1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation, widen the price difference between different oil grades in the Red Sea region before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits when the price is high [5]. - For urea, due to the expected increase in production in the first quarter and limited positive impact on quotas, short it when the price is high as the fundamental outlook is bearish [8]. - For rubber, treat BR as strong in the short term. If BR turns weak, consider shorting RU. Hedge by buying NR and shorting RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the narrative is turning to expectations. It may rebound before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of the excessive rise [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, with the easing of the Middle East conflict, the valuation repair space for styrene is shrinking. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [20]. - For polyethylene, with the cooling of the Middle East conflict, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the price is high [23]. - For polypropylene, the short - term market is dominated by the geopolitical conflict, and the long - term contradiction is shifting from cost to production mismatch [26]. - For PX, although the current load is high, it is expected to decline significantly in March, and the medium - term supply - demand structure is strong. However, beware of the short - term excessive rise [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter the inventory - reduction cycle. The PXN still has room for upward valuation in the context of the Middle East situation, but be cautious of the short - term excessive rise [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline. However, be cautious of the short - term excessive rise [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 80.30 yuan/barrel, a 10.76% decline, at 666.30 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 51.00 yuan/ton, a 1.15% decline, to 4386.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil fell 91.00 yuan/ton, an 1.82% decline, to 4908.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategic Views**: Start a bearish strategic allocation, widen the price difference between different oil grades in the Red Sea region before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: In the spot market, prices in Jiangsu changed by - 285 yuan/ton, Shandong (Lunan) by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 130 yuan/ton, Hebei by 195 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 120 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 209.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2549 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 629 yuan [4]. - **Strategic Views**: Since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits when the price is high [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: In the spot market, prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei changed by 20 yuan/ton, Hebei and Shanxi by 0 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at 4 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 49 yuan/ton, closing at 1856 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategic Views**: Due to the expected increase in production in the first quarter and limited positive impact on quotas, short it when the price is high as the fundamental outlook is bearish [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The macro - situation led to a rise in crude oil, driving up the price of butadiene and butadiene rubber (BR). The price of BR rose much more than that of natural rubber, which had a positive impact on the prices of RU and NR. The overall market changed rapidly, and there were different views on the market trend. As of March 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 66.41%, up 34.11 percentage points from the previous week and down 2.35 percentage points year - on - year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 73.52%, up 35.17 percentage points from the previous week and down 8.89 percentage points year - on - year. As of February 23, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.6 million tons, a 5.4% increase from the previous month. As of February 24, 2026, the inventory in Qingdao increased by 6.28 million tons to 67.21 million tons [11][12]. - **Strategic Views**: Treat BR as strong in the short term. If BR turns weak, consider shorting RU. Hedge by buying NR and shorting RU2609. Trade in the short - term according to the market and set stop - losses [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 237 yuan, closing at 5229 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4980 (- 780) yuan/ton, the basis was - 249 (- 483) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 89 (+ 22) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2450 (+ 125) yuan/ton, and the price of semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.1%, a 1% decrease from the previous period. The downstream operating rate was 35.8%, a 18.7% increase from the previous period. The factory inventory was 45.8 million tons (- 4.6), and the social inventory was 140.4 million tons (+ 5.1) [15]. - **Strategic Views**: Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the narrative is turning to expectations. It may rebound before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of the excessive rise [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China was 7685 yuan/ton, a 1740 - yuan/ton decline. The closing price of the active contract was 8007 yuan/ton, a 1740 - yuan/ton decline. The basis of pure benzene was - 322 yuan/ton, a 1592 - yuan/ton reduction. The spot price of styrene was 12000 yuan/ton, a 3000 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active contract was 9915 yuan/ton, a 328 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 2085 yuan/ton, a 2672 - yuan/ton strengthening. The BZN spread was 186 yuan/ton, a 5.62 - yuan/ton decline. The profit of non - integrated EB units was 750.85 yuan/ton, a 535.6 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 74.11%, a 0.13% decrease. The inventory in Jiangsu ports was 17.56 million tons, a 1.75 - million - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79%, a 10.34% increase [19]. - **Strategic Views**: With the easing of the Middle East conflict, the valuation repair space for styrene is shrinking. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 7767 yuan/ton, a 177 - yuan/ton decline. The spot price was 7650 yuan/ton, a 1750 - yuan/ton decline. The basis was - 117 yuan/ton, a 1573 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 86.73%, a 0.54% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 53.62 million tons, a 4.35 - million - ton decrease, and the trader inventory was 5.77 million tons, a 1.08 - million - ton increase. The downstream average operating rate was 20%, a 1.78% increase. The LL5 - 9 spread was 323 yuan/ton, a 135 - yuan/ton expansion [22]. - **Strategic Views**: With the cooling of the Middle East conflict, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the price is high [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 7820 yuan/ton, a 214 - yuan/ton decline. The spot price was 7900 yuan/ton, a 1450 - yuan/ton decline. The basis was 80 yuan/ton, a 1236 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 73.61%, a 0.54% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 65.51 million tons, an 8.48 - million - ton decrease, the trader inventory was 21.26 million tons, a 3.71 - million - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 8.14 million tons, a 0.72 - million - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 36.74%, an 8.49% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 53 yuan/ton, a 37 - yuan/ton expansion. The PP5 - 9 spread was 495 yuan/ton, a 146 - yuan/ton expansion [25]. - **Strategic Views**: The short - term market is dominated by the geopolitical conflict, and the long - term contradiction is shifting from cost to production mismatch [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 126 yuan, closing at 8902 yuan. The PX CFR fell 195 US dollars, to 1151 US dollars. The basis was 249 yuan (- 1452), and the 5 - 7 spread was 324 yuan (+ 20). The operating load in China was 90.4%, a 2% decrease, and the Asian load was 83.2%, a 1.7% decrease. Some domestic and overseas units were under maintenance or reduced production. The PTA load was 81%, a 4.4% increase. In February, South Korea's PX exports to China were 41.5 million tons, a 0.7 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of January was 464 million tons, a 1 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. The PXN was 303 US dollars (+ 20), the South Korean PX - MX was 129 US dollars (- 11), and the naphtha cracking spread was 92 US dollars (- 54) [28]. - **Strategic Views**: Although the current load is high, it is expected to decline significantly in March, and the medium - term supply - demand structure is strong. However, beware of the short - term excessive rise [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 116 yuan, closing at 6200 yuan. The East China spot price fell 1020 yuan, to 6180 yuan. The basis was - 15 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was 300 yuan (+ 54). The PTA load was 81%, a 4.4% increase. Some units were under maintenance or resumed production. The downstream load was 83.5%, a 4% increase. The terminal operating rates of texturing and weaving increased. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 27 was 259.7 million tons, a 9.5 - million - ton increase. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 15 yuan, to 176 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 34 yuan, to 360 yuan [31]. - **Strategic Views**: It is difficult to enter the inventory - reduction cycle. The PXN still has room for upward valuation in the context of the Middle East situation, but be cautious of the short - term excessive rise [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 292 yuan, closing at 4305 yuan. The East China spot price fell 405 yuan, to 4408 yuan. The basis was 2 yuan (- 35), and the 5 - 9 spread was 6 yuan (- 100). The supply - side load was 73.3%, a 5.7% decrease, with some domestic and overseas units under maintenance or reduced production. The downstream load was 83.5%, a 4% increase. The terminal operating rates of texturing and weaving increased. The import arrival forecast was 7.8 million tons, and the East China departure was 1 million tons on March 9. The port inventory was 106.8 million tons, a 6.6 - million - ton increase. The naphtha - based production profit was - 1673 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 724 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 661 yuan. The cost of ethylene rose to 950 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 580 yuan [33]. - **Strategic Views**: The load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline. However, be cautious of the short - term excessive rise [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a short - position strategic allocation. Before Libya's mid - year production increase, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread and the Es Sider - Bonny/Girassol north - south spread at low prices. Short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, it already fully includes the current geopolitical premium, and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to take profits at high prices [5]. - For urea, despite the expected increase in downstream demand, the supply - demand is in a state of both growth. Considering the high price and demand expectations, there is no significant positive impact on the quota. The fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is advisable to short at high prices [8]. - For rubber, in the short term, treat BR as strong. If BR turns weak, consider short - selling RU. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and make quick trades. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue holding positions by buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the short - term fundamentals are weak, but the narrative logic is shifting to expectations. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price is expected to rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before observing the opportunity to go long [21]. - For polyethylene, the futures price is rising. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has decreased. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the demand is recovering seasonally [24]. - For polypropylene, the futures price is rising. The supply pressure is relieved, and the downstream demand is rebounding seasonally. