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建信期货铁矿石日评-20250827
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 03:15
Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On August 26, the iron ore futures main contract 2601 fluctuated weakly, closing at 776.5 yuan/ton, down 0.70%. The main iron ore outer - market quotes and Qingdao Port iron ore prices decreased. Although the iron ore 2601 contract's technical indicators showed some positive signals, the market was affected by factors such as the SimFer mine accident, supply - demand fundamentals, and external news. The market expected that the parade might lead to a decline in terminal construction site demand and blast furnace demand, and the mine price weakened again. Further observation of the actual impact of production cuts in Tangshan and the impact of the 9·3 production restrictions on downstream construction steel demand is needed [7][9][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - Spot Market: On August 26, the main iron ore outer - market quotes decreased by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 5 - 8 yuan/ton [9] - Technical Analysis: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to rise after a golden cross yesterday, and the green bar of the daily MACD indicator has narrowed for two consecutive days [9] 1.2 Future Outlook - News: On August 23, Rio Tinto announced that an accident at the SimFer mine in Guinea led to a fatality, and all activities in the mine were suspended. The impact of the accident was limited, and production was expected to resume soon. However, it boosted bullish sentiment in the short term, which has now faded [10][11] - Fundamentals: Supply - the weekly shipment volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil increased slightly last week, with a significant increase in Australian shipments and a decline in Brazilian shipments. The total shipment volume in the past four weeks increased by 1.8% compared with the previous four weeks. Considering shipping schedules, the subsequent arrival volume may be low first and then high. Demand - enterprises' production enthusiasm remained high, and the molten iron output increased for two consecutive weeks, remaining above 2.4 million tons. Regarding the 9·3 production restrictions, according to Mysteel's survey, 20 out of 31 steel mills received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions, mainly for sintering machines with a 30% - 40% reduction. Only 13 steel mills said their blast furnace production would be affected, mostly in Tangshan. The recent decline in steel production profits, especially for rebar blast furnaces, may affect future production enthusiasm. Downstream steel demand recovered last week, but its sustainability needs to be observed. Considering the possible phased suspension of infrastructure projects in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region before September 3, a cautious attitude is recommended, and there is a possibility of demand weakening again [11] 2. Industry News - On August 25, 2025, the Australian Anti - Dumping Commission postponed the release of the basic fact report and final arbitration recommendation for the anti - dumping sunset review investigation of imported wire rods from China. It is expected to complete the basic fact report by December 10, 2025, and submit the final arbitration report to the Australian Minister of Industry and Science by February 23, 2026 [13] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including prices, shipment volumes, arrival volumes, inventory, production capacity utilization rates, and consumption volumes, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [17][24][40]
铁矿石早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 02:42
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the latest prices, daily and weekly changes, and other relevant data for various types of iron ore, including Australian mainstream and non - mainstream ores, Brazilian mainstream ores, and domestic ores, as well as iron ore futures contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Category Spot Market - **Australian Ores**: Newman powder is priced at 767, with a daily change of - 9 and a weekly change of 2; PB powder is at 770, - 10 daily and 2 weekly; Macarthur powder is 758, - 8 daily and 3 weekly; etc [1]. - **Brazilian Ores**: Ba Hun is priced at 807, with a daily change of - 5 and a weekly change of - 2; Ba Coarse IOC6 is 778, - 10 daily and 18 weekly; Ba Coarse SSFG is 783, - 10 daily and 18 weekly [1]. - **Other Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate is 883, - 7 daily and 10 weekly; 61% Indian powder is 731, - 10 daily and 1 weekly; Tangshan iron concentrate is 989, 0 daily and 12 weekly [1]. Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 is priced at 776.5, with a daily change of - 10.5 and a weekly change of 5.5; i2605 is 754.0, - 9.0 daily and 4.5 weekly; i2509 is 797.0, - 9.5 daily and 8.0 weekly [1]. - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 is 102.55, with a daily change of 2.71 and a weekly change of 2.01; FE05 is 100.23, 2.68 daily and 2.12 weekly; FE09 is 103.26, 2.67 daily and 1.83 weekly [1].
