1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "volatile" [1][3][5][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, due to sanctions concerns leading to unstable supply expectations, the price center has shifted upwards. It should be treated with a rebound mindset in the short - term [1] - For fuel oil, if oil prices stabilize, the absolute prices of FU and LU may follow and rebound. Consider closing out short positions on the LU - FU spread, and wait for opportunities to re - enter short positions later [3] - For asphalt, in the short - term, the market is supported by low supply and inventory, and the spot price is relatively firm. Consider short - term long positions after oil prices stabilize [5] - For polyester, with cost - side support from the traditional oil demand peak season and resilient downstream demand, and low visible inventories of TA and EG, the prices are expected to oscillate strongly [5] - For rubber, short - term prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations. Pay attention to macro events at the end of July and the results of China - US tariff negotiations [7] - For methanol, after capacity utilization in Iran recovers to the peak and arrivals increase, with stable downstream profits and capacity utilization and increasing inventory, it is expected to enter an oscillatory phase after valuation repair [7] - For polyolefins, they will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. If the cost side does not decline significantly, the downside space is limited [7] - For PVC, supply remains at a high - level oscillation, demand is gradually recovering, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and inventory is slowly decreasing. With the basis and monthly spread widening again, short - selling power in the market will resume [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI September contract closed up $0.79 to $70.00/barrel, a 1.14% increase. Brent September contract closed up $0.73 to $73.24/barrel, a 1.01% increase. SC2508 closed at 523.6 yuan/barrel, down 7.4 yuan/barrel, a 1.39% decrease. Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian imports starting August 1st and unspecified penalties for buying Russian oil. India may cooperate, which could affect Russia's daily oil exports of 2.3 million barrels. The US sanctioned five shipping management companies and one oil wholesaler for dealing with Iranian oil. EIA data showed a 7.7 - million - barrel increase in US crude inventory, a 2.7 - million - barrel decrease in gasoline inventory (expected 0.6 - million - barrel decrease), and a 3.6 - million - barrel increase in distillate inventory (expected 0.3 - million - barrel increase) [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1.48% at 2,956 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2510 closed up 2.49% at 3,710 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of independent refineries in Shandong has been rising for 5 consecutive weeks, reaching 48.16%, but is 0.96% lower year - on - year. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in the Singapore market is sufficient, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market in Asia faces supply pressure from stable Middle East shipments [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1% at 3,650 yuan/ton. The planned asphalt production in August is 2.41 million tons, a 5% increase from July and a 25% increase year - on - year. The social inventory rate this week is 35.33%, down 0.27% from last week, the refinery inventory level is 26.22%, up 1.12%, and the refinery capacity utilization rate is 35.91%, up 3.98% [3][5] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4,856 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. EG2509 closed at 4,450 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. A 1.34 - million - ton PX plant in the Middle East has started production and is ramping up capacity. With cost - side support and resilient downstream demand, and low visible inventories, polyester prices are expected to oscillate strongly [5] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed down 65 yuan/ton at 14,945 yuan/ton, and NR closed down 95 yuan/ton at 12,575 yuan/ton. As of July 27, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, up 0.46 million tons or 0.4%. With continuous rainfall in domestic producing areas and rising tire production and exports, short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely [7] - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,407 yuan/ton. With Iranian plants operating at full capacity and increasing arrivals, stable downstream profits and capacity utilization, and increasing inventory, methanol is expected to enter an oscillatory phase after valuation repair [7] - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of PP in East China was 7,120 yuan/ton. Polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, with limited downside space if the cost side does not decline significantly [7] - **PVC**: On Wednesday, the price of PVC in East China increased. Supply remains high, demand is recovering, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and inventory is slowly decreasing. With the basis and monthly spread widening, short - selling power in the market will resume [9] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, spot price, futures price, and their changes for various energy and chemical products including crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc. on July 30 and 29, 2025 [10] 3.3 Market News - Trump stated that if Russia fails to make progress in ending the Ukraine war within 10 - 12 days, the US will impose measures including 100% secondary tariffs on its trading partners. The US also warned other buyers of Russian oil [13] - EIA data showed a 7.7 - million - barrel increase in US crude inventory (expected 1.3 - million - barrel decrease), a 2.7 - million - barrel decrease in gasoline inventory (expected 0.6 - million - barrel decrease), and a 3.6 - million - barrel increase in distillate inventory (expected 0.3 - million - barrel increase) [13] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents historical price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [15][17][19] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - It includes charts of the basis for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., showing their historical trends [33][34] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - Charts display the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [48][49][53] 3.4.4 Inter - product Spreads - The report shows charts of spreads between different products such as crude oil (internal - external market, B - W), fuel oil (high - low sulfur), etc. [64][65][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - Charts present the production profits of products such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [74][75][79] 3.5 Research Team Members Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with rich experience in the futures derivatives market and many awards [81] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with multiple industry awards [82] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, winning several industry honors [83] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in energy and chemical futures and cash trading [84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the product varieties in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices fluctuated and declined. Iran will hold nuclear negotiations with the UK, France, and Germany on Friday. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil. In July, the operating rates of domestic refineries increased, but the overall demand for oil prices has limited driving force, and it is expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contracts rose. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened further, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continued to be under pressure. The expected arrival volume from the European market in July will increase by 30 - 400,000 tons. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market faces supply pressure from stable Middle - Eastern shipments. The LU - FU spread has narrowed, and it is advisable to continue holding the spread short position [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract rose. In August, northern demand will be further released, and some refineries' production enthusiasm has increased. However, refineries without crude oil quotas have no production plans, and some refineries in Shandong have maintenance plans. The short - term unilateral driving force of the asphalt market is not obvious, and it mainly fluctuates narrowly following the cost - end crude oil. Short - term long positions can be considered after the oil price stabilizes [3]. - **Polyester**: On Monday, the main polyester contracts rose. The sales of polyester yarn in the Yangtze River Delta were average. Some synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plants restarted. The inventory in the main ports in East China decreased. The macro - environment has strengthened the expectation of industry structural adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity. The EG device overseas has poor recovery, and the inventory accumulation expectation is weakened. The TA supply has little change, and it follows the cost to oscillate strongly in the short term [3][4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contracts rose. The inventory in Qingdao decreased. The continuous rainfall in the main rubber - producing areas has disrupted tapping operations. The downstream tire inventory is high and stable, and the demand has improved slightly. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the external macro - environment and extreme weather such as typhoons [4]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the methanol price showed a certain pattern. The load of Iranian devices has recovered to a high point, and the arrival volume has also increased. The downstream profit has recovered, and the start - up is expected to remain stable. The 9 - 1 spread and basis have returned to the normal range, and the price has returned to an oscillating trend [7]. - **Polyolefin**: On Monday, the polyolefin price was in a certain state. Polyolefin will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is not prominent. If the cost end does not decline significantly, the downside space of polyolefin is also limited [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the PVC market price increased. The enterprise start - up has recovered, but the demand has not improved significantly. The basis and monthly spread have widened again, and the arbitrage space has gradually opened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to excessive market news [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI August contract closed down $0.14 to $67.20 per barrel, a decline of 0.21%. Brent September contract closed down $0.07 to $69.21 per barrel, a decline of 0.10%. SC2509 closed at 509.1 yuan per barrel, down 6.2 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.20% [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main fuel oil contract FU2509 rose 1.53% to 2924 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2510 rose 0.19% to 3602 yuan per ton [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract BU2509 rose 0.27% to 3657 yuan per ton [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4780 yuan per ton, up 0.76%. EG2509 closed at 4410 yuan per ton, up 0.78%. The basis increased by 14 yuan per ton to 65 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4469 yuan per ton [3][4]. - **Rubber**: The main rubber contract RU2509 rose 85 yuan per ton to 14895 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract rose 75 yuan per ton to 12750 yuan per ton [4]. - **Methanol**: The Taicang spot price was 2398 yuan per ton, the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1990 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was 268 - 272 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 328 - 333 US dollars per ton [7]. - **Polyolefin**: The mainstream price of East China drawstring was 7050 - 7150 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 400.04 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP production was 741.07 yuan per ton [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The price of the East China PVC market increased. The price of calcium carbide - based type 5 material was 5000 - 5080 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based material was 4950 - 53000 yuan per ton [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical varieties on July 21 and July 18, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc [9]. 3.3 Market News - The lack of progress in US trade negotiations and the EU's latest sanctions have not weakened Russia's energy exports, leading to lingering concerns about crude oil demand in the market. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including including the Indian Nayara Energy Company, which processes Russian crude oil, in the sanctions scope and further lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [13][15][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [26][28][32]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: It provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc [39][41][44]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: It shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc [56][59]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: It presents the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc [62][63][65]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts such as Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [68][69][70] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for each individual energy and chemical product, the ratings are as follows: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - Asphalt: Oscillating [2] - Polyester: Oscillating [2][4] - Rubber: Oscillating [4] - Methanol: Oscillating [5] - Polyolefin: Oscillating [5] - Polyvinyl chloride: Oscillating [5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are affected by factors such as tariff policies and inventory changes, and are expected to continue oscillating [1]. - The fuel oil market is mainly driven by the cost - end crude oil, with the LU - FU spread reaching a high level this year, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity [2]. - The asphalt market is affected by supply and demand factors and follows the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [2]. - The polyester market is under pressure due to factors such as weak terminal demand and inventory accumulation [4]. - The rubber market is affected by export volume and production, and is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - The methanol market is expected to return to an oscillating trend due to factors such as device load and downstream profit [5]. - The polyolefin market has limited supply changes, and demand is at the bottom, with prices expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - The PVC market has limited fundamental changes, and the upward rebound space is not large [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fell again. API data showed an increase in US crude oil and refined product inventories. Trump's tariff measures may suppress oil prices. However, domestic energy production and processing have positive trends, and oil prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil fell. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market remained stable. It is expected to follow the cost - end crude oil for oscillation, and attention can be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the LU - FU spread [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract fell slightly. The adjustment of the fuel oil and diluted asphalt consumption tax deduction policy has not yet shown an impact. Supply has decreased, and demand has support. It is expected to follow the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of PTA, EG, and PX futures fell. The downstream demand is weak, the inventory of polyester factories is increasing, and the prices of polyester products are under pressure [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The prices of some rubber varieties fluctuated. The rubber export volume in Cote d'Ivoire increased in the first half of 2025, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol is affected by factors such as device load and downstream profit, and is expected to return to an oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefin**: The prices of polyolefin products are affected by supply and demand. Supply changes are limited, demand is at the bottom, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: The PVC market price has a narrow - range adjustment. Although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated further, and the upward rebound space is limited [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on July 16, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump plans to impose a 30% tariff on most imported goods from the EU and Mexico starting from August 1, which may suppress global fuel demand and oil prices [1][9]. - API data shows that as of the week of July 11, US API crude oil and refined product inventories increased [1][9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, etc. [11][13][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It includes the basis charts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., showing the basis changes over time [29][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., reflecting the price differences between different contract periods [44][46][49] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products, such as the spread between crude oil internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It presents the cash - flow chart of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit chart of PP, etc. [70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][3][5][6][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices declined. OPEC lowered its oil demand growth forecast. OPEC+ is discussing a pause in further production increases from October, which may signal an oversupply risk after the peak demand period. Currently, oil prices are mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to US tariff policies and OPEC+'s actual production increase. The weekly oil price center has slightly risen [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, fuel oil futures prices fell. Singapore and Fujeirah's fuel oil inventories increased. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is expected to be tight, while high - sulfur fuel oil is under supply pressure. The short - term single - side drivers are not obvious, and it mainly follows the cost - side crude oil to fluctuate within a range [1][3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, asphalt futures prices rose. This week, domestic asphalt shipments increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased. The impact of the consumption tax deduction policy adjustment is not obvious, with supply remaining stable and increasing, and demand slowly recovering in the south but hindered by rainfall in the north. The short - term single - side drivers are not obvious, and it mainly follows the cost - side crude oil to fluctuate within a range [3] - **Polyester**: On Thursday, polyester futures prices rose. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. Some polyester, PTA, and PX devices have restarted or are in the process of restarting. TA spot basis has loosened, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future. There is a strong expectation of ethylene glycol inventory accumulation in the third quarter, and its price is expected to be under pressure [3][5] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, rubber futures prices rose. Indonesia's natural rubber exports increased, while Malaysia's decreased. Domestic tire enterprise start - up loads have recovered, but semi - steel high inventory suppresses start - up. Rubber raw material prices have loosened, and inventory has slightly increased. The fundamentals' contradictions are weak, and rubber prices are expected to be volatile [5] - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol prices showed different trends in different regions. Iranian device production is gradually recovering, and although the short - term arrival volume is not large, the long - term arrival volume will increase. The short - term supply shortage situation has eased, the basis has declined, and the price has returned to a volatile trend [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, polyolefin prices showed different trends. The upstream is still in the maintenance season, with little change in overall supply. Demand has declined with the arrival of the off - season, and enterprises purchase on demand. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, but the overall contradictions are not large, the total inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price center moves with cost changes. With the current low volatility of crude oil, polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC market prices in East, North, and South China increased. Recently, chlor - alkali profits have declined, and enterprise start - up has decreased. Although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated. As the basis and monthly spread structure change slowly, the arbitrage and hedging space is gradually narrowing. Before the market provides obvious opportunities, short - selling is not recommended, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on July 10th and 9th, as well as the latest basis rate's quantile in historical data [9] 3.2 Market News - The US will impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods starting from August 1st, and Brazil will negotiate with the US and may take counter - measures if necessary [13] - OPEC+ is discussing a pause in further production increases from October, which may be interpreted as a signal that the market cannot absorb more supply, and there may be an oversupply risk after the peak demand period [13] 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and p - xylene [15][17][19][21][23][25] 3.3.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][30][34][35][36][39][40] 3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [42][44][47][50][53][54][57] 3.3.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, including crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [59][63][64][66] 3.3.5 Production Profits - The report presents the production profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [67][68][70] 3.4 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including the assistant director and energy and chemical director Zhong Meiyan, crude oil and related product analyst Du Bingqin, natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [73][74][75][76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices oscillated. The EIA data showed an increase in US crude oil inventories last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. The market demand is strong as it digests OPEC+'s production increase without inventory accumulation. With OPEC+ increasing supply, the demand remains resilient, leading to an oscillating and slightly upward - trending oil price [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose on Wednesday. The domestic refinery operating rate decreased slightly. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is expected to be tight, while the supply pressure will continue to suppress the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market. In the short term, it will mainly oscillate following the cost - end crude oil [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract rose on Wednesday. The inventory level was stable week - on - week, and the operating rate increased. The impact of the adjustment of the consumption tax deduction policy has not yet appeared. The supply in July is stable with a slight increase. The demand in the south is slowly recovering, while the rainfall in the north hinders demand. It will oscillate following the cost - end crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester products such as TA, EG, and PX rose slightly on Wednesday. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. TA inventory may gradually accumulate, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol in the third quarter, with its price under pressure [2]. - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber products such as RU, NR, and BR rose slightly on Wednesday. The rubber - producing areas are in full - scale tapping, raw material prices are loose, downstream tire operating rates declined, and inventory slightly increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to rubber purchase and storage news and tariff negotiations between Vietnam and the US [3]. - **Methanol**: The production of Iranian devices is gradually recovering. Although the short - term arrival volume has not increased much, the long - term arrival volume will increase. The short - term supply shortage has eased, and the price has returned to an oscillating trend [3]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream is still in the maintenance season, with little change in overall supply. As the off - season arrives, downstream operating rates have declined, and enterprises purchase on demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Recently, the profit of chlor - alkali has decreased, and enterprise operating rates have declined. Although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated. Before the market provides obvious opportunities, short - selling is not recommended, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI August contract closed up $0.05 to $68.38 per barrel, a 0.07% increase; Brent September contract closed up $0.04 to $70.19 per barrel, a 0.06% increase; SC2508 closed at 520.1 yuan per barrel, up 4.4 yuan per barrel, a 0.85% increase. US crude oil inventories increased by 7.1 million barrels to 426 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.51% to 2982 yuan per ton; the main contract LU2509 of low - sulfur fuel oil rose 0.82% to 3692 yuan per ton. As of July 9, the operating rate of domestic refineries was 63.61%, down 0.46 percentage