Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][8]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with contract prices rising due to increased demand and limited domestic production [1][5]. - The long-term price of phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining ore grades and increasing demand from new applications such as lithium iron phosphate [2][3][7]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for certain pesticides, including glyphosate, is anticipated to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity in the pesticide industry [4][7]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - Potassium fertilizer prices are recovering due to strong demand, with domestic production expected to decrease by 2.7% to 5.5 million tons in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a record high of 12.633 million tons, up 9.1% year-on-year [1][25]. - As of January 2026, the average market price for potassium chloride was 3,295 CNY/ton, reflecting a 27.52% increase year-on-year [1][41]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Yara International, with projected potassium chloride production of 2.8 million tons in 2025 and 4 million tons in 2026 [5][8]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is characterized by tight supply, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining above 900 CNY/ton for over two years [2][50]. - As of January 30, 2026, the price for 30% grade phosphate rock was 1,040 CNY/ton in Hubei and 970 CNY/ton in Yunnan, stable compared to the previous month [2][50]. - Companies with clear expansion plans such as Chuanheng Co., Yuntianhua, and Xingfa Group are recommended for investment [7]. Pesticides - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to increase production costs for pesticide companies, leading to a potential rise in prices for glyphosate and other products [4][7]. - The production of glyphosate in China is projected to grow significantly from 18,300 tons in 2020 to 120,400 tons by 2025, with an annual compound growth rate of 45.78% [4][7]. - Recommended companies in the pesticide sector include Lier Chemical and Liming Chemical, which are expected to benefit from price increases and improved margins [7].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector experienced a significant rebound on February 3, 2026, with the chemical ETF (516020) rising by 3.97% and individual stocks in the phosphate, potash, and soda ash sectors showing notable gains [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical ETF (516020) saw a maximum intraday increase of 4.3% before closing up 3.97% [1] - Key stocks included Hongda Co., which surged by 9.16%, and both Cangge Mining and Hualu Hengsheng, which rose over 6% [1] Group 2: Price Trends and Analysis - Recent price increases in various basic chemical products, including dyes and para-nitrochlorobenzene, have been attributed to the cancellation of export tax rebates, leading to a rush in exports [1] - Guojin Securities remains optimistic about investment opportunities in the basic chemical sector, recommending a focus on leading companies and those experiencing price increases from a low base [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The chemical sector has been on an upward trend since the "anti-involution" movement began in July 2025, with investment and supply-side logic strengthening since the fourth quarter of 2025 [1] - Demand from emerging sectors such as energy storage, AI, and commercial aerospace is accelerating, while traditional sectors like textiles and agriculture are expected to continue recovering [1] - Huafu Securities anticipates a rebound in profitability for the chemical industry in 2026, marking a new starting point for supply-demand rebalancing [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Dongfang Tower's stock price increased by 5.03%, reaching 26.31 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 32.731 billion yuan [1] - Dongfang Tower, established on August 1, 1996, and listed on February 11, 2011, specializes in the research, design, production, sales, and installation of steel structures and tower products [1] - The company's main business revenue composition includes potassium chloride (65.07%), angle steel towers (16.09%), steel structures (11.72%), steel pipe towers (4.63%), sodium bromide (1.73%), and other segments [1] Group 2 - HSBC Jintrust Fund holds a significant position in Dongfang Tower, with its fund, HSBC Jintrust Huiying Mixed Fund (009475), reducing its holdings by 44,000 shares in the fourth quarter, now holding 83,000 shares, which accounts for 2.26% of the fund's net value [2] - The HSBC Jintrust Huiying Mixed Fund has a total scale of 67.8717 million yuan and has achieved a year-to-date return of 1.71% [2] - The fund managers, Wu Liu and Liu Yang, have been managing the fund for 1 year and 262 days, and 1 year and 269 days respectively, with varying best and worst fund returns during their tenure [3]

Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a situation where increased production does not result in increased profits, with the industry's operating income profit margin declining from 8.03% in 2021 to 4.85% in 2024 [2][17] - The report recommends investment directions in oil and gas, refining and chemical, potash fertilizer, and phosphorus chemicals, anticipating a gradual recovery in profitability as supply-side reforms take effect [4][21] Supply Side - Fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector turned negative starting June 2025, indicating the end of the current expansion cycle, with the "anti-involution" policy introduced in July aimed at curbing low-price competition and promoting the orderly exit of outdated capacity [2][19] - The report expects stricter approval for new chemical product capacities and accelerated clearance of outdated capacities, effectively alleviating the oversupply issue in the petrochemical industry [19][20] Demand Side - Traditional demand is expected to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and fiscal stimulus, while emerging demands from sectors like renewable energy and AI will drive the need for key chemical materials [3][19] - The report highlights that China's chemical products account for over 40% of global sales, and with overseas capacity being cleared, Chinese chemical companies are expected to gain market share globally [20] Oil Price Outlook - Geopolitical risks have led to fluctuations in international oil prices, with Brent and WTI prices rising by 16.17% and 13.57% respectively by the end of January 2026 [4][21] - The report forecasts Brent oil prices to stabilize between $55-65 per barrel and WTI prices between $52-62 per barrel in 2026, influenced by OPEC+ production decisions and high operational costs in the U.S. shale oil sector [22][30] Key Industry Research - The refining and chemical sector is expected to see improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with the report suggesting a focus on companies like China Petroleum and Rongsheng Petrochemical for potential recovery in refining profits [7][22] - In the potash fertilizer sector, the report recommends Yara International, which has significant potash reserves and is expected to increase production capacity significantly by 2026 [8][22] - The phosphorus chemical sector is anticipated to benefit from increased demand driven by energy storage applications, with a recommendation for Chuanheng Co. due to its strong resource base [23][24] Investment Portfolio - The recommended investment portfolio includes China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Yara International, and Chuanheng Co., highlighting their competitive advantages and growth potential in the current market environment [24][25]

Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a situation where increased production does not translate into higher profits, with the industry's operating income profit margin declining from 8.03% in 2021 to 4.85% in 2024 [2][17] - The report recommends investment directions in oil and gas, refining and chemical, potash fertilizer, and phosphorus chemicals, anticipating a gradual recovery in profitability as supply-side reforms take effect [4][21] Supply Side - Investment in fixed assets in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector turned negative starting June 2025, indicating the end of the current expansion cycle, with the "anti-involution" policy introduced in July aimed at curbing low-price competition and promoting the orderly exit of outdated capacity [2][19] - The report expects stricter approval for new chemical product capacities and accelerated clearance of outdated capacities, effectively alleviating the oversupply issue in the petrochemical industry [19][20] Demand Side - Traditional demand is expected to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and fiscal stimulus, while emerging demands from sectors like renewable energy and AI will drive the need for key chemical materials [3][19] - The report highlights that China's chemical products account for over 40% of global sales, and with overseas capacity being cleared, Chinese chemical companies are expected to gain market share globally [20] Oil Price Outlook - Geopolitical risks have led to fluctuations in international oil prices, with Brent and WTI prices rising by 16.17% and 13.57% respectively by the end of January 2026 [4][21] - The report forecasts Brent oil prices to stabilize between $55-65 per barrel and WTI prices between $52-62 per barrel in 2026, influenced by OPEC+ production decisions and high operational costs in the U.S. shale oil sector [22][30] Key Industry Research - The refining and chemical sector is expected to see improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with the report suggesting that the "anti-involution" policy will effectively optimize the supply side, particularly in the refining sector [22][32] - The potash fertilizer sector is highlighted for its potential growth, with companies like Asia Potash International expected to expand production significantly, reaching 400,000 tons by 2026 [8][22] - The phosphorus chemical sector is anticipated to benefit from increased demand driven by energy storage applications, with companies like Chuanheng Co. expected to maintain high prices for phosphorus ore [23][24]

（文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 化工ETF天弘（159133）跟踪的是中证细分化工产业主题指数，该指数全面覆盖化工各个细分领域，包 含磷化工、氟化工、磷肥、钾肥等行业龙头。化工ETF天弘（159133）以及联接基金（C类015897）可 一键分享化工板块整体机遇。 国盛证券表示，供给格局改善，化工行业迎来估值修复。自2025年7月"反内卷"热潮以来，化工板块迎 来持续上涨。2025年Q4以来伴随化工ETF的发行、双碳政策发布，化工投资资金侧、供给侧逻辑迎来加 强。 2月2日，三大指数集体下跌，中证细分化工产业主题指数下跌5.15%，该指数成分股中，恩捷股份、天 赐材料飘红。 相关ETF方面，化工ETF天弘（159133）截至发稿成交额超6800万元，换手率近3%，溢折率0.05%，盘 中频现溢价交易；Wind金融终端数据显示，该ETF盘中获净申购达8500万份。 资金流向方面，该ETF上个交易日（1月30日）净流入额为2.77亿元，截至上个交易日，已连续23个交 易日获资金净流入，累计净流入额超17亿元。该ETF最新流通份额为19.7亿份，最新流通规模为24.27亿 元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. has experienced fluctuations in stock price and trading volume, with a notable decline in recent days despite a year-to-date increase in stock value [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On February 2, Salt Lake Co. saw a stock price drop of 2.01%, trading at 32.12 CNY per share, with a total transaction volume of 1.907 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 169.965 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 14.06%, but it has declined by 10.58% over the last five trading days [1]. - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with a net purchase of 133 million CNY on January 5 [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Salt Lake Co. reported a revenue of 11.111 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.503 billion CNY, which is a 43.34% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company's main business revenue composition includes 79.16% from potash products, 18.32% from lithium products, and 2.40% from other sources [1]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Salt Lake Co. was 190,000, a decrease of 5.45% from the previous period [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 160 million shares, an increase of 34.006 million shares from the previous period [3].

