Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. The short - term is expected to be mainly in a volatile trend. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [2][5]. 3. Directory Summary 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is rare, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, terminal demand weakens, and soda ash factory inventory is at a historical high; bearish [2] - **Basis**: Hebei Shahe heavy - quality soda ash spot price is 1260 yuan/ton, SA2601 closing price is 1386 yuan/ton, basis is - 126 yuan, futures are at a premium to the spot; bearish [2] - **Inventory**: National soda ash factory inventory is 189.38 tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2] - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; neutral [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increase; bearish [2] - **Expectation**: Soda ash fundamentals have strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [2] 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive**: The peak summer maintenance period is coming, and production will decline [3] - **Negative**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year; downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash; the sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has subsided [5] 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1395 | 1280 | - 115 | | Current Value | 1386 | 1260 | - 126 | | Change Rate | - 0.65% | - 1.56% | 9.57% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe market is 1260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [11] 3.5 Supply in Fundamentals - **Production Profit**: North China ammonia - soda process profit is - 25.60 yuan/ton, East China co - production process profit is - 41 yuan/ton, and soda ash production profit has rebounded from a historical low [14] - **开工率 and Production**: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.32%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally. The weekly production of soda ash is 76.13 tons, including 42.97 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with production at a historical high [17][19] - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with actual production of 100 tons [21] 3.6 Demand in Fundamentals - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.73% [24] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 15.96 tons, and the operating rate of 75.34% is stable [27] - **Photovoltaic Glass**: Photovoltaic glass prices continue to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [33] 3.7 Inventory in Fundamentals National soda ash factory inventory is 189.38 tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36] 3.8 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will generally face pressure, but there may be variables with anti - involution hype. It is recommended to buy on dips for the short - term main contract of soda ash, while being aware of operational risks [2]. - For glass, the supply remains at the bottom, and the current real - estate situation is not optimistic. However, there is an expectation of restocking as the peak season approaches. If the price drops to around 1100 yuan, pay attention to the opportunity when the 20 - day interest - rate cut expectation may be ignited. It is recommended to buy on dips for the main contract, while being aware of operational risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1386 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1212 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The price difference between soda ash and glass is 174 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Soda ash main contract open interest is 1398920 lots, down 10970 lots; glass main contract open interest is 1115020 lots, up 19010 lots. The net positions of the top 20 holders for soda ash is - 361252, up 3587; for glass is - 264184, up 40727 [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 10192 tons, unchanged; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 2438 tons, down 805 tons. The spread between the September and January contracts for soda ash is - 114 yuan, down 12 yuan; for glass is - 182 yuan, down 17 yuan. The basis of soda ash is - 115 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the basis of glass is - 128 yuan, down 5 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1280 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1325 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China light soda ash is 1270 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1088 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets is 1110 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of soda ash plants is 87.32%, up 1.91 percentage points; the operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.34%, up 2.34 percentage points [2]. - The in - production capacity of glass is 15.96 million tons/year, unchanged; the number of in - production glass production lines is 223, unchanged. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 189.73 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; the inventory of glass enterprises is 6342.6 million heavy boxes, up 157.9 million heavy boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative new construction area of real estate is 30364.32 million square meters, up 7180.71 million square meters; the cumulative completed area of real estate is 22566.61 million square meters, up 4181.47 million square meters [2]. Industry News - The domestic soda ash market showed a general trend with a lukewarm trading atmosphere. The supply increased as some plants resumed normal operation. The downstream demand was average, mainly replenishing stocks at low prices. The short - term soda ash market is expected to be lightly stable and volatile [2]. - The spot price of float glass was 1153 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Different regions had different market conditions, with some prices falling and some remaining stable [2]. Macro - aspect - In July, the housing prices in 70 cities were released. The prices of commercial residential buildings in all tiers of cities declined month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints provided. The report mainly presents the price, profit, production and sales, and inventory data of glass and soda ash. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From August 8th to 15th, 2025, the price of 5mm glass plates in various regions showed different degrees of change. For example, the Wuhan Changli 5mm large - plate price dropped from 1200.0 to 1100.0, a decrease of 100.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: The FG09 contract price decreased from 1063.0 to 1046.0, a decrease of 17.0; the FG01 contract price increased from 1196.0 to 1211.0, an increase of 15.0 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The North China coal - fired profit decreased from 249.2 to 231.0, a decrease of 18.2; the South China natural gas profit remained at - 129.1 [1]. - **Production and Sales**: The production and sales rate in Shahe was 102, in Hubei was 84, in East China was 96, and in South China was 88 [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The production and sales of Shahe factories improved slightly, but the sales of traders were average, and the spot - futures sales basically had no transactions. The price of factories in Hubei was around 1000, and the spot - futures transaction was average [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From August 8th to 15th, 2025, the price of heavy soda ash in various regions changed. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda ash increased from 1240.0 to 1280.0, an increase of 40.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: The SA05 contract price increased from 1392.0 to 1450.0, an increase of 58.0; the SA01 contract price increased from 1332.0 to 1395.0, an increase of 63.0 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The North China ammonia - alkali profit increased from - 132.8 to - 102.9, an increase of 29.8; the North China combined - alkali profit increased from - 220.6 to - 134.2, an increase of 86.4 [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1240, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1280. Downstream customers replenished at low prices but did not accept high - priced goods, with the intended price being 1220 - 1250 delivered. Factory inventories continued to accumulate, and delivery warehouse inventories increased slightly [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to expect a weak and oscillating market [2][4]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market is currently facing high inventory levels among manufacturers. The recovery of glass production and sales has fallen short of expectations, and the middle - stream is under significant pressure to reduce inventory. The 09 contract of glass is expected to remain weak, with support levels at 990 - 1000 [2][3]. - The real - estate market data shows a year - on - year decline, while the automotive market has seen year - on - year growth in production and sales. The supply of soda ash is increasing, and its futures price is expected to remain weak [2][46][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is a weak and oscillating market. The main reasons include the impact of the Qinghai Salt Lake incident on the supply side, subsequent inventory accumulation in glass, a decline in market speculation, high inventory in the middle - stream, and weakening demand from the real - estate market [2]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Spot Price - As of August 15, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,150 yuan/ton in North China (-30), 1,110 yuan/ton in Central China (-80), and 1,220 yuan/ton in East China (-50). The futures price of the glass 01 contract closed at 1,211 yuan/ton last Friday, up 15 for the week [12]. 3.2.2 Basis and Spread - As of August 15, the price difference between soda ash and glass was 184 yuan/ton (-85). The basis of the glass 01 contract was -171 yuan/ton (-75), and the 09 - 01 spread was -165 yuan/ton (-32) [13]. 3.3 Profit - For the natural - gas production process, the cost was 1,588 yuan/ton (-4), and the gross profit was -368 yuan/ton (-46). For the coal - gas production process, the cost was 1,175 yuan/ton (-5), and the gross profit was -25 yuan/ton (-25). For the petroleum - coke production process, the cost was 1,102 yuan/ton (-4), and the gross profit was 8 yuan/ton (-76) [17][21]. 3.4 Supply - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 158,355 tons/day (unchanged). There were 223 production lines in operation, and there was no change in production lines last week [23]. 3.5 Inventory - As of August 15, the national inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers was 6,342.6 million weight boxes (+157.9). Inventory increased in all regions, with significant increases in North China, Central China, and East China [27][33]. 3.6 Deep - processing - The order days of glass deep - processing increased slightly, showing a situation where the off - season was not as slack as usual. The comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass on August 14 was 91% (+4%), the operating rate of LOW - E glass on August 15 was 47.59% (+0.49%), and the order days of glass deep - processing in mid - August were 9.65 days (+0.1) [37]. 3.7 Demand 3.7.1 Automotive - In July, China's automobile production was 2.591 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 203,000 units and a year - on - year increase of 305,000 units. Sales were 2.593 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 311,000 units and a year - on - year increase of 331,000 units. The retail volume of new - energy passenger cars in July was 987,000 units, with a penetration rate of 54% [46]. 3.7.2 Real - estate - In July, China's real - estate completion area was 24.6739 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 29%. The new construction area was 48.4168 million square meters (-15%), the construction area was 54.0957 million square meters (-16%), and the commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million square meters (-8%). From August 3 to August 10, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.48 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 18% and a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The real - estate development investment in July was 692.