Report Title Market Expectations Fluctuate, Treat Iron Ore Prices at High Levels with a Bearish Outlook Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, iron ore prices trended strongly, mainly driven by macro - sentiment and capital, with the previous sharp rise in non - ferrous metals also having a certain impact on iron ore prices. The supply side remains loose, and domestic steel demand is expected to continue to decline year - on - year, with mid - term demand likely to remain at a low level. In the first half of 2026, steel demand is expected to continue to decline, and the weakening of the domestic iron ore fundamentals is likely to continue, making it difficult for high iron ore valuations to persist. Overall, the recent rise in the futures market has boosted sentiment, but the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate mid - term iron ore prices. The current fundamentals of iron ore have changed significantly, and there is limited room for further price increases. In the mid - term, it is advisable to take a bearish stance with light positions at high prices [3]. - The trading strategy suggests taking a bearish stance with light positions for single - sided trading, while for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Logic Analysis**: The price of iron ore has been strong this week, with the fundamentals remaining largely unchanged. Macro - sentiment and capital are the main drivers, and the previous sharp rise in non - ferrous metals has also influenced the iron ore futures price. The supply side is in a loose situation, and domestic steel demand is expected to continue to decline year - on - year. In the mid - term, domestic demand is likely to remain at a low level. In the first half of 2026, steel demand is expected to contribute to a continuous decline, and the weakening of domestic iron ore fundamentals is likely to continue, making it difficult for high iron ore valuations to last. Although the recent rise in the futures market has boosted sentiment, the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate mid - term iron ore prices. There is limited room for further price increases, and a bearish stance with light positions at high prices is recommended in the mid - term [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, take a bearish stance with light positions at high prices; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [3]. Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply - side Analysis - **Global Iron Ore Shipment**: Global iron ore shipments remain at a high level. In 2025, the total output of the four major mines was 1.15 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% (23 million tons), with most of the increase contributed by Fortescue. The total shipment volume was 1.13 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% (12 million tons), and most of the shipment decline was contributed by Rio Tinto. In 2026, the global shipments of the four major mines are expected to increase steadily by about 15 million tons. This week, global shipments were 36.77 million tons, an increase of 2.13 million tons from last week and 1.98 million tons year - on - year [6][7]. - **Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment**: Non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore global shipments have been at a high level year - on - year. From 2023 - 2025, non - Australian and non - Brazilian mines continuously contributed increments, with an average annual increment of over 20 million tons for three consecutive years. The Simandou mining area is expected to contribute most of the increment in 2026, with an annual increment of about 20 million tons. It is still in the production ramp - up stage in 2026 [8][9]. - **Iron Ore Port Inventory**: The current total inventory of imported iron ore at domestic ports is at the highest level in the past six years, and the fundamentals remain in a loose pattern. In 2025, the total inventory of imported iron ore in China increased slightly. In the first half of the year, due to supply - side disturbances, the inventory decreased by over 10 million tons, but in the second half of the year, with the recovery of the supply side and the relatively rapid weakening of terminal demand, the inventory continued to increase, with the maximum inventory accumulation approaching 20 million tons and the annual inventory accumulation being about 10 million tons. In the first half of 2026, the loose supply pattern of global iron ore is expected to continue [10][11]. Demand - side Analysis - **Domestic Steel Demand**: In 2026, there is no expectation of an increase in domestic steel demand, and it is expected to continue the pattern of 2024 - 2025. From 2023 - 2025, overseas iron element consumption increased continuously year - on - year, with an average annual increase of over 30 million tons. The terminal steel demand structure has changed significantly in the past three years, with iron element exports (steel + billets + indirect) contributing the largest increment and volatility in terminal steel demand. However, the impact of overseas steel demand on domestic iron ore prices is transmitted relatively slowly [12][13]. Price and Spread Analysis - **Imported Iron Ore Port Price**: Various price indices and spreads of imported iron ore at ports are presented, including the Platts iron ore price index, the price difference between different iron ore products at Qingdao Port, and the relationship between steel mill cash profits and the price difference of high, medium, and low - grade iron ore powders [17][18]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Profit**: The import profits of different types of iron ore, such as PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special fines, and others, are shown [19][20]. - **Profit of East China Mainstream Steel Mills**: The cash profits of East China's threaded steel and hot - rolled coils, as well as the cost data of iron water, hot - rolled coils, steel billets, and threaded steel in East China, are provided [21][22]. - **Domestic and Overseas US Dollar Spread**: The spreads between SGX (Singapore Exchange) and DCE (Dalian Commodity Exchange) iron ore contracts, the premium rate of Singapore iron ore over domestic iron ore, and the spread between iron water and scrap steel in East China are analyzed [23][24]. - **Iron Ore Futures Basis and Inter - period Spread**: The basis of the optimal deliverable iron ore against different DCE contracts and the inter - period spreads are presented [25][26]. Shipment of Global Four Major Mines The global shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, Vale, BHP, FMG, and CSN's iron ore, as well as the arrival volume at 45 ports, are shown [27][28]. Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory The inventory data of different types of imported iron ore at ports, including powder ore, lump ore, pellet, non - trade ore, iron concentrate, and non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore, are provided [29][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The destocking of the five major steel products continued during the pre - holiday market. The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil improved, with prices forming some support at low levels. The market drivers were limited, and the spot and futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Overall, the destocking may gradually slow down, and the upward momentum of prices is insufficient. Steel prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term, but the downside space is limited. Iron ore is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, but high port inventories will put pressure on its subsequent trend. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term [3][4][5][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - During the pre - holiday market, the five major steel products continued to destock. The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil improved, and prices at low levels provided some support. The market drivers were limited, with strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the spot and futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range [9]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil both increased production. Rebar's weekly output was 188.22 tons (up 2.08% week - on - week and down 8.64% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil's weekly output was 304.51 tons (up 3.74% week - on - week and up 0.58% year - on - year). Rebar's blast furnace and electric furnace production both increased. The blast furnace weekly output was 157.49 tons (up 1.62% week - on - week and down 11.32% year - on - year), and the electric furnace weekly output was 30.73 tons (up 4.49% week - on - week and up 8.17% year - on - year) [13][17][22]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces both increased. The national blast furnace operating rate was 78.94% (up 0.79% week - on - week and up 0.29% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 68.63% (up 1.48% week - on - week and up 1.13% year - on - year) [23][27]. - **Profit**: Rebar's profit increased, while hot - rolled coil's profit slightly decreased. Rebar's profit was +48 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 38 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil's profit was - 29 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 58 yuan/ton year - on - year) [28][31]. - **Demand**: Rebar's demand slightly decreased, while hot - rolled coil's demand increased. Rebar's apparent consumption was 200.44 tons (down 1.11% week - on - week and up 5.47% year - on - year), and the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 9.66 tons (down 1.54% week - on - week and down 8.07% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil's apparent consumption was 310.77 tons (up 1.21% week - on - week and up 2.66% year - on - year) [32][36]. - **Inventory**: Rebar's inventory continued to decline, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. Rebar's factory inventory was 139.37 tons (down 0.49% week - on - week and up 14.76% year - on - year), social inventory was 282.66 tons (down 3.92% week - on - week and down 1.53% year - on - year), and total inventory was 422.03 tons (down 2.81% week - on - week and up 3.31% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil's inventory decreased, with factory inventory rising and social inventory decreasing. Factory inventory was 82.32 tons (up 2.24% week - on - week and up 0.59% year - on - year), social inventory was 288.64 tons (down 2.72% week - on - week and up 24.01% year - on - year), and total inventory was 370.96 tons (down 1.66% week - on - week and up 20.79% year - on - year) [37][41][42][46]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, both the commercial housing and land markets declined month - on - month. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 26.09% month - on - month and 16.33% year - on - year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 74.78% month - on - month and 49.44% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in November 2025, automobile production and sales continued to grow both month - on - month and year - on - year. Production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, up 5.1% and 3.2% month - on - month, and 2.8% and 3.4% year - on - year [47][49][52]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased month - on - month. The price index of iron ore was 107.92 (up 1.05% month - on - month and up 11.23% year - on - year). The shipments from Australia and Brazil were 3059.6 tons (up 8.70% month - on - month and up 23.36% year - on - year), and the arrivals at 45 ports were 2756.4 tons (up 5.96% month - on - month and down 2.75% year - on - year) [55][60]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal continued to increase, and the port clearance volume increased. The daily output of hot metal was 227.43 tons (up 0.85 tons week - on - week and up 2.23 tons year - on - year), the port clearance volume of 45 ports was 325.21 tons (up 3.22% week - on - week and up 2.18% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 31.88 days (up 0.76% week - on - week and down 9.2% year - on - year) [61][65]. - **Inventory**: Iron ore port inventories continued to reach new highs, and steel enterprises' iron ore inventories increased. The inventory at 45 ports was 15970.89 tons (up 0.71% week - on - week and up 6.45% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8949.54 tons (up 0.97% week - on - week and down 9.25% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 25.42 days (up 0.95% week - on - week and down 7.43% year - on - year) [66][70]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking coal mines decreased month - on - month, while Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 79.63% (down 5.44% month - on - month and down 10.21% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 35.09% (down 3.39% month - on - month and up 7.37% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 19.05 tons (up 49.47% month - on - month and up 33.49% year - on - year) [72][76]. - **Demand**: The transaction rate of coking coal auctions decreased month - on - month. The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 65.25% (down 4.07% month - on - month and down 4.47% year - on - year), and the weekly transaction rate was 71.74% (down 12.94% week - on - week and up 54.91% year - on - year) [77][79]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of independent coking plants slightly recovered month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate slightly increased. The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was - 14 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton month - on - month and up 2 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 70.74% (up 0.55% month - on - month and down 2.45% year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mills' coke was 85.58% (up 0.07% month - on - month and down 0.34% year - on - year) [81][85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Port inventories increased month - on - month, and coking plant inventories increased. The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 896.10 tons (up 1.42% month - on - month and up 1.02% year - on - year), the coking coal inventory of steel mills was 802.50 tons (down 0.49% month - on - month and up 3.43% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 301.3 tons (up 0.60% month - on - month and down 39.59% year - on - year) [86][91]. - **Coke Inventory**: Port inventories increased slightly, and coking plant inventories decreased. The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 48.7 tons (down 2.87% month - on - month and down 3.91% year - on - year), the coke inventory of steel mills was 643.99 tons (up 0.28% month - on - month and down 1.67% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 180.09 tons (up 1.06% month - on - month and up 4.57% year - on - year) [92][97]. - **Spot Price**: The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued. The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1500 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 70 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1340 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 220 yuan/ton year - on - year) [98][102]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar slightly shrank, and the 1 - 5 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil both shrank. The coil - to - rebar spread continued to shrink, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore shrank [104][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - For steel products, profit margins have improved, reducing the incentive for production cuts. Iron ore production has stopped declining and stabilized, with a slight increase in output. However, downstream demand is expected to weaken gradually after the festival. Currently, inventory is being depleted, but there may be inventory accumulation due to supply - demand mismatches in the future, leading to a price return to a volatile pattern [3] - For iron ore, the current fundamentals are neutral. The shipping end is slightly positive, but there is significant pressure on floating ore at sea and subsequent port - arrival pressure. On the demand side, steel mill profits have rebounded, and inventory has been continuously depleted, providing room for increased