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天马科技股价涨9.97%,国泰基金旗下1只基金位居十大流通股东,持有769.38万股浮盈赚取1107.9万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-17 01:55
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Tianma Technology's stock has seen a significant increase of 9.97%, reaching a price of 15.88 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 7.998 billion CNY [1] - Tianma Technology, established on December 13, 2005, and listed on January 17, 2017, is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of special aquatic feed [1] - The company's revenue composition includes: 52.67% from livestock and poultry feed sales, 22.77% from special aquatic feed sales, 20.46% from breeding sales, 13.68% from food sales, 5.27% from raw material sales, and 0.42% from other sales [1] Group 2 - Among Tianma Technology's top ten circulating shareholders, Guotai Fund's ETF has increased its holdings by 2.6889 million shares, now holding a total of 7.6938 million shares, which accounts for 1.53% of the circulating shares [2] - The Guotai Zhongzheng Livestock Breeding ETF (159865) has a current scale of 6.097 billion CNY and has achieved a year-to-date return of 16.52% [2] - The fund manager, Liang Xing, has a tenure of 9 years and 165 days, with the fund's total asset size at 30.617 billion CNY and a best return of 1112.34% during the tenure [3]
饲料养殖周度报告-20251107
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 13:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the easing of Sino-US trade relations, the market's optimistic sentiment towards demand weakened this week, leading to a decline in US soybeans from their high levels. Supported by import costs, soybean meal showed relative strength. Driven by Sino-Canadian trade sentiment, rapeseed meal rose strongly [33]. - In the short term, the weakening demand expectation caused US soybeans to fall from their high levels. There is still supply pressure in the domestic market, and the upward momentum of soybean meal is waning. The rapeseed meal supply is in a tight balance, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and the development of Sino-Canadian relations [33]. - In the long - term, changes in trade relations remain the key driver for the supply of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal [34]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends of Feed and Livestock Futures and Spot Goods - The closing prices of the main futures contracts of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, and eggs increased this week, with week - on - week increases of 2.47%, 6.16%, 2.04%, and 2.22% respectively. The closing price of the main futures contract of live pigs increased by 0.51%. The spot prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and corn increased, with week - on - week increases of 1.34%, 4.76%, and 1.17% respectively. The spot price of live pigs decreased by 4.40%, and the spot price of eggs increased by 0.34% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost - end - The weather in the Midwestern United States is conducive to the remaining harvest work. The US Department of Agriculture will release crop production reports and global agricultural supply - demand forecasts on November 14. Brokerage firm StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record 178.9 million tons. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects Argentina to harvest 48.5 million tons of soybeans this year, and farmers have sown 4.4% of the expected 17.6 million hectares [6]. 3.2.2 Supply - China's soybean imports in October reached a new high for the month at 9.482 million tons, but decreased by 26.3% compared to September. The cumulative imports from January to October were 95.682 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% [6]. 3.2.3 Demand - As of the end of the 44th week (November 1), the average operating rate of domestic oil mills was 61.59%, a decrease of 4.83% from the previous week. The total soybean crushing volume of national oil mills was 2.311 million tons, a decrease of 0.1813 million tons from the previous week. The expected soybean processing volume for this week is slightly reduced to 2.2019 million tons, and the operating rate is 58.69%. On November 6, the trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was light, with a sharp drop of 78% to 38,600 tons [6]. 3.2.4 Inventory - In the 44th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of domestic main oil mills was 7.1079 million tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.39%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.6005 million tons, an increase of 29.06%. The soybean meal inventory was 1.153 million tons, an increase of 98,400 tons from the previous week, an increase of 9.33%, and a year - on - year increase of 168,900 tons, an increase of 17.16% [6]. 3.3 Supply - end Analysis 3.3.1 Import - As of November 6, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans for import was $500 per ton, an increase of $7 per ton from the previous week. The CNF price of US West soybeans for import was $506 per ton, an increase of $15 per ton from the previous week [10]. 3.3.2 Pressing - As of the week of November 6, the soybean crushing profit was -$79.25 per ton, an increase of $43.05 per ton from the previous week. As of the week of October 31, the weekly soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.1161 million tons, a decrease of 269,500 tons from the previous week. As of October 31, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 54%, a decrease of 7 percentage points from the previous week [15]. 3.4 Inventory - end Analysis - As of November 7, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 7.8265 million tons, a decrease of 575,700 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory is at a relatively high level in the past five years. As of October 31, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0593 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean meal inventory of domestic mainstream oil mills is at a relatively high level in the past five years [21]. 