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250827
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:10
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening, with the market focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. - Different asset classes are expected to show short - term range - bound trends, and specific investment strategies vary according to different sectors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook has raised concerns about central bank independence, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. Policy stimulus has been strengthened, and the short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased while domestic easing expectations have increased, resulting in an overall increase in domestic risk appetite. - Asset Recommendations: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level, and cautious observation is advised; commodities in different sectors are generally expected to oscillate in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended [2]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as rare earth concepts, biomedicine, and small metals, the domestic stock market declined slightly. - With the strengthening of policy stimulus, the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty, and the increase in domestic easing expectations, the short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported in the short term due to increased concerns about independence, rising risk of stagflation, and strengthened rate - cut expectations. However, attention should be paid to the Fed's attitude changes, and the market focus is on the upcoming US PCE data [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures markets of steel continued to be weak. Demand was weak, inventory increased, and supply was expected to decline in the future. With strong cost support, a range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined. With strong northern production - restriction expectations, cautious procurement by steel mills, and increasing supply pressure, a range - bound approach is expected in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices were flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. Supply in some regions was increasing, but there were potential production - cut plans. A range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: There is a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing prices. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [9]. - **Glass**: Supply is stable, demand is difficult to increase significantly, and it is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term under the boost of real - estate news [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The impact of Trump's attempt to remove Cook on the copper market is expected to be small in the short term, and domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: The price declined slightly. The fundamentals changed little, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, production costs are rising, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: Supply is expected to be relatively loose in the long term, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to oscillate in a wide range, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate in a range, considering the high - level oscillation of black metals and polysilicon [13]. - **Polysilicon**: It is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about the Fed's independence and the potential impact of US tariffs on India's oil imports have affected oil prices. There is still some support for oil prices in the near term [16]. - **Asphalt**: Supported by anti - involution in the petrochemical industry and rising crude oil prices, but with limited inventory reduction, it is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the near term [16]. - **PX**: It is in a tight situation in the short term and is expected to oscillate while waiting for changes in PTA device operations [16]. - **PTA**: Driven by capacity adjustments and increased downstream demand, it is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating pattern in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has decreased slightly. Supported by downstream demand recovery, but facing supply pressure, short - term buying on dips should pay attention to crude oil cost fluctuations [18][19]. - **Short - fiber**: Driven by sector resonance, its price increased slightly. It is expected to follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies in the medium term [19]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, but the oversupply situation remains. It is expected to oscillate in price [19]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, but there is policy support. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on peak - season inventory - building [19]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains, and demand shows signs of turning. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on demand and inventory - building [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The selling pressure of US Treasuries has increased, and the weakening of the US dollar has provided some support to commodities. The expected Sino - US trade negotiations have boosted the export sales expectations of US soybeans [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic soybean and soybean meal in oil mills has eased. Rapeseed meal still has the basis for upward fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations [21]. - **Oils**: Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the supply is expected to shrink; soybean oil is expected to have a low - valuation price - increase market; palm oil is expected to enter an oscillating phase [21]. - **Corn**: The national corn price is running weakly. The futures price has entered a relatively low - valuation range, and there is a low possibility of breaking through the previous range [21]. - **Pigs**: The weight of pigs has declined, and the second - fattening market is cautious. The market's pessimistic sentiment about the fourth - quarter outlook has increased [22].