production. It is expected that iron production has bottomed out and will rebound. Inventory is high, but there is a structural shortage. Attention should be paid to policy risks. Steel mills have pre - festival inventory replenishment demand for support. Overall, the current spot market is not short of iron ore, and the fundamentals are difficult to support continuous price increases. In the short - term, prices are overbought technically, and attention should be paid to policy risks related to inventory release [22] - For coking coal and coke, the market has been affected by the "anti - monopoly" news, and the previous hype of the "anti - involution" concept has cooled down. The coking coal and coke futures have shown signs of correction. The rebound of coking coal and coke is mainly driven by the resonance of macro and industrial logic. Macro - level events have intensified concerns about the supply stability of key mineral resources, affecting multiple sectors. On the industrial side, the stabilization and rebound of downstream iron production, the strengthening of winter storage replenishment expectations, and low inventory in the spot - futures trading link support the demand side. The impact of macro sentiment on coking coal and coke prices is significantly stronger than that of industrial logic. If the macro sentiment cools down, it will be difficult to support a significant upward movement of the futures market relying solely on the improvement of demand in the black industry chain. The subsequent trend may turn into a small - range volatile pattern [32] - For ferroalloys, with the increase in production and continuous inventory accumulation, the upward momentum of price fluctuations may be suppressed, leading to a price correction. However, the downward space is limited due to cost support [48] - For soda ash, the sentiment in the commodity market has heated up, driving up low - valued varieties. Fundamentally, as the expectation of new production capacity comes into play, the expectation of oversupply in soda ash is intensifying. Recently, the cold repair of glass production lines has accelerated, further weakening the expected rigid demand for soda ash. The medium - to - long - term high - level supply expectation of soda ash remains unchanged. Photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. In November, soda ash exports were close to 190,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continued to alleviate domestic pressure to some extent. High inventory in the upstream and mid - stream restricts soda ash prices [62] - For glass, there are still some glass production line cold repairs to be implemented before the Spring Festival, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. Policy disturbances to supply cannot be ruled out. In reality, regardless of supply expectations, the high inventory in the mid - stream of glass needs to be digested, and with the terminal market entering the off - season, there is still pressure on the spot market [84] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Data**: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3,089 yuan/ton, down from 3,127 yuan/ton on January 8; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3,255 yuan/ton, down from 3,300 yuan/ton on January 8. The rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices also showed slight declines in some regions [4][9] - **Spread Data**: The rebar 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 55 yuan/ton on January 9, compared to - 41 yuan/ton on January 8; the hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 39 yuan/ton on January 9, compared to - 17 yuan/ton on January 8. The rebar - hot - rolled coil spread also showed some changes [4][16] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the 01 contract was 852 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the 05 contract was 814.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan from the previous day. The basis also showed corresponding changes [23] - **Fundamental Data**: The average daily iron production on January 9 was 229.5 tons, up 2.07 tons from the previous week; the 45 - port inventory was 16,275,260 tons, up 304,370 tons from the previous week [26] Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spread Data**: On January 9, 2026, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 83 yuan/ton, down 27.5 yuan from the previous day; the coke 09 - 01 spread was 328 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [35] - **Spot Price Data**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal remained at 1,500 yuan/ton; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 1,034 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan from the previous week [36] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On January 9, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 38 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous day; the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5,420 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 146 yuan/ton on January 9, down 62 yuan from the previous day; the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [50] Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1,228 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the 09 contract was 1,295 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [63] - **Inventory and Market Data**: The overall inventory of the upstream and mid - stream remains high, restricting price increases. In November, exports were close to 190,000 tons, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent [62] Glass - **Price Data**: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1,144 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the 09 contract was 1,238 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day [85] - **Sales and Production Data**: The sales - to - production ratio in different regions showed certain fluctuations. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on January 4 was 137, compared to 130 on January 3 [86]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak oscillation, with a daily decline of 1.10%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Supported by the positive sentiment in the commodity market, the rebar price rebounded from a low level. However, with continuous supply increase and weak demand, fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and the price in the off - season remains under pressure. The cost support is a relative positive factor. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, with a daily decline of 1.02%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the positive commodity sentiment and the strong performance of raw materials have led to a rebound of the hot - rolled coil price from a low level. But the fundamentals have not improved under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the trend will maintain an oscillating state. Be cautious of the trading logic returning to the industrial side, and pay attention to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.73%, trading volume decreased, and open interest increased. At present, the supply of iron ore is high, while the improvement of demand is limited, and the fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, so the ore price continues to be under pressure. The positive factors are the positive commodity sentiment and the pre - holiday restocking expectation. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price maintains a high - level oscillating state. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In December 2025, China's PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous month; it increased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month. The purchasing price of industrial producers decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points compared with the previous month; it increased by 0.4% month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous month. In 2025, the PPI decreased by 2.6% for the whole year, and the purchasing price of industrial producers decreased by 3.0% [7]. - The Ministry of Water Resources aims to maintain large - scale and high - level water infrastructure construction and investment in 2026, ensuring a good start for water - related work during the 15th Five - Year Plan period [8]. - The iron ore project in Amapá, Brazil, owned 35.7% by British company Cadence Minerals, has obtained a preliminary environmental permit. The project is working on restarting production, with the initial restart time expected to be in 2026. The plant is expected to produce 380,000 - 400,000 tons of iron ore concentrate annually, and the production may gradually increase to 5.5 million tons per year [9]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,260, 3,200, and 3,340 respectively, with price changes of - 30, - 10, and - 10. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270, 3,190, and 3,306 respectively, with price changes of - 20, - 20, and - 13. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,980 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,090 with no change. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 10, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,170 [10]. - The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 817 with a change of 2, the price of Tangshan iron ore concentrate was 782 with no change. The ocean freight from Australia was 7.92 (down 0.26) and from Brazil was 21.59 (down 0.46). The SGX swap price (current month) was 107.85 (down 1.00), and the Platts index (CFR) was 108.20 (down 1.05) [10]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 3,144, with a decline of 1.10%, the highest price was 3,174, the lowest was 3,128, the trading volume was 1,169,507 (down 181,095), and the open interest was 1,714,863 (down 66,939) [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract was 3,294, with a decline of 1.02%, the highest price was 3,317, the lowest was 3,274, the trading volume was 515,603 (down 181,277), and the open interest was 1,417,090 (down 23,805) [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract was 814.5, with a decline of 0.73%, the highest price was 819.0, the lowest was 809.5, the trading volume was 270,327 (down 172,278), and the open interest was 639,884 (up 3,210) [12]. 4. Related Charts - The section includes charts related to steel inventory (rebar inventory, hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (port inventory, steel mill inventory, domestic mine inventory), and steel mill production (blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization, proportion of profitable steel mills, etc.) [14][22][29]. 5. Future Outlook - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has weakened, inventory has increased significantly, and construction steel mills are resuming production. The weekly output of rebar increased by 28,200 tons month - on - month, and supply continues to rise with room for further increase. Demand continues to weaken seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 254,800 tons month - on - month. Although high - frequency trading volume has rebounded due to holiday factors, both are still at low levels in recent years. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [39]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern has changed little. Plate steel mills' production has stabilized, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 10,000 tons month - on - month. Supply continues to rise and remains at a relatively high level, and inventory is also high, so supply pressure persists. Demand has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 24,300 tons month - on - month, and daily high - frequency trading volume is at a low level. Although the high output of downstream cold - rolled products provides some support for hot - rolled coil demand, industrial contradictions are accumulating. It is expected that the price will maintain an oscillating state, and attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and inventory continues to rise. Steel mills are resuming production, and the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded from a low level, but the overall increase is small. The improvement space of ore demand is limited, and the positive effect is not strong. Port arrivals have increased, and miner shipments have declined from a high level. Overseas ore supply is high, and domestic ore supply is shrinking, so the overall supply pressure remains. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillating state under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment shows that the US Congress Budget Office expects the Fed to cut interest rates slightly this year, and the central bank in China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The industry situation indicates that after the holiday, more steel mills' blast furnaces resumed production, iron - water output increased, and the spot supply of iron ore was relatively stable. Although the port inventory exceeded 170 million tons, the in - plant inventory remained at a low level, and the firm spot price still supported the futures price. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions in the I2605 contract after a correction, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Summary Price - As of the close on January 9, the futures price of the iron ore main contract was 814.5 (+25) yuan/ton, and the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 (+20) yuan/dry ton [5]. Shipment - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 32.137 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.634 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 27.427 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.169 million tons [5]. Arrival - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.247 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 969,000 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 27.564 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.55 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 15.129 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.823 million tons [5]. Demand - The daily average iron - water output was 2.295 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 51,300 tons [5]. Inventory - As of January 9, 2026, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 170.4444 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.2265 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 13.2848 million tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 89.8959 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 430,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 10.8449 million tons [5]. Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 37.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.99 percentage points [5]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price - This week, the I2605 contract fluctuated strongly. The price of the I2605 contract was stronger than that of the I2609 contract. On the 9th, the price difference was 21.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan/ton [12]. Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On January 9, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1,600, a week - on - week increase of 300. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the iron ore futures contract was 20,258, an increase of 1,592 compared with the previous week [19]. Spot Price - On January 9, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was reported at 869 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 9th, the basis was 55 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [25]. 