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [26]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline significantly in March, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The supply - demand structure is strong, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and the PXN is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the foreign device maintenance volume has increased significantly, and the domestic market is entering the maintenance season. The load is expected to decline, and the import volume is expected to decrease significantly in March. The port inventory is expected to turn to de - stocking, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 112.10 yuan/barrel, a 16.99% increase, at 771.80 yuan/barrel. The high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 660.00 yuan/ton, a 16.98% increase, to 4548.00 yuan/ton. The low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 656.00 yuan/ton, a 14.99% increase, to 5032.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Start a short - position strategic allocation. Before Libya's mid - year production increase, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread and the Es Sider - Bonny/Girassol north - south spread at low prices. Short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia changed by 340 yuan/ton, 345 yuan/ton, 265 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton, and 185 yuan/ton respectively. The main contract changed by 303.00 yuan/ton, at 2830 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 495 yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: It already fully includes the current geopolitical premium, and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to take profits at high prices [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China changed by - 20 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively. The overall basis was reported at - 55 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by 75 yuan/ton, at 1905 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: Despite the expected increase in downstream demand, the supply - demand is in a state of both growth. Considering the high price and demand expectations, there is no significant positive impact on the quota. The fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is advisable to short at high prices [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The sharp rise in crude oil due to the macro - situation drove up the price of downstream butadiene, and the price of butadiene rubber (BR) increased significantly. The increase in BR was much greater than that of natural rubber, which had a positive impact on the prices of rubber RU and NR. The market is changing rapidly, driven by macro factors and funds. The future trend of rubber is uncertain. Bulls believe in factors such as limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand in China, while bears think the macro - situation is uncertain, supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. As of March 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 66.41%, 34.11 percentage points higher than last week and 2.35 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.52%, 35.17 percentage points higher than last week and 8.89 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The overall factory has resumed production, but the export orders in the geopolitically affected areas have slowed down. As of February 23, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 136.6 million tons, a 7 - million - ton increase from the previous month, a 5.4% increase. As of February 24, 2026, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 6.28 million tons to 67.21 million tons compared with before the holiday. The spot prices of Thai standard mixed rubber, STR20, and STR20 mixed increased, and the prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang and cis - polybutadiene in North China also increased [11][12][13]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, treat BR as strong. If BR turns weak, consider short - selling RU. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and make quick trades. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue holding positions by buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 190 yuan, at 5466 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5700 (+680) yuan/ton, the basis was 234 (+490) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 111 (-25) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2325 (+225) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 870 (+20) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 655 (+21) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.1%, a 1% decrease from the previous month, including 80.7% for the calcium carbide method and 82.2% for the ethylene method, both with a 1% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 35.8%, a 18.7% increase from the previous month. The factory inventory was 45.8 million tons (-4.6), and the social inventory was 140.4 million tons (+5.1) [16]. - **Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are weak, but the narrative logic is shifting to expectations. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price is expected to rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China was 10000 yuan/ton, a 2325 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 8155 yuan/ton, a 2325 - yuan/ton increase. The pure benzene basis was 1845 yuan/ton, a 1716 - yuan/ton increase. The spot price of styrene was 12000 yuan/ton, a 3000 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active styrene contract was 9587 yuan/ton, a 678 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 2413 yuan/ton, a 2322 - yuan/ton increase. The BZN spread was 191.62 yuan/ton, a 29 - yuan/ton increase. The non - integrated device profit of EB was 661 yuan/ton, an 888.25 - yuan/ton increase. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton decrease. The upstream operating rate was 74.11%, a 0.13% decrease. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 17.56 million tons, a 1.75 - million - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S was 40.79%, a 10.34% increase. The PS operating rate was 51.50%, a 2.10% increase, the EPS operating rate was 58.76%, a 46.59% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 69.50%, a 1.20% decrease [20]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before observing the opportunity to go long [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 7944 yuan/ton, a 253 - yuan/ton increase. The spot price was 9400 yuan/ton, a 1925 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 1456 yuan/ton, a 1672 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 86.73%, a 0.54% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 53.62 million tons, a 4.35 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, and the trader inventory was 5.77 million tons, a 1.08 - million - ton increase. The downstream average operating rate was 20%, a 1.78% increase. The LL5 - 9 spread was 188 yuan/ton, a 47 - yuan/ton decrease [23]. - **Strategy**: The futures price is rising. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has decreased. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the demand is recovering seasonally [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8034 yuan/ton, a 237 - yuan/ton increase. The spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, a 1600 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 1316 yuan/ton, a 1363 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 73.61%, a 0.54% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 65.51 million tons, an 8.48 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, the trader inventory was 21.26 million tons, a 3.71 - million - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 8.14 million tons, a 0.72 - million - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 36.74%, an 8.49% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 90 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan/ton increase. The PP5 - 9 spread was 349 yuan/ton, a 58 - yuan/ton decrease [25]. - **Strategy**: The futures price is rising. The supply pressure is relieved, and the downstream demand is rebounding seasonally. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 358 yuan, at 9028 yuan. The PX CFR rose 267 US dollars, at 1346 US dollars. The basis was 1701 yuan (+1787), and the 5 - 7 spread was 304 yuan (+52). The PX load in China was 90.4%, a 2% decrease, and the Asian load was 83.2%, a 1.7% decrease. Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2.5 - million - ton device was under maintenance, Daxie stopped production, South Korea's S - oil 770,000 - ton device was under maintenance, and GS's 550,000 - ton device reduced its load. The PTA load was 81%, a 4.4% increase. In February, South Korea exported 41.5 million tons of PX to China, a 0.7 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of January was 4.64 billion tons, a 1 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. The PXN was 301 US dollars (+20), the South Korean PX - MX was 129 US dollars (-11), and the naphtha cracking spread was 92 US dollars (-54) [28]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline significantly in March, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The supply - demand structure is strong, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 246 yuan, at 6316 yuan. The East China spot price rose 1335 yuan, at 7200 yuan. The basis was - 15 yuan (+22), and the 5 - 9 spread was 246 yuan (+46). The PTA load was 81%, a 4.4% increase. The downstream load was 83.5%, a 4% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 27 was 259.7 million tons, a 9.5 - million - ton increase. The PTA spot processing fee decreased by 72 yuan to 162 yuan, and the on - market processing fee increased by 11 yuan to 394 yuan [31]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and the PXN is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 220 yuan, at 4597 yuan. The East China spot price rose 546 yuan, at 4813 yuan. The basis was 37 yuan (+48), and the 5 - 9 spread was 106 yuan (+46). The ethylene glycol load was 73.3%, a 5.7% decrease, including 83% for the syngas - to - ethylene - glycol method, a 1% decrease, and 67.9% for the ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol method, an 8.3% decrease. Many domestic and foreign devices were under maintenance or reduced their loads. The downstream load was 83.5%, a 4% increase. The import arrival forecast was 10.8 million tons, and the East China departure volume on March 8 was 1.38 million tons. The port inventory was 106.8 million tons, a 6.6 - million - ton increase. The naphtha - to - ethylene - glycol profit was - 1794 yuan, the domestic ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol profit was - 918 yuan, and the coal - to - ethylene - glycol profit was - 273 yuan. The price of ethylene increased to 850 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines decreased to 580 yuan [34]. - **Strategy**: The foreign device maintenance volume has increased significantly, and the domestic market is entering the maintenance season. The load is expected to decline, and the import volume is expected to decrease significantly in March. The port inventory is expected to turn to de - stocking, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - For crude oil, the current price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short - term, the supply gap from Iran remains. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, a mid - term layout approach is recommended, waiting for the end of geopolitical tensions to eliminate tail risks [1][2]. - For methanol, it has fully incorporated the current geopolitical premium. With no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to take profits at high prices [4]. - For urea, despite the positive downstream demand expectations, the supply - demand situation is in a state of both supply and demand being strong. The marginal influence is mostly about quotas, and there is little positive impact on quotas. The fundamentals of urea are expected to turn negative, so it is advisable to short at high prices [6][7]. - For rubber, the market is driven by macro and capital factors. The future trend faces a crucial test. