Group 1: Luxury Brands Market Dynamics - Luxury brands like Chanel and Prada are adjusting strategies by closing non-core stores and optimizing regional layouts to cope with market fatigue [1] - LV and Estée Lauder face growth bottlenecks due to reliance on tariffs and purchasing agents, leading to price increases and channel restructuring [1] - The luxury market is experiencing a "value return," with brands emphasizing scarcity and cultural barriers while mass brands focus on technology, sustainability, and user experience [1] Group 2: Financial Performance of Key Players - Estée Lauder reported a 10% decline in net sales to $3.55 billion and a 53% drop in net profit to $159 million for Q3 2025 [2] - Prada's revenue grew by 12.5% to €1.341 billion, with retail income contributing 90.6% of total revenue, driven by a 60.2% increase in Miu Miu's retail income [3] - Chanel closed its independent beauty concept store in New York after six years, indicating a shift in operational strategy [4] Group 3: Pricing and Market Adjustments - Louis Vuitton raised prices in the U.S. market, with the Neverfull GM handbag increasing by 4.8% to $2,200 [5] - Zegna's acquisition of Thom Browne faced challenges, with a significant revenue drop of 18.6% to €64.4 million, highlighting risks in niche brand investments [6] Group 4: Mergers and Acquisitions - Marriott International agreed to acquire citizenM for $355 million, aiming to expand its portfolio in the select service and lifestyle segments [8] - Crown City Watch and Jewelry plans to sell its stake in Swiss luxury watch brand Corum amid declining sales and financial losses [7] Group 5: Emerging Trends and Challenges - Pop Mart's market capitalization reached HKD 260 billion, driven by strong overseas sales and new product launches [9] - Dazzle's parent company, Dazzle Fashion, reported a 16% revenue drop to CNY 2.219 billion, indicating ongoing struggles in the fashion sector [10][11] - BERSHKA plans to go public in Hong Kong, with Tencent holding a 10.7% stake, reflecting strong growth in the outdoor lifestyle segment [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company Berghaus is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong after initially planning to list in China, with significant revenue growth driven by popular affordable outdoor clothing products [1][2][3] Company Overview - Berghaus was founded in 2012 and has grown from a small brand to one of the top three high-performance outdoor brands in China, with 146 stores in first- and second-tier cities by the end of last year [1][3] - The company has received investments from notable firms including Tencent, which holds a 10.70% stake after a recent 300 million RMB investment [2][3] Financial Performance - Berghaus's revenue surged from 380 million RMB in 2022 to 1.76 billion RMB in 2024, marking a 3.6 times increase, with a market share of 5.2% [3][4] - The adjusted net profit increased tenfold from 27.6 million RMB in 2022 to 300 million RMB in 2024, with a net profit margin rising from 7.3% to 17.2% [3][4] Product Strategy - The brand focuses on high-performance, affordable jackets, particularly its innovative "down jackets," which cater to various outdoor and urban activities [5][6] - Berghaus has developed proprietary technologies that enhance product performance, allowing it to compete effectively against international brands [6][7] Market Positioning - The company has capitalized on the growing demand for affordable outdoor gear, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 144% in jacket sales from 2022 to 2024 [8] - Despite its success, Berghaus relies heavily on a limited range of products, with over 82% of its revenue coming from its classic apparel line [8][9] Growth Challenges - To diversify its product offerings, Berghaus has invested in over ten companies, expanding its product matrix to include tents, hiking poles, and footwear [9] - The company faces challenges in building brand recognition and expanding its offline presence, with only 146 stores currently open and plans for significant growth in the coming years [10][12] Marketing and Sales Strategy - Berghaus's online sales account for 70% of its revenue, with a significant portion of its marketing budget allocated to online advertising [10][11] - The company has invested heavily in content marketing across various social media platforms, maintaining a marketing expense ratio of around 30% [11][12] Future Outlook - Berghaus aims to enhance its brand image and profitability through high-end product lines and collaborations, while also addressing the need for increased research and development investment [12][13] - The company is positioned to leverage the growing outdoor market but must navigate the challenges of sustaining growth and expanding its brand beyond being a "value alternative" [13]

