长江期货饲料养殖产业周报 2025-06-09 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：韦 蕾 执业编号: F0244258 投资咨询号:Z0011781 联 系 人：刘汉缘 执业编号: F03101804 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 目 录 01 生猪：供强需弱，期价承压 ◆ 期现端：截至6月6日，全国现货价格14.26元/公斤，较上周下跌0.36元/公斤；河南猪价14.09元/公斤，较上周下跌0.27元/公斤；生猪2509报价13460元/吨，较上周 下跌145元/吨；09合约基差630元/吨，较上周下跌125元/吨。周度猪价延续偏弱，养殖端出栏积极增加，而端午节后消费转淡叠加天气炎热，需求跟进乏力，价格继 续承压，但价格下跌至14元/公斤附近，抗价惜售和二次育肥进场仍存，价格低位有支撑。09主力周度震荡走弱，基差小跌，周末现货跌幅收窄，逐步止跌企稳。 ◆ 供应端： 2024年5-11月能繁母猪存栏量持续缓增，性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，5-9月供应呈增加态势，虽然养殖利润下滑，产能有所去化，但整体去化幅度有限 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Pig Market**: In the short - term, the pig market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, with prices likely to decline but limited by factors like secondary fattening and low frozen product inventory. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is large, and the forward price rebound is under pressure. The futures market is expected to be in a low - level shock in the short - term [1]. - **Egg Market**: Short - term egg prices lack support due to weak post - festival demand. In the third quarter, supply and demand both increase, and price rebound is under pressure. In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure may ease [2]. - **Oil Market**: The current oil market shows differentiation. Palm oil is relatively strong, but the overall inventory accumulation trend in Malaysia restricts its rise. Soybean oil has supply pressure and uncertainty about biodiesel policies. Rapeseed oil has price support from the relationship between China and Canada, but there is short - term supply pressure [5][6][7]. - **Soybean Meal Market**: In the short - term, the soybean meal market is expected to be in a wide - range shock. In the long - term, due to factors such as increased import costs and tightened supply and demand, the price is expected to rise steadily [8][9]. - **Corn Market**: In the short - term, the corn price has support, and the futures price is expected to be in a high - level shock. In the long - term, the supply and demand are marginally tightened, but the price increase space is limited by substitutes [9]. 3. Summary by Product Pig - **Spot Price**: On June 6, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan/kg compared to the previous day, while the price in Guangdong remained stable [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In June, the supply pressure is large, and the seasonal demand is weak. In the long - term, the supply from June to September 2024 is increasing, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures market is in a low - level shock in the short - term. It is recommended to short at the rebound pressure level [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On June 6, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing decreased compared to the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term demand is weak after the Dragon Boat Festival. In the medium - term, the supply in July - August 2025 is expected to increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 07 contract, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 08 and 09 contracts, it is recommended to hedge when the price rebounds. For the 10 contract, it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. Oil - **Palm Oil**: On June 5, the Malaysian palm oil futures price decreased. The export in May improved, and the inventory accumulation slowed down. In the long - term, the inventory accumulation trend remains. The 08 contract is in a shock stage after the rebound [3][5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The EPA is about to announce the US biofuel blending plan. The US soybean fundamentals are mixed. The domestic soybean to - port volume is large, and the inventory accumulation expectation is strong [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed are tightening. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level, and the price has support from the relationship between China and Canada [7]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be in a range shock. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil - meal ratio short - selling strategy [8]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Price**: On June 5, the domestic soybean meal spot price was 2790 yuan/ton, and the basis was 09 - 170 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the US soybean is expected to be in a shock. The domestic soybean supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price is expected to rise steadily [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract is recommended to operate in the range of [2930, 3000] in the short - term and go long after the callback in mid - June [9]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On June 5, the new corn purchase price in Jinzhou Port remained stable, and the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao decreased by 6 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the price has support. In the long - term, the supply and demand are marginally tightened, but the price increase space is limited by substitutes [9]. - **Strategy**: The overall trend is expected to be stable and upward. The 07 contract is in a high - level shock, and it is recommended to go long at the lower edge of the range. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 4. Today's Futures Market Overview | Product | Previous Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Two Days Ago Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active (US cents/bushel) | 1,050.50 | 1,044.75 | 5.75 | | Soybean Meal Main (Yuan/ton) | 2,958 | 2,939 | 19.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal (Yuan/ton) | 2,900 | 2,900 | 0.00 | | CBOT Corn Active (US cents/bushel) | 438.25 | 438.00 | 0.25 | | Corn Main (Yuan/ton) | 2,335 | 2,333 | 2.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot (Yuan/ton) | 2,330 | 2,330 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active (US cents/pound) | 46.62 | 46.72 | - 0.10 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil (Yuan/ton) | 7,980 | 8,000 | - 20.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active (Ringgit/ton) | 3,904 | 3,950 | - 46.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot (Yuan/ton) | 8,530 | 8,600 | - 70.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active (Canadian dollars/ton) | 695.10 | 699.80 | - 4.70 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot (Yuan/ton) | 9,160 | 9,160 | 0.00 | | Egg Main (Yuan/500 kg) | 2,878 | 2,877 | 1.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot (Yuan/jin) | 2.70 | 2.70 | 0.00 | | Pig Futures Main (Yuan/ton) | 13,485 | 13,490 | - 5.00 | | Henan Pig Spot (Yuan/kg) | 14.21 | 14.21 | 0.00 | [10]

6 月 5 日山东德州报价 2.7 元/斤，较上日稳定；北京报价 3.02 元/斤，较上 日稳定。短期端午节后需求转弱，叠加梅雨季来临，鸡蛋容易发生质量问 题，渠道及下游采购心态偏弱，蛋价支撑有限，不过近期淘汰有所加速，一 定程度缓解供应压力，各环节库存有所消化，关注蛋价跌至低位后冷库入库 积极性。中期来看，25 年 3-4 月补栏量依旧较高，对应 25 年 7-8 月新开 产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前期利润积累，抗风险能力增强，产能出清或需 要时间，整体高补苗量下，远期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。长 期来看，经过上半年养殖利润不佳传导，养殖端补苗积极性有所下滑，四季 度新开产或环比减少，关注三季度淘汰及鸡病情况。短期节后需求转弱，蛋 价支撑不足，三季度供需双增，蛋价反弹承压，四季度供应压力或有所缓 解，关注近端淘汰及鸡病情况。策略建议：07 进入 6 月后限仓，观望为 主，关注 3020-3060 压力表现；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待，养殖企业等待反 弹逢高套保，08 关注 3750-3800 压力，关注饲料端及淘汰扰动；10 关注 逢低多机会。关注淘鸡、鸡病、天气等因素（数据来源：蛋 e 网、同花顺 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 6 月 4 日辽宁现货 13.9-14.2 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.1- 14.5 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.1-14.3 元/公斤，较上一日 稳定；广东 15.2-15.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定，今日早间全国生猪价格北 跌南稳。6 月生猪出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，随着气温升高和院校 放假，季节性需求淡季显现，且屠企加工利润仍亏损，整体消费难有好的表 现，在供强需弱格局下，猪价仍有下跌风险，不过二次育肥和冻品库存低位 进场积极性仍存，限制猪价跌幅，整体维持震荡调整，关注企业出栏节奏、 二育和冻品入库、体重变化。中长期来看，虽然近期行业会议让产业降能 繁、降体重、不让继续二育，受此影响远月期价上涨，但能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，6-9 月供应呈增 加态势，且 2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能虽有所去化，不过行业有利润， 去化幅度有限，处于均衡区间上限，四季度供应压力仍大，远期价格反弹承 压。策略上，盘面贴水提前兑现弱势预期，估值偏低，短期低位震荡。07 压力位 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 叶 天 咨询电话：027-65777093 从业编号：F03089203 投资咨询编号：Z0020750 5 月 30 日辽宁现货 14.1-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.4-14.8 元/ 公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.2-14.4 元/公斤，较上一日稳定； 广东 15.2-15.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定，今日早间全国生猪价格稳定为 主。5 月中下旬养殖端加快出栏节奏，生猪出栏体重高位回落，供应压力逐 步释放，月底月末养殖端或惜售，且局部地区调运政策影响，市场挺价情绪 增强，低位二次育肥滚动进场仍存。需求端，临近端午节备货需求增加，不 过天气转热，猪肉消费淡季，且屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，短期供需 继续博弈，猪价低位存支撑，震荡加剧，关注企业出栏节奏、二育进出情 况、体重变化。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性 能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，5-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 29 日辽宁现货 14.1-14.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.4-14.8 元/ 公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；广东 15- 15.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定，今日早间全国生猪价格稳定为主。5 月中下 旬养殖端加快出栏节奏，生猪出栏体重高位回落，供应压力释放，月底月末 养殖端或惜售，且局部地区调运政策影响，市场挺价情绪增强，低位二次育 肥滚动进场仍存。需求端，临近端午节备货需求增加，不过猪肉消费淡季， 且屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，短期供需继续博弈，猪价低位存支撑， 震荡加剧，关注企业出栏节奏、二育进出情况、体重变化。中长期来看，能 繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升， 5-9 月供应呈增加态 势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压 力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下，猪价 仍有下跌风险，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动 对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润， 去 ...

