Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is weakening against major currencies, reaching a near three-week low against the US dollar, driven by uncertainties regarding the Bank of Japan's policy path and mixed economic data [1][4]. Currency Performance - The yen is trading at 183.38 against the euro, up from 182.91; 211.39 against the pound, up from 210.83; and 196.89 against the Swiss franc, up from 196.35. It has also declined against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, trading at 105.40 and 90.39 respectively [3]. - The yen fell from 156.88 to 157.44 against the US dollar and from 113.16 to 113.53 against the Canadian dollar. Potential technical support levels are observed at 184.00 for euro/yen, 212.00 for pound/yen, 199.00 for Swiss franc/yen, 106.00 for Australian dollar/yen, 91.00 for New Zealand dollar/yen, 158.00 for dollar/yen, and 115.00 for Canadian dollar/yen [3]. Economic Data Insights - November household average spending in Japan increased by 2.9% year-on-year to 314,242 yen, significantly exceeding the market expectation of a 1.0% decline, with a month-on-month increase of 6.2% against a forecast of 2.7% [3]. - Conversely, the average monthly income decreased by 2.2% year-on-year to 519,304 yen, raising concerns about the sustainability of consumer spending amid rising expenditures [3]. - The Cabinet Office reported that the leading economic index rose to 110.5 in November, the highest since May 2024, indicating potential future economic activity improvement. However, the coincident index slightly declined from 115.9 to 115.2, suggesting short-term economic momentum remains unstable [3][4]. Market Sentiment - Asian stock markets are mostly rising as investors await the US employment report to assess the Federal Reserve's policy direction. There is a prevailing expectation that the Fed may cut interest rates at least twice by 2026, which supports the US dollar and puts pressure on the yen [4]. - The $200 billion mortgage bond purchase program initiated by the US is influencing market liquidity and interest rate expectations, indirectly affecting currency markets [4]. - The core driver of the yen's movement remains the Bank of Japan's policy decisions, with significant market uncertainty regarding potential interest rate adjustments and ongoing concerns about Japan's fiscal health [4].

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 National Foreign Exchange Management Work Conference emphasizes the need for a more convenient, open, secure, and intelligent foreign exchange management system, aiming to promote deep reforms and high-level openness in the foreign exchange sector while ensuring the needs of various entities for foreign exchange are met and external risks are mitigated [1][2] Group 1: Key Focus Areas for Foreign Exchange Management - The conference highlights the importance of strengthening the Party's leadership over financial work and advancing strict governance within the Party [1] - It calls for the optimization of trade foreign exchange business management and the expansion of high-level open pilot programs for cross-border trade [1] - The meeting stresses the need to enhance the vitality of high-quality development through foreign exchange facilitation reforms, including support for new trade formats like cross-border e-commerce [1] Group 2: Institutional Opening and Cooperation - The conference proposes a steady and orderly advancement of bank foreign exchange business reforms, encouraging more banks to initiate reforms and integrate facilitation policies [2] - It emphasizes the implementation of policies for overseas lending and domestic foreign exchange loan fund management, as well as the management of cross-border capital for multinational companies [2] - The meeting supports the integrated reform and innovation of foreign exchange policies in free trade pilot zones, particularly in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Hainan Free Trade Port, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [2] Group 3: Risk Management and Regulatory Measures - The conference underscores the importance of strengthening foreign exchange market analysis and enhancing macro-prudential and expectation management to maintain stable market operations [2] - It calls for the reinforcement of foreign exchange regulation and the improvement of regulatory capabilities and standards [2] - The meeting highlights the need for continuous efforts to combat illegal cross-border financial activities and enhance the supervision of foreign exchange market trading behaviors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is expected to exhibit a volatile upward trend against the US dollar in 2025, supported by a weaker dollar and diverging monetary policies between the UK and the US [1][3]. Group 1: External Environment - The US dollar index is projected to decline significantly in 2025, with an annual drop of approximately 9% [3]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates by a total of 75 basis points during the year, leading to decreased attractiveness of dollar assets and a shift towards non-US currencies, benefiting the pound [3]. - The Bank of England is expected to maintain a cautious approach to monetary easing, with only a 50 basis point rate cut for the year and a stable rate at the end of the year, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation risks [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's policy will remain a key variable influencing the GBP/USD exchange rate in 2026, with market expectations of potential further rate cuts, though inflation risks may limit the extent of easing [3][5]. - The Bank of England's easing expectations are relatively moderate, with some institutions predicting possible rate cuts in 2026, but actual adjustments may be less than initially anticipated due to sticky service sector inflation and economic recovery uncertainties [3]. Group 3: Market Focus and Technical Analysis - In the short term, market attention will be on signals from the US and UK central banks and key economic data [4]. - US manufacturing and consumer confidence indicators will impact perceptions of the Federal Reserve's policy path, while UK inflation trends will influence the Bank of England's future policy [5]. - Technically, the GBP/USD pair has support around 1.3350 and resistance near 1.3480, indicating that the exchange rate will be closely tied to policy expectations and fundamental changes [5].