Core Insights - The outdoor sports industry in China is projected to exceed 3 trillion yuan by 2025, with over 400 million participants as of the end of 2021, indicating rapid growth in the market, particularly in hiking as a core activity [1][4] - There is a significant increase in demand for outdoor activities among young people, with a notable rise in participation and community engagement, as evidenced by the popularity of hiking clubs and social media discussions [4][6] Industry Trends - The consumption of outdoor sports tourism products in Jiangsu, Beijing, and Guangdong provinces has seen year-on-year growth rates of over 170%, 252%, and 40% respectively, highlighting a strong trend in outdoor activity participation [4] - Young people are increasingly seeking companionship and community through outdoor activities, leading to a rise in organized hiking events and clubs that cater to this need for social interaction [6][7] Business Model - The establishment of structured outdoor clubs has improved efficiency and safety in organizing hiking events, with a significant increase in participation from newcomers, indicating a successful business model that leverages community and shared interests [5][6] - The focus on emotional value and community engagement has become a key differentiator for outdoor clubs, with activities extending beyond hiking to include social gatherings and themed events [7][8] Market Competition - The outdoor hiking sector is becoming increasingly competitive, with new entrants from established outdoor product brands like Decathlon, which are leveraging their existing customer base to create community-driven outdoor experiences [9][11] - The market is experiencing a cooling period after a surge in interest, with reports of declining participation and sales in outdoor equipment, suggesting a potential market correction [9][10] Challenges - The outdoor industry faces challenges related to safety and quality standards, with a need for professional talent to enhance the quality of outdoor tourism products and services [11]

Group 1: Wild Vegetable Economy - The trend of "wild vegetable picking" has gained popularity among young people, transforming from a niche hobby to a mainstream leisure activity [1][2] - The hashtag 挖野菜 (wild vegetable picking) has garnered over 200 million views on social media platforms, indicating a growing interest in this activity [2] - The wild vegetable economy is driving the development of related industries, with sales of picking tools and "wild vegetable gadgets" seeing significant increases, with some sellers earning up to 100,000 yuan per month [2] Group 2: Camping Economy - The camping trend has led to a surge in demand for portable power sources, with companies developing smaller yet more powerful mobile power supplies to cater to young people's lightweight travel needs [3] - The camping economy is projected to reach a core market size of 248.32 billion yuan in China this year, contributing to a total market scale of 1.44 trillion yuan [3] - New camping experiences are emerging, such as "camping + educational activities" and "camping + music festivals," attracting more participants to outdoor activities [2] Group 3: Young Consumer Trends - Young people's small demands are driving significant market changes, with businesses responding by creating innovative products and services that cater to these new trends [4] - The first quarter of this year saw China's economic growth rate reach 5.4%, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 4.6% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [4] Group 4: Pet Economy - The intersection of camping and pet ownership is creating new consumption patterns, with young people increasingly taking their pets on camping trips [6] - The pet economy is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan in the urban market by 2024, with young consumers being the primary drivers of this growth [6] Group 5: Cultural Consumption - The rise of domestic IPs, such as the "谷子" (millet) trend, reflects a growing cultural confidence among young people, with sales on second-hand platforms skyrocketing [7] - The success of local industries, such as the pet product market in Wenzhou, demonstrates how addressing young people's needs can lead to regional economic revitalization [7] Group 6: Hanfu Industry - The Hanfu industry in Cao County has become a billion-yuan market, accounting for over 50% of the national market share, showcasing the potential for cultural products to drive economic growth [8] - Various new consumer trends, including Hanfu, camping, and wild vegetable picking, are collectively transforming the market landscape and promoting higher quality development [8]

春暖花开，草木蔓发，正是户外运动好时节。 周末清晨，阳光透过树叶洒在江西萍乡市鹅湖公园的林下绿地上，清新柔美的自然环境成为人们开展户 外运动的热门地。"自从改造后，这片绿地增设了太阳能健身器材、乒乓球台、象棋桌椅等设施，大家 都爱来这里活动。"家住附近的居民李夏生说，闲置林下空间成了"健身+休闲+社交"场地，丰富了老百 姓的体育消费选择，便利了人们健身锻炼。 "走吧，周末骑行去""来吧，玩一局飞盘"……户外运动受到越来越多人的喜爱，从徒步、骑行、路跑、 垂钓等传统项目，到桨板、飞盘、攀岩、陆地冲浪、匹克球等新兴项目，活动场景逐渐延伸，引领大众 体育消费新风尚。 全民健身蔚然成风，人民群众户外运动热情高涨。美团数据显示，今年4月以来，户外滑板运动的搜索 量同比增长51%，滑板公园、滑板体验课、滑板培训均为热门搜索关联词，上海、北京、深圳等地的搜 索热度最高。 推进绿地共享、开展慢行道建设、建造口袋体育公园、进行体育设施智能化改造……萍乡市城市管理局 以"生态惠民、空间共享"为目标，加强空间资源整合利用，因地制宜完善户外运动基础设施，构建"生 态+运动+消费"的复合型城市空间体系，为各年龄段居民打造亲近自然、多元 ...