5 月 28 日山东德州报价 2.9 元/斤，较上日稳定；北京报价 3.2 元/斤，较上 日稳定。短期随着端午临近，鸡蛋性价比尚可，终端消费预计增加，渠道及 下游采购需求或增加，叠加淘汰有所加速，缓解供应压力，预计对蛋价形成 支撑，不过 5 月新开产量较大，供应压力仍较大，且南方天气不利鸡蛋存 储，节后进入梅雨季节，渠道采购心态偏谨慎，需求承接或相对有限，整体 端午节日有利好，但高供应叠加天气，蛋价走势承压。中期来看，25 年 2- 4 月补栏量依旧较高，对应 25 年 6-8 月新开产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前 期利润积累，抗风险能力增强，产能出清或需要时间，整体高补苗量下，远 期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。长期来看，经过上半年养殖利润 不佳传导，养殖端补苗积极性有所下滑，四季度新开产或环比减少，关注三 季度换羽淘汰及鸡病情况。短期端午节提振，蛋价存支撑，不过供应较为充 足叠加需求转弱，蛋价走势承压，三季度供需双增，区间操作为主，四季度 供应压力或有所缓解，关注近端淘汰及鸡病情况。策略建议：07 进入 6 月 后限仓，谨慎追空，关注 3020-3060 压力表现；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待， 饲料养殖 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall short - term trend of the feed and aquaculture industry is volatile, with different products having their own supply - demand situations and price trends. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand patterns of various products will change, affecting price trends. Strategies for different products are also proposed based on these analyses [1][2][4][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Pig - **Price**: On May 27, the spot price in Liaoning was 13.9 - 14.6 yuan/kg (up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day), in Henan 14.2 - 14.8 yuan/kg (up 0.1 yuan/kg), in Sichuan 14.1 - 14.4 yuan/kg (up 0.1 yuan/kg), and in Guangdong 15 - 15.6 yuan/kg (stable). The national pig price was stable with a slight upward trend in the morning [1]. - **Short - term**: The supply pressure is gradually released as the slaughter weight has declined. The market's price - supporting sentiment has increased, and there is still low - level secondary fattening. The demand for the Dragon Boat Festival is increasing, but it is the off - season for pork consumption, and the demand increase is limited. The short - term supply and demand are in a game, and the pig price has support at the low level but with intensified fluctuations [1]. - **Medium - to - long term**: From May to November 2024, the inventory of fertile sows increased slowly, and the production performance improved. From May to September 2024, the supply showed an increasing trend. From November 2024 to February 2025, the number of piglets increased year - on - year, and the slaughter pressure in the second quarter was still high. The pig price is still at risk of falling under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. From December 2024, the pig production capacity has been reduced, but the reduction range is limited, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still high [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures price has already reflected the weak expectation in advance, with support at the bottom. But the price is still under pressure due to increased and postponed supply. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. For the 07 contract, the pressure level is 13700 - 13800, and the support level is 13000 - 13100; for the 09 contract, the pressure level is 14000 - 14200, and the support level is 13300 - 13400. Short positions can be opened when the price rebounds to the pressure level [1]. 2. Eggs - **Price**: On May 27, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.9 yuan/jin (up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day), and in Beijing 3.2 yuan/jin (up 0.11 yuan/jin) [2]. - **Short - term**: As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, the terminal consumption is expected to increase, and the procurement demand from channels and downstream may increase. The acceleration of culling has relieved the supply pressure, which is expected to support the egg price. However, the supply pressure is still large due to the large number of newly - opened chickens in May, and the unfavorable weather in the south for egg storage and the approaching rainy season after the festival make the channel procurement cautious, so the demand is relatively limited. The egg price is under pressure despite the festival's positive impact [2]. - **Medium - term**: The high number of chicks replenished from February to April 2025 corresponds to a large number of newly - opened laying hens from June to August 2025. The production capacity clearance may take time, and the long - term supply increase trend is difficult to reverse [2]. - **Long - term**: After the poor breeding profits in the first half of the year, the enthusiasm for chick replenishment has declined, and the number of newly - opened chickens in the fourth quarter may decrease month - on - month [2]. - **Strategy**: The egg price has support during the Dragon Boat Festival, but is under pressure due to sufficient supply and weakening demand. In the third quarter, both supply and demand increase, and interval operations are recommended. In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure may be relieved. For the 07 contract, be cautious about short - selling after entering June, and pay attention to the performance at the 3020 - 3060 pressure level; for the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish view in general and wait for the price to rebound to open short positions. For the 08 contract, pay attention to the 3750 - 3800 pressure level. For the 10 contract, look for long - position opportunities at low prices [2][4]. 