国泰航空(00293):升评级至"增持",目标价一举升至18港元 小摩认为，随着国泰利用其网络优势、资本自律性巩固在区域内的领导地位，股价具上涨潜力，正将目标 价的设定方法由市账率(PB)切换至企业价值对税息折旧及摊销前利润(EV/EBITDA)比率，以反映行业盈利能见 度提升及利润可持续性改善。 摩根大通 摩根大通发布研报称，亚洲全服务航空业正步入盈利可见性及利润率韧性兼备的新时代，国泰航空 (13.43,0.07,0.52%)(00293)正引领着区域的复苏与增长。因其收益于需求强劲、具纪律的运力管理及较早实 现资产负债表正常化;且有望从行业供给紧张、亚太区交通量增长强劲及灵活调配运力至最具吸引力市场的能 力中获益，将国泰的目标倍数定为6倍，目标价从9.1港元大幅升至18港元，蕴含约40%上升空间，评级从"中 性"升至"增持"。 ...

格隆汇2月25日｜据华尔街日报，Spirit Airlines已与其贷款机构达成协议，计划在初夏前以规模缩小但 仍维持独立的公司身份结束破产程序。根据协议，Spirit预计每年的机队成本将削减超过5.5亿美元，较 其最近一次破产前的水平减少超过65%。该公司于去年8月重返破产法庭，不到一年内，其先前的第11 章重组未能解决低成本营运模式带来的财务挑战。 ...

大摩闭门会：马年开市四问 260223 摘要 AI 技术的发展对市场有哪些影响？ AI 技术的发展正逐步显现出其多米诺骨牌式冲击效应，对多个行业产生颠覆性 影响。例如资本开支上修引发不同市场反馈，各行各业受到 AI 替代效应冲击明 显。这种非线性替代不仅改变了传统产业格局，还带来了新的投资机遇与挑战。 在这种背景下，企业需密切关注 AI 技术发展及其潜在影响，以便及时调整战略 布局，应对未来市场变化。 最近人工智能市场的非线性影响引起了广泛关注，尤其是在广告业、客服业、 研发辅助等领域。请问这种影响具体表现在哪些方面？ 美国关税政策的最新变化对全球市场和中国经济有何影响？ 尽管短期内美国对海外各国的名义关税税率有所下降，但中期来看，未来 5 到 6 个月内仍存在一定的不确定性。美国可能会使用其他工具组合，定向对重点 国家和重点行业产品加征关税。然而，从长期角度来看，两三年内关税的峰值 大概率已经过去。近期，美国最高法院裁定阿依帕（国家紧急状态权力法案） 不能授权总统征收关税，这意味着 2025 年实施的两波关税将被取消，包括芬 太尼关税和对全球各国广泛征收的对等关税。 尽管如此，美国仍可通过 301 法 案、 ...

