尽管玖纸自有纸浆产量将从2025财年的300万吨增至2026财年预估的470万吨，并于2027年后进一步提 升，但单位成本降低及利润率扩张的效应可能减弱。例如，原本利润最高的广西北海工厂的双胶纸产 品，因拥有新建自有纸浆产能的竞争对手降价、以及作为纸浆原料的国内木片价格从每吨1,000元人民 币涨至1,200元人民币，其每吨净利润已从800元人民币至1,000元人民币降至近期的500元人民币至600元 人民币。为应对潜在的木片短缺，玖纸已租赁船只以便有必要时进口木片，且在可预见的未来采购成本 可能微幅上升。 美银证券与玖纸首席财务官张元福举行业绩后电话会议。玖纸2025财年下半年业绩超预期，主要归功于 自有纸浆供应带来的成本节省优于预期，而基础箱板纸市场表现持续温和。他粗略估算，2025财年下半 年实现的每吨净利润约129元人民币中，约有80元人民币来自此成本领导优势。 智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发表报告称，预期玖龙纸业(02689)将维持高于同业的美元计价利润，但进 一步扩大此优势可能面临挑战。该行微幅下调玖纸2026至2027财年预测，并同步下调目标价8%至6港 元。重申"买入"评级，因认为以7.4倍2 ...

美银证券发表报告称，预期玖龙纸业(02689)将维持高于同业的美元计价利润，但进一步扩大此优势可 能面临挑战。该行微幅下调玖纸2026至2027财年预测，并同步下调目标价8%至6港元。重申"买入"评 级，因认为以7.4倍2026年预测市盈率计，估值具吸引力，且潜在需求加速可能推升利润率，成本优势 亦有助限制盈利下行风险。 美银证券与玖纸首席财务官张元福举行业绩后电话会议。玖纸2025财年下半年业绩超预期，主要归功于 自有纸浆供应带来的成本节省优于预期，而基础箱板纸市场表现持续温和。他粗略估算，2025财年下半 年实现的每吨净利润约129元人民币中，约有80元人民币来自此成本领导优势。 尽管玖纸自有纸浆产量将从2025财年的300万吨增至2026财年预估的470万吨，并于2027年后进一步提 升，但单位成本降低及利润率扩张的效应可能减弱。例如，原本利润最高的广西北海工厂的双胶纸产 品，因拥有新建自有纸浆产能的竞争对手降价、以及作为纸浆原料的国内木片价格从每吨1,000元人民 币涨至1,200元人民币，其每吨净利润已从800元人民币至1,000元人民币降至近期的500元人民币至600元 人民币。为应对潜在的木片短 ...