黑色建材日报-20250827
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products declined slightly. The demand for finished steel products is clearly weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively improved, the prices may continue to decline. [3] - The supply and demand contradictions of iron ore are not prominent for the moment, and its price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping progress and the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. [6] - The prices of ferrous alloys have dropped rapidly. In the short - term, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities. The fundamental problems of over - supply in the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron industries remain. [7][8][9] - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. Polysilicon continues the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation" and is expected to have high - volatility. [12][13][14] - The price of glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and the price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price of soda ash may gradually rise, but the increase is limited. [16][17] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3113 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.79%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3367 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.64%) from the previous trading day. [2] - **Market Analysis**: The export volume of steel increased slightly this week but remained in a weak and volatile pattern. The output of rebar decreased significantly this week, demand improved slightly but remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to rise, production increased rapidly, and inventory increased for six consecutive weeks. [3] Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 776.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.33% (-10.50), and the position changed to 45.29 million hands. The weighted position was 80.85 million hands. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 41.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.08%. [5] - **Market Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipping was stable. Australian shipping increased, Brazilian shipping decreased, and non - mainstream shipping decreased slightly. The recent arrival volume decreased. The daily average pig iron output was basically flat, the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline, port inventory increased slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory decreased slightly. [6] Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Price and Position Data**: On August 26, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.61% at 5862 yuan/ton, and the main contract of silicon iron (SF511) closed down 0.42% at 5656 yuan/ton. [7] - **Market Analysis**: The prices of ferrous alloys dropped rapidly due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment. The over - supply situation of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and production continued to rise. There were no obvious fundamental contradictions in silicon iron, and supply also continued to increase. [8][9] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8515 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.84% (-160). The weighted contract position changed to 526046 hands. [11] - **Market Analysis**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand of industrial silicon remained. Production continued to rise, and the support from the demand side was limited. It was expected to fluctuate between 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. [12] - **Polysilicon** - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 50985 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.15% (-595). The weighted contract position changed to 320439 hands. [13] - **Market Analysis**: Polysilicon continued the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. Production continued to increase, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly. It was expected to have high - volatility. [14] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price in Shahe was 1138 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price in Central China was 1070 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. As of August 21, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.606 million heavy boxes, up 180,000 heavy boxes (0.28%) from the previous period. [16] - **Market Analysis**: The production of glass remained high, inventory pressure increased slightly, and downstream real - estate demand did not improve significantly. The price adjustment space was limited, and the market expected policy support. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. [16] - **Soda Ash** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of soda ash was 1200 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. As of August 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8881 million tons, down 22,700 tons (1.19%) from last Thursday. [17] - **Market Analysis**: The price of soda ash fluctuated with the coal - chemical sector. The downstream demand was difficult to improve quickly, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and gradually rise in the long - term, but the increase was limited. [17]
铁货发布中期业绩,股东应占亏损1.02亿美元 同比增加670.2%
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 00:11
Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of $123 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [1] - The loss attributable to shareholders was $102 million, a significant increase of 670.2% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted basic loss was $2.98 million, which is a decrease of 72.5% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Nikolai Levitskii, Chairman of the company, described the period as both a transformation and a challenging phase, highlighting significant operational improvements despite external market pressures [1] - The successful mining operations at the Sutara mine have greatly transformed the company, marking a watershed moment due to improved ore quality that allowed for increased production at K&S [1] - External factors such as falling iron ore prices and the appreciation of the ruble have negatively impacted financial performance, offsetting sales growth [1] - The company has recognized a non-cash impairment charge on the book value of K&S primarily due to the impact of the ruble appreciation [1] - The company remains focused on improving operational efficiency, maintaining financial flexibility and liquidity, and preparing to benefit from market recovery [2]
