Group 1 - The price of paper gold continues to show an upward trend, currently at 767.96 CNY per gram with a daily increase of 0.53% [1] - The fluctuation range has narrowed to 763.29-768.58 CNY per gram, indicating intense competition between bulls and bears at key technical levels [1] - The market's expectation for a July interest rate cut has significantly decreased following Fed Chairman Powell's warning about tariffs potentially raising summer inflation [1] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's tariff policy is a core variable affecting the current market [3] - Fed research indicates that tariff increases may raise price levels through imported inflation, which will directly impact the monetary policy path [3] - The technical analysis shows a typical range-bound pattern, with resistance at 793-803 CNY per gram and support at 739-749 CNY per gram [3]

Group 1 - The central financial committee has issued opinions to support the acceleration of building Shanghai as an international financial center, emphasizing the need to strengthen financial infrastructure services [1] - The opinions highlight the importance of enhancing the cross-border payment and clearing system for the Renminbi [1] - There is a focus on improving the infrastructure of the gold market, including the establishment of an export supervision warehouse for the Shanghai Gold Exchange's international board [1]

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Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank warns that geopolitical pressures could make the gold market a source of financial stability risk in the Eurozone [1] Group 1 - A report by four central bank economists highlights that worsening geopolitical situations could lead to increased demand for physical delivery of gold, dominance of large traders, and opaque trading practices, all of which may pose broader threats to financial stability [1] - The findings will be included in a more comprehensive risk assessment report scheduled for release on Wednesday [1]

Core Insights - The gold market is currently experiencing significant volatility, but long-term supportive factors for gold prices remain intact [1][10] Group 1: Central Bank Activities - Global central banks play a crucial role in the gold market, providing essential support for gold prices. In Q1 2025, global central bank net gold purchases reached 244 tons, with China continuously increasing its gold reserves [3] - Emerging market countries are driven by various factors such as "de-dollarization," optimizing foreign exchange reserves, and enhancing currency credibility, leading to sustained demand for gold [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Although geopolitical tensions have eased, potential risks persist. Issues such as U.S.-China relations, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and India-Pakistan tensions remain uncertain and could escalate [4] - Should geopolitical tensions rise again, market risk aversion will likely increase, making gold a preferred safe-haven asset and driving up its price [4] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy faces concerns of "stagflation," with slowing growth and persistent inflation pressures. Although current inflation data appears moderate, future inflation may rise due to tariff effects and uneven global economic recovery [6] - If inflation increases, real interest rates will decline, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby enhancing its appeal as an inflation hedge [6][7] Group 4: Dollar Trends and Federal Reserve Policy - The relationship between the dollar and gold prices is typically negative. Recently, the dollar index rebounded from 98.35 to 101.97, creating upward pressure on the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [8] - Uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve monetary policy contributes to volatility in the gold market. Divergent statements from Fed officials regarding interest rate hikes and cuts complicate market predictions [8] Group 5: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite recent fluctuations in the gold market, core factors supporting gold price increases, such as central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation uncertainties, remain [10] - Short-term market dynamics, including market sentiment, dollar trends, and Federal Reserve policies, will continue to influence gold prices, leading to high volatility [10]

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. government has shifted its stance on the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with a call for a "comprehensive and permanent ceasefire" instead of accepting Russia's proposal for a three-day ceasefire [1] - The Trump administration has presented a "take it or leave it" framework to Ukraine, demanding recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and Ukraine's abandonment of NATO membership [3] - Ukraine's President Zelensky has firmly rejected these demands, stating that Ukraine will never legally recognize territorial losses [3] Group 2: Energy Security and Sovereignty Crisis - The potential long-term conflict could lead to renewed European dependence on Russian gas, impacting energy security and economic growth in Europe [4] - Zelensky's refusal to compromise may result in reduced U.S. military aid, weakening Ukraine's defense capabilities against Russian forces [4] - Diverging positions between European nations and the U.S. on Crimea could threaten NATO unity and lead to differing approaches on sanctions and trade negotiations with Russia [4] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Increased geopolitical uncertainty is driving short-term demand for gold, with prices rebounding to $3,313 per ounce as of April 30, 2023, amid concerns over the stalled negotiations [5] - The U.S. dollar's credibility is under pressure due to Trump's tariff policies and rising fiscal deficits, leading to a significant increase in global central bank gold purchases [6] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts are rising, which could influence gold prices depending on the Federal Reserve's actions [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Key upcoming events include the U.S. ADP employment data on April 30, which could reinforce rate cut expectations if underwhelming, and Russia's Victory Day parade on May 9, which may escalate the conflict [8] - Trump's potential cessation of support for Ukraine could lead to a reevaluation of European security dynamics, increasing volatility in gold prices [8]