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [54]. 3.8 Soda Ash 3.8.1 Spot and Futures Prices - As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,350 yuan/ton in North China (-50), 1,275 yuan/ton in East China (-75), 1,325 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1,500 yuan/ton in South China (unchanged). The soda ash 2509 contract closed at 1,395 yuan/ton last Friday (+63) [56][61]. 3.8.2 Cost and Profit - The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,296 yuan/ton (-9), and the gross profit was 34 yuan/ton (-22). The cost of the joint - production process was 1,730 yuan/ton (-60), and the gross profit was 9 yuan/ton (-60) [62][64]. 3.8.3 Production, Inventory, and Consumption - Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 761,300 tons (a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons), including 429,700 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 6,300 tons) and 331,600 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 10,400 tons). The loss was 110,400 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 16,800 tons). As of August 15, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.8938 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 28,700 tons), including 1.1338 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 13,700 tons) and 760,000 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 42,400 tons). The weekly apparent demand for heavy soda ash last week was 443,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 64,700 tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 289,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,400 tons. The production - sales ratio of soda ash last week was 96.23% [72][78][86].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soda ash market is strongly influenced by capital behavior, with small rumors spreading. Although it shows short - term resistance, its fundamentals are weak, with increasing supply, stable rigid demand, and a trend of inventory accumulation. The glass market has stable daily production, but the actual demand growth rate is limited, and the inventory is increasing. The overall commodity market is dominated by weak reality and strong expectations, with intensified divergence between long and short positions [14][23] - For soda ash, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with attention to logical transformation and event - driven factors. For glass, it is expected to show a weakening trend in the short - term. The report also suggests paying attention to the entry opportunity of going long FG01 and short SA01 [14][23] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Soda Ash 1.1 Supply - This week, the domestic soda ash production was 761,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons (2.2%). The production increase was due to the increased load of some devices such as Jiangsu Shilian, Shaanxi Xinghua, etc., and the decrease was due to the maintenance of Inner Mongolia Chemical Industry. It is expected that the weekly production next week will be 780,000 tons, and large - scale maintenance will start in September, but the premium and scale of maintenance are limited [7] - The theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash in China was 34.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.80 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash by the combined - soda process was 9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 59.50 yuan/ton. The cost of anthracite increased slightly, the coal price continued to rise, the soda ash price center moved down, and the profit weakened [7] 1.2 Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash was 733,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.5%. The apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 443,000 tons (a 17.1% increase), and that for light soda ash was 289,000 tons (a 2.5% decrease). The daily output of float glass was stable, and the daily output of photovoltaic glass increased by 1,680 tons, with more kiln restarts recently [10] - Manufacturers are fulfilling previous orders, and the short - term replenishment willingness of middle and downstream enterprises is not strong. The spot price has been reduced, and the market's available spot has increased [10] 1.3 Inventory - Upstream: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,894,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,000 tons (1.5%). Among them, the inventory of light soda ash increased by 42,000 tons, and that of heavy soda ash decreased by 14,000 tons [13] - Middle - stream: The social inventory increased by 3.9% to 467,000 tons, and the growth rate of social inventory slowed down. The number of warehouse receipts was 10,192 [13] - Downstream: The soda ash inventory days of some float glass enterprises decreased, while the inventory days including goods to be delivered increased in some cases [13] 1.4 Market Performance and Strategy - The soda ash market showed a strong trend independent of its fundamentals and the black sector, driven by capital behavior. The supply increased, the rigid demand was stable, and the inventory was accumulating. The short - term is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the entry opportunity of going long FG01 and short SA01. Options should be on the sidelines [14] 2. Glass 2.1 Supply - The daily output of float glass was 159,600 tons, remaining stable week - on - week, with 223 production lines. The weekly average profit of float glass using different fuels decreased [17] - As the futures price fell, the social inventory was released, and some downstream enterprises mainly consumed their own inventory. The supply was sufficient, the upstream inventory increased, and enterprises reduced prices [17] 2.2 Demand - As the futures price fell, the supply from term traders was released, negatively affecting the spot market. Both middle - stream and downstream inventories were relatively sufficient, and the short - term replenishment willingness was not strong. The deep - processing orders did not improve significantly [20] - As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days, a week - on - week increase of 2.