3. Industry Situation Arrival Volume - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, while the arrival volume at 47 ports, 45 ports, and six northern ports in China increased [28]. Port Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 170.4444 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.2265 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3696 million tons, a decrease of 325,000 tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore increased by 1.1419 million tons, the inventory of Brazilian ore increased by 916,500 tons, and the inventory of traded ore increased by 3.3529 million tons [32]. Steel Mill Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills in China was 89.8959 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 430,500 tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills was 2.8328 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 261,000 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.73 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 days [32]. Inventory Availability Days - As of January 8, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized steel mills in China was 19 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1 day. On January 8, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,718, a week - on - week decrease of 159 [36]. Import Volume and Mine Capacity Utilization - In November 2025, China's import of iron ore and its concentrates was 110.54 million tons, a decrease of 769,000 tons compared with October, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.139202 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate of 266 sample mines was 58.76%, a decrease of 1.41% compared with the previous period; the daily average output of fine powder was 371,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89,000 tons; the inventory was 461,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 133,000 tons [39]. Domestic Iron Ore Concentrate Output - In November 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 83.028 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to November, the cumulative output was 923.622 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In November, the output of iron ore concentrates from 433 iron ore mining enterprises in China was 22.811 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 129,000 tons, a decrease of 0.6%; from January to November, the cumulative output was 252.471 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.576 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% [42]. 4. Downstream Situation Crude Steel Output - In November 2025, China's crude steel output was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. From January to November, the cumulative crude steel output was 891.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0% [45]. Steel Exports - In November 2025, China's steel exports were 9.98 million tons, an increase of 198,000 tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 2.0%; a year - on - year increase of 7.6%, turning from a decline to an increase. From January to November 2025, the cumulative steel exports were 107.717 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%, and the growth rate rebounded by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month [45]. Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Iron - Water Output - On January 9, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.80 percentage points. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 2.295 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 51,300 tons [48]. 5. Options Market - The high iron ore port inventory and the correction of finished products will limit the rebound space of ore prices, but the overall spot price remains firm, which will still support the futures price in the medium and long term. It is recommended to consider buying call options on the I2605 contract after adjustment [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with an emerging inventory accumulation trend. The future supply is expected to continue to recover, and the height of inventory accumulation will determine the spring market [1]. - The iron ore market has intensifying supply - demand contradictions, with a significant increase in overall inventory. The price is currently in high - level oscillation, but there is a downward risk once the negotiation results are out [3]. - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both rising, and the inventory continues to increase. Coke is expected to maintain an oscillatory operation in the short term, and the supply - demand of coking coal remains relatively loose [5][6]. - The Indonesian reduction in coal supply has led to a steady increase in port coal prices. The thermal coal price is oscillating strongly in the short term, and the long - term supply pattern remains loose [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures market rose and then fell yesterday. The spot market was weak, with a national building material turnover of 83,800 tons. This week, rebar production increased and inventory accumulated, while consumption declined; hot - rolled coil production increased but inventory decreased, and consumption also dropped [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: There are currently no contradictions in the steel supply - demand fundamentals. Supply has recovered month - on - month, consumption has declined, and inventory shows seasonal accumulation. The futures market reflects long - term expectations, while the spot market is relatively rational. The cost is generally stable, and enterprises maintain certain profits. Future supply is expected to continue to recover, and the height of inventory accumulation will determine the spring market [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, or options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price oscillated slightly yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported ore varieties were weaker, and the Platts Index was slightly adjusted downwards. This week, iron ore inventory continued to accumulate, port inventory increased significantly, steel mills replenished inventory slightly, and the amount of stranded cargoes in ports increased [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is intensifying, with a large increase in overall inventory and a slight improvement in downstream replenishment willingness. Due to the locked - in liquidity of some port supplies and uncertainties in long - term actual supply, the market gives a high valuation to iron ore prices. Once the negotiation results are out, the supply - demand contradiction will be exposed, and the price will face a downward risk. In the short term, the actual inventory pressure is limited, and the price will maintain high - level oscillation with future steel mill resumption and replenishment [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, or options [4]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated yesterday. The coke market was stable, and the expectation of further price reduction weakened significantly. The sentiment in the coking coal market improved, and some terminal procurement plans were advanced. The price of some Mongolian 5 coking coal spot has risen to 1,010 - 1,035 yuan/ton. This week, coking coal supply recovered, inventory continued to increase, and demand improved due to the resumption of hot metal production [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After the New Year's Day, with the resumption of blast furnaces and the winter storage replenishment of steel mills before the Spring Festival, the demand for coke is expected to improve. In the short term, coke will maintain an oscillatory operation benefiting from the rise in raw coal prices. The supply - demand of coking coal remains relatively loose. Although the rigid demand for coking coal has improved with the resumption of steel mills after the New Year's Day, the supply of coking coal has recovered relatively quickly, and the inventory accumulation trend has not been alleviated. The change in production - capacity increase in the origin needs further verification [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke strategies are to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, or options [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, coal prices accelerated to rise. Chemical customers had good rigid demand, high - calorie coal had good sales, but power plant demand was weak, and traders were cautious in procurement. In ports, the inventory of northern ports decreased rapidly recently, and due to the inverted shipping cost, upstream suppliers were less willing to sell at low prices. Indonesia reduced its coal production quota for 2026 and will retroactively collect this year's tariffs [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The daily consumption of thermal coal has improved, and the supply in the production area is gradually recovering. The