光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心回落，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.31 美元至 64.98 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.47%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘下跌 0.17 美元至 66.87 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.25%。SC2507 以 481.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 2.6 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 0.54%。EIA 发布月度短观能源展望报告，预计 2025 | | | | 年全球石油产量为 1.044 亿桶/日，较此前预测的 1.041 亿桶/日上 | | | | 调 30 万桶/日。预计 2025 年全球石油需求为 1.035 亿桶/日，较此 | | | | 前预测的 1.037 亿桶/日下调 20 万桶/日。此外，EIA 预计 2025 年 | | | 原油 | 美国石油日产量为 1342 万桶，与此前预期持平。预计 2025 年美 | 反弹 | | | 国石油需求为 2040 万桶/日，较此前预测的 2050 万 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘上涨 0.71 美元至 | | | | 65.29 美元/桶，涨幅 1.10%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 0.57 美元 | | | | 至 67.04 美元/桶，涨幅 0.86%。SC2507 以 479.3 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 5.5 元/桶，涨幅为 1.16%。调查显示，上月欧佩克石油产量为每日 | | | | 2675 万桶，较 4 月总产量增加 15 万桶/日。根据 OPEC+八个成 | | | | 员国关于 5 月产量的协议，其中五个 OPEC 成员国阿尔及利亚、 | | | | 伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋应将产量提高 31 万桶/日。 | | | 原油 | 这五个国家的实际增产为 18 万桶/日。5 月份我国进口原油 4660 | 震荡 | | | 万吨，环比下降 3.0%，同比下降 0.8%。1-5 月份，中国累计进口 | | | | 原油 2296 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四国际油价连续第三日收跌，WTI 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.37 美元 | | | | 至 61.2 美元/桶，跌幅 0.6%。布伦特 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.47 美元 | | | | 至 64.44 美元/桶，跌幅 0.72%。SC2507 以 456.9 元/桶收盘，下跌 | | | | 5.6 元/桶，跌幅 1.21%。欧佩克+成员国正在讨论是否在 6 月 1 日 | | | | 的会议上同意另一次超大规模的增产，这可能是该组织连续第三 | | | | 个月向市场增加额外的石油产量。代表们表示，7 月份日产量增 | | | | 加 41.1 万桶/日是正在讨论的选项之一，但尚未达成最终协议。 | | | 原油 | 作为集团领导者的沙特阿拉伯在最近一次会议上警告哈萨克斯坦 | 震荡 | | | 和伊拉克等违规成员国，若不遵守配额，沙特可能进一步增产。 | | | | 尽管哈萨克斯坦方面做出了一些弥补承诺，但该国并未采取实质 | | ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价先跌后反弹，其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘上涨 0.2 美元至 | | | | 62.69 美元/桶，涨幅 0.32%。布伦特 7 月合约收盘上涨 0.13 美元 | | | | 至 65.54 美元/桶，涨幅 0.2%。SC2507 以 465.4 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 4 元/桶，涨幅 0.87%。特朗普周一与俄罗斯总统普京通话后表示， | | | | 俄乌将"立即"开始就结束冲突进行谈判。克里姆林宫表示，两 | | | | 人并没有讨论俄方与乌克兰停火的潜在时间表。伊朗计划在 | | | | Kharg Island 出口码头增加了 200 万桶的原油储存能力，自 5 月 17 | | | 原油 | 日起生效。美伊核谈判的不确定性加剧市场波动。G7 于 2022 年 | 震荡 | | | 12 月达成价上限机制，禁止油轮运输交易价格高于每桶 60 美元 | | | | 的俄罗斯原油，并禁止相关实体为俄石油运输提供保 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 15 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心小幅回落，其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘下跌 0.52 美元至 | | | | 63.15 美元/桶，跌幅 0.82%。布伦特 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.54 美元 | | | | 至 66.09 美元/桶，跌幅 0.81%。SC2506 以 484.6 元/桶收盘，下跌 | | | | 2.9 元/桶，跌幅 0.59%。EIA 数据显示，随着美国进口更多石油， | | | | 美国上周原油库存上升，而汽油和馏分油库存在夏季驾车季节到 | | | | 来之前下降。在截至 5 月 9 日的一周内，美国原油库存增加了 350 | | | | 万桶至 4.418 亿桶，此前市场预期为减少 110 万桶。上周美国原 | | | | 油净进口增 42.2 万桶/日。最大生产国兼 OPEC+协议的领导者沙 | | | 原油 | 特，4 月产量较 3 月增加 4.9 万桶/日，至 900 万桶/日。在 OPEC | 震荡 | | | 其他产油国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride are all forecasted to have an oscillatory trend [1][3][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rose significantly. OPEC's oil production in April may have slightly decreased due to the US's attempt to curb oil flow, leading to reduced supply from Venezuela, Iraq, and Libya. The US's expanded sanctions have increased market concerns and caused oil prices to rebound. The oil market will continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. Singapore and Fujeirah's fuel oil inventories decreased. The reduction in East - West arbitrage arrivals in May will support the low - sulfur market in the short term. High - sulfur fuel oil is also supported by the expected improvement in Middle Eastern summer power generation demand, but low raw material procurement demand will still pressure the market [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises decreased, while the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt increased. With the improvement of processing profits, supply is expected to increase. The issuance of special bonds is expected to accelerate, and terminal demand is supported, but attention should be paid to the pressure brought by increased supply [3]. - **Polyester**: PTA, EG, and PX futures prices rose on Thursday. PTA's load decreased and then is expected to rise. The