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%. The deep - processing profit was still low [20] 2.3 Market Performance and Strategy - The glass market showed a fluctuating trend this week, with prices following the soda ash market. The spot price reduction was mainly reflected in the reverse - spread monthly difference. The short - term is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the entry opportunity of going long FG01 and short SA01. Options should be on the sidelines [23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report provides price, profit, and inventory data for glass and soda ash, as well as their contract prices and spreads, to reflect the market conditions of these two industries [1] Group 3: Glass Market Summary Price - From August 7th to 14th, 2025, the prices of 5mm glass in different regions showed various changes. For example, the price of Wuhan Changli 5mm large - plate decreased by 40.0, while the price of Shahe Great Wall 5mm large - plate increased by 17.0 [1] Contract - FG09 contract price decreased by 23.0 from August 7th to 14th, and FG01 contract price remained unchanged during the same period [1] Spread - FG 9 - 1 spread decreased by 23.0 from August 7th to 14th [1] Basis - 09 Hebei basis decreased by 148.0 from August 7th to 14th [1] Profit - North China coal - fired profit decreased by 14.3 from August 7th to 14th, and South China natural gas profit remained unchanged [1] Sales and Production - The sales - to - production ratios in different regions are as follows: Shahe 98, Hubei 97, East China 95, and South China 96 [2] Group 4: Soda Ash Market Summary Price - From August 7th to 14th, 2025, the prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda ash increased by 20.0 [1] Contract - SA05 contract price increased by 40.0 from August 7th to 14th, and SA01 contract price increased by 43.0 [1] Spread - SA09 - 01 spread decreased by 16.0 from August 7th to 14th [1] Basis - SA09 Shahe basis decreased by 7.0 from August 7th to 14th [1] Profit - North China ammonia - soda process profit increased by 9.2 from August 7th to 14th, and North China combined - soda process profit increased by 60.3 [1] Inventory - Factory inventory and delivery - warehouse inventory of soda ash continued to accumulate [1]

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Geopolitical News - The Fed's September rate - cut expectation was frustrated again. US July PPI soared to 3.3% year - on - year, the highest since February, and rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest since June 2022. Some Fed officials oppose a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September [1] - Russian President Putin said the US seeks an acceptable agreement and it's possible to reach a new arms agreement with the US, which could strengthen peace [1] - A coal mine in Changzhi, Shanxi plans to resume production on August 15, with a normal daily output of about 10,000 tons. The 19 - day shutdown affected about 190,000 tons of production [1] Group 2: Commodity Inventory and Production Data - As of August 14, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 1.8938 million tons, up 28,700 tons (1.54%) from last Thursday. Light soda ash inventory increased while heavy soda ash inventory had mixed changes [2] - As of Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's built - in total capacity was 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating total capacity was 91.79 million tons/year. The weekly operating rate rose 0.63 percentage points to 83.20% [2] Group 3: Key Commodities and Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on are urea, crude oil, polysilicon, Shanghai copper, and plastic [3] - Different commodity sectors had various performance. For example, the non - metallic building materials sector rose 2.87%, the precious metals sector rose 26.95%, and the oilseeds and oils sector rose 13.12% [6] Group 4: Asset Class Performance - Different asset classes had different daily, monthly, and yearly performance. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.46%, a monthly increase of 2.61%, and a yearly increase of 9.39% [8][9] - In fixed - income, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures all had negative performance [9] - In commodities, WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 2.00%, a monthly decline of 7.69%, and a yearly decline of 11.15%, while London spot gold had a daily flat performance but a monthly increase of 1.99% and a yearly increase of 27.86% [9] Group 5: Stock Market Risk Preference - The stock market risk preference was presented through the relationship between the Wande All - A (ex - finance, oil and petrochemical) and the risk premium, as well as the risk premiums of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 [13][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are explicitly stated in the provided reports Glass Market Summary - **Price Changes**: Between August 6 and August 13, 2025, prices of various 5mm glass products showed different trends. For example, the price of Wuhan Changli 5mm large - plate decreased by 40.0, while the price of Shandong 5mm large - plate dropped by 100.0 [1] - **Contract Price Changes**: FG09 contract price decreased by 22.0, FG01 contract price decreased by 17.0, and FG 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.0 during the same period [1] - **Profit and Cost**:华北燃煤利润 decreased by 8.7, and华北燃煤成本 increased by 4.7 from August 6 to August 13 [1] - **Sales and Production**: Glass sales - to - production ratios were 102 in Shahe, 84 in Hubei, 96 in East China, and 88 in South China [1] Soda Ash Market Summary - **Price Changes**: From August 6 to August 13, 2025, the price of Shahe heavy - soda decreased by 10.0, and the price of Qinghai heavy - soda increased by 30.0 [1] - **Contract Price Changes**: SA05 contract price increased by 13.0, SA01 contract price increased by 13.0, and SA09 contract price decreased by 3.0 during this period [1] - **Profit and Cost**:华北氨碱利润 decreased by 22.1, and华北联碱利润 increased by 21.3 from August 6 to August 13 [1] - **Inventory Situation**: Soda ash factory inventory continued to accumulate, and delivery warehouse inventory increased slightly [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Glass - The current inventory of the mid - stream is at a high level. After the rapid decline of the futures price, the negative feedback continues, and the production and sales are weak. The near - end spot is under obvious pressure, and the low - price spot in Hubei is around 1020 yuan/ton after continuous price cuts. Further attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term rapid changes in sentiment [3]. 