弘业纯碱周报 2026.2.6 分析师范阿骄 从业资格证F3054801 投资咨询证号Z0016954 纯碱行情研判 典型弱市结构，短期反弹空间受限。预计盘面震荡偏弱，区间1190—1230 元 / 吨，节前难有趋势性行情。 数据来源：Wind 隆众资讯 弘业能化工业品事业部 ➢ 市场概况：本周纯碱市场在节前情绪扰动后回归基本面逻辑，供强需弱格局未改，库存持续累积，市场缺乏持续性驱动。主力合约已进入"高库存+低需求+ 远月贴水"的典型弱市结构，短期反弹空间受限。主力合约SA2605于2月5日收盘报1209元/吨，跌1.65%，市场情绪由节前补库预期驱动转向供需宽松现实主导。 ➢ 供给方面：2月5日行业综合产能利用率为83.25%，虽较1月高点回落，但仍在高位运行。内蒙古博源银根100万吨/年新产能已释放，行业总产能突破4,000万 吨，叠加徐州丰成、湖南冷水江等企业计划复产，供应端无实质性收缩预期。 ➢ 需求方面：重碱需求受浮法玻璃（产能利用率75.57%）与光伏玻璃（66.31%）拖累，新增产线复产预期未兑现；轻碱虽受益于碳酸锂行业高开工率保持稳定， 但难以支撑整体市场。春节临近，下游企业陆续停工，节前补库 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 6 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力低开低走，日内震荡偏弱。120 分钟布林带走紧口 喇叭，短线震荡信号，盘中短线压力关注布林带中轨附近，支撑关注布林带下轨 附近。成交量较昨日减 47834 手，持仓量较昨日增 7849 手；日内最高 1205，最 低 1184，收盘 1190，（较昨结算价）跌 22 元/吨，跌幅 1.82%。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 需求方面，纯碱企业出货量 73.74 万吨，环比下降 2.98%；纯碱整体出货率 为 95.23%，环比-1.82%。下游以低价刚需补库为主，采购积极性不佳。 利润方面，据隆众资讯统计，联碱法理论利润（双吨）为-29 元/吨，环比 下降 2.5 元/吨。氨碱法理论利润-88.8 元/吨，环比下降 0.45 元/吨。周内原料 端矿盐价格稳定，动力煤价格震荡上移，成本略有增加。 三、主要逻辑总结 纯碱的核心矛盾仍是供强需弱导致的库存持续累积，行业供需错配格局未改 善。持续增加的库存施压盘面，虽短期受反内卷情绪以及 ...

作者： 邢亚文 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 核心观点 市场分析 玻璃方面，1月玻璃期货主力合约2605呈现宽幅震荡格局，开年冲高后回落持续震荡偏弱走势。截止1月 30日，收盘价1056元，环比12月31日，收报价下跌31元/吨。现货方面，据隆众资讯最新数据，1月全国 浮法玻璃市场均价1090元/吨，环比跌39元/吨，跌幅3.45%，整体呈现下行趋势。 供给方面，据隆众资讯最新数据，本月产量预计468.27万吨，环比下降2.48%，平均日产量为15.11万 吨，较上期下降3840吨，降幅2.48%，平均产能利用率为75.64%，较上期下降1.8个百分点。 需求方面，据隆众资讯最新数据，1月浮法玻璃总消费量环比下降，数据来看，国内理论消费量在 487.35万吨，环比下降6.68%。 库存方面，据隆众资讯最新数据，1月浮法玻璃样本企业库存呈现震荡下降趋势，截至月底，样本企业 库存总量预估在5274.58万重箱，环比上月底减少412.02万重箱，降幅7.25%；同比增加938.94万重箱， 增幅21.66%。 整体来看，玻璃市场的核心博弈仍在于供应收缩与需求疲软。 ...

| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/2/2 | | 2026/1/23 2026/1/29 2026/1/30 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | 2026/1/23 | 2026/1/29 | | 2026/1/30 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 976.0 | 993.0 | 1002.0 | 26.0 | 9.0 | FG05合约 | 1064.0 | 1087.0 | 1056.0 | -8.0 | -31.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 967.0 | 993.0 | 993.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 1170.0 | 1189.0 | 1167.0 | -3.0 | -22.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 959.0 | 989.0 | 989.0 | 30.0 ...