欢迎来到马莲第一期大摩宏观策略谈马莲开工的首周A股还在休息港股已经开始脸天了 包括525和周一开门就有震荡 先跌后涨主要原因一个就是美国关税一夜生变大家会看到全球跟美国谈的这些贸易谈判是不是在起波折其次对于中国今年物价能不能实现再通胀摆脱通缩这个辩论还是比较白热化的 最后更重要的从海外市场也可以借鉴AI人工智能从普涨变成了分化一方面大家对于资本开支上修出现了不一样的市场反馈另外更重要的就是AI对于其他行业冲击有点像多米诺骨牌似的展开了好像每周都会大幅的冲击一个新的行业 所以马年到底投资市场能否实现一个TG不稳今天我们就试图跟我们的同事们一起来关注这三个议题包括了我们的股票的首席策略师Laura我们的中国经济学家蔡志鹏博士 以及我们也在消费的寒风中寻找亮点特别是旅游行业是否能保持热度这也比较应景跟刚刚过去的九天长假大伙可能在天南海北相互经历的这些游历也能互为印证所以我们交易行业的分析师谦伦也会上线来分析首先我像往常一样抛砖引玉讨论第一个就是美国关税的新变数我们的结论是 尽管短期之内美国对海外各国的民意关税的税率会下一个台阶但是中期看五到六个月之内还是有一些不确定性的它会动用一些其他的工具组合更加定向的对重点国家 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of the domestic travel and hotel industry during the 2026 Spring Festival, highlighting significant trends in both domestic and outbound tourism [1][2][3][6]. Key Points on Domestic Air Travel - Domestic flight supply during the 2026 Spring Festival contracted by 2%-3% year-on-year, which contributed to a demand increase [1][2]. - Air travel volume increased by approximately 14%-15% compared to the previous year, outperforming the overall market growth of 8%-9% [2][9]. - Ticket prices peaked around the seventh day of the festival, with a year-on-year increase of 6%-7%, and a maximum increase of 10% in the two weeks leading up to the festival [1][2]. Key Points on Domestic Hotel Industry - Hotel occupancy rates during the 2026 Spring Festival rose by about 17%-18% year-on-year, while prices slightly decreased by 1%-2% [1][3]. - High-star and mid-high star hotels achieved occupancy rates exceeding 75%, while budget hotels faced lower occupancy due to intense competition [7][17]. - The market is experiencing structural adjustments, with increased hotel supply in smaller cities and surrounding areas of major cities to meet dispersed demand [1][5]. Key Points on Outbound Tourism - The outbound tourism market showed significant recovery, with transportation and hotel volumes increasing by nearly 30% year-on-year [1][6]. - Airfare for outbound flights decreased by approximately 5% year-on-year, particularly for short-haul destinations in Southeast Asia, which have returned to 2019 levels [6][11]. - Hotel prices for outbound travel increased by about 5% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the market [6]. Key Points on Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The extension of the Spring Festival holiday by one day positively impacted service consumption, with a notable increase in travel, accommodation, and transportation sectors [1][8][9]. - The overall booking volume increased by around 20% compared to the previous year, with a clear trend of staggered travel before and after the holiday [12]. Key Points on Future Outlook for the Hotel Industry - The hotel supply growth rate is expected to stabilize between 3%-5%, with a cautious outlook on new supply due to market saturation [4][13]. - Hotel prices are anticipated to stabilize and show positive growth starting from March 2026 or during the summer peak season [4][13]. - Structural issues persist in the low-star hotel segment, which faces significant competition and operational challenges, particularly in regions like Yunnan and Guizhou [14]. Key Points on Regulatory Environment and Competition - Ongoing government investigations into environmental practices may impact operators, with potential adjustments in exclusivity, pricing tools, and commission structures [15][16]. - Despite these regulatory challenges, major platforms are expected to maintain their market positions due to structural advantages [16]. - Hotel operators like Huazhu and Atour have shown stable performance during the festival, with cautious strategies in response to regulatory uncertainties [17].

智通财经APP讯，国泰航空(00293)公布，股份回购已于2026年2月24日落实完成，而自此回购股份由公 司作为库存股份持有。 ...

运动员准备区、记分牌以及场馆冠名权等曾经的广告"禁区"都可能变成赞助商的"露脸"机会。 米兰冬奥会已经闭幕，下一站将聚焦在洛杉矶。 改变 2028洛杉矶奥组委首席执行官胡佛（Reynold Hoover）日前对媒体表示，尽管距离2028洛杉矶奥运会开 幕还有两年多的时间，其国内赞助收入已超过20亿美元，完成25亿美元总目标的80%。目前合作伙伴包 括达美航空、本田、谷歌、星巴克、康卡斯特等15家赞助商。 曾经，国际奥委会（IOC）严守"干净赛场"政策，严格控制在赛场内出现的赞助商广告，国际奥委会工 作人员甚至会检查场馆洗手间的烘干机，确保胶带盖住了烘干机品牌。但这一规定在2024年巴黎奥运会 上被打破，并在2026米兰-科尔蒂纳冬奥会上得以延续：三星手机的"胜利自拍"已成标配，谷爱凌等自 由式滑雪运动员在可口可乐旗下运动品牌爆锐（Powerade）的冷藏箱旁等待成绩，宝洁（P&G）旗下品 牌的纸巾则出现在花滑选手的等分区。 "我们持续为合作伙伴开放这些机会。"国际奥委会市场总监武马尔（Anne-Sophie Voumard）表示，赞 助商的产品现在可以被"自然地"、更广泛地呈现。 目前，奥林匹克全球合作伙伴项 ...