3.5 Demand - end Analysis - As of October 31, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 85,700 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a medium level in the past five years [25]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Analysis 3.6.1 Supply - end - The core contradiction in the rapeseed meal market is the tight supply. The Sino - Canadian trade relationship has not eased, resulting in a continuous interruption of Canadian rapeseed imports. Domestic oil mills have shut down, and inventories are almost zero, with the supply in a tight balance. Although the procurement of Australian rapeseed has restarted, the actual supply will not be available until the first quarter of next year, unable to make up for the shortfall in the fourth quarter of this year [33]. 3.6.2 Demand and Inventory - end - The demand side is weak due to the off - season of aquaculture and the substitution advantage of soybean meal, which restricts the upward space of prices [33]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - In the short term, the upward momentum of soybean meal is waning, and attention should be paid to the inventory changes and the development of Sino - Canadian relations for rapeseed meal. In the long - term, changes in trade relations are the key drivers for the supply of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal [33][34]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - The focus is on the weather in production areas, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [35]
饲料养殖周度报告-20251024
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 13:11
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the "weak reality" of the market remains unchanged with many uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the soybean meal rebound. The market trading sentiment has cooled, and during the off - season of aquaculture, the continuous upward momentum of rapeseed meal is limited [36]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the global soybean supply is abundant, and the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex is limited [37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Main Feed and Livestock Futures and Spot Price Trends - The closing price of the main soybean meal futures contract M2601 was 2938 on October 23, 2025, up 1.07% from the previous week. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 2940, up 0.68% [4]. - The closing price of the main rapeseed meal futures contract RM601 was 2339 on October 23, 2025, down 1.06% from the previous week. The average rapeseed meal price in China was 2460, down 1.60% [4]. - The closing price of the main corn futures contract C2601 was 2140 on October 23, 2025, up 1.37% from the previous week. The aggregated price of second - grade national standard corn with 14.5% moisture in Bayuquan Port was 2180, up 1.40% [4]. - The closing price of the main live hog futures contract LH2601 was 12200 on October 23, 2025, up 2.48% from the previous week. The average selling price of commercial hogs in Henan was 11.87, up 5.89% [4]. - The closing price of the main egg futures contract JD2511 was 3027 on October 23, 2025, up 7.42% from the previous week. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 2.86, down 2.39% [4]. Fundamental Analysis Cost Side - The La Nina phenomenon may last until February next year, and the key growing season of South American soybeans may face drought threats with a production reduction expectation [10]. - As of the week of October 16, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1474354 tons. The total U.S. soybean export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season so far reached 5537802 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30.9% [10]. - As of last Thursday, the planting rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 24%, higher than the previous week and the same period in 2024. Brazil's Conab predicted a soybean harvest of nearly 1.78 billion tons this season, a 3.6% increase from the previous year [10]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 51.1 million tons, and the soybean planting area for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decline from the previous year [10]. Supply - In September 2025, China's soybean import volume was 12.869 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2% [10]. Demand - The domestic spot market supply remains in a loose pattern, and the oil mill operation rate has recovered to over 60% [10]. - On October 23, the total soybean meal trading volume was 148,600 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous day [10]. Inventory - In the 42nd week of 2025, the soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil mills was 976,200 tons, a decrease of 102,900 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 9.54% [10]. Supply Side - Import - As of October 24, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans was 487.00 US dollars per ton, an increase of 6 US dollars per ton from the previous week. The CNF price of U.S. West Coast soybeans was 454.00 US dollars per ton, an increase of 10 US dollars per ton from the previous week [17]. Supply Side - Pressing - As of the week of October 23, the soybean pressing profit was - 144.20 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20.65 yuan per ton from the previous week [23]. - As of the week of October 17, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2988 million tons, an increase of 62,300 tons from the previous week [23]. - As of October 17, the operation rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 58%, a recovery of 1 percentage point from the previous week [23]. Inventory Side - As of October 24, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.1127 million tons, an increase of 924,800 tons from the previous week [30]. - As of October 17, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 963,100 tons, a decrease of 83,600 tons from the previous week [30]. Demand Side - As of October 17, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 122,300 tons, an increase of 81,800 tons from the previous week [34].
