1. Report Information - The report is a daily report on live hog futures, dated September 3, 2025, and the researcher is Qi Jianhua [1] 2. Futures Market 2.1 Contract Quotes - On September 3, 2025, the live hog lh2511 futures contract opened high and closed low, closing at 13,550 points, down 0.15% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 19,400 lots and an open interest of 73,600 lots [2] 2.2 Variety Prices - The prices of live hog futures contracts showed mixed performance throughout the day, with a total open interest of 180,527 lots, an increase of 384 lots from the previous trading day [4] 2.3 Related Quotes - The daily trading volume of live hog options was 5,004 lots, with a total open interest of 30,284 lots, an increase of 440 lots, and the total number of exercises on the day was 0 [7] 3. Spot Market 3.1 Basis Data - The live hog basis today was 315 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, indicating a slight convergence [8] 3.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of live hogs were 430 lots, with no change from the previous day [9][10] 4. Influencing Factors 4.1 Industry News - The national benchmark price of live hogs was 13.85 yuan/kg, down 0.14% day-on-day, still at a four-year low; the price in Deyang, Sichuan was 13.6 yuan/kg, and in Harbin, Heilongjiang was 13.4 yuan/kg, with a regional price difference of only 0.2 yuan/kg [10] 4.2 Technical Analysis - The short, medium, and long-term moving averages of the live hog lh2511 futures contract showed a typical short position arrangement, and the deviation values increased step by step. The short-term was oversold, but the trend remained unchanged [11] 5. Market Outlook - The current situation of "strong supply and average demand" in the live hog spot market remains unchanged, and the price is mainly in a narrow range of fluctuating downward. On the futures market, the price of the live hog lh2511 contract is running below the 20-day moving average and is still in a downward channel. Indicators show that the short side is dominant. If the market sentiment remains pessimistic, the price may weaken further in the short term [12]

罗牛山（000735）(000735.SZ)发布公告，公司2025年8月销售生猪5.36万头，环比下降4.55%,同比增长 12.47%;销售收入9559.03万元，环比下降1.96%，同比下降20.30%。2025年1-8月，公司累计销售生猪 42.72万头，同比下降11.50%;累计销售收入7.99亿元，同比下降9.18%。 ...

Core Insights - The company announced a decrease in pig sales for August 2025, with 53,600 pigs sold, representing a month-on-month decline of 4.55% but a year-on-year increase of 12.47% [1] - The sales revenue for August 2025 was 95.59 million yuan, showing a month-on-month decrease of 1.96% and a year-on-year decline of 20.30% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to August 2025, the company sold 427,200 pigs, which is a year-on-year decrease of 11.50% [1] - The cumulative sales revenue for the same period was 798.84 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.18% [1]

人民财讯9月10日电，罗牛山（000735）9月10日晚间公告，8月销售生猪5.36万头，环比下降4.55%,同 比增长12.47%；销售收入9559.03万元，环比下降1.96%，同比下降20.30%。2025年1—8月，公司累计销 售生猪42.72万头，同比下降11.50%；累计销售收入7.99亿元，同比下降9.18%。 ...

格隆汇9月10日丨罗牛山(000735.SZ)公布，公司2025年8月销售生猪5.36万头，环比下降4.55%,同比增长 12.47%；销售收入9,559.03万元，环比下降1.96%，同比下降20.30%。2025年1-8月，公司累计销售生猪 42.72万头，同比下降11.50%；累计销售收入79,884.33万元，同比下降9.18%。 ...

人民财讯9月9日电，天康生物（002100）9月9日晚间公告，2025年8月份销售生猪26.38万头，环比增长 18.03%，同比增长10.15%；销售收入3.80亿元，环比增长13.43%，同比下降17.03%。2025年8月份商品 猪(扣除仔猪、种猪后)销售均价12.79元/公斤，环比下降6.09%。2025年1—8月，公司累计销售生猪 201.55万头，较去年同期增长8.24%；累计销售收入29.58亿元，较去年同期下降4.89%。 ...

Group 1 - The agricultural sector showed strong performance on September 8, with notable gains in pork and chicken stocks, including Aonong Biological and Tianyu Biological reaching the daily limit, and Lihua Co., Ltd. rising over 6% [1] - On September 5, the Ministry of Commerce of China announced the recognition of dumping in imported pork and pork by-products from the EU, deciding to implement temporary anti-dumping measures in the form of a deposit starting from September 10, 2025, with rates ranging from 15.6% to 62.4% [1] - The import of pork and pork by-products from the EU accounts for over 50% of China's total imports, and the anti-dumping deposit is expected to drive domestic pork prices higher due to increased costs and reduced supply [1] Group 2 - As of September 5, 2025, the national average price of live pigs was 13.79 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.08 yuan/kg [2] - The average weight of pigs sold from the sample was 128.23 kg per head, with a week-on-week increase of 0.4 kg and a year-on-year increase of 1.5 kg [2] - The market outlook suggests that as temperatures cool, demand is expected to improve, leading to tighter supply of large pigs and potential upward movement in pork prices [2]