3. Oils - **Price**: On May 26, the US soybean oil main contract had no quotation due to a public holiday. The Malaysian palm oil main 8 - month contract rose 0.05% to 3829 ringgit/ton. The national palm oil price dropped 60 - 360 yuan/ton to 8400 - 8650 yuan/ton, soybean oil price dropped 70 - 100 yuan/ton to 7900 - 8100 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil price dropped 10 yuan/ton to 9350 - 9780 yuan/ton [4]. - **Palm oil**: The MPOB April report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory increased to 1.87 million tons, which was bearish. From May 1 - 25, the export data improved slightly, with a 7.34 - 11.63% month - on - month increase. The production growth continued to slow down, with only a 0.73% month - on - month increase from May 1 - 25. The inventory accumulation in May may be lower than expected. However, the origin is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage until October, and the inventory is expected to continue to rise, putting pressure on the price. The export tax policies of the main producing countries in June are different: Indonesia raised the export tax, while Malaysia lowered it. The short - term Malaysian palm oil is expected to fluctuate, with the 08 contract operating in the 3800 - 4000 range. In China, the palm oil arrivals in May - June are expected to be more than 200,000 tons each month, but the domestic inventory recovery is slow, still at a low level of 338,700 tons as of the week of May 23 [4]. - **Soybean oil**: The EPA denied the biofuel blending exemption for small refineries, and the biodiesel policy has changed again. The excessive rainfall in Argentina and the possible delay of sowing in the US Midwest support the US soybean price. However, the 2026 biofuel blending volume announced by the EPA may be lower than expected, and the 45z Act is yet to be passed by the Senate, so the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy remains, and the pressure of the old - crop South American soybeans limits the rise of the US soybean price. The US soybean 07 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 1050 - 1080 range in the short term. In China, the domestic soybean arrivals from May to July are expected to reach an average of 10 million tons per month, and the soybean oil inventory has stopped falling and started to rise to 697,200 tons. The domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to continue to increase due to the large arrivals and rising mill operating rates [4]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The Canadian rapeseed inventory for the 2024/2025 season continues to decline due to strong crushing and export demand. The sowing of new - crop rapeseed in Canada is accelerating, but the high - temperature and dry weather in the prairie region has raised drought concerns. The US House of Representatives passed the revised 45Z Act, which is beneficial to the biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. The ICE rapeseed is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a historically high level of 870,000 tons, but the arrivals of Canadian rapeseed in the second quarter are expected to be halved year - on - year. If the supply tightening expectation remains unchanged, the rapeseed oil inventory is expected to gradually decrease [4][5]. - **Strategy**: The short - term trend of oils is expected to be volatile. The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are expected to operate in the 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 ranges respectively. Short positions can be opened cautiously when the price rises. The strategy of widening the spread between the 09 contracts of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils can be long - term concerned [6]. 4. Soybean Meal - **Price**: On May 26, the US soybeans were closed due to a public holiday. The soybean meal was relatively strong under the low oil - meal ratio, but the rebound space was limited by the loose spot market expectation. The M2509 contract closed at 2950 yuan/ton, with narrow - range fluctuations. The spot price in East China was 2860 yuan/ton, and the basis was 09 - 90 yuan/ton [6]. - **Short - term**: The US soybean sowing progress is smooth, and the high - yield South American soybeans suppress the US soybean price. However, the low carry - over inventory of US soybeans provides strong support at the bottom. The US soybeans are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In China, the soybean arrivals are increasing, and the soybeans are entering the inventory accumulation cycle. The mill operating rate has increased significantly, and the spot price is expected to weaken with the loosening of supply and demand. The 09 contract was previously suppressed by the spot market but has obvious bottom support and is expected to return to its fundamental situation and rise in price. Attention should be paid to the US soybean planting weather [6]. - **Long - term**: Although the tariff on imported US soybeans has been significantly reduced, the import cost has still increased, which has reduced the arrivals of US soybeans during the supply season. China has shifted more positions to South America, driving up the forward price in South America. The US soybean is in the sowing stage, and the weather disturbances are increasing. The increase in domestic import cost and the tightening of supply and demand will drive the domestic soybean meal price to rise [6]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract is expected to operate in the [2860, 3000] range in the short term. After mid - June, long positions can be opened when the price pulls back [6]. 