饲料养殖周度报告-20251017
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 12:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, with sufficient arrival of imported soybeans and abundant inventories of soybeans and soybean meal, the weak pattern of soybean meal is hard to change, and attention should be paid to the evolution of the trade side. As aquaculture enters the off - season, downstream purchasing and sales are weak, and it will run weakly in the short - term [31]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the global soybean supply is loose, and the continuous upward momentum of the soybean series is limited [32]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Aquaculture Futures and Spot Price Trends - Futures: The closing price of the M2601 soybean meal futures contract on October 16, 2025, was 2907 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decrease of 1.09%. The RM601 rapeseed meal futures contract was 2364 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.92%. The C2601 corn futures contract was 2111 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26%. The LH2601 live pig futures contract was 11905 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.67%. The JD2511 egg futures contract was 2818 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85% [4]. - Spot: The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong on October 16, 2025, was 2920 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decrease of 0.34%. The rapeseed meal price in China was 2500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.96%. The price of second - class national standard corn with 14.5% moisture in Bayuquan Port was 2150 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38%. The average出栏 price of commercial pigs in Henan was 11.21 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09%. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 2.93 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.35% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Information - Cost - side: In the US Midwest, most areas had good weather this week, which was conducive to harvesting. US soybean crushing data was strong. In September, the US soybean crushing volume reached 197.863 million bushels, a 4.2% increase from August and an 11.6% increase from September 2024. Brazil planned to export 2.153936 million tons of soybeans, 672,337 tons of soybean meal, and 1.8898 million tons of corn in the week of October 12 - 18. Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production was expected to be 51.1 million tons, and the 2025/26 soybean planting area was expected to be 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decrease from the previous year [8]. - Supply - side: In September 2025, China's soybean imports were 12.869 million tons, a 4.8% month - on - month increase and a 13.2% year - on - year increase [8]. - Demand - side: The domestic soybean crushing volume remained at a high level overall and entered a seasonal downward phase in October. As of the week of October 10, the domestic major oil mills' soybean crushing volume was 1.29 million tons [8]. - Inventory: In the 41st week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts increased [8]. 3.3 Supply - side - Import - As of October 16, the CNF price of imported Brazilian soybeans was 481.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The CNF price of imported soybeans from the US West was 444.00 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8 US dollars/ton from the previous week [16]. 3.4 Supply - side - Pressing - As of the week of October 16, the soybean crushing profit was - 123.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.20 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of October 10, the weekly soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2365 million tons, a decrease of 1.0255 million tons from the previous week. As of October 10, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 57%, a recovery of 36 percentage points from the previous week [22]. 3.5 Inventory - side - As of October 17, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 7.1882 million tons, an increase of 0.6085 million tons from the previous week, and it was at a medium level in the past five years. As of October 10, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0467 million tons, a decrease of 0.1061 million tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively high level in the past five years [24]. 3.6 Demand - side - As of September 5, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 40,500 tons, a decrease of 130,600 tons from the previous week, and it was at a low level in the past five years [29]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - The strong US soybean crushing data overshadowed export concerns, and CBOT soybeans rebounded from the low level. Under the pressure of supply, domestic double - meal continued to decline. The US government's continuous shutdown led to a lack of export sales and supply - demand data, and the market sentiment remained cautious. After the festival, domestic oil mills resumed operation quickly, but the downstream replenishment enthusiasm was poor, resulting in slow inventory reduction of soybean meal. The market is closely watching whether the policy of imposing special port fees on US ships will affect soybean ships. The rapeseed meal market shows a pattern of both supply and demand being weak. The low operating rate of oil mills leads to a tight overall supply of rapeseed meal in the spot market. As the temperature gradually drops, aquaculture enters the off - season, and the overall market trading is light, with mainly rigid demand procurement [31].
饲料养殖周度报告-20250912
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 12:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the price of US soybeans and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans support from the import cost side, so soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term; the oil mill's operating rate remains low, and the demand - side support is limited, so it should be treated with a fluctuating mindset [37]. - In the long - term, the global soybean supply is loose, and the continuous upward momentum of the soybean sector is limited [38]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Aquaculture Futures and Spot Prices | Variety | Futures Main Contract Closing Price (Sep 11, 2025) | Futures Main Contract Closing Price (Sep 3, 2025) | Futures Weekly Change | Futures Weekly Increase/Decrease (%) | Spot Price (Sep 11, 2025) | Spot Price (Sep 3, 2025) | Spot Weekly Change | Spot Weekly Increase/Decrease (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal | 3088 | 3066 | 22 | 0.72 | 2990 | 2990 | 0 | 0 | | Rapeseed Meal | 2567 | 2521 | 46 | 1.82 | 2620 | 2580 | 40 | 1.55 | | Corn | 2202 | 2193 | 9 | 0.41 | 2320 | 2310 | 10 | 0.43 | | Live Pigs | 13320 | 13550 | - 230 | - 1.70 | 13.5 | 13.96 | - 0.46 | - 3.30 | | Eggs | 3044 | 3011 | 33 | 1.10 | 3.53 | 3.19 | 0.34 | 10.66 | [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost - end**: The temperature in the