overall ethylene glycol start - up load increased. Some MEG devices restarted or plan to shut down. The production and sales of polyester yarn in the Yangtze River Delta are weak. The prices of PX and PTA will follow cost fluctuations, and ethylene glycol is relatively resistant to decline [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. The start - up loads of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased. The rubber market fundamentals are weak, but the delayed rubber tapping in Thailand will support prices in the short term [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol prices showed certain trends. In May, domestic supply is expected to increase, while demand will remain relatively stable, and price support will weaken [6]. - **Polyolefin**: On Thursday, the average national price of polypropylene (PP) was reported, and the prices of polyethylene (PE) in different regions decreased. Supply is expected to decline due to refinery maintenance, but demand will enter the off - season, and the decline in inventory will slow down. Polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China decreased. The real estate construction off - season will drag down the demand for PVC downstream products, and exports may decline. In May, the PVC market fundamentals are loose, and prices are expected to remain low and fluctuate [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on May 8th and 9th, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantiles [8]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC's oil production in April may have slightly decreased, despite the relaxation of voluntary production cuts. The organization plans to accelerate production increases in May and June, but the impact of the US's restrictions on Iran and Venezuela remains uncertain. Kazakhstan has no plan to cut crude oil and condensate production in May [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][14][17]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis charts of main contracts such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are provided, showing the basis trends over the years [28][32][33]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows the spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, and other products, such as the spreads between 05 - 09 and 09 - 01 contracts of fuel oil [44][45][46]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The spread charts between different varieties are presented, including the spreads between domestic and foreign crude oil, B - W spreads of crude oil, and the spreads between fuel oil and asphalt [60][64][65]. - **Production Profits**: The production profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are provided [68][69][72]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [74][75][76].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心回落，其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.02 美元至 58.07 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.73%。布伦特 7 月合约收盘下跌 1.03 美元至 61.12 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.66%。SC2506 以 459 元/桶收盘，下跌 7.1 元/桶， | | | | 跌幅 1.52%。美联储周三维持利率不变，但指出通胀和失业率上升 | | | | 的风险增加，在联储努力评估关税政策的影响之际，这进一步令 | | | | 经济前景蒙阴。FOMC 表示，经济前景的不确定性进一步增加。 | | | | 在这次会议上，决策者们一致同意将指标利率目标区间维持在 | | | | 4.25%-4.50%不变。EIA 公布的库存报告显示，截至 5 月 2 日当 | | | 原油 | 周，美国商业原油库存减少 200 万桶，至 4.384 亿桶，此前市场预 | 震荡 | | | 期为减少 80 万桶。截至 5 月 2 日 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 4 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周二油价重心大幅回落，其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.63 美元至 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 60.42 美元/桶，跌幅 2.63%。布伦特 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.61 美元 至 64.25 美元/桶，跌幅 2.44%。SC2506 以 478.0 元/桶收盘，下跌 | | | | 10.1 元/桶，跌幅为 2.07%。API 数据显示，截至 4 月 25 日当周， | | | | 美国 API 原油库存增加 380 万桶，库欣原油库存增加 67.4 万桶。 | | | | 310 250 成品油汽油库存减少 万桶、馏分油库存减少 万桶。分析 | | | 原油 | 师预测美国原油库存再增 50 万桶，这将是连续第五周库存攀升。 | 震荡 | | | 相较去年同期 730 万桶的增幅虽有所收窄，但仍高于 2020-2024 | | | | 320 万桶。OPEC+消息人士透露，多个成员国拟在 6 年同期均值 | | | | 月再度提议加速增产。哈萨克斯坦一季 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周一油价重心回落，其中 WTI 6月合约收盘下跌 0.97 美元至 62.05 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.54%。布伦特 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.01 美元至 65.86 美元/桶，跌幅 1.51%。SC2506 以 488.5 元/桶收盘，下跌 5.7 元/ 桶，跌幅为 1.15%。