Core Viewpoint - Anta Group is set to acquire the German outdoor brand Jack Wolfskin from Topgolf Callaway Brands for a cash consideration of $290 million, with the deal expected to close by mid to late 2025 [3][4]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition price of $290 million is considered a new low for Jack Wolfskin, which has faced a tumultuous history with multiple ownership changes over the past two decades [5][6]. - Jack Wolfskin's revenue for the fiscal year 2025 is projected to be approximately €325 million, with an adjusted EBITDA of €12 million [3][8]. Group 2: Brand Background - Jack Wolfskin was founded in 1981 and has a product line that includes hiking, cycling, skiing, and camping gear, holding significant recognition in Europe and North America [5][11]. - The brand has undergone several ownership changes, including acquisitions by private equity firms and major corporations, leading to fluctuating valuations [5][6]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - Jack Wolfskin remains a well-recognized brand in the outdoor market, particularly in Europe, and has accumulated valuable technology patents, such as the TEXAPORE waterproof and breathable membrane technology [11][12]. - Anta aims to position Jack Wolfskin as a mass-market outdoor brand, filling a gap in its existing portfolio and differentiating it from its high-end outdoor brands [11][13]. Group 4: Future Prospects - Post-acquisition, Jack Wolfskin is expected to focus on the Chinese market as a growth engine while maintaining stability in its European operations [15][16]. - The management structure for Jack Wolfskin post-acquisition remains uncertain, with speculation about who will lead the brand under Anta's ownership [16].

NOMURA 野村东方国际证券 一分钟了解日本 -日本"情绪消费"产业 上期我们介绍了在日本经济转型期下应运而生的三类"情绪消 费"。本期. 我们进一步探索在年轻人这三类情绪消费下衍生出 来的细分产业及产品。 特色住宿产业 Emo和Chill消费 "废校民宿"等 改造酒店兴起,利 即时成像相机 用老旧建筑打造 差异化体验 拍立得在手机拍 照冲击下,借助 户外运动产业 情怀与韩流再度 热销 骑行、登山露营 市场持续增长, "Solo 露营"愈 反能量饮料产业 发流行 内容来源 本内容根据野村东方国际证券2025年1月22日发布的证券研究报告《日本新消费研究之现象篇：情绪、情感和自我满足》 分析师 张影秋 （SAC执证编号：S1720522110001） 曾万霖 （SAC执证编号：S1720524050001） 往期推文回顾 一分钟了解日本｜日本"情绪消费"新潮流 本材料虽由野村东方国际证券有限公司（以下简称"本公司"或"我们"）研究部提供，但并非我们发布的证券 研究报告，仅系我们根据本公司已正式发布的研究报告内容制作。我们不保证本材料内容、观点、文字与正 式出具的研究报告保持完整性、一致性，您应通过查阅本公司正 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **consumer sector** in China, focusing on various industries such as **automotive**, **white spirits**, **food and beverage**, **cosmetics**, **home appliances**, and **light textiles**. [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20] Core Insights and Arguments - **Government Policies on Consumption**: The 2025 government work report emphasizes boosting consumption, with measures including a **3,000 billion yuan** support for trade-in programs and expanding service consumption in health care and childcare. [2][3] - **Consumer Confidence**: Post-Spring Festival, business travel consumption shows signs of recovery, with improved sales in the real estate sector, particularly in first and second-tier cities, positively impacting consumer confidence. [3][4][5] - **White Spirits Industry**: The white spirits sector is in a downward adjustment phase but is expected to gradually find a bottom in 2025. Recommended companies include **本酒**, **迎驾贡酒**, and **今世缘**, with attention to **五粮液**, **泸州老窖**, and **茅台**. [3][6] - **Food and Beverage Sector**: The sector has shown improvement since Q3 of the previous year, with expected growth in the first half of 2025. Recommended companies include **东鹏饮料**, **燕京啤酒**, **青岛啤酒**, and **农夫山泉**. [3][7] - **Cosmetics Industry**: Expected to outperform food and beverage, with recommended companies including **瑞城**, **毛戈平**, and **润本股份**. [3][8] - **Home Appliances**: The subsidy for trade-in programs has doubled from **1,500 billion yuan** to **3,000 billion yuan**, benefiting leading companies and expanding the subsidy range to include small kitchen appliances. [3][9][11][12] - **Automotive Sector**: Focus