Midwest of the US will be higher than normal from the weekend to early next week, and rainfall will also increase. The dry weather in the southern and eastern regions continues to have an adverse impact on corn and soybean crops. As of the week of September 7, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybean crops was 64%, down 1 percentage point from the previous week, slightly lower than 65% in the same period in 2024 but higher than the five - year average of 59%. Brazilian soybean exports in September 2025 are estimated to be 7430000 tons, 44% higher than in September 2024. The estimated soybean output in Argentina's 2025/2026 season is 47000000 tons [9]. - **Supply**: From January to August 2025, China's total soybean imports reached 7331200 tons, a 4.0% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [9]. - **Demand**: Since September, as the temperature drops, the operating rate of the terminal aquaculture industry has gradually recovered, the rigid demand for soybean meal has recovered, and the market's enthusiasm for purchasing soybean meal has increased [9]. - **Inventory**: The current national oil mill's soybean meal inventory pressure is significant, and the phenomenon of oil mills urging提货 is common. As of the end of the 36th week of 2025, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 116000 tons, an increase of 9700 tons from the previous week, a 9.09% increase [9]. 3.3 Supply - side Analysis - **Import**: As of September 11, the CNF Brazilian soybean import price was 485.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton from the previous week; the CNF US West soybean import price was 442.00 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous week [14]. - **Pressing**: As of the week of September 11, the soybean pressing profit was 86.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110.00 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of September 05, the domestic oil mill's weekly soybean pressing volume was 2354800 tons, a decrease of 42700 tons from the previous week. As of September 05, the domestic soybean oil mill's operating rate was 60%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous week [19][21]. 3.4 Inventory - side Analysis - As of September 12, the imported soybean port inventory was 6635600 tons, a decrease of 142900 tons from the previous week, and it was at a low level in the past 5 years. As of September 5, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 1063900 tons, an increase of 49000 tons from the previous week, and it was at a moderately high level in the past 5 years [26]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - As of September 05, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 92200 tons, a decrease of 39300 tons from the previous week, and it was at a medium level in the past 5 years [28]. 3.6 Pig - side Supply and Demand No specific content provided in the summary scope. 3.7 Pig - side Slaughter and Breeding Profits No specific content provided in the summary scope. 3.8 Strategy Recommendation - Before the release of the USDA supply - demand report this Friday, US soybeans will fluctuate, and domestic double - meal will also maintain a fluctuating trend. The demand from China, the largest importer of US soybeans, is weak, and the market generally expects the US soybean yield forecast to be lowered. In the domestic spot market, the trading sentiment in the soybean meal spot market has recovered, and the oil mill's spot transactions have increased slightly, but traders are still in a slight loss [37]. - For rapeseed meal, currently affected by the decrease in Canadian rapeseed imports, the oil mill's operating level is low. Spot transactions are average, the demand side has not yet recovered, the substitution effect of soybean meal still exists, the aquaculture industry's prosperity is low, and downstream procurement is cautious [37]. 3.9 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning The focus is on the producing area's weather, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [39].
饲料养殖周度报告-20250829
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 12:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, trade soybean and rapeseed meal on a short - term basis. With US soybean facing pressure from high - yield expectations and domestic supply remaining loose, focus on the outcome of Sino - US negotiations for soybean meal. For rapeseed meal, although port and coastal oil mill inventories are decreasing, weak terminal demand exists, so pay attention to trade flow changes [45]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the global soybean supply is loose, limiting the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex [46]. 3. Summary by Directory Domestic Main Feed and Livestock Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Soybean Meal**: The futures主力合约 (M2601) closed at 3039 on August 28, 2025, down 121 from August 20, a 3.83% drop. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 2980, down 40 from August 20, a 1.32% drop [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The futures主力合约 (RM601) closed at 2483 on August 28, 2025, down 144 from August 20, a 5.48% drop. The average spot price of rapeseed meal in China was 2540, down 80 from August 20, a 3.05% drop [4]. - **Corn**: The futures主力合约 (C2511) closed at 2185 on August 28, 2025, up 15 from August 20, a 0.69% increase. The spot price of second - grade national standard corn with 14.5% moisture at Bayuquan Port was 2310, unchanged from August 20 [4]. - **Pig**: The futures主力合约 (LH2511) closed at 13590 on August 28, 2025, down 185 from August 20, a 1.34% drop. The spot price of commercial pigs in Henan was 13.64, down 0.05 from August 20, a 0.37% drop [4]. - **Egg**: The futures主力合约 (JD2510) closed at 2930 on August 28, 2025, down 142 from August 20, a 4.62% drop. The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 3.22, down 0.02 from August 20, a 0.62% drop [4]. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side** - **Weather**: In August, the weather in the core production areas such as the US plains and the Midwest was favorable, and the overall good - quality rate of soybeans remained high. The latest US crop growth report showed that the good - quality rate of US soybeans rose from 68% the previous week to 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. September is gradually entering the early harvest stage, and the weather trading window is narrowing [11]. - **US Soybeans**: Entering the early harvest stage in September, focus on US soybean export demand [11]. - **Brazil**: On August 27, the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in August 2025 would be 8.9 million tons, slightly lower than the previous week's estimate of 8.94 million tons. If the forecast comes true, it will be an 11.5% increase from 7.98 million tons in August 2024 but lower than the export volume of 12.02 million tons in July this year [11]. - **Argentina**: On August 28, the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture said that the pace of soybean sales in Argentina slowed down last week. As of August 