第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响玻璃纯碱走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、浮法玻璃日熔下滑至一定低位，但后续冷修和点火预期均存在，需求现实和预期同样疲弱。玻璃处于供需 双弱的状态下，整体节奏较难把握。价格如果上涨，会动摇市场的冷修预期而刺激点火，因此很难在需求没 有起色的情况下给到玻璃价格向上的弹性。但如果价格急速下跌的话，也不排除当下的点火预期被动摇，并 且在春节前触发更多的冷修计划；此外，在远月交易的市场逻辑里，春节后的需求回归也是一个可以博弈的 点。 2、纯碱估值弹性有限，供应端没有趋势性减产的情况下难以给到产业利润。我们对纯碱的定性依旧是过剩， 估值上跟随成本而动。价格往下需要看到上游厂家的快速累库，往上则需要看到供应"故事"或是成本"故 事"，短期都难以实现，价格或窄幅震荡为主。 南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报 ——供需矛盾不明，价格缺乏弹性 寿佳露（投资咨询资格证号：Z0020569） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月1日 3、现实层面，无论供应预期如何变化，目前玻璃中游的高库存需要被消化（因此期现正反馈持续性比较短 暂）；至于纯碱，产量仍有上升空间， ...

陈逸 （联系人） 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0023202 春节临近需求偏淡， 短期驱动不足 玻璃周报 从业资格号：F03137504 郎志杰（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F3030112 2026/01/31 产业链示意图 上游 天然碱矿 （天然碱法） 原盐、石灰石 （氨碱法） 原盐、合成氨 （联碱法） 燃料：动力 煤、天然气 中游 轻碱 重碱 氯化铵 下游 日用玻璃 洗涤剂 食品行业 无机盐 平板玻璃 农用氮肥 房地产——约88% 汽车——约6% 光伏——约1% 其他 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 价格：截至2026/01/30，浮法玻璃现货市场报价1020元/吨，环比+10元/吨；玻璃主力合约收盘报1087元/吨，环比+30元/吨；基差-67元/ 吨，环比上周-20元/吨。 成本利润：截至2026/01/30，以天然气为燃料生产浮法玻璃的周均利润为-155.12元/吨，环比+3.57元/吨；河南LNG市场低端价3900元/吨， 环比+50元/吨。以煤炭为燃料生 ...

Glass Market Analysis - The main contract for glass (2605) experienced a downward trend this week, closing at 1064 CNY/ton, a decrease of 39 CNY/ton or 3.54% compared to the previous week [2][8] - The average weekly price of float glass in the domestic market was 1098 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 2.45 CNY/ton, with stable transaction volumes [2][8] - The operating rate of float glass enterprises was 71.62%, up by 0.14%, while the capacity utilization rate increased to 75.57%, up by 0.34% [2][8] - Demand for float glass has slowed down due to the upcoming Spring Festival, leading to an increase in total inventory to 53.216 million heavy boxes, up by 0.38% [2][8] - Overall, the supply-demand imbalance in the glass market remains significant, with insufficient production cuts relative to the decline in demand, although there are expectations for inventory pressure to ease as procurement increases [2][8] Soda Ash Market Analysis - The main contract for soda ash (2605) fluctuated this week, closing at 1198 CNY/ton, an increase of 6 CNY/ton or 0.5% [3][9] - Downstream demand remains cautious, with limited purchasing activity observed [3][9] - The capacity utilization rate for soda ash was 86.42%, down by 0.4%, with production at 771,700 tons, a decrease of 0.46% [3][9] - Domestic soda ash manufacturers reported a total inventory of 152,120 tons, down by 3.42%, indicating a clear reduction in stock [3][9] - The supply-demand situation for soda ash is relatively balanced, with some plants resuming operations after maintenance, but future production profits may be pressured due to new projects and increased expectations for float glass production cuts [3][9] Market Strategy - The strategy for the glass market is characterized as fluctuating [10] - The strategy for the soda ash market is described as fluctuating with a weak bias [10]

Report on Float Glass 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the overall market sentiment was weak. Affected by insufficient orders from downstream deep - processing enterprises, low inventory - stocking willingness, and seasonal factors approaching the Spring Festival, terminal demand was weak. Most regions saw a slight accumulation or stability in inventory, and the overall de - stocking rhythm lacked sustainability. Currently, the float glass market lacks substantial positive drivers, and market participants are mostly in a wait - and - see attitude. It is expected that the short - term market will continue to show a narrow - range oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range of 1000 - 1175 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of January 23, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1010 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main glass contract was 1057 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton; the basis was - 47 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton [13][19]. - **Cost and Profit**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 158.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.71 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 65.11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.90 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was - 1.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton [13][29][32]. - **Supply**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating rate was 71.62%. The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.70 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 44.10%, remaining unchanged week - on - week [13][37][40]. - **Demand**: According to WIND data, from January to December 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 88101.37 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 9399.63 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. According to CAAM data, in December, the production and sales of automobiles were 329.60/327.22 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09%/6.20%; from January to December, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3453.10/3440.00 million vehicles [13][43][46]. - **Inventory**: As of January 23, 2026, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 5321.58 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 20.28 million heavy boxes; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 188.48 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 million heavy boxes [13][51]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Glass Basis**: As of January 23, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1010 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main glass contract was 1057 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton; the basis was - 47 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton [19]. - **Glass Inter - month Spread**: As of January 23, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of glass was 159 yuan/ton (+318), the 05 - 09 spread was - 105 yuan/ton (+2), the 09 - 01 spread was - 54 yuan/ton (-320), and the open interest reached 155.73 million lots [22]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Float Glass Profit and Cost**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 158.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.71 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 65.11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.90 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was - 1.