钾被誉为"粮食的粮食"，是保障国家粮食安全不可或缺的战略性资源。"十四五"时期，面对复杂严峻的 国际环境和国内持续增长的农业需求，我国钾肥行业砥砺前行，在资源保障、产能建设、科技创新与市 场调控等多条战线上取得系统性成就，构建起更为稳固可靠的供应体系，为端稳"中国饭碗"奠定了坚实 基础。 其四是科技创新与数智融合取得新进展，钾肥关键生产工艺从粗放转向精细和绿色。一方面，数字化转 型驱动产业升级，盐湖股份等企业通过数据智能调控和工业互联网平台建设，推动生产从"人工经 验"向"智能调控"转变。另一方面，绿色制造体系不断完善，国投罗钾牵头制定首项硫酸钾绿色工厂行 业标准，盐湖股份则依托循环经济模式及当地风、光等绿电资源，打造"资源—产品—再生资源"的闭 环，促进行业绿色低碳转型。周月表示："这些进步共同增强了国内钾肥自给能力，推动我国钾肥技术 在国际舞台上从'跟跑'向'并跑'甚至'领跑'转变。" 其五是钾肥品种不断丰富，应用领域更加多元。周月指出，目前，我国钾肥行业正朝着产品功能化、产 能布局均衡化与服务融合化的方向快速发展。在产品方面，钾肥行业已从传统氯化钾、硫酸钾拓展至全 水溶硫酸钾、高纯硝酸钾、生物钾肥等高端 ...

盐湖股份所属申万行业为：基础化工-农化制品-钾肥。所属概念板块包括：有色(镁)、PVC、特色小 镇、化肥、锂矿等。 截至9月30日，盐湖股份股东户数19.00万，较上期减少5.45%；人均流通股27844股，较上期增加 5.76%。2025年1月-9月，盐湖股份实现营业收入111.11亿元，同比增长6.34%；归母净利润45.03亿元， 同比增长43.34%。 分红方面，盐湖股份A股上市后累计派现53.06亿元。近三年，累计派现0.00元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，盐湖股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第六大流 通股东，持股1.60亿股，相比上期增加3400.67万股。 1月27日，盐湖股份盘中下跌2.03%，截至09:55，报35.19元/股，成交12.75亿元，换手率0.68%，总市值 1862.10亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出1.26亿元，特大单买入1.84亿元，占比14.41%，卖出2.91亿元，占比 22.83%；大单买入3.40亿元，占比26.64%，卖出3.58亿元，占比28.10%。 盐湖股份今年以来股价涨24.96%，近5个交易日涨3.29%，近20日涨21 ...

Core Viewpoint - The capital market is experiencing a "price increase wave," with various sectors such as non-ferrous zinc, gold stocks, non-ferrous copper, and small metals leading the gains, driven by price hikes in these commodities [1][2][13]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 26, the A-share market saw non-ferrous metals, including zinc, gold, copper, and small metals, significantly leading the gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [2][14]. - The price of February gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange surpassed $5,000 per ounce, while spot silver reached a new high of $109.453 per ounce on January 26 [3][14]. Group 2: Gold and Silver Price Trends - Central banks' strategic asset allocation needs are a core support for the current rise in gold prices, alongside the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, which reduces the attractiveness of holding dollar assets [5][19]. - Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold price target from $4,900 to $5,400 per ounce, citing increasing demand from private investors and central banks [8][19]. - The surge in silver prices is attributed to its relatively low valuation compared to gold and the inclusion of silver in national reserves by some central banks, enhancing its financial investment attributes [8][19]. Group 3: Chemical and Industrial Sectors - The chemical sector is witnessing a return to price increase trends, with various sub-sectors like lithium battery materials and fertilizers experiencing price hikes due to supply-demand mismatches [9][20]. - Major passive component companies have announced price increases for their products, indicating a new upward cycle in the global passive component market [10][20]. Group 4: Company Earnings Forecasts - Companies are reporting significant profit increases due to price hikes, with notable forecasts including: - Huisheng Biological expects a net profit of approximately 235 million to 271 million yuan, a growth of 1265.93% to 1444.54% [11][22]. - Zhaojin Gold anticipates a turnaround with a net profit of 122 million to 182 million yuan, driven by rising gold prices [12][22]. - Yaji International forecasts a net profit of 1.66 billion to 1.97 billion yuan, a growth of 75% to 107%, due to stable production and rising prices in potassium fertilizer [23][22].