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue holding positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [9][12]. - For PVC, the comprehensive corporate profit is at a neutral level. The supply reduction is small, and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand has not fully recovered from the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. The cancellation of export tax rebates has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term fundamental support. The overall situation is a domestic supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and the short - term rebound is driven by crude oil cost sentiment [14][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, the spot and futures prices of both have risen. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is limited. Wait for the profit to fall to a low level before considering long - entry opportunities [16][17]. - For polyethylene, due to geopolitical conflicts, the spot and futures prices have increased. The PE valuation has room to decline. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the demand side is expected to recover seasonally [19][20]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The supply pressure will be relieved in the first half of 2026 with no new capacity plans. The downstream start - up rate has a strong seasonal rebound. In the short - term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward trends to production - mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [21][23]. - For p - xylene (PX), the current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans with a low overall load. In the short - term, PX will maintain a stockpiling pattern. In March, as PX enters the maintenance season and PTA plants restart unexpectedly, PX will gradually enter a de - stocking cycle. Mid - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil [25][26]. - For PTA, as the maintenance expectations decline, it is difficult for PTA to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has declined, and there is room for valuation increase in the mid - term. It is recommended to follow PX and crude oil to go long at low prices [28][29]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still relatively high. Although the import is expected to decline in March, the port stockpiling pressure is still large. In the mid - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. The valuation is currently moderately low year - on - year. With the tense situation in Iran, there is an expectation of significant import reduction and de - stocking. It is advisable to pay attention to long - entry opportunities at low prices [30][31]. 3. Summary of Each Product Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures rose 61.30 yuan/barrel, or 12.00%, to 572.30 yuan/barrel. Chinese weekly crude oil data showed a decrease in crude oil arrival inventory by 1.43 million barrels to 199.82 million barrels, a decrease in gasoline commercial inventory by 0.42 million barrels to 94.58 million barrels, an increase in diesel commercial inventory by 9.22 million barrels to 111.99 million barrels, and an increase in total refined oil commercial inventory by 8.80 million barrels to 206.58 million barrels [1]. - **Strategy View**: Mid - term layout is recommended, waiting for the end of geopolitical tensions to eliminate tail risks [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 254.00 yuan/ton, reported at 2557 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 351 yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: Take profits at high prices as it has fully incorporated the geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, and Shanxi changed by 30 yuan/ton; in Hebei and Hubei by 20 yuan/ton; and in the Northeast remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at 21 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 2 yuan/ton, reported at 1819 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy View**: Short at high prices as the fundamentals are expected to turn negative [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock market and commodities generally declined, and rubber tumbled. The future trend faces a crucial test. The long side believes in limited rubber production increase in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved Chinese demand expectations; the short side believes in uncertain macro - expectations, increased supply, and seasonal off - season demand. As of February 26, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 32.30%, and that of semi - steel tires was 38.35%. As of February 23, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.6 million tons, and as of February 24, 2026, the inventory in Qingdao increased by 6.28 million tons to 67.21 million tons [9][10]. - **Strategy View**: Trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, buy the NR main contract and short the RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 71 yuan to 4939 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (+50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 259 (- 21) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 121 (+11) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 82.1%, with the calcium - carbide method at 81.7% (down 0.3% month - on - month) and the ethylene method at 83.2% (up 0.7% month - on - month). The overall downstream operating rate was 17.1% (up 17.1% month - on - month). The factory inventory was 50.4 million tons (- 0.1), and the social inventory was 135.3 million tons (+1) [14]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, and the short - term rebound is driven by crude oil cost sentiment [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene price was 6620 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton. The pure benzene active contract closing price was 6761 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton. The pure benzene basis was - 141 yuan/ton, narrowing by 70 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price was 8150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton, and the active contract closing price was 8081 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton. The basis was 69 yuan/ton, strengthening by 35 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 158 yuan/ton, up 17.63 yuan/ton. The EB non - integrated device profit was - 218.3 yuan/ton, down 58.6 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.24%, up 3.16%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 17.56 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons. The three - S weighted operating rate was 30.45%, up 2.72%, the PS operating rate was 49.40% (down 0.30%), the EPS operating rate was 12.18% (up 12.18%), and the ABS operating rate was 70.70% (up 1.80%) [16]. - **Strategy View**: Wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before considering long - entry opportunities [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 7200 yuan/ton, up 209 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7075 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan/ton. The basis was - 125 yuan/ton, strengthening by 66 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 86.88%, down 0.76%. The production enterprise inventory was 57.97 million tons, an increase of 23.60 million tons, and the trader inventory was 4.69 million tons, an increase of 2.32 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 18.22%, down 1.58%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 17 yuan/ton, widening by 97 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure has been relieved, and the demand side is expected to recover seasonally [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 7223 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7125 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan/ton. The basis was - 98 yuan/ton, strengthening by 85 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.91%, up 0.26%. The production enterprise inventory was 73.99 million tons, an increase of 34.87 million tons, the trader inventory was 24.97 million tons, an increase of 7.3 million tons, and the port inventory was 8.86 million tons, an increase of 1.57 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 36.74%, up 8.49%. The LL - PP spread was - 23 yuan/ton, narrowing by 16 yuan/ton, and the PP5 - 9 spread was 54 yuan/ton, widening by 76 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Strategy View**: Go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices as the supply pressure is relieved and the downstream start - up rate has a strong seasonal rebound [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 148 yuan to 7984 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 20 US dollars to 1019 US dollars. The basis was 130 yuan (- 6), and the 5 - 7 spread was 50 yuan (+16). The Chinese PX load was 92.4% (up 0.4%), and the Asian load was 84.9% (up 1.2%). A 2.5 - million - tonne unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical was under maintenance, and Jinling Petrochemical's maintenance plan was postponed, while an overseas plant in Kuwait restarted. The PTA load was 76.6% (up 1.8%). In February, South Korea's PX exports to China were 41.5 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of December was 465 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons month - on - month. The PXN was 295 US dollars (- 4), the South Korean PX - MX was 143 US dollars (- 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 100 US dollars (- 14) [25]. - **Strategy View**: Mid - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil as it will gradually enter a de - stocking cycle [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 302 yuan to 5552 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 220 yuan to 5375 yuan. The basis was - 55 yuan (+5), and the 5 - 9 spread was 14 yuan (+40). The PTA load was 76.6% (up 1.8%). The downstream load was 79.5% (up 1.9%). On February 27, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 259.7 million tons, an increase of 9.5 million tons. The PTA spot processing fee fell 131 yuan to 145 yuan, and the on - market processing fee rose 12 yuan to 412 yuan [28]. - **Strategy View**: Follow PX and crude oil to go long at low prices in the mid - term as it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle and there is room for valuation increase [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 100 yuan to 4025 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 141 yuan to 3894 yuan. The basis was - 56 yuan (+13), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 48 yuan (+59). The ethylene glycol load was 79% (up 2%), with the syngas - based production at 84% (up 4.1%) and the ethylene - based production at 76.2% (up 0.8%). Some domestic and overseas plants had changes in their operating status. The downstream load was 79.5% (up 1.9%). The import arrival forecast was 10.8 million tons, and the East China departure on March 2 was 0.37 million tons. The port inventory was 100.2 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons. The naphtha - based production profit was - 1451 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 832 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was - 273 yuan. The cost - side ethylene price rose to 750 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth steam coal price rebounded to 670 yuan [30]. - **Strategy View**: Pay attention to long - entry opportunities at low prices due to the tense Iran situation and potential de - stocking [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current oil prices have seen a certain increase and factored in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply gap from Iran remains, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [3]. - For methanol, the downward momentum persists, but the negative factors are weakening at the margin, so the downward space is limited. The main strategy is to go long on dips from a mid - term perspective [6]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching, so it is recommended to short - allocate [9]. - For rubber, it is recommended to trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. If RU is below 17,000, be cautious. For hedging, it is advisable to open new positions or continue holding positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [15]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor. Although the comprehensive corporate profit is at a neutral level, the supply reduction is small, production is at a historical high, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the only short - term support is the short - term rush for exports due to the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene is continuously increasing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, it is advisable to gradually take profits [21]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has declined. The "moderate production increase" of OPEC+ has led to an upward - trending crude oil price. The PE valuation still has downward space, and the pressure on the disk from the historical high of warehouse receipts has eased. The supply in the first half of 2026 is relatively stable, and the demand is in the off - season [24]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. There are no production capacity expansion plans in the first half of 2026, and the demand is seasonally volatile. In the context of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high, and it is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. - For PX, the current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans, so it is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [30]. - For PTA, the supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand for polyester and chemical fibers is expected to recover as it exits the off - season. The inventory - building cycle is about to end, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of inventory building and high operation. The valuation is currently moderately low year - on - year, and there is a risk of a rebound [35]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 6.