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton [29][32]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Glass Output and Operating Rate**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating rate was 71.62% [37]. - **Glass Demand**: As of January 23, 2026, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.70 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 44.10%, remaining unchanged week - on - week. From January to December 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 88101.37 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 9399.63 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. In December, the production and sales of automobiles were 329.60/327.22 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09%/6.20%; from January to December, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3453.10/3440.00 million vehicles [40][43][46]. 3.5 Inventory As of January 23, 2026, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 5321.58 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 20.28 million heavy boxes, and the previous forecast value was 5050.8 million heavy boxes. The de - stocking market did not appear as expected. As the demand from processing plants came to an end, it was more difficult to reduce the factory inventory, and the estimated inventory for this week was 5300 million heavy boxes; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 188.48 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 million heavy boxes [51]. Report on Soda Ash 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the supply - demand pattern of the soda ash market was generally loose. The supply side remained abundant, and the purchasing mentality of downstream enterprises became more cautious. However, the inventory of glass factories was low, and the pre - holiday restocking demand increased. The trading volume at the Shahe and Hebei delivery warehouses was more than 30,000 tons. Overall, the current market lacks substantial positive drivers, the futures market maintains a weak oscillating trend, which further affects the spot market and market sentiment. It is expected that the short - term soda ash market will continue to operate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 1120 - 1260 yuan/ton [62][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of January 23, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main soda ash contract was 1185 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton; the basis was - 35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [62][68]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 168.3 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 693 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week [62][79][82]. - **Supply**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 77.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 86.42%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 tons; the output of light soda ash was 35.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 tons [62][90][93]. - **Demand**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating rate was 71.62%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in December reached 2.95 million tons [62][96]. - **Inventory**: As of January 23, 2026, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5212 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0538 million tons; the available inventory days were 12.61 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 days. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 69.67 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.13 tons; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 82.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 tons [62][101][104]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Soda Ash Basis**: As of January 23, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main soda ash contract was 1185 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton; the basis was - 35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [68]. - **Soda Ash Inter - month Spread**: As of January 23, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was 100 yuan/ton (+176), the 05 - 09 spread was - 62 yuan/ton (+3), the 09 - 01 spread was - 38 yuan/ton (-179), and the open interest reached 155.73 million lots [71]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Soda Ash Profit**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 168.3 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton [79]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 693 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton [82][85]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Soda Ash Output**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 77.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 86.42%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 tons; the output of light soda ash was 35.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 tons [90][93]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating rate was 71.62%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in December reached 2.95 million tons [96]. 3.5 Inventory As of January 23, 2026, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5212 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0538 million tons; the available inventory days were 12.61 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 days. The previous forecast value was 1.5727 million tons, and the de - stocking speed was slightly faster than expected; it is expected that the inventory will continue to decrease this week, with the estimated value of 1.48 million tons. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 69.67 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.13 tons; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 82.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 tons [101][104].