20, Argentine farmers had pre - sold 29.9 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/25 season, 390,000 tons higher than a week ago, compared with 26.14 million tons in the same period in 2024. Last week, the sales volume was 820,000 tons [11]. - **Supply - Import**: In July 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record 16.7 million tons. Imports from Brazil increased significantly, accounting for 89% of the total imports, reaching 10.39 million tons, a 13.9% year - on - year increase. Imports from the US were only 420,000 tons, a 11.5% year - on - year decrease. Imports from Argentina were 560,000 tons in July, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 670,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 104.7% [11]. - **Demand** - **Pressing**: As of the week ending August 22, the actual soybean pressing volume of oil mills was 2.27 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.81%. The soybean inventory was 6.8253 million tons, an increase of 21,300 tons from the previous week, a 0.31% increase, and a year - on - year decrease of 394,000 tons, a 5.46% decrease. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0533 million tons, an increase of 38,600 tons from the previous week, a 3.8% increase, and a year - on - year decrease of 445,300 tons, a 29.71% decrease [11]. - **Transaction**: On August 28, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 126,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from the previous day, and the spot transaction volume was 106,000 tons [11]. - **Inventory** - **Oil Mill Inventory**: As of August 22, the cumulative soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 7.1 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.04 million tons. It is expected that the operating rate of oil mills will pick up next week, the soybean pressing volume will rise to about 2.5 million tons, and the soybean meal output will increase. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills may rise above 1.1 million tons by the end of August [11]. Supply Side - Import - As of August 28, the CNF price of imported Brazilian soybeans was 484.00 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars per ton from the previous week. The CNF price of imported soybeans from the US West was 453.00 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 11 US dollars per ton from the previous week [19]. Supply Side - Pressing - As of the week ending August 28, the soybean pressing profit was 86.60 yuan per ton, a decrease of 110.00 yuan per ton from the previous week. As of the week ending August 22, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.4402 million tons, a decrease of 17,500 tons from the previous week. As of August 22, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 62%, the same as the previous week [24]. Inventory Side - As of August 29, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 6.8546 million tons, a decrease of 30,200 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory is at a low level in the past five years. As of August 22, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 985,500 tons, an increase of 11,500 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean meal inventory of domestic mainstream oil mills is at a medium level in the past five years [27]. Demand Side - As of August 22, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 155,000 tons, a decrease of 70,500 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level in the past five years [33]. Pig Supply and Demand No specific content provided for further summary. Pig Slaughter and Breeding Profit No specific content provided for further summary. Strategy Recommendation - **Short - term**: Trade soybean and rapeseed meal on a short - term basis. For soybean meal, focus on the outcome of Sino - US negotiations; for rapeseed meal, focus on trade flow changes [45]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: The global soybean supply is loose, and the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex is limited [46]. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning Focus on产区 weather, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [47].
8月27日沪深两市涨停分析
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 07:44
Group 1: Company Performance - Nengke Technology reported a net profit growth of 18.75% year-on-year in its mid-year report, focusing on smart manufacturing and developing a comprehensive product system that includes AI applications across various industrial scenarios [2][3] - Jianye Technology achieved a net profit growth of 51.12% year-on-year, supplying high-speed optical modules to Microsoft, with 800G products in small batch delivery [2] - Lianhua Technology, a leader in custom production of pesticide intermediates, reported a staggering net profit growth of 1481.94% year-on-year [2] - Xianggang Technology, a provider of integrated solutions in printing and packaging, saw a net profit increase of 432.14% year-on-year [2] - Dongpeng Holdings, primarily engaged in ceramics and sanitary ware, reported a net profit growth of 3.85% year-on-year, significantly up from the first quarter [2] - Aonong Bio reported a net profit of 361 million, marking a turnaround from losses [2] - Qiming Information, under FAW Group, reported a net profit growth of 2568.5% year-on-year, focusing on digital operations and smart marketing [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The State Council issued an opinion on the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, aiming for over 70% penetration of new intelligent terminals and applications by 2027 [2][4] - The demand for liquid cooling solutions in data centers is increasing, with companies like Huangma Technology focusing on organic silicon modified polyether as a supplier for immersion cooling liquids [4] - The agricultural sector is seeing significant developments, with Aonong Co. reporting a net profit of 361 million, indicating a recovery in the agricultural products market [5] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations - Ge'ern Automotive has entered a strategic partnership with NVIDIA to develop control systems for robots, covering the entire range of NVIDIA's Jetson series [3] - Magmi Technology has formed a partnership with NVIDIA to become a designated supplier of data center components, actively participating in the design and construction of NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture [4]
饲料养殖周度报告-20250822