5. Corn - **Price**: On May 26, the purchase price of new corn in Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2320 yuan/ton. The purchase price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2468 yuan/ton, both stable compared to the previous day [7]. - **Short - term**: As the corn price rises to a high level, the willingness of traders to sell has increased, and the market supply has increased, which has slowed down the price increase. However, the farmers' grain sales are basically over, and the grain has been transferred to the trading end. The market is still bullish, and the traders are firm in their asking prices. The inventory in the north - south ports is gradually decreasing, which supports the price. The short - term price has support due to the reduction of grassroots grain sources [7]. - **Long - term**: The 2024/2025 crop year in Northeast and North China may see a reduction in production, and the imported materials have decreased significantly year - on - year. The domestic supply - demand is tightening marginally, which drives the corn price up. However, the policy release and the listing of new - season wheat and other substitutes will further supplement the supply, limiting the upward space of the price. Attention should be paid to the wheat production situation and the mainstream price trend [7]. - **Strategy**: The 07 contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level (2300 - 2360), and long positions can be opened at the lower end of the range. Attention can be paid to the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the trading end's grain sales rhythm, policy release, and substitute situations [7][8]. 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day [9].

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Haid Group Co., Ltd. has approved a proposal to engage in hedging activities in 2025, allowing for a maximum margin of 3 billion yuan for trading relevant futures and options contracts [2] Group 1: Company Overview - Haid Group was established in 1998 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in November 2009, primarily engaged in feed production and sales, with a focus on commodities like corn, soybean meal, and live pigs [3] - The company has rapidly expanded its business scale, with feed production reaching nearly 1 million tons by 2006, highlighting the increasing impact of feed costs on profitability [3][4] - In 2024, despite intensified industry competition, Haid Group's feed sales are projected to be approximately 26.52 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 9%, further solidifying its market leadership [4] Group 2: Risk Management and Hedging Strategy - The company has recognized the necessity of using futures tools to mitigate risks associated with price volatility in raw materials, which can fluctuate by over 10% annually [3][5] - Haid Group employs a centralized procurement model for major raw materials, which, combined with hedging operations, enhances procurement advantages and risk control [3][6] - The company has established a unified internal management system that integrates futures and spot business, ensuring that hedging positions do not exceed the scale of actual needs [6] Group 3: Futures Market Engagement - Haid Group began exploring the futures market in 2004 and has since built a dedicated hedging team, leading to significant operational success [4][9] - The company has increasingly utilized basis trading as a risk management strategy, with the proportion of trading completed through this method rising annually since 2013 [8] - The company has effectively managed price risks, with minimal losses from corn market fluctuations due to its disciplined approach to futures trading [8] Group 4: Operational Examples and Impact - In August 2023, Haid Group's trading team executed a sell hedging operation on the C2401 contract, which provided over 100 yuan per ton in price protection against fluctuations in the procurement costs of imported grains [7] - The company has implemented a centralized management system for futures trading accounts, ensuring that all trading activities are overseen by the group's vice president of futures business [9][10] - Haid Group emphasizes the importance of establishing a professional research team to support its hedging activities with fundamental data [10]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The overall situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products showing various trends. Pig prices are under pressure in the short - and long - term due to supply - demand imbalances. Egg prices are also under pressure because of high supply. The oil market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and may decline in the second quarter before rebounding in the third quarter. The short - term trend of soybean meal is expected to be low - level volatile, while the medium - and long - term trend is expected to be stable and upward. Corn prices are expected to be stable and upward in the long - term but with limited upside space [1][2][7][8]. Summary by Category Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 22, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg (stable), in Henan 14.4 - 15 yuan/kg (down 0.1 yuan/kg), in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg (stable), and in Guangdong 15 - 15.5 yuan/kg (stable) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, the supply pressure is accumulating. Although the short - term supply pressure is released, the long - term supply is expected to increase from May to September 2024. The demand is weak, and the supply - demand game intensifies [1]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the pig price fluctuates frequently. In the long - term, there is a risk of price decline. The forward price is under pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy at the resistance level. The resistance and support levels for the 07 contract are 13700 - 13800 and 13000 - 13100 respectively, and for the 09 contract are 14000 - 14200 and 13300 - 13400 respectively. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contract when the price rebounds [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 22, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.9 yuan/jin (down 0.2 yuan/jin), and in Beijing 3.3 yuan/jin (stable) [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term demand may increase, but supply is continuously accumulating. The high supply situation is not alleviated [2]. - **Price Trend**: The short - term price is under pressure. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for the 06 contract. Adopt a short - selling strategy for the 08 and 09 contracts when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the resistance level of 3750 - 3800 for the 08 contract [2]. Oil Palm Oil - **International Market**: On May 21, the Malaysian palm oil 08 contract closed at 3896 ringgit/ton (down 0.36%). The supply and demand are both weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and the 08 contract is expected to trade in the range of 3800 - 4000 [2][3][4]. - **Domestic Market**: From May, a large amount of palm oil will arrive in China. The inventory has increased to 35.97 tons and is expected to continue to accumulate slowly [4]. Soybean Oil - **International Market**: The US biodiesel policy is negative for soybean oil. The short - term trend of US soybeans is expected to be volatile, and the 07 contract is expected to trade in the range of 1040 - 1050 [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The soybean arrival volume from May to July is expected to reach about 1 million tons per month. The soybean oil inventory has started to increase to 65.63 tons, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [5]. Rapeseed Oil - **International Market**: The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed are tightening. The short - term trend of ICE rapeseed is expected to be volatile and upward [6]. - **Domestic Market**: The rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level of 87 tons. The supply pressure is high in the short - term. If the supply tightens, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease [6]. - **Overall Strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be volatile in the short - term, trading in the ranges of 7700 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. Adopt a short - selling strategy with caution at high prices. Pay long - term attention to the strategy of expanding the price difference between soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil for the 09 contracts [7]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the US soybean 07 contract closed at 1062.75 cents/bushel (up 9.75 cents). The domestic M2509 contract closed at 2934 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 2890 yuan/ton [7]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the US soybean price is expected to be volatile, and the domestic spot price is expected to be weak. The 09 contract is expected to be strong. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price is expected to be strong [7][8]. - **Strategy**: Do not chase long positions for the 09 contract in the short - term. Adopt a long - buying strategy on dips after mid - June [8]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), and the purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2468 yuan/ton (stable) [8]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the price is supported. In the long - term, the price has an upward drive, but the upside space is limited [8]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - buying strategy at the lower edge of the range for the 07 contract. Pay attention to the positive spread strategy between the 7 - 9 contracts [8]. Today's Futures Market Overview | Variety | Previous Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Two Days Ago Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active (Cents/Bushel) | 1,061.75 | 1,054.25 | 7.50 | | Soybean Meal Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 2,934 | 2,889 | 45.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal (Yuan/Ton) | 2,880 | 2,880 | 0.00 | | CBOT Corn Active (Cents/Bushel) | 460.00 | 454.50 | 5.50 | | Corn Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 2,324 | 2,312 | 12.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 2,310 | 2,310 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active (Cents/Pound) | 49.75 | 49.57 | 0.18 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil (Yuan/Ton) | 8,140 | 8,230 | - 90.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active (Ringgit/Ton) | 3,896 | 3,910 | - 14.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 8,600 | 8,650 | - 50.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active (Canadian Dollar/Ton) | 719.60 | 704.40 | 15.20 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 9,450 | 9,400 | 50.00 | | Egg Main Contract (Yuan/500 Kilograms) | 2,959 | 2,964 | - 5.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot (Yuan/Jin) | 3.00 | 3.05 | - 0.05 | | Pig Futures Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 13,650 | 13,690 | - 40.00 | | Henan Pig Spot (Yuan/Kilogram) | 14.60 | 14.60 | 0.00 | [9]