals has weakened, with high warehouse receipts [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,300] yuan/ton [13]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,130 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improved, short - term stop - falling, with abundant supply and strengthening demand [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to basis repair and wait for dips to go long, focus on the range of [7,100 - 7,200] yuan/ton [18]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,873 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improved, short - term stop - falling, with supply pressure expected to ease and rising demand [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices, do not chase short at low absolute prices, focus on the range of [6,800 - 6,950] yuan/ton [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,938 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improved, exports were strong, but supply was stronger than demand, and inventory was accumulating [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips due to low valuation, focus on the range of [4,800 - 5,000] yuan/ton [28]. PX - **Market Review**: On September 19, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [31]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side changes were small, demand was expected to weaken, and the supply - demand tight - balance expectation was loosening [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to short on rebounds, focus on the range of [6,515 - 6,600] yuan/ton [32]. PTA - **Market Review**: On September 19, the PTA price in East China was 4,555 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure may ease, but the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season was underperforming, and the demand was weak [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to short at high prices, focus on the range of [4,550 - 4,600] yuan/ton [36]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On September 19, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,352 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [39]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure was expected to increase, demand was weak, but low inventory provided some support [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to short on rebounds, focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,250] yuan/ton [41]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 19, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,299 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure was still large, but demand had improved, and cost support was stabilizing [43][44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract, focus on the range of [2,335 - 2,365] yuan/ton [45]. Urea - **Market Review**: On September 19, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton [47]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply was relatively loose, demand was weak at home and strong abroad, and inventory was accumulating [48][49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to go long at low valuations, focus on the range of [1,650 - 1,670] yuan/ton [50]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: As of the week of September 12, the US natural gas inventory increased by 90 billion cubic feet to 2,433 billion cubic feet [4]. - **Basic Logic**: Unexpected inventory build - up led to price weakening, but cooling weather provided some support [4]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end was weak, supply - demand was loose, and the valuation was high [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply was under pressure, demand was insufficient, and inventory was expected to increase [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term, be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply was expected to be loose, and demand was mostly for rigid needs [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4].

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1138 1155 1138 1060 1076 1069 1183 1312 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 10合约 11合约 01合约 05合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(9/23） 昨日(9/22） 一周前(9/16） 一月前(8/25） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃：河北低价大板 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100 200 300 400 500 ...