coal price is oscillating strongly. In the long term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and replenishment of non - thermal coal [7]. - **Strategy**: Not provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices fluctuated within a range, with this week's data showing increased production, accumulated inventory, and a significant decline in apparent demand. The current demand is in a seasonal off - peak, while steel mill production has rebounded from a low level, resulting in increased supply and decreased demand, and inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. Before the Spring Festival, steel usually accumulates inventory seasonally. The decline in the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is not significant, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory accumulation is lower than expected. The raw materials, coking coal and iron ore, support steel prices due to strong supply - side expectations. The fluctuation range of rebar is expected to be between 3000 - 3200, and that of hot - rolled coils between 3150 - 3350 [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is expected to transition from a situation of loose supply and demand to a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is suppressed by high inventory on the upside and supported by the expectation of steel mill restocking on the downside, and it is expected to maintain high - level volatility. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment, policy expectations, and the rhythm of steel mill restocking. In the long term, negotiation situations should be monitored. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the recommended strategy is range - bound trading, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - For coke, the futures market saw a peak - to - fall trend, while the spot market is weakly stable. After the fourth round of price cuts, some coke enterprises are resisting further price cuts and implementing production restrictions to maintain prices. The supply is recovering, and the demand is increasing as steel mills resume production after the New Year. The overall inventory is slightly increasing in the middle position, and the supply - demand situation has improved. The recommended strategy is to go short on the spot at high prices on a light - position basis and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal. For coking coal, the futures market continued to rise, and the spot market also showed a mixed performance. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is increasing as steel mills reduce losses and increase production. The overall inventory is slightly increasing in the middle position. The recommended strategy is to go short on the spot at high prices on a light - position basis and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - For ferrosilicon, the futures price dropped significantly, mainly affected by market sentiment. The supply is at a historically neutral - low level, with some potential for short - term increase. The demand from the steel - making industry has some support, and the non - steel demand, such as from the metal magnesium industry, is also strong. The cost is relatively stable, and the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 5500 - 6200. For silicomanganese, the futures price also decreased. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand from the steel - making industry is increasing. The manganese ore price provides support for the silicomanganese price. The supply - demand situation is in a state of slight oversupply but with overall balance in manganese elements. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the recommended strategy is range - bound trading, with a reference range of 5800 - 6300 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices showed different trends. For example, rebar in North China increased by 30 yuan/ton, while hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets and slab remained unchanged, while the cost of Jiangsu's electric - arc furnace and converter rebar increased slightly. The profit of rebar in South China increased by 48, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in North China increased by 5 [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.6 to 229.0, a 0.7% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 3.4 to 818.6, a 0.4% increase. The rebar output increased by 2.8 to 191.0, a 1.5% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 21.8 to 1253.9, a 1.8% increase. The rebar inventory increased by 16.1 to 438.1, a 3.8% increase, while the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.8 to 368.1, a 0.8% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 4.2 to 8.4, a 33.1% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 44.2 to 796.8, a 5.3% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 25.5 to 175.0, a 12.7% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, and the basis of the 05 - contract for different iron ore powders increased. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 2.5 to 21.0, a 10.6% decrease, while the 1 - 5 spread increased by 34.0 to 45.0, a 309.1% increase [4]. Supply - The global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 463.4 to 3213.7, a 12.6% decrease, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 76.9 to 11054.0, a 0.7% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.8 to 227.4, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 10.2 to 325.2, a 3.2% increase [4]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 45 ports increased by 41.8 to 15970.89, a 0.3% increase, and the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills increased by 86.4 to 8946.5, a 1.0% increase [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) increased by 11, a 0.7% increase [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi's medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) increased by 33, a 2.8% increase [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.9 to 63.6, a 1.4% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.9, a 0.1% increase [6]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory remained basically unchanged, with the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreasing by 5.5 to 86.1, a 6.0% decrease, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increasing by 1.7 to 645.7, a 0.3% increase [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The price of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. For example, the ferrosilicon 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia decreased from 5750.0 to 5350.0, and the silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia increased from 5300.0 to 5650.0 [7]. Cost and Profit - The cost of some manganese ores increased slightly, and the production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased significantly [7]. Supply - The production of ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the production of silicomanganese decreased by 0.3 to 19.1 [7]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese from the steel - making industry increased slightly [7]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of ferrosilicon in 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.5 to 6.9, a 7.1% increase, and the inventory of silicomanganese in 63 sample enterprises decreased by 1.1 to 38.3, a 2.8% decrease [7].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the steel market, the supply - demand situation is weak during the consumption off - season. Steel mill production may continue to decline due to falling margins and the off - season. Although macro - level confidence is enhanced, market supervision actions have an impact on market sentiment. For the iron ore market, demand may decline seasonally, supply remains high, and the rising price of coking coal and coke supports iron ore prices [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Last week, threaded steel production increased, overall inventory continued to decline, and apparent demand decreased. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased overall, inventory increased, and production increased slightly. Steel mill production may continue to decline due to falling margins and the consumption off - season. Winter storage is still some time away [2]. - **Market Sentiment**: Macro - level confidence has been enhanced, with the stock market rising strongly and positive policy expectations boosting confidence. However, the market supervision action has affected market sentiment [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading. Avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - **Data Summary**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract was 3168 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or 0.60% from the previous day and up 46 yuan or 1.47% from the previous week. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 78.32%, down 0.15 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 227.43 million tons, up 0.85 million tons or 0.38% from the previous week [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Last week, the overall production of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand decreased. The market is still in the off - season, and molten iron production is likely to decline seasonally. The restocking demand before the Spring Festival will come later this year. On the supply side, global shipments remain high, and the rising port inventory suppresses futures prices. The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports iron ore prices [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract is strongly supported by the 10 - day moving average, and a mid - term upward trend is emerging [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [3]. - **Data Summary**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 813 yuan/dry ton, down 15.0 yuan or 1.81% from the previous day and up 23.5 yuan or 2.98% from the previous week. The overseas iron ore shipment volume from Australia was 1698.5 million tons, down 207.0 million tons or 10.86% from the previous week [4]. 3.3. Industry News - As of the week of January 8, threaded steel production increased for the fourth consecutive week, factory and social inventories turned from decreasing to increasing, and apparent demand decreased for the third consecutive week. The social inventory of threaded steel was 290.18 million tons, an increase of 7.52 million tons or 2.66% from the previous week. The apparent demand for threaded steel was 174.96 million tons, a decrease of 25.48 million tons or 12.71% from the previous week [7]. - As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes or 2.37% from the previous week and an increase of 27.04% from the same period last year. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days from the previous period [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the demand aspect, due to environmental protection restrictions, concentrated maintenance, and the off - season of demand, domestic steel mills' production contracted significantly in December. The average daily hot metal output of blast furnaces decreased to about 2.28 million tons. Although the profit margin of steel mills improved slightly, it remained at a low level. The pre - holiday raw material replenishment by steel mills may provide short - term support for iron ore prices, but it cannot change the pattern of loose supply due to weak terminal demand [3][45]. - In the supply aspect, global iron ore supply was strong in December, with the shipment volume reaching a new high for the year. Australia and Brazil made significant contributions, and the arrival volume in China remained high. Attention should be paid to potential supply disruptions caused by the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere in the first quarter. Port iron ore inventories have accumulated to a historically high level for the same period, while steel mills' inventories remained low. Constrained by profits and demand, inventory replenishment is mainly rigid and on - demand, with a moderate intensity [3][45]. - In the next month, pressure on iron ore futures prices will still exist, and the overall center is expected to move down in a fluctuating manner. On the demand side, factors such as environmental protection, seasonal off - season, and concentrated maintenance of steel mills restrict the significant increase of hot metal output. On the supply side, it remains loose. Based on the end - of - last - year rush, the arrival pressure in January continues, and port inventories are expected to continue to accumulate. The potential impact of the Southern Hemisphere's rainy season on shipments in the first quarter needs to be monitored. Constrained by the overall weak terminal demand, the intensity of steel mills' pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment may be limited, and the impact on prices is expected to be more short - term. The expected fluctuation range is 740 - 860 yuan/ton [3][45][47]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In December, the iron ore market first declined and then rose, showing an overall fluctuating and slightly stronger trend. At the beginning of the month, due to the disappointment of policy expectations and the continuous reduction of hot metal production, the price of the main contract quickly fell after approaching the pressure level of 800 yuan/ton. Subsequently, supported by the low - level hot metal output, the resilience of steel exports, and the inventory replenishment expectation of steel mills with low inventories, the price rebounded and once exceeded 800 yuan/ton [7]. - In terms of fundamentals, the supply side was in the peak shipping season. The global shipping volume increased to 36.77 million tons month - on - month, with Australia and Brazil contributing an increase of 2.44 million tons. The arrival volume was 26.01 million tons, at a historical high. On the demand side, the average daily hot metal output was 2.28 million tons, remaining flat month - on - month but at a historical low. The profitability of steel mills improved slightly within the month, but the off - season and major maintenance restricted the resumption of production. In terms of inventory, port inventories accumulated to 158.5866 million tons, an increase of 3.46 million tons month - on - month. Although the equity ore inventory of steel mills was at a low level, short - term inventory replenishment was limited [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Steel Mill Start - up Contraction, Focus on Inventory Replenishment Rhythm Before the Festival - In December, domestic steel mills' production showed an overall contraction trend, mainly affected by environmental protection restrictions, year - end concentrated maintenance, and the off - season of demand. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces was about 2.28 million tons, a decrease of nearly 70,000 tons month - on - month, at a historically low level for the same period. The weekly average output of five major steel products decreased by 420,000 tons month - on - month, with a significant reduction in construction steel such as rebar, reflecting the characteristic of structural supply contraction [10]. - The decline in production was mainly due to three factors: continuous production restrictions under the constraints of autumn and winter environmental protection policies, the entry of steel mills into the concentrated maintenance period after high - yield throughout the year, and the traditional off - season of terminal demand, with weak orders in industries such as construction and automobiles, and the pressure of social inventories leading steel mills to actively adjust production to ease the supply - demand contradiction [10]. - Before the Spring Festival, steel mills' production is expected to remain in a "weak and stable" state. Constrained by the traditional off - season of terminal demand and year - end concentrated maintenance, hot metal output is unlikely to increase significantly and may continue to fluctuate around the daily level of 2.25 million tons. The pre - holiday raw material replenishment by steel mills may provide short - term support for iron ore, but due to weak terminal demand, the intensity of replenishment may be limited, and it is difficult to change the current pattern of loose supply [11]. 