摩根大通发布研报称，亚洲全服务航空业正步入盈利可见性及利润率韧性兼备的新时代，国泰航空 (00293)正引领着区域的复苏与增长。因其收益于需求强劲、具纪律的运力管理及较早实现资产负债表 正常化; 且有望从行业供给紧张、亚太区交通量增长强劲及灵活调配运力至最具吸引力市场的能力中获 益，将国泰的目标倍数定为6倍，目标价从9.1港元大幅升至18港元，蕴含约40%上升空间，评级从"中 性"升至"增持"。 小摩认为，随着国泰利用其网络优势、资本自律性巩固在区域内的领导地位，股价具上涨潜力，正将目 标价的设定方法由市账率(PB)切换至企业价值对税息折旧及摊销前利润(EV/EBITDA)比率，以反映行业 盈利能见度提升及利润可持续性改善。 ...

摩根大通发表研报指，亚洲全服务航空业正步入盈利可见性及利润率韧性兼备的新时代，其中新加坡航 空及国泰航空正引领着区域的复苏与增长。因两家航空公司均收益于需求强劲、具纪律的运力管理及较 早实现资产负债表正常化；且有望从行业供给紧张、亚太区交通量增长强劲及灵活调配运力至最具吸引 力市场的能力中获益。 参考行业平均水平后，摩通将国泰的目标倍数定为6倍，新航为6.5倍，国泰新目标价从9.1港元大幅升至 18港元，蕴含约40%上升空间；新航目标价从7新加坡元升至8.4新加坡元，蕴含约20%上升空间；两者 评级同从"中性"升至"增持"。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [47]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel season has seen a record high in cross-regional personnel flow, with an estimated total of 5.08 billion trips in the first 20 days, averaging 250 million trips per day, which is a 5.6% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [9][10]. - The aviation sector has shown strong performance in both passenger volume and ticket prices, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in passenger volume and a 3.3% increase in average ticket prices during the same period [10][11]. - The 2026 Spring Festival is characterized by two main trends: "secondary travel" and "concentrated return trips," driven by a later Spring Festival and longer holiday period [12][13]. Summary by Sections Passenger Volume and Pricing - In the first 20 days of the Spring Festival, the average daily passenger volume for civil aviation reached 2.376 million, a 5.4% increase year-on-year, while the average ticket price was 1003 yuan, up 3.3% year-on-year [10][11]. - The domestic average passenger load factor was 85.1%, reflecting a 1.1% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand [11]. Market Dynamics - Six listed airlines collectively withdrew 5 aircraft in January 2026, indicating a tightening supply constraint in the industry [26]. - The report highlights that except for Spring Airlines, all other major airlines have shown negative year-on-year growth in capacity deployment, with Spring Airlines leading at 4.5% growth [26]. Demand and Future Outlook - The demand structure in the aviation industry is improving, with a rebound in business travel sentiment since September 2025 [34]. - The introduction of visa-free policies for Canada and the UK starting February 17, 2026, is expected to boost cross-border travel demand [34]. - High passenger load factors are anticipated to lead to increased price elasticity, with the potential for significant price increases in 2026 [35]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines for potential elasticity release, as well as low-cost carrier Spring Airlines for its core competitive advantages [35].