铁货(01029)发布中期业绩,股东应占亏损1.02亿美元 同比增加670.2%
智通财经网· 2025-08-27 00:05
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of $123 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, but faced a significant loss attributable to shareholders of $102 million, which is a 670.2% increase compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the period was $123 million, up 9.3% year-on-year [1] - Loss attributable to shareholders reached $102 million, a substantial increase of 670.2% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted basic loss was $2.98 million, showing a decrease of 72.5% year-on-year [1] Operational Insights - The chairman highlighted that the period was both a transformative and challenging time for the company [1] - Significant operational improvements were noted, particularly from the successful mining operations at the Sutara mine, which enhanced ore quality and allowed for increased production at K&S [1] - Despite operational advancements and increased sales, financial performance was adversely affected by external market conditions, including falling iron ore prices and the appreciation of the ruble [1] Market Conditions - External factors, such as declining iron ore prices and the strengthening ruble, largely offset the sales growth achieved by the company [1] - The company recorded a non-cash impairment charge related to the book value of K&S, primarily due to the impact of the ruble's appreciation [1] Future Outlook - The company remains focused on improving operational efficiency, maintaining financial flexibility and liquidity, and preparing to benefit from a market recovery [2] - Confidence in the company's assets, team, and ability to create value persists despite the challenges anticipated in 2025 [2]
铁矿石早报-20250826
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 14:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on various iron ore products including spot prices, price changes, import profits, and exchange - contract prices. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market Data - **Australian Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 776, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of 9; PB powder price is 780, with a daily change of 13 and a weekly change of 10; Mac powder price is 766, with a daily change of 13 and a weekly change of 3; etc. [1] - **Brazilian Iron Ore**: Ba - Hun price is 812, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 3; Ba - Cu IOC6 price is 788, with a daily change of 13 and a weekly change of 26; etc. [1] - **Other Regions' Iron Ore**: Ukrainian fine powder price is 890, with a daily change of 12 and a weekly change of 16; 61% Indian powder price is 741, with a daily change of 12 and a weekly change of 10; etc. [1] - **Domestic Iron Ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate powder price is 989, with a daily change of 12 and a weekly change of 12. [1] Exchange - Contract Data - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 price is 787.0, with a daily change of 17.0 and a weekly change of 15.0; i2605 price is 763.0, with a daily change of 15.5 and a weekly change of 13.0; i2509 price is 806.5, with a daily change of 17.5 and a weekly change of 16.5. [1] - **FE Contracts**: FE01 price is 99.84, with a daily change of - 0.68 and a weekly change of - 1.36; FE05 price is 97.55, with a daily change of - 0.66 and a weekly change of - 1.18; FE09 price is 100.59, with a daily change of - 0.58 and a weekly change of - 1.31. [1]
新矿资源(01231.HK)中期净亏损约40万美元
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-26 10:59
格隆汇8月26日丨新矿资源(01231.HK)公告,截至2025年6月30日止6个月,集团录得收入约108.7百万美 元,较去年同期约174.8百万美元有所减少。受报告期间主要供应商铁矿石供应量减少及铁矿石单位毛 利因对集团铁矿石需求疲弱而显著下跌影响,集团于报告期间的收入及毛利分别较去年同期减少约66.1 百万美元及约2.8百万美元。集团报告期间录得净亏损约0.4百万美元,而去年同期则为净溢利约1.4百万 美元。 ...
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250826
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 08:15
Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Steel prices rose again, with the spread between the 10 - 1 contract of rebar falling and that of hot - rolled coil strengthening. The spread between coil and rebar is expected to decline from its high. The overall apparent demand showed signs of bottoming out and rebounding last week but remained at an off - season level. Steel is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern, and it is recommended to try long positions, with reference levels of 3140 yuan for hot - rolled coil and 3380 yuan for rebar [1] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3280 yuan/ton to 3310 yuan/ton. The 10 - 1 spread of rebar decreased, while that of hot - rolled coil increased [1] - **Cost and Profit**: Costs and profits of different steel - making processes and regions changed. For instance, the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased from 117 to - 41 [1] - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output was 240.8 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 million tons (0.0%). The output of five major steel products was 878.1 million tons, an increase of 6.4 million tons (0.7%) [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased from 1416.0 million tons to 1441.0 million tons, a rise of 25.1 million tons (1.8%) [1] - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased from 9.4 to 11.1, a rise of 1.7 (18.3%). The apparent demand of five major steel products increased from 831.0 million tons to 853.0 million tons, a rise of 22.0 million tons (2.6%) [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The 