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 徐佳 特种纸龙头仙鹤股份（603733.SH）再次计划募资扩产。 日前，仙鹤股份发布定增预案，公司拟非公开发行股票不超过2.12亿股，募集资金总额不超过30亿元，其中21亿 元投入到广西三江口新区高性能纸基新材料项目二期工程项目，剩余9亿元用于补充流动资金。 长江商报记者注意到，作为国内特种纸行业的龙头企业，仙鹤股份将借助本次定增扩充高端产能，以巩固行业领 先地位。上述募投项目完全达产之后，公司将新增浆纸合计年产能达130万吨。 数据显示，2025年上半年，仙鹤股份完成特种浆纸产量110.79万吨，同比增长98.55%；特种浆纸销售量83.34万 吨，同比增长62.25%；实现营业收入59.91亿元，同比增长30.14%。 不过，随着重大项目的推进，仙鹤股份的资金需求扩大。截至2025年6月末，仙鹤股份资产总额248.2亿元，资产 负债率66.69%。通过此次定增募资，仙鹤股份将降低资产负债率，增强公司的抗风险能力。 拟定增30亿建设广西二期项目 根据发行计划，仙鹤股份拟向不超过35名特定投资者非公开发行股票数量不超过2.12亿股，募集资金总额不超过 30亿元，在扣除发行费用后的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper's FY25 results met expectations, with a revenue increase of 6.3% YoY to Rmb63.24 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of Rmb1.77 billion, reflecting a significant 176% HoH increase in 2HFY25 [1]. Sales and Production Trends - The company reported a total sales volume increase of 10% YoY to 21.5 million tonnes in FY25, driven by growth in kraft paper (+1.10 million tonnes), ivory board (+500,000 tonnes), and P&W paper (+400,000 tonnes) [1]. - For FY26, the company has commissioned 1.2 million tonnes of ivory board paper, 350,000 tonnes of P&W paper, and 700,000 tonnes of chemical pulp in 1HFY26, with plans for an additional 350,000 tonnes of P&W paper within the year [2]. - Forecasts indicate paper production and sales volume will increase by over 5% YoY in FY26, with plans to commission 700,000 tonnes of ivory board paper in Chongqing and another 500,000 tonnes in Tianjin in 1HFY27 [3]. Pricing and Profitability - The company anticipates a near-term recovery in linerboard and corrugated board prices, estimating profit per tonne (before interest on perpetual bonds) at Rmb59 in 1HFY25 and Rmb151 in 2HFY25, with the latter benefiting from increased self-produced pulp output and lower thermal coal prices [4]. - Price hikes for linerboard and corrugated board have been progressing since July, supported by improving industry demand and rising domestic wastepaper prices, although costs per tonne have slightly increased due to rising coal and wastepaper prices [4]. Capital Expenditure and Financial Outlook - In FY25, the company's capex reached Rmb14.8 billion, a 15.7% YoY increase, while the debt-to-asset ratio rose by 1 percentage point YoY to 66%. For FY26, capex is guided at Rmb11 billion, reflecting ongoing expansion efforts [5]. - Following the implementation of cost-cutting and efficiency measures, earnings forecasts for FY26 and FY27 have been raised by 11% and 15% to Rmb2.75 billion and Rmb2.88 billion, respectively. The stock is currently trading at 0.5x and 0.4x P/B, with a target price increase of 17% to HK$7, indicating a 22% upside [5].

2025 年 9 月 29 日 银河能化-20250929 早报 【银河期货】原油期货早报（25-09-29） 【相关资讯】 伊拉克石油部表示，在达成一项临时协议打破僵局后，伊拉克北部库尔德地区通往土耳其 的输油管道周六恢复原油输送，为两年半以来首次。 三位熟悉谈判情况的消息人士称，OPEC+可能会在 10 月 5 日的会议上批准再次增加石油产 量，每天至少增加 13.7 万桶，因为油价上涨促使该组织试图进一步夺回市场份额。消息人 士称，最终决定尚未做出。 知情人士称，美国贸易谈判代表已告知印度官员，减少购买俄罗斯石油是降低印度关税并 达成贸易协议的关键。 俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫周六告诉西方国家，任何针对俄罗斯的侵略都将遭到"果断的回 应"，他警告不要试图在俄罗斯领空击落飞机，并指责德国发表军国主义言论。 美国总统特朗普周四公布了一系列新进口关税，包括从 10 月 1 日起对专利药品征收 100% 的关税，对重型卡车征收 25%的关税。白宫一位官员表示，对于与美国签订贸易协议明确 此类关税减免的国家，政府对其进口专利药品将维持 15%的关税上限。消息人士称，来自 英国的品牌药品将被征收 100%的关税。 【市 ...

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 行业资讯 1.【国内双胶纸周度企业库存分析】据卓创资讯数据监测统计，本周四双胶纸库存天数较上周四上升1.26%，本周增幅环比扩大0.25个百分 点。行业整体开工水平回升，货源供应量增加，但市场需求跟进有限，纸厂库存进一步累积。 2.【国内双胶纸周度企业开工负荷分析】据卓创资讯数据统计，本周双胶纸开工负荷率在51.54%，环比上升0.76个百分点，本周增幅环比扩 大0.10个百分点。周内山东个别产线开工回升，其余规模纸厂开工水平变化不大，行业开工负荷率小幅提升。 资料来源： 卓创资讯，国泰君安期货研 ...