Group 1 - The 11th Sichuan Agricultural Expo and Chengdu International Modern Urban Agriculture Expo successfully concluded, with Dekang Group showcasing its achievements in the agricultural industry chain, farmer collaboration mechanisms, food safety, and sustainable development [1] - The Sichuan Agricultural Expo was held concurrently with the 11th Sino-German Agricultural Week, serving as a platform to enhance agricultural cooperation between Sichuan and Germany, focusing on sustainable agriculture, smart agriculture, and green technology [1] - Dekang Group presented a report at the Sino-German Agricultural Week, detailing its practices in high-quality livestock development, including the full industry chain from farm to table and the application of grain-saving and emission-reduction technologies [1] Group 2 - Dekang Group is responding to the provincial government's "1+1+8" strategy for building a strong industrial chain, emphasizing technology breeding, farmer collaboration, and low-carbon livestock development [3] - The group's farmer collaboration mechanism and sustainable development model received high recognition from industry experts, providing replicable practices for modernizing Chinese agriculture and new ideas for Sino-German cooperation in the livestock sector [5] - Dekang aims to leverage this opportunity to enhance technological innovation and brand leadership, align with international standards, and expand the influence of "Chuan Pig" in international markets, contributing to the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas in Sichuan [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - From now until the end of the year, the hog market will still be suppressed by the increasing supply, and the overall trend may remain bearish. Pay attention to the potential support from the consumption recovery at low prices in September and potential inventory accumulation behaviors such as secondary fattening and withholding for weight gain in October. However, in a pessimistic market atmosphere, their influence may be only temporary and partial. Considering the current low position of the near - month contracts on the futures market, it is advisable to adopt a low - level consolidation strategy, and mainly short after the rebound following the realization of bullish factors. The far - month contracts have the expectation of capacity reduction, but a significant increase requires clearer data and further stimulus from the news. The spreads such as 35 and 37 should still be in reverse arbitrage [2][11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Supply Pressure - The focus of the domestic hog market in the past two months has been the continuous release of supply pressure, with limited demand absorption and the failure of the peak - season expectation, resulting in a weak rebound in the spot market. The abundant supply comes from several aspects: enterprises responding to regulatory policies and actively reducing weight (from June to September, the monthly average planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased by 3.5% month - on - month and 31% year - on - year; by the end of August, the average slaughter weight of group farms decreased by 1.3 kg compared with the beginning of June, a decrease of 1.1%); the continuous increase in theoretical supply (due to the increase in sows since last year and limited impact of piglet diseases in early 2024, the theoretical supply has gradually increased month - on - month since the end of the third quarter and is significantly higher year - on - year); and the shift in small - scale farmers' expectations from withholding to slaughter since the end of June, leading to a significant decline in pen utilization. As a result, supply pressure has become the dominant factor for hog prices, with limited demand support. The current average price in Henan has dropped to around 14 yuan/kg, and the spot price in Guangxi has fallen below 13 yuan/kg [4] Reasons for the Weakness of the Futures Market - The continuous weakness of the futures market, especially the near - month contracts, is due to the limited reduction in hog weight, insufficient demand, and the uncertainty of the intensity and rhythm of policy regulation. The market had previously anticipated the successive increase in theoretical supply and the decline in spot prices due to policy - driven weight reduction. Although the futures market initially rose in late July due to clearer policy intervention, subsequent data on weight and other aspects were disappointing, consuming some of the patience of long - position funds. The weight decrease in the Yongyi data was only 0.7% month - on - month, and the weight was still 1.76 kg higher year - on - year, indicating a high inventory of live hogs. The consumption performance was also below expectations, and the uncertainty of policy regulation also made the market wait for more certainty about capacity reduction [6] Differentiated Focus on Near - and Far - Month Contracts - For near - month contracts such as 11 - 03 with a basically determined supply, the impact of policy support is limited. The main factors affecting the rhythm are the potential improvement in demand and the possibility of temporary inventory accumulation. In September, demand may increase marginally due to low prices, cooling weather, and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. However, in the current pessimistic market sentiment, these supporting factors may have only a short - term and partial impact on the futures market. For far - month contracts, the key is the implementation of capacity reduction policies. Although the month - on - month increase in the number of sows in July - August has slowed down, the market is still waiting for clearer evidence of capacity reduction. Currently, the far - month contracts are undervalued and may be prone to rise but difficult to fall, yet a significant increase requires further news stimulus [11]

Group 1 - Pork stocks experienced a rapid increase at the beginning of trading on September 8, with Tianyu Biological hitting the daily limit, and Aonong Biological rising over 8% [1] - Other companies in the sector, including Juxing Agriculture, Wens Foodstuffs, and Muyuan Foods, also saw their stock prices rise [1]