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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: China Manufacturing Sector - Significant rebound in official manufacturing PMI: The NBS manufacturing PMI rose from 49.2 in November to 50.1 in December, surpassing both consensus and expectations. This rebound contrasts with declining steel production and subdued Emerging Industries PMI, aligning with the typical "quarter-end rebound" pattern observed in 2025, where PMI increased in March, June, September, and December, then declined the following month due to pressure to boost GDP growth at quarter-end [1][4] Consumer Goods - Extension of consumer goods trade-in program: On December 30, the NDRC and MOF released guidelines for the consumer goods trade-in program for 2026. The program initially boosted retail sales in Q4 2024 and H1 2025, but its impact diminished after June due to funding shortages and approval tightening. The new guidelines adjust subsidy categories and levels, with full-year subsidies projected at approximately RMB 250 billion in 2026, slightly less than the RMB 300 billion allocated in 2025 [2] Economic Growth Projections - Expected slowdown in growth: Growth is projected to slow from 3.8% in 2025 to 2.7% in 2026 due to fewer subsidies and their fading impact [5] Currency Dynamics - USD/CNY exchange rate: The USD/CNY broke below 7.0 at the end of 2025, despite PBOC's daily fixings signaling a moderation in the pace of appreciation. The fixing remained at 7.0288 by year-end, above the model-implied value near 7.00. Key drivers include broad USD weakness and year-end FX settlement demand. The PBOC may prefer a stronger CNY while avoiding rapid appreciation. Projections indicate USD/CNY reaching 6.95/6.90/6.85 in 3/6/12 months [5] Retail Sales and Economic Activity - Retail sales and economic activity: Recent data indicates that retail sales fell in November, and manufacturing PMIs and official non-manufacturing PMI increased in December. Industrial profits and revenue edged up sequentially in November, while November activity data broadly missed market expectations [7] Additional Insights - Policymakers unveiled implementation details for the 2026 "dual upgrade" program, indicating a focus on enhancing economic resilience and sustainability [7] - The PBOC adopted a measured easing stance at the Q4 MPC meeting, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic challenges [7] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the manufacturing sector, consumer goods, economic growth projections, currency dynamics, and overall economic activity in China.

Group 1 - The GBP/USD pair has shown a mild increase to around 1.3510 during the early European session, continuing its recent strong trend supported by both fundamental and technical factors, while also considering the impact of market liquidity changes ahead of the holidays [1] - The Bank of England has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% during the December monetary policy meeting, with Governor Andrew Bailey indicating a cautious approach to future rate decisions based on economic data [2] - Market participants are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, with the December meeting minutes expected to provide short-term guidance, while overall trading volume is anticipated to remain light due to the upcoming New Year holidays [2] Group 2 - The daily chart indicates that GBP/USD is currently holding above the 100-day moving average, which is positioned around 1.3335, providing foundational support, while also trading above the 20-day moving average, confirming short-term trend support [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 69.87, nearing the overbought territory, suggesting a need to monitor momentum changes after the recent upward movement [4] - The Bollinger Bands show that the upper resistance is at 1.3550, with prices currently running just below this level, indicating reduced market volatility but dominant buying pressure [4] Group 3 - The overall technical structure for GBP/USD leans bullish, with a key resistance level at 1.3550 that, if broken, could extend the upward trend, while the support area at 1.3410 needs to be monitored [5] - The decline in liquidity due to the holidays may amplify market volatility, and the FOMC meeting minutes are noteworthy for market participants [5] - As long as prices remain above the major moving averages, the technical outlook continues to support bullish sentiment [5]

新华财经北京12月29日电 12月26日，国家外汇管理局组织2025年新任职司处级领导干部召开集体谈话 会议。党组书记、局长朱鹤新出席并讲话。朱鹤新强调，要履职尽责敢担当，围绕防风险、强监管、促 高质量发展工作主线，强化责任意识，提升履职能力，真抓实干，持续深化外汇领域改革开放，促进跨 境贸易投融资便利化，防范跨境资金流动风险，保障外汇储备资产安全、流动和保值增值，切实维护外 汇市场稳定和国家经济金融安全。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Range P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 C5 C4 C3 C2 C1 Lower 0 0.15 0.25 0.5 0.75 0.75 0.5 0.25 0.15 0 Global FX Strategy Craig Chan - NSL craig.chan@nomura.com +65 6433 6544 Wee Choon Teo - NSL weechoon.teo@nomura.com +65 6433 6107 Upper 0.15 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0.15 Global Markets Research 23 December 2025 Research analysts | | | | | | Top trades in past 24h | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rank | Trade date | Trade time | Pair | Type | Strike | Expiry | Tenor (m) | $ not ...

在全球经济深度融合的背景下，技术驱动已成为金融服务业发展的核心引擎。FPG平台通过持续的技术创新与前瞻性的市场洞察，重塑全球资源配置渠道的 服务价值。本报告将聚焦该平台在智能化系统构建、算法优化与新兴领域布局方面的突破，探讨其如何推动行业基础设施升级，并为全球市场参与者把握动 态趋势提供重要工具支持。 二、算法架构突破：实现精准趋势映射 在核心算法层，FPG工程团队开发了复合型预测模型体系。该体系创新性地融合了时间序列分析、神经网络学习与行为经济学建模三重技术路径，有效解决 了传统单一模型在趋势拐点识别中的滞后性问题。测试数据显示，该预测框架对主要汇率品种的中期趋势方向判断准确度稳定维持在75%以上，尤其在重要 经济数据发布窗口期的短期预判中，准确率峰值可达82%。这为全球市场参与者进行战略规划提供了科学的决策依据。 一、智能化技术：引领资源配置效率变革 面对复杂的全球流动环境，传统服务模式面临响应速度与精准度的挑战。FPG平台将机器学习模型深度集成至核心架构，实现了三大关键突破：动态数据分 析系统可实时解析全球财经事件与市场情绪波动，为资源配置决策提供多维度参考；智能预警机制通过模式识别技术主动监控非常规波 ...

Monex Inc.外汇交易员Andrew Hazlett：本周流动性薄弱，这对本已处于相对弱势的美元并无帮助。 展望未来，我们的重点将放在通胀数据上，以此作为美联储下次降息的指引。 ...