Core Viewpoints - The report reiterates the focus on "price increase" opportunities due to current market conditions, including geopolitical disturbances and upcoming quarterly reports, suggesting that sectors with price increase expectations are the most certain investment opportunities [1][2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current price increase trend is similar to that of 2020-2021, driven by global monetary easing and structural supply-demand mismatches in various industries, such as the semiconductor sector affected by pandemic-induced demand shifts [2][3] - The semiconductor industry, particularly storage, is experiencing price increases due to AI demand, with potential future impacts from tightened rare earth exports affecting supply chains [2][3] Metal Sector Precious Metals - Gold and silver are seen as strategic assets, with gold benefiting from geopolitical instability and central bank purchases, while silver has both precious and industrial metal attributes, showing strong price support due to supply-demand gaps [4][6] Minor Metals - Prices for cobalt, tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are expected to rise due to export restrictions and increasing demand from downstream industries, with cobalt's price expected to rise following changes in export regulations [6][8] Chemical Sector - The PTA industry is anticipated to recover as major players seek to improve profitability through potential production cuts, while pesticide prices, particularly glyphosate, have seen significant increases [7][8] Semiconductor Sector - The storage chip market is entering a growth phase driven by recovering consumer electronics and unexpected AI server demand, leading to price hikes across various storage products [8][9] New Energy Sector Battery and Raw Materials - The demand for energy storage and power batteries is surging, with rising raw material costs pushing up battery prices, particularly for lithium iron phosphate and electrolyte [9][10] Wind Power - The wind power sector is witnessing a rebound in bidding prices due to industry self-regulation and increased global demand for wind installations [11][12] Photovoltaic Silicon - The multi-crystalline silicon industry is seeing a reduction in effective capacity due to policy-driven supply-side adjustments, moving towards a more balanced supply-demand scenario [12] Copper Clad Laminate - The demand for copper clad laminate is increasing due to rising capital expenditures from major internet companies, leading to price increases from manufacturers [13] Diesel Generators/UPS Lead-Acid Batteries - The demand for diesel generators and UPS lead-acid batteries is growing rapidly due to the expansion of data centers, with supply constraints leading to price increases [14]

Market Overview - The small metals sector experienced a decline of 2.66% on October 10, with Huaxi Nonferrous Metals leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.03, down 0.94%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13355.42, down 2.7% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals saw a significant drop of 7.68%, closing at 31.87, with a trading volume of 220,800 shares and a transaction value of 720 million [2] - Other notable declines included Caoyuan Tungsten Industry down 5.74% and Shenghe Resources down 5.00% [2] - In contrast, Aluminum Corporation of China (Aluminum Co.) increased by 0.56%, closing at 25.27 [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The small metals sector experienced a net outflow of 4.323 billion in main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 2.717 billion [2] - The data indicates that retail investors are actively buying into the sector despite the overall decline [2] Detailed Fund Flow - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals had a main fund net inflow of 8.3204 million, but retail investors showed a net outflow of 12.7964 million [3] - Other stocks like Huayang New Materials and Jin Tian Titanium Industry also reported negative net inflows from main funds [3] - Conversely, stocks like Anning Co. and Xianglu Tungsten Industry saw significant retail inflows, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [3]

- The non-ferrous metal index (000819.SH) has increased by 83.14% since 2025, and by 83.87% since April 7, 2025, significantly outperforming the Wind All A Index during the same period [2][11][12] - Public fund holdings in the non-ferrous metal sector have rebounded since August 2025, based on real-time calculations using public market data such as fund net value, disclosed holdings, and research activities [3][15] - ETF holdings in the non-ferrous metal sector have been steadily increasing since July 2025, reflecting the growing popularity of index investment products, with the total scale of public ETF funds exceeding 4.3 trillion yuan by the end of Q2 2025 [3][18][20] - Margin balance in the non-ferrous metal sector has been rising since July 2025, indicating increased investor optimism about the market outlook [3][22][23] - Chip yield characteristics show that the current profitability effect of the non-ferrous metal index is 25.14%, with chip yield reflecting the return rate of current prices relative to historical chip costs [3][25][26] - Institutional research has been most frequent for companies such as Northern Rare Earth, Yunnan Copper, and Chihong Zinc & Germanium in 2025 [4][27][29] - Ganfeng Lithium, Huayou Cobalt, and Zijin Mining have received the highest attention from Snowball platform influencers since September 15, 2025 [4][30][31][32] - Major funds have flowed into companies such as Quartz Co., Bowei Alloy, and Shenghe Resources since September 15, 2025, with large and super-large orders used as proxy variables for major funds [4][34][35][38] - Companies such as Bowei Alloy, Jinli Permanent Magnet, and China Rare Earth have appeared on the Dragon Tiger List since September 15, 2025, reflecting the most active trading dynamics in the market [4][39] - High-frequency shareholder data indicates significant increases in shareholder numbers for companies such as Chifeng Gold, Huafeng Aluminum, and Hunan Gold, which may signal potential risks for subsequent stock prices [4][41][43]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong opening on October 9, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3900 points, reaching a ten-year high at 3933.97 points, up 1.32% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47% to 13725.56 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.73% to 3261.82 points [1] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 26,532 billion yuan, a significant increase of 4,718 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The majority of industry sectors saw gains, with precious metals, energy metals, and steel industries leading the rise, while tourism and real estate services faced declines [1] - The precious metals sector saw a notable increase, with 12 stocks in the sector, 4 of which hit the daily limit, and the smallest gain being 5.3% for Hunan Gold [2] Key Drivers - The market's upward momentum was attributed to two main factors: accelerated recovery of margin financing and positive performance in overseas markets, particularly in artificial intelligence and non-ferrous metals [1] - The price of gold surpassed 4000 USD/ounce, driven by increased risk aversion due to the U.S. government shutdown, ongoing global central bank gold purchases, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Technical Analysis - The market showed strong bullish signals, with all three major indices in a bullish arrangement, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index, which is expected to continue rising and may reach 4000 points soon [3] - The MACD indicator showed a reduction in green bars, and the KDJ line indicated an upward trend, suggesting further upward movement in the coming days [3] Company Spotlight - Jinbei Electric, a company specializing in the research, production, and sales of wire and cable products, saw its stock hit the daily limit, primarily due to the favorable sentiment surrounding the controllable nuclear fusion concept [3] - The company reported a net profit of 296.28 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.46% [3] - Jinbei Electric's products are utilized in various nuclear power stations and are involved in projects related to the nuclear fusion industry, enhancing its market position [3]