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.23%, at 483.60 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined products: high - sulfur fuel oil closed up 53.00 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.81%, at 2987.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 4.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.12%, at 3460.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 15.99 million barrels to 435.80 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 3.81%; SPR replenishment was 0.00 million barrels to 415.44 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.01 million barrels to 254.83 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40%; diesel inventories increased by 0.25 million barrels to 120.35 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.11 million barrels to 23.04 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 1.44 million barrels to 42.34 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.29% [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices: Jiangsu changed by - 37 yuan/ton, Lunan by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 20 yuan/ton, Hebei by 20 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 37.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by (55.00) yuan/ton, at 2210 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 72 yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips from a mid - term perspective [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes: Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 30 yuan/ton, Hubei by 10 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 2 yuan/ton, at 1836 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - allocate [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber futures increased in volume and price, with a bullish technical pattern. Thai natural rubber spot prices generally followed the increase, but the spot price increases of butadiene and butadiene rubber were relatively small. Bulls and bears presented different views. Bulls were optimistic due to macro - level expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 12, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 44.24%, 16.70 percentage points lower than the previous week and 18.19 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 62.47%, 10.95 percentage points lower than the previous week and 11.01 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of February 8, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%. As of February 24, 2026, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 6.28 tons to 67.21 tons compared with before the Spring Festival [12][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. If RU is below 17,000, be cautious. For hedging, buy the NR main contract and short RU2609 [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 108 yuan, at 4855 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (- 40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 175 (+ 68) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 137 (- 6) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2300 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (- 50) yuan/ton, ethylene was 705 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 631 (+ 2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 80.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 81.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; the ethylene method was 76.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 13%, a month - on - month decrease of 28.5%. The in - factory inventory was 31.2 tons (+ 2.4), and the social inventory was 125.4 tons (+ 2.7) [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are poor, with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market [18]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 6108 yuan/ton, with no change. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The pure benzene basis was - 44 yuan/ton, narrowing by 22 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7578 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton; the basis was - 86 yuan/ton, weakening by 1 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 153.62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 213.975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44.125 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 tons, an increase of 0.80 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products in the demand side was 40.79%, an increase of 0.23%. The PS operating rate was 55.20%, a decrease of 0.40%; the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, an increase of 2.98%; the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a decrease of 1.70% [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, gradually take profits [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6668 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis was - 133 yuan/ton, strengthening by 33 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 37.97 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.67 tons, and the inventory of traders was 2.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 33.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.03%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 74 yuan/ton, narrowing by 11 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has declined. The "moderate production increase" of OPEC+ has led to an upward - trending crude oil price. The PE valuation still has downward space, and the pressure on the disk from the historical high of warehouse receipts has eased. The supply in the first half of 2026 is relatively stable, and the demand is in the off - season [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6705 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The basis was 45 yuan/ton, strengthening by 30 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 41.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49 tons, the inventory of traders was 18.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 tons, and the port inventory was 6.37 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 49.84%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.24%. The LL - PP spread was - 7 yuan/ton, narrowing by 73 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 17 yuan/ton, widening by 10 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has risen. The EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. There are no production capacity expansion plans in the first half of 2026, and the demand is seasonally volatile. In the context of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high, and it is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 50 yuan, at 7382 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 2 US dollars, at 931 US dollars. The basis was 47 yuan (+ 56) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 5 - 7 spread was - 12 yuan (- 14). In terms of PX load, the Chinese load was 92.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%; the Asian load was 84.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. In terms of equipment, there were few domestic changes. The maintenance plan of Jinling Petrochemical was postponed, and Zhejiang Petrochemical planned to shut down one production line for maintenance in March. Overseas, a plant in Kuwait restarted. The PTA load was 76.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. In terms of equipment, one unit of Yisheng New Materials was operating at 50% capacity, and one unit was restarted. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 33.9 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of February, a year - on - year increase of 12.4 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of December was 465 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 313 US dollars (- 7), South Korean PX - MX was 158 US dollars (+ 6), and the naphtha crack spread was 97 US dollars (+ 4) [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans, so it is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 52 yuan, at 5260 yuan. The East China spot price fell 50 yuan, at 5235 yuan. The basis was - 63 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 10 yuan (- 24). The PTA load was 76.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. In terms of equipment, one unit of Yisheng New Materials was operating at 50% capacity, and one unit was restarted. The downstream load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%. In terms of equipment, multiple units of Xin Fengming were under maintenance, a 25 - ton bottle chip unit in East China was under maintenance, and multiple units of filament and staple fiber were restarted. The terminal texturing load increased by 3% to 8%, and the loom load increased by 12% to 12%. In terms of inventory, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 24 was 250.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.9 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee fell 54 yuan to 362 yuan, and the disk processing fee fell 20 yuan to 417 yuan [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term,

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, the downward momentum remains, but the downside space is limited. The main idea is to buy on dips from a mid - term perspective [5]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Considering the expected improvement in production at the end of January, it is advisable to short - allocate [7]. - For rubber, it is recommended to trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. If RU is below 17,000, be cautious. Consider opening new positions or holding existing positions for the hedge strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support it. Pay attention to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. It is advisable to gradually take profits [18]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has declined. The PE valuation still has downward space, and the pressure on the disk from warehouse receipts has eased. The supply side has limited support, and the demand side is in a seasonal off - season [21]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The cost side may see a reduction in supply surplus, and the supply pressure has eased. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [24]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following the trend of crude oil [27]. - For PTA, the supply side has high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side is expected to pick up. The stockpiling cycle is about to end. There are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and there is pressure on port stockpiling. There is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction. There is a risk of a rebound in valuation [32]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 1.60 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.33%, at 488.30 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil main futures: high - sulfur fuel oil closed down 10.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.34%, at 2943.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 41.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.18%, at 3436.00 yuan/ton. In Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory increased by 1.91 million barrels to 9.89 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 23.99%; diesel inventory decreased by 0.30 million barrels to 3.03 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 9.12%; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.76 million barrels to 7.63 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 9.07%; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.85 million barrels to 20.55 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 4.30% [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap from Iran. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices: Jiangsu changed by - 6 yuan/ton, Lunan by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by 20 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 0 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 20.00 yuan/ton, at 2249 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 82 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward momentum of methanol remains, but the negative factors have weakened marginally, so the downside space is limited. The main idea is to buy on dips from a mid - term perspective [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes: Shandong changed by 40 yuan/ton, Henan by 20 yuan/ton, Hebei by 10 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 30 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 30 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 30 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 48 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 17 yuan/ton, at 1838 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current situation of internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Considering the expected improvement in production at the end of January, it is advisable to short - allocate [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: On the first trading day after the holiday, rubber futures saw a significant increase in positions and prices, with a bullish technical pattern. Thai natural rubber spot prices generally increased, but the spot prices of butadiene and butadiene rubber increased less. Bulls are optimistic due to macro expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 12, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 44.24%, 16.70 percentage points lower than the previous week and 18.19 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 62.47%, 10.95 percentage points lower than the previous week and 11.01 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of February 8, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%. The total social inventory of dark rubber in China was 86.4 tons, an increase of 1.4%. The total social inventory of light rubber in China was 43.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The inventory in Qingdao area increased by 1.81 tons to 60.93 tons, with an accelerating inventory accumulation rhythm [9][10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. If RU is below 17,000, be cautious. Consider opening new positions or holding existing positions for the hedge strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 15 yuan, at 4963 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4720 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 243 (- 15) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 131 (- 7) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2300 (- 50) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (- 50) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 705 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 629 (+ 11) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 81.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; the ethylene method was 76.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 13%, a month - on - month decrease of 28.5%. The in - plant inventory was 31.2 tons (+ 2.4), and the social inventory was 125.4 tons (+ 2.7) [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral level, but the reduction in supply is small, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic demand is in an off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. The cancellation of export tax - rebates has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term support for the fundamentals. The cost - side calcium carbide price has decreased, and the caustic soda price has rebounded. Overall, with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market, the domestic demand is poor, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. The fundamentals are poor. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support PVC. As the industry enters a very low - profit range, the weak fundamentals affect the industry pattern expectations. Pay attention to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost - side East China pure benzene price was 6108 yuan/ton, with no change. The closing price of the pure benzene active contract was 6152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The pure benzene basis was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 7575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The closing price of the styrene active contract was 7578 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The basis was - 86 yuan/ton, a weakening of 1 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 153.62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB units was - 213.975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44.125 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 tons, an increase of 0.80 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products on the demand side was 40.79%, an increase of 0.23%. The PS operating rate was 55.20%, a decrease of 0.40%. The EPS operating rate was 56.24%, an increase of 2.98%. The ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a decrease of 1.70% [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have both decreased, and the basis has weakened. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. The cost - side pure benzene operating rate has rebounded from a low level, and the supply is still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation on the supply side has decreased, and the styrene operating rate has fluctuated at a low level. The styrene port inventory has continued to increase. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of three S products on the demand side has fluctuated and increased. The pure benzene port inventory has decreased from a high level, and the styrene port inventory has continued to decrease. At present, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and it is advisable to gradually take profits [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6777 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6635 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis was - 215 yuan/ton, a weakening of 9 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.67 tons. The trader inventory was 2.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 33.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.03%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has decreased. OPEC+ has announced plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The polyethylene spot price has not changed, and the PE valuation still has downward space. The number of warehouse receipts has decreased from a historical high, reducing the pressure on the disk. On the supply side, only one BASF plant has been put into operation in the first half of 2026, and the coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, providing support for the price. In the seasonal off - season, the raw material inventory of agricultural films on the demand side may reach its peak, and the overall operating rate has fluctuated downward [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6720 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6735 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis was 15 yuan/ton, a weakening of 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49 tons. The trader inventory was 18.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 tons. The port inventory was 6.37 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 49.84%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.24%. The LL - PP spread was 57 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 23 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2 yuan/ton [22][23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has risen. The EIA monthly report predicts that global oil inventories will slightly decrease, and the supply surplus may ease. On the supply side, there are no capacity expansion plans in the first half of 2026, reducing the pressure. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate fluctuates seasonally. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions. The number of warehouse receipts is at a historical high. When the oversupply situation changes in the first quarter of next year, the disk price may bottom out. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 46 yuan, at 7432 yuan. The PX CFR fell 4 US dollars, at 929 US dollars. The basis was - 9 yuan (+ 4) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 5 - 7 spread was 2 yuan (- 14). In terms of PX load, the Chinese load was 92%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%; the Asian load was 83.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. Regarding the equipment, Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and Zhejiang Petrochemical increased its load. The PTA load was 74.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8%. Regarding the equipment, Dushan Energy was under maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 33.9 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of February, a year - on - year increase of 12.4 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of December was 465 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 320 US dollars (+ 14), the South Korean PX - MX was 152 US dollars (+ 3), and the naphtha crack spread was 93 US dollars (- 4) [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, the PX load remains at a high level, and there are many maintenance activities for downstream PTA, with a relatively low overall load center. It is expected that PX will maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The current valuation center has risen, and the short - process profit is also high. However, overall, the supply - demand structure of PX and downstream PTA is strong after the Spring Festival, and the mid - term outlook is good. The repair of PTA processing fees has also further expanded the PXN space. For the subsequent valuation to rise further, it is necessary for the downstream polyester start - up and raw material equipment maintenance efforts after the Spring Festival to meet expectations. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the trend of crude oil in the mid - term [2

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current oil prices have risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. Given the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a significant number of negative factors. With potential short - term geopolitical fluctuations overseas, previous short positions should take profits, and short - term observation is recommended [5]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differentials has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching, so short positions on rallies are recommended [8]. - For rubber, approaching the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce risk, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. During the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a hedging position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity reduction expectations, and export rush support PVC. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, positions can be gradually liquidated [21]. - For polyethylene, OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene has declined, and there is still room for PE valuation to decline. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate is declining [24]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. The number of warehouse receipts is at a high level in the same period of history. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and there are opportunities to go long following crude oil on dips after the Spring Festival [30]. - For PTA, it enters the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to remain high, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [33]. - For ethylene glycol, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction under the pressure of inventory accumulation and high production. The valuation is moderately low year - on - year, and there is a risk of rebound [35]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 0.90 yuan/barrel, or 0.19%, to 476.80 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 8.53 million barrels to 428.83 million barrels, a 2.03% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Lunan, Henan, and Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 10.00 yuan/ton to 2231 yuan/ton, and MTO profit decreased by 10 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and other regions remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 46 yuan/ton to 1843 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 63 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market rebounded with the commodity market. Bulls were optimistic due to macro, seasonal, and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.94%, and that of semi - steel tires was 73.42% [11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 52 yuan to 4938 yuan. The overall operating rate was 79.3%, an increase of 0.3%. The downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a decrease of 3.3%. Factory inventory was 28.8 tons (- 0.2), and social inventory was 122.7 tons (+ 2.1) [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China rose 87.5 yuan/ton to 6103 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene fell 150 yuan/ton to 7550 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68%. Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.80 million tons to 10.86 million tons [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6787 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6585 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a decrease of 0.27%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.67 million tons to 37.97 million tons [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6693 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a decrease of 0.01%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 1.49 million tons to 41.58 million tons [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 62 yuan to 7202 yuan. China's PX load was 92%, an increase of 2.5%. Asian load was 83.7%, an increase of 1.3%. In early February, South Korea's PX exports to China were 17.5 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons year - on - year [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 40 yuan to 5220 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 25 yuan to 5205 yuan. The PTA load was 74.8%, a decrease of 2.8%. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 6 was 232.6 million tons, an increase of 21 million tons [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 41 yuan to 3723 yuan. The spot price in East China fell 13 yuan to 3639 yuan. The supply - side load was 76.8%, an increase of 0.7%. Port inventory increased by 3.8 million tons to 93.5 million tons [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply gap caused by Iran's supply disruption still exists. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the current oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and the main operation idea should be mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it is believed that it does not contain a high geopolitical premium, and the price has support below. Those who shorted earlier can take profit at low levels [5]. - Regarding urea, the current situation of internal and external price differences has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected recovery of production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short at high levels [7]. - For rubber, the short - term price is determined by capital and has a low correlation with fundamentals. The price is expected to fluctuate significantly following the commodity market. It is recommended to trade short - term on the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. The strategy of buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 can resume building positions [9][12]. - For PVC, the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral - to - low level. The supply reduction is small, and the production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is entering the off - season, and the demand is under pressure. The cancellation of export tax rebates has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term fundamental support. The overall situation is that supply exceeds demand in China, and the fundamentals are poor. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush sentiment support PVC. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the spot and futures prices of pure benzene have declined, and the basis has widened. The spot price of styrene has risen, and the futures price has declined, and the basis has strengthened. The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively high level, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene has continued to accumulate significantly. It is recommended to gradually take profit [18][19]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has declined. OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene has not changed, and there is still room for PE valuation to decline. The coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, which supports the price. It is the off - season, and the demand side is weak [21][22]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has declined. The EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply surplus may ease. There is no capacity expansion plan in the first half of 2026, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The downstream production rate fluctuates seasonally. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [23][24]. - For PX, the current load is at a high level, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans, with a low overall load center. It is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The valuation center has risen, and the short - term profit is also high. The supply - demand structure of both PX and downstream PTA is strong after the Spring Festival, and the medium - term outlook is good. It is recommended to follow the oil price and go long at low levels [25][26]. - For PTA, the supply side maintains a high maintenance rate in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber is affected by the off - season, with the load gradually decreasing. PTA enters the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. The processing fee has increased significantly, with a large proportion of expected factors. There is a risk of processing fee callback in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to go long at low levels and pay attention to the rhythm [28][29]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still relatively high, and the import volume in February is expected to remain high. The port inventory accumulation cycle will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction under the pressure of inventory accumulation and high production. The current valuation is neutral - to - low, and there is a risk of rebound due to the tense situation in Iran and the rebound of coal prices [31][32]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 5.20 yuan/barrel, a 1.13% increase, at 463.50 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed up 48.00 yuan/ton, a 1.73% increase, at 2824.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 39.00 yuan/ton, a 1.20% increase, at 3285.00 yuan/ton. According to the US EIA weekly data, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.46 million barrels to 420.30 million barrels, a 0.82% decrease; the SPR increased by 0.21 million barrels to 415.21 million barrels, a 0.05% increase; gasoline inventory increased by 0.69 million barrels to 257.90 million barrels, a 0.27% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 5.55 million barrels to 127.37 million barrels, a 4.18% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.17 million barrels to 23.69 million barrels, a 0.72% increase; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.66 million barrels to 42.38 million barrels, a 1.54% decrease [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply gap caused by Iran's supply disruption still exists. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the current oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and the main operation idea should be mid - term layout [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 25 yuan/ton, in Lunan by - 10 yuan/ton, in Henan by 5 yuan/ton, in Hebei by - 30 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by 12.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 33.00 yuan/ton, at 2225 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 12 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is believed that methanol does not contain a high geopolitical premium, and the price has support below. Those who shorted earlier can take profit at low levels [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 0 yuan/ton, in Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 0 yuan/ton, and in Northeast China by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 18 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 9 yuan/ton, at 1778 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current situation of internal and external price differences has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected recovery of production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short at high levels [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market is priced by capital and has a low correlation with fundamentals. The bulls believe that the rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, the rubber price usually rises in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. The bears believe that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. As of January 29, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.41%, 0.29 percentage points lower than last week and 54.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 75.35%, 0.08 percentage points higher than last week and 53.03 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of January 25, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.2 tons, a 0.17% decrease; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 84.7 tons, a 0.4% decrease; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 42.5 tons, a 0.3% increase. As of January 30, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 1.09 tons to 59.12 tons, an 1.88% increase. In the spot market, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 15250 (+100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1950 (+20) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1955 (30) US dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 10400 (+0) yuan, and North China butadiene rubber was 12400 (0) yuan [9][10][11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price is expected to fluctuate significantly following the commodity market. It is recommended to trade short - term on the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. The strategy of buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 can resume building positions [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 103 yuan, at 5052 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4850 (-50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 202 (+53) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 109 (-10) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 698 (-2) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 589 (-1) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 78.9%, a 0.2% increase; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.6%, a 0.6% increase; the ethylene method was 75%, a 0.7% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.8%, a 0.1% decrease. The factory inventory was 29 tons (-1.8), and the social inventory was 120.6 tons (+2.9) [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral - to - low level. The supply reduction is small, and the production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is entering the off - season, and the demand is under pressure. The cancellation of export tax rebates has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term fundamental support. The overall situation is that supply exceeds demand in China, and the fundamentals are poor. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush sentiment support PVC. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 6105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6127 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7900 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7689 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88 yuan/ton; the basis was 211 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 188 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 182.