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 11:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, it is recommended to focus on short - term trading for soybean meal and rapeseed meal. For soybean meal, pay attention to the results of crop inspections as there are rumors that US soybeans may enter China through state reserves. For rapeseed meal, focus on the changes in China - Australia and China - Canada trade flows due to restricted imports of Canadian rapeseed in the future [45]. - In the medium - to long - term, the global soybean supply is abundant, limiting the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex [46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The closing prices of most futures main contracts in the feed and livestock industry decreased last week. For example, the M2601 soybean meal contract closed at 3113 yuan on August 21, down 50 yuan from August 13, a decrease of 1.58%. The RM601 rapeseed meal contract closed at 2561 yuan, down 127 yuan, a decrease of 4.72%. The C2511 corn contract closed at 2166 yuan, down 113 yuan, a decrease of 4.96%. The LH2511 live pig contract closed at 13765 yuan, down 280 yuan, a decrease of 1.99%. The JD2510 egg contract closed at 3010 yuan, down 267 yuan, a decrease of 8.15% [4]. - The spot prices of some varieties remained unchanged, while others decreased. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 3020 yuan, unchanged from the previous week. The average price of rapeseed meal in China was 2580 yuan, down 70 yuan, a decrease of 2.64%. The price of second - grade national standard corn with 14.5% moisture at Bayuquan Port was 2310 yuan, unchanged. The average slaughter price of commercial pigs in Henan was 13.6 yuan, down 0.14 yuan, a decrease of 1.02%. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 3.19 yuan, up 0.12 yuan, an increase of 3.91% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost Side - Weather: From August 24 to 28, the temperature in the main soybean - producing states in the US was lower than normal, and precipitation was mostly close to or higher than the median [10]. - US Soybeans: On the last day of the Pro Farmer crop inspection, inspectors reported that the corn yield potential and soybean pod number in Iowa reached the highest level in at least 22 years. As of August 17, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, in line with market expectations and the previous week, and the same as the same period in 2024 [10]. - Brazil: The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in August 2025 would be 8.8 million tons, higher than the previous week's estimate of 8.15 million tons. If the forecast comes true, it will be a 10.3% increase from 7.98 million tons in August 2024, but lower than the 12 million tons in July this year. The total soybean exports in the first eight months of this year will reach 88.55 million tons [10]. - Argentina: The Argentine Ministry of Agriculture said that the pace of soybean sales in Argentina was basically stable last week. As of August 13, Argentine farmers had pre - sold 29.51 million tons of soybeans for the 2024/25 season, 820,000 tons more than the previous week, compared with 25.64 million tons in the same period in 2024 [10]. 3.2.2 Supply - Import: In July 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record 16.7 million tons. Imports from Brazil increased significantly, accounting for 89% of the total imports, reaching 10.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. Imports from the US were only 420,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%. Imports from Argentina were 560,000 tons in July, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 670,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 104.7% [10]. 3.2.3 Demand - Pressing: As of the end of the 33rd week (August 16), the average operating rate of domestic oil mills was 64.64%, an increase of 2.08% from the previous week. The total soybean pressing volume of national oil mills was 2.4168 million tons, an increase of 77,900 tons from the previous week. The pressing volume of domestic soybeans was 10,500 tons, and that of imported soybeans was 2.4063 million tons [10]. - Transaction: The transaction volume of soybean meal continued to recover, but the transaction price declined slightly. On August 21, the transaction volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 149,950 tons, an increase of 38,450 tons from the previous day. The spot transaction volume was 45,950 tons, a decrease of 19,550 tons from the previous day. The basis transaction volume was 104,000 tons, an increase of 58,000 tons from the previous day. The average transaction price was 3085.35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.22 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Oil Mill Inventory: The National Grain and Oil Information Center predicted on August 20 that the operating rate in August would remain at a high level, with the soybean pressing volume close to 10 million tons and the soybean meal output around 8 million tons, higher than the average of the past three years. The average monthly consumption in August was 7.7 million tons. However, due to the accelerated downstream pick - up speed, the inventory accumulation rhythm of oil mills had slowed down. It was expected that the commercial inventory of soybean meal in major national oil mills would rise to around 1.1 million tons in August, and the inventory pressure on oil mills was relatively high [10]. 3.3 Supply - side Analysis 3.3.1 Import - As of August 21, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans was 488.00 US dollars/ton. The CNF price of US West Coast soybeans was 457.00 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton from the previous week [15][18]. 3.3.2 Pressing - As of the week of August 21, the soybean pressing profit was 190.90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.80 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of August 15, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.4227 million tons, an increase of 63,700 tons from the previous week. As of August 15, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 62%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous week [24]. 3.4 Inventory - side Analysis - As of August 21, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 6.8832 million tons, an increase of 50,500 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory was at a low level in the past five years. As of August 15, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 974,000 tons, an increase of 13,100 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean meal inventory of domestic mainstream oil mills was at a medium level in the past five years [27]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - As of August 8, the average daily transaction volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 84,500 tons, a decrease of 416,200 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it was at a relatively low level in the past five years [30]. 3.6 Pig - side Supply and Demand - Not provided in the content 3.7 Pig - side Slaughter and Breeding Profit - Not provided in the content 3.8 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Focus on short - term trading for soybean meal and rapeseed meal. Pay attention to the results of crop inspections for soybean meal and the changes in China - Australia and China - Canada trade flows for rapeseed meal [45]. - Medium - to long - term: Due to the abundant global soybean supply, the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex is limited [46]. 3.9 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - Focus on the weather in producing areas, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [47].