2601 contract of iron ore showed an oscillating upward trend. The global shipment volume of iron ore decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports declined, but the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rebound. The short - term demand is bearish, but after the military parade, the resumption of steel mills' production will support raw materials. It is recommended to switch to long positions on dips and recommend the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [3] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the basis of the 01 contract for different powders also changed significantly. For example, the basis of the 01 contract for PB powder increased from 23.9 to 40.1, a rise of 16.3 (68.3%) [3] - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2393.3 million tons, a decrease of 83.3 million tons (- 3.4%); the global weekly shipment volume was 3315.8 million tons, a decrease of 90.8 million tons (- 2.7%) [3] - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 million tons (0.0%); the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 325.7 million tons, a decrease of 8.9 million tons (- 2.7%) [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports decreased from 13856.40 million tons to 13845.20 million tons, a decrease of 11.2 million tons (- 0.1%); the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased from 9136.4 million tons to 9065.5 million tons, a decrease of 70.9 million tons (- 0.8%) [3] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The coke futures showed a strong rebound, and the coking coal futures also rebounded strongly. The seventh round of coke price increase was implemented. The supply and demand of coke are expected to be tight, and the downstream steel mills still have restocking needs. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coke on dips and recommend the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coking coal, due to factors such as limited production expectations, it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coking coal on dips and the same arbitrage strategy [5] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal contracts and their spreads changed. For example, the 01 contract of coke increased from 1679 yuan/ton to 1736 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.4%; the 09 - 01 spread of coke decreased from - 52 to - 84 [5] - **Supply**: The weekly output of coke and coking coal showed different trends. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1 million tons (0.1%); the weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines was 860.4 million tons, an increase of 3.8 million tons (0.4%) [5] - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 million tons (0.0%). The coking plants' demand for coking coal increased slightly [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory of coke and coking coal in different sectors changed. The total coke inventory increased from 887.4 million tons to 888.6 million tons, a rise of 1.2 million tons (0.1%); the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased from 976.9 million tons to 966.4 million tons, a decrease of 10.5 million tons (- 1.1%) [5]
铁矿周度发运报告-20250826
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 06:19
Group 1: Report Summary - The total global ore shipment volume this week was 301.8 (-90.8) million tons. Specifically, Australia's shipments increased month-on-month, while those from Brazil and non-mainstream countries decreased month-on-month. The domestic ore arrival volume was 2507.8 (+267.3) million tons, showing an increase in shipments and arrivals [1]. Group 2: Shipment Data Global Shipment Volume - On August 22, 2025, the global shipment volume was 3315.8 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 90.8 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 94.7 million tons [2]. Australia's Shipment Volume - On August 22, 2025, Australia's shipment volume was 1881 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 276.8 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 32.8 million tons [2]. Brazil's Shipment Volume - On August 22, 2025, Brazil's shipment volume was 811.7 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 253.8 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 49.7 million tons [2]. Non-mainstream Countries' Shipment Volume - On August 22, 2025, the shipment volume of non-mainstream countries was 2393.3 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 83.3 million tons and a year-on-year decrease of 173.6 million tons [2]. Major Mines' Shipment Volume - **Rio Tinto**: On August 22, 2025, the global shipment volume was 725.1 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 148.6 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 130.6 million tons; the shipment volume to China was 596.6 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 102.5 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 79.2 million tons [2]. - **BHP**: On August 22, 2025, the global shipment volume was 461.1 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 64.3 million tons and a year-on-year decrease of 74.7 million tons; the shipment volume to China was 385.4 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15.3 million tons and a year-on-year decrease of 73.8 million tons [2]. - **FMG**: On August 22, 2025, the global shipment volume was 435.4 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 163.9 million tons and a year-on-year decrease of 4.8 million tons; the shipment volume to China was 416.8 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 172.2 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 66.2 million tons [2]. - **VALE**: On August 22, 2025, the global shipment volume was 572.9 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 213.8 million tons and a year-on-year decrease of 43.9 million tons [2]. Australia's Shipment Proportion to China - On August 22, 2025, Australia's shipment proportion to China was 0.882, a month-on-month increase of 0.042 and a year-on-year increase of 0.042 [2].