中国稀土所属申万行业为：有色金属-小金属-稀土。所属概念板块包括：稀土永磁、稀缺资源、小金 属、国资改革、MSCI中国等。 截至9月19日，中国稀土股东户数23.00万，较上期增加6.66%；人均流通股4614股，较上期减少6.25%。 2025年1月-6月，中国稀土实现营业收入18.75亿元，同比增长62.38%；归母净利润1.62亿元，同比增长 166.16%。 分红方面，中国稀土A股上市后累计派现3.46亿元。近三年，累计派现1.24亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，中国稀土十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流 通股东，持股1960.25万股，相比上期增加389.09万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第五大流通股 东，持股1106.63万股，相比上期增加148.70万股。南方中证申万有色金属ETF发起联接A（004432）退 出十大流通股东之列。 10月10日，中国稀土盘中下跌2.00%，截至10:21，报55.77元/股，成交26.27亿元，换手率4.37%，总市 值591.84亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出6735.87万元，特大单买入4.60亿元，占比1 ...

Group 1: Holiday Overview - The holiday period saw strong domestic travel data, with a total of approximately 1.833 billion people traveling across regions, a year-on-year increase of 5.19% compared to the same period last year [10][11] - The box office for the National Day holiday reached over 1.7 billion yuan, although this was lower than the previous year's total of 2.104 billion yuan, attributed to lower ticket prices and increased travel spending [11] - The central bank has increased its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months, with reserves reaching 7.406 million ounces (approximately 2303.523 tons) by the end of September [11] Group 2: Third Quarter Earnings Insights - The report highlights four key sectors to watch for the third quarter earnings: 1) Non-ferrous metals benefiting from external interest rate cuts and emerging demand, 2) Steel, coal, chemicals, and photovoltaics stabilizing prices due to anti-involution trends, 3) Automotive, lithium battery, electricity, and logistics sectors maintaining steady growth, and 4) AI-related sectors driven by domestic and international demand [2][30] - Industrial enterprises are expected to show marginal improvements, particularly in upstream cyclical sectors such as chemical fibers, steel, coal, and paper, while sectors like apparel, liquor, and plastics may face downward pressure [19][30] Group 3: Monthly Market Review - The report notes that since September, overseas interest rate cuts have led to a resurgence in gold prices, which reached historical highs, while the Hong Kong stock market saw significant gains [3][31] - In the A-share market, growth and cyclical styles have significantly outperformed, with electric equipment and non-ferrous metals leading the gains, while sectors like military, banking, and non-banking financials experienced declines [3][31]

Group 1 - The small metal concept index rose by 4.16%, ranking 9th among concept sectors, with 128 stocks increasing in value, including Zhejiang Fu Holdings, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and Gao Neng Environment reaching the daily limit [1] - Notable gainers in the small metal sector included China Rare Earth, Zhaojin Mining, and Yuguang Gold Lead, which increased by 9.97%, 9.94%, and 9.87% respectively [1] - The top decliners were Jinyang Co., *ST Yazhen, and Wanye Enterprises, which fell by 4.91%, 4.90%, and 4.09% respectively [1] Group 2 - The small metal concept sector saw a net inflow of 3.335 billion yuan, with 81 stocks receiving net inflows, and 21 stocks attracting over 100 million yuan [2] - The leading stock for net inflow was Northern Rare Earth, which had a net inflow of 2.969 billion yuan, followed by China Railway, China Aluminum, and Shenghe Resources with net inflows of 428.14 million yuan, 358.15 million yuan, and 347.92 million yuan respectively [2] - In terms of net inflow ratio, Jinding Mining, Zhejiang Fu Holdings, and Antai Technology led with ratios of 49.56%, 38.25%, and 37.79% respectively [3] Group 3 - The small metal concept stocks with significant price increases included Northern Rare Earth (10.00%), China Railway (5.44%), and China Aluminum (5.34%) [3] - Other notable gainers included Shenghe Resources (9.41%), China Rare Earth (9.97%), and Western Mining (10.00%) [3] - The stocks with the highest turnover rates included Dazhi Co. (26.96%) and Antai Technology (4.15%) [3] Group 4 - The small metal sector's performance was highlighted by the significant gains in stocks such as Zhaojin Mining (9.94%) and Yuguang Gold Lead (9.87%) [5] - The overall market sentiment in the small metal sector appears positive, with many stocks experiencing substantial increases in both price and trading volume [5]