2.2 End - of - Year Rush in Overseas Ore Shipments - In December, global iron ore supply was strong. Major mines concentrated on shipping at the end of the year, pushing the global iron ore shipment volume to a new high for the year. The total global iron ore shipment volume increased by 2.126 million tons month - on - month to 36.771 million tons, at a historically high level for the same period. Australia and Brazil shipped a total of 30.596 million tons, an increase of 2.448 million tons month - on - month. Australia's shipment volume was 21.137 million tons, an increase of 1.631 million tons month - on - month, and the iron ore shipped to China increased by 1.73 million tons to 18.676 million tons. Brazil's shipment volume also increased by 818,000 tons month - on - month to 9.459 million tons [18]. - The high shipment volume also raised the expectation of subsequent arrivals. Although the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports in China decreased slightly by 453,000 tons month - on - month to 26.014 million tons last month, it remained at a historically high level for the same period. According to the shipping rhythm, the arrival volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the next two weeks. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere on shipments in the first quarter [19]. 2.3 Iron Ore Port Inventories - In December, iron ore port inventories continued to accumulate. The inventory at the 45 ports increased by 3.4603 million tons month - on - month to 158.5866 million tons, at a historically high level for the same period. The main reason for the inventory accumulation was the relatively high arrival volume during the shipping peak season, combined with the low port clearance volume during the year - end off - season. Although the average daily port clearance volume increased slightly, it was difficult to offset the arrival pressure [33]. - In terms of structure, the inventory of trade ore increased to 103.6761 million tons. The inventory of Australian ore increased by 4.11 million tons month - on - month to 69.4126 million tons, while the inventory of Brazilian ore decreased by 1.65 million tons to 56.6956 million tons. Lump ore, pellets, and fines accumulated 1.08 million tons, 610,000 tons, and 2.99 million tons respectively. The high port inventory reflects the phased supply - demand relaxation [33]. 2.4 Steel Mill Inventory Situation - In December, steel mills' iron ore inventories remained at a low level. As of the end of the month, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 88.6019 million tons, a slight increase of 1.3624 million tons month - on - month, still at a historically low level for the same period. In the context of weak off - season demand and continuous pressure on profits, steel mills generally adopted a low - inventory strategy to control capital occupation and procurement risks [37]. - The proportion of in - plant inventory in steel mills was not high, and the average available days of iron ore remained at about 31 days, in a relatively low normal range, reflecting that steel mills were cautious about the subsequent demand recovery and their procurement behavior was mainly on - demand, lacking the motivation for large - scale inventory building. Although there was a rigid demand for inventory replenishment at the end of the year, due to weak terminal orders, poor sales of finished products, and limited profit repair space, the actual intensity of inventory replenishment was relatively moderate [37]. 2.5 Domestic Mine Production Situation - In December, domestic mine production showed a seasonal decline at the end of the year. The iron concentrate output of 186 mining enterprises was 434,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons month - on - month and 30,000 tons year - on - year; the output of 126 mining enterprises was 371,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons month - on - month and 13,000 tons year - on - year. At the end of the year, some mines completed their annual production and sales targets, and more mines reduced or stopped production. In terms of regions, the output of major production areas such as North China, Northeast China, and East China all declined to varying degrees [41]. - From January to November 2025, China's iron ore production totaled 923.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The cumulative production in the main production areas of Hebei and Liaoning was 407.72 million tons and 160.5 million tons respectively, with a decline of 11% and 4% respectively, which were the main sources of the iron ore reduction. The production in Sichuan increased by 12% year - on - year to 96.32 million tons [41]. 2.6 Shipping Freight Situation - In December, shipping freight rates generally declined. As of December 31, the freight rate for the route from Dampier, Australia to Qingdao was reported at $8.59/ton, a month - on - month decrease of $3.42/ton and a year - on - year increase of $2.17/ton, with a growth rate of 34%; the freight rate for the route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was reported at $22.66/ton, a month - on - month decrease of $2.37/ton and a year - on - year increase of $5.47/ton, with a growth rate of 32% [44]. - In 2025, iron ore shipping freight rates increased significantly. At the beginning of the year, affected by the contraction of global shipping trade volume and high port inventories in China, market sentiment was low, and freight rates were at a low level. With the seasonal recovery of demand, freight rates started to rebound fluctuatingly. In the second half of the year, driven by the strong export of Brazilian iron ore and the significant increase in China's import demand, shipping freight rates continued to strengthen [44]. 3. Market Outlook - Demand side: Affected by environmental protection restrictions, concentrated maintenance, and the off - season of demand, domestic steel mills' production contracted significantly in December. The average daily hot metal output of blast furnaces decreased to about 2.28 million tons, steel production decreased, and the reduction in construction steel was particularly prominent. The profit margin of steel mills improved slightly but remained at a low level. The pre - holiday raw material replenishment by steel mills may provide short - term support for iron ore prices, but it is difficult to change the pattern of loose supply due to weak terminal demand [45]. - Supply side: In December, global iron ore supply was strong, with the shipment volume reaching a new high for the year. Australia and Brazil made significant contributions, and mainstream mines such as Rio Tinto and Vale, as well as non - mainstream regions, all actively rushed to ship. The arrival volume in China remained high. Attention should be paid to potential supply disruptions caused by the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere in the first quarter. Port iron ore inventories have accumulated to a historically high level for the same period, while steel mills' inventories remained low. Constrained by profits and demand, inventory replenishment is mainly rigid and on - demand, with a moderate intensity. High port inventories suppress the willingness to purchase, but low steel mill inventories also limit the downward space of ore prices [45]. - In the next month, pressure on iron ore futures prices will still exist, and the overall center is expected to move down in a fluctuating manner. On the demand side, factors such as environmental protection, seasonal off - season, and concentrated maintenance of steel mills restrict the significant increase of hot metal output. On the supply side, it remains loose. Based on the end - of - last - year rush, the arrival pressure in January continues, and port inventories are expected to continue to accumulate. The potential impact of the Southern Hemisphere's rainy season on shipments in the first quarter needs to be monitored. Constrained by the overall weak terminal demand, the intensity of steel mills' pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment may be limited, and the impact on prices is expected to be more short - term. The expected fluctuation range is 740 - 860 yuan/ton [45][47].