4 月 28 日，美国对三艘涉嫌向胡塞武装运送 | | | | 成品油的船只实施制裁，显示美国在与伊朗核谈判之际继续施压。 | | | 原油 | 美国财政部在声明中宣称，被制裁船只向也门胡塞武装控制的港 | 震荡 | | | 口运送了液化石油气和柴油。该组织得到伊朗支持，被美国列为 | | | | 恐怖组织。欧洲遭遇大规模停电多国陷入混乱。其中，西班牙和 | | | | 葡萄牙停电规模覆盖全国，数百万民众受到影响，整个伊比利亚 | | | | 半岛受到影响。停电对原油加工量造成阶段性影响，不过预计影 | | | | 响较为短暂。今天是五一节前倒数第二个交易日，预计 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "volatile" [1][3][4][7][9] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is affected by the US's inconsistent policies and OPEC+ internal disputes, and the market is in a state of repeated operation [1] - The low - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by reduced arbitrage shipments, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market pressure eases with the approaching summer demand [1][3] - The asphalt production profit has recovered, and the refinery's production enthusiasm has improved, but the actual consumption has not increased significantly [3] - Polyester product prices mainly follow the cost - end, and the price of ethylene glycol is expected to run in a low - range [3][4] - The rubber price is expected to be volatile and weak due to the approaching holiday production cut of downstream tire factories and cautious terminal orders [4][7] - The methanol supply is high, and the future supply - demand may be loose [7] - The polyolefin market is affected by tariff policies, with supply pressure easing and demand weakening [7][9] - The PVC market's supply and demand will both weaken marginally, and the price is expected to be volatile [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 6 - month contract rose 0.52 dollars to 62.79 dollars/barrel (0.84% increase), Brent 6 - month contract rose 0.43 dollars to 66.55 dollars/barrel (0.65% increase), and SC2506 closed at 495.4 yuan/barrel (1.00% increase). The US's inconsistent policies and OPEC+ internal disputes make the market volatile [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, FU2507 fell 1.12% to 2998 yuan/ton, and LU2506 fell 0.86% to 3446 yuan/ton. The low - sulfur market is supported by reduced shipments, and the high - sulfur market pressure eases with approaching summer demand [1][3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, BU2506 rose 0.38% to 3406 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment of domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 20.4% week - on - week, and the utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity increased. The production profit has recovered, but the actual consumption has not increased significantly [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 fell 0.86% to 4370 yuan/ton, EG2509 fell 1.67% to 4179 yuan/ton. The production load of polyester and ethylene glycol has changed, and product prices mainly follow the cost - end [3][4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, RU2509 rose 40 yuan/ton to 14735 yuan/ton, NR fell 130 yuan/ton to 12400 yuan/ton, and BR fell 60 yuan/ton to 11235 yuan/ton. The downstream tire factories are expected to cut production before the holiday, and the rubber price is expected to be volatile and weak [4][7] - **Methanol**: The supply is high, and the future supply - demand may be loose due to device maintenance and increased future arrivals [7] - **Polyolefin**: The price of polypropylene and polyethylene has changed. The refinery's maintenance increases, but the demand weakens due to tariff policies [7][9] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The market price is slightly adjusted. The supply and demand will both weaken marginally, and the price is expected to be volatile [9] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on April 24 and 23, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc [10] 3. Market News - The third - round of US - Iran nuclear negotiations this week may lead to Iran's crude oil return, but the new US sanctions on Iran limit the oil price increase. Kazakhstan will prioritize national interests over OPEC+ quotas [12] - The Bank of England Governor believes that the concern about the US dollar losing its reserve currency status is "excessive" [12] 4. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc [29][31][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc [60][62][64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP production, etc [69][70][72] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and research areas [74][75][76]