饲料养殖周度报告-20250815
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 11:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA供需 report was unexpectedly bullish, causing US soybeans to return above 1000 cents. Under the influence of anti - dumping measures on domestic rapeseed, the performance of double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) was differentiated, with rapeseed meal showing more volatility and soybean meal remaining relatively stable due to import cost support [35]. - Currently, the domestic soybean supply is abundant, and oil mills have high soybean meal inventories. Downstream feed enterprises maintain high - inventory rolling, resulting in weak short - term follow - up buying willingness and sluggish soybean meal transactions at oil mills [35]. - In the short term, influenced by the cooling sentiment in the rapeseed sector and news of customs inspections in some areas, short - term trading is recommended for soybean meal; rapeseed meal is more volatile, and short - term trading should be accompanied by risk prevention [36]. - In the long term, the global soybean supply is ample, limiting the sustained upward momentum of the soybean sector [37]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Prices**: As of August 14, the closing price of the main soybean meal futures contract (M2601) was 3157 yuan/ton, up 2.77% from August 6; the main rapeseed meal futures contract (RM509) was 2686 yuan/ton, down 2.15%; the main corn futures contract (C2511) was 2281 yuan/ton, up 0.97%; the main live hog futures contract (LH2511) was 13900 yuan/ton, down 0.79%; the main egg futures contract (JD2510) was 3189 yuan/ton, down 5.60% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On August 14, the spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 3000 yuan/ton, up 3.81% from August 6; the average price of rapeseed meal in China was 2600 yuan/ton, down 2.26%; the aggregated price of second - grade corn with 14.5% moisture in Bayuquan Port was 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average daily slaughter price of commercial hogs in Henan was 13.76 yuan/kg, down 1.43%; the average price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 3.07 yuan/jin, up 5.50% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost - end**: In the next 6 - 10 days, most areas in the main US soybean - producing states will have higher - than - normal temperatures, and half of the areas will have precipitation close to the median. The USDA's August report showed that although the 2025/26 US soybean yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the sown area decreased from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the production decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels, reaching the sixth - highest in history. The USDA lowered the 2025/26 US soybean ending inventory to 290 million bushels, lower than the market expectation of 351 million bushels and the July forecast of 310 million bushels, hitting a three - year low. In July, Brazil's soybean exports reached 12.25 million tons, a record high for the same period. From January to July, Brazil's cumulative exports of oil crops reached 77.2 million tons, the first time to exceed this level in the same period of previous years. As of August 6, Argentine farmers had pre - sold 28.83 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, 870,000 tons more than a week ago [7]. - **Supply - Import**: Affected by Brazil's strong exports and concerns about supply due to Sino - US trade uncertainties, China's soybean imports in July reached a record high for the same period for the third consecutive month. In July, China imported 11.67 million tons of soybeans, a 4.8% decrease from June but still the highest for the same period in history, an 18.5% increase from the same period in 2024. The total soybean imports in the first seven months of this year reached 61.04 million tons, a 4.6% year - on - year increase. The market expects soybean imports in August and September to remain above 10 million tons, with most coming from Brazil. However, China has not booked any US soybean cargoes for the fourth quarter, raising concerns about a potential supply shortage [7]. - **Demand - Pressing and Transaction**: As of the week ending August 8, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1775 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.21%. On August 14, the total soybean meal transaction volume was 73,700 tons, 2900 tons less than the previous day, and the spot transaction volume was 28,700 tons. The weekly average showed that the total soybean meal transaction volume was 511,980 tons, and the spot transaction volume was 70,920 tons. Currently, the domestic soybean supply is abundant, oil mills have high soybean meal inventories, and downstream feed enterprises maintain high - inventory rolling, resulting in weak short - term follow - up buying willingness and sluggish soybean meal transactions at oil mills [7]. - **Inventory**: As of the week ending August 8, the soybean inventory was 7.1056 million tons, an 8.38% increase from the previous week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period in 2024; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0035 million tons, a 3.66% decrease from the previous week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period in 2024 [7]. 3.3 Supply - end - **Import**: As of August 14, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans was 497.00 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars/ton from the previous week; the CNF price of US West Coast soybeans was 454.00 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars/ton from the previous week [11][12]. - **Pressing**: As of the week ending August 14, the soybean crushing profit was 209.40 yuan/ton, up 56.50 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week ending August 8, the domestic oil mill's weekly soybean crushing volume was 2.359 million tons, up 129,500 tons from the previous week. As of August 8, the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate was 60%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous week [15]. 