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB units was - 79.45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.8 yuan/ton; the spread between EB contract 1 and contract 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.28%, a decrease of 0.35%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 tons, an increase of 0.80 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 40.56%, a decrease of 1.84%; the PS operating rate was 55.60%, a decrease of 1.70%; the EPS operating rate was 53.26%, a decrease of 5.45%; the ABS operating rate was 66.10%, a decrease of 0.70% [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene have declined, and the basis has widened. The spot price of styrene has risen, and the futures price has declined, and the basis has strengthened. The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively high level, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene has continued to accumulate significantly. It is recommended to gradually take profit [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6777 yuan/ton, a decrease of 141 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6740 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis was - 37 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 141 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a decrease of 0.27%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 tons, an increase of 5.67 tons; the trader inventory was 2.32 tons, a decrease of 0.23 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 33.73%, a decrease of 4.03%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 51 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has declined. OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene has not changed, and there is still room for PE valuation to decline. The coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, which supports the price. It is the off - season, and the demand side is weak [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6676 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6730 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis was 54 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 125 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a decrease of 0.01%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 tons, an increase of 1.49 tons; the trader inventory was 18.32 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons; the port inventory was 6.37 tons, a decrease of 0.03 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 49.84%, a decrease of 2.24%. The LL - PP spread was 101 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 16 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 34 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 3 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has declined. The EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply surplus may ease. There is no capacity expansion plan in the first half of 2026, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The downstream production rate fluctuates seasonally. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 82 yuan, at 7098 yuan. The PX CFR fell 10 US dollars, at 892 US dollars. Converted according to the RMB central parity rate, the basis was - 47 yuan (+20), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 102 yuan (+14). In terms of PX load, the Chinese load was 89.5%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 82.4%, a 0.8% increase. In terms of equipment, Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting, Zhejiang Petrochemical increased its load, and Fujian United Petrochemical's load fluctuated. The PTA load was 77.6%, a 1% increase. In terms of equipment, Sichuan Energy

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply - disruption gap from Iran still exists, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and the subsequent production recovery of OPEC, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and the main operation idea is mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly restricts downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside space [5]. - For urea, the current situation of the domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production recovery at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to short - allocate on rallies [8]. - For rubber, with the overall decline of commodities and large price fluctuations, it is recommended to trade on the short - term basis of the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. The position of buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 can be re - established [13]. - For PVC, the overall situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand persists. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export - rush sentiment support it, the weak fundamentals affect the industry pattern expectations. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant. The port inventory of styrene is continuously increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so profits can be gradually taken [19]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene remains unchanged, and there is still room for PE valuation to decline. The coal - based inventory has significantly decreased, supporting the price. The demand is in the off - season, and the raw material inventory of agricultural films may peak [22]. - For polypropylene, the cost - end forecast shows a slight reduction in global oil inventory, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. There are no capacity - expansion plans in H1 2026, and the demand is in seasonal fluctuation. With high inventory pressure, the price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [25]. - For PX, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans, so PX is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The valuation center has risen, and the short - term profit is also high. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following the crude oil price [28]. - For PTA, the supply side maintains high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber is affected by the off - season. PTA is in the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. Although the processing fee has increased significantly, there is a risk of correction in the short term, and there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the import volume in February is expected to be high. The port inventory will continue to accumulate. There is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction in the mid - term. The valuation is currently moderately high year - on - year, and there is an expectation of further valuation compression in the mid - term without further production cuts in China [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures contract closed down 23.30 yuan/barrel, a decline of 4.93%, at 449.40 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products also declined. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the arrival inventory decreased by 2.48 million barrels to 201.25 million barrels, a 1.22% decline. Gasoline, diesel, and total refined oil commercial inventories increased [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas decreased. The main futures contract decreased by 42.00 yuan/ton, reported at 2247 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit increased by 125 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot prices in some regions decreased, and the overall basis was reported at 0 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 17 yuan/ton, reported at 1770 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities declined significantly with large price fluctuations. The short - term market is determined by funds, with low correlation to fundamentals. The long and short sides have different views. The overall situation of tire enterprises' production and inventory is complex, and spot prices of some products decreased [10][11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract increased by 57 yuan, reported at 5071 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou increased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The overall production rate increased slightly, while the downstream demand decreased slightly. Factory and social inventories changed in different directions [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene increased, and the basis decreased. The spot price of styrene decreased, while the futures price increased, and the basis weakened. Supply - side indicators such as production rate and inventory changed, and demand - side indicators such as the weighted production rate of three S decreased [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price decreased by 13 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream production rate increased, and production and trader inventories decreased. The downstream average production rate decreased slightly, and the LL5 - 9 spread decreased [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price increased by 16 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream production rate decreased slightly, and production, trader, and port inventories decreased. The downstream average production rate decreased slightly, and the LL - PP spread and PP5 - 9 spread decreased [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 36 yuan, reported at 7080 yuan. The CFR price increased, and the basis and 3 - 5 spread changed. The production loads in China and Asia increased. Some devices are in the process of restarting. The import volume from South Korea decreased, and the inventory increased [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 58 yuan, reported at 5150 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The production load remained unchanged, some downstream devices were under maintenance or restarting, and the terminal production load decreased. The social inventory increased, and the processing fee changed [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract remained unchanged, reported at 3767 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The production load increased, some devices at home and abroad were restarted, the downstream production load decreased, and the port inventory increased [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap due to Iran's supply disruption, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, with a mid - term layout as the main operation idea [2] - For methanol, the current price has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums, which strongly suppresses the downstream. The negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside space [5] - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are coming, so it is advisable to short at high levels [7] - For rubber, with significant commodity price drops and large volatility, it is recommended to conduct short - term trading based on the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. The position of buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 can be restored [12] - For PVC, the industry's comprehensive profit is at a relatively low - to - neutral level, with little reduction in supply and high production. Domestic demand is entering the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. Although short - term export incentives exist, the overall domestic supply - demand situation shows strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to subsequent changes in production capacity and operation [14] - For pure benzene and styrene, the current non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. With the supply still abundant, port inventories increasing, and demand weakening in the off - season, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and profits can be gradually taken [18] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene has fallen, and there is still room for downward valuation. With the supply pressure relieved and demand weakening in the off - season, the price may be supported [21] - For polypropylene, the EIA forecast indicates a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and supply surplus may ease. With no new production capacity planned in H1 2026, the supply pressure is relieved, but the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch, and it is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [23] - For PX, the current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to be in a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long following the crude oil price at low levels [25] - For PTA, the supply side has high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber is weakening in the off - season, leading to stock - building during the Spring Festival. The processing fee has increased significantly, with a large expected component. There is a risk of a short - term correction, but there is still room for upward valuation after the Spring Festival, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long [27] - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and imports in February are expected to remain at a high level. The port stock - building cycle will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of high inventory and high operation. The current valuation is moderately high year - on - year, and there is an expectation of valuation compression in the mid - term without further domestic production cuts [30] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 33.90 yuan/barrel, a 7.02% decline, at 449.00 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined, with high - sulfur fuel oil down 202.00 yuan/ton (7.01%) to 2679.