证券之星消息，10月9日小金属板块较上一交易日上涨7.63%，北方稀土领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3933.97，上涨1.32%。深证成指报收于13725.56，上涨1.47%。小金属板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日小金属板块主力资金净流入35.4亿元，游资资金净流出15.92亿元，散户资金净 流出19.48亿元。小金属板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600111 | 北方稀土 | 26.58亿 | 15.20% | -14.28亿 | -8.16% | -12.30 Z | -7.04% | | 600392 | 盛和资源 | 3.59 Z | 7.61% | -7697.49万 | -1.63% | -2.82 Z | -5.98% | | 000831 | 中国稀土 | 3.13 Z | 5.46% | -1.21 乙 | -2.11% | -1.92 Z | ...

Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue the upward trend observed in September, maintaining a low-slope oscillating movement in October, with a high probability of an upward trend due to the low base effect from last year and anticipated earnings growth in most industries [1][2] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session and the introduction of the 15th Five-Year Plan are expected to influence market expectations and trading directions, maintaining a high risk appetite in October [2] Industry Recommendations - Key sectors to focus on include non-ferrous metals, power equipment, machinery, automotive, electronics, and media, particularly those with sustained high prosperity and potential for turnaround [1][3][7] - Specific recommendations include industrial metals, precious metals, photovoltaic equipment, batteries, automation equipment, passenger vehicles, semiconductor, consumer electronics, and gaming [3][7] Investment Style and Fund Flows - The market is leaning towards a large-cap style in October, with growth expected to continue to outperform, and a more balanced industry style [3] - There is a positive outlook for net inflows of incremental funds in October, driven by financing funds and continued interest in industry and thematic ETFs [4][5] Economic and Liquidity Conditions - The macro liquidity environment is expected to remain stable, with the central bank maintaining a supportive monetary policy, which is crucial for market stability [4] - The overall funding supply is improving, with a notable increase in the issuance of equity funds and a shift from net redemptions to net subscriptions in ETFs [5] Earnings and Sector Performance - The third-quarter earnings report is anticipated to show significant growth in sectors such as high-end manufacturing, AI industry chain, and essential consumer goods, driven by low base effects and policy support [6][7] - The sectors with the highest expected earnings growth include mid-to-high-end manufacturing, AI-related industries, and certain resource products [6]

Core Viewpoint - The main observation is that the A-share market is experiencing controlled fluctuations, with significant influence from major financial sectors like banks, securities, and insurance, which are being used to manage market movements and prevent excessive volatility [3][4][5]. Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively rose today, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.52% to 3882.78 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.35% to 13526.51 points, and the ChiNext Index remaining flat at 3238.16 points. The total trading volume reached 21.814 trillion, an increase of 200 billion from the previous trading day [2][9]. Market Control and Dynamics - The main players have demonstrated a high level of control over the Shanghai Composite Index, maintaining a narrow trading range of approximately 20 points throughout the day. This control is primarily executed through the banking, securities, and insurance sectors [3][4]. - The recent surge in the market was attributed to a rise in H-shares, which inadvertently boosted A-shares, indicating a cross-market influence where the performance of Hong Kong stocks impacted mainland stocks [3][6]. Sector Performance - The energy metals sector, along with semiconductor stocks, showed notable activity, although there was significant differentiation within the semiconductor sector. For instance, stocks like "Ji Lian Hai" performed poorly, while "Han Wu Ji" initially opened strong but closed with nearly all gains reversed, highlighting the risks associated with high-flying stocks [6][7]. - The financial sector, particularly banks, has seen significant outflows, with bank stocks reaching new lows in the current market cycle, raising questions about the underlying reasons for this divergence from the overall bullish sentiment [8]. Capital Flow - Today's capital flow favored sectors such as aerospace (1.74 billion), small metals (1.53 billion), and medical services (1 billion), while the largest outflows were from the securities sector (7.89 billion) and communication equipment (6.18 billion) [8]. - The overall market is characterized by a balance between bullish and bearish sentiments, with a median stock performance of zero across approximately 5000 stocks, indicating a lack of strong directional movement [7][8]. Monthly Review - For the month of September, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.64% (approximately 24 points), while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index showed more pronounced gains, suggesting a more dynamic performance in the Shenzhen market compared to the Shanghai market [9].