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "oscillating weakly" [1] Core Viewpoint of the Report - Although the short - term sentiment is slightly supported by news, considering the intensifying industrial contradiction of over - capacity, it is advisable to adopt the strategy of shorting on rebounds. Future attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash contract opened high and closed low, with an intraday weakening trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks are downward, indicating a short - term weakening trend. The intraday resistance is near the 20 - day moving average, and support is near the lower Bollinger Band. Trading volume decreased by 297,000 lots compared to the previous day, and open interest decreased by 3,291 lots. The intraday high was 1,195, the low was 1,173, and the closing price was 1,177, down 24 yuan/ton or 2% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: The spot market is running steadily. Enterprise equipment is fluctuating slightly. Lianyungang Soda Industry's equipment is gradually recovering, and Debang's output has been slightly adjusted, with the overall output increasing slightly. Downstream demand is tepid, with buyers purchasing on an as - needed basis at low prices. The short - term market lacks substantial support, and prices are adjusting steadily [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China is 1,250 yuan/ton, with a basis of 73 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,700 tons or 2.88%. Light soda ash production was 361,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,400 tons; heavy soda ash production was 413,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,300 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, up 2.43 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.95%, down 0.46 percentage points; the joint - soda process capacity utilization rate was 78.88%, up 4.77 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 89.47%, up 1.32 percentage points [2] - **Inventory**: As of January 19, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5442 million tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons or 1.96% from the previous Thursday. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 822,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,400 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 721,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,400 tons [2] - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.20%. The overall shipment rate was 99.70%, up 21.52 percentage points. Downstream demand for soda ash is average, mainly focusing on inventory consumption and low - price procurement. Light soda ash demand is relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash has weakened due to the cold repair of glass production lines [2][3] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information, the theoretical profit of the joint - soda process (per double - ton) was - 44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.3 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 66.46%. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, while the price of thermal coal increased, leading to higher costs [3] Main Logic Summary - Currently, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall production is constantly increasing. The cold - repair pace of glass has slowed down in the short term, and the rigid demand for soda ash has slightly recovered. Additionally, due to continuous losses and recent positive news, there is some short - term support. However, considering the intensifying over - capacity issue, a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass investment view: Bullish [4] - Soda ash investment view: Neutral [5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Recently, the supply and demand of glass and soda ash are flat, and prices are fluctuating. Policy is favorable at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. Glass demand has resilience and supply reduction is realized. Soda ash supply and demand are average. [41] - Recommended strategy: Short - term long for glass or inter - month reverse arbitrage [41] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Neutral, with stable production. Daily output is 150700 tons, up 0.45% from the 8th. Industry start - up rate is 71.38%, unchanged from the 8th; capacity utilization is 75.34%, up 0.34 percentage points from the 8th [4] - Demand: Neutral, with support. Recent shipments of original film enterprises are good, but terminal demand support is limited [4] - Inventory: Bullish, with inventory reduction. Total enterprise inventory is 55.518 million heavy boxes, down 1.348 million heavy boxes, or 2.37% month - on - month, up 27.04% year - on - year. Inventory days are 24.1 days, 1.5 days less than the previous period [4] - Basis/spread: Neutral, basis fluctuates strongly this week; 01 - 05 spread fluctuates lower [4] - Valuation: Neutral, valuation has been significantly repaired [4] - Macro and policy: Bullish, policy is favorable at the end of the year and the beginning of the year [4] - Trading strategy: Unilateral: Go long on dips; Arbitrage: Mainly reverse arbitrage [4] Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish, with significant supply increase. This week's production is 775300 tons, up 21700 tons, or 2.88% month - on - month. Middle - term supply surplus pressure remains [5] - Demand: Neutral, overall demand is okay, but direct demand is weak in the short term [5] - Inventory: Bearish, inventory increases slightly. Total manufacturer inventory is 157500 tons, up 2300 tons, or 0.15% from last Thursday, up 10.06% year - on - year [5] - Basis/spread: Neutral, basis fluctuates and rebounds this week; 01 - 05 spread fluctuates [5] - Valuation: Bearish, valuation is average [5] - Macro and policy: Bullish, policy is favorable at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, and market sentiment changes quickly [5] - Trading strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Mainly reverse arbitrage [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - Price: This week, the price drops. The main contract closes at 1103 (- 41), and the Shahe spot price is 936 (- 8) [7] Soda Ash - Price: This week, the price fluctuates and drops. The main contract closes at 1192 (- 36), and the Shahe spot price is 1143 (- 56) [13] Spread/Basis - Soda ash: 05 - 09 spread fluctuates, basis fluctuates lower - Glass: 05 - 09 spread fluctuates, basis fluctuates lower [23] 3.3 Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Stable. Production is stable. Daily output is 150700 tons, up 0.45% from the 8th. Industry start - up rate is 71.38%, unchanged from the 8th; capacity utilization is 75.34%, up 0.34 percentage points from the 8th. Production profit improves slightly [26] - Demand: Supported. Downstream deep - processing orders improve, but real - estate mid - and back - end completion data is poor [30] - Inventory: Decreases. Total enterprise inventory is 55.518 million heavy boxes, down 1.348 million heavy boxes, or 2.37% month - on - month, up 27.04% year - on - year. Inventory days are 24.1 days, 1.5 days less than the previous period [31] Soda Ash - Supply: At a high level. Supply increases significantly. This week's production is 775300 tons, up 21700 tons, or 2.88% month - on - month. Alkali plant profit decreases [34] - Demand: Weak. Direct demand weakens marginally in the short term. Inventory increases slightly [38]