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil down 197.00 yuan/ton (5.92%) to 3128.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed mixed inventory changes in refined products, with an overall reduction of 0.93 million barrels in refined oil inventory to 46.83 million barrels, a 1.94% decrease [1] - **Strategy View**: Take profit at high levels in the short term and focus on mid - term layout [2] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices showed different changes, with Jiangsu down 25 yuan/ton, and others having smaller or no changes. The main contract of the futures fell 92.00 yuan/ton to 2252 yuan/ton, and MTO profit increased by 144 yuan [4] - **Strategy View**: The current price has priced in geopolitical premiums, suppressing the downstream, and the negative feedback may continue [5] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas increased by 10 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract fell 3 yuan/ton to 1787 yuan/ton [6] - **Strategy View**: The import window has opened, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, short at high levels [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities declined significantly with large volatility. The short - term market is determined by funds, with low correlation to fundamentals. The long and short sides have different views. The total steel - tire operating load of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.41% as of January 29, 2026, slightly down from last week but up significantly from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire operating load was 75.35%, slightly up from last week and also up significantly from last year. China's natural rubber social inventory increased [10] - **Strategy View**: Conduct short - term trading based on the market, set stop - losses, and restore the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 49 yuan to 5014 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou was 4780 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 234 yuan/ton (up 49 yuan). The 5 - 9 spread was - 117 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan). The overall operating rate was 78.9%, with the calcium - carbide method up and the ethylene method down. Factory inventory decreased, while social inventory increased [13] - **Strategy View**: The industry's fundamentals are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support the price, and attention should be paid to subsequent changes in production capacity and operation [14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene fell, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene rose, while the futures price fell, with the basis strengthening. The upstream operating rate of styrene decreased, and the port inventory increased. The demand - side operating rate of three S products decreased [17] - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. Gradually take profit [18] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price fell 136 yuan/ton to 6878 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 100 yuan/ton to 6850 yuan/ton. The basis was - 28 yuan/ton (strengthened by 36 yuan). The upstream operating rate increased, and production enterprise inventory decreased [20] - **Strategy View**: The crude oil price may have bottomed, and the spot price of polyethylene has fallen. There is still room for downward valuation, but the supply pressure is relieved, and demand is weakening in the off - season [21] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price fell 110 yuan/ton to 6714 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 25 yuan/ton to 6740 yuan/ton. The basis was 26 yuan/ton (strengthened by 85 yuan). The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and inventories at various levels decreased [22] - **Strategy View**: The supply surplus may ease, and there is no new production capacity planned in H1 2026. The overall inventory pressure is high, and in the long term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [23] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 238 yuan to 7044 yuan. The CFR price fell 22 dollars to 891 dollars. The load in China and Asia increased. Some devices were restarting. The inventory at the end of December increased [24] - **Strategy View**: The current load is high, and it is expected to be in a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long following the crude oil price at low levels [25] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 178 yuan to 5092 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 185 yuan to 5095 yuan. The basis was - 71 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan). The PTA load remained unchanged, while the downstream load decreased. Social inventory increased, and the processing fee decreased [26] - **Strategy View**: The supply side has high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side is weakening in the off - season, leading to stock - building during the Spring Festival. There is a risk of a short - term correction in the processing fee, but there is still room for upward valuation after the Spring Festival [27] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 146 yuan to 3767 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 113 yuan to 3722 yuan. The basis was - 98 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan). The supply - side load increased, while the downstream load decreased. Port inventory increased [29] - **Strategy View**: The overall load is still high, and imports in February are expected to remain at a high level. The port stock - building cycle will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of high inventory and high operation [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap from Iran, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [4]. - For methanol, it has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside [5]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short on rallies [8]. - For rubber, the overall commodities have risen sharply with strong buying enthusiasm and large fluctuations. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and control risks strictly. The suggestion to buy NR main contract and short RU2609 should be postponed [14]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and rush - to - export sentiment support it. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and operation [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. It is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. - For polyethylene, the OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The PE valuation still has room to decline. In the seasonal off - season, the demand side shows a downward trend in the overall operating rate [23]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production - mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The current valuation has risen. Mid - term, there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [27]. - For PTA, it enters the Spring Festival stockpiling stage with short - term high maintenance on the supply side and declining demand from polyester and chemical fiber due to the off - season. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [29]. - For ethylene glycol, in the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut under the pressure of stockpiling and high operation. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [32]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed up 3.80 yuan/barrel, a 0.81% increase, at 470.80 yuan/barrel. Singapore ESG weekly oil data showed gasoline inventory increased by 1.09 million barrels to 16.91 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.04 million barrels to 8.60 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 3.44 million barrels to 19.94 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 45.44 million barrels [2][3]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [4]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu decreased by 5 yuan/ton, while those in Lunan and Henan increased by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 15.00 yuan/ton to 2320 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 103 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The current price suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, limiting the upside [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Hebei increased by 20 yuan/ton, and those in Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Shanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 1790 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 30 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: The import window has opened, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, short on rallies [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities such as copper and crude oil rose sharply but fell back after the night session. The short - term market is priced by funds with low correlation to fundamentals. Bulls and bears have different views on the market [11]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and control risks strictly. Postpone adding or opening positions for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 168 yuan to 5063 yuan. The cost of calcium carbide and other raw materials remained stable or changed slightly, the overall operating rate was 78.9%, and the downstream operating rate was 44.8%. Factory inventory decreased by 1.8 tons to 29 tons, and social inventory increased by 2.9 tons to 120.6 tons [16]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support it, and attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and operation [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene rose, and the basis widened. The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The non - integrated profit of styrene was neutral to high, and the port inventory continued to increase [19]. - **Strategy**: The upward valuation repair space of styrene is shrinking. Gradually take profits [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract closed at 7014 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, up 1.23%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, down 0.11% [22]. - **Strategy**: The crude oil price may have bottomed. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the demand side shows a downward trend in the seasonal off - season [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract closed at 6824 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, down 0.01%. The inventory of production enterprises, traders, and ports all decreased, and the downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, down 0.02% [24]. - **Strategy**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 98 yuan to 7282 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia increased. The PTA load remained flat. The import of South Korean PX to China decreased in mid - early January, and the inventory increased in late November [26]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. There are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 62 yuan to 5270 yuan. The PTA load remained flat, and the downstream load decreased. The social inventory increased in late January, and the processing fee increased [28]. - **Strategy**: It enters the Spring Festival stockpiling stage. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 44 yuan to 3913 yuan. The supply - side load increased, the downstream load decreased, the import to - port forecast was 14.7 tons, and the port inventory increased by 6.3 tons to 85.8 tons [31]. - **Strategy**: In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut under the pressure of stockpiling and high operation. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [32].