3.4 Inventory - end - As of August 14, the imported soybean port inventory was 6.7355 million tons, a decrease of 108,000 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory is at a near - five - year low. As of August 1, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 960,900 tons, a decrease of 16,700 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the domestic mainstream oil mill's soybean meal inventory is at a near - five - year medium level [18]. 3.5 Demand - end - As of August 8, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal at domestic mainstream oil mills was 500,700 tons, an increase of 222,400 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a near - five - year high level [22]. 3.6 Pig - end No specific content was provided for analysis in the given text. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Due to the cooling sentiment in the rapeseed sector and news of customs inspections in some areas, short - term trading is recommended for soybean meal; rapeseed meal is more volatile, and short - term trading should be accompanied by risk prevention [36]. - Long - term: The global soybean supply is ample, limiting the sustained upward momentum of the soybean sector [37]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning The focus includes the weather in production areas, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [38].
饲料养殖周度报告-20250801
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 11:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the strong Brazilian premium supports the import cost. The soybean meal is waiting for a direction at the 3000 mark. The rapeseed meal has rigid demand support and intensified fluctuations, suitable for short - term trading [46]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the global soybean supply is abundant, and the trade prospects are easing, limiting the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex [47]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The prices of major feed and livestock futures and spot contracts mostly declined in the week from July 23 to July 31, 2025. For example, the M2509 soybean meal futures contract fell from 3095 to 3000, a decrease of 95 or 3%; the RM509 rapeseed meal futures contract dropped from 2758 to 2699, a decrease of 59 or 2% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost - end**: The weather in US soybean - producing areas is favorable, and Chinese demand is weak. The USDA's export sales report shows that US soybean export sales increased in the week ending July 24, 2025. Brazil's expected soybean exports in August decreased to 550 million tons, and Argentina lowered soybean and related product export taxes [10]. - **Supply**: In June 2025, China imported 1226.4 million tons of soybeans, and from January to June 2025, the cumulative import was 4937 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [10]. - **Demand**: On July 30, the crushing profit of imported Brazilian soybeans for October shipment was - 43 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing profit was 45 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous week. On July 31, the total bean - meal sales of major domestic oil mills was 43.60 million tons, with the operating rate of 62.79%, down 0.08% from the previous day [10]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of the 30th week of 2025, the domestic soybean - meal inventory was 107.5 million tons, up 5.5 million tons or 5.34% from the previous week. It is estimated that the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills in July will be about 1000 million tons, remaining at a historical high [10]. 3.3 Supply - end (Import) - As of July 31, the CNF price of imported Brazilian soybeans was 468.00 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from the previous week, and the CNF price of imported US - West soybeans was 447.00 US dollars/ton, down 7 US dollars/ton from the previous week [18]. 3.4 Supply - end (Crushing) - In the week ending July 31, the soybean crushing profit was 85.65 yuan/ton, down 9.75 yuan/ton from the previous week. In the week ending July 25, the weekly soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 226.31 million tons, up 11.55 million tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 58%, up 3 percentage points from the previous week [24]. 3.5 Inventory - end - As of July 31, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 683.92 million tons, up 15.99 million tons from the previous week, at a near - five - year low. As of July 25, the soybean - meal inventory of oil mills was 96.10 million tons, up 5.27 million tons from the previous week, at a near - five - year medium level [28]. 3.6 Demand - end - As of July 25, the average daily sales volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 13.23 million tons, up 1.86 million tons from the previous week, at a near - five - year medium - low level [32]. 3.7 Pig - supply and Demand No detailed content provided. 3.8 Pig - slaughter and Breeding Profit No detailed content provided. 3.9 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The strong Brazilian premium supports the import cost. The soybean meal is at the 3000 mark waiting for a direction. The rapeseed meal has rigid demand support, with intensified fluctuations, suitable for short - term trading [46]. - Medium - to - long - term: The global soybean supply is abundant, and the trade prospects are easing, limiting the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex [47]. 3.10 Next - week Concerns The concerns include the weather in producing areas, trade relations, and the arrival schedule of imported soybeans [48].