on overall demand and the integration of smart driving and robotics. Anticipated recovery in passenger car sales in Q2, with recommended companies including **江淮汽车** and **理想汽车**. [3][14][15] - **Light Textile Industry**: The industry shows a mixed performance, with two-wheeler sales benefiting from trade-in policies. Recommended brands include **雅迪** and **爱玛**. [3][16] - **Outdoor Sports Consumption**: The sector remains strong, with traditional brands like **安踏** and **李宁** showing stability. [3][17] - **New Consumption Trends**: Emerging sectors such as AI glasses and electronic cigarettes present significant investment opportunities. [3][18] - **Agricultural Sector**: Benefiting from rural revitalization policies, with recommended companies including **荃银高科** and **丰乐种业**. [3][19] - **Retail Sector**: Policies aimed at increasing income for low- and middle-income groups will inject vitality into the retail sector. [3][20] Additional Important Insights - **Real Estate Impact**: The real estate market's recovery is crucial for consumer confidence and overall economic stability, with sales data showing positive trends. [5][13] - **Subsidy Effectiveness**: The effectiveness of the increased subsidies in stimulating demand for home appliances and the expected positive impact on the kitchen appliance sector. [11][12] - **Market Dynamics**: The differentiation in performance across various sectors, with some industries like cosmetics and food showing growth potential while others like white spirits are in a recovery phase. [6][8][16] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of various industries within the consumer sector in China.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile and apparel industry [5] Core Insights - The high-end outdoor sports market remains vibrant both domestically and internationally, with a notable shift in China's consumer market towards a more competitive landscape where strong brands outperform [4][25] - The report highlights the competitive advantages and moats of leading brands, recommending investments in Anta Sports (02020, Buy), Li Ning (02331, Buy), and Xtep International (01368, Buy), while suggesting to pay attention to Biyinlefen (002832, Buy) and Baoxini (002154, Buy) [4][25] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Amer Sports reported a revenue of $5.183 billion for 2024, an 18% year-on-year increase, exceeding the guidance of 16-17% [7][8] - The adjusted operating profit margin for 2024 was 11.1%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, also above the guidance of 10.5-11% [7][8] - In Q4 2024, revenue reached $1.636 billion, a 23% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 56.1%, up 3.7 percentage points [9][19] Segment Performance - Functional apparel drove overall revenue growth in Q4 2024, with revenue of $745 million, a 33% increase year-on-year [12][14] - Outdoor apparel revenue was $594 million, up 13% year-on-year, primarily driven by Salomon brand [12][14] - Revenue from ball sports and racquet sports reached $296 million, a 22% increase year-on-year [13][14] Regional Insights - The Greater China region remains a key growth engine, with Q4 revenue increasing by 54% year-on-year, followed by the Asia-Pacific region at 52% [16][19] - The Americas and EMEA regions saw revenue growth of 15% and 8% respectively [16][19] Future Guidance - For 2025, Amer Sports projects a revenue growth rate of 13-15%, with specific guidance for functional apparel at 20%, outdoor apparel in the low double digits, and ball sports in the low to mid double digits [21][22] - The company anticipates an operating profit margin of 11.5%-12% for 2025, leaning towards the lower end of the range due to macro uncertainties [21][22] Store Expansion Plans - Amer Sports plans to open 200 stores for the Arc'teryx brand in North America, 75-100 in Europe, 75-100 in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China), and 150-200 in China by 2025 [24][22]