points from last week [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract BU2509 of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.86% to 3623 yuan per ton. The total inventory level of domestic refineries was 27.91%, unchanged week - on - week; the social inventory rate was 35.81%, up 0.33% week - on - week; the operating rate of asphalt plants was 35.53%, up 2.72% week - on - week [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4718 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; EG2509 closed at 4283 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; PX futures main contract 509 closed at 6724 yuan per ton, up 0.42%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were about 40% [2]. - **Rubber**: The main contract RU2509 of natural rubber rose 60 yuan per ton to 14045 yuan per ton; NR main contract rose 25 yuan per ton to 12095 yuan per ton; BR main contract rose 5 yuan per ton to 11310 yuan per ton. As of July 6, the social inventory of natural rubber decreased by 0.02 million tons, a 0.02% decrease [3]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang was 2385 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 1962.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was 275 - 279 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 339 - 344 US dollars per ton [3]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 7050 - 7180 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 341.35 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP was 911.73 yuan per ton [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price of PVC in East China was stable, with the mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material at 4740 - 4840 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene - based material at 4800 - 5150 yuan per ton [4]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - This part provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on July 10, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [5]. 3.3 Market News - The Red Sea, a global important shipping route, was attacked again last week after months of calm. The attacker is suspected to be the Yemeni Houthi rebels supported by Iran, and a cargo ship sank, causing at least 4 crew members to die [7]. - The EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [7]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [9][11][13][15][17][19] - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [22][23][24][25] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spreads between different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [36][37][38][39][41][42][44][45][47][48][49][51][52] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil's internal and external markets, B - W spread of crude oil, high - and low - sulfur spread of fuel oil, etc. [53][54][55] - **Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trends of products such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [58][59][60][61][62] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over ten years of experience in futures and derivatives market research [64]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain [65]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, good at data analysis and logical reasoning [66]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [67].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价低开高走，其中 WTI 8月合约收盘上涨 0.93 美元至 67.93 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.39%。布伦特 9 月合约收盘上涨 1.28 美元至 69.58 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.87%。SC2508 以 512.0 元/桶收盘，上涨 10.7 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 2.13%。油价无视欧佩克+超预期增产利空，价格偏强 | | | | 运行。宏观方面，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，将对等关税生效 | | | | 日和谈判截止日期从 7 月 9 日延后至 8 月 1 日。此外，他还向 14 | | | | 个国家发出首批关税信函，8 月 1 日起将对日本和韩国加征 25% | | | | 关税，对马来西亚、哈萨克斯坦和突尼斯征收 25%的关税，南非 | | | 原油 | 则将面临 30%的税率，老挝和缅甸将被征收 40%的关税。 | 震荡 | | | 其他受影响国家还包括印尼 32%、孟加拉国 3 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, due to macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, it will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision. High - sulfur fuel oil may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. For asphalt, it is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies. Polyester products like TA and EG are also expected to fluctuate. Rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly, and methanol and other products will maintain a fluctuating trend [1][3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 8 - month contract closed down 0.45 dollars to 67 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.67%. Brent 9 - month contract closed down 0.31 dollars to 68.8 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.45%. SC2508 closed up 3.3 yuan/barrel to 507 yuan/barrel, with an increase of 0.66%. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration". With macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, the oil price will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1.05% to 2987 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2509 closed up 0.89% to 3623 yuan/ton. As of July 2, the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah decreased by 139.1 million barrels (13.46%) week - on - week. The high - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger than the low - sulfur ones. High - sulfur prices may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. The domestic low - sulfur supply remains sufficient, and the internal - external price difference is expected to remain low [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.25% to 3588 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased by 14.3% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.8% week - on - week. The pricing center may shift back to the north after the peak season in the north. It is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 1% at 4746 yuan/ton, EG2509 closed down 0.26% at 4288 yuan/ton, and PX 509 closed down 0.74% at 6740 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is weak, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. TA and EG prices are expected to fluctuate [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed down 110 yuan/ton to 14015 yuan/ton. The tire production load decreased, the rubber inventory increased slightly, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of Iranian plants, the subsequent imports will increase. The MTO profit is being compressed, and the short - term methanol price will maintain a fluctuating trend [5] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is at a high level but the increase is limited, the total inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price center moves with the cost [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the arbitrage and hedging space is narrowing. The PVC price is expected to continue to fluctuate [7] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on July 3 and July 2, 2025 [9] 3. Market News - Iran's Foreign Minister said that Iran will continue to engage with the UN nuclear watchdog. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and the Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration" [11] 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. over a certain period [33][34][35] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [45][46][50] 4.4 Inter - product Spreads - It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products such as crude oil internal - external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [70] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "Oscillation", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC [1][3][4][6][8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After sharp rises and falls in the market, oil prices are likely to oscillate within a narrow range, and there is room for a slight increase in the oil price center in the future, subject to further guidance from OPEC+ production policies [1] - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market will be supported in the short term, but the supply from Iran and Russia is declining, and attention should be paid to the risk of significant oil price fluctuations [3] - The price of asphalt is affected by both the cost - side oil price and weak demand, and it is expected to oscillate [3] - The supply of polyester products is expected to increase, demand support is insufficient, and prices are expected to return to a low - range consolidation, with PX and TA following the cost of crude oil [4] - The rubber market has weak fundamental contradictions, and rubber prices are expected to oscillate [4] - Methanol futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as the expected resumption of Iranian production and the impact on port arrivals in Taicang [6] - The fundamentals of polyolefins have not improved significantly, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the decline in crude oil prices [6] - PVC prices are expected to continue to oscillate as the downstream enters the off - season, but the arbitrage and hedging space is gradually narrowing [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI August contract closed up $0.32 to $65.24 per barrel, a 0.49% increase; Brent August contract closed up $0.05 to $67.73 per barrel, a 0.07% increase; SC2508 closed at 498 yuan per barrel, down 7.4 yuan per barrel, a 1.46% decrease. Russian Urals crude oil price has fallen below the $60 per - barrel limit [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.03% at 3019 yuan per ton; the main contract LU2508 of low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 0.19% at 3693 yuan per ton. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased week - on - week [1][3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract BU2509 of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.2% at 3563 yuan per ton. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt manufacturers increased by 0.7% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.42% at 4770 yuan per ton; EG2509 closed down 0.69% at 4293 yuan per ton. Iranian ethylene glycol plants are expected to resume production, and the price center of ethylene glycol is expected to return to a low - range consolidation [3][4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract RU2509 of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 270 yuan per ton to 14040 yuan per ton; the main contract of 20 - number rubber rose 335 yuan per ton to 12145 yuan per ton. The global natural rubber production in May decreased, and the consumption decreased slightly [4] - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang is 2765 yuan per ton. Iranian plants are expected to resume production, and methanol futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **Polyolefin**: The mainstream price of East China wire drawing is 7150 - 7250 yuan per ton. Due to the cease - fire between Israel and Iran and the decline in crude oil prices, polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **PVC**: The prices in East, North, and South China markets fluctuate. As the downstream enters the off - season, PVC prices are expected to continue to oscillate [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on June 26th and 25th, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price increases and decreases, and basis changes [9] 3.3 Market News - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that as of the week ending June 20th, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 4.1 million barrels [12] - An impaired facility at the 14th - phase project of the South Pars Refinery in Iran's Bushehr Province has resumed operation [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [32] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of inter - period contract spreads for various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA, are provided [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report includes charts of inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of production profits for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are presented [73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [78][79][80]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 伊以冲突可能走向停火，油价应声暴跌，其中 WTI 8 月合约收盘 | | | | 下跌 5.33 美元至 68.51 美元/桶，跌幅 7.22%。布伦特 8 月合约收 | | | | 盘下跌 5.53 美元至 71.48 美元/桶，跌幅 7.18%。SC2508 以 537.7 | | | | 元/桶收盘，下跌 32.2 元/桶，跌幅为 5.65%。伊朗最高国家安全委 | | | | 员会秘书处 23 日发表声明说，为回应美国对伊朗核设施的侵略行 | | | | 径，伊朗当天对美国驻卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地进行了导弹打击。 | | | | 特朗普在美国东部时间当天 18 时 02 分，北京时间 24 日 6 时 02 | | | | 分，发表的帖文中说，停火将在大约 6 小时后正式生效，届时以 | | | 原油 | 伊双方将完成各自正在进行的"最后任务"。根据协议，停火将分 | 震荡 | | | 阶段实施：伊朗先开始停火，到第 12 个小时 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 7 月原油即期合约因六月节假 | | | | 期休市。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 2.15 美元至 78.85 美元/桶，涨 | | | | 幅 2.80%。SC2508 以 574.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 15.5 元/桶，涨幅为 | | | | 2.77%。知情人士称，美国总统特朗普已告诉他的高级助手，称他 | | | | 已批准了对伊朗的攻击计划，但暂不下达最终命令，以观察伊朗 | | | | 是否会放弃其核计划。美国高级官员正在为未来几天对伊朗发动 | | | | 袭击的可能性做准备。伊朗副外长加里布阿巴迪警告美国不要为 | | | | 了支持以色列而介入以方与伊朗的冲突。加里布阿巴迪表示，如 | | | 原油 | 果美国执意介入，伊朗将作出回应。花旗银行表示，如果伊朗以 | 震荡 | | | 色列冲突升级，导致伊朗 110 万桶/日的石油出口中断，以 5 月的 | | | | 出口水平为基准，可 ...