纯碱 - Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate. Supply - side stories, regardless of the reasons, will be repeatedly traded, increasing volatility. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches has reached a new historical high, and the cost side has increased slightly with the strong coal price. The fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand for纯碱 remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt on the cost side [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 1000 - 1400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a historical percentile of 97.8% over 3 years. The monthly price range forecast for纯碱 is 1100 - 1500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a historical percentile of 75.6% over 3 years [1]. Hedging Strategies Glass - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory and worried about price decline, they can short glass futures (FG2601) with a 50% ratio at 1450 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (FG601C1420) with a 50% ratio at 50 - 60 yuan to reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises. - **Purchase Management**: For those with low purchase inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy glass futures (FG2601) with a 50% ratio at 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton to prevent price increases. They can also sell put options (FG601P1100) with a 50% ratio at 40 - 50 yuan to reduce costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the price falls [1]. 纯碱 - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory and worried about price decline, they can short soda ash futures (SA2601) with a 50% ratio at 1550 - 1600 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SA601C1600) with a 50% ratio at 60 - 70 yuan to reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises. - **Purchase Management**: For those with low purchase inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy soda ash futures (SA2601) with a 50% ratio at 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton to prevent price increases. They can also sell put options (SA601P1200) with a 50% ratio at 50 - 60 yuan to reduce costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the price falls [1]. Core Contradictions - There is a contradiction between macro - expectations and industrial logic. The 09 contract is facing delivery, and near - month trading is returning to reality [2]. 利多解读 - The increase in coal prices raises costs. There are still policy expectations, and supply - side stories may be repeatedly traded [2]. 利空解读 - The inventory of the upper and middle reaches is high, leading to a negative feedback. The actual demand is average [2]. Price and Spread Data Glass - On August 13, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1308, 1061, and 1214 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 22, 12, and 26 yuan/ton and daily decline rates of 1.65%, 1.12%, and 2.1% respectively. The spot prices of some glass products in different regions also had slight fluctuations [6][7]. 纯碱 - On August 13, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1437, 1276, and 1383 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 25, 16, and 26 yuan/ton and daily decline rates of 1.71%, 1.24%, and 1.85% respectively. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were relatively stable, with only a few regions showing price changes [7][8][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From August 1 to August 8, 2025, prices of various 5mm glass products decreased, e.g., the price of the 5mm large - plate of Shahe Anquan dropped from 1207.0 to 1173.0, a decrease of 34.0; the price of the 5mm large - plate of Wuhan Changli decreased from 1240.0 to 1200.0, a decrease of 40.0 [1] - **Profit Changes**: Profits of different glass production methods and contracts also changed. For example, the profit of North China coal - fired glass decreased from 304.6 to 249.2, a decrease of 55.4; the profit of 09FG contract natural gas decreased from - 267.0 to - 304.5, a decrease of 37.5 [1] - **Spot Market**: Shahe factory's glass sales were average, with Shahe traders' low - price products around 1150 and poor sales; Hubei's factory price was around 1020, and the Hubei 09 futures - spot price difference was - 30 to 40, with poor transactions [1] - **Production and Sales**: The production - sales ratios of glass in different regions were as follows: Shahe 82, Hubei 56, East China 87, and South China 99 [2] Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From August 1 to August 8, 2025, prices of different types of soda ash changed. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased from 1250.0 to 1240.0, a decrease of 10.0; the price of Central China heavy soda decreased from 1200.0 to 1140.0, a decrease of 60.0 [1] - **Profit Changes**: Profits of different soda ash production methods also changed. For example, the profit of North China ammonia - soda method decreased from - 99.7 to - 132.8, a decrease of 33.1; the profit of North China combined - soda method decreased from - 192.9 to - 220.6, a decrease of 27.7 [1] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of heavy soda at the Hebei delivery warehouse was around 1240, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1280. Downstream customers were reluctant to accept high prices, with an intended price of 1220 - 1250 for delivery. Futures - spot transactions were average [1] - **Industry Situation**: Factory inventories continued to accumulate, and there were rumors of potential environmental protection actions in Qinghai, but the industry could not confirm them [1]