数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 近一年中国纸浆、纸及其制品出口情况统计图 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年7月中国纸浆、纸及其制品进口数量为356万吨，同比增长10.7%，进口 金额为22.26亿美元，同比增长3.6%，2025年7月中国纸浆、纸及其制品出口数量为153万吨，同比增长 7.5%，出口金额为24.94亿美元，同比下降1.1%。 近一年中国纸浆、纸及其制品进口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国再生纸浆行业市场现状调查及未来趋势研判报告》 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xianhe Co., Ltd. plans to issue A-shares to raise up to 3 billion yuan for its high-performance paper-based new materials project and to supplement working capital [1][2] Group 1: Fundraising and Investment Details - The company intends to issue no more than 211,792,834 shares to a maximum of 35 specific investors, with total fundraising not exceeding 3 billion yuan [1] - The total investment for the Guangxi Sanjiangkou New Area high-performance paper-based new materials project is 5.404 billion yuan, with 2.1 billion yuan allocated from the raised funds [2][5] - The project aims to achieve an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons of pulp and 700,000 tons of paper, totaling 1.3 million tons [5] Group 2: Market and Industry Context - Xianhe Co., Ltd. has been a leader in the specialty paper industry for over 20 years, benefiting from domestic consumption upgrades and stringent environmental policies [3] - The global focus on plastic pollution and the implementation of "plastic bans" have created significant market opportunities for biodegradable and recyclable paper-based materials [6] - Consumer preferences are shifting towards high-quality, food-safe packaging, driven by rising living standards and new consumption models [6] Group 3: Strategic Objectives of the Fundraising - The fundraising aims to strengthen the company's market leadership and support its strategic development plans amid favorable industry conditions [7] - The funds will help alleviate working capital pressure and optimize the financial structure, enabling the company to meet the funding needs of large-scale projects and technological advancements [8] Group 4: Recent Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.991 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.14%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 13.80% to 474 million yuan [15]

9月26日盘中，胶版印刷纸期货主力合约偏弱震荡，最低下探至4230.00元。截止收盘，胶版印刷纸主力 合约报4230.00元，跌幅0.19%。 瑞达期货：预计双胶纸维持区间偏弱震荡 供应端，本周（20250919-0925）双胶纸产量21.0万吨，较上期增加0.1万吨，增幅0.5%，产能利用率 56.9%，较上期上升0.2%。库存端，截止2025年9月25日，本期双胶纸生产企业库存124.26万吨，环比增 幅1.3%。双胶纸产业库存处于同期高水平，终端整体需求表现力度欠佳，预计双胶纸维持区间偏弱震 荡。OP2601合约建议下方关注4150附近支撑，上方4300附近压力，区间操作。 胶版印刷纸期货主力微跌0.19%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 新世纪期货：双胶纸整体偏空对待 上一工作日现货市场价格偏稳运行。目前双胶纸排产相对稳定，开工较上周小幅回升，但9月份处于下 游季节性淡季，新一轮出版招标尚未开始，加之纸价利润低位，高价备货积极性低。该行业处于产能过 剩阶段，短期供给稳定需求不佳，供需矛盾突出，整体偏空对待。 机构 核心观点 新世纪期货 双胶纸整体偏空对待 瑞达期货（002961） 预计双胶纸维 ...

Core Viewpoint - 中金上调玖龙纸业FY26-27净利润预测，分别增加11%和15%至27.5亿和28.8亿元，维持跑赢行业评级，并将目标价上调17%至7港元 [1] Financial Performance - FY25 revenue reached 632.41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with a net profit of 17.67 billion, aligning with prior forecasts [1] - In 2HFY25, net profit was 12.97 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 176%, driven by self-produced pulp benefits and reduced coal prices [1] Production and Sales - FY25 total sales volume was 21.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%, with core growth in牛卡纸 (110,000 tons), 白卡纸 (50,000 tons), and 文化纸 (40,000 tons) [1] - In 1HFY26, the company has launched 1.2 million tons of white cardboard, 350,000 tons of cultural paper, and 700,000 tons of chemical pulp, with plans for an additional 350,000 tons of cultural paper [2] Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about the paper price recovery, estimating profits of 59 yuan/ton and 151 yuan/ton for 1HFY25 and 2HFY25 respectively, supported by improved industry demand and rising waste paper prices [3] - The company anticipates a slight increase in costs due to rising coal and waste paper prices, but expects a small recovery in profits for box board and corrugated paper from July to September [3] Capital Expenditure - FY25 capital expenditure was 14.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, with continued pressure on free cash flow and a debt ratio of 66% [4] - For FY26, the company has guided a capital expenditure of 11 billion, which is higher than previous guidance [4]